General Offseason Thread.

[Devizier]

Interesting to see how the Clippers-Sixers work out a deal, they have a ton of restrictions to work around.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Harden, Westbrook, and Leonard is a lot of mercurial personalities. 1999 Houston Rockets vibes. God bless Paul George.

PG is no drama slouch either.

This is why the NBA is awesome. The 1% outcome of that team with Harden is unbelievably high, but all of those weirdos in one room seems inevitably dysfunctional. It's fascinating

 

[bosockboy]

Harden or not, they have no chance of getting out of the West.

 

[JM3]

Harden or not, they have no chance of getting out of the West.

The stars would have to align (literally & figuratively), but if they roll out a healthy team of Kawhi/PG/Harden with Zubac/Mann (if he stays), as well as Batum/Covington/Plumlee/Powell/RW/KMJ, they are definitely very live.

 

[Euclis20]

PG is no drama slouch either.

This is why the NBA is awesome. The 1% outcome of that team with Harden is unbelievably high, but all of those weirdos in one room seems inevitably dysfunctional. It's fascinating

I might have missed something, what's the deal with PG? Off the court stuff aside, his problem is still availability. Comparing him to the injury prone guys that have been celtics over the last couple of years (KP, Robert Williams, Brogdon), he's played fewer games over the last 4 seasons than all of them.

I thought Harden's on-court issue in Philly was that he was tired of just being a distributor, and one of the big reasons that Houston passed was because he wanted to go back to being a big-time scorer. In that magical circumstance that the Clippers big 3 is all healthy and on the court, exactly what role does he think he'll be filling?

 

[Smokey Joe]

In that magical circumstance that the Clippers big 3 is all healthy and on the court, exactly what role does he think he'll be filling?

Disruptor of team chemistry and strip club patron?

 

[benhogan]

this would make my stomach sink but who says NO to

TimeLord + Brogdon for
Lowry + Jaquez + long-dated pick swap or protected 1st

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Harden or not, they have no chance of getting out of the West.

The West is so freakin loaded with quality teams. Everyone aside from the Blazers, Spurs and Rockets are legit playoff teams in any normal season.

 

[DavidTai]

this would make my stomach sink but who says NO to

TimeLord + Brogdon for
Lowry + Jaquez + long-dated pick swap or protected 1st

Portland, mostly because I think they can get more for one of them, let alone both.

 

[timelysarcasm]

this would make my stomach sink but who says NO to

TimeLord + Brogdon for
Lowry + Jaquez + long-dated pick swap or protected 1st

Portland. I think they can do better than a pu pu platter from Miami, particularly if they decide to wait and showcase both Brogdon and Timelord being healthy.

 

[lexrageorge]

Portland has no use for Lowry, not even as a future trade chit.

 

[cheech13]

The West is so freakin loaded with quality teams. Everyone aside from the Blazers, Spurs and Rockets are legit playoff teams in any normal season.

I actually think any of those three bottom feeder teams can make the play-in this year if things break right.

 

[benhogan]

Portland. I think they can do better than a pu pu platter from Miami, particularly if they decide to wait and showcase both Brogdon and Timelord being healthy.

That's not a pu pu platter. It's #18 this year (which will be better that GSW'24) + a future first from a team that could be in a steep decline post-Jimmy + expiring money. It's much better draft capital than they got from Boston & not far from the Dame deal.

Rumors are that Brogdon's market is 2 seconds + salary. Cronin can hold his breath every time Rob steps on the floor this year as they battle for 30 wins.

 

[Auger34]

this would make my stomach sink but who says NO to

TimeLord + Brogdon for
Lowry + Jaquez + long-dated pick swap or protected 1st

Some of this is conjecture but after reading the Chris Haynes piece on Dame, I dont think Cronin deals anything to Miami unless they pay through the nose.

 

[benhogan]

Some of this is conjecture but after reading the Chris Haynes piece on Dame, I dont think Cronin deals anything to Miami unless they pay through the nose.

Can you post that article?

That would make me so happy, since Spo would get the most out of Malcolm or Rob

 

[radsoxfan]

That's not a pu pu platter. It's #18 this year (which will be better that GSW'24) + a future first from a team that could be in a steep decline post-Jimmy + expiring money. It's much better draft capital than they got from Boston & not far from the Dame deal.

Rumors are that Brogdon's market is 2 seconds + salary. Cronin can hold his breath every time Rob steps on the floor this year as they battle for 30 wins.

