#DFG: Canceling the Noise

[Jnai]

Assuming the reports are true, the only open question I have is about the ball temperature at the time of testing. It wasn't freezing, but it was cold enough that balls barely legal at room temperature prior to the game would test differently than balls at air temp midway through the game.

Also, this is perhaps the dumbest controversy / scandal that the team could possibly have generated. If this was intentional, holy shit how dumb.

 

[Ed Hillel]

It is not. Given the performance of officials, it is plausible the ref blew the weigh in.

I am not buying "weather conditions" however. If Mort's report is credited, the 11 balls were under inflated by 16%.

Edit. And this provides a compelling reason to check the Colts' balls too. If they were improperly inflated before or after, this gets muddled. If they were properly inflated, before and after, the atmospheric conditions defense goes right out the window.

They do practice with these balls during the week, though, right? It was freezing the day before; is it possible they deflated then, and the refs didn't properly check pregame?

If this was done intentionally, though, it's embarrassing and Belichick probably takes a huge suspension and retires instead. What a sad way to go. The big question left for us to know is if the balls were measured by PSI pre-game. If so, it's going to be ugly.

 

[j44thor]

As a long time Pats fan, like many of us, I want to know what really happened.  The league has to find out whether it was done intentionally or not, because if it was, this is a total embarrassment.  If they did cheat, it was TOTALLY not needed and a further tarnishes Bill's reputation.   I would think Kraft would want a comprehensive investigation, I know I do.

 
This a thousand times. If anything was going to beat NE it was going to be Luck both literally and figuratively.  That they would feel the need to push the limits on offense is just plain stupid.  I find it hard to believe that 11 out of 12 was a coincidence or anything to do with the elements/game play etc.  This is not a good look.

 

[pedro1918]

Brady's "They should read the rule book" line after the Ravens game doesn't look so great either.

 

[moondog80]

Assuming the reports are true, the only open question I have is about the ball temperature at the time of testing. It wasn't freezing, but it was cold enough that balls barely legal at room temperature prior to the game would test differently than balls at air temp midway through the game.

Someone smarter than me can weigh in, but they were off by 2 PSI, which seems like a lot to attribute to the weather, especially when it wasn't that cold out.

 

[dcmissle]

It's one thing to submit deliberately under or over inflated balls. Rodgers has admitted to it, and most teams probably do it.

It is entirely another to mess with the balls after the official has approved them. At that point you are subverting a rule that goes to game integrity, and there is really no defense that the subversion had no pact on this game. That just makes the subversion mystifying, enraging and sad.

We are on to what I termed Door C.

 

[Marbleheader]

Sbostn Which is why I think it is unlikely that they did anything.

 

[Boston Brawler]

 
One of the balls was the ball Brady threw for an interception to end the 1st half and another was the ball they took out of play to start the 2nd half.  Can we stop making up excuses already?

If trying to think of a way this could happen naturally is "making up excuses", then so be it.  It's no worse than people falling into the narrative that we cheated because Bill is the coach of this team and making assumptions that this was nefarious.
 
If the evidence proves it was nefarious, I'm with you 100% that we deserve whatever comes of this, and it was stupid to employ in the first place.

 

[m0ckduck]

Someone smarter than me can weigh in, but they were off by 2 PSI, which seems like a lot to attribute to the weather, especially when it wasn't that cold out.

 
Take this with a giant 'FWIW' sign, but there's some amteur-hour discussion of the physics here: http://deadspin.com/is-this-taking-into-account-temperature-differences-be-1680821764

 

[lexrageorge]

It's one thing to submit deliberately under or over inflated balls. Rodgers has admitted to it, and most teams probably do it.

It is entirely another to mess with the balls after the official has approved them. At that point you are subverting a rule that goes to game integrity, and there is really no defense that the subversion had no pact on this game. That just makes the subversion mystifying, enraging and sad.

We are on to what I termed Door C.

Where's the proof of your last sentence?  Even Mort's report states that it's not clear how the balls got to be underinflated.  
 
Honestly, everyone is jumping to a conclusion that is still the least plausible scenario of all. 

