Why Not JBJ?

Buzzkill Pauley · Jun 20, 2015

Todd Benzinger said:
Given that Rusney is a bust so far, and they are playing De Aza, why the heck don't they call up JBJ who can certainly field better than anyone else, and who might just figure out how to bring his solid AAA bat with him if given an actual shot?

I really don't get the plan and the insistence that Bradley is not in their plans.

Clearly, Farrell doesn't think JBJ gives the team its best chance to win on any given day.

Unless maybe the team is facing a knuckleballer, Sonny Gray or Felix Hernandez.

MuzzyField · Jun 20, 2015

Buzzkill Pauley said:
Clearly, Farrell doesn't think JBJ gives the team its best chance to win on any given day.

Unless maybe the team is facing a knuckleballer, Sonny Gray or Felix Hernandez.

And I don't think Ferrell gives the team its best chance to win. I'm looking forward to watching this sort out.

Rasputin · Jun 20, 2015

I'd it that hard to understand that getting him consistent at bats at a level they know he can hit is part of the plan?

I mean, before the season, how many of you had JBJ in the plans for the majors at all?

And now you think 46 games is enough to prove the plan useless?

SeoulSoxFan · Jun 20, 2015

Rasputin said:
I'd it that hard to understand that getting him consistent at bats at a level they know he can hit is part of the plan?

I mean, before the season, how many of you had JBJ in the plans for the majors at all?

And now you think 46 games is enough to prove the plan useless?

This is my take, but a cautious one (certainty complicated by the age & $$$ invested in Rusney.)

If there's a longer plan ahead for JBJ, then fine. If Farrell simply has written JBJ off for this year (and beyond?), then not so much.

Yelling At Clouds · Jun 20, 2015

Rasputin said:
I'd it that hard to understand that getting him consistent at bats at a level they know he can hit is part of the plan?

I mean, before the season, how many of you had JBJ in the plans for the majors at all?

And now you think 46 games is enough to prove the plan useless?

You might be right. You are probably right.

But if that was the plan, why call him up at all? Farrell even said at the time that he'd be serving in a "bench role." Calling him up at the end of April (which would mean abandoning the "get him regular ABs at AAA" plan far sooner than 46 games) only for Farrell (somewhat famously at this point) to only start him against two of the best pitchers in the AL and a knuckleballer and even going so far as to start Daniel Nava ahead of him in Fenway's right field against two RH starting pitchers is enough smoke to make the claim that the manager doesn't trust him to seem at least plausible.

EDIT: He's apparently been up and down twice already this year, which even more strongly suggests to me that there is some difference of opinion somewhere about the guy.

Cellar-Door · Jun 20, 2015

Danny_Darwin said:
You might be right. You are probably right.

But if that was the plan, why call him up at all? Farrell even said at the time that he'd be serving in a "bench role." Calling him up at the end of April (which would mean abandoning the "get him regular ABs at AAA" plan far sooner than 46 games) only for Farrell (somewhat famously at this point) to only start him against two of the best pitchers in the AL and a knuckleballer and even going so far as to start Daniel Nava ahead of him in Fenway's right field against two RH starting pitchers is enough smoke to make the claim that the manager doesn't trust him to seem at least plausible.

EDIT: He's apparently been up and down twice already this year, which even more strongly suggests to me that there is some difference of opinion somewhere about the guy.

when he came up they needed a body, preferably one who could back up CF, De Aza wasn't on the roster yet and Rusney and Vic were hurt or rehabbing if I remember correctly.

Yelling At Clouds · Jun 20, 2015

Cellar-Door said:
when he came up they needed a body, preferably one who could back up CF, De Aza wasn't on the roster yet and Rusney and Vic were hurt or rehabbing if I remember correctly.

The first time he was recalled was for a day when they needed a body, yes. The second time more or less coincided with Victorino's brief return. Bradley was called up on May 10, Vic activated the 11th. He played his last game on the 19th and wasn't sent down until the 22nd (Castillo was recalled to take his place).

