2022-23 Yankees Offseason Discussion

Bread of Yaz

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Rizzo deal looking even better after Jose Abreu signs for more despite being 2 1/2 years older.
Though Abreu appears to have the Nelson Cruz-like ability to keep up his output well into his 30s and has a higher OPS in each of the last three seasons:

Rizzo: 756/784/818
Abreu: 987/832/824
 

jon abbey

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Rizzo will be helped by the new shift rules also, Keith Law thinks Abreu is about to fall off a cliff but he is wrong a huge percentage of the time.
 

EvilEmpire

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Yeah. Abreu is a better hitter and Rizzo misses more games. But the shift going away should help.

edit: a bit slow there
 

jon abbey

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Especially for the Yankees specifically, who badly need to get more left-handed, not add even more RHHs.
 

jon abbey

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Sign Judge, Rodon and Bellinger and trade Gleyber for another good young arm, Matt Brash is still my hope here.

You still maybe need to do a little work on the bullpen then but that is a better team than 2022 (depending as always on health), plus they already had by far the best defensive team in baseball by DRS this year and would be upgrading on that in a big way at three positions, Bader-CF, Bellinger-LF, Peraza-SS. If Bellinger really can't hit anymore, Cabrera is right behind him waiting, and Dominguez/Pereira not so far away (2024 I am guessing but who knows in an emergency, Pereira is on the 40 man already).

Donaldson I think they will have to keep for half a season, his defense really was fantastic at 3B last year and he seemingly can't get worse at the plate, and I think they want to give Volpe a month or two in AAA unless he really dominates in the spring. He will be easier to trade or even just DFA if it makes sense mid-season. Hicks I have no idea, but it'd be nice to give Florial a real chance as 4th OF after keeping him around so long.

The thing is I'm not sure how many excess attachable prospect assets NY has currently after moving so many last trading deadline, but we will know more after the rule 5 in a few weeks who NY still actually has. Cashman two years in a row now has done a lot of his offseason work at the previous deadline, Gallo, Rizzo, Holmes, Bader, Montas, all with at least one more year of control except Rizzo, but even him his first two months in pinstripes completely sold him on staying.
 

jon abbey

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That potential defensive team, wow.

C-Trevino
1B-Rizzo
2B-some combo of Gleyber/DJ/Volpe/IKF/Cabrera
SS-Peraza
3B-Donaldson
LF-Bellinger
CF-Bader
RF-Judge

Three center fielders in the OF, yes please.
 

jon abbey

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ESPN has an Insider (pay wall) article today about trades they could see happening, Bradford Doolittle has Gleyber going to the Tigers for "bullpen help, probably for two relievers from a list that includes Gregory Soto, Joe Jimenez, Alex Lange and Jose Cisnero." That works for me.
 

Bread of Yaz

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ESPN has an Insider (pay wall) article today about trades they could see happening, Bradford Doolittle has Gleyber going to the Tigers for "bullpen help, probably for two relievers from a list that includes Gregory Soto, Joe Jimenez, Alex Lange and Jose Cisnero." That works for me.
Jiminez is criminally underrated.
 

jon abbey

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Jimenez has just one year of control left and a 5.24 career ERA, but this would be a case where I would definitely trust whoever Cashman/NY thought made sense.
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory

EvilEmpire

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That would be a steep price, but I'll be happy if the Yankees pay it.

I'd hate to see a team with NY's resources get outbid for an iconic home grown player.

Yeah, the back end will almost certainly be rough, but we don't need a Mookie situation.
 
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Yaz4Ever

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I've said 10 years/$410M since day one. Someone is going to overpay him by a ton. Giants? Possibly, but they may push NYY to do so. In the end, he may not get exactly what I'm predicting, but I'm a lot closer than what NY offered him before 2022. Guaranteed.
 

E5 Yaz

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If the Yankees have to sign Judge to a 9 year/$340 million contract or something like that, I'd almost prefer that to Judge leaving and the Yankees being able to spread around that money to multiple players who can help.
Selfishly speaking, I hope they do offer that to Judge, if only to dissuade them from throwing crazy money at Devers a year from now
 

jon abbey

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So I think the Yankee 40 man roster is full again, although clearly they need more position players and fewer pitchers.

SP (9): Cole, Cortes, Severino, Montas, German, Schmidt, Brito, Krook, Vasquez
RP (16) : Holmes, Loaisiga, King, Kahnle, Marinaccio, Luetge, Peralta, Trevino, Weissert, Abreu, Cordero, Fernandez, Garcia, Gomez, Effross, Gil

C (3): Trevino, Higashioka, Rortvedt
IF (7): Rizzo, Torres, LeMahieu, Peraza, Cabrera, IKF, Donaldson
OF (5): Stanton, Bader, Hicks, Florial, Pereira
 

E5 Yaz

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Sure. Just paired with the other reports that Judge was upset with the Yankees for revealing negotiation details, just feels like stories being planted to make NY nervous.
Agreed ... but would you want the Yankees to give Judge $360M over 9-10 years?
edit: Judge is quote in Time about being upset, so that wasn't a planted story
 

EvilEmpire

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Eh. If the Yankees don't close the deal I'll be disappointed. FA contracts are looking inflated right now, so I assume the baseline of what is considered a fair contract is changing. Lots of money in MLB right now. I'd rather pay the guy who I know can produce in NY than roll the dice on lesser FA talent, even if I know that the back end of that contract is going to be bad.

