#DFG: Canceling the Noise

[Ed Hillel]

fwiw, according to a NYT article, both Manning and Brady were behind the rule change of being able to practice with the balls.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/03/sports/football/03football.html?fta=y&_r=0

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

What's the basis for the suggestion the balls were inflated at halftime? That doesn't square with what we saw on tv. I think it's been reported the balls were measured, but I thought yesterday's working assumption was they played the second half with Indy's balls. If they inflated the Pats' balls why did they need to swap at the beginning of the third quarter?

 

[dcmissle]

I want to provide some reassurance on one point: if the facts won't support it, the NFL will not try to run away from officials' non-performance and lay this on the Pats.

The stakes are too large. If the NFL does this, it obviously will require an enormous sanction. The Pats obviously know whether they deflated post inspection it not. If they didn't, there is no way in hell Kraft will agree to a BB suspension -- and that's what we'd be looking at.

There would be litigation, and all NFL officials would be subjected to examination. For that reason, and because officials do the right thing. I don't think we're getting thrown under the bus on this one.

 

[Dogman]

Been watching NFL Network for the last 20 mins.  Not a word about any of this.  Not on the scroll or the top stories tab.  

 

[Van Everyman]

What would be awesome here is if the Patriots intentionally pump these balls in hot temperatures and hand them over to the refs for inspection knowing that they will deflate to Brady's liking by game time. That way, nature does the deflation for them.

Could even explain some of Brady's yips in the first half.

 

[jsinger121]

Basically what will come of this is Pats will probably be fined. NFL refs from the Colts game could be disciplined. All balls going forward will be in the hands of NFL officiating personnel throughout the game.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I disagree.
 
I would love for this to happen, but am worried that the Pats will be "in the wrong place at the wrong time".
 
If the Refs are lax in their duties....that questions their integrity.  The NFL CANNOT allow that. The Refs may actually LIE and say "Umm yeah....we checked them....they all checked out fine....what happened after....uhh....maybe the Pats Ball Boy did something...but I did my job!"
 
Maybe I am naive,  but I believe the NFL would rather say "we had 1 renegade coach/team doing something wrong"  then "Our Refs had ignored a rule in our rule book, this is common.  We have asked them not to ignore this anymore."  Especially after this clusterf*ck of media coverage.
 
If the dont then every Fan of every team will wonder "Did the bears lose because the Refs were not doing their job?"

 
 
Well, then maybe the NFL can find a public resolution that doesn't throw either the Pats or the refs under the bus, and then take steps "behind the scenes" to ensure that balls are in compliance in all future games, like any good, organized, multi-billion dollar league would.

 

[Corsi]

What's the basis for the suggestion the balls were inflated at halftime? That doesn't square with what we saw on tv. I think it's been reported the balls were measured, but I thought yesterday's working assumption was they played the second half with Indy's balls. If they inflated the Pats' balls why did they need to swap at the beginning of the third quarter?

 

The league inspected each of the Patriots’ 12 game balls twice at halftime, using different pressure gauges, and found footballs that were not properly inflated.
 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/20/nfl-says-patriots-used-under-inflated-footballs/7UlPZI3eotRTBadM89saeO/story.html
 
If this is true, tough to believe they put those balls back in play.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

 
 
Well, then maybe the NFL can find a public resolution that doesn't throw either the Pats or the refs under the bus, and then takes steps "behind the scenes" to ensure that balls are in compliance in all future games, like any good, organized, multi-billion dollar league would.

 
One out of three ain't bad, I guess.

 

[21st Century Sox]

I still think the punishment is going to be a lot lighter than some people think if its just deflated balls and no real evidence. Unless a smoking gun turns up like an equipment manager saying he deflated the balls at BBs request its real hard to lay down the hammer.

Hope so, but doubt it. I am concerned about league officials being "distraught".
 