Don Buddin's GS · Jun 22, 2015

Tim Healey at Sports on Earth with a strong argument for the Sox to recall JBJ and send Rusney to Pawtucket:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/131665794/boston-red-sox-should-promote-jackie-bradley-jr

jscola85 · Jun 22, 2015

JBJ is pretty much the ideal 4th OF for this team, able to replace Hanley in the late innings, be a pinch runner for guys like Papi, Hanley and Sandoval, and get some starts against tough righties in the OF. If Rusney didn't have a $75M contract it would be hard to come up with a rational explanation for him being up in the majors over JBJ.

Bradley's minor league numbers are really not looking all that fluky either. Good BB rate, manageable strikeout rate, solid ISO, and a BABIP that's high but not outrageous.

Harry Hooper · Jun 22, 2015

Todd Benzinger said:
Well, I wouldn't want them to call him up to be a 4th OF. He certainly needs regular Abs, and not just against the toughest righties.

But should De Aza/Rusney really start over him?

Maybe they still just ready to make JBJ the starter, with Holt earning ABs and Shane/Nava possibily back at some point...

But is the De Aza/Rusney combo really starting over JBJ, or was it just a matter of the primary RF (Holt) had to be lent to the IF for a few days? Is is good to have JBJ come up and start 2 games/week?

As for Healey's article, the conclusion doesn't work out, see bolded comments:

The worst-case scenario is Bradley falls on his face and whatever trade value he holds right now disappears. Agreed

This would be bad for the Red Sox, obviously, and the fear of this happening could be what's preventing them from giving him another look. But at least they wouldn't have to wonder "What if?" What If? Is he a FA at the end of this season?

In reality, a Bradley promotion would likely result in something between that and him tearing the cover off the ball. Debatable, but OK.. Such is life. If he can do better than his sub-.200 average from last year -- say, in the neighborhood of .240 -- some front office would be happy to have his glove on the 25-man roster. True, but it's highly doubtful said club will then give the Sox anything for JBJ.

Bradley is already 25 years old. He's shown he can demolish Triple-A pitching. His glove is among the best in the game. There comes a point when a guy has nothing else to prove in -- or gain by staying in -- the Minors. Bradley has reached that point. The player's interest and his team's interest don't necessarily move in lockstep.

chrisfont9 · Jun 22, 2015

Todd Benzinger said:
Between the article and the Rusney thread, there seems to be a rough consensus that the Sox are holding JBJ in AAA for fear of spoiling his trade value, the idea being that if he comes back up, and falls flat, his value shrinks to almost nothing.' The implication is that the Sox do not care to give him another shot, and are intent on a trade.

But I don't buy that. JBJ's greatest value to the Sox is as a potential above-average to star level OFer for the years until he hits FA. He has an established track record as a tip-top defender, and the profile in the minors as a guy who has hit at every level. Given the elite D, all he has to do is be a competent mlb hitter and he is above-average immediately.

Plenty of guys struggle to adjust to MLB, especially in the current era. I think it is penny-wise, pound-foolish to try to disguise his obvious downside. Other teams will discount him as a player who is trapped in the minors by an FO that doesn't believe in him. It's obvious what's going on.

I hope what they are really doing is giving him time to consolidate his improvements to his approach before coming back up. But I am worried that the real problem is that he is in JF's doghouse.

This. If the thinking is that the organization needs to stop rushing him for the sake of his development, fine by me. But at this point, who the hell knows?

nvalvo · Jun 22, 2015

I suspect they have a PA target for Bradley. It's not as if they haven't noticed that he's tearing up AAA while the big club's RF situation has been a sinkhole.

Mighty Joe Young · Jun 22, 2015

nvalvo said:
I suspect they have a PA target for Bradley. It's not as if they haven't noticed that he's tearing up AAA while the big club's RF situation has been a sinkhole.

