Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread

[Red Averages]

Amazing.
I thought that was going to be about someone bragging and getting demolished after the fact which always seems to happen to me when I discuss markets. As I said, glad I’m out of state to avoid the eventual humble pie. Back for the playoffs…

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Amazing.
I thought that was going to be about someone bragging and getting demolished after the fact which always seems to happen to me when I discuss markets. As I said, glad I’m out of state to avoid the eventual humble pie. Back for the playoffs…

Nice! I’m leaving tomorrow to return home to FL as I was up here for last week and a half. I played some at Fan Duel Mohegan and drooling over the option I had, especially UFC. I only hope FL is able to fix their Indian mess like CT eventually did.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Well you don’t get any more perfect than last night! Tonight I have one play and several opinion sides……

* Lakers +11.5 is the play. Classic “Mavs take foot off pedal game” similar to last nights Raptors. In this case they fly out after the game to Cleveland and don’t figure to run out and hide against a LeBron-less Laker team that I’d expect to be scrappy. So we have scrappy vs complacent and scrappy getting 11.5 yeah sign me up for that!

I would lean Bucks, Wizards and Nets in some other games.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

GJGE Lakers.

Grabbed Nets -3.5 in-game. Pistons 8-12 from three. Once that normalizes I expect the Nets to win the 4Q matchup game.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Grabbed Nets -3.5 in-game. Pistons 8-12 from three. Once that normalizes I expect the Nets to win the 4Q matchup game.

Pistons 8-26 rest of the way. The perfect handicap.

* Lakers +11.5 is the play.

The….uh….not so perfect handicap.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

We’ve talked about how the Pistons, when healthy, do not resemble a bottom feeder. They’ve been covering machines over the 2H of the season and I expect this to continue tomorrow at home against the Sixers. Already maxed out the overnights…..

* Detroit +11

 

[HomeRunBaker]

We’ve talked about how the Pistons, when healthy, do not resemble a bottom feeder. They’ve been covering machines over the 2H of the season and I expect this to continue tomorrow at home against the Sixers. Already maxed out the overnights…..

* Detroit +11

Adding Utah -13.5 to tonight’s slate. Should be very motivated to face a LeBron-less Laker team in a get well spot at home following 5 consecutive road losses and a trip to Golden State coming up.

May click some fun player props in the Bucks/Nets game as it will be on in front of me at the poker table. Should be tons of scoring and this is the type of game where the stars come out looking for their offense. Thinking of taking each of the 4 stars to go Over their Points total for peanuts. 4-0 > 0-4 as this one could play like an All-Star game into a high 240/250 pace until defenses clamp down in rhe 4Q and pace closes. Peanuts for fun though

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Pistons was an easy outright win getting 11 overnight and I bought more at 10 in morning. Utah……well. We needed Greg Freakin Monroe to make his FT’s to go up 4 secure win…..or make 1 to force the Lakers to make a 3 to beat us. He missed them both and LA comes down to make a layup to lose by 13. Betting sports is fun they said.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

To help ease the Jazz/Laker pain I had opened a site I hadn’t used daily since football ended……to find a Celtics +350 Division ticket that I didn’t know I had. I still don’t remember placing it but not complaining.

More on Lakers…….we all have our kryptonite team and this years for me in the NBA is undoubtably LA. Variance maybe? I had some wicked runs with them during pandemic between their infamous 4Q Unders and the bubble “first basket scored” in the playoffs when they were winning every jump ball and LeBron was deferring on the first possession (remember the crazy KCP and JaVale prices we cashed?). The tide has turned. Lost three of their 4Q Unders earlier in the year to OT and I think I’ve been on the wrong side of the last 4 times I’ve played their games. Fun stuff.

 

[BigSoxFan]

To help ease the Jazz/Laker pain I had opened a site I hadn’t used daily since football ended……to find a Celtics +350 Division ticket that I didn’t know I had. I still don’t remember placing it but not complaining.

More on Lakers…….we all have our kryptonite team and this years for me in the NBA is undoubtably LA. Variance maybe? I had some wicked runs with them during pandemic between their infamous 4Q Unders and the bubble “first basket scored” in the playoffs when they were winning every jump ball and LeBron was deferring on the first possession (remember the crazy KCP and JaVale prices we cashed?). The tide has turned. Lost three of their 4Q Unders earlier in the year to OT and I think I’ve been on the wrong side of the last 4 times I’ve played their games. Fun stuff.

