#DFG: Canceling the Noise
- Thread starter nattysez
- Start date
TomTerrific said:
For all the "knowledge" you claim exists within Kull's list, here's a list of some of the relevant points that have yet to be brought into the open, and confirmed by the NFL
-- The psi of the Patriots game balls prior to the game, and at halftime
-- the psi of the Colts game balls prior to the game and at halftime
-- whether, in fact, the Colts game balls were checked at halftime
-- if the Colts game balls were measured at half, had they lost psi in about the same proportion as the Patriots
-- were the psi results recorded pre-game and at halftime
-- what exactly was the "chain of evidence" of the suspect game balls at halftime
-- did Kensil gauge the balls himself at half, or did he have a ref do so under his supervision
-- if Grigson is telling the truth about when he informed the NFL about psi concerns, were the Patriots informed
-- did the Colts make a similar complaint after the November game and, if so, were the Patriots informed
-- did the Ravens make a complaint to the NFL
-- what exactly is the protocol for telling a team than another organization has registered a complaint
I would suggest that focusing on the leaks as "knowledge" is a fool's errand. Leaks are an attempt to a) spin the story and b) re-enforce pre-existing prejudices prior to the release of actual facts. Leaks of sorta-truths and opinions are a trampoline for conclusions that ultimately could fall apart in the face of factual evidence
DeJesus is right. We might never know what actually happened, precisely because the NFL botched this from the start. That neither convicts or absolves the Patriots. Regardless of what comes out in the Wells report, there will be doubters on all sides who will never believe the findings.
Meanwhile, http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-04-19/news/ct-talk-huppke-obit-facts-20120419_1_facts-philosopher-opinion
It is utterly mind boggling about how much the NFL doesn't know about the balls even when they were (supposedly) tipped off about them or at least had enough concerns about them to be in a position to make official measurements to address any possible questions.
Thanks for posting that. Great read from a guy no one has heard from in forever. I want to see that definitive heavens gate cut.Beale13 said:
I think that this is a good summary of the information that we do not have. One other piece is whether the NFL even thinks that ball pressure is important. Is this something they check with regularity? Or ever? How good and precise is the equipment used to check the pressure? Do they account for deflation in cold temperatures or the likelihood that the pressure will change during the course of the game? (For example, the Patriots once played a playoff game when it was 4 degrees out. What were the psis of the balls in that game?) Have they ever re-inflated balls before? Have they ever checked the psi at halftime before?E5 Yaz said:
I was just looking at the game log for that Patriots/Titans playoff game that was played at 4 degrees/-10 windchill. There were 8 punts at an average of 30.5 yards. It occurs to me that they always say that kicking a ball in the cold is like kicking a block of ice or some such, but wouldn't the crappy punting also be attributable to major ball deflation? And doesn't that make Vinatieri's 46 yard field goal to win that game almost as amazing as his game-tying SnowBowl kick? (The other FGA attempts in that game were a missed 44 yarder by Vinatieri and a 31 yard attempt by Gary Anderson that was blocked).
You're not listing a huge factor. Everybody is so focused on what the balls were measured at "at halftime" for both sides as if it is possible to test all 24 balls at once simultaneously.E5 Yaz said:
We would also need to know the temperature of the new environment (refs locker room) and how long each ball had been in the new environment when tested. As DDB's dry home test showed the balls regained half their lost psi in just 4 minutes.
Edit: perhaps this is included in your "chain of evidence"
DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Obviously there's more speculation on this issue than fact. Nobody here would disagree with that. But to go from there to your position is just willful blindness.
@mtaibbi thanks Matt! Really appreciate that. It's a fairly connected firm, it seems. Your insight would be great on this stuff, btw
— Tom E. Curran (@tomecurran) February 22, 2015
Would be interesting to see Taibbi do a long form piece on the League office, using this story as a lead in.
— Tom E. Curran (@tomecurran) February 22, 2015
Would be interesting to see Taibbi do a long form piece on the League office, using this story as a lead in.
No, I am just choosing not to speculate based on a very limited set of information. That isn't willful blindness at all but a rational approach given how few important facts are available about this whole "story". Feel free to continue assuming and speculating if that is working for you.Kull said:
DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
No, you are claiming that "we don't really know anything". Thus we don't know, for example, that there is a Wells investigation focused on deflated footballs. In your world, there are zero facts. It is 100% speculatiion.
