X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

[Rovin Romine]

Yeah, the trades themselves were mostly fine. The much bigger issue was the lack of replenishment.

That's not really true either. There's this weird memeish suggestion that keeps floating around that Cherrington was this great minor league developer that DD sort of cashed in on early. That's 100% not the case.

-Theo left a pretty amazingly stocked farm system with the 2011 draft.​

​

-Cherrington's drafts were awful to "meh" though he did add a few key players (Devers). His main plus (vis a vis the farm system) was not trading away good players.​

​

-DD traded mostly out of Cherrington's good to meh picks for guys like Sale. DD also drafted/signed well and restocked the system.​

I don't think you can really "spend" out of the system to acquire Pomeranz and Sale level talent for the 2016-19 GFIN bubble, while at the same time stocking the system with equally developed talent. Just the nature of the beast.

But it's sort of a fantasy that DD somehow shoveled actual talent out the door for ephemeral gains. I mean, do we really want a 2016-21 team with Yoan Moncada on it? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moncayo01.shtml Michael Kopech? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kopecmi01.shtml

They're not bad players, but Sale was the key to the 2018 WS victory - they would not have been.


***

From an older post: for drafts Theo was 2004-2011, Cherrington was 2012-2015, and DD 2016-2019. I added notable international signings with an underline. So:

DD:
2019- Cannon, Lugo, Song, Murphy
2018- Casas, Duran. Rafaela, Bello.
2017- Houck, Crawford. Hector Velazquez.
2016- Groome, Dalbec. Mata.

BC:
2015- Benintendi, Allen, Poyner
2014- Chavis, Kopech, Travis, Beeks. Moncada, Rusney, Espinosa, Bazardo.
2013- Ball, Stankiewicz, Denney, Dubon. Devers, Darwinzon.
2012- Marrero, Johnson, Light, Maddox, Buttrey

TE:
2011- Barnes, Swihart, Owens, JBJ, Jerez, Ramirez, Mookie, Travis Shaw. Margot.
2010- Brentz, Workman.
2009- Kelley, Hazelbaker. Iglesias, Bogaerts.
2008- Weiland, Federowicz, Vazquez. Tazawa.
2007- Hagadone, Rizzo, Middlebrooks.

 

[JM3]

Not sure how that differs from what I said? BC might not have done a great job, but there are ways to creatively fill in a roster & avoid having a 3-year gap where literally nothing is coming from your farm system.

To some extent it's a recurring cycle, though - don't have enough young cost-controlled talent so trade the next wave for Major League players, rinse, repeat. Which has led to the boom/bust cycle which has obviously been amazing during the booms.

If DD was here he probably would have traded several from the Casas/Bello/Mata/Duran/Rafaela group, added a couple big free agents, & they would be trying to make a run at another small window.

I appreciate the patient/sustainability approach & creativity around the borders which will pay off to supplement the farm now that there is finally a group of incoming talent ready. & hopefully lead to only booms.

 

[bigq]

There are many wrong ways to be a fan - one of the more obvious ways is for unrealistic and hyper-critical fandom to sour, canker, and settle into an unremittingly obnoxious toxicity.

I would vote for ever-greening this post and pinning it to the top of every thread until the end of eternity.

 

[nighthob]

There's some German word that begins with an "S". . .

View: https://twitter.com/SteveGelbs/status/1673519864298848261

Scheisse?

 

[TFisNEXT]

OK but we never won a title with Prime Pedro. Post-prime Pedro helped get the '04 team there, plus whatever you call Schilling. Then it was Prime Beckett, Prime Lester, and... I guess more like a bunch of #2 guys in 2018, but in all cases we had starting pitching that would just refuse to lose and had the stuff to back it up. Rovin's astute observation was that people bring ideas from other sports to baseball, like star-centered roster-building, and it doesn't work that way. Totally agree... except for the #1 starter. That's the ONLY spot on a baseball roster where I am all for paying the freight, and even there it's debatable because of the frequency of pitching injuries. But it's the only guy on the field where if you get to the postseason, you know that guy is going to make a big difference. Otherwise, the whole-roster approach seems pretty essential these days.

Oh, and however good Kiké was in 2021, it was Eovaldi who got us to the ALCS and gave us hope there... then hit the wall.

Right. I wasn't arguing Prime Pedro won them a WS (which he didn't). Just that getting a player like Prime Pedro is ridiculously rare and players like him are what often hook people into baseball rather than a semi-generic World Series team. It's kind of hard to parse the two as a Red Sox fan though because the franchise went so long without a WS Title that it consumed so much of our identity as Boston fans pre-2004.

Not making the playoffs in 2000 with a 12 WAR pitcher and an 8 WAR shortstop was more of an indictment on Dan Duquette than anything else. Hell, he even had a 5 WAR centerfielder too (Carl Everett). The rest of that team was just really pathetic.