I love Jaquez but no way he is close to as valuable as Brogdon and Rob, even with the injury issues. He was literally just taken outside of the lottery, he may not even be an actual rotation player.

A protected Miami future 1st has very little value and Lowry has no value.

Portland would be insane to make that trade.

 

[cheech13]

this would make my stomach sink but who says NO to

TimeLord + Brogdon for
Lowry + Jaquez + long-dated pick swap or protected 1st

As a Blazers fan I’d be apoplectic if they made this deal.

 

[benhogan]

The West is so freakin loaded with quality teams. Everyone aside from the Blazers, Spurs and Rockets are legit playoff teams in any normal season.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/

Win totals is usually in your wheel house.

What are you liking early (does pre-season skew your opinion at all)?

As a Blazers fan I’d be apoplectic if they made this deal.

Are you expecting PDX to keep them? You'd know better than me

what are your trade expectations for Brogdon?

for TimeLord?

 

[radsoxfan]

Are you expecting PDX to keep them? You'd know better than me

what are your trade expectations for Brogdon?

for TimeLord?

I'm as weary as the next guy re: Timelord's knee, but he still has a lot more current value than Jaime Jaquez.

 

[Auger34]

Can you post that article?

That would make me so happy, since Spo would get the most out of Malcolm or Rob

View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10091305-inside-the-messy-divorce-between-damian-lillard-and-portland-trail-blazers


Read at your own risk. I found the whole thing kind of gross in how one sided it was. I didn’t think much of Haynes before this article but after I think he’s aboit the worst basketball “journalist” around. He makes Shams and Woj look like Woodward & Bernstein

 

[Euclis20]

I'm as weary as the next guy re: Timelord's knee, but he still has a lot more current value than Jaime Jaquez.

Yeah a 22 year old non-lottery pick who had a good summer league and is yet to play an NBA game has no value beyond palatable salary filler, especially to a rebuilding team. It would be beyond shocking if a trade like that happened.

 

[benhogan]

Yeah a 22 year old non-lottery pick who had a good summer league and is yet to play an NBA game has no value beyond palatable salary filler, especially to a rebuilding team. It would be beyond shocking if a trade like that happened.

He's worth whatever he got drafted this year which is #18, probably > GSW'24

I'd like to hear a counter on what they think Rob + Malcolm will yield.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'd like to hear a counter on what they think Rob + Malcolm will yield.

From media day, Brad said PDX was super high on TL. My guess is that they're going to play him and see what he fetches at the trade deadline. They're not trading him for flotsam right now.

OTOH, I have to think that MIA would see Lowry as a better fit for them (particularly on defense) than Brogdon and I can't see them trading Jaquez for what would basically be a back-up center, particularly given their lack of depth? From all reports, MIA is pretty high on Jaquez.

 

[benhogan]

From media day, Brad said PDX was super high on TL. My guess is that they're going to play him and see what he fetches at the trade deadline. They're not trading him for flotsam right now.

OTOH, I have to think that MIA would see Lowry as a better fit for them (particularly on defense) than Brogdon and I can't see them trading Jaquez for what would basically be a back-up center, particularly given their lack of depth? From all reports, MIA is pretty high on Jaquez.

Thank you.

I agree, PDX trading TimeLord at the trade deadline makes the most sense. Enjoy the eggshells Portland fans.

Whatever CJM got out of Brogdon last season I'd expect Spo to get a lot more out of him.
Brogdon would be a huge upgrade over Max Strus.

 

[timelysarcasm]

I love Jaquez but no way he is close to as valuable as Brogdon and Rob, even with the injury issues. He was literally just taken outside of the lottery, he may not even be an actual rotation player.

A protected Miami future 1st has very little value and Lowry has no value.

Portland would be insane to make that trade.

Precisely this. We follow UCLA and really enjoyed watching Jaquez, but he's an older project and an unknown. Lowry is nothing but a washed salary slot on a rebuilding team, protected lottery picks are meh. Timelord and Brogdon are proven NBA talents who are dinged because of injuries, but their value is still far, far higher than that package in my opinion. PDX has done incredibly well with the Dame trade accelerated rebuild, I doubt Cronin will get jumpy now. They'll get more value from both Brogdon/Timelord if they wait it out.

edited to add: And anyway, I think Miami is the perfect place for Jaquez - when they drafted him I was like yeah, they seem to extract the best out of players with some top tier sub skillsets.

