General Offseason Thread.

Tony C

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Gordon, KCP, and MPJ aren't stars, but they're a lot better than meh, too -- definitely not just riding coattails. Those are solid, above average players with complementary games.

Cellar-Door said:
I'm sure they kicked the tires, but the likely holdup is $. Lots of teams want them at the minimum, but those teams couldn't find a way to trade for them at $6M and 10.5M. Have to salary match, and SAS can't take on a 2-1 of minimum guys (who they would then cut) because of the full roster. So... yeah if MIL had a TPE maybe they trade a 2nd (maybe not) but otherwise tough fit. I do wonder if the timing is because SAS thought BOS might take Cam Payne into the Williams TPE, then they traded for a PG, removing one of the last teams who might throw them a 2nd.
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I guess. It just seems to me that sometimes teams at the bottom give up assets way too easily and forget that it's good to have some vets around to guide the kids. I know Pops is a great leader, but I would worry a bit about a Houston situation where there is little to no locker room leadership for the young kids. Another example is SA more or less giving away Derrick White a few years ago. He's now re-signable for $88 million/4 years. Seems to me he'd be a good companion to the Spurs' young talent. They don't all have to be the same age.

Bullock and Payne aren't at the same level as White, obviously. And I'm not sure who the #14, #15 players are on their roster, so maybe I'm missing some hidden gem. But if I'm the Spurs I keep around decent vets who won't demand a ton of minutes to accompany Wembayana et al.. Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell are good players, but at 23 I'd assume are hardly ready to be full on leaders.
 
Jimbodandy

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I'd love to see what metrics one uses to say that both Gordon and KCP were above-average players for the first 600 games of their careers. Forgetting DARKO, Gordon had a negative net rating for every year except one and negative BPM...then he met Jokic. KCP, basically the same story, except he did have a couple of positive net years with the Lakers and also is still a negative BPM player, even with Jokic.

Their reps far exceed actual contributions, but they look awesome spread around Jokic.
 
Euclis20

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I'm bullish on MPJ (other than his injuries), I think he's gonna end up being a carbon copy of Rashard Lewis (who was a borderline all-star for much of his prime). Of course it's impossible to truly look past his injuries, but for now, he's on the court.

Denver's starting five has the edge for now if for no other reason than Jokic and experience, but I'm curious to see how Boston's starters will gel, and exactly who will play alongside Holiday/Brown/Tatum/KP.
 
slamminsammya

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Jimbodandy said:
I'd love to see what metrics one uses to say that both Gordon and KCP were above-average players for the first 600 games of their careers. Forgetting DARKO, Gordon had a negative net rating for every year except one and negative BPM...then he met Jokic. KCP, basically the same story, except he did have a couple of positive net years with the Lakers and also is still a negative BPM player, even with Jokic.

Their reps far exceed actual contributions, but they look awesome spread around Jokic.
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they're elite role players, but any role player won't look great when tasked with being the best player like Gordon was.
 
BigSoxFan

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128 said:
View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1708949753378087000
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Probably has ceiling of 3rd best player on a championship team but a good player and fit around Wemby. Don’t think Wemby’s all-star calibre sidekick is on the roster yet but Spurs have a lot of upcoming draft capital and I like where this team is headed. Guys like Keldon, Vassell, Sochan all are pretty good and young. This team gets really interesting once they find a high upside guard creator.
 
InstaFace

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I'm always surprised by how late the NBA season starts. I always think "yeah, October, they start in October" and now I see that the Celtics' opening game is Oct 25th.

Turns out, excluding strike/pandemic years, that since the league shifted back a few weeks after the 1980-1981 season (start 10/10, end 3/29), the Celtics' opening game has been between Oct 25th and Nov 6th every year, and mostly between Oct 28th and Nov 3rd, all the way up until 2017:

Cs regular season, games 1 & 82:
2017-18: Oct 17th - Apr 11th
2018-19: Oct 16th - Apr 9th
2019-20: Oct 23rd - (bubble)
2021-22: Oct 20th - Apr 10th
2022-23: Oct 18th - Apr 9th
2023-24: Oct 25th - Apr 14th

So we've basically rolled back a week, after a ~5 season experiment of going a week earlier, which followed a 35-year run of starting the last few days of October.
 
