The Future of Alex Cora in Boston
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Do not teams usually appoint an interim manager? If so, could be anyone. Likely candidates could be: Febles, Varitek and Tracy. But, probably it would be a guy who is already in house.
If it does happen, my guess is it would be during the All-Star break.
Sure, if you are throwing in your cards. But who the next guy to lead the team for realz?
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I think there's a checklist that needs to be followed when firing a manager mid-season, IMO there needs to be more evidence to uproot the team mid-season than simply waiting for the offseason to evaluate:
1) Team is terrible/underperforming.
2) Manager is making moves antithetical to the analytics, managing by "feel".
(Note: During the long regular season, when trends tend to play themselves out. In the playoffs, managing by feel can be a great asset.)
3) Front office & ownership are unhappy over performance on top of the results.
4) Players are sniping and the clubhouse is openly revolting.
For Cora:
1) I'd argue this team is not underperforming significantly compared to where I expected them to be based on the roster.
2) If anything, he seems to be sticking to the script more than in his first year or two on the job. Cora is actually using "Openers" which I have no doubt he previously scoffed at off the record as a broke team's (Rays) invention. His bullpen usage is questionable at times, but garbage in/garbage out. He is using the guys that Bloom gives him. And Brasier was left with Cora far too long, "Full Tilt" was his most unhealthy obsession.
3) See above, that he is managing the team much to the front office's satisfaction. The process is being followed, so the F.O. cannot be too mad at the results.
4) I have not closely followed the team outside of games this season, but have not seen any catchy headlines that made me think there is clubhouse dissension. (Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.)
We aren't seeing what's happening behind the scenes, but a mid-season change would just be "shaking it up" with no obvious upside because there is nothing particularly egregious that I see in Cora's performance. But YMMV
1) Team is terrible/underperforming.
2) Manager is making moves antithetical to the analytics, managing by "feel".
(Note: During the long regular season, when trends tend to play themselves out. In the playoffs, managing by feel can be a great asset.)
3) Front office & ownership are unhappy over performance on top of the results.
4) Players are sniping and the clubhouse is openly revolting.
For Cora:
1) I'd argue this team is not underperforming significantly compared to where I expected them to be based on the roster.
2) If anything, he seems to be sticking to the script more than in his first year or two on the job. Cora is actually using "Openers" which I have no doubt he previously scoffed at off the record as a broke team's (Rays) invention. His bullpen usage is questionable at times, but garbage in/garbage out. He is using the guys that Bloom gives him. And Brasier was left with Cora far too long, "Full Tilt" was his most unhealthy obsession.
3) See above, that he is managing the team much to the front office's satisfaction. The process is being followed, so the F.O. cannot be too mad at the results.
4) I have not closely followed the team outside of games this season, but have not seen any catchy headlines that made me think there is clubhouse dissension. (Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.)
We aren't seeing what's happening behind the scenes, but a mid-season change would just be "shaking it up" with no obvious upside because there is nothing particularly egregious that I see in Cora's performance. But YMMV
I think they only make a managerial change if ownership expected a better team and Bloom needs a scapegoat. No indication that is the case, as far as I can tell.
I agree with this. A managerial change mid season would mean that ownership expected to win this year, blowing the whole alibi that they’re building for long term success. That would invite a very large spotlight to critique Bloom’s MLB roster construction.
Cora's big skill is really blaming the players while not blaming the players. Notice the self-serving use of "we" here - it means both Alex and the coaches, and sort of the team generally. Alex is doing the right thing, but man, those bone-head players just suck. They'd suck anywhere. But we're all in it together. I'm the man to lead/focus them. But there's nothing anyone can really do, as it's all in the hands of the baseball gods.
I think the last 4 posts capture why he should not be fired. (obviously posters' MMV)
But, tbh, I dont think that "who are you gonna get to replace him" is a fair response to "Cora should be fired," given the dozens (hundreds?) of potentially qualified candidates, known and unknown to us. It's not like replacing a player we know and hate with another we know and hate less -- "play Arroyo more and Kiké less."
