Stitch01 said:So that running game better get fixed up by Sunday or they're going to lose at home to the Browns unless Kamar Aiken is a lot better than I remember.
Forsett rushed for 150 yards this week.
Stitch01 said:So that running game better get fixed up by Sunday or they're going to lose at home to the Browns unless Kamar Aiken is a lot better than I remember.
One more loss will probably cook them but they have no margin for error now.Stitch01 said:So they are done.
Teams that are 6-6 have no margin for error.jsinger121 said:One more loss will probably cook them but they have no margin for error now.
NortheasternPJ said:Plus next year they have to either extend Flacco again or start dealing with cap numbers of 28.5, 31 and 24.75 over the next 3 years.
They're only at $15 mill this year. Gotta pay sooner or later.
dcmissle said:As noted in another thread, if SS Sr. is serious about retirement, he should be traded by Nov 3.
I'd love to have him.
Top flight lines on both sides of the ball; more importantly what looked a rebuilt secondary with enough pass rushers to keep the pressure on. The defense supposed to be top-10; instead it's bottom 10 as other than Brandon Williams and a couple of players on the defensive line, every other player on defense regressed or didn't play up to expectations or got hurt.Not sure what Greg Bedard saw in the Ravens to think they were going to win the Super Bowl in his mind. They lost their best receiver in Torrey Smith. The TE's stink. Outside of the aging and gimpy Steve Smith the WR's all stink as well. The secondary is awful and they cannot get pressure. They are awful.
Of the something like 20 first rounders Ozzie has selected, he's gotten something around 57 pro bowl seasons. You didn't mention guys as good as Peter Boulware, Chris McAlister, and Jamal Lewis (each picked in the top 10) and also guys like Todd Heap and more recently CJ Mosley. And that doesn't even include Flacco, who while not getting to a pro bowl definitely counts as a first round hit.It's becoming increasingly clear to me that Ozzie is the home run hitter of GMs: he lucks into pro bowlers in the first round (Lewis, Reed, Suggs, Ngata all radically outperformed their draft status) but otherwise is pretty mediocre.
They really haven't drafted wide receivers at all - since Torrey Smith in 2011 (a big hit in the second-round) he hasn't used more than a sixth- or seventh- rounder until Perriman in the first this year. Perriman's been hurt, so we can't really judge that pick.wade boggs chicken dinner said:Of the something like 20 first rounders Ozzie has selected, he's gotten something around 57 pro bowl seasons. You didn't mention guys as good as Peter Boulware, Chris McAlister, and Jamal Lewis (each picked in the top 10) and also guys like Todd Heap and more recently CJ Mosley. And that doesn't even include Flacco, who while not getting to a pro bowl definitely counts as a first round hit.
Recently, however, his record has been more spotty. And the most glaring part of Ozzie's drafts is his inability to draft playmaking WRs, which seems notably absent these days given how CIN and PIT seems to real one in with every draft. Ozzie seems to only draft tall WRs, which is curious given how the game is progressed. For instance, the Ravens could have had Stefon Diggs, who played at UMD, in the fourth round but they decided to draft (and probably reach for) a project in Tray Walker. Diggs is someone they really could have used right now.
I think this is right. Over enough time, every GM has good drafts and bad drafts and any actual edge in drafting / evaluating players is tiny.wade boggs chicken dinner said:I think I mentioned this elsewhere, but the Ravens philosophy is not that they draft better than every team in the league but that they should have more chances - i.e., picks - than every team in the league, which they have (they' had 44 compensatory picks since 1994, which is tops in the NFL). See http://wnst.net/baltimore-ravens/ravens-awarded-three-compensatory-picks-in-2015-draft/.
They had two bad drafts - 2012 (Upshaw has been a disappointment, Osemele is good but a G rather than T, and Pierce / Gradkowski / Thompson in the 3rd/4th gave them nothing) and 2013 (Elam / Arthur Jones in the first two rounds, though Brandon Williams and Ricky Wagner later salvage things somewhat). This is kind of what happens two-three years after a couple bad drafts - the talent falls off. They had a similar dip in 2013, going 8-8 three years after the Oher / Kindle drafts.wade boggs chicken dinner said:But the problem is that when a team is giving up guys who are getting multi-year contracts and signing guys who don't require compensation, there comes a point where a couple of whiffs can really hurt the personnel. The Ravens are lacking playmakers right now and missing on their last few 1st and 2nd round draft picks (other than Mosley) makes that obvious.