I am like 1-10 on Lakers bets this year. Doesn’t matter what the bet is, I lose. So, I gave up.

 

[Red Averages]

Capitulation. Time to start better lakers games...

 

[Marceline]

To help ease the Jazz/Laker pain I had opened a site I hadn’t used daily since football ended……to find a Celtics +350 Division ticket that I didn’t know I had. I still don’t remember placing it but not complaining.

It's really coming down to the wire on that, I had it at +600 (think I mentioned it upthread). I keep debating if I should hedge but I'm just riding it out.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

It's really coming down to the wire on that, I had it at +600 (think I mentioned it upthread). I keep debating if I should hedge but I'm just riding it out.

I have a +450 (or it may be 425) but this one I forgot about. The Sixers really do seem to be crumbling though. I wouldn’t hedge yet. There may be a spot after the next two games though if it gets up closer to +300 the other way. Those last two games could easily flip the Sixers way.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Here we go back to old faithful to get off the Lakers schnide! Under 232.5 early 4Q & Under 230.5 mid-4th! Market prices rhe 4Q at 59 points which is the highest I think I’ve ever seen. It pays to pay attention.

 

[Red Averages]

Kansas*
Duke*
Unders in both.*

*I am due to get smoked so partake at your own risk…

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Played Kansas & Duke small.

Played Over super duper sized in Duke/UNC. 1H & Full Time. Soft rims at this venue and a frantic pace. The last time I was there in ‘87 we saw Freddie Banks hit 10 threes for UNLV and I think Steve Alford went 8-8.

Played Roach Points Over 10.5

Played Roach MVP at +1400

Also, played Atlanta Hawks +2

 

[Red Averages]

Played Kansas & Duke small.

Played Over super duper sized in Duke/UNC. 1H & Full Time. Soft rims at this venue and a frantic pace. The last time I was there in ‘87 we saw Freddie Banks hit 10 threes for UNLV and I think Steve Alford went 8-8.

Played Roach Points Over 10.5

Played Roach MVP at +1400

Also, played Atlanta Hawks +2

Uh, oh. I went big on the Duke/UNC under. I wasn’t out there measuring the rims and the line drifted up an extra point and I publically jinxed myself and forced a bet in this week despite being out of state, so this should bode well for you. Good pay back for the alpha over the years…

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Uh, oh. I went big on the Duke/UNC under. I wasn’t out there measuring the rims and the line drifted up an extra point and I publically jinxed myself and forced a bet in this week despite being out of state, so this should bode well for you. Good pay back for the alpha over the years…

I actually follow a group who was down on the floor the past two days doing all sorts of analysis on the rims and sight lines but didn’t think of posting the link here. Sorry. The game hasn’t even tipped yet so nothing is decided yet. I do expect a track meet regardless of rims.

I snuck in an extra Hawks +160 in-game ML in the 1Q so here’s to the Nets feeling relegated to a play-in.

 

[Red Averages]

Let that be a lesson, folks. When you say you’re stepping away, step away. Thankfully I only bet 1/3 of what I made after breaking the “hold me back rule!

What a game! Can’t believe coach K lost after being in a tie game with his team in the bonus with 9 min left and the other team not.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I faded the Nets tonight as I felt they would be exhaling a bit and maybe go through the motions knowing that the play-in is in their future. I’ll be looking to continue this as they will be extremely overvalued and undermotivated as big chalk next week. So here is my preliminary Brooklyn Nets game plan over their final 4 games.

Tues, 4/5 HOUSTON - The Rockets will come in alert knowing they are going up against KD/Kyrie so I’ll be looking to take the Rockets +16 while looking at the Rockets Team Total Over 113 and Jalen Green Points Prop going Over (assuming a reasonable 23-24). The Nets can dig in and get stops when they want like tonight when they held the Hawks scoreless for over 5 minute……but this one should be a layup line on enough Rocket possessions to get them to their numbers.