At this point, the most obvious problem with the team is defense. Both errors and plays not made that aren't errors. Cora tried to play defense first guys at SS -- Chang played nearly every day after Game 11, then got hurt after 2 weeks; Reyes played nearly every day from June 11 til he got hurt on the 19th. Other guys are weak defensively -- Yoshida & Casas, in particular (and a better 1Bman *might* help the SS situation) -- but their bats are pretty important. In the end, for the most part, he's trying to make the best of a lineup that relies on some weak defenders/low-baseball IQers to score any decent amount of runs.
But, tbh, I dont think that "who are you gonna get to replace him" is a fair response to "Cora should be fired," given the dozens (hundreds?) of potentially qualified candidates, known and unknown to us. It's not like replacing a player we know and hate with another we know and hate less -- "play Arroyo more and Kiké less."
At this point, the most obvious problem with the team is defense. Both errors and plays not made that aren't errors. Cora tried to play defense first guys at SS -- Chang played nearly every day after Game 11, then got hurt after 2 weeks; Reyes played nearly every day from June 11 til he got hurt on the 19th. Other guys are weak defensively -- Yoshida & Casas, in particular (and a better 1Bman *might* help the SS situation) -- but their bats are pretty important. In the end, for the most part, he's trying to make the best of a lineup that relies on some weak defenders/low-baseball IQers to score any decent amount of runs.
Ever heard of the phrase, "They won in spite of him?" Yeah, that's the case here. In 2021, Bloom picked up Schwarber and Iglesias, and they and Dalbec carried the team to the end of the regular season. As for 2018, the team was so great there was no stopping it.
Looking at the big picture, though, Cora makes bad managerial decisions on a regular basis, which is why he needs to go before next year.
I've heard the phrase. It's usually (not always) a post-hoc excuse used by people who get a different outcome than they expected in 2 of the 4.5 seasons that the manager has been managing.
As for bad managerial decisions, like batting average (or OPS vs OPS+), how does his bad-decision average stack up? Maybe he's the worst; maybe he isn't. I don't know, and I dont know where to find out. That's why I'm on @8slim's team ambivalence.
Varitek seems to be being groomed for the role as Red Sox manager. I think he would take over if Cora is fired before the end of the season. In that case, upper management could get a look at Jason and how he operates during this lost season and whether a search should be conducted during the off-season for a permanent solution.
Edit: I'm sorry for using the word groomed. I know that's a bad form in these times. If this post needs to be erased I understand.
Welcome to the team!
Cora’s no better, or worse, than almost every other manager in the game today. We know he can win a title with a great team, and we know he can have playoff success with a good team. We also know he can’t work untold magic with a mediocre team.
He’s not in my top 10 of Sox problems. Give him a better roster and we’d win more games.
I mean, Varitek? I’m sure he’s just the wizard we need to lead this current club to 95 wins.
I have to giggle at the notion that this is a "lost season" and for that Cora has to go. All pre-season predictions and projections had this team anywhere from 77 to 85 wins. They're 40-40. Seems like they're right on target with those projections. Surely a shake up at the manager's spot will squeeze extra wins out of this squad.
Well, I thought I did last year when the Vikings fired Mike Zimmer (I'd been screaming for that for a few years!). I wanted Doug Pederson, I got Kevin O'Connell. It worked out pretty well anyway. Unfortunately though, as a Vikings fan, I haven't had the luxury of knowing Bill Belichick was going to be my team's head coach every year.
Not as to Varitek specifically, but do teams do that -- bring in an interim who they think has potential to be "the guy" long-term to "see how he operates?" I hope it would take something really extreme to change their view on whether they think he's the guy. If they think that, they should give him the job in the winter, not in the midst of what they'd be admitting is a lost season.
I agree with all of this. If they didn't expect better, Cora shouldn't be fired. If he is, I think 'tek is the right move.
Alex Cora's awfulness was already baked into the expectations.
