Woj: Porzingis May Be Available
- Thread starter Seabass
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I think it's also reasonable that with four high lottery picks over 3/4 years, you can build a pretty awesome young team yourself that's under team control for a long time. This path forward is bolstered by the fact that these kids are going to develop within a winning organization that demands they play the game the right way in order to gain playing time. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I really don't like the idea of trading any of these picks and would prefer to proceed with the original plan of Tatum (RIP Fultz) and Hayward. Now we have yet another potential lottery pick to add next year to the core instead of a mere one. I want this team to be good for as long as possible - we have the foundation in place to support a 15-20 year run through patience and good drafting.
It really doesn't, as Porzingis has the potential (much of it already achieved) to be a difference maker on both ends. Nate Silver just posted this chart showing his defensive impact, and again this is on a team with no leadership or direction:
Supposedly Philly turned down Butler for the #3 whereas here posters are saying #3, + LAL, + players.
George should be less than Butler.
Getting KP for a couple of the picks, plus a player or two (and I'd include anyone except Isaiah and Jaylen), does not impact their ability to go after Hayward at all. A starting five of Horford, Porzingis, Hayward, Bradley/Smart, and IT is damn tempting.
I'd be thrilled to include Isaiah, one of the only ways to dump him that the fanbase won't go nuts over.
Guys over 7'2" don't exactly have a track record of longevity in the NBA, and the foot problems are more concerning in those guys as they get fairly immobile pretty quickly. So there's a pretty big risk in this case, and I'm not sure I'm comfortable emptying the war chest on 7'3" guy that's already had a host of lower extremity issues.
I don't know if this has any validity whatsoever, but I thought this, and the Suns fans' reaction to it, was pretty funny:
First, thoughts and prayers to Knicks fans if it is true. Second, raw scoring is still king for the majority of fans out there.
First, thoughts and prayers to Knicks fans if it is true. Second, raw scoring is still king for the majority of fans out there.
Thoughts and prayers to Knicks fans? Why?
The Knicks should absolutely be asking for packages like that to even consider dealing Porzingis.
The Knicks should absolutely be asking for packages like that to even consider dealing Porzingis.
It really doesn't, as Porzingis has the potential (much of it already achieved) to be a difference maker on both ends. Nate Silver just posted this chart showing his defensive impact, and again this is on a team with no leadership or direction:
Thanks The Moops. That's a lot of injuries, but the only one that really concerns me is the foot. The others can be overcome, I think, with learning more about your body and the best ways to stretch, strengthen, get better sneakers, etc. Without more detail on the foot injury, it's worrying as there's little that can be done with certain injuries there.
I think that's a terrible return because I don't think Booker is particularly good. I realize I'm much lower on Booker than consensus, but see the Demar Derozan thread for my general thoughts on inefficient high-volume gunners who don't do much of anything else and are terrible at defense.
That's a great highlight on why several of us are ready to give up a lot for a healthy KP. The offensive numbers are very good - especially for his age - but given how valuable defense is in the post-season, this ups his value significantly.
Booker's 20 years old and was the sixth player in NBA history to average over 21 points per game, and he did that at basically league average efficiency. There's a lot of low-hanging fruit improvement to be made from an efficiency standpoint, and he'll also get better as a ball handler and passer in the pick and roll.
KP fills a need, is very afforadable for 2 years, and still allows the addition of a significant FA, if Crowder/etc is part of the deal. If the medical questions can be adequately xamined, Ainge should kick the tires hard, and get on the phone to due some due diligence with KP's Latvian guiidance councelor.
But Ainge is not responsible for rebuilding the Celtics and the Knicks.
But Ainge is not responsible for rebuilding the Celtics and the Knicks.
Maybe I need to take another look at Booker then. I know the defense is bad, but that's something I always feel like can be improved with teaching.
Durant, Lebron, Kyrie, and Shaq, for those curious. Not sure who the other guy is from my B-Ref search, but if we expand to age 21, there's a bunch more guys who Booker will never be as good as, plus Terry Cummins, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Antoine Walker and Andrew Wiggins.
I underrated his passing a bit, but my main problem is that he would have to hit all his low-hanging fruit improvements and then some to make up for his defense. Of course, he's young and he projects to improve some at that end as well, but from what I've seen, the tools just aren't there. He's not quite Isaiah-level bad, but maybe Derozan-level bad. He's savvy as hell as a scorer, and much better from deep than Derozan, so he could end up a net positive if his gravity is heavy enough, but I dunno, I just worry about how a guy like him fits in the modern game.