Yep. The general SOSH consensus over the winter seemed to be that Bradley needed a good half season at Pawtucket to re-establish his offensive game. He was as bad in AAA last year (after he was sent down) as he was in Boston.

Well .. Nearly three months into the AAA season and he has done just that. I don't think another six weeks is going to make much difference.

So .. I suppose there are two schools of thought on this.

1) BC and Co. think Bradley has some fatal flaw which will forever preclude him from becoming an average offensive player in the Show. Bear in mind "average offense" plus his defensive ability = star. If that is the case he's out the door come the trading deadline.

2) they think he's done enough in Pawtucket and will be up for good in a week to two and will be given a real shot .. In other words the starting RF/CF for 200-300 ABs. This will either result in Nava/Victorino being cut (the old too many OFs problem) or Castillo to AAA (the likely scenario given Farrell's reluctance to play him)

I'm really hoping for #2 . It's going to be really painfull watching him blossom for some other (Oakland, I'm looking at you) team.

Savin Hillbilly · Jun 22, 2015

BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
1) BC and Co. think Bradley has some fatal flaw which will forever preclude him from becoming an average offensive player in the Show. Bear in mind "average offense" plus his defensive ability = star. If that is the case he's out the door come the trading deadline.

2) they think he's done enough in Pawtucket and will be up for good in a week to two and will be given a real shot .. In other words the starting RF/CF for 200-300 ABs. This will either result in Nava/Victorino being cut (the old too many OFs problem) or Castillo to AAA (the likely scenario given Farrell's reluctance to play him)

I'm guessing that the answer is "1a"--not a "fatal flaw" exactly but an unfinished checklist item, some hump the organization thinks he needs to get over before he's promoted for real again. He could be getting great results but not convincing the brass that he's solved the key problem(s).

MikeM · Jun 22, 2015

Savin Hillbilly said:
I'm guessing that the answer is "1a"--not a "fatal flaw" exactly but an unfinished checklist item, some hump the organization thinks he needs to get over before he's promoted for real again. He could be getting great results but not convincing the brass that he's solved the key problem(s).

Growing doubts on Castillo's offensive potential and/or them being perfectly content with their projections on keeping Mookie in center could also play into it as well.

I mean i get people like to drool over the defensive potential of a Betts/Bradley/Castillo trio, but it's not like we are some small market team that tends to corner ourselves into a scenario where we have to make the pieces already in house fit. As a corner outfielder, i'm just not really feeling Bradley as the "potential above-average to star level OFer for the years until he hits FA" type here.

Even if Hanley does make the shift to first for 2016, i still think we'd end up shopping for a corner outfielder who offers better offensive balance to the lineup.

Toe Nash · Jun 23, 2015

Wouldn't Bradley play center and Mookie left if Castillo becomes the FT starter in right? Mookie's bat can carry the position and while you limit the impact of his defense a bit, he'd still have impact there.

If Bradley is our best defensive outfielder, he should be in center.

semsox · Jun 23, 2015

Toe Nash said:
Wouldn't Bradley play center and Mookie left if Castillo becomes the FT starter in right? Mookie's bat can carry the position and while you limit the impact of his defense a bit, he'd still have impact there.

If Bradley is our best defensive outfielder, he should be in center.

I think this is one of the more pressing questions regarding JBJ's continued role in the organization. If he is able to translate his success from the minors into the majors (for the record, I am bullish on this fact given his peripherals) and is given a starting role going forward with the team, that role should be as the CFer. However, if he comes up and craps the bed again while playing CF, then you've basically thrown Betts defensive development off track.

I agree with you overall though. Mookie's bat can play in RF or CF. JBJ (if he hits) will have a much lower offensive ceiling, but is clearly the better defensive outfielder. Assuming both Rusney and JBJ hit on their potential, I would love to see a Castillo/Bradley/Betts defensive outfield alignment.

LahoudOrBillyC · Jun 23, 2015

The Red Sox dicked with Ellsbury's development, shifting him to play Cameron. They dicked with Bogaerts development, shifting him to play Drew. For the love of God leave Betts in CF for 18 years.

