I suspect too much of this board views the NFL through the lens of New England small school high school football-where the more motivated team often wins and if you ground and pound you can in fact where the d down.Stitch01 said:
AFC Championship Game: Indy @ New England
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It really does seem like this D is getting penalized for the past 10 years of Patriot defenses. They get pushed around one game and the sky is falling. The Colts played a dead Broncos team with no QB. He could not throw the football the last 6 weeks of the season. I don't believe in that defense for one second. Of course they were aggressive, Manning couldn't throw it past 10 yards. This is also the same team that got pushed around vs Tennessee late in the season. Patriots are in a perfect situation, the only team that can beat them this weekend is themselves.
It's also going to depend on the looks Indy gives them in response to different personnel groupings and formations. In their first meeting, they pounded the hell out of Colts on the ground with 6 OL sets. Maybe Indy has an answer for that - so maybe the Pats throw out of 6 OL. Or maybe they switch to 12 personnel and see if Indy goes nickel, and then run out of that set. If the running game isn't working, they'll adjust, but the adjustment may not be to scrap the run game, but to try running out of different looks to get better matchups.TheoShmeo said:
Got pushed around is awful harsh. They struggled w the run against those stupid cut block schemes (how those are legal in the player safety era is whole nother issue) and that set balt up w manageable downs and distances for much of game. D also only allowed 3pts and forced two INTs the last 25ish min of game play.
Did they play great? Absolutely not. But it wasnt the abomination of the past few playoff runs.
Regarding the offense, its clear that Brady is sharpest when they allow him to go turbo. My rough gameplan would be start out with a cpl runs to get them thinking youre going to jam it down there throat, hit a cpl PAs chunkers, grab the lead. Then id let them go turbo and tempo them to wear em down a bit, capping it by late third/early fourth pounding Blount vs a hopefully exhausted front.
Did they play great? Absolutely not. But it wasnt the abomination of the past few playoff runs.
Regarding the offense, its clear that Brady is sharpest when they allow him to go turbo. My rough gameplan would be start out with a cpl runs to get them thinking youre going to jam it down there throat, hit a cpl PAs chunkers, grab the lead. Then id let them go turbo and tempo them to wear em down a bit, capping it by late third/early fourth pounding Blount vs a hopefully exhausted front.
Im expecting a better game Sunday based on the track record of this defense this season, but Im not sure I see the performance Saturday as meaningfully better than any of the games the Patriots have been eliminated from the playoffs except maybe the AFC title game in 2006.
Guess last year was really bad, but that was against a much better offense.
Guess last year was really bad, but that was against a much better offense.
Really? I thought they played miles better on Saturday than at least the 2009 shit show against the Ravens. The defense had some bad stretches, but came through when it counted. And the offense, well, 5 TD in a playoff game is about as good as you can hope for.Stitch01 said:
I thought the run defense was quite bad overall but its worth noting that they did make some successful halftime adjustments. They basically stoned the Ravens on the first four running plays they tried in the 2nd half. On the first drive, the Ravens were stopped on 1st and 10 twice for no gain but then completed two 2nd and 10 passes to get first downs and eventually scored a TD. But on the second drive a run stop forced the 3rd and 11 that we stopped, then on the third drive a run stop forced the 2nd and 8 on which McCourty got the pick. Things went badly downhill the next drive as the Ravens made adjustments and had a bunch of success running the ball. But it wasn't all bad in the second half.
To your point, in the second half the Ravens were 11 of 23 passing (47.8%) for 146 yards (6.3 YPA), 1 touchdown, 2 INTs (46.6 QB rating). They were 16 carries for 56 yards (3.5 YPC).Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
The defense was putrid in the first half, though: 17 of 22 passing (77.3%) for 146 yards (6.6 YPA), 3 TDs, 0 INTs (133.7 rating), 12 carries for 80 yards (6.7 YPC).
Maybe they were better than in 2009, hard to compare I guess since the Ravens didn't really need to do much after the first quarter of that one. On balance though, that was a really bad defensive performance Saturday and very reminiscent of Patriots victories from 2009-2013 where we were worried about the lack of balance/reliance on the passing game. I expect better Sunday based on what we've seen from this team this season, but Saturday was really bad at pretty much all facets of defense on balance. Have the Pats won a playoff game in recent years where the defense played worse?
Shelterdog said:
I think some of the posters--not all, but some--are seeing game strategy as static from the viewpoint of before the game. The reality though, as should be clear from the total abandonment of the run in the second half last weekend--is that strategy is dynamic and they will have different planned courses of action depending on how the game actually plays out.
This is true, and when you can just keep throwing at Rashaad Melvin (14 of 18 for 210 yards and 2 TDs, 0 passes defensed), who needs a balanced attack?There is no Rev said:
Super Nomario said:
Yeah, that game has rapidly become one of my favorite examples of the coaching staff's adaptability.
"Shit, we can't run. Actually, you know what? Fuck running."
Compare that to Denver earlier this season not noticing that they were being suckered into running...
