2024 UEFA Men’s European Championship

singaporesoxfan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2004
11,973
Washington, DC
This Spanish team is much more fun to watch than the 2008/2012 death by a thousand passes winners (even though those teams were still capable of huge wins)
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
44,068
AZ
It's a hard thing to research, but it feels as though there have been so many come back situations in this tournament -- far more than I can remember in other tournaments.
 

singaporesoxfan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2004
11,973
Washington, DC
It's a hard thing to research, but it feels as though there have been so many come back situations in this tournament -- far more than I can remember in other tournaments.
At the very least, three of the semi-finalists (all other than France) have come back from a goal down to win their games in the knockout rounds - England vs Slovakia and then Switzerland on pens, Spain vs Georgia, Netherlands vs Turkey
 

DamageTrain

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2014
728
Vermont
This Spanish team is much more fun to watch than the 2008/2012 death by a thousand passes winners (even though those teams were still capable of huge wins)
I was just thinking the same thing. If Spain has success could it spell the end of the Spanish tiki taka? (At least for a moment.) I'm rooting for them for that reason, though I'd like to see France score again and make this an epic match.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
44,068
AZ
At the very least, three of the semi-finalists (all other than France) have come back from a goal down to win their games in the knockout rounds - England vs Slovakia and then Switzerland on pens, Spain vs Georgia, Netherlands vs Turkey
Yeah, it started on the first matchday too. Italy over Albania. Ned over Poland. I think others took draws after being down (well, unless it's 0-0, a draw is always a "comeback" is guess). But I thought that by and large in major tournaments, the record of 1-0 leaders was really high, typically.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
44,068
AZ
I was just thinking the same thing. If Spain has success could it spell the end of the Spanish tiki taka? (At least for a moment.) I'm rooting for them for that reason, though I'd like to see France score again and make this an epic match.
I'm rooting for France to score too, but Spain seems the more likely to get a third at the moment.
 

Nick Kaufman

protector of human kind from spoilers
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2003
13,761
A Lost Time
Southgate and the FA commissioned a study on the last few championship teams to find commonalities between them, specifically the 2016 Portugal team and the 2018-present France team. They found a distinct break in how the French played in that 2016 final and how they played afterwards. Portugal played a more defensive game and were pretty risk averse, eventually beating the more attack minded French team in that 2016 final. It was almost like Deschaump said “never again”’ and structured France going forward to play more like that Portugal team. They’ve become very difficult to beat, and Southgate has implemented the findings when structuring his England team. Defense wins champions and all that. End result, both France and England are playing pretty dull, risk averse, defensive soccer which makes them very difficult to beat but has resulted in very few chances created too. Basically the plan is that the superior attackers will eventually get a goal without conceding too many chances. England have 5 goals scored in 5 games, many coming when they were forced to open up after falling behind to “lesser” teams. They’ve conceded 3 goals. France only have “scored” 3 goals (one PK and two OGs) and conceded only a penalty to Lewa.

For comparison, Spain have 11 goals for and 2 goals against while the Dutch have 9 goals for and 5 goals against (this including a 0-0 against… France).

TLDR: A France-England final will be a snore fest. A Netherlands-Spain final will likely be much more fun. Any final with one of France or England will result in that squad hoping to make it a boring, cagey game.
I remember this story from 2021 and I think now like I did back then that it’s such horseshit. The sample size is so small and there’s so much luck involved that you can’t draw any safe conclusions. France lost that2016 final because Lloris had his bell rung in the sequence before the goAl and his reaction wasn’t as good as normal. How does this prove that defense wins championships?
 

rguilmar

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
2,384
I remember this story from 2021 and I think now like I did back then that it’s such horseshit. The sample size is so small and there’s so much luck involved that you can’t draw any safe conclusions. France lost that2016 final because Lloris had his bell rung in the sequence before the goAl and his reaction wasn’t as good as normal. How does this prove that defense wins championships?
I agree. Any tournament is too small of a sample. Grouping multiple tournaments doesn’t account for changes to the game in terms of specific tactics, rule changes etc. It’s pointless. Analytics gone wild.

Just play to the strengths of your players, specifically your best and ones.
 

singaporesoxfan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2004
11,973
Washington, DC
I agree. Any tournament is too small of a sample. Grouping multiple tournaments doesn’t account for changes to the game in terms of specific tactics, rule changes etc. It’s pointless. Analytics gone wild.