Wed, 4/6 @NY Knicks - I’ll be looking for this Overnight number to be posted prior to Rockets game as well as following. Maxing my Overnights on Knicks as this should be a load management game for Durant. I’ll play more Knicks in the morning then when/if announced I’ll buy back 100% on the overcorrection for an 8-9 point middle. If for some reason they do play I’ll keep my ticket at the Knicks number.

Fri, 4/8 @Toronto - No Kyrie in Canada and what is KD’s motivation going to be in this one unless they try to get him 100 (It’s so doable I want to see them try). Why would any of the Nets be motivated here? Looking to lay a fairly small number with the Raptors, maybe -4 or so.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

What a game! Can’t believe coach K lost after being in a tie game with his team in the bonus with 9 min left and the other team not.

My friend/mentor Alan, arguably the greatest CBB handicapper ever, has told me for years that Coach K was one of the worst in-game coaches in the game. He’s adamant about this too….for what that’s worth.

 

[BigSoxFan]

So…do we get hung over Tatum in early game or pissed off 50 point Tatum?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

So…do we get hung over Tatum in early game or pissed off 50 point Tatum?

The final week of the season you really can’t handicap using the same data as you have previously. You’ll have motivational edges, load management, teams playing younger players who may or may not be an upgrade based on their ability. In short, it’s a cluster.

What would motivate the Celtics today……

Playing for the Atlantic title and/or seeding?
Putting on a good performance for their fans in the final home game of the season?

How about the Wizards…….

Winners of 4 out of their last 5 including a drubbing of the Mavs last time out.
Porzingis and Caldwell-Pope are flat out balling while playing as well if not better than each has even played in this league.


* I made this number -10.5 and it’s 13/13.5 currently. To me, laying that many against an engaged Wizards team is dangerous. Extra variance being a Sunday early start so I played the Wizards small/tiny where I could get +13.5

 

[ElUno20]

Are we all hopping on unc +4 today?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Are we all hopping on unc +4 today?

Not here. I played (I’ll include unit size)……

* Kansas 1H -2.5 (quick starting team vs slow starting team) 1U

* Under 152 1.5U

* Christian Braun First Basket +900 (using quick starting team angle) .15U

* Kansas/UNC Double Result (1H/FT) +650 (UNC wins have been come from behind so love price here) .15

Edit: In-game strategy, per usual, is to look for regression spots. If both teams get off to slow starts I’ll be looking to grab some Over once it get around 140 or so. I’ll be watching the UNC bigs if they are injured/foul trouble in a close game I’ll be looking for some Kansas live.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

NCAA Add. Bacot prop just showed up and I Quickley grabbed……

* Bacot Under 14.5 Pts for .5U (would have played more but low caps on these props.

 

[ElUno20]

Took unc 1h ML and it's looking awesome right now

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I faded the Nets tonight as I felt they would be exhaling a bit and maybe go through the motions knowing that the play-in is in their future. I’ll be looking to continue this as they will be extremely overvalued and undermotivated as big chalk next week. So here is my preliminary Brooklyn Nets game plan over their final 4 games.

Tues, 4/5 HOUSTON - The Rockets will come in alert knowing they are going up against KD/Kyrie so I’ll be looking to take the Rockets +16 while looking at the Rockets Team Total Over 113 and Jalen Green Points Prop going Over (assuming a reasonable 23-24). The Nets can dig in and get stops when they want like tonight when they held the Hawks scoreless for over 5 minute……but this one should be a layup line on enough Rocket possessions to get them to their numbers.

Wed, 4/6 @NY Knicks - I’ll be looking for this Overnight number to be posted prior to Rockets game as well as following. Maxing my Overnights on Knicks as this should be a load management game for Durant. I’ll play more Knicks in the morning then when/if announced I’ll buy back 100% on the overcorrection for an 8-9 point middle. If for some reason they do play I’ll keep my ticket at the Knicks number.

Fri, 4/8 @Toronto - No Kyrie in Canada and what is KD’s motivation going to be in this one unless they try to get him 100 (It’s so doable I want to see them try). Why would any of the Nets be motivated here? Looking to lay a fairly small number with the Raptors, maybe -4 or so.