Savin Hillbilly · Jun 23, 2015

LahoudOrBillyC said:
The Red Sox dicked with Ellsbury's development, shifting him to play Cameron. They dicked with Bogaerts development, shifting him to play Drew. For the love of God leave Betts in CF for 18 years.

Apples and oranges. Ellsbury came through the minors as a CF. Bogaerts came through the minors as a SS. Betts came through the minors as a 2B. They've already "dicked with his development" by moving him to the OF in the first place far more than they would by moving him around the OF.

I think the more important point is that if Betts is capable of playing average-or-better defensive CF (and it looks that way) then having his bat there is a tremendous asset. It would make more sense to trade JBJ and acquire more of a bat-first (but defensively competent) guy for LF if we're sure Hanley can't cut it there. Or keep JBJ around as a 4th OF if we don't think his bat will ever let him start.

LahoudOrBillyC · Jun 23, 2015

They had an opening and put Betts there. He is playing like a star. I see no benefit to take your 22-year-old star and asking him to learn another new position.

moondog80 · Jun 23, 2015

LahoudOrBillyC said:
They had an opening and put Betts there. He is playing like a star. I see no benefit to take your 22-year-old star and asking him to learn another new position.

Is the concern that moving Betts from CF to LF would hurt him at the plate and/or cause him to struggle on LF? Because in a vacuum, Betts in LF and JBJ in CF is a better than the other way around.

Toe Nash · Jun 23, 2015

LahoudOrBillyC said:
They had an opening and put Betts there. He is playing like a star. I see no benefit to take your 22-year-old star and asking him to learn another new position.

He played RF as well last year and as already mentioned came up as a 2B. Maybe don't do it mid-season, but I think he can handle moving to LF if that is the best thing for the team.

There's also not a huge difference between LF and CF...how many players have moved between them? I think Hanley is the outlier as someone who can't move to what should be an easier position.

Did they really "dick with" Ellsbury's development by moving him to LF for what ended up being 70 games? He hit and fielded pretty well in 08 when he was shifting positions and he has had a fine career outside of injuries. Bogaerts I'll give you, but SS to 3B midseason is a much bigger change than CF to LF.

Anyway, this is all in an ideal world where both Castillo and JBJ deserve starting roles. Otherwise JBJ just plays RF.

nvalvo · Jun 23, 2015

BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Yep. The general SOSH consensus over the winter seemed to be that Bradley needed a good half season at Pawtucket to re-establish his offensive game. He was as bad in AAA last year (after he was sent down) as he was in Boston.

Well .. Nearly three months into the AAA season and he has done just that. I don't think another six weeks is going to make much difference.

Only 198 PA though. Anywhere between 200-350 would be reasonable thresholds.

I'd also remind people that the IL is a pitchers' league, with fewer than 4 RA/G and a sub-.700 league OPS.

iayork · Jun 23, 2015

I'm usually willing to give management a lot of benefit of the doubt, but I am getting a little dubious about their handling and/or evaluation of rookies. Ben and John have said a few times (on mobile so I can't link to quotes) that this is an especially difficult time for rookies - that the gap between AAA and majors is unusually large right now.

We looked at that on the .com site and it doesn't really seem to be the case for teams other than the Sox:

http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/are-rookies-having-a-harder-time/

Numbers of Sox rookies are small, maybe it's just bad luck, but if there's no global effect on rookies I think we do have to wonder if the Sox management has made mistakes.

ivanvamp · Jun 23, 2015

LahoudOrBillyC said:
The Red Sox dicked with Ellsbury's development, shifting him to play Cameron. They dicked with Bogaerts development, shifting him to play Drew. For the love of God leave Betts in CF for 18 years.

The way Betts plays the field, I honestly think that his development wouldn't really be thrown off much if he played a season or two in left before switching back to center. Seriously, he looks so natural out there to me. Incredible athlete, terrific instincts, picks up the game quickly. He's one guy I wouldn't really worry too much about this.