Also, the timing blows....it is too soon after the Ravens then the league shot themselves in the foot with the Ray Rice issue. Should that have a bearing? (mishandling a completely different issue) No, but I am thinking it will.....

 

[ivanvamp]

Basically what will come of this is Pats will probably be fined. NFL refs from the Colts game could be disciplined. All balls going forward will be in the hands of NFL officiating personnel throughout the game.

 
I think this last point highlights something that may change in the NFL from here on out.  The balls at all times will be under the control of the officials, and the changes that Manning/Brady successfully lobbied for will be undone.  And, really, it is kind of silly that each team should get to use its own footballs, prepared specifically for their own QB.  The balls should be uniform, and each team should have to use the same ones.  This is a very easy fix that should take the NFL about ten seconds to make.

 

[Corsi]

FWIW, Mike Greenberg said he was given a ball with 13 PSI and another with 9 PSI and he only noticed the difference because he knew beforehand that there was one.

 

[Average Reds]

Agree FS. And if that's the case, this disappears.

 
I actually agree as well, but disagree with the conclusion that this explanation will make the issue disappear.
 
It's foolish for the Pats to fill balls right on the border of what is instructed by the rulebook, because the Pats don't have the ability to say "that's on the NFL."  By virtue of their previous scrapes with technical infractions - and the continued excellence of the team - the Pats are going to be held to a higher standard.  To not understand this is mind blowing to me.
 
I will admit to feeling stupid myself when I realized for the first time that the NFL does not supply the balls for the game and the teams are allowed to (legally) doctor the balls.  This is also a foolish practice, as it practically invites this sort of controversy.
 
Edit:  To be clear, I'm not talking about sanctions.  I'm talking about the subject as an issue that will dog this team.

 

[pappymojo]

Basically what will come of this is Pats will probably be fined. NFL refs from the Colts game could be disciplined. All balls going forward will be in the hands of NFL officiating personnel throughout the game.

I suspect that if fined, the Patriots appeal. Further I suspect the Patriots would win an appeal.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

I think we're missing the real injustice here which is that kickers are not allowed to even touch the K ball, while prima donna quarterbacks can do whatever they want because they're soooooooo popular. Level playing field my ass.

You know it takes big balls to be a kicker. So big they have to be sealed for everyone's protection.

More seriously, do K balls make it harder to run fake punts/FGs? Or is the difference minimal?

 

[dcmissle]

Hope so, but doubt it. I am concerned about league officials being "distraught".
 
Also, the timing blows....it is too soon after the Ravens then the league shot themselves in the foot with the Ray Rice issue. Should that have a bearing? (mishandling a completely different issue) No, but I am thinking it will.....

"Distraught" is quite consistent with the refs not doing their jobs pre game.

 

[amh03]

So the facts as we think we know them are:
 
1) All 12 balls were approved for play by the officials prior to the first half (approval process unknown, PSI at that time unknown)
2) Those balls were measured prior to the second half; most were found to be underinflated and were adjusted accordingly (difference between first half PSI and second half PSI unknown)
 
Since suspicion and envy don't qualify as evidence, we currently have zero evidence that anything was done to the balls after they were submitted to the officials pre-game.

 
11 of the 12 balls test low at the half?  I'm hoping that they find a manufacturer's defect in the balls...

 

[Jnai]

FWIW, Mike Greenberg said he was given a ball with 13 PSI and another with 9 PSI and he only noticed the difference because he knew beforehand that there was one.

Give him a slightly mistuned headset. He'll notice every time.

It's an expertise issue.

Whatever you want to say, this "random guy can't tell" stuff is dumb.

 

[tims4wins]

From a science perspective, I would love to see a ball with 10.5 PSI and a ball with 12.5 PSI sent through a jugs machine at the exact same angle / speed, and then measure a couple things: distance traveled, and pressure / impact if fired into a wall at X yards. Very curious what the differences would be.

