Red Sox Deadline Discussion

[Super Nomario]

They're going to fill some of the holes with kids.  Betts, Bogaerts, Vazquez and Bradley will all get significant playing time and will cover C, CF, RF and either 3B or SS.  1B, 2B, DH are covered.  LF should be as well with Victorino coming back.  Either he slides over to protect him from injury or Betts does with him resuming duties in RF.  So the offense is looking for upgrades at either 3B or SS.  They could even be looking to fill the 3B/SS hole with a stop gap with eyes toward Marrero for 2016 or even late 2015, so that shouldn't be too expensive.  So I'm not seeing a need to spend big on the offense, and even if there was, I'm not seeing a lot of good bets.  Hanley Ramirez is going to be a free agent, but he'll cost more than this team should be willing to spend.  After that, there are no superstar bats to target without making a trade.

I'll be really unhappy if this is how they approach the offense the offseason. I'd prefer Betts / Bradley competing for one spot with a veteran OF brought in, and Vazquez as the backup to a veteran C. The above is a worse offense on paper than what they entered 2014 with, and while we can expect some positive regression / luck even if they do little or nothing, that still doesn't look like a contending lineup.
 

The primary reason a Lackey trade scenario gets discussed (at least I think it is) is that he's one of the few viable trade options the Sox have that might be worth something on the market. The rest of these names -- with the potential exception of a Uehara or Miller, and maybe Peavy -- aren't likely to bring back Jack Squat. They get dealt with the hope you get lucky on the return.

Yes, but the reason Lackey has more trade value than the other guys is that he is a terrific value for 2015 - something that would benefit the Red Sox if they hang on to him.
 

So, in this type of season, as you near the deadline, you look to see what the Sox have that actually might be interesting to another team ... and could bring something in return. You're really only thinking about 2015 here if you believe that one player -- Lackey, in this case -- is a lynchpin move that significantly lessens the Red Sox chances to rebound next season. I think we all can say, to varying degrees, that this isn't a one player away team.

Not one player away, certainly - but they'll be one more player away if they trade Lackey.

 

[Dogman]

Sure, if you don't think you can contend in 2015, you might as well trade Lackey (and Napoli, and a bunch of other players, probably).
 
What return are we talking about? The only names I've seen thrown about are two 20-year-old A-ball OF, who might be useful for the next 5-6 years or might never be useful at all.
 
I see a lot of holes on the offensive side of the ball they need to fill as well - having the payroll flexibility of a starter making as little as Lackey would definitely help.

 
You have seen names associated with a Lackey trade? Link please.
 
You are seriously undervaluing what Lackey could bring to a contender this season and how little he would cost for that team next season. There is no way Lackey is only worth two 20 year old A ball players.  Like, none. 

 

[Sprowl]

Absolutely see what you can get for Lackey.  A "solid mid-rotation starter making peanuts in 2015" is indeed a very useful piece for the Red Sox, but I'd think it would be even more useful for a team without our financial resources.  He's more valuable to someone else than he is to us, which makes him a perfect trade candidate.
 
Obviously, if that isn't reflected in the offers you get, you keep him.  Fine.  But if it is, I'm perfectly happy to gamble that we can buy the equivalent of what a 36-year-old would have given us next year without killing our ability to get other pieces we need.

 

I agree that any franchise feeling a financial pinch but wanting to contend should be all over Lackey for 2014 and 2015.

Lackey can be replaced by equally cheap starters if the Red Sox are willing to take the risk that 2 or more of de la Rosa, Webster, Ranaudo, Workman and Barnes will start in 2015. If the team is going with the youth all over the field - with Betts and Cecchini as corner outfielders - then they will be doing the same with the pitching staff.

Why is breaking the bank not an option?  The Sox have a ton of payroll flexibility.  Sign Lester and another free agent -- if Scherzer's too much, what about James Shields or Justin Masterson?  Or Brandon McCarthy?  Or Dan Haren?  Or...

I'd think that trading Lackey could be a preamble to bidding on Scherzer, who should be a Fenway monster for years. It's either sign Lester and another frontline pitcher, or sign neither.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'll be really unhappy if this is how they approach the offense the offseason. I'd prefer Betts / Bradley competing for one spot with a veteran OF brought in, and Vazquez as the backup to a veteran C. The above is a worse offense on paper than what they entered 2014 with, and while we can expect some positive regression / luck even if they do little or nothing, that still doesn't look like a contending lineup.

 




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Alex Speier‏@alexspeier

Farrell: 'We're turning the page in terms of investing in young players'
 
https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/486943522013319168

 

[MakMan44]

EDITNomario
 
Have you even looked at the FA list for next season? 
 
The absolute best C this offseason is Russell Martin or Kurt Suzuki. 
 
The best OFers left to right are Melky or Cruz, Colby Rasmus, and Markakis. 
 
It's an ugly list and you're going to be competing with other teams to sign these guys. I'm not interested in overpaying any of them, the lone exception being Martin if Vazquez really struggles the rest of the year. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
You have seen names associated with a Lackey trade? Link please.
 
You are seriously undervaluing what Lackey could bring to a contender this season and how little he would cost for that team next season. There is no way Lackey is only worth two 20 year old A ball players.  Like, none. 

 
I think he was referring to me thinking out loud about David Dahl and Jesse Winker.  Dahl is in the SAL and Winker just recently got promoted to AA but hasn't been there long enough to judge whether he's making the transition well or not.  He's off to a good start, but only has 19 games under his belt.
 