SoxVindaloo · Jun 23, 2015

Ellsbury moved often in 2008 when Crisp was around.
I agree with a lot of the consensus on Betts, he is an incredible natural athlete and his transitions from one position to the next seem smoother than most.
However, I would not shift him from CF until JBJ proves over some meaningful sample that he can hit big league pitching. If JBJ comes up soon and mashes in his rotational outfield spot then maybe you consider the position shift for Betts in the offseason to RF or LF.

chrisfont9 · Jun 23, 2015

SoxVindaloo said:
However, I would not shift him from CF until JBJ proves over some meaningful sample that he can hit big league pitching. If JBJ comes up soon and mashes in his rotational outfield spot then maybe you consider the position shift for Betts in the offseason to RF or LF.

Yep. Position changes should happen in the offseason so the player can get the benefit of spring training. So if Bradley's AAA progress is meaningful, he needs to come up in August and see if he's ready to hit major league pitching. Obviously guys like Victorino and Nava can go in deadline deals to make space (though hopefully Vic goes to a team who then plays at Fenway so the fans can show him the love he deserves).

geoduck no quahog · Jun 23, 2015

SoxVindaloo said:
Ellsbury moved often in 2008 when Crisp was around.
I agree with a lot of the consensus on Betts, he is an incredible natural athlete and his transitions from one position to the next seem smoother than most.
However, I would not shift him from CF until JBJ proves over some meaningful sample that he can hit big league pitching. If JBJ comes up soon and mashes in his rotational outfield spot then maybe you consider the position shift for Betts in the offseason to RF or LF.

I'm guessing that one of the most normal position shifts throughout baseball during the regular season and playoffs is outfielders moving around. I don't know how to verify that and I don't intend to, because it's obvious.

If so many major league players can change outfield positions during the season (and during games), the only argument against doing the same to Betts/Bradley is that they're young and inexperienced. I don't buy that either.

I don't believe there's a need to wait until off season to mess with these guys. On the other hand, I can't see an outfield of Ramirez / Betts / DeAza-Holt-Victorino being shaken up this year. If Victorino comes back, DeAza is gone. If Bradley's around, he gets sent back to AAA. If Victorino's out of the picture, then Bradley coming up for De Aza is more probable, depending on the standings.

grimshaw · Jun 23, 2015

They may be paving the way for him once they don't need their third catcher on the roster, since Castillo was just sent down.

Yelling At Clouds · Jun 23, 2015

grimshaw said:
They may be paving the way for him once they don't need their third catcher on the roster, since Castillo was just sent down.

Maybe. Victorino is expected to start a rehab assignment soon, and while I'm sure none of us are expecting anything out of him at this point, Farrell has proven that it's still his job to lose.

KillerBs · Jun 23, 2015

Good God, not only do we suck, but we have to spend the year watching washed up retreads like deAza, Masterson, Breslow, and Victorino. If all goes to plan we can get Swihart down to AAA soon so we can let Hannigan, Kratz and Leon fight it out for the big league job,.

Corsi · Jun 25, 2015

Lou Merloni ‏@LouMerloni 1m1 minute ago
According to source, JBJ is on his way up to Boston. It's about time

YouDownWithOBP? · Jun 25, 2015

Good, he's earned himself another shot. Hopefully Farrell will actually play him everyday. Nothing to lose at this point

Red(s)HawksFan · Jun 25, 2015

Corsi said:
Lou Merloni ‏@LouMerloni 1m1 minute ago
According to source, JBJ is on his way up to Boston. It's about time

I'm going to guess he's up to take Pedroia's roster spot and play RF full time while Holt plays 2B (and De Aza fills in in LF if Hanley has to sit).

rembrat · Jun 25, 2015

YouDownWithOBP? said:
Good, he's earned himself another shot. Hopefully Farrell will actually play him everyday. Nothing to lose at this point

And hopefully Jackie can show something on offense. It goes both ways.