Kull said:
Please post where I claimed there was no Wells investigation. And we should stop posting because neither you nor I are adding anything here.
Fantastic, something we can agree on. So let's look at some actual facts for a change. The NFL rules governing the footballs are surprisingly sparse - just two paragraphs each for "Ball Dimensions" and "Ball Supply". The latter is also oddly specific in some cases and has gaps in others. Let's break it down:
http://static.nfl.com/static/content/public/image/rulebook/pdfs/5_2013_Ball.pdf
1) Each team will make 12 primary balls available for testing by the Referee two hours and 15 minutes prior to the starting time of
the game to meet League requirements: Seems oddly specific on first read, but clearly the intent is that the balls must be in place so the referee can begin testing them 2:15 before game start.
2) The home team will also make 12 backup balls available for testing in all stadiums: This one is pretty clear. Home team has to supply 24 balls regardless. What's not clear is what's done with the back-up balls. Probably not part of the game day rotation (otherwise why not just say "will supply 24"), but no comment on where they are kept otherwise.
3) In addition, the visitors, at their discretion, may bring 12 backup balls to be tested by the Referee for games held in outdoor stadiums: Interesting. Note that it's discretionary (i.e the visitors never have to arrive with more than 12 balls, regardless). Also, it's a rule that recognizes the environment in outdoor stadiums can have an impact on game balls, presumably cold, wet, mud, etc. And if the visitors showed up with 12 extras for an indoor stadium, presumably those would be disallowed? That has an interesting impact as we go further.
4) For all games, eight new footballs, sealed in a special box and shipped by the manufacturer to the Referee, will be opened in the officials’ locker room two hours and 15 minutes prior to the starting time of the game. These balls are to be specially marked by the Referee and used exclusively for the kicking game: Pretty high degree of control over the kicking balls.
5) In the event a home team ball does not conform to specifications, or its supply is exhausted, the Referee shall secure a proper ball from the visitors and, failing that, use the best available ball: Now it gets interesting:
- First of all, please note there is NO PROVISION for the "visitor team ball" not meeting specification. Thus if the Patriots balls were underinflated during the regular season Colts game, there is no remedy specified in the rules. Amazing.
- Also, the visitors are only required to have 12 balls available, so this "fix" can potentially penalize the visitors by reducing the number of balls in their rotation.
- As worded, there's not a requirement to "exhaust the supply" before taking a ball from the visitors. Although it's still an option. One of the big unknowns in Deflategate surrounds the status of the 12 alternate Patriots balls. Were they ever tested? Were they part of the halftime pressure testing exercise? Why weren't they used as the "first choice" replacements? (which would seem to be the remedy most in line with the actual NFL rules)
- Reinflation is not specifically called out anywhere, other than perhaps via the "best available ball" clause. And even that is only supposed to occur after taking balls from the visitors.
6) Any such circumstances must be reported to the Commissioner: By rule, a report would have to be filed with the commissioner after the Colts playoff game. Interesting to consider whether that was done before the media firestorm and the resulting Wells investigation. If so, there might be discrepancies between Kensil's written report and the facts turned up by Wells. Just speculation, of course.
7) In case of rain or a wet, muddy, or slippery field, a playable ball shall be used at the request of the offensive team’s center. The Game Clock shall not stop for such action (unless undue delay occurs): It seems kind of odd that only the Center can officially request a "playable" ball. Not the QB, Coach, or even the Referee, apparently. And even then, only the field is "wet, muddy, or slippery". If the field is none of those but the temperature is 12 below zero and the ball is a frozen rock? Per the rules, too bad.
8) Note: It is the responsibility of the home team to furnish playable balls at all times by attendants from either side of the playing field: Pretty sure this means the home team is responsible for handling the balls of both the home and visiting teams. So if the Colts had questions about the Pats balls during the regular season game, it was their employees who handled them the whole time.