I'm just glad they won a WS with Pedro still on the team...it's too bad Nomar couldn't have been a part of it during that postseason, but that's the way things roll sometimes. The flip side is that Orlando Cabrera will never be just a footnote. Everyone who witnessed 2004 will always remember his 3 months with the Red Sox. The same is even more true for Dave Roberts.

 

[joe dokes]

Right. I wasn't arguing Prime Pedro won them a WS (which he didn't). Just that getting a player like Prime Pedro is ridiculously rare and players like him are what often hook people into baseball rather than a semi-generic World Series team. It's kind of hard to parse the two as a Red Sox fan though because the franchise went so long without a WS Title that it consumed so much of our identity as Boston fans pre-2004.

Not making the playoffs in 2000 with a 12 WAR pitcher and an 8 WAR shortstop was more of an indictment on Dan Duquette than anything else. Hell, he even had a 5 WAR centerfielder too (Carl Everett). The rest of that team was just really pathetic.

I'm just glad they won a WS with Pedro still on the team...it's too bad Nomar couldn't have been a part of it during that postseason, but that's the way things roll sometimes. The flip side is that Orlando Cabrera will never be just a footnote. Everyone who witnessed 2004 will always remember his 3 months with the Red Sox. The same is even more true for Dave Roberts.

The current Angels are an example here. Some Angels' fans will look back on having seen Mike Trout play. For others, that might be overshadowed by the overall mediocrity of the team. Neither are wrong.

 

[chrisfont9]

Right. I wasn't arguing Prime Pedro won them a WS (which he didn't). Just that getting a player like Prime Pedro is ridiculously rare and players like him are what often hook people into baseball rather than a semi-generic World Series team. It's kind of hard to parse the two as a Red Sox fan though because the franchise went so long without a WS Title that it consumed so much of our identity as Boston fans pre-2004.

Not making the playoffs in 2000 with a 12 WAR pitcher and an 8 WAR shortstop was more of an indictment on Dan Duquette than anything else. Hell, he even had a 5 WAR centerfielder too (Carl Everett). The rest of that team was just really pathetic.

I'm just glad they won a WS with Pedro still on the team...it's too bad Nomar couldn't have been a part of it during that postseason, but that's the way things roll sometimes. The flip side is that Orlando Cabrera will never be just a footnote. Everyone who witnessed 2004 will always remember his 3 months with the Red Sox. The same is even more true for Dave Roberts.

Agree, was just following your point more than disagreeing. You (and/or others) got me thinking that while Rovin was on to something, there was one exception. It didn't quite work out with Prime Pedro as well as it did with Beckett and Lester, but the organization did figure out the one guy to target.

 

[koufax32]

Scheisse?

Das ist wunderbar

 

[Fishercat]

That's not really true either. There's this weird memeish suggestion that keeps floating around that Cherrington was this great minor league developer that DD sort of cashed in on early. That's 100% not the case.

-Theo left a pretty amazingly stocked farm system with the 2011 draft.​

​

-Cherrington's drafts were awful to "meh" though he did add a few key players (Devers). His main plus (vis a vis the farm system) was not trading away good players.​

​

-DD traded mostly out of Cherrington's good to meh picks for guys like Sale. DD also drafted/signed well and restocked the system.​

I don't think you can really "spend" out of the system to acquire Pomeranz and Sale level talent for the 2016-19 GFIN bubble, while at the same time stocking the system with equally developed talent. Just the nature of the beast.

But it's sort of a fantasy that DD somehow shoveled actual talent out the door for ephemeral gains. I mean, do we really want a 2016-21 team with Yoan Moncada on it? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moncayo01.shtml Michael Kopech? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kopecmi01.shtml

They're not bad players, but Sale was the key to the 2018 WS victory - they would not have been.


***

From an older post: for drafts Theo was 2004-2011, Cherrington was 2012-2015, and DD 2016-2019. I added notable international signings with an underline. So:

DD:
2019- Cannon, Lugo, Song, Murphy
2018- Casas, Duran. Rafaela, Bello.
2017- Houck, Crawford. Hector Velazquez.
2016- Groome, Dalbec. Mata.

BC:
2015- Benintendi, Allen, Poyner
2014- Chavis, Kopech, Travis, Beeks. Moncada, Rusney, Espinosa, Bazardo.
2013- Ball, Stankiewicz, Denney, Dubon. Devers, Darwinzon.
2012- Marrero, Johnson, Light, Maddox, Buttrey

TE:
2011- Barnes, Swihart, Owens, JBJ, Jerez, Ramirez, Mookie, Travis Shaw. Margot.
2010- Brentz, Workman.
2009- Kelley, Hazelbaker. Iglesias, Bogaerts.
2008- Weiland, Federowicz, Vazquez. Tazawa.
2007- Hagadone, Rizzo, Middlebrooks.