I'd think that trading Lackey could be a preamble to bidding on Scherzer, who should be a Fenway monster for years. It's either sign Lester and another frontline pitcher, or sign neither.

 
I'm curious why you think that.  I could see an either/or being the way they approach the off season, but intending to sign both seems out of line with their typical approach.

 

[Drek717]

I'll be really unhappy if this is how they approach the offense the offseason. I'd prefer Betts / Bradley competing for one spot with a veteran OF brought in, and Vazquez as the backup to a veteran C. The above is a worse offense on paper than what they entered 2014 with, and while we can expect some positive regression / luck even if they do little or nothing, that still doesn't look like a contending lineup.

Why would they have Vazquez backup a veteran when all the available veteran catchers will be no hit, defense first guys and Vazquez himself is likely a significant defensive upgrade over every single FA catcher to be already?
 
Betts and Bradley competing for one spot?  Totally there with you.  They need to have a real answer for LF, be that Nava/Gomes again with greater commitment to letting Nava get going to start the year, Allen Craig on change of scenery deal from St. Louis, Stanton in a blockbuster, whatever.  Vic is the RF and the loser of Betts/Bradley is the first candidate to take the role if Vic isn't healthy in 2015 again.
 
The only places to really shake up the offense for 2015 are LF and 3B.  The Sox have a lot of in-house 3B options already (Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Coyle, Bogaerts with Marrero at SS) and the FA market will have some worthwhile talent who due to age or down production in 2014 will likely settle for short term get right deals (Sandoval, Headley, Aramis Ramirez).  They could all pick worse places than where Adrian Beltre resurrected his career.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/486943522013319168

And that's fine and appropriate for 2014, where the Red Sox are not a competitive team. Color me an optimist, but I haven't written off the 2015 season yet.
 

EDITNomario
 
Have you even looked at the FA list for next season? 
 
The absolute best C this offseason is Russell Martin or Kurt Suzuki. 
 
The best OFers left to right are Melky or Cruz, Colby Rasmus, and Markakis. 
 
It's an ugly list and you're going to be competing with other teams to sign these guys. I'm not interested in overpaying any of them, the lone exception being Martin if Vazquez really struggles the rest of the year. 

There's the trade market, too, in addition to free agency. Do you think the Sox should abandon trying to improve the offense for next year?

 

[MakMan44]

 
There's the trade market, too, in addition to free agency. Do you think the Sox should abandon trying to improve the offense for next year?

No but when you're talking about payroll flexibility FA is the first thing I'm thinking of. 
 
It's a lot harder to talk about off season trade acquisitions at this point because it's impossible to suggest who's going to available. We like talk about Stanton but there's nothing to suggest he's actually going to be traded this winter.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

EDITNomario
 
Have you even looked at the FA list for next season? 
 
The absolute best C this offseason is Russell Martin or Kurt Suzuki. 
 
The best OFers left to right are Melky or Cruz, Colby Rasmus, and Markakis. 
 
It's an ugly list and you're going to be competing with other teams to sign these guys. I'm not interested in overpaying any of them, the lone exception being Martin if Vazquez really struggles the rest of the year. 

 
I believe Chris Iannetta is a FA and should be our main target.  Go with Vazquez & Iannetta.  Iannetta hits Ls well, sees a lot of pitches and could take advantage of the monster.  The guy walks a ton and puts up quality ABs.  
 
EDIT: Yeah, I should have looked that up first. Thought I knew. Apologies.

 

[MakMan44]

 
I believe Chris Iannetta is a FA and should be our main target.  Go with Vazquez & Iannetta.  Iannetta hits Ls well, sees a lot of pitches and could take advantage of the monster.  The guy walks a ton and puts up quality ABs.  

Nope, signed through 2015. Agreed, would have been a good target though. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

And that's fine and appropriate for 2014, where the Red Sox are not a competitive team. Color me an optimist, but I haven't written off the 2015 season yet.
 
There's the trade market, too, in addition to free agency. Do you think the Sox should abandon trying to improve the offense for next year?

 
Well, for one, getting Victorino back is an upgrade.  I could be convinced that Betts and Bradley competing for center field would be a good way to go, but I don't see the team going there.  They seem to be all in on Bradley and again, I don't see them putting Betts on the shuttle given how early they promoted him this year.  Maybe that means Betts does the Zobrist thing instead of taking an outfield corner spot full time.  He could bounce around between all three outfield positions, 2B, SS and 3B.
 
Who do you suggest they target for left field?  What are you willing to spend to get that hole filled?

 

[mfried]

 
Well, for one, getting Victorino back is an upgrade.  I could be convinced that Betts and Bradley competing for center field would be a good way to go, but I don't see the team going there.  They seem to be all in on Bradley and again, I don't see them putting Betts on the shuttle given how early they promoted him this year.  Maybe that means Betts does the Zobrist thing instead of taking an outfield corner spot full time.  He could bounce around between all three outfield positions, 2B, SS and 3B.
 
Who do you suggest they target for left field?  What are you willing to spend to get that hole filled?

Nava-Betts.

 

[Super Nomario]

You have seen names associated with a Lackey trade? Link please.

As Snodgrass'Muff suggested, I was talking about his Dahl and Winker suggestions. My point is: I have no interest in dealing Lackey for years-away lottery tickets. If we can get a knocking-on-the-door OF who might be a middle-of-the-order bat, yeah, I'd deal Lackey for him, but at that point it's a bit silly. There are probably 25-30 players on the 40-man roster I'd trade for a player like that.
 