And that's it. The sum total of all rules applying to ball handling. Section one - not described in detail here - is where things like air pressure are covered.
http://static.nfl.com/static/content/public/image/rulebook/pdfs/5_2013_Ball.pdf
1) Each team will make 12 primary balls available for testing by the Referee two hours and 15 minutes prior to the starting time of
the game to meet League requirements: Seems oddly specific on first read, but clearly the intent is that the balls must be in place so the referee can begin testing them 2:15 before game start.
2) The home team will also make 12 backup balls available for testing in all stadiums: This one is pretty clear. Home team has to supply 24 balls regardless. What's not clear is what's done with the back-up balls. Probably not part of the game day rotation (otherwise why not just say "will supply 24"), but no comment on where they are kept otherwise.
3) In addition, the visitors, at their discretion, may bring 12 backup balls to be tested by the Referee for games held in outdoor stadiums: Interesting. Note that it's discretionary (i.e the visitors never have to arrive with more than 12 balls, regardless). Also, it's a rule that recognizes the environment in outdoor stadiums can have an impact on game balls, presumably cold, wet, mud, etc. And if the visitors showed up with 12 extras for an indoor stadium, presumably those would be disallowed? That has an interesting impact as we go further.
4) For all games, eight new footballs, sealed in a special box and shipped by the manufacturer to the Referee, will be opened in the officials’ locker room two hours and 15 minutes prior to the starting time of the game. These balls are to be specially marked by the Referee and used exclusively for the kicking game: Pretty high degree of control over the kicking balls.
5) In the event a home team ball does not conform to specifications, or its supply is exhausted, the Referee shall secure a proper ball from the visitors and, failing that, use the best available ball: Now it gets interesting:
- First of all, please note there is NO PROVISION for the "visitor team ball" not meeting specification. Thus if the Patriots balls were underinflated during the regular season Colts game, there is no remedy specified in the rules. Amazing.
- Also, the visitors are only required to have 12 balls available, so this "fix" can potentially penalize the visitors by reducing the number of balls in their rotation.
- As worded, there's not a requirement to "exhaust the supply" before taking a ball from the visitors. Although it's still an option. One of the big unknowns in Deflategate surrounds the status of the 12 alternate Patriots balls. Were they ever tested? Were they part of the halftime pressure testing exercise? Why weren't they used as the "first choice" replacements? (which would seem to be the remedy most in line with the actual NFL rules)
- Reinflation is not specifically called out anywhere, other than perhaps via the "best available ball" clause. And even that is only supposed to occur after taking balls from the visitors.
6) Any such circumstances must be reported to the Commissioner: By rule, a report would have to be filed with the commissioner after the Colts playoff game. Interesting to consider whether that was done before the media firestorm and the resulting Wells investigation. If so, there might be discrepancies between Kensil's written report and the facts turned up by Wells. Just speculation, of course.
7) In case of rain or a wet, muddy, or slippery field, a playable ball shall be used at the request of the offensive team’s center. The Game Clock shall not stop for such action (unless undue delay occurs): It seems kind of odd that only the Center can officially request a "playable" ball. Not the QB, Coach, or even the Referee, apparently. And even then, only the field is "wet, muddy, or slippery". If the field is none of those but the temperature is 12 below zero and the ball is a frozen rock? Per the rules, too bad.
8) Note: It is the responsibility of the home team to furnish playable balls at all times by attendants from either side of the playing field: Pretty sure this means the home team is responsible for handling the balls of both the home and visiting teams. So if the Colts had questions about the Pats balls during the regular season game, it was their employees who handled them the whole time.
And that's it. The sum total of all rules applying to ball handling. Section one - not described in detail here - is where things like air pressure are covered.
I12XU said:
Bullshit. DeJesus is clearly being sarcastic in response to an article that was linked to regarding the "history" of the Patriots cheating. on top of that, it was the second such post made that same day in the same tone.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/88102-the-patriots-balls-this-is-the-thread-that-does-not-end-it-goes-on-and-on-my-friend/?p=5855438
Pulling that quote out of context and plastering as proof of anything is garbage, and you need to be called out on it
It's an interesting hypothesis. One technical point, though. The ball is not "deflated" in colder weather. It has the same amount of air as any ball filled to the same psi at room temperature. It's just that the molecules are moving realtively more slowly, which decreases the psi. Maybe this is the same effect for kickers. But I'm not sure. In other words, you can imagine two balls at 10 psi on a gauge. One has lots of air but is in cold teperatures. One has less air but is in warmer temeratures. Are they the same to kick? Maybe psi is all that matters, but I'm not sure.snowmanny said:
Huh?Devizier said:
Pv=nrt
'N' is an 'amount'.