This post got me thinking, and I've personally been pretty critical of Dombrowski in my own head but man...I think a lot of it was timing.

I'm not sure if anyone has gone back to look at the 2016 and 2017 drafts, but these were really, really bad amateur draft years. So while Dombrowski is selling accumulated talent for a title (and honestly, most folks would do all those trades again), the pool he's trying to replenish from is terrible.

2016: That is an ugly draft for Boston, no doubt. Only one player in the first round has accumulated over 10 WAR - #32 pick Will Smith. Three others are above five (Cal Quantrill, Dylan Carlson, and Gavin Lux). The rest is a mix of talent that hasn't really done at ton of producing yet. There's obviously still hope for Ian Anderson and Nick Lodolo and the like but the number of true impact guys in this draft was low -Smith, Bichette, Alonso, Reynolds, Gallen, Sean Murphy, Austin Hays, Bieber, Burnes, Edman, and Gonsolin. Funny enough, the Sox did have a guy here - Santiago Espinal in the 9th round who has been good...but the Sox got Steve Pearce for him. Good talent find by Toronto.

2017:On this one, among signed players in the first ten rounds (I don't want to go deeper), Daulton Varsho had the highest WAR. Taylor Walls is second as an all glove utility guy. Third? Tanner Houck. Yep, it's that bad of a draft. You will struggle to find anything but a decent reliever or utility guy past round two. If you chose the best player in the first five rounds (WAR wise among guys who signed), you'd get Tanner Houck, Dalton Varsho, Taylor Walls, Seth Eldridge, and Buddy Kennedy.

2018, hard to be update with Casas in R1 where they were. Some big players went ahead of him but only Shane McLanahan and Jake McCarthy have produced in the majors to this point in a real valuable fashion and Casas is quite promising. 2019 was a swing and a miss but they were missing their first rounded.

We should also remember Dombrowski was hamstrung severely in those first two. He was hired August 2015 so the initial "big splash" signing period was done but the Sox had already committed the infraction on bonus bundling with the Venezulan prospects. This was already a capped class due to the Sox' massive spending on Moncada the prior year - so Dombrowski doesn't get the benefit of doing much here to begin with and then has to eat a ban from the IFA market in 2016. The IFA market is a massive crapshoot, but worth noting Arozarena, Gabriel Arias, and Yordan Alvarez were in that pool.

This isn't to postulate if DD had a full international pool Yordan and Randy would be Red Sox and if the 2016 draft was better he'd hit all the guys, but his all-in strategy coincided with a circumstance where he'd need amazing foresight to keep up.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Not sure how that differs from what I said? BC might not have done a great job, but there are ways to creatively fill in a roster & avoid having a 3-year gap where literally nothing is coming from your farm system.

Because the issue wasn't DD failing to replenish the system. He did. Look at his drafts.

The issue was Cherrington's completely meh drafts. If Cherrington had drafted better, DD might have dealt the same cards from an overall better hand. We'd have 2018 Sale and some talent hitting the majors in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

I'm not putting this all on Cherrington - sometimes good prospects just fail. But BC had more misses than hits in the draft and it's not like he traded up in the minors to create a lot of depth. Hence the oddness of the meme/myth that Cherrington somehow acquired this motherload of can't-miss talent that DD traded away, resulting in the 2018-2021 talent gap. (Or however you want to define it.)

If DD had kept it all, I doubt anybody would have been happy with the outcomes. It's amazing he got what he did out of it.

 

[JM3]

Because the issue wasn't DD failing to replenish the system. He did. Look at his drafts.

The issue was Cherrington's completely meh drafts. If Cherrington had drafted better, DD might have dealt the same cards from an overall better hand. We'd have 2018 Sale and some talent hitting the majors in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

I'm not putting this all on Cherrington - sometimes good prospects just fail. But BC had more misses than hits in the draft and it's not like he traded up in the minors to create a lot of depth. Hence the oddness of the meme/myth that Cherrington somehow acquired this motherload of can't-miss talent that DD traded away, resulting in the 2018-2021 talent gap. (Or however you want to define it.)

If DD had kept it all, I doubt anybody would have been happy with the outcomes. It's amazing he got what he did out of it.

There is more to replenishing a system than drafting a few good players & the only really good year is '18. He got a championship. It was awesome. The trades were fine. The model was not sustainable - especially with the overpays for past success. I don't think I ever said anything good about BC, but the team was better set up for success for DD than it was for CB.

I'm glad we moved to a more modern approach in a timely manner.