Euclis20

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lovegtm said:
Luka is a very good player, but has been edging towards "overrated" territory for some time now.
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He doesn't play defense and has advanced past the first round of the playoffs once in five years. His supporting cast hasn't been the best in the world, but he's played alongside a couple of all-star level players with not much to show for it (I think it's pretty clear that, as of now, he does not elevate the players around him). What was excusable at age 20 in year 2 really isn't at age 24 and year 6, so if they have another disappointing season I'm curious if there actually is some backlash.

The Houston Harden comparisons remain very strong, although Harden did win 7 playoff series in 8 years with Houston.
 
PedroKsBambino

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Euclis20 said:
Hoops Hype came out with their player rankings today:

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-ranking-top-100-players-2023-24/?itm_source=parsely-api

Two surprises, one pleasant (Tatum at 4 ahead of Embiid at 5) and one baffling (Luka at 2 only behind Jokic is incredible).
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As resident low man on Embiid around here, I'd argue it's really impossible to put Embiid above Tatum, basically just because of games played and minutes...I did the comparison in one of the threads, but even if Embiid was Bill Russell when he played he's out there so much less he can't possibly make up the gap in time on court.

If one is saying "assuming equal health/PT" it's easy to argue for Embiid---but that simply isn't what either of their careers suggests we should assume.

Luka is such a tough guy to assess---his team has been pretty bad (as has his defense) and he is such a supernova offensively you can almost overlook it. He carried them to multiple playoff series wins---only Giannis has done that as single-handledly in recent years. And on the downside---he was a dog for parts of last year and you wonder a bit if the iso/no D combo is just too corrosive for a team concept.
 
Auger34

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PedroKsBambino said:
As resident low man on Embiid around here, I'd argue it's really impossible to put Embiid above Tatum, basically just because of games played and minutes...I did the comparison in one of the threads, but even if Embiid was Bill Russell when he played he's out there so much less he can't possibly make up the gap in time on court.

If one is saying "assuming equal health/PT" it's easy to argue for Embiid---but that simply isn't what either of their careers suggests we should assume.

Luka is such a tough guy to assess---his team has been pretty bad (as has his defense) and he is such a supernova offensively you can almost overlook it. He carried them to multiple playoff series wins---only Giannis has done that as single-handledly in recent years. And on the downside---he was a dog for parts of last year and you wonder a bit if the iso/no D combo is just too corrosive for a team concept.
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If you're low man, I am low man #2. With the amount of takes that fly around NBA Twitter and NBA media and the sheer amount of hours that there are to fill, I am really surprised that there haven't been a ton of "Is Embiid overrated?" conversations.

His playoff record is awful, he looks completely gassed by the end of almost every game and the amount of injuries he has every single year is crazy.

I'm definitely not a Tatum superfan but I would put him comfortably ahead of Embiid
 
Euclis20

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PedroKsBambino said:
As resident low man on Embiid around here, I'd argue it's really impossible to put Embiid above Tatum, basically just because of games played and minutes...I did the comparison in one of the threads, but even if Embiid was Bill Russell when he played he's out there so much less he can't possibly make up the gap in time on court.

If one is saying "assuming equal health/PT" it's easy to argue for Embiid---but that simply isn't what either of their careers suggests we should assume.

Luka is such a tough guy to assess---his team has been pretty bad (as has his defense) and he is such a supernova offensively you can almost overlook it. He carried them to multiple playoff series wins---only Giannis has done that as single-handledly in recent years. And on the downside---he was a dog for parts of last year and you wonder a bit if the iso/no D combo is just too corrosive for a team concept.
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I'm with you. I could even look past the durability argument somewhat, if he were playing 60ish regular season games and then showing up and showing out in the playoffs (i.e. the Jimmy Butler act), but he's absolutely never done that. I believe he's had one healthy postseason (2020 when the Sixers were swept by Boston in R1), and he's been consistently worse in the playoffs (over his 6 full seasons he averaged 27.8 ppg on a TS% of .613 in the regular season, compared with the playoffs where he drops to 24.0 and a TS% of .579, plus his all-NBA defense seems to drop off sharply in the spring). Most players' numbers should, in the aggregate, look worse in the playoffs just because the opponents are all good, but when a top 5 player is materially worse in the playoffs against first and second round opponents year after year, it should raise some major flags.

