Dame Time heading to Milwaukee
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
The issue is...who would the target be? I can't come up with a good target for Brogdon+picks. Unfortunately, I am not sure that time is on the Celtics side either, their window is basically 2 years.
Using the Brad parlance, the target would be a ball handler or a big
Maybe to the Magic for WCJ? That's not an ideal fit but it is cover for the brittle front court. However, then the backcourt is really thin.
I haven't found a guard that is..
-On a team willing to sell (which at this point of the year is POR, CHA, WAS and a bunch of maybes)
-The required salary slot
-Into or close to his prime
-Good fit for the team
It's a very valid question. I've spent a decent amount of time looking for that guy and there simply isn't much. One guy who has intrigued me for a while is De'Andre Hunter from the Hawks. He's young and signed for 4 years and is a good perimeter defender who'd be a nice fit next to the Jay's. The Hawks have a lot of good wings in Bey, Bogdan, AJ Griffin so it's possible they might be interested in having Brogdon as the steadying presence off the bench. Hunter isn't a creator so you'd have to find a bench creator in a separate move but he's a solid 3&D guy. My "pie in the sky" option remains OG Anunoby but that's a pipe dream.
Also dream of mine. A White/OG/Brown/Tatum/Porzingis is such a defensive and offensive behemoth.
TOR does need a PG though.
Jrue to TOR
OG + filler to BOS
Brogdon + picks + filler to POR
I may be in the minority, but I think Celtics need Brogdon as a shooter and ballhandler/creator so unless what is coming back has those traits, I don't think it's great to deal him.
I love that, except if Brogdon goes out and OG comes in, we still need a PG too.
I agree with this. Ideally you find a better version of Brogdon (better creator/defender but still a good shooter). I have literally no idea who this player is unfortunately
Not sure exactly how much trade value JK or Moody have, but I personally would not part with either for the marginal upgrade of CP3 to Holiday, let alone both. Both are the kind of versatile, athletic big wings you need to thrive in the NBA; both are still really young; and both were quite good last season for 20 year-olds (probably better than Jaylen Brown in his age 20 season, for example).
Edit: with Poole shipped off, the Warriors have a potentially serious deficiency in athletic guys who can put pressure on the rim and get to the stripe. I think implicit in the Poole/CP3 swap — beyond the desire higher IQ play, fewer turnovers, and salary relief — was the hope that either JK or Moody (more likely Jon but potentially both) would be able to step into that secondary scoring role offensively, while of course holding up much better than JP on D. Basically, taking the same path young Jaylen took, give or take.
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It really is too bad that Lonzo Ball has gone full Brandon Roy. He was the guy. Salary is right there with Brogdon's, only about to be 26 years-old, was really improving as a shooter, etc.
Considering that Toronto wouldn’t include OG in the Dame trade I can’t see them moving him for Jrue.
I think the problem with any Brogdon trade is that the KP trade finally balanced the roster, there is no real reason to trade Brogdon, and any deal is unlikely to make the rotation better.
Now you could make a case that it makes sense to downgrade 6th man Brogdon to get a younger cost controlled replacement given the tax situation long term, but that isn't what people seem to be suggesting, they're mostly swinging for star level vets we don't really have minutes for.
Now you could make a case that it makes sense to downgrade 6th man Brogdon to get a younger cost controlled replacement given the tax situation long term, but that isn't what people seem to be suggesting, they're mostly swinging for star level vets we don't really have minutes for.
I disagree the CP3 to Jrue upgrade is marginal at this point, CP3 is much older and on a hard decline.
The CP3 fit with GS is clunky at best... they honestly got him because he is an expiring contract and could get rid of Poole more than they want him as a player. Having the expiring contract be "HOFer Chris Paul" made it sound better, but it was mostly just a salary dump.
Sure they are trying to make it work and saying all the right things, and maybe it will. But Jrue fits so much better for them. He's not a big athletic wing, but he is still such a good defender he can definitely share the floor with Curry much more easily.