 

[pappymojo]

 
If the refs tested all of the balls before the game all that needs to happen is the Colts' footballs would also need to be tested. If they were at a similar starting PSI to the Patriots' footballs and then at about the same PSI after the game, then this is a non-story.
 
My hunch is the Colts' footballs were tested and were found to still be closer to 12.5 PSI despite being used in the same weather conditions, which is why the NFL is letting this story continue to have legs.
 
Please win the Super Bowl by three touchdowns, Pats, and then make a snide comment afterwards asking if anyone checked the pressure of the footballs.

However as posted previously the Patriots ran significantly more plays than the Colts.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I disagree.
 
I would love for this to happen, but am worried that the Pats will be "in the wrong place at the wrong time".
 
If the Refs are lax in their duties....that questions their integrity.  The NFL CANNOT allow that. The Refs may actually LIE and say "Umm yeah....we checked them....they all checked out fine....what happened after....uhh....maybe the Pats Ball Boy did something...but I did my job!"
 
Maybe I am naive,  but I believe the NFL would rather say "we had 1 renegade coach/team doing something wrong"  then "Our Refs had ignored a rule in our rule book, this is common.  We have asked them not to ignore this anymore."  Especially after this clusterf*ck of media coverage.
 
If the dont then every Fan of every team will wonder "Did the bears lose because the Refs were not doing their job?"

And this is why I'm going to wait and see what the league says/does about this whole affair. For all I know, the feelings of anger, disappointment, and distress have as much to do with the refs as it does anyone affiliated with the Pats. Those feelings could also be meant for how this was exposed or how some pro football players are asking for a forfeit or do-over.

The quote was:

A source told Mortensen the league is "disappointed ... angry ... distraught" at the latest findings.

Unless I missed a more complete quote in which those feelings were directed specifically at one person or group, I'll reserve my judgement about any alleged cheating, whether it affected the game, and if I need to buy a Garoppolo jersey after BB is suspended, Brady retires, and McDaniels and Garoppolo lead the Pats to another title.

I'd love to hear BB use all of this when addressing the team.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Was just trying to post that. So assuming this is true of professional football as well, it would appear that we are headed for yet another example of Belichick being excoriated for simply being a product of mainstream football culture the league would rather we not know about. 

That exact Q and A is what I've been saying for 2 days

 

[dcmissle]

 
I actually agree as well, but disagree with the conclusion that this explanation will make the issue disappear.
 
It's foolish for the Pats to fill balls right on the border of what is instructed by the rulebook, because the Pats don't have the ability to say "that's on the NFL."  By virtue of their previous scrapes with technical infractions - and the continued excellence of the team - the Pats are going to be held to a higher standard.  To not understand this is mind blowing to me.
 
I will admit to feeling stupid myself when I realized for the first time that the NFL does not supply the balls for the game and the teams are allowed to (legally) doctor the balls.  This is also a foolish practice, as it practically invites this sort of controversy.
 
Edit:  To be clear, I'm not talking about sanctions.  I'm talking about the subject as an issue that will dog this team.

I emphatically agree with the point I think you are making. If you are on probation, you should not smoke weed in the vast majority of these United States. Everyone else can. The Pats will be on probation as long as BB is there.

BB plays by the rules as observed. Maybe he should transform to a stickler of the rules as written and make himself a giant pain in the ass. Poetic Justice.

 

[twibnotes]

For what it's worth, this is another log on the "belichick could write an amazing book post retirement" fire

I would love to know what he really thinks of this situation

 

[cutman1000]

I would like to know what the 2nd half balls measured after the game was over.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Ok I take it all back. Don't fire Belichick, give him another monster extension. If anything, this is like the Lester goo shit. I think Kraft should officially move to change our name to the New England Cheatriots and Belichick should legally change his name to Belicheat.

I've now completed the two stages of fandom over this, so bring on the Seahawks.

 

[JimBoSox9]

Been watching NFL Network for the last 20 mins.  Not a word about any of this.  Not on the scroll or the top stories tab.  