Stan Papi Was Framed · Jun 25, 2015

rembrat said:
And hopefully Jackie can show something on offense. It goes both ways.

true, JBJ certainly has a lot to prove at the big league level. I've been glad to see he has put up good numbers at AAA this year, but of course that does not answer the crucial question: can he hit at the major league level? We'll find out now, and I certainly hope the answer is "yes".

Harry Hooper · Jun 25, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
I'm going to guess he's up to take Pedroia's roster spot and play RF full time while Holt plays 2B (and De Aza fills in in LF if Hanley has to sit).

. Yeah, looks like a DL stint for Pedey.

Fishy1 · Jun 25, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
I'm going to guess he's up to take Pedroia's roster spot and play RF full time while Holt plays 2B (and De Aza fills in in LF if Hanley has to sit).

Another possibility is Holt's full-time in RF and Betts is at 2nd, JBJ to center.

Red(s)HawksFan · Jun 25, 2015

Fishy1 said:
Another possibility is Holt's full-time in RF and Betts is at 2nd, JBJ to center.

Thought of that. I imagine they're less inclined to move Betts around than Holt (since Holt plays everywhere anyway). I could see Betts moving to RF with JBJ in CF, but I can't see them moving him to the infield.

Less so now that reports are that Marrero is at Fenway as well (probably to be the utility man).

Coachster · Jun 25, 2015

So let's try and put all this together. Marrero, JBJ and Aro up. Pedey to the DL. I'm guessing Kratz DFA, since Swihart is supposed to go today. What's the third chip to fall? De Aza to the DL?

YouDownWithOBP? · Jun 25, 2015

Coachster said:
So let's try and put all this together. Marrero, JBJ and Aro up. Pedey to the DL. I'm guessing Kratz DFA, since Swihart is supposed to go today. What's the third chip to fall? De Aza to the DL?

Also the possibility of a Breslow DFA, or some move with Kelly, with Aro up for four days, then optioned for Brian Johnson to the rotation?

Red(s)HawksFan · Jun 25, 2015

Coachster said:
So let's try and put all this together. Marrero, JBJ and Aro up. Pedey to the DL. I'm guessing Kratz DFA, since Swihart is supposed to go today. What's the third chip to fall? De Aza to the DL?

Kratz was seen packing his bag in the clubhouse, so he's gone. Pedey to the DL seems a foregone conclusion. Third has to be a pitcher. Too much to hope for a Breslow DFA, so I'm guessing either Kelly optioned to "work some things out" or Ross optioned with a Kelly move to the pen.

NDame616 · Jun 25, 2015

Kelly to the DL would be my guess

grimshaw · Jun 25, 2015

My guess is
Bradley to RF replacing Kratz
Betts stays in CF
Holt at 2B/LF and Marrero is strictly insurance.
Ross optioned for Aro
Kelly to pen
De Aza DL'd as they wait a few days on Pedey.
Deepdepth.com

Red(s)HawksFan · Jun 25, 2015

Sean McAdam @Sean_McAdam
On official lineup card, Ramirez is listed (meaning no DL for him); Pedroia is not.

rembrat · Jun 25, 2015

grimshaw said:
My guess is
Bradley to RF replacing Kratz
Betts stays in CF
Holt at 2B/LF and Marrero is strictly insurance.
Ross optioned for Aro
Kelly to pen
De Aza DL'd as they wait a few days on Pedey.

Per Speier, De Aza can play Thursday. So Pedey is the one headed to the DL.

The Talented Allen Ripley · Jun 25, 2015

Bradley in lineup, Marrero isn't. Neither Hanley nor Pedroia in there. Holt at second, De Aza in left. #RedSox
— Scott Lauber (@ScottLauber) June 25, 2015

Jackie Bradley Jr. starting in RF today for #RedSox.
— Steve Buckley (@BuckinBoston) June 25, 2015

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