Yep. I feel like he is already ours. I may cry if he’s not a Red Sox.Anyone else do a little fist pump when he got out of that jam even as we were nervously looking at his pitch count with a proprietary interest?
He's been in and out of the top 3 all season. I don't see any way that tonight changes anything. Teams have plenty of film to look atGreat pitching in the 7th with guys on and over 100 pitches. I wonder if he just pitched himself into a 1-3 draft position and out of reach for the Sox
If it were purely a question of talent, he would not last to no. 4. It's about the bonus.Great pitching in the 7th with guys on and over 100 pitches. I wonder if he just pitched himself into a 1-3 draft position and out of reach for the Sox
If that turns out to be an issue they can always trade him for Delino DeShields.As good as Leiter looks, I wish has was a bit bigger (Between 5'11'' and 6'0'' according to a scout, not the listed 6'1''). It's rare Boston gets a #4 choice and I worry about his smallish size wearing down during a big league season
How would you feel if he were there at 4 and they passed on him?I was 99.9% on the Leiter train before tonight. Now I’m at 100%. Kid is just really, really good. I’m going to be so bummed if someone takes him top 3.
Depends on the pick but if they go Henry Davis or something over him, I won’t be pleased.How would you feel if he were there at 4 and they passed on him?
(This is my nightmare)
If that turns out to be an issue they can always trade him for Delino DeShields.
My nightmare is that they draft Leiter but he wants more $$$ than they are willing to pay and he returns to Vandy.How would you feel if he were there at 4 and they passed on him?
(This is my nightmare)
That would suck too. But I would think they would be aware of his contractual demands before drafting him, no?My nightmare is that they draft Leiter but he wants more $$$ than they are willing to pay and he returns to Vandy.
Yeah it would be malpractice to pick a guy that high and start playing hardball then. Unless he has some kind of weirdo representation, everyone knows his number and will act accordingly.That would suck too. But I would think they would be aware of his contractual demands before drafting him, no?
It would also be malpractice by whoever was advising Leiter. What if he is injured next year pitching for Vandy? Works both ways, plus with the slotting system, how much wiggle room does the team and player have?Yeah it would be malpractice to pick a guy that high and start playing hardball then. Unless he has some kind of weirdo representation, everyone knows his number and will act accordingly.
In the top 5? Offers will probably vary by up to a million or so. Some teams, like Pittsburgh, have a supplemental pick and therefore larger bonus pool. They could use more of that on their #1, plus exceed their pool by up to 5%, without much penalty (merely a tax). But that’s not their M.O. Leiter’s looking for a team that’s willing to pay the most they reasonably can for that one top player and accept less costly talent in later rounds.It would also be malpractice by whoever was advising Leiter. What if he is injured next year pitching for Vandy? Works both ways, plus with the slotting system, how much wiggle room does the team and player have?
Plus, there are already rumors that Leiter would prefer being in the Sox system vs. teams like the Pirates, Rangers, and Orioles. If it's the case that he prefers to be in a big-market system, this year is by far his best chance - next year he would be looking at being drafted by the likes of the Royals, Orioles, Marlins, or Pirates. When you add in the risk that he gets injured next year, or just doesn't perform as well and slips in the draft (or slips anyway because he'll be one year older with that much more mileage on his arm) it would be pretty crazy to walk away from the Sox unless they were just absurdly intransigent in their negotiations, which they wouldn't be.It would also be malpractice by whoever was advising Leiter. What if he is injured next year pitching for Vandy? Works both ways, plus with the slotting system, how much wiggle room does the team and player have?
4. Red Sox: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas)
Leiter may be the Red Sox preferred target and he should get here unless the Rangers take him. Otherwise, Boston likely will pick between Lawlar and Davis.
4. Boston Red Sox: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
The Red Sox are a huge inflection point in this draft, as they seem to be on the main three college names in Leiter, Rocker and Davis, and now are likely to have a choice of at least two of them.
Is that a terribly high flameout rate? I guess the question is compared to what.Still don’t love taking Davis, a “potential .265 hitter” who might not stick behind the plate, that early, especially entering an era where a core component of catching (defense) could matter less than ever.
Here are the backstops drafted within the top 10 picks in the last 25 years:
Mauer, Rutschman, Bryce Harper (1)
Joey Bart (2)
Eric Munson, Jeff Clement, Mike Zunino (3)
Tony Sanchez (4)
Posey, Matt Wieters (5)
Kyle Skipworth, Alex Jackson (6)
Shea Langoliers (9)
Jason Castro, Zack Collins (10)
Mauer and Posey are generational talents. Bart and Rutschman are still developing, but the other guys flamed out or, in the case of Wieters and Castro, had middling (yet disappointing) careers. (Harper’s not a great comp as a draftee people thought had a HoF-potential bat that everyone projected to the outfield.)