The point is that at cold temps, the same amount of air molecules exists at a lower pressure than at warm temps (given the same volume, which is somewhat variable with the balls).
Or, as DDB was saying, in order to have the same pressure at different temps, you have to have different amounts. (Again, assuming the vessel is constant).
And if I understand correctly, the /type/ of gas does not matter, as none of those values is directly related to any property of different gasses.
simplyeric said:
I'm pretty sure all that practically matters is the pressure, and I would bet that balls at the same pressure regardless of temp behave very similarly. The only real difference would be that the warmer ball has slightly less air, but the actual weight difference is going to be so small that it seems like it should be negligible.
A warm ball and a cold ball, at the same psi, might be different to kick because of the behavior of the solids involved, not the gasses.DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
The interior membrane and exterior leather might be more or less stiff, for example. I'd assume they'd be more stuff, less elastic, and that even at the same psi the cold ball would feel more 'dead'. But that's a guess.
(I'm leaving out the differences that elasticity would have on volume and pressure).
simplyeric said:
Responding to this statement:
In other words, you can imagine two balls at 10 psi on a gauge. One has lots of air but is in cold teperatures. One has less air but is in warmer temeratures.
P1 = P2
N1 > N2
T2 > T1
edited: wrong quote
Think of it this way -- when a confined gas, like in a football, loses temperature, it also loses absolute pressure. The same thing doesn't happen to atmospheric pressure because it's not confined. So the change in the *difference* in pressure when both sides gets cold makes the ball feel under-inflated, or softer.
It's like if you take an empty plastic water bottle at room temperature, put the cap on, and take it outside in the cold. It'll crumple because the pressure inside drops when it gets cold, and the atmospheric pressure outside remains the same, pushing on the outside of the bottle and collapsing it. The effect is a little bit different with a football because the pressure inside is so much higher than atmospheric pressure. So when the internal pressure drops, the ball doesn't collapse because it's internal pressure is still much higher than the atmosphere's. But it'll feel a little softer and have less bounce to it.
It's an interesting question whether a cold ball at 13 PSI will have the same bounce as a 13 PSI ball at 80F. The elasticity of an inflated ball, which determines how bouncy it is, is at least mostly due to the difference in pressure between the inside and outside. When the ball is struck, the air inside the ball is momentarily compressed due to the force of the kick, then quickly springs back to equilibrium, causing it to bounce. The increased number of molecules inside a cold ball at the same PSI might have a small effect. And, as simplyeric mentioned, the outer leather and membranes would behave differently as well.
It's really a moot point because NFL balls are (allegedly) inflated to between 12.5 and 13.5 at room temperature. So kickers kicking a ball in a 0F game are kicking balls well below 13 PSI.
It's like if you take an empty plastic water bottle at room temperature, put the cap on, and take it outside in the cold. It'll crumple because the pressure inside drops when it gets cold, and the atmospheric pressure outside remains the same, pushing on the outside of the bottle and collapsing it. The effect is a little bit different with a football because the pressure inside is so much higher than atmospheric pressure. So when the internal pressure drops, the ball doesn't collapse because it's internal pressure is still much higher than the atmosphere's. But it'll feel a little softer and have less bounce to it.
It's an interesting question whether a cold ball at 13 PSI will have the same bounce as a 13 PSI ball at 80F. The elasticity of an inflated ball, which determines how bouncy it is, is at least mostly due to the difference in pressure between the inside and outside. When the ball is struck, the air inside the ball is momentarily compressed due to the force of the kick, then quickly springs back to equilibrium, causing it to bounce. The increased number of molecules inside a cold ball at the same PSI might have a small effect. And, as simplyeric mentioned, the outer leather and membranes would behave differently as well.
It's really a moot point because NFL balls are (allegedly) inflated to between 12.5 and 13.5 at room temperature. So kickers kicking a ball in a 0F game are kicking balls well below 13 PSI.
