I mentioned somewhere, here or in other thread, that the extra Jimmy touches in the playoffs have come at the expense of Bam who is not a very good shot creator/scorer. Bam is def a scoring fade this series.I wonder what the correction will be but you could have made some serious money betting under on all Bam Adebayo related props (specifically points). I’ll be paying attention to that for Game 3. Celtics match up very well with him, he looks a bit physically compromised, and I am not sure the Heat will commit to manufacturing touches for him when there’s not a ton of benefit there.
Love posts like these!!Props to you guys in this thread. I've been printing because of your valuable insight.
Yes, Butler had the quietest 29 points you’ll ever see last night. He got some bunnies on loose balls, garbage buckets, etc. I’d be looking at some Jimmy Unders in these next two games on the road bc his points is going to really be inflated.I took his under in games 1 and 2. I suspect his number will come down a lot, towards 10, so I don't have as much interest at that level.
I'd think the Celtics will try to focus on taking away Butler. They largely did outside of 6 minutes to start the 3rd when he got about 15 points.
26.5 on DK. Can get Bam under 13.5 for +100. May need to jump on that.Yes, Butler had the quietest 29 points you’ll ever see last night. He got some bunnies on loose balls, garbage buckets, etc. I’d be looking at some Jimmy Unders in these next two games on the road bc his points is going to really be inflated.
I played Dallas +6 for normal size as well as the Over 214. I’m really looking forward to a big play on Dallas in G3 or G4, depending on the lead up (ex: Warriors win would likely lead to a a big Mavs play in G3).We betting Luka tonight?
I’m confused. What does loaded up on both sides mean? Are you trying to arb like 10% by betting each at + levels?I'm seeing +260 now on Heat to win the series. If I wasn't already loaded up on both sides of this I'd probably have to add some more on the Heat here.
I think Boston wins it but +260 is a crazy price for the #1 seed in a 1-1 series.
Edit: also something to look out for in GS/Dal is GS winning 3rd quarters. Forgot to come here and post last night but it has been a very profitable trend.
That was how I read it. If you put $100 on Celtics at like +150 after Game 1 and then another $100 at Heat +260 now.I’m confused. What does loaded up on both sides mean? Are you trying to arb like 10% by betting each at + levels?
Right, but he said he was already maxed out before we got to this point. So I was curious how much he was capturing vs the 40% odds on the Celtics winning the series after game 1That was how I read it. If you put $100 on Celtics at like +150 after Game 1 and then another $100 at Heat +260 now.
If Celtics win, you’re up $50. If Heat win, you’re up $160.
I had max bet at one book Heat +150 before the series started, then max at a different book Celtics +120 after game 1.Right, but he said he was already maxed out before we got to this point. So I was curious how much he was capturing vs the 40% odds on the Celtics winning the series after game 1
I didn’t even know there were max bets on series lines. I’m pretty sure DraftKings doesn’t have one, but perhaps you’re going a different route. Obviously good if you can guarantee yourself a payout, but it seems like this book you’re giving up some opportunity cost.I had max bet at one book Heat +150 before the series started, then max at a different book Celtics +120 after game 1.
I also tried getting on Celtics -1.5 when they were down 1-0 but it was at one of the same books where I already had maxed on series bets.
I am in MA where it's still not legal so I can only use offshore books.I didn’t even know there were max bets on series lines. Obviously good if you can guarantee yourself a payout, but it seems like this book you’re giving up some opportunity cost.
Yes I think it's still too low.So I am seeing an over/under of 207.5..
Isn’t that too low? Like hammer the over low? Heat/Celtics have played 7 times this year and they’ve scored over 208 5 of the 7 times.
When I say “max” I’m referring to the limits that my locals put on my Pay Per Head account/site per game. I’m in FL where legalization is being battled in the courts between the state and Seminole Indians on one side vs local parimutuel wagering facilities such as horse stats and former dog tracks. I use locals and some BetOnline and Bookmaker.com.I didn’t even know there were max bets on series lines. I’m pretty sure DraftKings doesn’t have one, but perhaps you’re going a different route. Obviously good if you can guarantee yourself a payout, but it seems like this book you’re giving up some opportunity cost.
I’m not touching the Total. I expect pace to begin slowing in the Boston games. I am playing some Butler Unders shortly.So I am seeing an over/under of 207.5..
Isn’t that too low? Like hammer the over low? Heat/Celtics have played 7 times this year and they’ve scored over 208 5 of the 7 times.
As soon as Ime ditches 2BIGZ against Miami we’ll be ok. He’s digging outselves a hole each game with this.Just grabbed some -2 here.
That dumbass marcus smart technical might kill youPlayed Celtics +7.5 on the Butler news. Hit it almost everywhere.
If it doesn’t this flagrant about to be called surely will.That dumbass marcus smart technical might kill you
Ughhh. I feel a bullshit boston 3 for you. Hold out hopeIf it doesn’t this flagrant about to be called surely will.
Miss one and run the clock out please?If it doesn’t this flagrant about to be called surely will.