Apropos of nothing and without agreeing or disagreeing, I absolutely love the phrase "Booker is a lie". And I will love it even more if Phil Jackson trades for him and the lie turns out to be true.
A healthy Embiid playing 75 games is going to be an MVP candidate.It really doesn't, as Porzingis has the potential (much of it already achieved) to be a difference maker on both ends. Nate Silver just posted this chart showing his defensive impact, and again this is on a team with no leadership or direction:
This isn't exactly true -- there really are only a handful of shotblockers in league history that have 3 point range.
The critique you have is more relevant when people say: "Only 5 players in league history 6'7 and under have averaged X points and Y rebounds in their first 100 games!". Usually they are setting the minimum criteria at a player's actual performance.
Porzingis' block rate is fairly high by historical standards, but unremarkable when considered against guys like Bol, Eaton, Bradley, Wallace, etc. Many of these guys played in prior eras of the league, but hardly any of them had range beyond 15 feet, never mind 3 point range.
Porzingis attempts threes on nearly 1/3 of his shot attempts. Even guys like Kirilenko and Smith didn't attempt nearly that many early in their careers, although Smith became much more of a chucker late in his career. Eddie Griffin was ahead of his time in that regard, although mental illness derailed his career and ultimately his life.
Now, Porzingis' skillset is entirely a function of modern basketball. That's a big reason why that combo is historically rare. A guy with Porzingis' size and athleticism would have developed totally differently if he came up twenty, even ten years ago. But the point is that he has those skills.
I don't know if the Celtics should trade for him. I'm just trying to explain why people are enamored with his potential.
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Not really. I guess it depends on what you consider a shot blocker. Especially if you consider Josh Smith a capable 3 point shooter with his career 28.5% from 3. Josh Smith, Eddie Griffin, Raef LaFrentz, Brook Lopez, AK47, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Donyell Marshall, KAT, Rasheed Wallace, Marc Gasol, DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Coleman, Chris Webber, Al Horford, Serge Ibaka, Spencer Hawes, Kristaps, Joel Embiid, Tracy McGrady
There are 32 seasons where a guy averaged 1.25 blocks while shooting 35% from 3 on at least 82 attempts (1 per). I guess you can argue that a guy like McGrady isn't a shot blocker but he had 2 seasons where he averaged 1.5 and 1.9 blocks. Even Nowitski had a year where he averaged 1.5 blocks and 3 seasons where he recorded over 100.
Now if you change those perimeters to 2.0 blocks, 35% from 3 on at least 82 attempts, there are 4 such season. Serge has 1, Raef has 2 and Embiid has the other. Lower it to 1.5 blocks, and there are 18 such seasons.
I get that isn't a lot over the course of NBA history but that list doesn't include guys like Thon Maker, Myles Turner, Anthony Davis, Giannis, Chriss, Richaun Holmes etc. If you notice the trend, the list of players who can block shots and shoot the 3 is largely made up of current NBA players. Maybe the combo was pretty rare, it isn't now.
Just for reference, I'm using rate numbers (3PTR and BLK%) as my criteria.
That eliminates a lot of the volume guys. But it's also worth noting that if you eliminate role players -- Porzingis is clearly not one -- the list gets even shorter.
That eliminates a lot of the volume guys. But it's also worth noting that if you eliminate role players -- Porzingis is clearly not one -- the list gets even shorter.
Davis doesn't shoot all that many threes -- at least not compared to Porzingis. Giannis fits if you drop the block criteria a bit, and the rest of those guys are role players. An obvious guy who you missed with similar BLK% and 3PTR numbers is Embiid, although he's hardly played.
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3PTR (% of shots that are 3PA)
BLK% (% of opposing possessions that ended in a blocked shot by the player)
Why are you filtering it out by age 21 or younger? 10% and 4% seem like decent cut offs but when you remove the age filter, the list looks like this http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=-1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&force
os_is=1&c1stat=fg3a_per_fga_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=10&c2stat=blk_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=4&c6mult=1.0&order_by=ws but that is for entire careers.
If you search by single seasons, there are 77 that qualify. Career wise, it is very rare for someone to do. For a season, not so much.
os_is=1&c1stat=fg3a_per_fga_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=10&c2stat=blk_pct&c2comp=gt&c2val=4&c6mult=1.0&order_by=ws but that is for entire careers.If you search by single seasons, there are 77 that qualify. Career wise, it is very rare for someone to do. For a season, not so much.
