Super Nomario said:
His AAA numbers are inflated by a .340 BABIP. He hasn't been awful in AAA, but he hasn't been good either - certainly not good enough to hand him the job with no safety net.
Why does that need to start before Swihart is looking to take the job from him?
What do you do then if Vazquez or Butler or both aren't good?
1. When did a .340 BABIP become inflated? That is only a little higher than what many solid contact hitters have for career numbers, and what you would expect from a solid contact hitter in the mL who is acclimated to the level of pitching he's facing.
Vazquez has had a BABIP below .316 in three samples in his entire career. The first was .268 when he first played as a pro in 2008. The second was his first jump up to low A. The third was his first jump from high A to AA.
Also, his Steamer projection with a .290 BABIP is .248/.304/.354. I think a .658 OPS catcher who plays top 5 defense for the entire league is a pretty worthwhile starter for the 2015 Sox to be honest, so even if his BABIP does regress well below career norms he would still be the best option as the regular starter.
2. Because if he isn't starting before Swihart comes up you aren't ever really giving him much of a shot. If that is the case we'd be better off trading him now instead of jerking him around, watching him hit .125 over 50 ABs in three months of ML "service time" and sell him at a lower value than he's at right now. The Sox need to give him a full chance to adapt to ML pitching and see what he is as a player. Vazquez has posted wOBA numbers .382, .348, .357, and currently at .327 in AAA at 23. He has hit well enough in the minors to have some legitimate ML potential with the bat and the Sox need to assess it ASAP because Swihart is charging hard and the Sox might just have two of the best young catchers in all of baseball. I'd rather know that now than find it out after we stifle Vazquez, bump him out with Swihart, sell him off, and watch him become the next Yadi Molina elsewhere.
Not to mention that if Vazquez does hit he's almost certainly the better defensive catcher and suddenly #14 overall prospect/best catching prospect in baseball Blake Swihart looks like an expendable option as the centerpiece in a Giancarlo Stanton trade.
3. The probability that Vazquez isn't good defensively is pretty damn low, making him an upgrade over our current catchers who aren't good fielders and still can't hit. That is the same situation most ML clubs are faced with in fact. The only difference for the Red Sox would be that Vazquez is young enough to have potential for future growth. Plus, if they're both sucking by July it really wouldn't be surprising to move Swihart up and let him have his shot a touch earlier.
The goal here is to know by the end of 2015 just who the catcher of the future is for the Red Sox, Vaz, Swihart, or a combination thereof. That is achieved by giving the two of them the most level appropriate playing time we can over the rest of 2014 and into 2015.