Why would they have Vazquez backup a veteran when all the available veteran catchers will be no hit, defense first guys and Vazquez himself is likely a significant defensive upgrade over every single FA catcher to be already?

Ross is 37 and a FA, so they need to fill two C spots. Vazquez for one is fine, but two rookie C seems crazy to me. Given Vazquez' pedestrian year in AAA, I'd be more comfortable with him as the short side of a timeshare rather than the long one.
 

Well, for one, getting Victorino back is an upgrade.

In theory, but he'll be 34 and coming off a lost season.
 

I could be convinced that Betts and Bradley competing for center field would be a good way to go, but I don't see the team going there.  They seem to be all in on Bradley and again, I don't see them putting Betts on the shuttle given how early they promoted him this year.  Maybe that means Betts does the Zobrist thing instead of taking an outfield corner spot full time.  He could bounce around between all three outfield positions, 2B, SS and 3B.

Betts has played 6 major league games - it's entirely possible he solidifies a major league role by the end of the season, but he certainly hasn't done so yet. And I'd argue the same for Bradley - he's played a lot, but he's arguably been the worst offensive regular in the AL. And if you acquire a starting-caliber OF and send one of Bradley / Betts to AAA, he provides depth in the case of the other flopping, a Victorino injury, and maybe even an Ortiz / Napoli injury. This is the "deep depth" approach they took in 2013 that they seemed to forget this past offseason - they really had no backup plans for anything that went wrong in the OF (to be fair, EVERYTHING went wrong in OF, but they didn't have a backup plan even if just one or two things had gone wrong).
 

 Who do you suggest they target for left field?  What are you willing to spend to get that hole filled?

I don't have any specific suggestions, to be honest, but ideally we're talking about a classic 3/4 hitter-type. It seems likely there will be some uncertainty at the bottom of the lineup, so ideally we'd hedge with a stronger middle of the order. We're going to need a guy like this as Ortiz shifts into the twilight of his career.

 

[Sprowl]

I'm curious why you think that.  I could see an either/or being the way they approach the off season, but intending to sign both seems out of line with their typical approach.

 
I see the Red Sox getting under the luxury tax in a down year in order to spend big in the future, and Scherzer is the best asset on the market for the Red Sox. I don't know whether they consider the youth movement to be ready enough to spend big for 2015, but if they do, then a starting staff composed of Scherzer, Lester, Buchholz and 2 of DLR/Webster/Workman/Ranaudo/Barnes looks to me like a good deployment of resources, with Lackey and Doubront traded elsewhere.
 
If the front office expects another year of struggles from the younger players, then the calculus is quite different.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
I see the Red Sox getting under the luxury tax in a down year in order to spend big in the future, and Scherzer is the best asset on the market for the Red Sox. I don't know whether they consider the youth movement to be ready enough to spend big for 2015, but if they do, then a starting staff composed of Scherzer, Lester, Buchholz and 2 of DLR/Webster/Workman/Ranaudo/Barnes looks to me like a good deployment of resources, with Lackey and Doubront traded elsewhere.
 
If the front office expects another year of struggles from the younger players, then the calculus is quite different.

 
This could make sense if they don't plan to spend big on trying to lure Hanley Ramirez back to Boston (I think this would be a terrible idea).  50 million between him and Lester instead of 40 million for Lester and a guy in the Floyd, Masterson, Santana, Shields tier leaves them with 30 million or so to play with in filling out the rest of the roster.  And a rotation like you suggest here would make it easier for a less than elite run scoring team to have a decent run differential.
 
This feels like a pipe dream, but man would that be a fun thing to see happen.

 

[Sprowl]

This could make sense if they don't plan to spend big on trying to lure Hanley Ramirez back to Boston (I think this would be a terrible idea).  50 million between him and Lester instead of 40 million for Lester and a guy in the Floyd, Masterson, Santana, Shields tier leaves them with 30 million or so to play with in filling out the rest of the roster.  And a rotation like you suggest here would make it easier for a less than elite run scoring team to have a decent run differential.
 
This feels like a pipe dream, but man would that be a fun thing to see happen.

Along the lines of improving run differential without chasing increasingly scarce RH sluggers, I see the team's defense as another area of significant improvement. Although runs will be hard to come by, this is potentially a great defensive team:

C Vazquez
1B Napoli
2B Pedroia
SS Marrero
3B Bogaerts
LF Betts/Nava
CF Bradley/Betts
RF Victorino/Betts/Holt

 

[Dogman]

As Snodgrass'Muff suggested, I was talking about his Dahl and Winker suggestions. My point is: I have no interest in dealing Lackey for years-away lottery tickets. If we can get a knocking-on-the-door OF who might be a middle-of-the-order bat, yeah, I'd deal Lackey for him, but at that point it's a bit silly. There are probably 25-30 players on the 40-man roster I'd trade for a player like that.
 
 

 
I meant a link to actual names suggested by MLB sources and not someone from this board.  Otherwise, you are basing a conclusion on how a Sosher values a potential trade and that is plain ridiculous. 
 
We have no idea what Lackey is worth to a contender with his current lines and pitching at the minimum next season but I'm betting it's much more than the above.

 

[Drek717]

Ross is 37 and a FA, so they need to fill two C spots. Vazquez for one is fine, but two rookie C seems crazy to me. Given Vazquez' pedestrian year in AAA, I'd be more comfortable with him as the short side of a timeshare rather than the long one.

