Dame Time heading to Milwaukee
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
As a Celtics fan, I don't love it, but neither am I quaking in my boots.
As an NBA fan, I love it:
As an NBA fan, I love it:
- Portland gets 85 cents on the dollar instead of falling victim to player-empowerment-era hijinks
- After MIL lost in round 1, I wrote that the Bucks need to seriously revaluate "Bucks culture": building around big, D-first players with little speed who put all the crunch-time scoring burden on Giannis. I even suggested they trade Holiday for a rich man's CJ McCollum type. Well, Dame is Russian oligarch's CJ McCollum. So, good for them for taking the plunge-- I'm excited to see how it works out
- To hell with Pat Riley
Evan Turner
@thekidet
·
3h
Portland, buy Jrue out so he can sign to the Celtics I'm trying to see something real quick
@thekidet
·
3h
Portland, buy Jrue out so he can sign to the Celtics I'm trying to see something real quick
I can see why Vegas now has the Bucks at title favorites. Had the Cs ended up with Tatum, Brown, Porzingis and Dame, they would have been viewed thusly. I'm disappointed that Brad didn't make that happen and wonder how hard he tried. And if the Cs were in the mix, what the sticking points might have been.
And I hate that my opinion is a bit like Perk's.
And I hate that my opinion is a bit like Perk's.
I may have missed this earlier in the thread. But, I love reading that the Blazers never re-engaged the Heat in substantive trade talks after their initial conversations in July and just traded Lillard to the Bucks without talking to Miami again. I mean, who knows how true that is because I'm sure these beat reporters are probably constantly played by their sources, but still. If this was Danny Ainge instead of Pat Riley, I can only imagine the kind of shrieking "DANNY SHOULD HAVE PICKED UP THE PHONE AND MADE IT HAPPEN!" type of reaction. That reads to me like Riley overplayed his hand, even with Lillard and his agent trying to force it. Extremely funny and good result in that respect. Terrifying and bad in the sense that the Bucks will probably be better than they were last year.
This trade also not only takes Lillard off the market as a potential whale that Riley could chase but Giannis as well.
This was my thought for a Jrue destination. Its kind of an elegant solution for all involved except maybe CP3.
Probably because the Celtics didn't have as much to offer since they weren't able to give up their 2nd or 3rd best player in the trade. Also, Portland should bet that Milwaukee will be terrible in 28-30. Celtics not as guaranteed to be awful.
Portland can reroute CP3 and get some additional assets. Or hold onto his expiring until the deadline
We were never getting Dame, so "not Miami" is a second best outcome for us.
I'm sure Brad will be in on trying to get Jrue but we probably won't end up the highest bidder. But this underscores how much of a sliding-doors moment it was for us to have the Brogdon-for-Porzingis deal fall through and then have to trade Smart away instead. Truly, as Brad once said, if you ever let Smart go you'll spend the next 5 years trying to replace him.
I'm sure Brad will be in on trying to get Jrue but we probably won't end up the highest bidder. But this underscores how much of a sliding-doors moment it was for us to have the Brogdon-for-Porzingis deal fall through and then have to trade Smart away instead. Truly, as Brad once said, if you ever let Smart go you'll spend the next 5 years trying to replace him.
My guess is that the Heat simply didn't have enough to beat this offer---I imagine they made clear Bam/Butler aren't going anywhere and I honestly don't think they hav a path to giving more value than Portland got in this deal.
And it's very easy to believe the Heat, backed by dame and his agent and whatever tampering surely occurred, believed they could hold the line and still get the player too
Yeah, those Bucks picks are pretty valuable. Factor in Jrue and it would literally have been impossible for Miami to beat that offer without including Bam/Butler.
Dang, usually I ignore all trade speculation, but that sure does make some sense. And for Portland they could then flip CP3 as there would still be a market for him...
when does jrues contract expire? I thought the cp3 thing was to acquire someone competent but more importantly his contract ends soon thus mitigating their impending cap doom.
Do the Heat have enough to get Jrue? It seems like the Blazers just don’t like what the Heat have to offer
Makes sense for GS for sure, Jrue is way better than CP3 at this point…but do Moody/Kuminga have a lot of value?
They’re young but if I was Portland I’d be looking for someone better than them. Or at least more interesting picks.
I think you're totally right on both counts. I posted that link because I'm amused by the weird double standard Danny Ainge was held to during his tenure here when things like this happen to every PBO/GM in the league. And, of course, Danny certainly never had the benefit of weather/food/night life/taxes that give the Heat an advantage and Danny never had the cheat code of stars demanding specifically to come to Boston.
It's more of a general point that some people in the media, and even on this board, think that the basketball/baseball/football operations people can just make things happen and they have failed if they aren't able to trade for player X/Y/Z, which is baby brain stuff that is worthy of mockery.