 

[Steve Dillard]

Wondering what Juan Soto will get. He's plateaued at a nice .850-.920 OPS (not the 1.000 plus from his second year), but wonder whether he'll get the $440 million he passed on. He seems far more comparable to Devers (10/313), albeit a tick above and two years younger.

 

[Tim Salmon]

Wondering what Juan Soto will get. He's plateaued at a nice .850-.920 OPS (not the 1.000 plus from his second year), but wonder whether he'll get the $440 million he passed on. He seems far more comparable to Devers (10/313), albeit a tick above and two years younger.

I think Soto's strike-zone command makes him a far better bet than Devers over the course of a long contract. Soto's worst season OBP was .401; Devers' best was .361 (.424 career vs. .339). It's also early to write off Soto's power. He had an .853 OPS in his worst season last year, and he's at .912 only halfway through this year (Devers is at .807).

Soto's more than a tick above Devers, and I'd be very disappointed if gets under $440M and the Red Sox aren't in on him.

 

[Niastri]

I'd like to see the Sox offer 16/$.5 Billion.

It's only two more million a year, but sounds like a much bigger number. Brings him to 41, when the salary cap is likely to be double.

Soto will still probably be a viable hitter at that point.

A lineup with Devers, Soto, Yoshida, Casas and Story will be a long way to be great. Add in whichever of our recruits pan out and they could be good and cheap for a long time.

All the cost controlled talent being developed is so you can go after a potential future Hall of Fame player like Soto.

 

[Bergs]

Another consideration is that Soto is an absolute butcher in the field, which would block Raffy from migrating to DH as he ages.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'd like to see the Sox offer 16/$.5 Billion.

It's only two more million a year, but sounds like a much bigger number. Brings him to 41, when the salary cap is likely to be double.

Soto will still probably be a viable hitter at that point.

A lineup with Devers, Soto, Yoshida, Casas and Story will be an long way to be great. Add in whichever of our recruits pan out and they could be good and cheap for a long time.

All the cost controlled talent being developed is so you can go after a potential future Hall of Fame player like Soto.

That's a lotta lefties there. You'd need a bunch of good, cheap RH pop to really fill it out.

 

[Niastri]

That's a lotta lefties there. You'd need a bunch of good, cheap RH pop to really fill it out.

It is lots of lefties, they would want to help balance the lineup one way or another.

But Soto had an .828 OPS against lefties and an .875 against lefty starters. He's a great guy to have up even against lefty pitchers. Maybe you give him a day off every so often against lefty starters, but he doesn't need to be protected.

Story is a good start to balance, with his .986 vs lefties.

Yoshida doesn't have a huge career split so far, hitting. 800 OPS vs. lefties.

Mayer and Duran make the lefty problem worse, but Rafeala, Yorke and Bleis are righties.

Guys like Refsnyder who hit lefties way better are cheaper to come by, but they help fill in that gap starting most games with lefties and being able to pinch hit if necessary.

All things considered, having two guys like Devers and Soto in the lineup isn't a problem, even if you aren't blessed with Manny Ramirez between them in the order, only Story.

 

[LogansDad]

Yeah, Devers is a great player. Soto is a potential Hall of Famer.

I do agree, however, that the Devers deal looks like it blocks Soto to me. As much as Devers has improved defensively, it still feels like the 2nd half of his contract will likely be as a DH, and I feel basically the same way about Soto.

That said, when you start talking about "too left handed" and a lineup, Soto isn't the kind of guy you are worrying about (as @Niastri alludes to). I don't know that I would put quite put him in the "generational talent" category, but he isn't far off.

 

[jbupstate]

16 years and $500m for a DH? Not sure Soto is worth that as a hitter. He is young and the plate discipline is a huge plus. But not much of a base runner and already bad in the field. His numbers offensively don’t show the greatest trend.

 

[LogansDad]

16 years and $500m for a DH? Not sure Soto is worth that as a hitter. He is young and the plate discipline is a huge plus. But not much of a base runner and already bad in the field. His numbers offensively don’t show the greatest trend.

Strong disagree. He struggled after the trade and the move to San Diego last year, but he is back up to his career norms, even after a slowish start to this season.

 

[jbupstate]

You’re probably right. I didn’t factor in the trade. But at his age should we be looking at career norms (great!) or should we be looking at an upward trend and a higher peak.

I am not arguing against Soto on the Sox. I would love it. But he’s a DH in the near future because he already bad in the field and at a huge contract will need to be protected from injury.

 

[Niastri]

Yeah, Devers is a great player. Soto is a potential Hall of Famer.

I do agree, however, that the Devers deal looks like it blocks Soto to me. As much as Devers has improved defensively, it still feels like the 2nd half of his contract will likely be as a DH, and I feel basically the same way about Soto.