I'm all for pairing Vazquez with a veteran but he's a 23 year old catcher who has been pushed up level after level based on his D, sacrificing offensive development, and despite that is currently hitting .279/.336/.385 in AAA.  That is composed of monthly OPS totals as follows: .758, .547, .848, .749 (in only 21 June PAs).  He hasn't posted a massive platoon split this year or last (definitely hits LHP for more power, but he's put up good contact and OBP numbers against RHP) against advanced mL competition.
 
His AAA numbers so far this year are pretty comparable to what any of the Molina brothers did at about the same age at the same level.  All of them after a few seasons of regular ML ABs put it together offensively.  They're a good comp for Vazquez on multiple fronts.  I don't see why the club would intentionally take a defensive downgrade for a gamble on better offensive production from some veteran catcher playing 100 of the 162 games while Vaz sits given how important catcher is defensively.  It really doesn't make any sense when you consider that Vazquez needs to see ML ABs to adapt, not riding the pine, and that needs to start before Swihart is looking to take the job from him.
 
Personally, I'd be totally cool with the club rolling with Vazquez and Butler at the ML level and Swihart and Ross as a player coach in AAA.

 

[Hoplite]

Along the lines of improving run differential without chasing increasingly scarce RH sluggers, I see the team's defense as another area of significant improvement. Although runs will be hard to come by, this is potentially a great defensive team:

C Vazquez
1B Napoli
2B Pedroia
SS Marrero
3B Bogaerts
LF Betts/Nava
CF Bradley/Betts
RF Victorino/Betts/Holt

 
We do have a lot of players who have major league ready defense but whose offensive... development will likely be somewhat of an experiment. Might not be a bad idea to go pitching and defense for a year. Cherington was supposedly a big proponent of that when we did tried it in 2010.

 

[Super Nomario]

I'm all for pairing Vazquez with a veteran but he's a 23 year old catcher who has been pushed up level after level based on his D, sacrificing offensive development, and despite that is currently hitting .279/.336/.385 in AAA.  That is composed of monthly OPS totals as follows: .758, .547, .848, .749 (in only 21 June PAs).  He hasn't posted a massive platoon split this year or last (definitely hits LHP for more power, but he's put up good contact and OBP numbers against RHP) against advanced mL competition.

His AAA numbers are inflated by a .340 BABIP. He hasn't been awful in AAA, but he hasn't been good either - certainly not good enough to hand him the job with no safety net.
 

His AAA numbers so far this year are pretty comparable to what any of the Molina brothers did at about the same age at the same level.  All of them after a few seasons of regular ML ABs put it together offensively.  They're a good comp for Vazquez on multiple fronts.  I don't see why the club would intentionally take a defensive downgrade for a gamble on better offensive production from some veteran catcher playing 100 of the 162 games while Vaz sits given how important catcher is defensively.  It really doesn't make any sense when you consider that Vazquez needs to see ML ABs to adapt, not riding the pine, and that needs to start before Swihart is looking to take the job from him.

Why does that need to start before Swihart is looking to take the job from him?
 

 
Personally, I'd be totally cool with the club rolling with Vazquez and Butler at the ML level and Swihart and Ross as a player coach in AAA.

What do you do then if Vazquez or Butler or both aren't good?

 

[Sprowl]

His AAA numbers are inflated by a .340 BABIP. He hasn't been awful in AAA, but he hasn't been good either - certainly not good enough to hand him the job with no safety net.
 
Why does that need to start before Swihart is looking to take the job from him?
 
What do you do then if Vazquez or Butler or both aren't good?

Not to speak for Drek here, but if Vazquez can't handle major league pitching (and so should be relegated to backup catcher), an extended number of major league at-bats is the best way to judge that.

The best case scenario for the Red Sox is that both Swihart and Vazquez are young stars at the position, meaning that one of them will be traded for an enormous return, while the other will catch 125 games for the Red Sox, with Butler earning backup duties.

If neither Vazquez nor Butler are adequate, then we hope Swihart will start while Ross or another veteran backup takes backup duties. That other veteran doesn't need to be identified for the next 12 months at least.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

If Vazquez can manage a .650 OPS he'll have a long-term role on this team.  Really, with his defensive ability/upside, he just needs to be 50 OPS pts better than a guy like Drew Butera to be at least a back-up/ defensive sub on a good team.  We wouldn't need a veteran back-up.

 

[Drek717]

His AAA numbers are inflated by a .340 BABIP. He hasn't been awful in AAA, but he hasn't been good either - certainly not good enough to hand him the job with no safety net.
 
Why does that need to start before Swihart is looking to take the job from him?
 
What do you do then if Vazquez or Butler or both aren't good?

1. When did a .340 BABIP become inflated?  That is only a little higher than what many solid contact hitters have for career numbers, and what you would expect from a solid contact hitter in the mL who is acclimated to the level of pitching he's facing.
 
Vazquez has had a BABIP below .316 in three samples in his entire career.  The first was .268 when he first played as a pro in 2008.  The second was his first jump up to low A.  The third was his first jump from high A to AA.
 
Also, his Steamer projection with a .290 BABIP is .248/.304/.354.  I think a .658 OPS catcher who plays top 5 defense for the entire league is a pretty worthwhile starter for the 2015 Sox to be honest, so even if his BABIP does regress well below career norms he would still be the best option as the regular starter.
 