Kidding. Mostly. Firing him mid-season barring scandal or open mutiny would be pretty foolish, though.
I don't think they bring in interims specifically to evaluate their long term prospects, but there certainly have been cases in which interim managers perform well enough to become the long term guy. Most recent example is Rob Thomson in Philly. He was named the interim manager when they fired Girardi last year, led them to the World Series, and got himself a multi-year deal in the process.
How's that working out for them?! (kidding).
I was focused more on the "evaluation" part. If an interim manager does what Thomson (or Joe Morgan) did, it would be nearly impossible *not* to give him the job if he wanted it.
Sure, the no nothing pundits didn’t anticipate this team being good, but it’s not terribly relevant- what were the expectations among those who have the ability to fire the manager? Hard to know for sure, most of what is on record was fairly vague, likely intentionally, and of the “we will compete” vein. Which I think one can make an argument that the team is doing. Similar to last year, with the expanded playoffs, they are likely to be within a handful of games of a playoff spot unless they really fall apart.
I think this is a really good way to look at things.
Personally, I had the team at (I think) 79-83 or somewhere thereabouts just below .500 and in last place in the division, based not only on the roster, but the players in the high minors knocking on the door and - as importantly - based on the rosters of the other teams in the division. Almost exactly half way through the season, and they're a game better than that, even assuming a loss tonight.
This wasn't a team that was constructed to contend unless things unexpectedly went really well in 2021 (and it did - awesome!) nor in 2022 (and it didn't), nor in 2023 (and it really hasn't). It's really tough to blame the manager when the informed section or Red Sox fans (SoSH) look at the team and expect mediocrity - not to mention the vast majority of general fans / media look at the team and expect suck - and you get exactly what was expected.
Had the team gone out and addressed the multitude of needs many of us identified in the off-season with good players, then there may be more reason to consider firing Cora. But his inability to take a bad roster and make it good isn't really a justifiable cause for firing.
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Tek would be a good choice as interim coach. Personally, I'm fine with the use of "groomed" in this context. It communicates exactly what you want it to, right? That's what language is for!
Unfortunately, we can't compare Boston's record with Cora with that of a "replacement level" manager. I suppose one could try to construct a computer program that could run simulations with a coach using analytics to make decisions. Run the thing a thousand times or so to get an "expected" record, then compare it to Cora's team. I wouldn't put any weight on it, though, because the game isn't played on paper (or a computer).
I’m just struggling with the idea that talking with the players will help them improve the defense. Maybe I’m too old school, but don’t you learn by doing?
You take ground balls, practice your throws, fielding those throws, hitting the cut off man, the double play turn, you practice all of those little things so that when you’re in the game you can do it through muscle memory.
What good does talking about it do?
You take ground balls, practice your throws, fielding those throws, hitting the cut off man, the double play turn, you practice all of those little things so that when you’re in the game you can do it through muscle memory.
What good does talking about it do?
Excellent post.
"Fire the manager" threads are fallacy clearinghouses that always come down to "Cora used a guy and he stunk!" imo. We're this data driven community with high standards, but that seemingly goes out the window when presented with an unknowable system (because we don't have anything close to full insight into what goes into a given managerial decision). These discussions (coming, as they always do, when the team is playing poorly) feel like the equivalent of evaluating pitchers based on wins and losses. Why do we keep doing this to ourselves?
Hopefully the talking takes place during actual intruction/drills and is not a substitute for.
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The idea that firing the manager will improve the infield defense has shades of Bobby Valentine at spring training in 2012, a focus on "fundamentals" and "accountability." If there's any latent Morgan Magic in this team it will be awakened by the return of Trevor Story.
FWIW, I've seen tweets from beat guys a few times recently noting that the Sox were doing defensive drills during their pre-game activities. See below a PeteAbe tweet from the Chicago series.
View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1672680203414282241
The best way for the Sox to improve their defense and overall baseball IQ… is to play guys who are good at defense and have above average baseball IQ. We don’t have enough of either of those guys. That’s on the front office, not Cora.