Dame should be thankful for this trade because he can go back to his repairing his carefully manicured good guy image, going to Miami would have been a heel turn.
Last edited:
Who knows, but not liking what the Heat have for Dame could be a totally different thing than what Portland is willing to accept for Jrue. It's not like the trade with Milwaukee was Dame for Jrue straight up.
Still, the competition for him could be fierce. I'm intrigued by the idea that Philly could figure something out and also solve their Harden problem.
This year then a PO for 24/25 at $37 million. I can't see many reasons for him not to exercise that option, especially with how the middle is getting squeezed with the cap
I think it's really interesting that two of what Lowe calls "inner circle" NBA contenders have traded their best defensive player in search for more offense. It's particularly interesting in MIL's case since the team was kind of mess before Jrue got there, and at the very least BOS got a rim protector they kind of needed.
I don't know what defense Adrian Griffin was going to install in MIL but he doesn't seem to have a ton of options anymore.
I don't know what defense Adrian Griffin was going to install in MIL but he doesn't seem to have a ton of options anymore.
Does trying hard mean giving up Rob? Or Jaylen Brown?
I don't really get this trade for the Bucks. RAPTOR and DARKO both have Jrue either above Lillard or very close behind. I don't recall ever watching the Bucks last year and thinking you know what this team needs, a modest upgrade of Jrue Holliday. Especially a modest upgrade that costs them definitely. It all looks like rearranging deck chairs than making the team all that much better.
Was Smart still the C's best defender? Felt like his D fell off quite a bit last year... and that he improvised a lot in the playoffs on key possessions in an attempt to force things to happen rather than play solid team defense.
Porzyingis should be an upgrade for sure on offense.. but also allows you to play Rob and Al less minutes which should also help... while also allowing White to get more time. I wonder how much of a downgrade White is on D.. and how much any deficiency is taken up by his ability to bring the ball up faster.
In overall value, it's a lot closer than most people think. But...in fit for Milwaukee, this is gold. Giannis is the a top transition player in the world and has developed more half-court ability, but they're still sometimes a bit of a slog when teams can take away transition (e.g. playoffs). Jrue doesn't help there, but Dame does bigtime. Man is an iso god when things need creating. This is great for them.
Jrue for Malcolm/Rob works in Fanspo.
I was listening to The Athletic NBA podcast and they had the Bucks best writer on. He mentioned how Giannis’s usage was way up last year and everybody went under picks when he set them. Giannis setting a pick for Dame should really open up their half-court offense.
The trade off is that Griffen had talked about being more aggressive on the perimeter on defense and that won’t happen now. Giannis is going to have to cover some better players instead of resting on defense to make up for losing Jrue.
The trade off is that Griffen had talked about being more aggressive on the perimeter on defense and that won’t happen now. Giannis is going to have to cover some better players instead of resting on defense to make up for losing Jrue.
The only caveat here for me is that Jrue can't end up in Miami.
I've never worried much about the C's being able to stop teams on the defensive end come playoff time. For me, most of the C's bad losses in the playoffs come because of their inability to not deal with the Jrue's/Lowry's/Butlers of the world when the C's are on offense.
Jrue was a pest of the highest order on defense, and then he was backed up in rim protection by Giannis and Brook. I suspect the C's, if they actually get coached correctly, will fucking hunt Dame come playoff time in PnR's with KP and Brown/Tatum. Simply put, Dame Lillard cannot guard anyone on our team coming off a pick. Nobody.
Meanwhile, the C's still have a roster than can switch anyone at any time on the defensive end.
I am not seeing how this makes the Bucks anything other than a juggernaut in the regular season, and probably the #1 seed, but I'm not seeing it in the playoffs.
I've never worried much about the C's being able to stop teams on the defensive end come playoff time. For me, most of the C's bad losses in the playoffs come because of their inability to not deal with the Jrue's/Lowry's/Butlers of the world when the C's are on offense.
Jrue was a pest of the highest order on defense, and then he was backed up in rim protection by Giannis and Brook. I suspect the C's, if they actually get coached correctly, will fucking hunt Dame come playoff time in PnR's with KP and Brown/Tatum. Simply put, Dame Lillard cannot guard anyone on our team coming off a pick. Nobody.
Meanwhile, the C's still have a roster than can switch anyone at any time on the defensive end.
I am not seeing how this makes the Bucks anything other than a juggernaut in the regular season, and probably the #1 seed, but I'm not seeing it in the playoffs.
Oh my god, this is glorious. Awwww, are your widdle feelings hurt because you and Dame tampered to force a move and it didn't work out the way you wanted it to?