 

[JM3]

He's worth whatever he got drafted this year which is #18, probably > GSW'24

Only if the Blazers would have drafted him if they owned the 18th pick.

 

[cheech13]

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/

Win totals is usually in your wheel house.

What are you liking early (does pre-season skew your opinion at all)?


Are you expecting PDX to keep them? You'd know better than me

what are your trade expectations for Brogdon?

for TimeLord?

The roster already has four rookies and a second year player, and they acquired three extra firsts in the last week. My sense is that they’ll roll out with Time Lord and Brogdon on the roster, see how it plays out and maybe move them at the deadline if there’s a good offer. I don’t think they’re in any rush to shake things up anymore.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I actually think any of those three bottom feeder teams can make the play-in this year if things break right.

I'd eat logs of shit if any of these three sniffed the play-in game but that's just me. They are far and away the three least talented teams and it isn't like they can sneak in anywhere with so many quality teams in front of them. If this weren't the case then sure anything can happen but you'd need like multiple team plane crashes for them to pass so many of these teams.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/

Win totals is usually in your wheel house.

What are you liking early (does pre-season skew your opinion at all)?

With in-season Win Total wagering available I'm in no rush to play much prior to opening night. This is similar to the large majority of my regular season bet percentage being in-play wagers. I have the 3 WC bottom feeders numbers lower than where they are and Dallas is another WC team that may be overvalued without having an identify and relying on several unproven NBA players. My favorite WC over right now is Minnesota....they could be this years Sacramento.

I'd say for 80% of the teams the preseason means nothing and doesn't change a thing but for 1 out of 5 it does and that is a significant number. So yes, it matters in picking up information so it is valuable but only for a handful of teams....if that makes any sense.

 

[benhogan]

With in-season Win Total wagering available I'm in no rush to play much prior to opening night. This is similar to the large majority of my regular season bet percentage being in-play wagers. I have the 3 WC bottom feeders numbers lower than where they are and Dallas is another WC team that may be overvalued without having an identify and relying on several unproven NBA players. My favorite WC over right now is Minnesota....they could be this years Sacramento.

I'd say for 80% of the teams the preseason means nothing and doesn't change a thing but for 1 out of 5 it does and that is a significant number. So yes, it matters in picking up information so it is valuable but only for a handful of teams....if that makes any sense.

Thanks, in season, makes a ton of sense

The Silver Dollar has been quiet

View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10091305-inside-the-messy-divorce-between-damian-lillard-and-portland-trail-blazers


Read at your own risk. I found the whole thing kind of gross in how one sided it was. I didn’t think much of Haynes before this article but after I think he’s aboit the worst basketball “journalist” around. He makes Shams and Woj look like Woodward & Bernstein

Thanks for sending. I'd guess PDX won't be sending any goodies to Miami...Nice guy Brad wins again.

 

[nighthob]

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/

Win totals is usually in your wheel house.

What are you liking early (does pre-season skew your opinion at all)?

I’m hammering the under on the Lakers, Clips, Warriors, and Mavs.

 

[benhogan]

I’m hammering the under on the Lakers, Clips, Warriors, and Mavs.

After last season's home playoff results, we may be reaching mid-70s level of veteran interest in the regular season.

Signing Max Strus/Tristan Thompson makes me want to short the heck out of the CAVs 50.5 wins
Also want to buy the Magic's 36.5 as Franz/Banchero continue to grow (that's a team that could use Brogdon)

 

[NomarsFool]

Rumors are that Brogdon's market is 2 seconds + salary.

Seems surprising to me. The Celtics got Fournier for two 2nd round picks, and Mike Muscala for the same. The injury thing is a question mark, of course, but Brogdon seems more valuable than those two.

 

[lexrageorge]

Seems surprising to me. The Celtics got Fournier for two 2nd round picks, and Mike Muscala for the same. The injury thing is a question mark, of course, but Brogdon seems more valuable than those two.

Agree, given Brogdon went for a 1st a year ago and by all accounts has fully recovered from his arm injury.

It may be that the timing now at this point in the season is not ideal for his trade value. In which case there is zero harm in waiting to get closer to the trade deadline.

 

[benhogan]

Seems surprising to me. The Celtics got Fournier for two 2nd round picks, and Mike Muscala for the same. The injury thing is a question mark, of course, but Brogdon seems more valuable than those two.