Reminder if anyone is following these. Won the primary play with Houston +17 last night and split the props, losing the TT but Jalen continues to get buckets to win his points prop.

Played Knicks early morning at +6 and line has been hovering around 4.5-5 all day. No word on load management yet but will be fine with my Knicks play regardless.

Other stuff I like…..Clippers -2.5, Over 234.5 Hawks/Wiz, Celtics -7

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Playoff Time is upon us! Let’s remember how differently the game is played as each series moves along and how the market gets moved. If you like Unders, as I do in both games on Tuesday and at least one on Wednesday you want to play them tonight before the numbers are bet down as they typically are when it’s a sharp Under.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Got in early on a bunch. Here are my bests that I really like a ton…..

* Under 229 Cavs Nets

Cavs among slowest Pace in league and the Nets defense has shown to be hot and cold based on the urgency of the game. Hearing people call their defense atrocious which is a lazy assessment imo. Couple this will more of a reliance on Durant iso’s in the playoffs that will further reduce possessions.


* Clippers +2.5

The return of George isn’t being factored into this number enough imo. Aside from that you have a confident veteran team with aspirations and a motivated one with George against a young team. I got bad number as +3 is now the market.


* Under 238 Hornets/Hawks

I got some small overnight at 239 and it’s down to 236.5 now. This game hits 240 somewhere around 40-42% of the time imo. Still like it at current number but obv not as much as the 239.


Waiting for my sites to post series numbers and some I am waiting on are….

- Milwaukee -2.5 games
- Toronto ML (would love to find an adj -2.5 games at +900 or so)
- Denver +1.5 games

 

[ElUno20]

I'd add Paul George over 2.5 steals. He's been everywhere since coming back. Incredibly active on defense and i can see Russell, Ant, and especially Bev trying to force things a bit from the perimeter.

 

[ElUno20]

Wolves moved up to 3

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Waiting for my sites to post series numbers and some I am waiting on are….

- Milwaukee -2.5 games
- Toronto ML (would love to find an adj -2.5 games at +900 or so)
- Denver +1.5 games

* Decided to pass on Nuggets pre-series.

* I played Milwaukee -2.5 at +100, +125 and +145. It’s now -160 last time I checked. Also played the 4-0 sweep at +265.

* Passed on the awful Raptors pre-series number as I was hoping to get +230 or so (it’s like +160). Instead I may play them small G1 and if they lose jump on them at around +275 to +310. I also played a prop of “Philly wins G1 and Loses series” at +450. Ridiculous price but tiny limits on these.

* Tonight’s second game I played some Under and of course Clippers. Also a correlated prop that is mispriced. “George scores 30+ and Clippers Win” that is paying +425.

 

[Senator Donut]

There were some crazy opening lines for Celtics-Nets series odds. For example, at one point you could get the Celtics +115 odds at Caesars (operating in 13 states) and Nets +130 at SuperBook (4 states).

EDIT: I’m not a sharp, so I couldn’t tell you what the limits were (and thus how profitable this wager was), but I saw these lines on Twitter from official sports book accounts.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

There were some crazy opening lines for Celtics-Nets series odds. For example, at one point you could get the Celtics +115 odds at Caesars (operating in 13 states) and Nets +130 at SuperBook (4 states).

The Nets have been so overvalued it’s silly except for tonight. I was hoping to get a 12 or 13 number but not even close and I could never play the Cavs to get inside of 8 bc how they did it was about the only chance they had. Great price on the Celtics in this upcoming series. I’ll be hoping on once my outs post them.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Playoff Time is upon us! Let’s remember how differently the game is played as each series moves along and how the market gets moved. If you like Unders, as I do in both games on Tuesday and at least one on Wednesday you want to play them tonight before the numbers are bet down as they typically are when it’s a sharp Under.

If you blindly played all 4 play-in games Under in the 1Q, 1H and Full Game you’d have gone 12-0 on Tues/Wed……with virtually zero sweat if played early. I’m not saying I did exactly this on my own but it’s been a pretty epic week so far bc of these mispriced numbers.