I think a reason to trade Brogdon is to get younger and reduce the injury risk of a team that already has a ton of injury risk in its frontcourt. From a talent and production standpoint, he'd be hard to upgrade. From a health reliability standpoint, he represents some risk. The Celtics were actually pretty fortunate to get 67 games from Brogdon last year. The playoff injury sucked but that felt more flukish in nature. But the guy has missed a lot of games in his career (about 30% in total). That is at least where my interest in trading Brogdon lies.
Radsoxfan already said it, but CP3 to Holiday is far from a marginal upgrade. CP3 probably should be coming off the bench at this point in his career, doubly so when the other guard is Curry. Holiday was a deserving all-star last year, and he's 3 inches and 30 pounds bigger than CP3 (and 5 years younger). He actually makes sense playing next to Curry, CP3 does not (HOFers may yet figure it out, but probably not with a combined age north of 70).
And Moody/Kuminga may have been better than Jaylen as a rookie, but by year 2 (which Moody and Kuminga just completed), Jaylen was clearly better. More points and better shooting while starting 70 games for a 55 win team. More importantly, the Warriors are in a different place than the Celtics were at that time - the Warriors need to maximize their chances at another Curry title in the next 2-3 years, not gamble on the (small) chance that Kuminga or Moody are anywhere near as good as Holiday is right now.
Just to pile one: the upgrade from Paul to Jrue is larger for GS than just about any team in the league, since adding size/defense and a bit of off-ball ability is worth a ton when you already have Curry. So even if the difference in the abstract between Paul and Holliday is marginal (and, to be clear, it's a lot more) the GS context makes it bigger too.
I say all that liking the Paul pickup for GS, to be clear.
I say all that liking the Paul pickup for GS, to be clear.
I personally love that once upon a time Sam Hinkie traded a young, cheap All-Star in Jrue Holiday to jumpstart the process, and then Jrue went on to be the 2nd best player on a championship team, and then still got traded for a top 10 talent. That top 10 guy was someone Philly now needs and wants but doesn’t have assets for, and their consolation may be to go out and reacquire Jrue. It’s poetic, really.
It also needs to be mentioned that the stock for both Moody and Kuminga took an absolute nosedive last year. ..to the point that I am not sure if Portland would even accept Kuminga, Paul and Moody for Holiday unless the Warriors threw in a pick or two.
100%. It really sucks not only because he was a perfect Celtics target (as you said) but also because he was just really fun to watch play basketball. Guys with his court vision and passing gifts are a dying breed
If Portland gets a decent return for Jrue, they are going to come out so far ahead than whatever they could have gotten from Miami.
That cluster of owning the 3 unprotected Milwaukee picks from 28-30 already is massive value, honestly better than anything Miami was offering. And they got Holiday too.
If they get a couple more picks and a decent young player or two... strong work.
That cluster of owning the 3 unprotected Milwaukee picks from 28-30 already is massive value, honestly better than anything Miami was offering. And they got Holiday too.
If they get a couple more picks and a decent young player or two... strong work.
All good points re: CP3 v Jrue.
To be clear, I'm all for a CP3 for Jrue upgrade, for all the reasons mentioned (upgrade in size, D, relative youth, and on-court fit with Steph, not to mention likability). But if we lost Kuminga in that deal, we’re back to zero athletic guys who can really pressure the rim, get to the FT stripe, diversify the offense, and relieve some of the pressure on 35 y.o. Steph to be the primary scorer 24/7. To use an extreme comp: Jrue is obviously miles better than Brad Wanamaker, but the idea replacing Kuminga with an aging, low octane, defensive-minded “steady game manager” like Jrue gives me unpleasant memories of the low-octane-offense Wanamaker era ca. 2021, just before the blossoming of Poole into a high-level scorer.
Kuminga averaged 5.8 free throw attempts per 36 at age 19; Poole last season (for his other flaws) averaged 6.1. Jrue last season averaged 2.9.
Jrue's .476 TS in his three Bucks playoff runs (in 1566 minutes), on high-ish usage, also sticks in my craw. His regular season numbers with MIL are much better than that (a stellar .590), so if he can keep that up, awesome … but what if at age 33.5 he regresses towards to the .500-.540 TS guy he was for the bulk of his career before joining forces with Giannis, who just happens to be the league’s #1 rim-pressurer?