 

[Fred in Lynn]

Regardless of what the outcome will be, it's confusing why in 2015 the NFL requires teams to provide balls. Maybe, simply as a QC and custody measure, it would be more efficient to have the League provide pressure certification of the balls and not allow teams to be alone with their balls, for everyone's benefit.

 

[dcmissle]

How do we know, though? It's weird how many folks are suddenly knowledgeable about a topic no one knew about two days ago. How much weight does a football typically lose during the course of a game? That's why we need more context here

That's why you test the balls submitted by the Colts.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Meh.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

If they deflated the balls after inspection then they're fucking morons and deserve penalties on that basis alone.

 

[Devizier]

How do we know, though? It's weird how many folks are suddenly knowledgeable about a topic no one knew about two days ago. How much weight does a football typically lose during the course of a game? That's why we need more context here

 
Gay-Lussac's law, which states that pressure increases as a function of temperature.
 
It's one of the laws incorporated in the ideal gas law, which states: pressure * volume = moles (a fixed number of molecules) * universal gas constant * temperature.

 

[j44thor]

 
This.  It's the public perception, and this is where Spygate really comes back to bite them.  
 
We *KNOW* that other teams do it - as Aaron Rodgers' comments demonstrate.  But it's the Patriots who will feel the wrath of Goodell for this.
 
Fine the Patriots $100,000 (the league's rulebook says minimum of $25k so quadruple it) and take away a 6th round draft pick.
 
Anything more than that over this is absolutely insane.  

 
Rodgers admitted to doing it pre-game where he gets caught and has the ball deflated by refs, though not 100% of the time.
The key here is this is done pre-check.  If the balls were considered to be compliant during the check and then came back underinflated after the game there is a problem.  Our only hope quite frankly is that the refs didn't do their job at all pre-game.

 

[lexrageorge]

Nm.

 

[Devizier]

And, in this case, the temperature change from the locker room to the field was not very much.  Keep in mind that the temperature in that equation is degrees Kelvin.  So you can pretty much rule out temperature differences as being the cause of underinflation.  

 
Yep; that was the context of my post.

 

[Luis Taint]

I highly doubt the ballboy was in on anything, so I guess the question becomes where do the balls go after they are tested 2 hours before the game? If the balls weren't tested properly, I put it on the refs, because I have no idea how often teams submit balls within regulation or if they even care since they figure it's the refs job. The key for me is was someone instructed to deflate the balls after they were checked.

That's my question, if the Patriots are at fault, aren't the refs just as culpable.

 

[twibnotes]

Two days ago this was a ridiculous joke, and now there are calls for Belichick to be fired.

In fairness, the notion that it was a joke was based on the premise that BB was way too smart to do something that could get the team in hot water even if it yielded a negligible advantage. If that premise turns out to be false, that's a pretty disappointing revelation.

 

[TheoShmeo]

The lectures on homerism are ridiculous.  Of course people are going to be worked up and emotional.  The stakes are incredibly high.  At best, a Pats SB win will carry with it the same BS that accompanies the prior wins.  We'll be hearing about how they had to cheat to get to a title.  However you view that charge, hearing about it just sucks.  And at worst, take your pick among this being a distraction that makes a tall task even taller, BB being banned from the game (and perhaps beyond) and the ultimate doomsday of the Pats being disqualified..
 
For fans who have been pining hard for a SB win post-SpyGate and one more to top off Brady and BB's incredible run, this is a massive kick to the balls.  As a result, people are going to be emotional and may react with bias.  Shocking.  
 
From my perspective, that the balls were under inflated to that degree is damning and concerning, but that's really only one fact.  Unless and until the NFL can connect the dots more to the Pats, I think it will be hard to impose serious fines or penalties. 
 
As a side point, is this affecting fans who might be planning to go?  I have been thinking about going to Glendale and would not have ventured onto the secondary market until next week in any event given the usual decline in prices in week two.  But now buying tix carries a greater element of risk.  And I have to admit that the cloud around this issue makes me a little less pumped to be on site.  Even if the NFL rules decisively and quickly, DeflateGate is still going to be in the air on some level in Glendale.
 