Agree, I like Brogdon a lot more than those two and hope he doesn't end up on Philly, NYK or Miami. That's all I really care about.

The Celtics accepted the 30th pick + salary from the Clippers for Brogdon before LAC canceled the trade. As we saw in the recent draft #30 is worth ~ 2 Seconds. BUT who knows??? we can't even agree around here that the player selected 18th a few months ago is a good way to mark-to-market

Our resident PDX fan, @cheech13 has a feeling MB/TL are sticking around to give a veteran presence to all their youngsters, which is fair. Sign me up for that if they stay off contenders

 

[DavidTai]

we can't even agree around here that the player selected 18th a few months ago is a good way to mark-to-market

The proposal had less to do with the player picked (which I'm not even sure Portland would value the way Miami does) and considerably more to do with that Lowry is a negative asset on that contract that completely negates the value of said pick. You'd have to add another future first just to get Brogdon, let alone adding Time Lord in that package.

 

[Devizier]

Agree, I like Brogdon a lot more than those two and hope he doesn't end up on Philly, NYK or Miami. That's all I really care about.

If that’s the ask, the Knicks could easily meet it with Fournier plus. Not as easy for the other two given the salary.

 

[benhogan]

The proposal had less to do with the player picked (which I'm not even sure Portland would value the way Miami does) and considerably more to do with that Lowry is a negative asset on that contract that completely negates the value of said pick. You'd have to add another future first just to get Brogdon, let alone adding Time Lord in that package.

nobody on this site has PDX's 2023 big board on the draft, right?

Maybe PDX valued Jaquez at 15? I'm just using the mark-to-market value of where the player was taken & mocked pre-draft.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft

Also, Lowry is expiring and may have a tiny amount of value as a placeholder for a team like PDX, which is in full rebuild mode

There is little chance Brogdon is yielding 2 Firsts on his own, no matter who you attach, as we saw a few months ago with the accepted LAC deal

 

[lovegtm]

nobody on this site has PDX's 2023 big board on the draft, right?

Maybe PDX valued Jaquez at 15? I'm just using the mark-to-market value of where the player was taken & mocked pre-draft.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft

Also, Lowry is expiring and may have a tiny amount of value as a placeholder for a team like PDX, which is in full rebuild mode

There is little chance Brogdon is yielding 2 Firsts on his own, no matter who you attach, as we saw a few months ago with the accepted LAC deal

Jaquez is a particularly polarizing #18 because of his age. Most people thought Miami picked him because it wanted a guy more likely to be NBA ready.

He could just as easily be 30+ on Portland's board.

Regardless, picks ALWAYS lose value when they're driven off the lot. You can never mark them to market for trade purposes. Stop trying, and you'll feel a lot better.

 

[DavidTai]

Jacquez was all over the board but most had him pegged as an early second rounder, but also an ideal fit for Miami. Given that, I don't think assuming that Miami taking him in the first makes him "hypothetically someone Portland might value as a first rounder ".

And honestly I don't see Lowry being worth crap to the Blazers as an expiring contract- more likely he gets bought out than stay as an expiring contract, which means you might as well price him as someone you have to buy out and that means he's a negative asset because the acquiring team has to be prepared to buy him out, which means they had better add assets to make it worth Portland's time and money buying him out.

 

[the moops]

I think POR keeps Brogdon until the deadline, or at least a few months into the season. Someone will pony up a first for him if they suffer an injury in the back court or someone is way under-performing.

 

[benhogan]

Brad traded down 4 different times to get his "ideal fit". I'm sure Pat Riley is familiar with that strategy.

Again I have no idea what PDX's Draft Board was, but I imagine NBA GMs are comfortable valuing Jaquez as a 1st Round Pick

Jacquez was all over the board but most had him pegged as an early second rounder, but also an ideal fit for Miami. Given that, I don't think assuming that Miami taking him in the first makes him "hypothetically someone Portland might value as a first rounder

It's Jaquez.

After 10 minutes of research, I found Jaime was mocked all over the back half of the First round.

Not ONE site had him "pegged for the early 2nd round" (Google can be helpful).

