Plus, he was benched in 5 playoff games. It’s just not credible to say his role didn’t change, and that didn’t impact his value.
Yeah, and I never made those arguments. Simply pointing out the idea that a few dnps suddenly make grant some huge question mark around the league is a ridiculous assertion.
Uh... so since when is playing 20 minutes per game, nearly every game not in the rotation.... he's the 8th man. His minutes dropped because..... Robert Williams got healthy and is higher in the rotation than him. He sat some playoff games for matchup decisions, that's what happens to the bottom of the rotation guys.
Did anyone say that? I’ve only seen people saying that it lost him some money.
You quoted me in a post where I quoted the person literally saying gms have "no idea" what they are getting. I even put it in quotes in my post.
Exactly. Which is all people were saying. The idea he was always going to get that contract no matter what happened this year is so fucking absurd I can’t even believe it’s a legitimate talking point
If last year’s .388 3pt shooting from Portland is real, he’s a very different guy. Of course, to a prior point, it’s a lot more likely the league views the rest of 2022-2023 and his career as the more relevant sample and your point stands…it’s only 22 games for a team only sort of trying.
My apologies, I missed that. I think people have a good idea of what Grant is, he’s a known commodity but I do think this year cost him some money (maybe $1-$3M per year?)
The offseason isn't over but we're certainly not deeper. We've lost the guys who were 4th and 5th in minutes for us last year, along with another guy that likely would've been in our top 9 next year. The only meaningful add thus far has played 60+ games just once in the last six years. Our offensive ceiling is a bit higher, but our depth is solidly worse.
Seems doubtful he would have gotten a lot more than 4/53 if he played in a couple of more games the 2nd half of the season. Grant is going to turn 25 early this coming season, and it's highly unlikely he's going to improve very much from what he was the first half of this past season. Add in the fact that he was an RFA, 4/53 feels exactly where he should have ended up. Just not with the Celtics, who have other needs to address instead.
He's probably overpaid at that price, but if you pay him 7 million or something like that Portland likely matches it. You have to overpay to get someone to not match.
The issue is that 2nd apron teams are severely limited in team-building. They can't aggregate players; they have no MLE; and they can't sign guys on the buyout market. (Etc.)
This kind of leads to the stars and scrubs team construction, and could produce a worse product outside of the playoffs due to load management and reduced depth. There just aren't that many late 1st and 2nd round picks with major production. I would be very interested to hear what some of the middle class vet guys think of the CBA's effects so far.
I can see this changing the cost benefit analysis at the margin, where the choice is between a vet and a second round guy. But won't that just depress salaries for those rotation vets? You'd still rather have the best talent you can, but the price at which that happens will change. I don't think I'm explaining myself well.
It’s a math thing, teams fight over firsts, and there are extra imposed limitations on trading them. And Dallas still owes a first to New York, so in terms of firsts you would only get (at best) a far future first. Teams are willing to trade more seconds than firsts, so you can get more value that way. Especially given how flat the draft talent distribution is in the 25-40 range.
Thank you for digging up the #s most of us understood by watching CJM's player usage/abusage.
Agreed. With our salaries being so top-heavy we can't afford as many of those mid-tier guys. Losing depth is the price to pay for KP.
Losing depth for an injury-prone 7-3 guy doesn’t make much sense to me, especially one who really hasn’t been that much of a winner. Taking 1 step forward to potentially take 3 steps back.
“Being a winner” aint exactly easy when your healthy years are with the Knicks and Wizards.
Eh, the Spurs with Wemby are one of the few teams that can say they might have a better longterm outlook than the Celtics with Tatum/Brown, but a pick swap with Boston isn't a great place to be. The Celtics have been to the lottery just once in the last 16 years, and having those two wings [likely] locked up long term in their respective primes means those picks will be in the 20s for the rest of the decade.
I think people don't quite get how good KP got in his Washington time. I certainly hadn't realized it.
Agree that it's going to depress salaries for non-star vets. Also, the increases in tax rates for teams $10+M over tax line (see https://theathletic.com/4607105/2023/06/28/nba-cba-new-rules/) will depress the non-star contracts. I.e., for a team that's $20M over the tax, they start in 25-26 paying $5.25 in tax so GW's $12M contract is actually, what, $60M?
The new CBA has a second round pick exception.
I don't think this directly benefits the Celtics but it might make these picks more valuable as trade chips.
I mean, players and their agents do look at these things. Tax may not be their primary criterion when changing teams, but taxes are not nothing either. Especially when one considers investment income tax rates, which are not subject to the days the player spends out of state during the regular season.
Jae Crowder, Saddiq Bey, and Gary Payton III each got traded for 5 second round picks. Josh Richardson for four. Thomas Bryant for three. Bones Hyland for two.
Theres also the broader question of is that no-tax location where the player is going to want to spend his offseason. If he's living in CA (LA etc.) or NYC in the offseason, who cares that his home games arent subject to state income tax in the state they are played, all of his income is getting taxed at the 11% (NY) or 12% (CA) rates in any event. That is obviously a huge attraction to Miami.
That's not really the calculus here.
Those were even before the new CBA and increase in theoretical value for second round picks.
It's probably more complicated than that too, because you're likely increasing minutes for White and Brogdon, Horford is probably taking some of those minutes too.
Isn't the recent 1st round swap involving Dallas?
Who's assuming that?
Yup. And I think playoffs are why PROBOBS is poking around Lillard. Who cares if this team wins 48 or 55 games in the regular season. It doesn't matter. They're a good road team so it's about maximizing upside for a playoff run. I think Grant will bounce back a bit, and Smart is obviously a solid player or better himself, but I'm fine sacrificing some depth while we chase the Unicorn.
Yeah that's fair. There has been a lot of PP talk here and there since the Smart trade. Your phrasing of this is perfect. PP getting 9th man minutes shouldn't concern anyone. He got 11th most minutes last year and jumps two spots most likely since we're -1 ballhandlers.
Yes to all of this. Outside of Kyrie-level toxicity, you take the ceiling-raiser over the floor-raisers every day of the week. Guys like Marcus and Grant don't cause a team any regrets about going into a zone or aggressively doubling Tatum. KP absolutely does. This alone is a big deal. I don't want to spend another playoffs throwing their hands up in the air because their 4-8 guys suddenly went cold and we had no other way to score.
Generally speaking you always want to be the team receiving the best player in a deal which is what we did here. Top end talent is what wins in this league and we've failed now a couple times with Smart and Grant as contributors.
I don't think they've failed at all. Winning it all is hard. Only one team gets to do that every season. I don't think making the finals and conference finals is failing.