I dunno … all that, plus reports of Jrue pondering retirement, give me serious pause about selling the farm for him. I like the roster a lot as it stands — not just the OG starting five, but the fit of the five guys behind them: old man CP3 running the show, his Phoenix running mate Saric at C to stretch the floor and make high IQ plays, with Moody, Payton, and particularly Kuminga slashing to the rim and flying around everywhere.
As for "JK as young JB": predicting which young players will keep improving in years 3-4-5-6 the way Jaylen did is a bit of fools errand; for every JB, there are loads of young guys who stall out or regress. But Kuminga's similar physical profile to JB, and the fact that in his first two seasons (combined) he was the better rebounder, passer, and scorer — despite entering the league a full year younger — I don't think it's a terrible bet, either. And you guys know how it is with young, super-toolsy guys who you've watched come up. Next season's Warriors team instantly gets much less interesting to me if Kuminga isn't part of it.
To be clear, I'm all for a CP3 for Jrue upgrade, for all the reasons mentioned (upgrade in size, D, relative youth, and on-court fit with Steph, not to mention likability). But if we lost Kuminga in that deal, we’re back to zero athletic guys who can really pressure the rim, get to the FT stripe, diversify the offense, and relieve some of the pressure on 35 y.o. Steph to be the primary scorer 24/7. To use an extreme comp: Jrue is obviously miles better than Brad Wanamaker, but the idea replacing Kuminga with an aging, low octane, defensive-minded “steady game manager” like Jrue gives me unpleasant memories of the low-octane-offense Wanamaker era ca. 2021, just before the blossoming of Poole into a high-level scorer.
Kuminga averaged 5.8 free throw attempts per 36 at age 19; Poole last season (for his other flaws) averaged 6.1. Jrue last season averaged 2.9.
Jrue's .476 TS in his three Bucks playoff runs (in 1566 minutes), on high-ish usage, also sticks in my craw. His regular season numbers with MIL are much better than that (a stellar .590), so if he can keep that up, awesome … but what if at age 33.5 he regresses towards to the .500-.540 TS guy he was for the bulk of his career before joining forces with Giannis, who just happens to be the league’s #1 rim-pressurer?
I dunno … all that, plus reports of Jrue pondering retirement, give me serious pause about selling the farm for him. I like the roster a lot as it stands — not just the OG starting five, but the fit of the five guys behind them: old man CP3 running the show, his Phoenix running mate Saric at C to stretch the floor and make high IQ plays, with Moody, Payton, and particularly Kuminga slashing to the rim and flying around everywhere.
As for "JK as young JB": predicting which young players will keep improving in years 3-4-5-6 the way Jaylen did is a bit of fools errand; for every JB, there are loads of young guys who stall out or regress. But Kuminga's similar physical profile to JB, and the fact that in his first two seasons (combined) he was the better rebounder, passer, and scorer — despite entering the league a full year younger — I don't think it's a terrible bet, either. And you guys know how it is with young, super-toolsy guys who you've watched come up. Next season's Warriors team instantly gets much less interesting to me if Kuminga isn't part of it.
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I know you put in the caveat, but just for fun....
I think you're pretty severely under valuing Holiday in your assessment, he's a lot more than even a very good game manager. He's a really good All-Star level player right now.
I know he hasn't been great in the playoffs but I don't think thats more predictive than his overall body of work. There is a reason a lot of the eltie teams are very interested in him. If you want to maximize the remaining Steph window, CP3 + Kuminga for Jrue would be a fantastic move.
The other piece of this is Giannis had a 39% usage rate last year. Dame was at 34% last year but historically sits around 30% while Jrue was at 25% last year (high for him too). Dame taking pressure of Giannis on offense should help the Bucks defense. Not as much as the Jrue-Dame swap hurts them. Not close to as much. But it is an aspect that needs to be considered.
I also think the premise that the Smart-Porzingis trade was an offense over defense is wrong. Smart is a great defensive guard, but Porzingis is a very good defensive big that lets the Celtics play bigger overall. A good defensive big is as valuable as a great defensive guard generally. In this case, the stats support that being the case for Smart v. Porzingis. In other words, the Celtics traded for a significant offensive upgrade without sacrificing much, if anything, on defense.
