2014 Non-Celtic Offseason News and Rumors

[Blacken]

The Sixers don't care about season ticket sales and they shouldn't because the goal remains rings. You win, they show up. The marginal value of a few wins now is less than the value of lots of wins later. Fortunately, they have a very sharp organization (Hinkie impresses me) that gets this.

Sports fans are, for the most part, cattle. They moo a bit and give you their money anyway. The Celtics are never going to lose money because they can't fill the gym and they'll be back when you're good, so BFD.

 

[bowiac]

With respect to Ariza, one somewhat curious thing that I've always meant to look into the aging curve for wings. The data I've seen suggests that they continue to improve defensively into their early 30s, even as (presumably) their athleticism declines.

 

[Brickowski]

I'm not sure what you're arguing. Boston will never be in a position to sign a top tier FA by being under the cap as this provides zero flexibility to maneuver the way Ainge prefers. Green's salary "slot" can be used in this manner or in other ways to provide this flexibility......whether it be a max guy or a $6-13m dollar player.

In the case of our TPE it WAS flipped to create a slot and added flexibility that the TPE didn't provide. It may turn out to be meaningful but in Thornton's case probably not.
Edit: What Dev said.

The TPE wasn't "flipped" to create a slot: it was used to trade for two players, one of whom has an expiring contract. That contract might be allowed to expire or traded at the deadline.

And contrary to your assertion, Ainge will have the cap space to sign a max free agent in 2015 because he's got 33 million in expiring contracts plus $9M more if Green opts out. Even if Green doesn't, and if Ainge exercises his team options on every single one of his young players he's still got only $32M in committed salaries for 2015-16. That's 30 million under the current $63M salary cap.

We can have the ad nauseum discussions about which free agent, and whether or not a particular FA would want to come to frigid Boston, but Ainge is certainly in a position to offer the max, and if Green opts out, to offer two players the max.

 

[knucklecup]

The Sixers don't care about season ticket sales and they shouldn't because the goal remains rings. You win, they show up. The marginal value of a few wins now is less than the value of lots of wins later. Fortunately, they have a very sharp organization (Hinkie impresses me) that gets this.

Sports fans are, for the most part, cattle. They moo a bit and give you their money anyway. The Celtics are never going to lose money because they can't fill the gym and they'll be back when you're good, so BFD.

Completely agreed.

With Deng and Ariza now gone, Stephenson likely not an option, etc... There are going to be teams who, like the Celtics, are thin at the position and in need of a wing.

For instance, my Bulls fans roommates aren't too excited about relying on Snell, Dunleavy, Butler and McDermott to make up the Bulls set of 2's and 3's.

Green could be a fit there.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

You're right. Everybody is really excited about Thornton's expiring contract, and not the free first round pick Ainge got in the deal.

The last time we had the 30th pick we selected JR Giddens. I'm not very excited about a late late 1st rounder that can be bought fairly cheap without that trade. Of the three assets acquired its probably the least valuable although all 3 are fungible.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The TPE wasn't "flipped" to create a slot: it was used to trade for two players, one of whom has an expiring contract. That contract might be allowed to expire or traded at the deadline.

And contrary to your assertion, Ainge will have the cap space to sign a max free agent in 2015 because he's got 33 million in expiring contracts plus $9M more if Green opts out. Even if Green doesn't, and if Ainge exercises his team options on every single one of his young players he's still got only $32M in committed salaries for 2015-16. That's 30 million under the current $63M salary cap.

We can have the ad nauseum discussions about which free agent, and whether or not a particular FA would want to come to frigid Boston, but Ainge is certainly in a position to offer the max, and if Green opts out, to offer two players the max.

I'm not too interested since the max couldn't even pry Gordon Hayward with an overpay and was what was necessary for another role player in Chandler Parsons. This plan for a non-prime destination is suicide which is why Ainge doesn't get involved in these crazy ideas. The only chance is if Flip doesn't move Love instead electing to lose him for 30 cents on the dollar in a sign-n-trade next summer......extremely unlikely.