Back to Porzi rumors: just heard on Sirius XM NBA channel that Knicks asking price was this year’s #3 and next year’s Nets pick. Rumor floated on an NBA talk show, so take it with a grain of salt.
Because he was talking about why people are enamored with Porzingis--a young player with these skills.
There's a difference in searching for, say "Guys that have hit 45 HRs in a season" and "Guys that have hit 45 HRs in a season before age 22."
I think you make that trade in a heart beat. You acquire KP without thinning out your roster? Crowder/Bradley/Jaylen/Smart/IT/Rozier/etc remain as potential assets along with the 18 LAL/19 SAC pick.
Fair enough, but 21 is pretty young. 24-25 seems like a better cut off. Plus, while it may have been a rare combo 10-15 years ago, there are lots of guys in the NBA that have that combo now. Unless you don't really consider KAT, Giannis, Myles Turner, Thon Maker, etc. It makes sense intuitively, as stretch bigs are all the rage now.
If you think Porzingis is going to stay healthy, that is a pretty fair trade. He's not the type of player you do a Herschel Walker type trade for. I'd personally pass if I were the Celtics but I'm very skittish on tall players who have had issues with their feet.
I'd do neither but I'd give the Nets pick significantly more value as it has no protections and because they are a worse team. The LAL/SAC pick has a lot more volatility to it.
And the Nets pick is 2018 whereas the other pick is likely 2019 so there is additional discounting needed on top of all the various protections.
If Phil was offering KP for Phoenix's #4 and Booker, and was turned down, why would Ainge offer much more than #3 (better than the #4) and a choice of (1) Bradley/Smart/Crowder?
Ainge's job is to rebuild the Celts, not the Knicks.
Ainge's job is to rebuild the Celts, not the Knicks.
I'm sure Phil would ask more from a division rival and a franchise that he personally detests. But Ainge doesn't need to trade for Porzingis and Jackson doesn't need to trade him so I highly doubt we ever see a deal here even though the Celtics clearly have the pieces to get it done.
If you are a rebuilding team, what use do you really have for AB or Crowder? Smart is decent but he's more a role player. He's still young enough to take a step forward but Booker is 2 1/2 years younger and is already an efficient volume scorer. He also started to rebound and pass the ball more effectively in the 2nd half. 24.6 points, 4.2 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.0 spg on .420/.353/.841 in the 2nd half. He may never be much defensively but he has a chance to be special offensively. And for a rebuilding team, I doubt the player they take at 3 would be much more valuable than who they take at 4 to make up the difference between Booker and Smart.
Smart is the player a team in contention would want. Booker is the player a rebuilding team would want.
Smart is the player a team in contention would want. Booker is the player a rebuilding team would want.
I'm sorry, but the point of getting all of these picks is to get elite, young talent. That's KP. Dude has been in literally the worst situation in the NBA for the first two years of his career and he's been fairly great, with a chance to be elite right away. If his medicals check out then I'd have no issue moving both Nets picks for him.
The point was Phil set a price, was rebuffed, and there is no need to beat that offer.If you can get KP for a decent price/discount from a distressed seller, you pursue it. And Phil is distressed, he's getting killed in NYC, and he needs players.
It doesn't say whether he was rebuffed or not. Just that that was the asking price. Why would you need to beat an asking price?
What's KP right now - is he a top 20 player? I doubt it. Top 30? Maybe. Top 50? Sure. Something comparable to Horford, but cheaper, younger, and with upside.
What is his upside? Is he future-MVP-caliber? I don't think so. Top 10 in the league? Maybe. I sort of see him landing in that next tier, top 10-15, if everything goes well.
He also fits well what the team currently needs. So I'd certainly give the #3, plus quantity. C's future firsts, and/or the Memphis 1st. I'd probably offer Crowder, who I do think is the kind of veteran you'd like to have around your young guys as you rebuild, but who could also be flipped at some point for a late first.
What is his upside? Is he future-MVP-caliber? I don't think so. Top 10 in the league? Maybe. I sort of see him landing in that next tier, top 10-15, if everything goes well.
He also fits well what the team currently needs. So I'd certainly give the #3, plus quantity. C's future firsts, and/or the Memphis 1st. I'd probably offer Crowder, who I do think is the kind of veteran you'd like to have around your young guys as you rebuild, but who could also be flipped at some point for a late first.