Not that younger major leaguers can’t improve. But aside from those guys, the cake is baked. The team has been generally poor at fundamentals for a few years now, because that’s the way the team was constructed.
Not that younger major leaguers can’t improve. But aside from those guys, the cake is baked. The team has been generally poor at fundamentals for a few years now, because that’s the way the team was constructed.
I've been pretty critical of Cora but I'm also not sure what managers really bring and/or don't bring. They're not creating plays or schemes to baffle the opposition. It's pretty much a wind-it-up and let-it-go type of coaching. My biggest issue with him has been (not just in this season, but as far back as '21 when I had him specifically targeted if they missed the post-season that year) his "marathon" approach in giving time-off, pulling starters, not riding bullpen guys all in the name of the "marathon" season. My feeling is that you always try to win the game at hand (unless you're way ahead in the standings), forget about bullpen/player management tomorrow.
I think he blew it using Ort in Minnesota when they had a chance to win 7 straight games. That decision took some wind out of the team and they've been spiraling downwards since. It's obviously not provable that using pitcher X would have won (they needed two innings after failing to score) but Ort is the human white flag. There's not one player that doesn't know that (and it's on Bloom IMO that he's still on the damned team). He then threw Casas under the bus (a F'in rookie!) when that was a goddamned difficult play that even the best defensive 1B don't make every time....
I think he blew it using Ort in Minnesota when they had a chance to win 7 straight games. That decision took some wind out of the team and they've been spiraling downwards since. It's obviously not provable that using pitcher X would have won (they needed two innings after failing to score) but Ort is the human white flag. There's not one player that doesn't know that (and it's on Bloom IMO that he's still on the damned team). He then threw Casas under the bus (a F'in rookie!) when that was a goddamned difficult play that even the best defensive 1B don't make every time....
Things like coaching are likely more of a fuzzy org. thing, with 60-70% landing on Cora and 30-40% landing on Bloom. Cora appears to have final say on coaches and drills, but Bloom certainly has some kind of input into where the focus should be.
In terms of effectiveness of coaching, there's certainly a physical aging curve in play for things like defensive range in the OF, but I am unconvinced that mid-career players cannot improve - offensively or defensively. Xander, for example, took a defensive step forward at SS at age 29, which he attributed to better coaching and preparedness, rather than say, eye surgery or something. I'll grant you that some individuals can't or won't, but it's a bit silly to suggest that the Sox have simply been supremely unfortunate in their acquisitions.
I don't think they've been unfortunate, they just haven't particularly valued defense when putting together the roster. They'd rather have Kike and his versatility and Yoshida and his bat and Casas and his offensive upside. Schwaber, Duvall, Hamilton, Cordero, Hosmer... It seems like this has been happening long enough to be a real trend, not just noise. Maybe I'm overlooking somebody, but the only major plus defender they've brought in during recent years is Story.*
* I guess Kike the centerfielder would count too, but they seem determined to minimize that sometimes.
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Is this by design or just the way it worked out? I don't think it's that they don't care about defense. Rather, they have a set of parameters they are working with -- spend close to the tax, careful with long term commitments, don't trade away prospects. Given the number of holes they had to fill, getting players who were plus in every facet of the game, at every roster spot, wasn't on the table. They signed Yoshida because they liked the value he bought to the team -- it just happened that said value is concentrated on defense. But given your examples of Story and Kike, I see no reason to think that in the future, they won't continue to being in guys with high defensive value. Their drafts the past few years have been very heavy with up-the-middle players.
Sample size is pretty low there. Obviously they got Yoshida for his bat, but there was nothing in Kiké's prior history to suggest he'd become incapable of routine throws at SS this year. They did also acquire good D in Chang and Reyes before they both went down.
I also think we've seen genuine defensive improvement from existing players- Verdugo, Raffy, Duran (and X) have all trended positive over time.