I actually like Butler, but this is simply too good.
Yeah, they match up much better than the Cs as they have the big contracts to send them to salary match Jrue (Lowry or Herro). Seems like thr Cs would need to attach either Horford or Timelord to Brogdon make the salaries match - and it’s not clear it would be wise to weaken their front court like that..
You think Lillard is only a modest upgrade over Holliday? That surprises me. I am not energetic enough right now to do competent research but my sense was that Liilard was way ahead of Holliday and many others of their ilk. But maybe I underestimate Holliday.
They aren’t trading Rob. The Cs have been smart about balancing the roster, they aren’t going to create an obvious deficiency just to add another guard. I do love Jrue in Boston, just not for Rob.
The reason Rob is necessary is because they can't match Jrue's salary for just flotsam - any offer would need to include both Brogdon and either Rob or Al. Rob over Al lowers the cost in draft picks but adding either would weaken the front court.
The lesson the league is apparently taking from DEN is that in the current NBA offense wins championship (not an original thought; I've heard from other people). DEN is littered with not great defenders, but you know what? They don't need to be great defenders when they have a basically unstoppable PnR duo - Murray and Jokic. Basically, the calculation is that DEN's defense against the other team's offense is better than the other team's defense against DEN's offense because DEN's offense is so good.
MIL is banking that the Dame/Giannis PnR is going to be basically unstoppable. That's not the worst bet in the world. Yes their defense is going to be significantly worse, but they hope it will not be as bad as how much better their offense - particularly their crunch time offense (look at how many double-digit leads they lost to MIA in the playoffs).
As for the bolded, I have to think that the Cs aren't going to playing a switching defense when KP is in the lineup. White also is great 1-2 and possibly 3 but he doesn't have the heft that Smart does so he's not really going to be great getting switched on to bigger guys. But I think the Cs calculation is that KP is going to make their offense so much better that they can play drop coverage and teams aren't going to beat them from the mid-range.
Hopefully they are correct.
Maybe I should have said, "Has the best defensive reputation". At any rate, point is that two contenders just traded great defense for (hopefully in the Cs case) great offense. Will be interesting to see how it works out.
I'm not sure that it's just defense vs. offense, although that's definitely a component. Being able to run a halfcourt offense is pretty key in the playoffs, and that's really been a drain on Milwaukee. Losing Jrue is obviously not great, but gaining a guy who's basically a one-man halfcourt offense is huge. Nevermind the PNR possibilities. Not 100% sure that it's a winning bet, but it's understandable why Milwaukee thinks that it is.
To add to this, the only Nuggets player who was considered a really bad defender was MPJ and he stepped up his defense pretty dramatically in the playoffs. Aaron Gordon is a fantastic defender, KCP is very good.
Maybe the calculus has swung more towards very good offense than previous years but I don't think it's incredibly dramatic. It's still incredibly tough to win consistently in the playoffs if you have a player that is a complete defensive liability that can be hunted mercilessly.
On a related note, Jrue's career playoff TS% as a Buck (in 1566 minutes, on 23.0 USG) was .476 (.482, .461, .491 in their three playoff runs). Elite as Jrue is defensively, that's tough to overcome from your 2nd/3rd option. If not for Kevin Durant's "big-ass foot," I feel like Jrue would be taking a lot more heat for his offensive ineptitude in the playoffs.
It's actually a pretty big win for all the teams involved, but the Bucks getting Dame accomplished a lot for them. They were either going to lose Holiday at the end of this year or be forced to extend him well past his prime years. Now they have Dame locked up (also well past his prime years) but he's simply a more dynamic player than Holiday and gives them a chance to have a top tier offense. And, much like the Holiday trade before this, this keeps Giannis happy.
One pretty big problem for the Bucks is they have traded virtually all of their draft capital for the foreseeable future, so they have little flexibility moving forward. Those pick swaps the Blazers got are likely going to look like gold as the Bucks are almost certainly going to be bad during those years.
And for all of the crowing going on about how good the Bucks are now, the Celtics have a similar level of roster talent, a younger core, and a lot more assets.
One pretty big problem for the Bucks is they have traded virtually all of their draft capital for the foreseeable future, so they have little flexibility moving forward. Those pick swaps the Blazers got are likely going to look like gold as the Bucks are almost certainly going to be bad during those years.
And for all of the crowing going on about how good the Bucks are now, the Celtics have a similar level of roster talent, a younger core, and a lot more assets.
Jrue makes $36.8 this year which means we'd need to send out $29.4 in salary. Brogdon is $22.5, meaning we're less than $7M short. You can accomplish that with flotsam, like Pritchard ($4.0) + guarantee Kornet ($2.4) + literally any end-of-bencher. Dame ($45.6 this year) was quite another story.