 

[Brickowski]

$30M in cap space is what it is. You can use it wisely or stupidly. But unless Ainge makes major moves between now and June, 2015, it will be at his disposal.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

The last time we had the 30th pick we selected JR Giddens. I'm not very excited about a late late 1st rounder that can be bought fairly cheap without that trade. Of the three assets acquired its probably the least valuable although all 3 are fungible.

The Cavs are gonna have the best record in the league next year? Good to know. And again, there is literally no downside, and the upside is a cost controlled role player. What's not to like?

 

[mcpickl]

The last time we had the 30th pick we selected JR Giddens. I'm not very excited about a late late 1st rounder that can be bought fairly cheap without that trade. Of the three assets acquired its probably the least valuable although all 3 are fungible.

This feels like a crazy quest you're on.
 
You're upset that the Celtics return on the nothing they traded away wasn't a bigger haul?
 
What were you expecting to get back for nothing?
 
Maybe lower the expectations a smidge.

 

[mcpickl]

TPE's are not a "slot." A TPE arises from the simple fact that teams have one year to complete a non-simultaneous trade. In a "simultaneous trade" (everything happens at once) a team can take back 150% of the salary it sends out (125% for taxpaying teams). In a non-simultaneous trade, it can only take back 100% (with a $100k fudge factor for both types of trades).

In the Pierce-Garnett deal a year ago, the Celtics sent out $10.3M more salary than they took in. So they had a year to complete the trade by adding up to $10.3 M in additional salary to complete the trade without having to send out any more.

That's not a "slot" and neither is Green's $9M.

BTW the Nets now have an $8.6M exception for Thornton that will expire on 7/12/15, and the Cavs have a much smaller exception for Zeller.

I think the Nets actually get a small exception for the difference between the salaries of Thornton and Jack/Karasev.
 
The Cavs got exceptions for Zeller and Jack, but have to renounce both to get under the salary cap to sign LeBron.

 

[knucklecup]

RT @WojYahooNBA: Houston will not match the $46M Dallas offer sheet for Chandler Parsons, league source tells Yahoo Sports.

 

[luckiestman]

Mavericks to the finals

 

[knucklecup]

Mavericks to the finals

Starting Five:

PG - R Felton
SG - M Ellis
SF - C Parsons
PF - D Nowitzki
C - T Chandler

 

[bowiac]

Starting Five:

PG - R Felton
SG - M Ellis
SF - C Parsons
PF - D Nowitzki
C - T Chandler

Largely because my numbers (shockingly) think Felton isn't a complete turd, I'm pretty high on this team.

 

[radsoxfan]

Largely because my numbers (shockingly) think Felton isn't a complete turd, I'm pretty high on this team.

 
Felton has been a really tough guy to predict year to year…. but even so, if your numbers think Felton is due for yet another rebound, I'd have a tough time trusting them.
 
Regardless of Felton though, that could be a pretty good team. 

 

[knucklecup]

Largely because my numbers (shockingly) think Felton isn't a complete turd, I'm pretty high on this team.

I was going to suggest Rondo for this team but they don't have many/any assets.

 

[knucklecup]

RT @WojYahooNBA: Euro star Nikola Mirotic's deal with the Chicago Bulls will be three years, $17M-plus, league source tells Yahoo Sports.

 

[bowiac]

Felton has been a really tough guy to predict year to year…. but even so, if your numbers think Felton is due for yet another rebound, I'd have a tough time trusting them.
 
Regardless of Felton though, that could be a pretty good team. 

To be clear, I think he's a low end PG, but not a complete disaster either. I just mean when I look at that lineup, it's not like they're playing the equivalent of Andrea Bargnani or something. Maybe like the 20th best PG or something, which isn't great, but as noted, PG is deep, so that's fine. Better than someone like Mario Chalmers, not as good as someone like Kemba Walker.

