#DFG: Canceling the Noise

[EL Jeffe]

I know a lot of folks who've worked with Wells over the years.  The concept of Wells discovering any document in a document production is beyond comical. He's an amazing, hardworking lawyer but he's not exactly a guy who's doing a ton of document review.

 
Or using some misleading hyperliteral reading ("Oh I hadn't seen the document" but he saw it's full text in deposition outline or something).

There is some small chance the associate doing the document review is a total moron and they didn't find it.  A good percentage of junior associates at great firms are, despite the clerkships, law review, great schools and all, complete fucking idiots when it comes to working a case.

Would it be crazy to think that Wells was fully aware of the text but the strategy was to just keep asking for additional interviews until he received a "no" so they could hit the Patriots with a lack of cooperation charge? Maybe realizing the deflation evidence was weak, they felt compelled to find a second issue warranting punishment to provide a stronger case for discipline? Or is that tinfoil hat stuff?

 

[Tim Salmon]

Would it be crazy to think that Wells was fully aware of the text but the strategy was to just keep asking for additional interviews until he received a "no" so they could hit the Patriots with a lack of cooperation charge? Maybe realizing the deflation evidence was weak, they felt compelled to find a second issue warranting punishment to provide a stronger case for discipline? Or is that tinfoil hat stuff?

 
This entire investigation and PR tit-for-tat between the league and the Patriots has been tinfoil hat stuff.  I think it's fair to speculate about crazy, nefarious motives, because innocent ones just don't explain any of the NFL's or Wells' actions.

 

[TomTerrific]

Got my informal sample of the country's reaction this weekend while travelling:
 
1. In Denver waiting for my next flight and chatted up the bartender, who's a lifelong Broncos fan. Asked him for his reaction to the report, he said he was glad the Pats got whacked, because he couldn't stand people who were always trying to cut every corner looking for an advantage. He also mentioned Spygate. My wife gave me the evil eye as I prepared a snarky query about the Broncos history of cheating so I kept my mouth shut. Whatever.
 
2. Poolside today in Palm Springs, talking to a fellow who looked like a 30-year old surfer to me. He said he was a die-hard Chargers fan when my wife asked him who he rooted for, and said he could tell who we liked since I was wearing my SB XLIX hat. I asked what he thought of Deflategate, and he said it was the biggest frame-up he had ever seen. He goes on to trash the Wells Report, especially the science part. I can't believe what I am hearing. Then it comes out that he has a PhD in physics and does underwater acoustic work for Scripps. Which means he represents like 0.001% of NFL fans. 
 
In a nutshell, we're fucked from the POV of the average fan out there, and I'm coming to terms with that. All I'm hoping for at this point, in order of preference, is 1. Some independent arbiter ruling saying the Well Report is horseshit, and 2. Roger getting the can

 

[judyb]

Would it be crazy to think that Wells was fully aware of the text but the strategy was to just keep asking for additional interviews until he received a "no" so they could hit the Patriots with a lack of cooperation charge? Maybe realizing the deflation evidence was weak, they felt compelled to find a second issue warranting punishment to provide a stronger case for discipline? Or is that tinfoil hat stuff?

And, in the meantime, the league gives McNally an incentive to not agree to another interview by leaking who he is and where he lives to the media?

 

[Ed Hillel]

I love people who expand their personal bitterness into sports. "I can't stand people who cut corners" usually translates to "I am where I am today because I played by the rules and others cut corners to get ahead." That's some delicious wah wah pants.

 

[djbayko]

Got my informal sample of the country's reaction this weekend while travelling:
 
1. In Denver waiting for my next flight and chatted up the bartender, who's a lifelong Broncos fan. Asked him for his reaction to the report, he said he was glad the Pats got whacked, because he couldn't stand people who were always trying to cut every corner looking for an advantage. He also mentioned Spygate. My wife gave me the evil eye as I prepared a snarky query about the Broncos history of cheating so I kept my mouth shut. Whatever.
 