 
This is basically their finest hour.
 
 
 
Apologies if this was posted yesterday (thread's been a hard follow, ya?), but even if it was Michael Hurley deserves double credit for taking the time to publish the Rosenshite takedown column we all needed.  It includes this gem:
 
 

The most forgotten part of the “SpyGate scandal” is the fact that Goodell played the videos on a loop for reporters at the press conference when he announced his punishment. The reporters got to watch the footage on a loop prior to Goodell’s stepping to the podium. (I will always remember this, because the NFL Network’s Rich Eisen cracked one of the better jokes in sports TV history. It was, essentially, “This is the first time ever that a journalist is watching a video in a hotel but doesn’t have to pay $9.99 an hour for it.” What a line, Rich.)

 
 
 

Who is going to get fired for the one ball that wasn't deflated?

 
Finally, someone asks the relevant question.  I want heads, dammit.  It's "Do Your Job", not "Do 11/12ths of Your Job".
 
The other relevant question: why is the optimal inflation for performance not the same as the legal inflation?  At the very least, we should come out of this with something a lil more realistic in the books than a laughable 1 psi window.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

A surprisingly reasonable and fair assessment by Florio:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/21/many-questions-linger-regarding-deflategate/

 

[DJnVa]

I'm hoping for a reasonable explanation but fearing that it's another example of Belichick cutting corners to gain an edge, even a small one. Damn it. This sucks.

 
 
Who knows--but coming a week after Brady said "Maybe they should read the rulebook" in response to Harbaugh, it just looks odd...
 

 

[Salem's Lot]

I'm sure there's an official report signed by the ref exactly 2 hours before the game giving the exact psi for all 24 game balls presented by both teams. Wait there probably wasn't an official report filed? You mean the refs probably just picked up a couple of the balls and said "ok, these are good" before grabbing a pre-game sandwich? Another example of something that isn't a big deal until it's the Patriots.

 

[JimBoSox9]

 
 
Who knows--but coming a week after Brady said "Maybe they should read the rulebook" in response to Harbaugh, it just looks odd...
 

 
We're talking about the part of the rulebook that (to make an analogy) tells hitters to stay inside the batter's box and not muck that pretty white back line.  It doesn't look odd.

 

[esfr]

i highly recommend this article for anyone letting this get you down this morning.  http://markmanson.net/not-giving-a-fuck

 

[bakahump]

Science Question....
 
 
Pat Ball is at 12.4PSI in 70 degree Ref Locker room.
Its gets used in 41 degree weather and becomes 10.8.
Ball gets measured its realized that its low and is confiscated so it can be investigated.
It travels to the NFL offices and sits in someones 70 degree office.

Would the reheating  "expand the air"  back to 12.4PSI?
 
Also after the "Ref Check"  (2:15 prior) do they sit outside?  Is that figured into the calculations for loss?  We are not just talking about 3 hours of game time....but also another 2 Hours of "sitting there".

 

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

I dont usually buy a paper, but I'm stopping to pick a few of those up and taping them to my front picture window, facing out, for all of north Jersey to see.......

 

[Stitch01]

I emphatically agree with the point I think you are making. If you are on probation, you should not smoke weed in the vast majority of these United States. Everyone else can. The Pats will be on probation as long as BB is there.

BB plays by the rules as observed. Maybe he should transform to a stickler of the rules as written and make himself a giant pain in the ass. Poetic Justice.

So if it actually is common practice (and I dont know if it is) to deflate balls, and the Pats deflate balls like everyone else, you'd have a major issue with that?  

 

[JimD]

Give him a slightly mistuned headset. He'll notice every time.

It's an expertise issue.

 
And yet the professional referees who officiated the game and handled these balls at the end of each play for two quarters didn't notice.

 

[SumnerH]

Science Question....
 