 

[Devizier]

Calderon has some warts, but he's considerably better than Ray Felton. That's a huge downgrade. Monta Ellis is decent, but the rest of their guards are like a trash fire.

 

[Tony C]

I agree on that. Felton is horrible. Calderon is underrated.
 
I thought this article on how Gasol was a poor signing for the Bulls was amazingly stupid. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11208525/nba-gasol-deepens-bulls-push-ran-status
 
Somehow Doolittle turns Gasol's 18 WARP and Boozer's negative WARP last season and takes that as evidence they're pretty much equivalent to each other. Absolutely bizarre manipulation of numbers to get there.
 
That said, I am curious how much Gasol will contribute. While I'm quite certain he'll be tons better than Boozer, I will admit this line in the article made me nod: "Gasol often looked like he was skating backward when covering the pick-and-roll." That's a right-on description.
 
But Gasol still has a remarkable offensive touch, both shooting and passing, and playing defense in D'Antoni's no D system isn't a good way to judge a guy. No one on the Lakers was playing defense. For some reason Gasol couldn't have been more abused by D'Antoni, who seemed to be out to humiliate him from day 1. In a better system for his talents, with a coach who both wants him and knows how to utilize the talent he has rather than bemoan that a guy isn't perfect for his system, I imagine Gasol will be the one who rebounds some next year...certainly not the carcass of Boozer.

 

[Brickowski]

I think the Nets actually get a small exception for the difference between the salaries of Thornton and Jack/Karasev.
 
The Cavs got exceptions for Zeller and Jack, but have to renounce both to get under the salary cap to sign LeBron.

Yes, thanks for the correction.  I forgot there were other players in the deal.  But  still TPE's are the difference between what went out and what came in for the team that sent out more salary, and it's good for a year.
 
BTW, I also think Dallas is seriously improved.  IMHO they can contend if Chandler stays healthy and is productive.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

That said, I am curious how much Gasol will contribute. While I'm quite certain he'll be tons better than Boozer, I will admit this line in the article made me nod: "Gasol often looked like he was skating backward when covering the pick-and-roll." That's a right-on description.

 
Gasol may have appeared to be skating backwards, but that's still better than what Boozer was doing, at least according to this article - http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/07/13/what-pau-gasol-will-bring-to-chicago-that-carlos-boozer-couldnt/.  Here are two pictures:
 

 
 
 

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Orange Is The New Boozer?

 

[Sprowl]

Orange Is The New Boozer?

 
Red Hot and Boozer

 

[knucklecup]

Detroit has lost their mind...

Caron Butler = 2 years, $9 million
DJ Augustin = 2 years, $6 million

 

[Just a bit outside]

Detroit has lost their mind...

Caron Butler = 2 years, $9 million
DJ Augustin = 2 years, $6 million

Again

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Detroit has lost their mind...

Caron Butler = 2 years, $9 million
DJ Augustin = 2 years, $6 million

Butler's deal is one year with a team option for the second, so it's basically 1/4.5.

And that Augustin deal isn't going to do any real damage. 3 million a year isn't much and Van Gundy's offense needs a ton of shooters. Easily moveable/buyoutable.

 

[radsoxfan]

Detroit has lost their mind...

Caron Butler = 2 years, $9 million
DJ Augustin = 2 years, $6 million

 
I feel comfortable declaring them better than the Villanueva and Gordon deals right now.
 
So that's an improvement I guess. 

 

[Brickowski]

I don't know the right place to post this, but Red Klotz died today at age 93.
 
http://www.harlemglobetrotters.com/news/globetrotters-mourn-passing-red-klotz

 

[Statman]

Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA 1m

Chicago informed Carlos Boozer and his agent, Rob Pelinka, this morning that it would use amnesty clause today, source tells Yahoo.