2. Poolside today in Palm Springs, talking to a fellow who looked like a 30-year old surfer to me. He said he was a die-hard Chargers fan when my wife asked him who he rooted for, and said he could tell who we liked since I was wearing my SB XLIX hat. I asked what he thought of Deflategate, and he said it was the biggest frame-up he had ever seen. He goes on to trash the Wells Report, especially the science part. I can't believe what I am hearing. Then it comes out that he has a PhD in physics and does underwater acoustic work for Scripps. Which means he represents like 0.001% of NFL fans. 
 
In a nutshell, we're fucked from the POV of the average fan out there, and I'm coming to terms with that. All I'm hoping for at this point, in order of preference, is 1. Some independent arbiter ruling saying the Well Report is horseshit, and 2. Roger getting the can

Exponent commends you on your sample size.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I love people who expand their personal bitterness into sports. "I can't stand people who cut corners" usually translates to "I am where I am today because I played by the rules and others cut corners to get ahead." That's some delicious wah wah pants.

 
Shouldn't you be filing for an annulment right about now?

 

[DJnVa]

I had a Pats shirt on today and guy walked up to me in a bookstore and whispered "Deflategate is bullshit" and walked away.

 

[ivanvamp]

I think we are just going to have to find a way to not let what other fans think and say bother us. The fact is, they'd trade their teams' last 15 years for the Patriots, each and every one of them.

We can just smile when they say stupid stuff about the Pats cheating.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

I had a Pats shirt on today and guy walked up to me in a bookstore and whispered "Deflategate is bullshit" and walked away.

 
If that's a Boston bookstore, it doesn't count.

 

[AB in DC]

Exponent commends you on your sample size.

 
Nicely done.

 

[snowmanny]

I think we are just going to have to find a way to not let what other fans think and say bother us. The fact is, they'd trade their teams' last 15 years for the Patriots, each and every one of them.

We can just smile when they say stupid stuff about the Pats cheating.

Well, this will give all of us a relatively unique fan experience next year.  There's a lot of "us against the world" stuff that gets thrown around in sports but this one will be tough to top.  It could be fun.
 
Edit: And interesting as well.  What more can you ask for?

 

[theapportioner]

I had a Pats shirt on today and guy walked up to me in a bookstore and whispered "Deflategate is bullshit" and walked away.

 
"The North Remembers"

 

[Harry Hooper]

 
MacKinnon made a very good and succinct argument about this, which boils down to the logic of the Wells report in this respect assuming no measurement error.  They assume the Patriots really did submit balls at 12.5, that the Colts really did submit balls at 13, and that Anderson's measurement and recollections about the pressure of each ball were fully accurate.
 
The most damning evidence against this idea, and really one of the more damning sets of evidence against the entire logic of Exponent in terms of their drawing conclusions from the data, is that the halftime recordings are so variable and make no temporal sense.
 
If every Patriots ball really started at 12.5 and if only the Ideal Gas Law affected their relative changes in temperature, then what we would see is that the 1st ball measured would have the lowest pressure and then pressure would steadily climb over the next 10 balls since each successive ball had been exposed to a longer time inside at halftime.  The fact that there is not even a remote semblance of this pattern (in fact the lowest recording is one of the last balls measured) basically shows that there were massive sources of error somewhere in the process.  Those errors probably make the entire enterprise useless.  But they also make it largely fruitless to infer which gauge was originally used based on assumptions regarding the absolute accuracy of pre-game ball readings.

 
Isn't there an engineering term for this, process out of statistical control?
 
 

Well, this will give all of us a relatively unique fan experience next year.  There's a lot of "us against the world" stuff that gets thrown around in sports but this one will be tough to top.  It could be fun.
 
Edit: And interesting as well.  What more can you ask for?

 
All the draft picks back, including the one taken for Spygate.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

Since the likelihood that a team of dozens of PW attorneys poring over this stuff missed it approaches zero, yeah, he's lying.

Seven. Seven lawyers, including Wells. Can we please knock it off with the narrative that the 40-man roster was staffed on this case?