 
Pat Ball is at 12.4PSI in 70 degree Ref Locker room.
Its gets used in 41 degree weather and becomes 10.8.
Ball gets measured its realized that its low and is confiscated so it can be investigated.
It travels to the NFL offices and sits in someones 70 degree office.
Would the reheating  "expand the air"  back to 12.4PSI?

 
Yes.  This is why it's important to get the actual NFL report and find out what was measured when and where.

 

[jsinger121]

 

[Ed Hillel]

When does Reiss break the news that Kyle Eckel has been added to the 53-man roster?

 

[Boston Brawler]

Give him a slightly mistuned headset. He'll notice every time.

It's an expertise issue.

Whatever you want to say, this "random guy can't tell" stuff is dumb.

This begs the question of how the professional referees missed it though, handling the ball after every play.

 

[Corsi]

Jon Gruden on Mike & Mike:
 
"I don't think much of this."

"Back in the day kickers would put balls in the dryer.  Some QBs like them over-inflated, some like them under-inflated."
 
"I don't understand what the commotion is in a 45-7 game."
 
"I remember when we were in the Super Bowl and the balls were a concern to Brad Johnson."

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

That  Johnson thing is kind of amazing.  He actually bribed people to prepare the balls to his liking?

 
 
No, he hired people to prepare the balls to his liking.  Like every QB does.

 

[SumnerH]

 
Note that the nominal pressure of a ball is really shorthand for "X PSI above the normal atmospheric pressure".    Normal atmospheric pressure is about 14.7 PSI; a ball that was measured at "13 PSI" was really at 27.7 PSI of total pressure**.  If it lost 2 PSI of pressure, then it went from 27.7 PSI to 25.7 PSI of total pressure: about a 7% loss.

 
I've had a couple of PMs about this.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_measurement#Absolute.2C_gauge_and_differential_pressures_-_zero_reference explains the difference between gauge pressure (which is what you're measuring when you say a ball is at 13 PSI) and absolute pressure (which is what you need to feed into Gay Lussac's or the Ideal Gas Law to run the calculations correctly).

 

[Stitch01]

 
I actually agree as well, but disagree with the conclusion that this explanation will make the issue disappear.
 
It's foolish for the Pats to fill balls right on the border of what is instructed by the rulebook, because the Pats don't have the ability to say "that's on the NFL."  By virtue of their previous scrapes with technical infractions - and the continued excellence of the team - the Pats are going to be held to a higher standard.  To not understand this is mind blowing to me.
 
I will admit to feeling stupid myself when I realized for the first time that the NFL does not supply the balls for the game and the teams are allowed to (legally) doctor the balls.  This is also a foolish practice, as it practically invites this sort of controversy.
 
Edit:  To be clear, I'm not talking about sanctions.  I'm talking about the subject as an issue that will dog this team.

 
Pats can't win in terms of public perception at this point, so don't worry about that. Even if they're cleared, the old spygate articles are getting dusted off and rewritten after this Super Bowl.  If they win next year, the articles will ask about what they are doing that the league missed.  Unanimous affirmation about how awesome the Pats are aint coming.
 
Maybe the Pats did something nefarious here, maybe they didnt, but if its just inflating the ball to minimum specs I think its crazy to think the Pats are going to think "well, here's something within the rules that's common practice, but because spygate happened seven years ago we're going to inflate the balls more".  

 

[TheoShmeo]

 
 
I think this is wrong. The NFL can and will punish but they will not do it severely without conclusive proof the NE doctored the balls post official inspection.  If they did punish without proper evidence, that would be a horrible precedent. 

I agree with the conclusion that they will not act in a severe way without some real proof tying the Pats to the offense and a showing of intent.  I don't agree with your prior comment that they are required to act in that way.  They are not.  They might decide that it is in their best interests to act that way but, as we have seen, Goodell has a lot of discretion in how he metes out justice.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
By my calculations*:
70F to 40F you'd go from 13 PSI to 11.43 PSI (27.7 to 26.13 PSI real pressure), or about 1.5 PSI lost.
70F to 50F you'd go from 13 PSI to 11.94 PSI (27.7 to 26.64 PSI real pressure), or about 1 PSI lost.
 