Is that a higher flameout rate than other position players taken that early? It seems so to me. Catchers seem to have different development arcs than other players, and better international scouting has really opened up the field.
Jack Leiter
Leiter’s name seems to be in play in each of the first three spots, but there’s also been a lot linking Boston and Leiter here at No. 4. A month ago we had Leiter at this spot but noted that both he and teammate Kumar Rocker had raised a few questions. Leiter has put up stupid numbers in his last three starts since then: 21 innings, three earned runs, nine hits, 36 strikeouts, six walks.
If Leiter isn’t available here the Red Sox might become a bit of a wild card, though both Lawlar and Louisville catcher Henry Davis would make sense on talent—though we haven’t heard much specifically linking those players to Boston. This is the presumed floor for Leiter at this point.
Interesting, thanks. Pull back that time frame a couple years and we get Josh Hamilton, J.D. Drew, Vernon Wells and Corey Patterson in that early-drafted outfielder crew, but you’re right that there’s not an overwhelming disparity there.Is that a terribly high flameout rate? I guess the question is compared to what.
Just to compare, I pulled down the top-10 picks who were outfielders between 2000 and 2015 (to exclude the very young). Harper's on this list, too, which — who knows.
View attachment 42162
Also, I know Matt Wieters was appointed to the HOF by the internet when he was still in A-ball, but his 18 WAR would be third on the OF chart (Castro would be sixth). If that's a "middling" career, I think the standards might be too high.
To be fair, it isn't terribly unlikely that Conforto, Buxton, and Beni pass him on that list. I could see Happ, Meadows, and Tucker potentially squeezing past Wieters as well. But to bolster your point a bit, the 2016 draft began with OF Mickey Moniak being selected #1 followed by OF Corey Ray #5. I think the MLB draft is just so much of a crapshoot that you really have to believe in the best judgement of your team's front office and hope that they know what they are doing.Is that a terribly high flameout rate? I guess the question is compared to what.
Just to compare, I pulled down the top-10 picks who were outfielders between 2000 and 2015 (to exclude the very young). Harper's on this list, too, which — who knows.
View attachment 42162
Also, I know Matt Wieters was appointed to the HOF by the internet when he was still in A-ball, but his 18 WAR would be third on the OF chart (Castro would be sixth). If that's a "middling" career, I think the standards might be too high.
I'm sure they would love to have a crack at Mayer (who wouldn't), but this is the first time I've heard of a team specifically trying to manipulate a guy to go OVERslot and fall to them in a while.Mike
12:19
Hey Eric - still hearing the rumor that Leiter is pricing himself to the Red Sox at 4? Any other Red Sox rumors you're hearing?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:19
A scout told me yesterday they've kicked around what it might take to get Mayer to fall to them, even if it means over slot. KG and I will be working the phones over the weekend and have a new mock out next week
Currently sitting at 110 pitches through six innings, 5 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 11 Ks. Not too bad.Rocker scheduled to pitch on ESPN2 this afternoon
4. Red Sox: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
1. PIT - Marcelo MayerThe names here continue to be Davis, the top college bat in the country, Lawlar, Watson and Rocker, of those who weren’t taken in the top three of this mock.
Leiter is going to game his way to Boston. Chess match starts now.I'm increasingly resigned to Leiter probably not being there when the Sox pick.
4. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Few teams have more wild rumors running around them than the Red Sox. There continues to be talk of the team trying to price Leiter down to them, but most sources believe that a team ahead of them will take him and dare his camp to turn down a $7 million payday. There are rumors Boston touched base with Mayer’s camp, but that the motivation there may be to inflate Mayer’s price above whatever threshold Pittsburgh deems acceptable so that they look elsewhere and Mayer goes second, making it possible for Leiter to fall to Boston at four. We’re giving them the best player available here, as they recently conducted a private workout with Henry Davis, House and Jud Fabian. Some hypothesize that if the Leiter/Mayer gambits don’t work, they’ll look to cut an under-slot deal, with prep catcher Harry Ford mentioned, in an attempt to spread out their $11 million-plus draft pool. This is also where Kumar Rocker’s market seems to begin.
Fangraphs would have him after Cases and Downs. MLB would have him ahead of those guys.If we are lucky enough to get Leiter, would he immediately be regarded as our best prospect as far as the lists go? If not, where would he likely slot in?