2. Because if he isn't starting before Swihart comes up you aren't ever really giving him much of a shot.  If that is the case we'd be better off trading him now instead of jerking him around, watching him hit .125 over 50 ABs in three months of ML "service time" and sell him at a lower value than he's at right now.  The Sox need to give him a full chance to adapt to ML pitching and see what he is as a player.  Vazquez has posted wOBA numbers .382, .348, .357, and currently at .327 in AAA at 23.  He has hit well enough in the minors to have some legitimate ML potential with the bat and the Sox need to assess it ASAP because Swihart is charging hard and the Sox might just have two of the best young catchers in all of baseball.  I'd rather know that now than find it out after we stifle Vazquez, bump him out with Swihart, sell him off, and watch him become the next Yadi Molina elsewhere.
 
Not to mention that if Vazquez does hit he's almost certainly the better defensive catcher and suddenly #14 overall prospect/best catching prospect in baseball Blake Swihart looks like an expendable option as the centerpiece in a Giancarlo Stanton trade.
 
3. The probability that Vazquez isn't good defensively is pretty damn low, making him an upgrade over our current catchers who aren't good fielders and still can't hit.  That is the same situation most ML clubs are faced with in fact.  The only difference for the Red Sox would be that Vazquez is young enough to have potential for future growth.  Plus, if they're both sucking by July it really wouldn't be surprising to move Swihart up and let him have his shot a touch earlier.
 
The goal here is to know by the end of 2015 just who the catcher of the future is for the Red Sox, Vaz, Swihart, or a combination thereof.  That is achieved by giving the two of them the most level appropriate playing time we can over the rest of 2014 and into 2015.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Holt is the likeliest trade bait, hopefully sooner rather than later.
 
I have a sense we're going to see him come back down to earth in an ugly way. His BABIP is an ungodly .380 and unsustainable. His trade value will probably never again be as high as it is today.
 
My biggest inner conflict concerns Betts and JBJ. Betts should be relatively untouchable, in a Bogaerts type of way, but I would watch 100 innings of JBJ's play in center field without a commercial break.
 
How do these guys compare to someone like, say, Brett Gardner - whose first 2 real years in the majors (age 25 - 26) saw hitting around .270, slugging at .380, and a lot of speed. I have a fantasy that JBJ learns how to hit (and why shouldn't he?) and that Betts becomes a Victorino in RF...but both those things probably take a couple of years. Compliment that with a slugging left fielder and there's the inception of a fucking impressive team featuring Bogaerts at 3rd, Marrero at SS, and Vazquez/Swihart behind the plate.

 

[Plympton91]

As Snodgrass'Muff suggested, I was talking about his Dahl and Winker suggestions. My point is: I have no interest in dealing Lackey for years-away lottery tickets. If we can get a knocking-on-the-door OF who might be a middle-of-the-order bat, yeah, I'd deal Lackey for him, but at that point it's a bit silly. There are probably 25-30 players on the 40-man roster I'd trade for a player like that.
 
Ross is 37 and a FA, so they need to fill two C spots. Vazquez for one is fine, but two rookie C seems crazy to me. Given Vazquez' pedestrian year in AAA, I'd be more comfortable with him as the short side of a timeshare rather than the long one.
 
In theory, but he'll be 34 and coming off a lost season.
 
Betts has played 6 major league games - it's entirely possible he solidifies a major league role by the end of the season, but he certainly hasn't done so yet. And I'd argue the same for Bradley - he's played a lot, but he's arguably been the worst offensive regular in the AL. And if you acquire a starting-caliber OF and send one of Bradley / Betts to AAA, he provides depth in the case of the other flopping, a Victorino injury, and maybe even an Ortiz / Napoli injury. This is the "deep depth" approach they took in 2013 that they seemed to forget this past offseason - they really had no backup plans for anything that went wrong in the OF (to be fair, EVERYTHING went wrong in OF, but they didn't have a backup plan even if just one or two things had gone wrong).
 
I don't have any specific suggestions, to be honest, but ideally we're talking about a classic 3/4 hitter-type. It seems likely there will be some uncertainty at the bottom of the lineup, so ideally we'd hedge with a stronger middle of the order. We're going to need a guy like this as Ortiz shifts into the twilight of his career.

Quoted to indicate complete agreement.

Especially if they parlay some of the coming fire sale into more prospects, they better damn well turn some of those prospects into impact bats. As much as I like Daniel Nava and Johnny Gomes, they have real value to contenders, and they should take what they get in those two trades and offer them to St. Louis for Craig, if the Cardinals are really offering him for a discount from face value. That would be step one. Step two would be making sure that 3B doesn't again turn into a cavalcade of suck. If that means signing Hanley Ramirez, so be it. They could also take a one-year flier on the Padres dude whose name is escaping me, hoping that getting out of the Grand Canyon would revive his offensive potential.

 

[Super Nomario]

1. When did a .340 BABIP become inflated?  That is only a little higher than what many solid contact hitters have for career numbers, and what you would expect from a solid contact hitter in the mL who is acclimated to the level of pitching he's facing.
 
Vazquez has had a BABIP below .316 in three samples in his entire career.  The first was .268 when he first played as a pro in 2008.  The second was his first jump up to low A.  The third was his first jump from high A to AA.
 