Note that the nominal pressure of a ball is really shorthand for "X PSI above the normal atmospheric pressure".    Normal atmospheric pressure is about 14.7 PSI; a ball that was measured at "13 PSI" was really at 27.7 PSI of total pressure**.  If it lost 2 PSI of pressure, then it went from 27.7 PSI to 25.7 PSI of total pressure: about a 7% loss.
 
For everyone doing the calculation, that difference is crucial.   If you throw 13 PSI into a Combined Gas Law Calculator for the pressure and then vary the temperature, you'll underestimate the effect of temperature significantly and come to the conclusion that the ball only loses about 0.4 PSI from the 70 to 50F change rather than something more like 1 full PSI.
 
*http://www.calculatoredge.com/chemical/combined%20gas%20law.htm double checked at http://www.1728.org/combined.htm
**If it were actually 13 PSI, it'd be lower pressure than the surrounding air--when you opened the valve, it'd suck in air rather than spewing air out.

Thanks Sumner. I was making that exact mistake.

If a drop of 1.5 is plausibly attributed to temperature, that's hard to rule out.

 

[mulluysavage]

This is what I was thinking.

-Take a dozen game balls, all slight used and rubbed up.

-inflate them to varying levels, 11.5 psi, 12, 12.5, 13...etc.

- get our intercepting friend, and bunches of other offensive and defensive players, and some refs

- throw them the balls and give them a few seconds to guess what the pressure is

- measure success rate. Would successful guess be better than random, within 0.5psi? 1psi? 1.5?

-get them to play full pad practice and repeat the guessing game. (Only this because I would imagine during the heat of competition a player might be even less accurate at guessing, particularly an amped up defender).

Obviously it's not entirely scientific....

 
[youtube] BALL-FEEL CHALLENGE
 
Dear NFL players who are tweeting that the Pats should forfeit games - my name is mulluysavage, and I hearby challenge you to a ball-feel test on video to be posted to Youtube.
 
If you can accurately identify balls deflated 2 lbs psi under the league minimum to a statistically meaningful degree, you will have powerful evidence to back up your claims/tweet.
 
If not, you will be expected to issue an apology on our youtube video.
 
Either way, the test will be videotaped uncut and posted.
 
Anyone?
 
Thank you.
 
[/youtube]

 

[crystalline]

 
If the refs tested all of the balls before the game all that needs to happen is the Colts' footballs would also need to be tested. If they were at a similar starting PSI to the Patriots' footballs and then at about the same PSI after the game, then this is a non-story.
 
My hunch is the Colts' footballs were tested and were found to still be closer to 12.5 PSI despite being used in the same weather conditions, which is why the NFL is letting this story continue to have legs.
 
Please win the Super Bowl by three touchdowns, Pats, and then make a snide comment afterwards asking if anyone checked the pressure of the footballs.

What if Andrew Luck, like Aaron Rodgers, intentionally overinflates his balls?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

And yet the professional referees who officiated the game and handled these balls at the end of each play for two quarters didn't notice.

To go back to my admittedly at the time tongue in cheek experiments last night, the differences were virtually nonexistent from 10 to 17 lbs psi. Tiny gradations. Once you got over 10, each additional pound was just not something you could tell by squeezing. For someone whose job it is to throw a football, the difference may very well manifest in little things like the feel of the pebbling or something, but for anyone thinking this affects the feel of the softness of the ball or its squishiness, it didn't in my backyard experiment. That a ref would feel no difference sounds right to me.

 

[dcmissle]

So if it actually is common practice (and I dont know if it is) to deflate balls, and the Pats deflate balls like everyone else, you'd have a major issue with that?  

Only is they screwed with the balls after the refs ok'ed them. What I'm saying is, we are judged differently. Life is unfair