 

[garzooma]

My biggest take away from the report is that it's a pure advocacy piece, not an independent investigation.

If I represented the NFL asked one of our younger attorneys to write a motion to the court arguing our position in support of a request for punishment, I would say he/she did a good job with the limited evidence available.
 

If you or another legal expert on the board would indulge another question: from my extensive legal training watching Law and Order , I always thought that one thing that a prosecutor wanted to do was to establish a narrative to explain what happened.  In reading (ok, skimming) the Wells Report, I didn't see this.  Should we attach any importance to this omission?  Because it occurred to me that coming up with something isn't all that easy.  What exactly did Wells think Brady conveyed to J&M:

• "I want the balls somewhat less than 12.5" Weird -- Brady would have something in mind.
• "I want the balls half a PSI less than 12.5" Would Brady even be able to tell?
• "I want the balls 1 [or more] PSI less than 12.5" But the balls weren't 1 or more PSI less than they should have been.

Basically I'm wondering if the lack of a narrative indicates that Wells couldn't come up with anything half-way reasonable.  Which would be pretty telling.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Thinking about putting my TV in some kind of plexiglass cage in anticipation of all the 50/50 calls that never seem to go in the Pats favor next season.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I had a Pats shirt on today and guy walked up to me in a bookstore and whispered "Deflategate is bullshit" and walked away.

Dude, that was you?

 

[DegenerateSoxFan]

I'm in northeast PA this weekend, not exactly a Pats-friendly area, and I've talked to several people who think that while the Pats probably did mess with the balls, the penalty was ridiculous. I guess we can take comfort in the fact that if there's anything or anyone folks hate more than the Pats, it's Goodell. As one dude put it, "that guy could fuck up a cup of coffee."

 

[Ed Hillel]

NYPost writer Bart Hubbuch, from Texas, calling New Englanders "skinheads."

He's melting down on Twitter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/bruceallen/status/599719087623827457/photo/1

lol:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BartHubbuch/status/599746826493763585

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I'm reminded of Aaron Sorkin talking about the central conundrum of the court martial case in his play, then film, A FEW GOOD MEN. It's basically what Tom Cruise (Kaffee) asks not long before Nicholson's Colonel Jessep blows a gasket: "If you gave an order that Santiago wasn't to be touched, and your orders are always followed, then why would Santiago be in danger?"

"Mr. Anderson..." (Walt, not Neo) "If you were aware of, and so freaked out by, this unprecedented breach - 'Where are the balls (for ninety seconds)?! Where are the balls (for ninety seconds)?!' - and if PSI is as important as the Wells Report and The Nation now suggests that it always has been, and if you have back-up balls and a protocol, why not just use the back-up balls or check the ones that disappeared (for ninety seconds)?"

Do I have this wrong? If so, my apologies. If not, how is any of this hard for even the barely curious media member who might want to make a name for him/her self by exploring a new angle on THE HOTTEST SPORTS STORY GOING right now?

 

[soxhop411]

“Carr, like several other quarterbacks, said Denver was one of the toughest places to play,” Battista wrote. “He said he thought the ball expanded slightly at the altitude and felt slick because of the lower humidity. Before Houston’s preseason game at Denver, Carr instructed the ball boys to let a little air out of the Texans’ footballs.” (Emphasis added.)
 

David Carr spoke of deflating footballs in 2006

 

[J.McG]

Not that it means much of anything, but I was mildly amused to hear that some members of the Wells family are apparently Jets fans - at least Ted's daughter appears to be:

Bruce Allen @bruceallen: So the Wells family are Jets fans. That might be the least surprising development in this case. (5/16/2015, 10:09 PM)

Teresa Wells @tvwells: Apparently its annoying when the #Jets are losing and u give exactly 90 updates about the Real Housewives of Atlanta to ur fiancee. #whoknew (11/13/2011, 11:50 PM)
Teresa Wells @tvwells: @mcbc he is a social media strategist so I think it is okay. I am wearing a Jets jersey while tweeting so that absolves me right? (11/14/2011, 12:19 AM)