I don’t see any reason not to ride both Unders tonight as well. In addition I’d look at Cleveland and the LA Clippers as these play-in home courts have shown to be of significant impact.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Friendly reminder. Can’t stress enough. Look ahead and pull trigger quickly on plays that you like. (Another) Ex: Dallas/Utah Total was 214.5 until Doncic was “officially” ruled out of G1 which anyone paying attention to his calf injury could recognize was likely if not certain. It’s now 209.5 and still imo good value to the Under in what should be a 1pm slugfest tomorrow.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Can get Durant/Tatum to both score 30+ for +220. Someone tell me why I shouldn’t do this.

 

[bellowthecat]

A 3:30 start time generally keeps me from betting on a game in any way since that's supposed to be nap time. Everyone gets fussy when they miss nap time.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Don’t know if it’s too late but when numbers came back up following the George news the Total opened at 214/214.5 (down from 216) which is being mispriced. They actually should be gone UP and not down as George does two things for totals……one, he’s an elite defender and two, he initiates a crawl pace in the half court set. I got out of my 216 Unders and grabbed some middle opportunity for the price of juice. Most importantly I just wanted out of the Under without George.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

1H Unders 6-0
Full Game Unders 6-0

This was the first game that had pace numbers projecting to Over…..but both teams combined to shoot 15-58 from three.

Let’s get that #7 tomorrow at 1pm boys!!

 

[Cellar-Door]

LOL
View: https://twitter.com/BetMGM/status/1515194488825827329


The Celtics have the 3rd best odds, the Nets 4th, Bucks 3rd. That is wild when only 1 of them can even get to the conference finals

 

[HomeRunBaker]

LOL
View: https://twitter.com/BetMGM/status/1515194488825827329


The Celtics have the 3rd best odds, the Nets 4th, Bucks 3rd. That is wild when only 1 of them can even get to the conference finals

Yeah this is due to the Suns being such overwhelming favorites to come out of the West.

I think the play on Sunday is to fade both winners tonight in G1 on short rest. I already got me a bunch of Miami -5.5 with the brutal 1pm turnaround for the Hawks. At least the Pelicans get day to recover before the night game……but then they have to deal with Phoenix. I’m going to be looking at the Winning Margin numbers in Miami too 17-20 & Over 21. If the Heat go on a 3Q run to get a lead into the teens we should see Atlanta concede defensively and the next time you look up it’s a 25-pt game.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

1H Unders 6-0
Full Game Unders 6-0

This was the first game that had pace numbers projecting to Over…..but both teams combined to shoot 15-58 from three.

Let’s get that #7 tomorrow at 1pm boys!!

Totally overexposed on the Jazz/Mavs Under along with Miami. Epic week will still be a monster week if they should go down……but I see 2-0 here maybe it’s just me. Going for the kill. Max all the locals and fire more offshore. LFG!!!

 

[ElUno20]

On it hrb. If you have spitball picks too (not official plays), like props, specials, etc. Share. It's a long weekend and my Clipps added their 350th year on disappointment on my life, i need distractions

 

[HomeRunBaker]

On it hrb. If you have spitball picks too (not official plays), like props, specials, etc. Share. It's a long weekend and my Clipps added their 350th year on disappointment on my life, i need distractions

I’ve got some awesome UFC stuff for later
I haven’t looked but I’ll dig into some props. I’m guessing the market isn’t properly adjusted using reduced minutes your bench will be receiving if the Totals this week are any indication.

Officials swallowing their whistles early which is crucial in avoiding the end of quarter FT parade. Great start all around.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Played 2H Under 116 in Memphis/Minny.

Pace slowing considerably and will continue to do so. Don’t catch fire from 3 and we cash. @ElUno20

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Did some digging and found my best prop in the later games.

* Nah’Shon Hyland Under 11.5 points.

Rookie in his first playoff game, first road playoff game and will have quicker hook in tight game and/or he struggles early. @ElUno20

 

[Marceline]

I bet under 209 last night on the Dallas game, then forgot I bet it and bet it again this morning at 208. Every once in awhile a failing memory pays off.

 

[ElUno20]

Did some digging and found my best prop in the later games.

* Nah’Shon Hyland Under 11.5 points.

Rookie in his first playoff game, first road playoff game and will have quicker hook in tight game and/or he struggles early. @ElUno20

Played. Thank You.