Pagano calls Blandino to get clarification on Patriots' trick plays:
http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2015/01/12/pagano-seeks-receives-clarificiation-on-patriots-trickery/21658631/
Pagano doesn't say or do anything offensive and while it's good that he's being thorough in his prep, is it really that hard to figure out what happened? Are three plays worth going the extra mile and making a phone call to the head of refs when prep time is ticking away? Well, kudos to BB for not only "fooling" the Ravens but also worrying the Colts.
http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2015/01/12/pagano-seeks-receives-clarificiation-on-patriots-trickery/21658631/
Pagano doesn't say or do anything offensive and while it's good that he's being thorough in his prep, is it really that hard to figure out what happened? Are three plays worth going the extra mile and making a phone call to the head of refs when prep time is ticking away? Well, kudos to BB for not only "fooling" the Ravens but also worrying the Colts.
The article says Pagano made the call before the Denver game. So maybe he knew there wasn't much to worry about with Manning and had some spare time on his hands.
Two unrelated issues:
I was sort of interested in what Reiss posted this morning:
" All of the Patriots’ eight postseason losses under Bill Belichick were a rematch from that regular season:
But I think this is sort of foolish actually.
Not only is there little link to the 05 Broncos here but, more importantly, every one of these teams on Reiss' list showed earlier evidence of actually being pretty tough match-ups (even the Jets). Each of these teams either beat the Pats or at least played them really close in the earlier game. That blown out Jets team won the first game that season by 14!
(And anyway, some of these Pats teams were not that great or were playing despite some big holes, in retrospect: 05, 09, 12, 13 to my mind.)
So the recent game vs. Indy looks like it would go on the list as the "which one is not like the others" choice.
But:
A pattern that does have me worried is this:
-7 Balt.
-11 Buff.
-3 NYJ
+1 MIA
-1 SD
-9 GB
These are the score differences at the half in the last six games.
I know, I've stopped while it looks bad, if you dip past thanksgiving things look better:
+18 DET
+4 IND
+20 DEN
+31 CHI
None the less, thanksgiving is a long time ago.
So I wonder, is this a cause for concern? Have the Pats developed a late season rope-a-dope strategy for the first half? What gives? SSS noise? Obviously it only hurt them vs. GB (leaving aside the garbage game vs. Buff) but none the less, it is hardly a winning formula to regularly trail at the half.
I was sort of interested in what Reiss posted this morning:
" All of the Patriots’ eight postseason losses under Bill Belichick were a rematch from that regular season:
- 2013 AFC Championship -- Broncos
- 2012 AFC Championship -- Ravens
- Super Bowl XLVI -- Giants
- 2010 divisional -- Jets
- 2009 wild card -- Ravens
- Super Bowl XLII -- Giants
- 2006 AFC Championship -- Colts
- 2005 divisional -- Broncos
But I think this is sort of foolish actually.
Not only is there little link to the 05 Broncos here but, more importantly, every one of these teams on Reiss' list showed earlier evidence of actually being pretty tough match-ups (even the Jets). Each of these teams either beat the Pats or at least played them really close in the earlier game. That blown out Jets team won the first game that season by 14!
(And anyway, some of these Pats teams were not that great or were playing despite some big holes, in retrospect: 05, 09, 12, 13 to my mind.)
So the recent game vs. Indy looks like it would go on the list as the "which one is not like the others" choice.
But:
A pattern that does have me worried is this:
-7 Balt.
-11 Buff.
-3 NYJ
+1 MIA
-1 SD
-9 GB
These are the score differences at the half in the last six games.
I know, I've stopped while it looks bad, if you dip past thanksgiving things look better:
+18 DET
+4 IND
+20 DEN
+31 CHI
None the less, thanksgiving is a long time ago.
So I wonder, is this a cause for concern? Have the Pats developed a late season rope-a-dope strategy for the first half? What gives? SSS noise? Obviously it only hurt them vs. GB (leaving aside the garbage game vs. Buff) but none the less, it is hardly a winning formula to regularly trail at the half.
wiffleballhero said:
One thing to note, all of their losses were a rematch, but many of their wins were too.
- 2012 divisonal -- Texans
- 2011 divisonal -- Broncos
- 2007 AFC Championship -- Chargers
- 2006 divisonal -- Jets
- 2004 AFC Championship -- Steelers
- 2004 divisional -- Colts
- 2003 AFC Championship -- Colts
- 2003 divisonal -- Titans
- Super Bowl XXXVI -- Rams
This is an interesting list. As recent, relevant comps. (at least in terms of point differences) the '12 Texans (42-14 reg. / playoffs 41-28) and '11 Broncos (41-23 reg/ playoffs 45-10) look nice. Maybe not all that meaningful, but I'll take that pattern!DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
My guess is that its 75% statistical noise but there may also be a dynamic going on where they game plan to introduce a lot of their best strategic wrinkles in the second half and sometimes end up outsmarting themselves by choosing suboptimal strategies in the first half (ie, playing nearly exclusively in zone for the first few Ravens drives).)wiffleballhero said:
Thank you. I immediately wondered about the opposite. I think the original claim qualifies as selection bias, or at least something close.DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
It is sort of selection bias but to the extent that it is an interesting grouping from Reiss it is in what he does not write, but what is inherent to the list: The Pats have never (since 2000) lost a post season game to a team they have not played earlier in the year.twothousandone said:
twothousandone said:
With few exceptions, teams in the playoffs are good. If you go beyond that, teams that the Pats lose to in the playoffs tend to be quite good. If you add on top of this that the NFL designs the schedule with the goal that you play the best teams in your own conference in the regular season, then the result doesn't look so surprising.