Which is a long way of saying that people are starting to ask the same questions about Ozzie as you are.
Super Nomario said:They had two bad drafts - 2012 (Upshaw has been a disappointment, Osemele is good but a G rather than T, and Pierce / Gradkowski / Thompson in the 3rd/4th gave them nothing) and 2013 (Elam / Arthur Jones in the first two rounds, though Brandon Williams and Ricky Wagner later salvage things somewhat). This is kind of what happens two-three years after a couple bad drafts - the talent falls off. They had a similar dip in 2013, going 8-8 three years after the Oher / Kindle drafts.
He played fewer than half the snaps in 2014. He's a role player, which has some value, but as you note he's given them zero pass rush - his last sack was in 2013. He's not a bust bust, but I think "disappointment" is fair.Rudy's Curve said:
Has Upshaw been a disappointment? He obviously hasn't offered any pass rush that you would normally expect from a high-second rounder but I imagine they thought he would be the Jarret Johnson-type edge setter which he seems to have done very well. I could be way off, though.
Super Nomario said:They really haven't drafted wide receivers at all - since Torrey Smith in 2011 (a big hit in the second-round) he hasn't used more than a sixth- or seventh- rounder until Perriman in the first this year. Perriman's been hurt, so we can't really judge that pick.
I think this is right. Over enough time, every GM has good drafts and bad drafts and any actual edge in drafting / evaluating players is tiny.
They had two bad drafts - 2012 (Upshaw has been a disappointment, Osemele is good but a G rather than T, and Pierce / Gradkowski / Thompson in the 3rd/4th gave them nothing) and 2013 (Elam / Arthur Jones in the first two rounds, though Brandon Williams and Ricky Wagner later salvage things somewhat). This is kind of what happens two-three years after a couple bad drafts - the talent falls off. They had a similar dip in 2013, going 8-8 three years after the Oher / Kindle drafts.
I think questioning Ozzie is a little silly. They haven't had a losing season since 2007, and they've had a lot of injuries this year. They're not even that bad - none of their losses have been by more than 6 points, so their point differential (-19) is actually 17th in the league. I expect them to win some of these close games and finish 7-9 or something.
I assume they'll restructure Flacco at some point - he's only 30, so they can add a couple years and some guaranteed money without it being a backbreaker. I don't disagree that a lot of the core - Suggs, Yanda, Steve Smith, Dumervil, Webb - is old, but there are also some key young pieces like Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley. A lot of it will come down to whether some of the young players can develop into stars / near-stars, which basically puts them in the same boat as a lot of other teams.Shelterdog said:It really depends on what you think about the team going forward--I think this is an old team without a lot of talent under good contracts and they're quickly going to go from underpaying to massively overpaying for their QB.
Sure. And getting an excellent QB takes absurd luck, too. So luck is always a big piece of it. In general, I think Newsome runs his team the way you'd expect a smart GM would - maximizing compensation picks to get as many swings as he can in the draft, re-signing the players he needs to and letting other guys walk - it's almost a cliche how poorly ex-Ravens defenders fare on their new teams - , generally aligning his investments with his team's needs and the relative value of those positions, and acknowledging and moving on from failures. Even though 2015 has been a disaster, it's not hard to find position groups where Ozzie has done a great job, like the offensive line - trading for Monroe and Zuttah really solidified that group. The edges are all small but they add up, and Newsome's track record reflects that, as well as some luck. That's the NFL.Shelterdog said:Ozzie is fine but I'm dubious about his ability to put together consistent playoff teams going forward--I think the reality is that no matter how good you are you have to be absurdly lucky to put together winning teams without an excellent QB.
Super Nomario said:I assume they'll restructure Flacco at some point - he's only 30, so they can add a couple years and some guaranteed money without it being a backbreaker. I don't disagree that a lot of the core - Suggs, Yanda, Steve Smith, Dumervil, Webb - is old, but there are also some key young pieces like Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley. A lot of it will come down to whether some of the young players can develop into stars / near-stars, which basically puts them in the same boat as a lot of other teams.