PS: I was in Glendale for the last SB.  There was a perceptible pall among many Pats fans before the game due to the SpyGate stuff.  It created a sense of foreboding and at best, distraction, that was real and not just in my admittedly addled Patriots mind.  That this game is also in Glendale is a little sickening under the circumstances.  Sure, the turnabout would be awesome...but for now, puke.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

https://twitter.com/dallen83/status/557793603700154369

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I highly doubt the ballboy was in on anything, so I guess the question becomes where do the balls go after they are tested 2 hours before the game? If the balls weren't tested properly, I put it on the refs, because I have no idea how often teams submit balls within regulation or if they even care since they figure it's the refs job. The key for me is was someone instructed to deflate the balls after they were checked.

Of course the ball boy was. As was the equipment manager. Remember the ball boy has one main job and that's to look after the balls. Belichick probably had a set it and forget it mentality since this is probably a common thing around the league. You'll have a hard time convincing me that if Manning and Dungy did this and were "busted" the public outcry wouldn't tilt the needle in the other direction.

Belichick is looked at as an ass in the media and by other fan bases. Hard to be sympathetic if someone already has an unwavering perception of you.

 

[PeaceSignMoose]

https://twitter.com/dallen83/status/557793603700154369

 
He's right, of course, but man talk about taking the high road.  Good on him.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Rodgers admitted to doing it pre-game where he gets caught and has the ball deflated by refs, though not 100% of the time.
The key here is this is done pre-check.  If the balls were considered to be compliant during the check and then came back underinflated after the game there is a problem.  Our only hope quite frankly is that the refs didn't do their job at all pre-game.

 
I agree, and it does make things worse, but the *intention* is the same.  To manipulate things such that your QB gets to use a ball he prefers, even if it falls outside the regulations.
 
I have to believe - and maybe I'm being naive here - that here's what happened……. 
 
The Patriots know, as does every other team in the league, that the refs don't really do a thorough job testing each ball with a gauge before the game.  Nor do they pay much attention to them from that point on.  They probably give a couple of balls from each batch a cursory feel (geez, it's hard to talk about this subject without imagining Beavis and Butthead doing the commentary on this), and go, yeah, ok, that's fine. Hardly scientific.  Hardly exact.  
 
Why would they do it this way?  Because nobody freaking cares.  The league deliberately allows each team to provide their own balls, and, as the NYT article on Eli Manning shows (see:  http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/24/sports/football/eli-mannings-footballs-are-months-in-making.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&), teams go through a LOT to get the balls just like their own QB prefers.  
 
So every team knows that the other team will use balls to their personal QB's liking, and nobody gives a crap if the ball is exactly within the confines of the rules because, as Rodgers' comments show, other teams do try to submit improperly inflated balls that meet their QB's preference.  And even the refs know this and so NOBODY GIVES A FLYING F*** whether the balls are exact or not.
 
So Walt Anderson does his cursory feel and says, whatever, they feel fine to me, let's play.  
 
The game starts.  The Colts are losing.  Jackson gets his INT and hands the ball to a Colts' coach.  Hmmm…this ball seems…suspiciously deflated.  Alerts the refs.  At halftime, down 17-7 they test the ball.  Goodness, it IS deflated.  So the ref makes sure the rest of the balls are inflated to meet the regulations.  Brady spends the second half throwing perfectly good regulation footballs and leads the team on four straight touchdown drives.
 
I'm 100% sure that if this story were what happened, nobody would care, including the refs.  It's just that the Colts decided to make it an issue, and THAT is why this has become what it is.  Kind of like spy gate, where we know from comments made by Jimmy Johnson and Bill Cowher that what BB did was pretty standard operating procedure actually, but where it took on a life of its own, aided by Tomase's since-recanted story about taping the Rams' SB walkthrough.
 
If this is how this went down, then the Patriots should be fined a minimal amount for handing in under inflated balls.  
 