It's funny that you say that. I was thinking yesterday about Marcus (whom I irrationally love) and how we'll miss his end-of-game heroics, and I remembered that there will also be games where we don't so much need the end-of-game heroics anymore because Marcus's replacement is a guy with a .627 TS% last year and 10.8 TOV%. Instead of being up 1 with 10 seconds left in that game, we'll be up 7.
Setting aside the Porzingis/Smart stuff (advanced D metrics aren't that accurate and so comparing a shift from one player who is valued for D to one who has more production on offense may skew to the latter), I don't see this Bucks trade as a D for O thing as much as an opportunistic attempt at expanding their window with Giannis.
It does feel like the league has subtly shifted back towards more O but that just a take. I just think the Bucks understandably want to keep the party going as long as possible.
It does feel like the league has subtly shifted back towards more O but that just a take. I just think the Bucks understandably want to keep the party going as long as possible.
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The Bucks, in particular, are a really interesting test of D vs. O in this context. In one move, they
- massively upgraded their offense, in a way that probably compounds (Giannis will feast on the extra space)
- removed a (the?) key guy in their whole "Brook drops, Giannis lurks" defensive scheme work: Holiday was so critical up top in his ability to stay attached to guards
- added a small guard who is going to get hunted relentlessly. We haven't seen playoff Dame in a few years, and so we don't know just how bad his individual D will be
I think they're better, but it's going to be fascinating. I predict that they will completely dominate teams in the regular season when both Dame and Giannis are out there, leading people to overrate their odds going into the playoffs, when the defensive weaknesses will get targeted a lot harder.
I get why Milwaukee did it, but my initial reaction is that I wasn't sure they actually got better on the court. Thinking more about it, I think it's close - DARKO and RAPTOR show Jrue and Dame as pretty close in terms of impact. I think there's probably some impossible-to-quantify benefits for Milwaukee in terms of Lillard's fit on this specific team - his ability to create offense in the half court, and the way his shooting gravity impacts how teams will have to defend Giannis.
But man...a lot of that hinges on Lillard continuing to be a guy who can create his own offense in the half court. There's no reason to think he won't be this year, but we saw it with Kemba, what happens when a small guard loses enough burst that he struggles to get his own shot off against good defenders. It'll happen to Lillard at some point. Milwaukee's gambling that it won't be soon.
Defensively, I'd be worried about them. Giannis can cure a lot of deficiencies on that end, but teams are definitely going to target Lillard in the playoffs. Lopez's defense is effective, but they don't have any choice but to play him in drop coverage. Teams with perimeter-shooting guards should have a great time against them.
But man...a lot of that hinges on Lillard continuing to be a guy who can create his own offense in the half court. There's no reason to think he won't be this year, but we saw it with Kemba, what happens when a small guard loses enough burst that he struggles to get his own shot off against good defenders. It'll happen to Lillard at some point. Milwaukee's gambling that it won't be soon.
Defensively, I'd be worried about them. Giannis can cure a lot of deficiencies on that end, but teams are definitely going to target Lillard in the playoffs. Lopez's defense is effective, but they don't have any choice but to play him in drop coverage. Teams with perimeter-shooting guards should have a great time against them.
Kemba had a knee condition that really accelerated his decline. I know that's the concern for any guard 6'3 or shorter but I don't think Lillard is going to fall off a cliff the next couple of years unless there's something physical going on. I know he's a bit of a unicorn but Steph Curry's age 33 and 34 seasons were damn good and I feel pretty confident predicting age 35-37 or whatever to be good as well. But he averaged 60 games the last 2 seasons. So, that is where most of my concern would be - the injury/availability side and less the skill decline. I think the defense concerns are 100% valid though. He was a liability there in his prime - he's going to be more of a liability as he exits his prime.
Not every team will be able to exploit Dame but I think the 2023 Celtics are pretty well-positioned to do so. Should be fun to watch.
I don't think MIL cares about whether it is better or worse in the regular season - after all, MIL (under Coach Bud, who seems to covet these kinds of things), has won the most games over something like the last three years (I forget the actual statistic but they've won a lot of games.)