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2023-nba-mock-draft/
https://www.nba.com/news/bleacher-report-final-2023-nba-mock-draft-and-full-two-round-predictions
https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/?year-mock=2023
https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2023-nba-mock-draft-brandon-miller-scoot-henderson-go-behind-victor-wembanyama-in-two-round-projection/
https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2023/6/19/23761689/nba-mock-draft-2023-first-round-latest-projection-perfect-picks
https://www.si.com/nba/draft/mock-drafts-and-big-boards/2023-nba-mock-draft-final-projections-on-draft-day
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2023-final-predictions-trade-rumors-prospects-rising-falling/
https://sports.yahoo.com/2023-nba-mock-draft-10-lottery-movement-latest-intel-on-no-2-predictions-and-analysis-on-all-58-picks-172337760.html
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/37873455/2023-nba-mock-draft-latest-predictions-all-58-picks
https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/article/nba-draft-2023-final-top-60-mock-draft-72967
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nba/2023-nba-mock-draft-3-0-who-snags-scoot-henderson-brandon-miller-or-thompson-twins
https://clutchpoints.com/2023-nba-mock-draft-5-0-draft-day-edition

 

[luckiestman]

Harden or not, they have no chance of getting out of the West.

they do if healthy

 

[JM3]

Teams who were looking for someone with limited upside who could potentially be part of an NBA rotation to round out their playoff team were the target audience for Jaquez.

Not the Blazers.

In terms of big boards...

BR 24
O'Conner 25
CBS 25
No Ceilings 28
Hoop Social 30
Sporting News 32
Clutch Points 34

Those were the ones I found on the 1st page of Google. I'm sure I'm missing some, but didn't intentionally eliminate any.

So I pretty strongly disagree with the value of Jaquez to the rebuilding Blazers being the 18th pick.

He's worth whatever he got drafted this year which is #18, probably > GSW'24

I'd like to hear a counter on what they think Rob + Malcolm will yield.

 

[Devizier]

Yeah, I don’t get why the Blazers go for Jaquez. Teams are going to have their evaluations for individual players and they won’t change based on draft position. It’s not like Toronto made Caboclo valuable by virtue of picking him 20th.

 

[benhogan]

Teams who were looking for someone with limited upside who could potentially be part of an NBA rotation to round out their playoff team were the target audience for Jaquez.

Not the Blazers.

In terms of big boards...

BR 24
O'Conner 25
CBS 25
No Ceilings 28
Hoop Social 30
Sporting News 32
Clutch Points 34

Those were the ones I found on the 1st page of Google. I'm sure I'm missing some, but didn't intentionally eliminate any.

So I pretty strongly disagree with the value of Jaquez to the rebuilding Blazers being the 18th pick.

Yea, I might agree with age being an issue for a rebuilder like PDX.
BUT they had the 22nd pick that they used on Kris Murray... he's 23yrs old

Please show the links because this is what I saw on Google Page 1:

Clutch Points has him at 25 going to the Boston Celtics
https://clutchpoints.com/2023-nba-mock-draft-5-0-draft-day-edition

Sporting News 26 to the Pacers
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2023-final-predictions-trade-rumors-prospects-rising-falling/g3fpbjmqdufevx0d0wooxocg

 

[JM3]

Yea, I might agree with age being an issue for a rebuilder like PDX.
BUT they had the 22nd pick that they used on Kris Murray... he's 23yrs old

Please show the links because this is what I saw on Google Page 1:

Clutch Points has him at 25 going to the Boston Celtics
https://clutchpoints.com/2023-nba-mock-draft-5-0-draft-day-edition

Sporting News 26 to the Pacers
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2023-final-predictions-trade-rumors-prospects-rising-falling/g3fpbjmqdufevx0d0wooxocg

Big Boards are different than Mock Drafts.

 

[JM3]

https://clutchpoints.com/brett-siegel-2023-nba-draft-big-board-5-0-top-100-rankings

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nba/news/nba-draft-2023-big-board-top-60-prospects-player-comparisons/gxk7tltfktsizu47gfnoavml

 

[benhogan]

Big Boards are different than Mock Drafts.

You win, I'm out. Should have listened to lovegtm

 

[nighthob]

Yea, I might agree with age being an issue for a rebuilder like PDX.
BUT they had the 22nd pick that they used on Kris Murray... he's 23yrs old

Murray also has athletic upside that Jaquez lacks. I can see why Miami valued Jaquez, he plays hard, is focused defensively, and will be ready to play from the get go. But I can also see why a rebuilding team wouldn’t value him all that much.