However, if the refs DID actually test them for real, and somehow the Patriots got hold of them and under inflated them after that, then yes, it becomes a bigger deal.  I find this to be almost incomprehensible though.  But I could be wrong.  We shall see.

 

[dcmissle]

If they deflated the balls after inspection then they're fucking morons and deserve penalties on that basis alone.

Yes.

"As usual, if you or any members of your IM force are caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions."

That's the way this will be played in the press if there was any post-inspection screwing with the footballs.

 

[naclone]

can we all agree that according to both the Peter King piece and Rodger's statements that providing gameballs that are off-spec is fairly commonplace and not material because part of the refs'inspection procedure is to add/remove air as needed? if so, how the balls were provided is not an issue worth discussing further.

i find it hard to believe in a chamionship game the refs just blew off the inspection protocol. so i would suggest any theories claiming they approved them by feel to be a stretch and not worth discussing.

what we are talking about is how did the air get out after inspection when the ball boys/refs were in control of the balls.

im not sure there are many plausible explanations that dont look bad for the pats.

 

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

 

If the officials didn't properly check the balls before the start of the game, I could see the NFL saying something like "there is no conclusive evidence..."

If the league can't explain/demonstrate conclusively how or why the balls were under-inflated, how can the league not try to let all this fall by the wayside for the simple reason that it just makes the officials look really bad:  either they pooched the pre-game inspection, or their heads were so in the clouds they didnt even notice how under-inflated the balls were thru an entire 30 minutes of a championship game.

 

[pappymojo]

11 out of 12 is proof this happened. Strong proof. There doesn't need to be video. The Pats are getting smacked down for this. And hard. As they should be.

No. It is not proof of anything.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Of course the ball boy was. As was the equipment manager. Remember the ball boy has one main job and that's to look after the balls. Belichick probably had a set it and forget it mentality since this is probably a common thing around the league. You'll have a hard time convincing me that if Manning and Dungy did this and were "busted" the public outcry wouldn't tilt the needle in the other direction.

Belichick is looked at as an ass in the media and by other fan bases. Hard to be sympathetic if someone already has an unwavering perception of you.

I know what the ballboy does, I just don't think he was deflating the football on the sidelines during the game. I think the two most logical explanations are either that the refs fucked up pregame or the balls were tampered with after the weighing and before the game. As I was saying before, the Pats were practicing in freezing cold weather the day before, so they could have deflated then. Then you just hand the balls to the refs pregame and let them deal with it.

 

[lexrageorge]

can we all agree that according to both the Peter King piece and Rodger's statements that providing gameballs that are off-spec is fairly commonplace and not material because part of the refs'inspection procedure is to add/remove air as needed? if so, how the balls were provided is not an issue worth discussing further.

i find it hard to believe in a chamionship game the refs just blew off the inspection protocol. so i would suggest any theories claiming they approved them by feel to be a stretch and not worth discussing.

what we are talking about is how did the air get out after inspection when the ball boys/refs were in control of the balls.

im not sure there are many plausible explanations that dont look bad for the pats.

Rodgers admitted that sometimes the refs let the overinflated balls go through.  Peter King's story is a single anecdote on one game of an inspection by one crew, and is not proof of anything.   
 
As hard as it may be to believe the refs didn't inspect the balls, it's even harder to believe that somehow the Pats bribed the NFL employee in charge of the balls to stick a needle and let some air out after the fact.  

 

[Al Zarilla]

12.5 to 13.5 psi.  
 
There are rumors that at least one of the balls was found to be around 10.5psi.  Nothing has been confirmed yet, although everyone is jumping to conclusions anyway. 

Yes, I was going to go back to bed but decided to look that up, 12.5 to 13.5 PSI. Too bad about any being around 10.5. If they were, say, 12.5 to begin with, the temperature difference could have taken them down to about 12.146. Out of range but they could say attributable to temperature. 10.5, no. Shit. 