Spoiler

https://twitter.com/tvwells/status/135942654121881600

https://twitter.com/tvwells/status/135942654121881600

link to tweet
https://twitter.com/tvwells/status/135950043734740992

https://twitter.com/tvwells/status/135950043734740992

link to tweet

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Why assume that Farley kept them in order? No one in that room knew about the effect of temperature at the time. He could have written out the pairs of pressure for each ball tested and placed it next the ball and then only collected them later. There's no mention of any significance given to the ball numbers in the Wells report, in fact the post-game measurement footnote says they are random.

 
We don't know but given the emphasis placed on it being an extremely regimented process and in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, I'm comfortable with the assumption that the balls were tested in the order they were labeled.  Also, Wells/Exponent gains very little from this - it only hurts them because it makes the data look like shit.  So if they had reason to believe otherwise, I think they would have said so.

 

[Super Nomario]

Are you assuming that the Patriots footballs as numbered in the Wells Report were numbered in order of testing? There's no indication of that in the report itself? Where do you get that?

Wells doesn't explictly write that, but Exponent explicitly interprets it that way ("The measurements listed in the table were taken in chronological order", Exponent 6), and presumably Wells would have contradicted that if it was wrong. 
 

What if certain balls were used more often in the first half?

Exponent attempted to test for this by subjecting balls to pressure (pg 32-33). I'm not persuaded that the test covered all the variables involved in additional game use. This is when it would be nice if, y'know, they'd measured the other eight Colts balls so they had a real control group.

 

[Walpole Joe's Neighbor]

In much of the country, Brady has long been seen as the pretty boy socialite who knocked up his actress girl friend before moving on to something hotter, an image brought into high relief by his juxtaposition to Peyton who married his college girl friend and raised a family.
 
I think it's bullshit on several levels, but that's the narrative believed by many reasonable and reasonably informed people.

It is bullshit. I happen to have a close friend connected in sports media and Peyton is one of the biggest hounds out there. But you're right the narrative has already been written and digested.

 

[lambeau]

Does anyone understand the math which convinced the NFL that Anderson used non-logo gauge for his pre-game measurements?

 

[djbayko]

Does anyone understand the math which convinced the NFL that Anderson used non-logo gauge for his pre-game measurements?

Yes, although I can't remember the rationale off the top of my head. Go read the rebuttal by the Patriots' scientist. He does a good job of explaining it, along with why it is BS - from a statistical standpoint and not just because of the cherry picking of gauge readings.

 

[lambeau]

Yes, got it. MacKinnon is quite clear.

 

[MB's Hidden Ball]

Seven. Seven lawyers, including Wells. Can we please knock it off with the narrative that the 40-man roster was staffed on this case?

 
 
To the uninitiated seven sounds like a lot. If there are seven lawyers how many investigators/support staff would there be, and would some of the support staff be qualified and/or authorized to screen the documents to highlight the relevant stuff?  

 

[Ed Hillel]

New stuff:

https://wellsreportcontext.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/nep_psi_excerpts-from-emails-5_15_15.pdf

 

[dcmissle]

 
 
To the uninitiated seven sounds like a lot. If there are seven lawyers how many investigators/support staff would there be, and would some of the support staff be qualified and/or authorized to screen the documents to highlight the relevant stuff?  

Seven seems like a lot for something like this. The only caveat I will add is if one or two of the lawyers is a specialist who was pulled in on a sliver of this case and spent comparatively few hours. It's possible, but doubtful to me.

Seven would be more understandable if they cranked this out in 2 months. It took almost 3 and one half.

 

[MB's Hidden Ball]

Seven seems like a lot for something like this. The only caveat I will add is if one or two of the lawyers is a specialist who was pulled in on a sliver of this case and spent comparatively few hours. It's possible, but doubtful to me.
Seven would be more understandable if they cranked this out in 2 months. It took almost 3 and one half.

Thanks for the explanation.