That said, when you start talking about "too left handed" and a lineup, Soto isn't the kind of guy you are worrying about (as @Niastri alludes to). I don't know that I would put quite put him in the "generational talent" category, but he isn't far off.

He's currently 24 and already has 26.5
bWAR already in his career. He's led the league in a ton of meaningful statistics, both traditional and advanced. He's never had less than a .401obp. He's got 13 "black ink" in 5 seasons, where the average full career HoF has 27. Considering the peak for players is usually 27-30, he might still get better. If he isn't a generational player, you're literally only counting Trout, since Soto isn't quite in his peer group.

16 years and $500m for a DH? Not sure Soto is worth that as a hitter. He is young and the plate discipline is a huge plus. But not much of a base runner and already bad in the field. His numbers offensively don’t show the greatest trend.

Soto isn't great in the outfield, but he seems to be getting more comfortable out there... His dWAR is on pace for negative half a win, in San Diego's big outfield. Put him in front of the wall in Fenway and in right in New York and Baltimore and he should be ok. I don't think he needs to be a DH any time soon, and Devers neither.

Both can hit well enough to hold down DH if they need to be given a day off from the field, but won't handicap your team on defense.

 

[LogansDad]

He's currently 24 and already has 26.5
bWAR already in his career. He's led the league in a ton of meaningful statistics, both traditional and advanced. He's never had less than a .401obp. He's got 13 "black ink" in 5 seasons, where the average full career HoF has 27. Considering the peak for players is usually 27-30, he might still get better. If he isn't a generational player, you're literally only counting Trout, since Soto isn't quite in his peer group.

I think we are basically in agreement here, though I might put Ohtani up there, as well. Soto is an incredible talent, I guess I look at generational as kind of a literal once in a generation player, and I think Trout set himself apart for long enough that it's him.

I think Soto will be there soon, though.

 

[Rovin Romine]

He's currently 24 and already has 26.5 bWAR already in his career. He's led the league in a ton of meaningful statistics, both traditional and advanced. He's never had less than a .401obp. He's got 13 "black ink" in 5 seasons, where the average full career HoF has 27. Considering the peak for players is usually 27-30, he might still get better. If he isn't a generational player, you're literally only counting Trout, since Soto isn't quite in his peer group.

Looking at his page, I see 11 black ink marks. (One of which is GIDP, which surely can't count?).

If we exclude the "2020 not-even-a-half-season," he's led the league twice in walks, and once in IBB (which seems a subset.) He led in .OBP once.

Anyway, what are the other blank ink marks? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sotoju01.shtml

 

[nvalvo]

He's currently 24 and already has 26.5
bWAR already in his career. He's led the league in a ton of meaningful statistics, both traditional and advanced. He's never had less than a .401obp. He's got 13 "black ink" in 5 seasons, where the average full career HoF has 27. Considering the peak for players is usually 27-30, he might still get better. If he isn't a generational player, you're literally only counting Trout, since Soto isn't quite in his peer group.



Soto isn't great in the outfield, but he seems to be getting more comfortable out there... His dWAR is on pace for negative half a win, in San Diego's big outfield. Put him in front of the wall in Fenway and in right in New York and Baltimore and he should be ok. I don't think he needs to be a DH any time soon, and Devers neither.

Both can hit well enough to hold down DH if they need to be given a day off from the field, but won't handicap your team on defense.

Let's think this through. Let's say we ink Soto to a 15/$500m deal or whatever. It seems plausible.

Soto becomes the starting LF, obviously, moving Yoshida to DH for the next four seasons. It commits us to Devers at 3B through that timeframe, which seems fine.

But without a RHH DH, suddenly we''re looking extremely left-handed. A list of notable hitters in the organization by handedness.

LHH
Soto (in this scenario)
Devers
Yoshida
Casas
Verdugo
Duran
McGuire
Mayer
Anthony

RHH
Story
Turner
Wong
Refsnyder
Rafaela
Bleis
Yorke

Looking at that, I have a few thoughts:

• Turner is likely one-and-done anyways.
• It may preclude extending Verdugo, just so that we have a position for a RHH corner bat in 2024. Counterpoint: Verdugo hits lefties pretty decently.
• If Mayer replaces Story at SS, that makes us even more LH.
• Story's contract has some interesting optionality, where he can opt out of the remaining 2/$50m after 2025, but the team can opt him back in by picking up their $25m club option for 2028.

Then again, your 2026 Boston Red Sox:

RH Bleis RF
LH Devers 3B
LH Soto LF
RH Yorke 2B
LH Yoshida DH
LH Casas 1B
RH Rafaela CF
LH Mayer SS
RH Wong C

 

[JM3]

Let's think this through. Let's say we ink Soto to a 15/$500m deal or whatever. It seems plausible.