 

[Shelterdog]

It the Refs tested the balls and they were legal (or, alternatively, if the refs claim they tested the balls and people believe them even if they didn't actually test them) then the Pats are FUCKED. The assumption will be that the Pats tampered with game equipment.  I'm thinking a harsher punishment than spygate because he's viewed as a recidivist.  Loss of a high draft pick, loss of Belichick for a big chunk of the season--possibly even a superbowl suspension  With this plus spygate plus all the shit about Goodell not being tough enough this is a perfect chance for Goodell to make a big stand.

 

[SumnerH]

Why does there need to be a comparison to the Colts balls?

Let me break this down for you. 11 out of 12 under inflated balls is like the Ray Rice video. The league doesn't need more to act swiftly and harshly.

You don't _need_ it, but it would be very useful.  Because if it turns out that normal loss over time, plus loss from game play (players landing on the ball, spiking, etc) plus the temperature differential, plus the loss of air from needle testing at least 3 times, plus a lapse between the game time and testing would naturally result in 2 PSI of difference, then you'd expect to see that in the Colts' balls as well.  If theirs are within spec then the idea that it was natural forces rather than someone letting out air isn't plausible.
 
Testing the Colts' balls is an easy way to shoot that theory down quickly.  They're as close a thing as exists to a perfect control group of balls that went through the same kind of conditions and were definitely not tampered with by the Pats.

 

[JimBoSox9]

 
He's right, of course, but man talk about taking the high road.  Good on him.

 
Why would they play with soap for balls, though?  We all saw what happened when Plummer tried that in '09 to prolong his career.
 
Edit: I've been watching the NFLN a bit this morning and they couldn't be more interested in breaking down the upcoming Pats/Hawks matchup from a football perspective.  I do, however, hope TB12 is practicing with some inflated-ass balls next week.

 

[Koufax]

The report that NFL officials were distraught suggests that strong medicine is in store for the Pats.  A Superbowl suspension does not seem implausible, and Kraft is going to have to do something as well.

 

[dcmissle]

Brady's "They should read the rule book" line after the Ravens game doesn't look so great either.

Additionally, given BB's mastery of every detail that bears on the game, it will be viewed as ludicrous that he did not provide marching orders for ball inflation on a rainy night. That will be the perception.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

can we all agree that according to both the Peter King piece and Rodger's statements that providing gameballs that are off-spec is fairly commonplace and not material because part of the refs'inspection procedure is to add/remove air as needed? if so, how the balls were provided is not an issue worth discussing further.

i find it hard to believe in a chamionship game the refs just blew off the inspection protocol. so i would suggest any theories claiming they approved them by feel to be a stretch and not worth discussing.

what we are talking about is how did the air get out after inspection when the ball boys/refs were in control of the balls.

im not sure there are many plausible explanations that dont look bad for the pats.

 
We can't agree that how the balls were provided is immaterial.  The Rodgers anecdotes indicate that the refs may occasionally let "illegal" balls get through, otherwise why would the Packers or any other team bother trying to slip by under/over-inflated balls at all?

 

[theapportioner]

Unless they have smoking gun evidence of intentionally doctoring the balls (e.g. videotape, written instructions, or testimony), I doubt the league will do anything to the Pats at this point. If the mere fact that 11 out of 12 balls was underinflated at halftime is sufficient evidence for guilt, they could have punished the Pats on Monday morning.

 

[dcmissle]

The report that NFL officials were distraught suggests that strong medicine is in store for the Pats.  A Superbowl suspension does not seem implausible, and Kraft is going to have to do something as well.

I don't thin we get a SB suspension of BB unless the attendant told investigators he deflated the balls per team instructions.

 

[Corsi]

From 2013 interview with college equipment manager:
 

Y!: Ball-tampering in general, it’s sort of a behind-the-scenes thing in college football, maybe like a major league pitcher scuffing a baseball. Were you guys surprised someone got caught deflating footballs?
 
A: Not really. Being around football, it’s just common. It’s just the way it works. Everybody does it. You know you’re not supposed to do it, but nobody thinks it’s that big of a deal. I don’t think anybody looks at it as cheating.
 
Y!: When you say everybody does it, that’s obviously an assumption.
 