Hosmer has 4 gold gloves on his resume. Granted, they were a few years ago and gold gloves aren't exactly the end-all of defensive prowess, but he at least has a reputation as a competent if not above average fielder at his position. He didn't stick because his bat plus defense didn't equate to Casas' bat plus defense.
Chang has a strong defensive rep. He got hurt. JBJ was re-acquired and he remained a strong defender. He just couldn't hit (away from Fenway in particular) enough to justify keeping him in the lineup. It hasn't all been hit-no-field guys.
I do think moondog hits it on the head...limited budget, limited supply. Can't acquire plus defenders for every position while still trying to field a lineup with some plus hitters in it. I'd also suggest that at least some of this can be laid at the feet of the shift ban as well. Especially with players acquired before the ban went into effect (so most of the guys you cite on your list). It's possible they overlooked defensive weaknesses when acquiring players because they could be covered by defensive alignments. That's less of an option now.
Aside from defense, I think this team has played with a frustratingly low baseball IQ for several seasons now. Even in 2021 I recall a lot of people here bemoaning how dumb they’d play at times.
If people think that’s largely on Cora that’s fine. I don’t. I think we have simply employed, for various reasons, a lot of ball players who play kinda dumb.
If people think that’s largely on Cora that’s fine. I don’t. I think we have simply employed, for various reasons, a lot of ball players who play kinda dumb.
Bloom knew the shift ban was coming and still made Kike Hernandez his shortstop. He put a player in center field in Duvall who is a very poor CFer. Yoshida is a below average defender. He relied on an oft-injured utility player in Arroyo to man 2nd base. Valdez was absolutely brutal in his place. Casas is clearly not ready to play quality defense. The only above average defensive players on the field are Verdugo and Wong. He knowingly put a team on the field that had defensive issues all over. There's no excuses for how bad they are.
No doubt -- he's the guy getting the players. (I doubt Cora puts Hernandez at SS if he thought he'd be *that* bad. In fact, he puled him from short two weeks into the season). Whether Bloom generally thinks that Bball IQ is overrated (or at least takes a back seat to other things) or whether this is just the price he's paying in this "trying to compete without tanking while also rebuilding" period is hard to tell.
Yeah, I’m thinking Chaim knew exactly what he had this year but couldn’t really do much about it while maintaining the integrity of the rebuilding process while getting as much offense as he could. But I certainly expect improvements next year on this front.
Duval had not been a poor OF (or a poor CF, in limited time). Hernandez, in limited time had not been a poor SS; he'd been quite good elsewhere in the field. At least good enough on paper to play half a season there. Or less if Mondesi had responded like many players to the surgery he had. And the manager removed him after 2 weeks; and Story got hurt; and Chang got hurt; and Reyes got hurt.
While I am not a big Cora fan, I largely agree with this. If you prioritize the acquisition of players that can hit the ball 450ft but strike out 40% of the time and don't have a position they can play reliably then what is any manager supposed to do? I think this was a general tendency across baseball as the result of the extreme shifts, with the thought being we can hide players on defense by shifting and lets get players that can hit 'over' the shift of the opposing teams. I expect this will change going forward and baseball will begin to value more skill sets than just power. Hopefully, Bloom is leading the way soon
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Verdugo was not at all an above average RF until this season. He was a shitty LF last year. In just over 1000 innings over his career in right field prior to this season, he had a -2 DRS and a -6.2 UZR. Thanks to a +7 DRS and a +5.6 UZR so far this year, his overall numbers are trending to neutral/average territory. All of which suggests that players can improve with a little effort and concentration.
That's the problem here though. The players here were all complete question marks whether health related or defensive prowess. Duvall is a corner outfielder playing out of position in center. Acquiring an oft-injured in Mondesi who on top of the ACL injury had trouble staying on the field in prior years. They knew Story had issues with his elbow to the point that he had to play 2nd base so when asked to play SS he immediately gets hurt again trying to get his arm ready. These issues should not have been a surprise to anyone.
I haven't seen sources implying this is how things went; do you have one or is this supposition?