Soto becomes the starting LF, obviously, moving Yoshida to DH for the next four seasons. It commits us to Devers at 3B through that timeframe, which seems fine.

But without a RHH DH, suddenly we''re looking extremely left-handed. A list of notable hitters in the organization by handedness.

LHH
Soto (in this scenario)
Devers
Yoshida
Casas
Verdugo
Duran
McGuire
Mayer
Anthony

RHH
Story
Turner
Wong
Refsnyder
Rafaela
Bleis
Yorke

Looking at that, I have a few thoughts:

• Turner is likely one-and-done anyways.
• It may preclude extending Verdugo, just so that we have a position for a RHH corner bat in 2024. Counterpoint: Verdugo hits lefties pretty decently.
• If Mayer replaces Story at SS, that makes us even more LH.
• Story's contract has some interesting optionality, where he can opt out of the remaining 2/$50m after 2025, but the team can opt him back in by picking up their $25m club option for 2028.

Then again, your 2026 Boston Red Sox:

RH Bleis RF
LH Devers 3B
LH Soto LF
RH Yorke 2B
LH Yoshida DH
LH Casas 1B
RH Rafaela CF
LH Mayer SS
RH Wong C

If we're really dreaming lol...

Against righties...

LH Anthony RF
LH Soto LF
LH Devers 3B
LH Yoshida DH
LH Casas 1B
LH Mayer SS
LH Romero 2B
LH Duran CF
LH Scott C

Against lefties...

RH Bleis RF
LH Soto LF
RH Yorke 2B
RH Story DH
LH Devers 3B
RH Blaze 1B
LH Mayer SS
RH Rafaela CF
RH Wong C

I assume they'll expand the rosters to 27 by 2026.

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1674505769029611520


I wonder if Bob Melvin lasts the season at this point.... someone is going to end up being the scapegoat in SD...

 

[InsideTheParker]

It's the bullpen. If they upgraded it, they'd have a much better chance of winning games. I don't know if Melvin has options and is foolishly selecting the wrong guys every time, but I doubt it.

 

[scottyno]

It's the bullpen. If they upgraded it, they'd have a much better chance of winning games. I don't know if Melvin has options and is foolishly selecting the wrong guys every time, but I doubt it.

And a severely under-performing lineup, everyone but Soto, Kim, and Tatis has been much worse than expected with X Machado and Carpender being the biggest culprits. Overall they've been a league average offense when with as much talent as they have you'd expect them to be one of the best. It gets even worse when you look at the clutch hitting stats, the whole team has been god awful with risp and late and close.

 

[8slim]

View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1674505769029611520


I wonder if Bob Melvin lasts the season at this point.... someone is going to end up being the scapegoat in SD...

I heard Melvin do an interview on MLB radio before the Pirates series, and he said this has been the most difficult season of his managing career. I wonder if they’re going to fire him at the all star break.

 

[AlNipper49]

And a severely under-performing lineup, everyone but Soto, Kim, and Tatis has been much worse than expected with X Machado and Carpender being the biggest culprits. Overall they've been a league average offense when with as much talent as they have you'd expect them to be one of the best. It gets even worse when you look at the clutch hitting stats, the whole team has been god awful with risp and late and close.

The worst (perhaps stressful?) part for them is that X and Machado will be on the books for a looooong, loooooong time. The ink on those contracts is barely dry.

 

[Rovin Romine]

It's the bullpen. If they upgraded it, they'd have a much better chance of winning games. I don't know if Melvin has options and is foolishly selecting the wrong guys every time, but I doubt it.

I don't know either. But sometimes pushing the reset button can't hurt.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I heard Melvin do an interview on MLB radio before the Pirates series, and he said this has been the most difficult season of his managing career. I wonder if they’re going to fire him at the all star break.

3X manager of the year award winner, but usually with a weaker team that overachieves. Unless he's changed personality and people handling in San Diego, I don't see how he could be fired.

 

[moondog80]

3X manager of the year award winner, but usually with a weaker team that overachieves. Unless he's changed personality and people handling in San Diego, I don't see how he could be fired.

SD has a lot invested in this year, they have to do *something*.

I'm not endorsing the logic, but this is how these things usually go.

 

[Max Power]

The worst (perhaps stressful?) part for them is that X and Machado will be on the books for a looooong, loooooong time. The ink on those contracts is barely dry.

Machado tried to help them out by saying he'd opt out of his contract after this year, but then they gave him another 11 years and $350 million.

 

[Niastri]

Looking at his page, I see 11 black ink marks. (One of which is GIDP, which surely can't count?).

If we exclude the "2020 not-even-a-half-season," he's led the league twice in walks, and once in IBB (which seems a subset.) He led in .OBP once.