Also, his Steamer projection with a .290 BABIP is .248/.304/.354.  I think a .658 OPS catcher who plays top 5 defense for the entire league is a pretty worthwhile starter for the 2015 Sox to be honest, so even if his BABIP does regress well below career norms he would still be the best option as the regular starter.

Minor league BABIPs are inflated in general; I think this is why Steamer and projection systems generally normalize them to about league-average until a player demonstrates he's a rare exception who can consistently put up above-average ball-in-play numbers at the major league level.
 
As for the projection - maybe it would be OK (it's 30 points below currently AL average), but it doesn't allow a lot of wiggle room for him to fall short of that. That was one of the problems with JBJ this year; his projection was fringe acceptable, but they had no fallback option when he missed his projection.
 

2. Because if he isn't starting before Swihart comes up you aren't ever really giving him much of a shot.  If that is the case we'd be better off trading him now instead of jerking him around, watching him hit .125 over 50 ABs in three months of ML "service time" and sell him at a lower value than he's at right now.  The Sox need to give him a full chance to adapt to ML pitching and see what he is as a player.  Vazquez has posted wOBA numbers .382, .348, .357, and currently at .327 in AAA at 23.  He has hit well enough in the minors to have some legitimate ML potential with the bat and the Sox need to assess it ASAP because Swihart is charging hard and the Sox might just have two of the best young catchers in all of baseball.  I'd rather know that now than find it out after we stifle Vazquez, bump him out with Swihart, sell him off, and watch him become the next Yadi Molina elsewhere.
 
Not to mention that if Vazquez does hit he's almost certainly the better defensive catcher and suddenly #14 overall prospect/best catching prospect in baseball Blake Swihart looks like an expendable option as the centerpiece in a Giancarlo Stanton trade.

I'm not worried about that stuff, to be honest. If Swihart tears up AAA to the extent he forces the FO to promote him to the majors before the end of 2015, that's a good thing. Vazquez will get a look starting now. I imagine he will be on the major league roster in some capacity next year. If they sign a veteran catcher and Vazquez can't wrest AB away from him and gets passed by Swihart halfway through 2015, I'm not really concerned about "stifling" Vazquez. That's a good problem to have - a bad problem to have is not having a competent catcher for 2015, which is a real possibility if the catching tandem is Vazquez / Butler.
 

 3. The probability that Vazquez isn't good defensively is pretty damn low, making him an upgrade over our current catchers who aren't good fielders and still can't hit.  That is the same situation most ML clubs are faced with in fact.  The only difference for the Red Sox would be that Vazquez is young enough to have potential for future growth.  Plus, if they're both sucking by July it really wouldn't be surprising to move Swihart up and let him have his shot a touch earlier.
 
The goal here is to know by the end of 2015 just who the catcher of the future is for the Red Sox, Vaz, Swihart, or a combination thereof.  That is achieved by giving the two of them the most level appropriate playing time we can over the rest of 2014 and into 2015.

That's a goal - competing in 2015 is also a goal. Obviously we put different weights on these respective goals. There's a real chance we don't know who the "catcher of the future" is after 2015, either, but I don't see why we're in such a hurry to make that determination anyway.
 
I'm not sure why Butler is a major-league option at all - he's already 27 and is hitting .232 in Pawtucket. He's the catching equivalent of Hassan, a guy you can call up if someone goes on the 15-day DL but you hope you don't really have to play. A veteran option looks like a necessity to me.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Quoted to indicate complete agreement.

Especially if they parlay some of the coming fire sale into more prospects, they better damn well turn some of those prospects into impact bats. As much as I like Daniel Nava and Johnny Gomes, they have real value to contenders, and they should take what they get in those two trades and offer them to St. Louis for Craig, if the Cardinals are really offering him for a discount from face value. That would be step one. Step two would be making sure that 3B doesn't again turn into a cavalcade of suck. If that means signing Hanley Ramirez, so be it. They could also take a one-year flier on the Padres dude whose name is escaping me, hoping that getting out of the Grand Canyon would revive his offensive potential.

I believe you're referring to Yasmani Grandal. The same guy who was busted for PED's last year and has had a lot of injury issues on top of that.

 

[MakMan44]

I believe you're referring to Yasmani Grandal. The same guy who was busted for PED's last year and has had a lot of injury issues on top of that.

No, Chase Headley was who he was thinking of. 

 

[Hoplite]

 
Every other GM can read what his BABIP is as well and will make offers accordingly. In which case they likely aren't going to get much for him. And if they take what they can get and he turns out legit, well, you just pissed away a pretty valuable asset. 
 
No on a trade of Brock Holt. Ride out the season with him and start him as your super utility guy next season, provided he doesn't crash. Start Herrera in AAA next season and if Holt goes poof, you have an alternative. If he doesn't you have a solid UI to trade. 

 
Maikel Franco it is.

 

[seantoo]

 
 
The above is all fine in theory but if you think there not going to bring in any offensive help for this historically bad offense I think your greatly underestimating the pressure they will be under. Now if they put all the rookies in the lineup after the ASB and they look ready for next year maybe the plan becomes more reasonable but expecting Victorino to be a regular steady OF seems like folly at this point as it has been devestating this year.  
 
Nevermind the pressure that puts on all those young guys. Eventually the front office will have to spend money again even if they have to overpay for a Hanley. 