MIL got Dame because their half-court offense stalled out against both BOS and MIA in the last two playoffs when they didn't have Middleton to be a PnR creator like he was when MIL won a championship. MIL will be happy to trade a few regular season wins for playoff wins.
I think it's pretty clear that MIL is a better playoff team today. The question is how much?
One of the odd secrets of the recent Bucks' teams is that their defense hasn't been THAT good. In 3 years with Holiday, their defensive rating was 4th, 14th and 10th, an average of 9.3. Obviously good but not elite, especially considering what they were before he arrived (1st in both 2020 and 2019). I don't quite know what to make of that considering their perimeter defense is about to take a big hit.
I think MIL got Dame because they want GIannis to sign an extension, and he was very active this summer in spreading the "if they don't make moves to help us compete, well I want to win, and it doesn't have to be in MIL" gospel.
I think both are very much true.
I'm guessing that rebalancing a bit in favor of more offense at the expense of some defense is something that Giannis is very happy with. Maybe takes a little pressure off of him in the playoffs. And Dame will be around longer than Jrue likely would have been. This could be a really good window for Milwaukee over the next couple of years, health willing. I'm interested to see how it all comes together.
FWIW, I think that simply ranking defensive rating (or offensive rating) or points scored/allowed for a team doesn't tell the whole story.
For a team that's a legit championship contender like Milwaukee or any other, it's not just about where the bulk offense and defense is coming from. It's also fine tuning. Can the offense step up and get good looks and buckets against a set defense, especially when the refs are more likely to swallow a whistle? Can your team do the same and lock down an alpha wing or alpha ballhandler (are they any left) in fourth quarters when the game is on the line? Miami was 8th in dRTG and 25th in oRTG and went to the finals because they could lock down at each end when it mattered, at least until they met Denver (15th/5th) in the finals who locked down even better.
Milwaukee is losing some of that end-of-game playoff defense with Jrue going out for sure, but they're also getting back an offensive closer. I'm not even sure that we'll be 100% certain of the effects of this until April.
Agreed that simple defensive or offensive rating don't tell the whole story, but they're not nothing, either (especially when the team slipped from 1st to 9th). The more I think about this move, the more it feels like a massive upgrade, especially considering Dame's health and age issues really aren't any different that Jrue's.
It's going to be interesting to see how history views the Giannis years if they don't win another title in the next couple of seasons with Dame, because they caught some incredible breaks in the EC playoffs during their title run. Yeah it always takes a couple of breaks to win the title, but they seemed to be particularly blessed. They probably don't beat the Nets if Kyrie doesn't get hurt in game 4, or if Harden is healthy, and it still took an overtime in game 7 (and Durant's shoes being half a size too big) for them to move on. Then they got to face the Hawks in the EC finals, probably the worst conference finals team since the 2017 Celtics (once IT went down). They legit earned their finals win against a very talented Suns team, but they were thisclose to going 4 straight seasons without even making the conference finals, despite having the consensus best player in the conference mostly healthy and in his prime for the entire run.
I'm glad that Dame didn't go to Miami for a couple reasons, but he gives the Bucks a chance to live up to their regular season hype for the first time in awhile, and that's not great for the Celtics.
I agree that MIL in large part got Dame to keep Giannis but I would be shocked if he signed an extension before October 23, which apparently is the deadline. First, he'll get a lot more money if he signs the extension next year. Second, after what he said, I have to think he's going to want to see how the team does this year. And given the statements Giannis has made, performing better in the playoffs will go a long way to getting Giannis to sign the extension next off-season.
I feel like Milwaukee will be a worse regular season team and a better playoff team, and I'm surprised to see people say the opposite. Sure Jrue's gone, but so is Grayson Allen, and for a team without a lot of depth, losing your 6th man is painful. Also, Bud's gone - his system helped them sleepwalk into 50 wins regardless of who was on the court. Maybe Adrian Griffin is a great coach, but I have a tough time seeing him improving on the regular season results of the last few years with this aging, top heavy roster.