 

[BigMike]

Boozer would seem to be a great addition to the Cavs for the league minimum if he wants to chase a ring

 

[Devizier]

Boozer would seem to be a great addition to the Cavs for the league minimum if he wants to chase a ring

 
He sure would. Carlos would have to be content with a 7th-8th man bench role, though. He looked completely cooked last year.

 

[jon abbey]

Teams under the cap get the first shot at him, the Cavs aren't under the cap anymore, are they?

 

[jon abbey]

Also there is some crazy history with Boozer and the Cavs, of course, where he totally fucked them over. If he doesn't opt out in 2004, maybe LeBron never leaves in 2010...
 
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=1836318

 

[Devizier]

Which sub-cap team wants him? I guess the Lakers, who need bodies to fill their roster?

 

[bbc23]

Also there is some crazy history with Boozer and the Cavs, of course, where he totally fucked them over. If he doesn't opt out in 2004, maybe LeBron never leaves in 2010...
 
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=1836318

Yep, after all the Cavs did to placate him I see that as a much bigger fuck you than when LBJ left the Cavs. 

 

[knucklecup]

RT @Chris_Broussard: Sources: Lance Stephenson accepts 3 yr, $27 million deal with Charlotte

What a signing for Charlotte.

 

[Brickowski]

RT @Chris_Broussard: Sources: Lance Stephenson accepts 3 yr, $27 million deal with Charlotte

What a signing for Charlotte.

I thought I saw rumors that Indiana offered him more than that.

 

[Silent Chief]

Seriously, 27 MM with a team option on that third year!?  And Bradley got 32 over 4?
 
The Hornets are still a pu pu platter of average, but hard to pan this move. 

 

[Ed Hillel]

That's a crazy good contract. If he was really all about the money, why would Danny not beat that and move Rondo for free? I wonder if teams know about something we don't? Is it just that nobody with the cap space wants him for nothing? Yikes.

 

[DavidTai]

Maybe there's an opt out in there somewhere?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I thought I saw rumors that Indiana offered him more than that.

 
Pacers offered him 5/$44 but wouldn't go shorter.  http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11221796/lance-stephenson-charlotte-hornets-3-year-27-million-deal
 

Maybe there's an opt out in there somewhere?

 
No opt-out.  Team option for third year.  I suspect by this time it has nothing to do with money and everything to do with perception or respect.
 
Pacers had a difficult cap situation which meant they couldn't raise the offer.  Not sure they would have if they could have but I think Roy Hibbert is going to be happy.
 
More on Pacers cap situation here:  http://8points9seconds.com/2014/07/15/pacer-cap-situation-july-15th-lance-stephenson/?utm_source=FanSided&utm_medium=Network&utm_campaign=FS%20Widget#!bfXGKa

 

[moondog80]

Good for the Hornets, actually trying to get better one piece at a time instead of tanking.  Same with the Pelicans -- granted, they scored big with Anthony Davis, but I'm one of the few that didn't hate the Jrue Holliday and Omer Asik deals.  I'll be rooting for both of them.
 
Also, it's going to be about 30 years before I stop confusing those teams.  I saw the headline and figured that they most have found a taker for Eric Gordon. 

 

[bowiac]

Good for the Hornets, actually trying to get better one piece at a time instead of tanking.  Same with the Pelicans -- granted, they scored big with Anthony Davis, but I'm one of the few that didn't hate the Jrue Holliday and Omer Asik deals.  I'll be rooting for both of them.

You're gonna feel differently about this when you see what a monster Nerlens Noel is going to be. Signing Lance to a free agent deal is a long ways from trading two top 10 picks for the right to pay Jrue Holiday free agent dollars. We talk a lot about how deep the PG position is, and while I think that's overstated, it's salient with respect to how much you should trade to get one that isn't under some super cheap deal or something.
 
In most cases, I prefer a rebuild to a tank job, but I think New Orleans is doing it wrong. That's fine though, lets us get excited for the Anthony Davis sweepstakes in a few years.
 