If Judge doesn't sign, so be it, and I'll be hoping that Cashman can put that money to good use along with everyone else. But I hope it doesn't come to that.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If it's 10 years, it's $36M AAV..... that's not that insane right now.... at all... for what Judge brings.*** How do you get 3 AS for $12M each on the FA market???

***That said, I'm pretty positive he's going to be injured often in the coming years. You might get two worth while years out of that money before his tailspin.
 

EvilEmpire

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If 360 is the number, and I think it will be right around that, I hope they give him a 12 years deal. He's going to finish his career in pinstripes if he signs regardless. Get that AAV down a bit like Turner did.

Edit: Who knows what the tax threshold will be in the future.
 

Murderer's Crow

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If it's 10 years, it's $36M AAV..... that's not that insane right now.... at all... for what Judge brings.*** How do you get 3 AS for $12M each on the FA market???

***That said, I'm pretty positive he's going to be injured often in the coming years. You might get two worth while years out of that money before his tailspin.
Well, let's just say it's $36m/yr +/- 10%. I don't think the question is what can you do with $36m in free agency. It's whether or not there is a greater willingness to spend >$40m because you don't have as much long-term risk on the books. If you sign Nimmo, Conforto/Benintendi, trade for Reynolds, replace Donaldson and mix the kids in, is that a more balanced lineup that still contends? I think so.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Well, let's just say it's $36m/yr +/- 10%. I don't think the question is what can you do with $36m in free agency. It's whether or not there is a greater willingness to spend >$40m because you don't have as much long-term risk on the books. If you sign Nimmo, Conforto/Benintendi, trade for Reynolds, replace Donaldson and mix the kids in, is that a more balanced lineup that still contends? I think so.
It's the Yankees. They can do all of that.... Semi-serious.
 

jon abbey

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He's going to stay for something like 9/340 or 9/350, just like NY would be dumb to lose him over a small amount, he would be at least as dumb to leave over a relatively small amount, especially with CA taxes higher.

Anyway, I think we'll know either way today or tomorrow.
 

jon abbey

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Well, let's just say it's $36m/yr +/- 10%. I don't think the question is what can you do with $36m in free agency. It's whether or not there is a greater willingness to spend >$40m because you don't have as much long-term risk on the books. If you sign Nimmo, Conforto/Benintendi, trade for Reynolds, replace Donaldson and mix the kids in, is that a more balanced lineup that still contends? I think so.
Why would you sign two OFs and trade for a third even without Judge? And trading for Reynolds would seriously impact 'the kids' that you could 'mix in'.

Anyway, I still think Judge to NY so this won't be an issue, hopefully.
 

jon abbey

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The Twitter vibes around Judge right now are not good for Yankee fans, but who knows.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Why would you sign two OFs and trade for a third even without Judge? And trading for Reynolds would seriously impact 'the kids' that you could 'mix in'.

Anyway, I still think Judge to NY so this won't be an issue, hopefully.
I meant as option between Con/Ben. Not both. But yes, just throwing shit against the wall for a worst case.
 

StuckOnYouk

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I get that the judge contract will be huge and if you lose him you certainly have the resources to spread elsewhere but that is a massive hole in the Yankees roster if he walks.
You’d be spending a lot of time filling that hole rather than improving last years club.
 

jon abbey

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I get that the judge contract will be huge and if you lose him you certainly have the resources to spread elsewhere but that is a massive hole in the Yankees roster if he walks.
You’d be spending a lot of time filling that hole rather than improving last years club.
Or they could sign Rodon and let all the kids play with a killer pitching staff.
 

jon abbey

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If Judge really does leave, maybe NY could pivot back to Matt Carpenter, he started multiple games for NY at all of RF, LF, 1B and 3B in his two month streak across the cosmos this season. I’m not thrilled about any of the current LF FA options at the deals they’re likely to get, maybe Oswaldo gets a shot.

My worry if Judge leaves is that NY will panic like they did after Cano and sign instant millstone deals, but if they have the balls to start really aggressively promoting their kids, they could be really exciting in a year or two, tons of speed and defense.
 

Murderer's Crow

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@jon abbey I'm surprised that you see Rodon as the primary target and not another bat. Considering we've got enough SP (Cole, Sev, Cortes, Montas, German, Schmidt) I think I would rather see more bullpen and a LF.

I'd be happy with Rodon, but it feels like the offense is gonna get at least a little shuffled.
 

jon abbey

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I don't like any of the available left fielders at the price they will command, I'd prefer just to play Oswaldo there until Dominguez or Pereira is ready to step in, or trade for Reynolds. The offense will be better with the kids involved plus hopefully a healthy DJ, and the rotation would be the best in baseball with Rodon added to Cole, Cortes, Severino and Montas.