Anyway, what are the other blank ink marks? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sotoju01.shtml

Baseball reference uses the Bill James black ink grey ink points method. Soto's batting title earned him 4 black ink points, his 3 BB titles (counting this season prematurely) earned him 6 points (2 each), his slugging title 3 points and his OPS and other titles earned him nothing.

My point is that he's already halfway to a surefire HoF career and he's still several years before his prime.

If you only count a generational talent as the single best player in a generation, Trout put that out of reach for everybody... I think of it as "The kind of guy a team is lucky to get once in a generation."

By my standard Soto fits. Trout is on the path to join Ruth, Williams and very few others as the greatest ever... Soto is a step down, clearly.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

And a severely under-performing lineup, everyone but Soto, Kim, and Tatis has been much worse than expected with X Machado and Carpender being the biggest culprits. Overall they've been a league average offense when with as much talent as they have you'd expect them to be one of the best. It gets even worse when you look at the clutch hitting stats, the whole team has been god awful with risp and late and close.

Yup. I'm in San Diego and watch almost every game. Their bullpen has not been good outside of Hader. Losing Suarez to injury really hurt. They need at least 2 more good arms in that bullpen, even if Suarez comes back. They've also had some random injuries with the starters. Musgrove was late to arrive this season due to breaking his toe in ST. Darvish missed the first week of the season due to the WBC. Wacha is hurt, Lugo was hurt. That's to be somewhat expected with pitchers, but they haven't really had their full rotation healthy at the same time.

And then the lineup has severely under-performed. Manny has been the biggest culprit, but outside of a hot first week or two, X hasn't delivered for them either. Carpenter/Cruz has been a pitiful DH combo. They've had to rely on Gary Sanchez at C. Grisham has been a sub-par hitter even with him playing better over the past few weeks. Kim has been fine but he's inconsistent. And Cronenworth is completely lost at the plate.

It's a mess.

 

[chawson]

Then again, your 2026 Boston Red Sox:

RH Bleis RF
LH Devers 3B
LH Soto LF
RH Yorke 2B
LH Yoshida DH
LH Casas 1B
RH Rafaela CF
LH Mayer SS
RH Wong C

Yes to this lineup pretty much exactly.

To the best of anyone’s ability to predict any team three years from now, this is an excellent lineup, and we have almost all the pieces.

FTR, I’d go

LH Yoshida DH
LH Soto LF
RH Bleis RF
LH Devers 3B
RH Yorke 2B
LH Casas 1B
RH Rafaela CF
LH Mayer SS
RH Wong C

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Where’s Roman Anthony, though? Is Story on the IL?

It’s fun to hope on prospects, but it seems a tad optimistic to pencil in a 19 year old who had a 600 OPS in A ball this year into a lineup three years from now, batting third, and call it an excellent lineup.

And I hope to hell this post is pinned somewhere three years from now when the Sox win it all.

 

[PapnMillsy]

It seems that the teams that spend a lot though, do tend to do better and be able to sustain success longer than teams like the Royals or Pirates that can open a window through prolonged down times in which they draft well, then those drafted players all come up together.... .then the window shuts and they have to start over again. Teams that spend, but find themselves maybe one or two missing parts short of capitalizing on a great team seem to be the ones that blow it all on a long-term contract that tends to backfire. I dunno... totally shit-shooting here but it makes sense. You put together a good team that can consistently get into the playoffs but you see your team as perhaps just one bonafide start player short of as-close-as-you-can-get-to-a-guarantee-WS-victory team and you get that guy no matter the cost.
I hope nobody is reading this as advocating Henry/Bloom to cut payroll and not spend money. It feels like every time a poster discusses "spending doesn't equate winning" that the poster is accused of worrying about Henry's wallet. I don't give a fuck what he spends but I do know that he clearly has a budget and within that budget, I'd like him to spend smartly and not be tied up by any contracts like Sale's. One of those can damage a wealthy team... two would destroy it. If Ohtani or Soto sign here for what some are speculating on their cost and they grossly underperform (I suspect Soto won't age well, Ohtani will end up injured too often) that's it. That team has knee-capped itself long term and will be possibly able to compete with a young core that performs exceedingly well... but then they won't have the funds to sign those guys long term the way the Braves did.
I'm hoping Casas and Bello both get offered 8-10 year contracts after this season.