If you want to bet this I'd take the 1st half line.Need to drown my sorrows in some betting today. Dallas rebound tonight? Line seems somewhat juicy given they’re at home and should be running through walls to keep their season alive.
What @Joe Sixpack said.Need to drown my sorrows in some betting today. Dallas rebound tonight? Line seems somewhat juicy given they’re at home and should be running through walls to keep their season alive.
Yes and the +500 double result was golden too. It’s a make or miss league. Dallas had all the wide open 3’s they could handle in the 1H and most rattled out. Not much you can do from there.Quite the meltdown on the Q1 bet, Dallas. Blah. Up 9 with 4 mins to go. And Bullock misses a 3 in final seconds of the half. Dallas looks ready to go down.
It’s also a “Golden State is a much better team than Dallas” league.Yes and the +500 double result was golden too. It’s a make or miss league. Dallas had all the wide open 3’s they could handle in the 1H and most rattled out. Not much you can do from there.
Haven’t paid too close attention to this thread, but for your sake, I hope you hedged after the beatdown in Game One?Played Dallas +5 in Game 1 and I have them in Series as well. I’m trying to think of a non-injury scenario where I’m not playing Dallas every game in this series. I feel they are the better team and won’t be priced as such in any game. So if I don’t post it just assume I’m playing Dallas each game.
Even the GOATs miss some open threes.Haven’t paid too close attention to this thread, but for your sake, I hope you hedged after the beatdown in Game One?
Bringing this here from another thread. I expect the Celtics to win tonight but I don’t see a reason to pay money for the right to be required for us to win by 7+ to cash.Spotting the Heat a 1Q lead bc you feel that you must start 2BIGZ against a team that presents a matchup problem against 2BIGZ has been an underrated issue for Ime this series.
Hey my handicap had the Mavs getting open threes all series but I’d never call Reggie “0-10” Bullock the GOAT.Even the GOATs miss some open threes.
I’ll be betting on Tatum and Brown point parlays. They should have very high volume.Are there any bets that anyone has seen for tonight that they love?
It’s kind of tough to fall in love with anything with how the injury report is and potentially in flux the lineups could be..
however, I am seeing Bam at a 16.5 over/under for points. The only time this playoffs he’s been over that number 2 games in a row was against the Embiid-less Sixers…I’m pretty tempted to smash the under here even if TL is out
That’s fair — normally I’d save the euphoric trashtalk for the game thread, but it seemed relevant here, since it was here where it was written “Dallas is the better team.” Fading the Warriors as the betting favorites is one thing — my sense is that’s generally good betting practice, since due to proximity to Vega$ and general glamour, the Warriors typically get more love from bettors than cold statistical analysis would indicate they shouldEven the GOATs miss some open threes.
Seems weird to come into this thread (especially when adding you haven’t been following it), defending your team when you’re euphoric, when people are sharing their views to help others and willingly sharing specific views that will frequently be wrong - particularly when they are betting underdogs. As opposed to other threads, where people mainly type to hear themselves speak, which it seems like you’ve carried over to this thread.
Bam scored 15 second half points while Butler was out injured. All indication are that Butler will play, but if he’s limited, Bam gets far more usage with Butler on the bench.Are there any bets that anyone has seen for tonight that they love?
It’s kind of tough to fall in love with anything with how the injury report is and potentially in flux the lineups could be..
however, I am seeing Bam at a 16.5 over/under for points. The only time this playoffs he’s been over that number 2 games in a row was against the Embiid-less Sixers…I’m pretty tempted to smash the under here even if TL is out
Bam’s touches and scoring opportunities are closely related to Butler’s availability opposed to TL. If Butler is out you can probably get value on the Over but it will likely be adjusted for this. The best chance would be if Butler goes but comes out again but of course we won’t know this pregame. Personally I would never play Bam Under here bc there is a good chance he will be one of the Heat’s top two scoring options tonight but we won’t know (due to Butlers uncertainty to finish game).Are there any bets that anyone has seen for tonight that they love?
It’s kind of tough to fall in love with anything with how the injury report is and potentially in flux the lineups could be..
however, I am seeing Bam at a 16.5 over/under for points. The only time this playoffs he’s been over that number 2 games in a row was against the Embiid-less Sixers…I’m pretty tempted to smash the under here even if TL is out
Great point and thank you for the reply.Bam scored 15 second half points while Butler was out injured. All indication are that Butler will play, but if he’s limited, Bam gets far more usage with Butler on the bench.
Big difference with Time Lord vs Theis though. I am gonna stay away from that bet tonight but will probably be live betting Celtics if Miami does take an early lead.Took Heat first to 10 assuming the two big lineup and no Smart allows the Heat to come out quick as they have been.
Their should be an automatic payout booster when a team misses the line by 30 points.* Under 99.5 Miami Team Total
That’s is so far. Too many uncertainties at this point but Boston should come out defending like their season depends on it……because it does. Tonight is essentially the season on the line. I may add some other stuff such as 1H Under Miami but that’s the jist of my pregame action.
Will be on lookout to get Boston at better price early but low low low is the way to go here. I may even look at those adjusted totals to see how good a price I can get on Under 195.5 or even lower.