There's this perception that since he finally won his MVP (that he's been openly begging for) he's arrived and can continue to improve with this monkey off his back, but he'll be 30 in March. He's not young anymore and he's played with his fair share of all-star level teammates (Simmons and Harden demanded to leave Embiid just as much as they've demanded to leave Philly). He's been out of excuses.
 
InstaFace

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PedroKsBambino said:
As resident low man on Embiid around here, I'd argue it's really impossible to put Embiid above Tatum, basically just because of games played and minutes...I did the comparison in one of the threads, but even if Embiid was Bill Russell when he played he's out there so much less he can't possibly make up the gap in time on court.
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When we had a vote last spring, only 7% of the port cellar would trade Tatum for Embiid straight up. 82% would do so for Jokic, and 65% for Giannis (and 23% for Luka, oddly enough). Nobody else registered above 2%.

There are a lot of low men and women on Embiid around here.
 
Jimbodandy

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PedroKsBambino said:
As resident low man on Embiid around here, I'd argue it's really impossible to put Embiid above Tatum, basically just because of games played and minutes...I did the comparison in one of the threads, but even if Embiid was Bill Russell when he played he's out there so much less he can't possibly make up the gap in time on court.

If one is saying "assuming equal health/PT" it's easy to argue for Embiid---but that simply isn't what either of their careers suggests we should assume.

Luka is such a tough guy to assess---his team has been pretty bad (as has his defense) and he is such a supernova offensively you can almost overlook it. He carried them to multiple playoff series wins---only Giannis has done that as single-handledly in recent years. And on the downside---he was a dog for parts of last year and you wonder a bit if the iso/no D combo is just too corrosive for a team concept.
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Luka Doncic has 28 playoff games in five years in the league. Tatum had 20 last year, 24 the year prior. Say what you want about Embiid's early playoff exits (they're awful), but at least he drags his teams to the playoffs every year. Of course Doncic has had terrible teams around him, but when he's getting ranked #2 in the league in some places it's crazy talk. #2 guy on earth makes the NBA playoffs and wins enough games that they have to wash his uniform.
 
Euclis20

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https://x.com/esidery/status/1709344751139381401?s=20

James Harden is on the way to Sixers training camp with intentions of making a scene, per
@wojespn
: “James Harden wants a trade. He wants to make the 76ers uncomfortable. So uncomfortable, ultimately, they don’t think they’ll get the best out of him and make a trade.”
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This has been happening in slow motion for almost 2 months now so it doesn't feel shocking, but this is truly unbelievable. For the 2nd time in 3 years, and all-star level player is holding out from a team that has a punchers chance at a title (if Harden were to come back and play hard), even though one of their teammates is a superstar. Apart from the terrible and well-publicized personnel fuckups (Butler, Tatum, Bridges), this Sixers team has had a large number of truly embarrassing moments over the last half decade.

I'd like to think this is all karmic payback for The Process, but I wonder if there's actually a chance that a culture of perpetual losing still exists there today, despite basically everyone in the org outside of Embiid and ownership having turned over since the team started winning again.
 
The Raccoon

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Euclis20 said:
I'd like to think this is all karmic payback for The Process, but I wonder if there's actually a chance that a culture of perpetual losing still exists there today, despite basically everyone in the org outside of Embiid and ownership having turned over since the team started winning again.
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It may all be coincidence, but if you compare Embiid and Simmons on the 76ers side with JB and JT on the Celtics there is an easy way to build a narrative (and I know that I'm massively simplifying):
The Jays were drafted into competing teams that went to the ECF in both of their rookie seasons. They had to fight for respect, playing time, shots etc. against other young guys (Rozier, Smart, Semi etc.) as well as proven veterans (Al, MaMo, Kyrie, Hayward...).
JE and BS both didn't play their first season(s) and were handed the keys to a franchise without an immidiate expectation of "winning" and without any real incumbents that would make them have to "earn it".