Just play to the strengths of your players, specifically your best and ones.
I went to look up the reports on the study - I think the story of that study got a bit changed in the retelling, since the study also covered the 2010 Spain team and the 2014 Germany team, and was about overall tournament success and not just defensive tactics - load management, penalty approaches, group stage approaches etc. As @Nick Kaufman points out, this was a study done in 2021 and it looked like Southgate took whatever approach he learned from that very well in leading his team in the Euros that year and in Qatar the following year, playing a defensive-minded but still relatively attractive form of football. This year's version of the England team seems so dour in comparison to the 2021 and 2022 teams that I would be hesitant to blame the study.

Where Southgate and the FA have really used analytics well is their whole approach to penalties, as that picture of Pickford's water bottle shows. Makes me mad that so much heartache was caused previously because England team managers didn't think that performance in penalties could be improved.
 

67YAZ

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2000
9,506
France sorely missing a creative mid. They’re going to have gamble and press harder to get into good positions.
 

Nick Kaufman

protector of human kind from spoilers
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2003
13,761
A Lost Time
I agree. Any tournament is too small of a sample. Grouping multiple tournaments doesn’t account for changes to the game in terms of specific tactics, rule changes etc. It’s pointless. Analytics gone wild.

Just play to the strengths of your players, specifically your best and ones.
Analytics is usually good because it relies in colossal sample sizes. This seems Kline shoddy analysis, like Reep”s analysis that had 80s English teams hoof the ball up the pitch for a header.
 

rguilmar

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
2,384
France getting crosses in, but only one or two players in the box. Fine when Kolo Moani gets on the end of it, but that isn’t happening much.
 

rguilmar

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
2,384
Down to third string at both FBs for Spain. Dani Vivian is a CB by trade.

edit NM Nacho goes right
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
44,068
AZ
France sorely missing a creative mid. They’re going to have gamble and press harder to get into good positions.
Griezmann played well last game, after being silent for 30 minutes. I wonder if bringing him on late can energize them.
 

Nick Kaufman

protector of human kind from spoilers
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2003
13,761
A Lost Time
I went to look up the reports on the study - I think the story of that study got a bit changed in the retelling, since the study also covered the 2010 Spain team and the 2014 Germany team, and was about overall tournament success and not just defensive tactics - load management, penalty approaches, group stage approaches etc. As @Nick Kaufman points out, this was a study done in 2021 and it looked like Southgate took whatever approach he learned from that very well in leading his team in the Euros that year and in Qatar the following year, playing a defensive-minded but still relatively attractive form of football. This year's version of the England team seems so dour in comparison to the 2021 and 2022 teams that I would be hesitant to blame the study.

Where Southgate and the FA have really used analytics well is their whole approach to penalties, as that picture of Pickford's water bottle shows. Makes me mad that so much heartache was caused previously because England team managers didn't think that performance in penalties could be improved.
personally I soured on Southgate after the final against Italy in which I thought he engaged in scared coaching taking no risks whatsoever in a game situation where there was every reason to do so. Since I ve heard of that study at that time and I thought it was nonsense, I came away thinking that Southgate was no good.
 

67YAZ

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2000
9,506
I love Kante, but France isn’t winning this is he’s attacking the box.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
44,068
AZ
With Kolo Muani out, you're already sacrificing pace. If this goes another 5 or 10 minutes as a 2-1 game, I think you need to put Giroud on. All that fucker does is score. Can't go out by a goal with him on the bench. Fuck the Xs and Os.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
32,068
With Kolo Muani out, you're already sacrificing pace. If this goes another 5 or 10 minutes as a 2-1 game, I think you need to put Giroud on. All that fucker does is score. Can't go out by a goal with him on the bench. Fuck the Xs and Os.
If France is just going to fire hopeful crosses towards space in the box, he seems like he might be the right guy to turn one into a goal.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
44,068
AZ
If France is just going to fire hopeful crosses towards space in the box, he seems like he might be the right guy to turn one into a goal.
The guy has a soccer ball magnet in his head. The ball just finds him. As long as France are seeming to create chances, Deschamps won't do it. And he probably shouldn't -- nostalgia isn't a reason to make a substitution. But there are certain players who just find themselves in front of the net, and he's one of them.
 

67YAZ

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2000
9,506
The guy has a soccer ball magnet in his head. The ball just finds him. As long as France are seeming to create chances, Deschamps won't do it. And he probably shouldn't -- nostalgia isn't a reason to make a substitution. But there are certain players who just find themselves in front of the net, and he's one of them.
Here he comes.