With several rookies allready on the team, and more still to come they will not all develop at the same rate (or even at all), even the ones that succeed or even flourish will likely not show any consistency until the end of a second full year. That's just the way it has been for most rookies since forever. This team is likely at least two years away from seriously contending barring a major trade or two. Ortiz will either be gone or if he somehow is not gone he'll likely not be very effective. The team would definitely need a few key offensive players and chances are the #3 and #4 hitters we are talking about will not come from the inside, even if I think Xander has a chance to become that eventually. So those type of hitters have to come via FA or a trade.

 

[Rasputin]

The club's offense depends on if the young guys start hitting and to what degree.  One slugging corner OF isn't going to fix the problems with this team if Bogaerts, Bradley, etc. continue to be black holes.
 

 
 
If Bogaerts, Bradley, etc. (who is that, Betts?) continue to be black holes, nothing is going to fix the problems with this team.
 
Also, I feel compelled to point out that we're nearing the point where saying Bradley is a black hole would be untrue.

 

[Otis Foster]

This seems to be the right place for this. Tulowitzki available?. 
 

 
 

• Tulowitzki met recently with top team officials, giving them what Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com terms a “subtle blessing” to deal him. The star shortstop indicated that, while he enjoys playing for the Rockies and hopes to continue to do so, he would be open to being moved to a contending ballclub. But that does not mean Tulowitzki is likely to be dealt; quite the contrary, in fact. One Rockies source told Heyman he saw “no chance” of a deal, with ownership concerned with losing fans by dealing the main gate attraction off of a losing team. Ultimately, says Heyman, it may take an outright trade request from Tulo to make a deal happen; if nothing else, Monfort would want him to bless any specific deal before pulling the trigger.

 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

[Rovin Romine]

Isn't hat a bit of an exaggeration? Even in JBJ's hot stretch, he's got a sub 700 OPS. A better average and fewer whiffs, but no power, few walks, and not stealing bases.

Since JBJ entered the league, he's been one of the worst offensive players in the league. Excellent defense and he's gotten a little better lately, but there's a long way to go.

 
If you look at his splits, it's pretty clear the book was circulating in May regarding how to get JBJ out.  JBJ has since adjusted and has improved his performance.  His current production (say the last month) isn't great by any means, but from a guy who just turned 24, it's a legitimately encouraging sign.  

 

[Harry Hooper]

This seems to be the right place for this. Tulowitzki available?. 
 
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 
 
Buster Olney discussed this yesterday on the radio. He basically said if the Rockies are making "The Franchise" available, one should be a very skeptical shopper.

 

[MakMan44]

It could be as simple as the fact that his value will literally never be any higher. The guy has a 5 win season so far, and we're not even at the all star break. Coupled with the fact that he told management that it's okay if they shop him and there's a lot of smoke that doesn't point to an injury problem. 

 

[Drek717]

 
 
If Bogaerts, Bradley, etc. (who is that, Betts?) continue to be black holes, nothing is going to fix the problems with this team.
 
Also, I feel compelled to point out that we're nearing the point where saying Bradley is a black hole would be untrue.

Betts, the catcher position that now includes Vazquez.  Shortstop which will likely be manned by a young guy going forward.
 
I'm also not so quick to consider Bradley as having totally turned the corner.  Lets see him make a few more steps forward and turn some of these solid ABs resulting in loud fly outs turning into legitimate extra base hits before getting too excited.
 
However, I think we're agreeing on the same core point here: the offense has a lot of offensively well below expectations positions, mostly staffed by young talent.  The ones who aren't  young talent have young talent that just replaced them or will replace them within the next 12 months.  The Sox need to give all this youth some time to prove itself before looking to fill holes that might not exist in 12 months.
 
To illustrate my point, here's a hypothetical for you: what if the FO loves Marrero and believes Bogaerts is not a SS?  That pushes Bogey to 3B, Marrero at SS at some point in 2015, and displaces Middlebrooks, Cecchini, and Coyle.  Ok, so what if Middlebrooks gets healthy, plays some LF and RF down the stretch, and suddenly starts hitting now with his new specs and a less physically demanding position to field?  What if he bounces back to the .280/.325/.500 kind of numbers he flashed when first called up?  I'd say we would have found our RH slugging corner OF, right?  He is at his lowest value right now but with multiple reasons to be optimistic about a rebound in his future.
 
There is a lot of organizational talent still waiting for a consistent sample of ABs to prove/disprove their viability at the ML level.  The Sox need to go through that process and assess what they have before selling devalued youngsters and buying high priced veterans with fewer years of control.

 

[bosockboy]

Very few aircraft carrier bats become available. You absolutely go after him.
[Tulowitzki]

 

[Rasputin]

Betts, the catcher position that now includes Vazquez.  Shortstop which will likely be manned by a young guy going forward.
 
I'm also not so quick to consider Bradley as having totally turned the corner.  Lets see him make a few more steps forward and turn some of these solid ABs resulting in loud fly outs turning into legitimate extra base hits before getting too excited.
 
However, I think we're agreeing on the same core point here: the offense has a lot of offensively well below expectations positions, mostly staffed by young talent.  The ones who aren't  young talent have young talent that just replaced them or will replace them within the next 12 months.  The Sox need to give all this youth some time to prove itself before looking to fill holes that might not exist in 12 months.
 
To illustrate my point, here's a hypothetical for you: what if the FO loves Marrero and believes Bogaerts is not a SS?  That pushes Bogey to 3B, Marrero at SS at some point in 2015, and displaces Middlebrooks, Cecchini, and Coyle.  Ok, so what if Middlebrooks gets healthy, plays some LF and RF down the stretch, and suddenly starts hitting now with his new specs and a less physically demanding position to field?  What if he bounces back to the .280/.325/.500 kind of numbers he flashed when first called up?  I'd say we would have found our RH slugging corner OF, right?  He is at his lowest value right now but with multiple reasons to be optimistic about a rebound in his future.
 