M
MentalDisabldLst
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2 of each team's 16 games are selected based on their team's division finish the previous year. Since the Pats have won division titles 12 of the last 14 years, those 2 scheduled teams are nearly always themselves division winners, often repeat division winners.
Of the 8 "rematch" playoff losses under Belichick, two were to NFC teams and one was to a division rival. Of the other 5, 3 (2013 AFCCG vs DEN, 2012 AFCCG vs BAL, 2009 WC vs BAL) were rematches due to previous year's finish . The 2006 game vs IND and 2005 vs DEN were from annual divisional rotation.
Here are the results-based games the Pats have had on their schedule, and the outcomes:
Of the 8 "rematch" playoff losses under Belichick, two were to NFC teams and one was to a division rival. Of the other 5, 3 (2013 AFCCG vs DEN, 2012 AFCCG vs BAL, 2009 WC vs BAL) were rematches due to previous year's finish . The 2006 game vs IND and 2005 vs DEN were from annual divisional rotation.
Here are the results-based games the Pats have had on their schedule, and the outcomes:
- 2014: CIN (W), IND (W)
- 2013: CIN (L), DEN (W)
- 2012: BAL (L), DEN (W)
- 2011: PIT (L), IND (W)
- 2010: SD (W), IND (W)
- 2009: BAL (W), DEN (L) - 2nd place teams in 2008
- 2008: IND (L), PIT (L)
- 2007: SD (W), IND (W)
- 2006: DEN (L), CIN (W)
- 2005: PIT (W), IND (L)
- 2004: IND (W), KC (W)
- 2003: DEN (W), CLE (W) - 2nd place teams in 2002
- 2002: PIT (W), TEN (L)
- (before 2002, it was a different divisional alignment / scheduling system)
MentalDisabldLst said:
That really is impressive.
Only 1 time in 14 years have the Pats lost both of their "schedule parity" games.
This franchise is so remarkable.
johnmd20 said:
And it may well have been different without the personal foul on David Thomas, at that.
M
MentalDisabldLst
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Belichick: Andrew Luck has no weaknesses.
Definitely some bulletin board material for Luck. Well, Luck's mother Kathy, for her refrigerator door or scrapbook, anyway.
Definitely some bulletin board material for Luck. Well, Luck's mother Kathy, for her refrigerator door or scrapbook, anyway.
Colts LB McNary hit with rape charge today for incident in November.
LINK: http://fox59.com/2015/01/14/indianapolis-colts-linebacker-charged-with-rape/
LINK: http://fox59.com/2015/01/14/indianapolis-colts-linebacker-charged-with-rape/
M
MentalDisabldLst
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that wily Belichick, getting indictments the exact week he needs them. McNary started all but 3 games this season.
Something tells me the Colts won't release McNary until, at earliest, Monday.
Something tells me the Colts won't release McNary until, at earliest, Monday.
I'd expect Godell to use his powers to suspend like he did with the others this season. I can't see anyway he plays if he is indeed charged.MentalDisabldLst said:
How is high praise bulletin board material? What you said Luck's mother might do with it, OK.MentalDisabldLst said:
Not sure where you're getting that. This guy has hardly played on defense since Week 4, other than the meaningless Week 17 game. He may get burn on special teams.MentalDisabldLst said:
M
MentalDisabldLst
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Al Zarilla said:
Exactly. It's the opposite of what usually passes for "bulletin board material" in the NFL, unless you're talking about where you put your christmas cards and report cards for kids at home.
Espn picked up the McNary Story at 5:55, set the clock to 100 hours before team response/reaction...
It should be interesting to see how they will respond, lots of pressure for the NFL to not screw this up given the attention the playoffs get.
It should be interesting to see how they will respond, lots of pressure for the NFL to not screw this up given the attention the playoffs get.
Roger's getting right on it, a new ad campaign is in the works- Peter King crying on camera remembering that time the press room ran out of free hot dogs.*
* No more...??
* No more...??
The link says an arrest warrant has been signed. If they arrest him and then he gets out on bail, isn't one of the conditions usually not leaving the jurisdiction (not sure exactly which court this is, but presumably its jurisdiction does not include Foxboro, where the game will happen)?ifmanis5 said:
Or will the police let it sit until Monday?
Speaking of hot dogs... Does anyone know why Maine serves up those red ones? Don't know if its the color, but I swear it makes them taste better. Helen's in Machias has a good one. I think Luck will look awfully similar to a Maine red dog by the 4th.
McCrary is done, for this year anyway. This is a case based on facts from 6 weeks ago. They investigated it in very non-Tallahassee PD style. He's charged with rape, which is a violent felony against a female. Far worse than an elevator smack down. He's done until he's tried and (if ever) exonerated.
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