A: Yeah, but I have talked to a lot of coaches since the USC thing happened, and they say it happens in all the places they have coached.
 
Y!: In theory, a softer ball is easier to hold onto and can prevent less fumbling. So, in theory, you deflate it because it makes easier to throw, carry and catch. If the other team isn’t deflating their balls, it gives you an edge. That’s not cheating?
 
A: I don’t think in the amount I have seen them changed that it really makes that big of a difference. I think it’s just a comfort thing for the quarterback.
 
Y!: So in football parlance it’s not exactly like stealing defensive signals. It’s not serious.
 
A: Not in my opinion. Both teams use their own set of footballs [on game day]. Both teams can do whatever they want with them – maybe not by the definition of the rule, but in reality both teams can do what they want. If you were sharing balls with the other team, then I can see why there would be something wrong with it.
 
Y!: You view it as, these are our balls, so we can do what we want with them.
 
A: Yeah.
 
Y!: So how does it work, exactly? Take me through the process of how you would deflate a ball.
 
A: Before the game the officials ask for like, six footballs. You provide them to the officials before the game in the locker room. Then they take a Sharpie and they mark them on the white strip with whatever marks or colors they recognize as saying, you know, ‘We’ve approved these balls.’ After that, you’re not supposed to touch them at all. But between your ball boys and the ball being on the sidelines – and then at halftime, when you control all of your own balls – there is ample opportunity to adjust them.
 

 

 

[singaporesoxfan]

Assuming there's a "good" (at least, non-nefarious) explanation such as lousy equipment handling, Pats really do have to get ahead of this story. The more they keep quiet, the worse it looks.

 

[JimBoSox9]

Additionally, given BB's mastery of every detail that bears on the game, it will be viewed as ludicrous that he did not provide marching orders for ball inflation on a rainy night. That will be the perception.

 
TBH that's the opposite of my perception of how BB works.  It's trickle-up.  Pre-ref check, I'd lay odds any ball routine is Brady and the QB Coach (McD) and it's probably not worth even mentioning to the boss unless there's a problem with the check.  If there was some true off-the-page tomfoolery after the ref check, then yes I'm sure it came with Voldemort's approval, but I still consider that a massively fantastical scenario.

 

[mascho]

Brad Johnson paid "some guys off" to get all 100 footballs to his liking before he won the Super Bowl.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bucs/bucs-qb-johnson-paid-to-have-footballs-altered-before-sb-37/2214490

 

[genoasalami]

This won't linger...NFL is going to do what it can to make the focus of their signature event the game itself..I would expect a resolution soon....including any punishment ...may happen today.

 

[cornwalls@6]

The league needs to publicly address this ASAP. They must be through with the substantial part of the investigation by now(ball testing, interviews, any sideline video that may exist). Dragging this out much longer starts to create another competive integrity issue: the major distraction/disruption of the real preparation week of one the teams playing in the superbowl. I'm in agreement with the idea that was more likely a procedural screw up, and not a willful deflating of the footballs during the game, ordered by BB or Brady. But even if the worst is true, the league imposed sanctions part of this shitstorm needs to happen today. This morning.

 

[Luis Taint]

When kickers are punting and kicking off, aren't they trying to soften or deflate the ball, even scuff it up a little?

 

[Buster Olney the Lonely]

Makes my hatred for Peyton Manning grow. This never would have happened if not for that big-foreheaded doofus a) losing a home playoff game to Indianapolis last week and b) demanding that he be able to treat the balls before the game.

 

[tims4wins]

Brad Johnson paid "some guys off" to get all 100 footballs to his liking before he won the Super Bowl.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bucs/bucs-qb-johnson-paid-to-have-footballs-altered-before-sb-37/2214490

 
Wait did I miss the uproar where everyone demanded this title have an asterisk next to it, or be forfeited to Oakland?

 

[Ed Hillel]

Brad Johnson paid "some guys off" to get all 100 footballs to his liking before he won the Super Bowl.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bucs/bucs-qb-johnson-paid-to-have-footballs-altered-before-sb-37/2214490

The NFL's stellar season continues!