 

[Harry Hooper]

New stuff:

https://wellsreportcontext.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/nep_psi_excerpts-from-emails-5_15_15.pdf

 
 
Wow, the figurative pissing contest almost turned into a literal one.
 

His time in
the bathroom was approximately 95
seconds -- a duration that I am
sure you have, from your own
experience
 

 

[Ralphwiggum]

Wow. At a minimum those emails show that Wells characterization of the Pats lack of cooperation with respect to McNally is grossly and needlessly inflammatory and in not consistent in any way with how a "neutral" investigator would characterize them.

 

[Average Reds]

Now that we are seeing the full picture here, it really should be clear that the entirety of the case against the Pats is that an employee had to take a leak and the Pats can't prove he didn't deflate the footballs in the 90 second interval.

Everything else in this fishing expedition has been a matter of Ted Wells and his crew desperately manipulating facts to absolve the NFL of the responsibility for a Keystone Cops-like vendetta instigated by frustrated, paranoid competitors and driven by NFL execs who prejudged the situation.

 

[RedOctober3829]

In no way was their refusal to make JM available unreasonable. Just another example of how this is a witch hunt.

 

[joe dokes]

Ben Volin relies on lester Munson today. Oy.  Munson  is "a long time attorney" (UNTIL HE RESIGNED IN THE FACE OF DISCIPLINE MORE THAN 20 YEARS AGO) who  said Brady's chances in court are slim because Judge Doty, who has so often ruled for players, "is on Senior Status nd no longer taking cases."  This is just plain wrong.  Fed judges on senior status HAVE TO take a minimum number of cases to remain there. Otherwise they have to retire. Doty is still listed on senior status. There is no indicatoin that he isn't taking cases.  In fact, he issued an order in a case on May 11.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I un-followed Volin on Twitter and won't be giving him clicks anymore. He's really been leading the parade of idiots on this story, at least from a local print media perspective.

 

[joe dokes]

Maybe Munson had the wrong David Doty in his research cross-hairs:
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/news/56173002-78/district-doty-education-canyons.html.csp
 
Thurman Munson would be a better analyst.

 

[Van Everyman]

I wouldn't say Volin has been a cheerleader – he's a good beat reporter (remember how early he was in on the idea of Revis coming to the Pats) who is conscious of being seen as a homer or apologist for the team he covers so he plays both sides. Sometimes to a fault, sure, but he's no hack.

 

[joe dokes]

I wouldn't say Volin has been a cheerleader – he's a good beat reporter (remember how early he was in on the idea of Revis coming to the Pats) who is conscious of being seen as a homer or apologist for the team he covers so he plays both sides. Sometimes to a fault, sure, but he's no hack.

 
I dont care about his hackdom.. He screwed this one up, though. And the premise of "lack of success in fed courts by disciplined players" is pretty poorly supported.  Or his source screwed him and he didnt check a single fact.

 

[allstonite]

I wouldn't say Volin has been a cheerleader – he's a good beat reporter (remember how early he was in on the idea of Revis coming to the Pats) who is conscious of being seen as a homer or apologist for the team he covers so he plays both sides. Sometimes to a fault, sure, but he's no hack.

 
Listen to his most recent Toucher and Rich appearance. He was making it seem like they were guilty and trying to get off on a technicality. His basis for this was that Brady never denied any wrongdoing. This was proven wrong by a 30 second google search where he denied it in the press conference the first Super Bowl week. Then he said Yee has been so vocal ripping the other side but he had not denied any wrongdoing by Brady. Another 45 seconds on google proved this wrong. He is absolutely a hack trying to look smarter than everyone else because he isn't backing the local team. I don't care if you have a differing opinion but to call yourself a journalist and base your opinions on misinformation makes him a hack.

 

[lambeau]

What do the lawyers think of NFLPA's chance in court of getting Goodell removed as hearing officer of the appeal? While the CBA clearly gives him that right, are his credibility and partiality being suspect sufficient grounds?
Or is this more likely just laying the groundwork to help get Goodell's eventual decision vacated?