There is a lot of organizational talent still waiting for a consistent sample of ABs to prove/disprove their viability at the ML level.  The Sox need to go through that process and assess what they have before selling devalued youngsters and buying high priced veterans with fewer years of control.

If we had an outfield of Middlebrooks, Bradley, Betts, and an infield of Bogaerts, Marrero, Pedroia, Napoli, Vazquez by the end of next year, and if it were producing what we think these guys can produce, I would giggle myself shitless and get on the Travis Shaw bandwagon.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If we had an outfield of Middlebrooks, Bradley, Betts, and an infield of Bogaerts, Marrero, Pedroia, Napoli, Vazquez by the end of next year, and if it were producing what we think these guys can produce, I would giggle myself shitless and get on the Travis Shaw bandwagon.

 
Sam Travis would like for Travis Shaw to keep that seat warm for him.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

 
Sam Travis would like for Travis Shaw to keep that seat warm for him.

Until Devers is ready after he moves over from 3b.

 

[PAB1353]

 
 
Buster Olney discussed this yesterday on the radio. He basically said if the Rockies are making "The Franchise" available, one should be a very skeptical shopper.

 
There has been lots of talk around Denver that Tulowitzki wants to leave in order to get a chance at a ring.  This quote is from a recent article in the Denver Post:
 
"In Todd Helton, there's someone who's easy to look at his career here and how it played out. I have the utmost respect for Todd, but at the same time, I don't want to be the next in line as somebody who was here for a long time and didn't have a chance to win every single year," said Tulowitzki, reviewing the 17 years Helton spent as the face of a franchise that never won a division title. "He played in a couple postseason games and went to one World Series. But that's not me. I want to be somewhere where there's a chance to be in the playoffs every single year."
 
http://www.denverpost.com/kiszla/ci_26088640/tulo-cargo-feel-ok-trade-winds
 
While Tulowitzki is having a great season, his injury history is definitely a cause for concern.  
 
With the change in his workout routine - inspired by a tennis player, Tulo may have finally figured out how to stay on the field:  http://www.si.com/tennis/beyond-baseline/2014/06/05/novak-djokovic-troy-tulowitzki

 

[Return of the Dewey]

 
There has been lots of talk around Denver that Tulowitzki wants to leave in order to get a chance at a ring.  This quote is from a recent article in the Denver Post:
 
"In Todd Helton, there's someone who's easy to look at his career here and how it played out. I have the utmost respect for Todd, but at the same time, I don't want to be the next in line as somebody who was here for a long time and didn't have a chance to win every single year," said Tulowitzki, reviewing the 17 years Helton spent as the face of a franchise that never won a division title. "He played in a couple postseason games and went to one World Series. But that's not me. I want to be somewhere where there's a chance to be in the playoffs every single year."
 
http://www.denverpost.com/kiszla/ci_26088640/tulo-cargo-feel-ok-trade-winds
 
While Tulowitzki is having a great season, his injury history is definitely a cause for concern.  
 
With the change in his workout routine - inspired by a tennis player, Tulo may have finally figured out how to stay on the field:  http://www.si.com/tennis/beyond-baseline/2014/06/05/novak-djokovic-troy-tulowitzki

 
Hate to say it, but he's be perfect piece for MFY to pursue to play SS next season.

 

[MakMan44]

 
Hate to say it, but he's be perfect piece for MFY to pursue to play SS next season.

With what? 

 

[Return of the Dewey]

 
Hate to say it, but he's be perfect piece for MFY to pursue to play SS next season.

 

With what? 

I didn't say that they had pieces to get him...no clue what they have.

 

[ivanvamp]

I'm not saying I don't like Tulo, because I do.  And for a SS his bat is terrific.  But here are his career road numbers:
 
.275/.349/.470/.820, 1 hr every 22.9 ab
 
I mean, that's pretty solid, and he's a player I'd love to have.  But if I had to choose between him and Stanton, I'd take Stanton.  Mostly because the Sox have several quality in-house options to fill SS, but really not much at all to fill the OF.  

 

[Adrian's Dome]

I'm not saying I don't like Tulo, because I do.  And for a SS his bat is terrific.  But here are his career road numbers:
 
.275/.349/.470/.820, 1 hr every 22.9 ab
 
I mean, that's pretty solid, and he's a player I'd love to have.  But if I had to choose between him and Stanton, I'd take Stanton.  Mostly because the Sox have several quality in-house options to fill SS, but really not much at all to fill the OF.  

 
Plus, both will likely cost similar prospect packages, and Stanton is a lot younger. Tulo's great, but doesn't make a lot of sense for us with our infield flexibility.
 
Stanton is essentially a perfect fit.

 

[BosRedSox5]

Cafardo just tweeted that Neal Huntington is at Fenway... I wonder if he's on official business. 
 
https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/487318458666082304

 

[Corsi]

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  40s
Sources: #Reds’ Phillips out a while. Ligament issue, possible tear, in left thumb. #Nationals’ Harper missed 57 games with torn ligament.
 

 
 
Drew?

 

[DJnVa]

 
 
 
 
Drew?
 

 
 
To play a position he never played in the majors?