Who knows what would have happened if for example Simmons would have gone to the Cs and JB to the 76ers...? What happens due to circumstances, what is individual character and was is simply due to luck (injuries etc.)?

Some habits are hard to break and while Brown increased his FG% in basically every season, Simmons never had more 3PA than the 11 he had in his 1st season.
And Tatum adds more weight every offseason than I do over christmas, while Embiid has barely ever finished a 3rd quarter in a playoff game without looking completely gassed.

But then again, the 76ers will always have this:
 
Auger34

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Jimbodandy said:
Luka Doncic has 28 playoff games in five years in the league. Tatum had 20 last year, 24 the year prior. Say what you want about Embiid's early playoff exits (they're awful), but at least he drags his teams to the playoffs every year. Of course Doncic has had terrible teams around him, but when he's getting ranked #2 in the league in some places it's crazy talk. #2 guy on earth makes the NBA playoffs and wins enough games that they have to wash his uniform.
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I can't believe I am sticking up for Luka (a player I can't stand to watch and that I also think is overrated) but Embiid's supporting casts have been much better than Luka's.
 
chrisfont9

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lovegtm said:
This doesn't sound like a guy who is not going to have knee problems for the rest of his career:

https://x.com/eric_nehm/status/1709635788399399243?s=46
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Ah yes, Celtics killer Khris. When is the last time he killed the Celtics?

I've listened to multiple pods and read every article comparing the status of the Bucks and Celts and I am totally comfortable with where we are. People are saying "Giannis will score 50 points while you guys lock down on Lillard." If Giannis scores 50 and Lillard is being held down, how the hell to they get to 100 points? We aren't losing 95-90 games this year.
 
Euclis20

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chrisfont9 said:
Ah yes, Celtics killer Khris. When is the last time he killed the Celtics?

I've listened to multiple pods and read every article comparing the status of the Bucks and Celts and I am totally comfortable with where we are. People are saying "Giannis will score 50 points while you guys lock down on Lillard." If Giannis scores 50 and Lillard is being held down, how the hell to they get to 100 points? We aren't losing 95-90 games this year.
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Beyond the scoring, the Bucks biggest problems the last couple of years (and likely this upcoming year) are Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum. Those guys have gone off against the Bucks because of poor wing defense. With Holiday gone and Middleton still hobbled, those issues will get worse before they get better.

Both Milwaukee and Boston have some potential major availability concerns (KP's health, Horford's age, Middleton's health). It's odd that every single story comparing the two has to bring up Boston's potential depth issues for their bigs (even though those two are, for the moment, healthy and playing) while Milwaukee's Middleton problem (which was a major reason why they lost in the playoffs the last two years and is clearly still a problem right now) is barely mentioned by anyone in the media.
 
chrisfont9

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Euclis20 said:
Beyond the scoring, the Bucks biggest problems the last couple of years (and likely this upcoming year) are Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum. Those guys have gone off against the Bucks because of poor wing defense. With Holiday gone and Middleton still hobbled, those issues will get worse before they get better.

Both Milwaukee and Boston have some potential major availability concerns (KP's health, Horford's age, Middleton's health). It's odd that every single story comparing the two has to bring up Boston's potential depth issues for their bigs (even though those two are, for the moment, healthy and playing) while Milwaukee's Middleton problem (which was a major reason why they lost in the playoffs the last two years and is clearly still a problem right now) is barely mentioned by anyone in the media.
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Right? You know who is actually "injury prone"? The guy who has been hurt for two years with the same injury that won't heal. Porzingis' one major injury was an ACL tear, which heals. Al's condition may be permanent but it's manageable at least.
 
lovegtm

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tbb345 said:
My head hurts reading that exchange. Is Griffin trying to speak in riddles?
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Pretty clearly the situation isn't great and he's not supposed to say.

Reminds me a lot of how the Celtics talked about Kemba and Rob....
 