With respect to Lance, it seems like he wanted a shorter deal (surprised he couldn't get 2 years), in hopes of further proving himself and getting something really huge in a few years (with the much talked about bigger cap). I think it probably makes sense assuming he's not gonna do something really dumb with the guaranteed part of that money.

 

[DavidTai]

With respect to Lance, it seems like he wanted a shorter deal (surprised he couldn't get 2 years), in hopes of further proving himself and getting something really huge in a few years (with the much talked about bigger cap). I think it probably makes sense assuming he's not gonna do something really dumb with the guaranteed part of that money.

 
Given his on-court antics, I'm having a hard time thinking he's not gonna do something really dumb. He just... he just gives you that vibe of being crazy / dumb enough to go nuts off-court.

 

[moondog80]

You're gonna feel differently about this when you see what a monster Nerlens Noel is going to be. Signing Lance to a free agent deal is a long ways from trading two top 10 picks for the right to pay Jrue Holiday free agent dollars. We talk a lot about how deep the PG position is, and while I think that's overstated, it's salient with respect to how much you should trade to get one that isn't under some super cheap deal or something.
 
In most cases, I prefer a rebuild to a tank job, but I think New Orleans is doing it wrong. That's fine though, lets us get excited for the Anthony Davis sweepstakes in a few years.
 
With respect to Lance, it seems like he wanted a shorter deal (surprised he couldn't get 2 years), in hopes of further proving himself and getting something really huge in a few years (with the much talked about bigger cap). I think it probably makes sense assuming he's not gonna do something really dumb with the guaranteed part of that money.

 
We'll see on Noel.  But regardless of how he turns out, isn't it likely that the trade was agreed upon before the draft began?  When most expected Noel would not be available and the pick would be someone like Alex Len or Ben McLemore?  Would the deal look any different if Philly ended up with one of them?   The value of the pick, when NO traded it, was relatively low; the Sixers lucking out and ending up with the next Dikembe Mutombo won't change that.
 
Also worth noting that New Orelans' season might have gone really differently were it not for injuries to Holiday and Ryan Anderson.  Maybe you can't pin finishing 15 games out of the playoffs on just that, but they could easily have moved themselves a few spots down in the draft, which would have decreased the value of the pick they gave up this year.

 

[Devizier]

I didn't like the Holiday trade, largely because Jrue just hasn't been a very good NBA player to date. Even healthy, he's probably in the lower third of starting NBA point guards. I'm not particularly fond of the 4/41 contract, either, although I guess you have to gamble on potential sometimes.

 

[bowiac]

I didn't like the Holiday trade, largely because Jrue just hasn't been a very good NBA player to date. Even healthy, he's probably in the lower third of starting NBA point guards. I'm not particularly fond of the 4/41 contract, either, although I guess you have to gamble on potential sometimes.

I don't have a great sense of Holiday as a player, but for what it's worth, the various plus/minus stats like him a lot more than the box score numbers. The plus/minus metrics are a lot more in line with "conventional wisdom" there. Having not watched that many 76ers or Pelicans games though, or really followed those teams much, I don't have a good sense of what's going on however.

 

[Devizier]

I don't have a great sense of Holiday as a player, but for what it's worth, the various plus/minus stats like him a lot more than the box score numbers. The plus/minus metrics are a lot more in line with "conventional wisdom" there. Having not watched that many 76ers or Pelicans games though, or really followed those teams much, I don't have a good sense of what's going on however.

 
I'll say this, he's a very good defender. Or was, with the 76ers.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Seriously, 27 MM with a team option on that third year!?  And Bradley got 32 over 4?
 
The Hornets are still a pu pu platter of average, but hard to pan this move. 

 
Agreed---not a Bradley hater, but if the choice were available, would much rather gamble on Stephenson's crazy than Bradley continuing to grow....