Whether "Brogdon + Pritch + picks + flotsam" is anything close to Portland's best offer for Jrue is another story. But we can make the offer without having to include Rob or Al.
Murray isn't known as a good defender. Jokic isn't considered a good individual defender (though better in help and as a rim protector). DEN I believe was 15th in defensive rating last year.
They were not a great defensive team. (Yes I understand they played better in the playoffs.)
My point isn't that teams are saying, "We have too much defense, let's trade defense for offense." Rather, I'm saying that MIL and BOS recognized they need better offense and are willing to trade some defense for it. Hopefully that's more clear.
We're above the apron, it's 110% +250k. Celtics have to send out at least 33.23M.
FWIW, Hollinger's latest from The Athletic:
https://theathletic.com/4908778/2023/09/28/hollinger-damian-lillard-jrue-holiday/
Here's the section on the C's and Holiday:
3. To Boston for a pupu platter: The Celtics can get to a salary match on Holiday, but it’s complicated. Malcolm Brogdon would be involved, but he makes $22 million in 2025-26 and that’s $22 million more than the Blazers want to take back. Additionally, the second contract in a Boston deal has to be either Robert Williams or Al Horford, which nukes the Celtics’ frontcourt depth … unless they make the salary match Brogdon, Payton Pritchard, Luke Kornet, Sam Hauser, Jordan Walsh and a signed-and-traded Blake Griffininstead. A six-for-one. Whew.
Unlike a lot of contenders, the Celtics still have all their future picks to trade, plus they turned Marcus Smart into a future first from Golden State that is now available to put in a deal like this. Boston could offer five firsts if it wanted: 2024, ’26, ’28 (lesser of their own or San Antonio’s), and ’30, plus the Warriors’ top-4 protected pick this year.
The problem for Portland is Boston is good and should be for many years with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown still in their mid-20s. The picks the Blazers would get would almost certainly be in the 20s. Ditto for that Warriors pick, too. It almost doesn’t matter the quantity, because what are the odds of getting a lottery-level pick quality out of this? I’d much rather own fewer end-of-decade picks from, say, the Clippers.
Between that and the fact that extending Holiday would make the Celtics shockingly expensive in two years, I’m a little less bullish on this one. But if Boston could pull this off while keeping Williams and Horford out of the trade, oh my goodness this defense. Nobody would ever score on them. And in terms of the sheer quantity of draft picks, this is the way for Portland to get the most.
https://theathletic.com/4908778/2023/09/28/hollinger-damian-lillard-jrue-holiday/
Here's the section on the C's and Holiday:
3. To Boston for a pupu platter: The Celtics can get to a salary match on Holiday, but it’s complicated. Malcolm Brogdon would be involved, but he makes $22 million in 2025-26 and that’s $22 million more than the Blazers want to take back. Additionally, the second contract in a Boston deal has to be either Robert Williams or Al Horford, which nukes the Celtics’ frontcourt depth … unless they make the salary match Brogdon, Payton Pritchard, Luke Kornet, Sam Hauser, Jordan Walsh and a signed-and-traded Blake Griffininstead. A six-for-one. Whew.
Unlike a lot of contenders, the Celtics still have all their future picks to trade, plus they turned Marcus Smart into a future first from Golden State that is now available to put in a deal like this. Boston could offer five firsts if it wanted: 2024, ’26, ’28 (lesser of their own or San Antonio’s), and ’30, plus the Warriors’ top-4 protected pick this year.
The problem for Portland is Boston is good and should be for many years with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown still in their mid-20s. The picks the Blazers would get would almost certainly be in the 20s. Ditto for that Warriors pick, too. It almost doesn’t matter the quantity, because what are the odds of getting a lottery-level pick quality out of this? I’d much rather own fewer end-of-decade picks from, say, the Clippers.
Between that and the fact that extending Holiday would make the Celtics shockingly expensive in two years, I’m a little less bullish on this one. But if Boston could pull this off while keeping Williams and Horford out of the trade, oh my goodness this defense. Nobody would ever score on them. And in terms of the sheer quantity of draft picks, this is the way for Portland to get the most.
I think this trade makes the Bucks better for sure, but people are sleeping a bit on how critical Jrue was in making the Brook Lopez-based schemes good.
If you don't have Holiday destroying people at the point of attack, that drop coverage becomes a lot easier to go after. Yeah, you might not get tons of layups, but everything else good is going to be very available.
And that's before we get to how hard big wings are going to bully Dame.
If you don't have Holiday destroying people at the point of attack, that drop coverage becomes a lot easier to go after. Yeah, you might not get tons of layups, but everything else good is going to be very available.
And that's before we get to how hard big wings are going to bully Dame.