TripleOT

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I hope the Blazers don’t consider Rob Williams a short term rental. I don’t want to see him defending the basket on a contender in this year’s playoffs, especially as a Laker or a Warrior.
 
Tony C

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Lots of juicy Morey-Harden negotiation tidbits here, for those so inclined:
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nba/why-james-harden-and-daryl-morey-were-always-destined-to-implode?source=thebounce_newsletter&campaign=7846199

Amid the narrative, this was news to me:
First, in late April, the Rockets hired Ime Udoka as their next head coach. Udoka was an assistant with the Nets when Harden was in Brooklyn. According to people familiar with Udoka's thinking, he was not a fan of Harden's then, and so his hiring removed Houston from the board.
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If true, more power to Ime on that one. The idea of signing Harden always seemed like a terrible add to a team of immature talents (not sure Brooks is a great idea there, either, but that's a different story).
 
CoffeeNerdness

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InstaFace said:
I'm always surprised by how late the NBA season starts. I always think "yeah, October, they start in October" and now I see that the Celtics' opening game is Oct 25th.

Turns out, excluding strike/pandemic years, that since the league shifted back a few weeks after the 1980-1981 season (start 10/10, end 3/29), the Celtics' opening game has been between Oct 25th and Nov 6th every year, and mostly between Oct 28th and Nov 3rd, all the way up until 2017:

Cs regular season, games 1 & 82:
2017-18: Oct 17th - Apr 11th
2018-19: Oct 16th - Apr 9th
2019-20: Oct 23rd - (bubble)
2021-22: Oct 20th - Apr 10th
2022-23: Oct 18th - Apr 9th
2023-24: Oct 25th - Apr 14th

So we've basically rolled back a week, after a ~5 season experiment of going a week earlier, which followed a 35-year run of starting the last few days of October.
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I'll always remember the Antoine (31 pts) led C's topping Jordan and the Bulls on opening night Halloween 1997.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/199710310BOS.html
 
cheech13

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Tony C said:
Lots of juicy Morey-Harden negotiation tidbits here, for those so inclined:
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nba/why-james-harden-and-daryl-morey-were-always-destined-to-implode?source=thebounce_newsletter&campaign=7846199

Amid the narrative, this was news to me:


If true, more power to Ime on that one. The idea of signing Harden always seemed like a terrible add to a team of immature talents (not sure Brooks is a great idea there, either, but that's a different story).
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Stephen A Smith reported that when Harden told Ime he wanted to come back to Houston to win another scoring title Ime went to management and had them rescind their max offer.
 
Euclis20

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First preseason game today, in Abu Dhabi. Mavs vs Twolves, no Anthony Edwards and Luka scored 14 points in Q1...and Dallas is down by 18. Non-Luka Mavs are shooting 2-14 from the field.
 
HomeRunBaker

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So Harden reported to camp and playing the good guy? Countdown to Clipper trade being announced in 5 days...4...3...2...and one!
 
lovegtm

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HomeRunBaker said:
So Harden reported to camp and playing the good guy? Countdown to Clipper trade being announced in 5 days...4...3...2...and one!
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Yeah, Amick's article today said that was his reason for behaving nicely: the Clippers have re-engaged seriously now.
 
Auger34

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lovegtm said:
Yeah, Amick's article today said that was his reason for behaving nicely: the Clippers have re-engaged seriously now.
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To give more color to this...according to Amick it sounds like a deal is relatively close but the negotiating is still over Terrance Mann (I believe the Clips have offered 2 unprotected picks and salary filler to date)
 
The Social Chair

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Harden, Westbrook, and Leonard is a lot of mercurial personalities. 1999 Houston Rockets vibes. God bless Paul George.
 
lovegtm

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tbb345 said:
To give more color to this...according to Amick it sounds like a deal is relatively close but the negotiating is still over Terrance Mann (I believe the Clips have offered 2 unprotected picks and salary filler to date)
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Interesting that they probably could have had Jrue at that price, and he is probably a better fit there than Harden. Maybe he indicated he might not extend, or that extending would be contingent on Kawhi's health?
 
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