 

[Koufax]

Probably the latter.  I doubt that a court would want to get involved in this before the internal process is compete.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

In no way was their refusal to make JM available unreasonable. Just another example of how this is a witch hunt.

I am incensed about this now that full context is coming to light. Wells can choke on his own weasely mustache. They fucking agreed to a single interview and had the text messages.

Ben Volin relies on lester Munson today. Oy.  Munson  is "a long time attorney" (UNTIL HE RESIGNED IN THE FACE OF DISCIPLINE MORE THAN 20 YEARS AGO) who  said Brady's chances in court are slim because Judge Doty, who has so often ruled for players, "is on Senior Status nd no longer taking cases."  This is just plain wrong.  Fed judges on senior status HAVE TO take a minimum number of cases to remain there. Otherwise they have to retire. Doty is still listed on senior status. There is no indicatoin that he isn't taking cases.  In fact, he issued an order in a case on May 11.

To me, Volin has fully crossed over to the CHB/Borges land. His take on this is more asinine than even the brain dead ESPN talking heads. My suspicion is he's angling for a national job - like Reiss and Bedard before him - but sadly he is 1/10th the reporter they are. Fuck Volin with a chopstick.

 

[TheWizard]

As one of the texters said on one of the afternoon shows, Ben Volin is now known as Ben Trolin.

 

[DegenerateSoxFan]

Maybe Munson had the wrong David Doty in his research cross-hairs:
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/news/56173002-78/district-doty-education-canyons.html.csp
 
Thurman Munson would be a better analyst.

It always been a wonder to me that slimball hacks get media gigs like this. No, integrity isn't a prerequisite. See, e.g., Grace, Nancy. Still, it's amazing that someone like Munson gets cited by major media outlets as somehow authoritative. You'd think that SOMEONE might point out that that not only did Munson get forced out of the profession twenty years ago for unethical behavior, he's talking out his ass on this business. Labor and antitrust law covers some pretty complex and specialized areas of expertise for attorneys. I've been practicing for fifteen years, but have had very limited involvement in employment matters and can't imagine holding myself out as an expert in what this mess involves. And yet people don't question Munson being presented as an expert? I know it shouldn't be surprising, but still...

 

[TheoShmeo]

The Patriots and Brady need to take a different approach if they have ANY hope of winning over public sentiment.  The Patriots' brief was, I think, quite good.  They erred in including the Deflator stuff given that it is too easily laughed off.  Tactical blunder.  But otherwise, they make excellent points.
 
The problem is that those points are not easily digestible into twitter or otherwise bite size nuggets.  Most people have no ability to actually follow an argument that requires three or four steps.  As a result, if Tom or the Pats have any hope of winning the PR war, they need to release a statement that makes the three or four key points in one-liners.
 
If I were them, I would be hammering home that 3 of the 4 Colts balls were below 12.5 on one the two gauges at half time.  That's incredibly compelling if you want to demonstrate that this is all a sham.  (I'd lead with that in the appeals process, as well).  And it's easily reducible to a one-liner.  I would also emphasize that the NFL and Wells have no evidence whatsoever of Tom asking for balls to be below 12.5.  Again, that's easily said.
 
I came to this conclusion for two reasons.  One, it's obvious, and I am a connoisseur of the obvious. Two, every person I speak to in the NY area who is anti-Pats only has a blurred understanding of this issue because they are unwilling to sift through long documents.  
 
Now maybe folks will say that winning the PR war is hopeless and pointless, and there is something to that.  But in the long run, I think it would help Brady, and could not hurt him, if a basic understanding of why this is all so FUBAR was at least made available to people.  They may choose to keep their heads in the sand, but the ONLY way to combat the current view is to provide the information in bite size, idiot proof morsels. 

 

[ifmanis5]

The Pats lost the PR battle in the 2 weeks before the SB. Getting that back isn't even an option. We're too far down the road for that. Winning in court is all they have left on this matter.