The Red Sox had the likes of Pablo and Hanley taking up payroll space at the same time and it far from crippled them. Heck, they literally paid Pablo to go away halfway through his deal. Those deals will never truly handcuff a team like the Red Sox. And if you’re afraid make any deals like that again because some of them went poorly, then they will never sign another elite FA ever again and will likely toil in mediocrity for perpetuity.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The Red Sox had the likes of Pablo and Hanley taking up payroll space at the same time and it far from crippled them. Heck, they literally paid Pablo to go away halfway through his deal. Those deals will never truly handcuff a team like the Red Sox. And if you’re afraid make any deals like that again because some of them went poorly, then they will never sign another elite FA ever again and will likely toil in mediocrity for perpetuity.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yoshima02.shtml

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yoshima02.shtml

The key word here is “elite”. I like Yoshida, but he’s on pace for a <2 fWAR season, less than Jarren Duran.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

The key word here is “elite”. I like Yoshida, but he’s on pace for a <2 fWAR season, less than Jarren Duran.

I saw this the other day somewhere else in the board. I know he's slumped a bit recently, but I was astonished to see this given his batting stats. Is his defense really that bad?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I saw this the other day somewhere else in the board. I know he's slumped a bit recently, but I was astonished to see this given his batting stats. Is his defense really that bad?

It's certainly not helping his cause. -0.9 UZR so far in 44 games in LF.

Someone pointed out in another thread that Masa and Verdugo have essentially been identical at the plate. Dugie is at 2.2 fWAR while being above average defensively (5.6 UZR).

 

[Rovin Romine]

The key word here is “elite”. I like Yoshida, but he’s on pace for a <2 fWAR season, less than Jarren Duran.

So I should have taken him to task for saying Hanley and Sandoval were elite FA contracts?

 

[chawson]

I saw this the other day somewhere else in the board. I know he's slumped a bit recently, but I was astonished to see this given his batting stats. Is his defense really that bad?

I think there's a good amount of Green Monster goofiness baked into those fielding stats. Yoshida is currently a -4 OAA in left field. Verdugo was a -4 in left last year, and is currently a +2 playing a much more spacious and difficult right field. Maybe Verdugo just improved that much, but I don't know. Pham was a -5 OAA left fielder for us over two months last year, and is currently a -1 left fielder in New York. Benintendi was a -10 OAA left fielder for us in 2019 and -1 in 2021 for the Royals.

My point is not that Yoshida is secretly a good outfielder. But something about Fenway's left field either makes everyone worse or seem worse out there, and Yoshida is not so bad relative to whoever else that might be.

Of course, that's not reflected in his UZR or WAR, which compares him to all outfielders.

 

[scottyno]

I think there's a good amount of Green Monster goofiness baked into those fielding stats. Yoshida is currently a -4 OAA in left field. Verdugo was a -4 in left last year, and is currently a +2 playing a much more spacious and difficult right field. Maybe Verdugo just improved that much, but I don't know. Pham was a -5 OAA left fielder for us over two months last year, and is currently a -1 left fielder in New York. Benintendi was a -10 OAA left fielder for us in 2019 and -1 in 2021 for the Royals.

My point is not that Yoshida is secretly a good outfielder. But something about Fenway's left field either makes everyone worse or seem worse out there, and Yoshida is not so bad relative to whoever else that might be.

Of course, that's not reflected in his UZR or WAR, which compares him to all outfielders.

Maybe their range is considered bad because playing in LF at Fenway you're never going to be asked to cover much ground because you can't really go back very far?

 

[PapnMillsy]

So I should have taken him to task for saying Hanley and Sandoval were elite FA contracts?

I never said they were elite contracts. But they paid a ton for nothing, considerably worse contracts than Sale. Yes, he’s been hurt for most of this contract but give me the guy who actually is good when he plays and has made considerable effort to come back from numerous injuries. That’s mentally wearing on anyone. Castillo is another disastrous deal I forgot to mention, though they lucked out with being able to bury him in Pawtucket so it wasn’t a luxury tax hit.

 

[AlNipper49]

The Sale one is rough. It may be the sideways Sox mega contract that I still kinda sorta defend today. If you are going to swing and miss you swing and miss on elite pitchers. You don’t win a World Series without an elite pitcher (usually).

They are the most important, and most scarce, resource.

It really sucks that the extension didn’t work out.

 

[PapnMillsy]

The Sale one is rough. It may be the sideways Sox mega contract that I still kinda sorta defend today. If you are going to swing and miss you swing and miss on elite pitchers. You don’t win a World Series without an elite pitcher (usually).

They are the most important, and most scarce, resource.

It really sucks that the extension didn’t work out.

Yeah it does and no one is more mad about it than him. We’ve seen how good he still is when healthy though so it’s not like they misevaluated him in the sense of him falling off a cliff talent wise, ala Lincecum. Some of these injuries have been very flukey too. Not exactly possible to predict a guy’s entire season would be derailed by 3 fluke things like a stress reaction in the rib, a line drive breaking a finger on the pitching hand and then falling off a bike to break the other wrist.