All that said, their offense is going to be nasty when Giannis, Dame, and Middleton are on the floor. This is the first time that Giannis has played with a real high-level ball handler, and I think it lessens the need for him to be a super hero quite a bit. The D gets worse, yeah, but we've basically never seen Dame with a high-level defensive big defending the back line. He has two now. I think that the concerns about him being a turnstile are a little overstated because of that factor and how he'll improve as an individual defender because of it. They should 100% be the favorites to win the eastern conference, though I hesitate to say that they'd beat the Suns or Denver in the finals.
All that said, their offense is going to be nasty when Giannis, Dame, and Middleton are on the floor. This is the first time that Giannis has played with a real high-level ball handler, and I think it lessens the need for him to be a super hero quite a bit. The D gets worse, yeah, but we've basically never seen Dame with a high-level defensive big defending the back line. He has two now. I think that the concerns about him being a turnstile are a little overstated because of that factor and how he'll improve as an individual defender because of it. They should 100% be the favorites to win the eastern conference, though I hesitate to say that they'd beat the Suns or Denver in the finals.
yeah, I didn't mean literally sign an extension, I meant they want to keep him next offseason, and this is the "we did what you wanted" move. Of course, as history has shown, sometimes those actually make it worse, because players are bad GMs, but don't take responsibility if they make a mess.
It's kind of funny to think that despite this move, their title chances still likely hinge on Middleton being healthy, just like they did the last couple of years. Opposing wings just torched this team last year (Tatum/Brown averaged a combined 70 ppg against the Bucks in the regular season, and of course Jimmy went supernova in the playoffs), and a healthy Middleton is an absolute necessity to help slow them down, even more so without Allen and Holiday.
I know it's going to suck and suck to guard the New Bucks, but man it will feel comfy on the other end to not have Holiday getting up into guys.
Against The Bucks games will probably become very high-variance and dependent on hitting lots of 3s, of which there will be many open ones.
I like them leaning into the risk, though. If Middleton goes down, it doesn't matter if Lillard is on or off the team - they're going to struggle to win in the playoffs. But if he's healthy, they're significantly more dangerous in the playoffs because of their offensive versatility.
Not sure if anyone read the Chris Haynes article on the Dame trade. If you haven't, I am not sure if I would recommend reading it or actively staying away from it.
A few things:
- The article byline may as well be Damian Lillard, Aaron Goodwin (Lillard's agent), Andy Elisburg and Pat Riley.
Woj and Shams are mouthpieces too but at least they atttempt to get both sides, Haynes is such a shameless mouthpiece it's kind of disgusting.
-The article is written to make Lillard look very sympathetic and the Blazers as emotional bullies....it 100% fails at that. There's also Giannis quotes at the end to make it look like he didn't push Holiday out and that his press tour where he threatened to leave Milwaukee didn't have anyting to do with this. It also fails at that.
A few things:
- The article byline may as well be Damian Lillard, Aaron Goodwin (Lillard's agent), Andy Elisburg and Pat Riley.
Woj and Shams are mouthpieces too but at least they atttempt to get both sides, Haynes is such a shameless mouthpiece it's kind of disgusting.
-The article is written to make Lillard look very sympathetic and the Blazers as emotional bullies....it 100% fails at that. There's also Giannis quotes at the end to make it look like he didn't push Holiday out and that his press tour where he threatened to leave Milwaukee didn't have anyting to do with this. It also fails at that.
Haynes is known as a Lillard mouthpiece as you are probably well aware. He wrote a pretty glowing longform bio of him about five years ago and since then seems to get all the good Dame Dolla scoops.
Edit: it feels like almost all of Haynes reporting this summer has been as pro-Lillard/Goodwin as you can get. Its almost as if Goodwin penned the pieces himself.
Edit: it feels like almost all of Haynes reporting this summer has been as pro-Lillard/Goodwin as you can get. Its almost as if Goodwin penned the pieces himself.
Who is though? We keep kicking the can on this thing because the "Jays are young". At some point we need to go all in.
I'm not necessarily advocate acting for a nutty trade here (based on what I am hearing as the ask it's likely not gonna work) but at some point the time will have come were we need to go all in on a 4-5 year window.
Yes, clearly. But the premise was going “all in” on someone and not what we think the ultimate price tag for Jrue ends up being. I expect Portland to get 2 draft picks for him along with filler but that’s just a guess.