Sure. And getting an excellent QB takes absurd luck, too. So luck is always a big piece of it. In general, I think Newsome runs his team the way you'd expect a smart GM would - maximizing compensation picks to get as many swings as he can in the draft, re-signing the players he needs to and letting other guys walk - it's almost a cliche how poorly ex-Ravens defenders fare on their new teams - , generally aligning his investments with his team's needs and the relative value of those positions, and acknowledging and moving on from failures. Even though 2015 has been a disaster, it's not hard to find position groups where Ozzie has done a great job, like the offensive line - trading for Monroe and Zuttah really solidified that group. The edges are all small but they add up, and Newsome's track record reflects that, as well as some luck. That's the NFL.
Super Nomario said:I assume they'll restructure Flacco at some point - he's only 30, so they can add a couple years and some guaranteed money without it being a backbreaker. I don't disagree that a lot of the core - Suggs, Yanda, Steve Smith, Dumervil, Webb - is old, but there are also some key young pieces like Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley. A lot of it will come down to whether some of the young players can develop into stars / near-stars, which basically puts them in the same boat as a lot of other teams.
Sure. And getting an excellent QB takes absurd luck, too. So luck is always a big piece of it. In general, I think Newsome runs his team the way you'd expect a smart GM would - maximizing compensation picks to get as many swings as he can in the draft, re-signing the players he needs to and letting other guys walk - it's almost a cliche how poorly ex-Ravens defenders fare on their new teams - , generally aligning his investments with his team's needs and the relative value of those positions, and acknowledging and moving on from failures. Even though 2015 has been a disaster, it's not hard to find position groups where Ozzie has done a great job, like the offensive line - trading for Monroe and Zuttah really solidified that group. The edges are all small but they add up, and Newsome's track record reflects that, as well as some luck. That's the NFL.
Shelterdog said:
We generally agree. I do think Ozzie probably relies a little too much on star players in their thirties (Boldin, Smith Sr., Lewis, Suggs, Yanda, Birk, now Dumervil and Webb) but then again it's worked out for them--Suggs is the only one of those deals that looks like it might blow up in their face) and they get HiGH levels of performance from the older players so maybe it's not just luck.
I heard God’s voice. I did. he came to me from somewhere in the darkness of that holding cell—said, “Can you hear me now?”
And underneath this voice, in the middle of that darkness, there was a message—came in clear and loud and true.
The message: whatever much and more I had to slog through in that jail cell in Atlanta, it would strengthen me.
Whatever shadows there were now, hanging over me and my family, it would strengthen me.
Whatever dirt these people in law enforcement were determined to do to my name, my standing, my pride, it would only strengthen me.
Can you hear me now?
Oh yes—yes, I can hear you! Yes!
Stitch01 said:Big fan of the "I couldn't have murderd someone I was dressed to the nines and wouldn't want to wreck my clothes" defense
Over enough time, every GM has good drafts and bad drafts and any actual edge in drafting / evaluating players is tiny.
I think there are a few incompetent teams at any given time and that once you get over the competency hurdle, there isnt much difference.The first part is no doubt true---however, I'd be pretty surprised if the second part is. Have you seen a study or analysis suggesting this? I wonder a bit if we're taking the fact that no one is perfect and over-extrapolating that to 'everyone is pretty much the same'
What we wanted to focus on was the reality that there’s much more randomness in the draft than people realize. Cade Massey and Richard H. Thaler, behavioral psychologists, analyzed the draft and found that not only is there no persistent skill among teams in picking players – teams have good years and bad years in equal measure – but that across all players and positions, teams only picked a player better than the person who went next at that position 52 percent of the time. Their academic paper is here, but Massey explained this in a much more accessible way in a recent talk at the Sloan/MIT sports analytics conference.
PedroKsBambino said:
The first part is no doubt true---however, I'd be pretty surprised if the second part is. Have you seen a study or analysis suggesting this? I wonder a bit if we're taking the fact that no one is perfect and over-extrapolating that to 'everyone is pretty much the same'
Interesting that both Baltimore and New England are not listed for either service.There are twelve teams in BLESTO (ATL, BUF, CHI, CLE, DAL, DET, HOU, JAC, MIA, MIN, NYG, PIT).
There are fifteen subscribers to the National (AZ, CAR, CIN, DEN, GB, KC, NO, NYJ, PHI, STL, SD, SF, SEA, TB, TEN). National Scouting also is the logistical organizer of record for the event in Indianapolis.