I think we're all saying the same thing, but misinterpreting each other.
Except I don't think the type of gas matters.
Except I don't think the type of gas matters.
League not saying if investigation includes whether Colts deflated football http://t.co/jiL10dTYn3
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) February 23, 2015
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) February 23, 2015
I think the warmer ball would be an incrementally more elastic vessel, so the volume would vary more.veritas said:
If I understand correctly, a very cold ball would be a smaller volume at 13.5 psi than a quite warm ball.
(That is to say, that the 'Ideal' part of the ideal gas law is confounded by having two variables: temperature /and/ volume).
That would compound the lack of 'bounce' in the cold ball.
I think.
(Unless the membrane could become so rigid as to act like, say, a ping pong ball. But that's not happening here)
Hoya81 said:
They're also not saying if they're investigating aliens. Or Obama. I've never particularly disliked Florio, but he's really been creepy and obsessive with this whole story.
The discussion is a bit past my ability to understand. I guess I was just making three points.
1. Deflate is a bit of a misnomer to the extent people are using it as a synonym for having less air. Indeed, "deflate-gate" is pejorative or suggests guilt because it implies that air came out of the balls.
2. I have no idea whether kickers prefer a higher or lesser psi. It may vary by kicker. It may depend on what you're looking for -- accuracy, or loft, or distance.
3. I have no idea whether, from a kicker's perspective, all balls of the same psi are the same.
All that said, a key fact we've learned as part of this thing -- that a ball filled to 12.5 in a locker room -- can be played at a much lower psi when its cold may very well affect kicking stats one way or the other (and common sense would suggest much more so than the passing or running game).
1. Deflate is a bit of a misnomer to the extent people are using it as a synonym for having less air. Indeed, "deflate-gate" is pejorative or suggests guilt because it implies that air came out of the balls.
2. I have no idea whether kickers prefer a higher or lesser psi. It may vary by kicker. It may depend on what you're looking for -- accuracy, or loft, or distance.
3. I have no idea whether, from a kicker's perspective, all balls of the same psi are the same.
All that said, a key fact we've learned as part of this thing -- that a ball filled to 12.5 in a locker room -- can be played at a much lower psi when its cold may very well affect kicking stats one way or the other (and common sense would suggest much more so than the passing or running game).
Gases tend to deviate from the ideal gas law as they approach a phase transition (e.g., condensation). So the type of gas would matter in that air with a high relative humidity would behave differently from dry air when undergoing a temperature shift from room temp to a much colder temperature. I don't know how big the effect is, but it's not nothing. The humid air would lose more pressure due to the condensation.simplyeric said:
March 20, I'd guess. That is during March Madness, which minimizes coverage. That is also the week before the owners' meetings, which means the resolution won't hang over those meetings. I'd bet the decisions on the Browns, Jets, Falcons and Ballghazi all get dumped together in that same release to minimize the press cycle about each.soxhop411 said:
True, I did also leave out any phase state transitions, and that came up several (dozen) pages ago, where the condensation would cause the mathematical equivalent of evaporative cooling, because it would serve to reduce the 'n' variable. We never really fleshed out the magnitude of that.Kevin Youkulele said:
But, yes, while condensation would yet again confuse the ideal gas law (because now we have temp, volume, and 'n' all varying at the same time), without the phase state issue, the ideal gas law doesn't depend on the type of gas.
Miss Lo Psi?canvass ali said:
BTW anagrams are a great way to artificially inflate this thread, IMO.
Deflategate:
Data Left? Gee.....
Get Feel, A tad.
Roger Goodell:
Go Roll, Red Ego!
Ledger, or Logo?
Google "Err" - Lo! :buddy:
God Ego Roller.
And just for S & G:
Peter King:
Get Pen, Irk.
Florio once again throwing out the Colts "deflating" theory last night, which no one really takes seriously. The reason why one ball is "so much" lighter than the others is probably due to the fact that the ball that the Colts intercepted was probably measured first, and the others were measured a bit later, giving time for the air pressure equalization.
soxhop411 said:
Yep, it'll be a Ray Rice style 4pm on a Friday before a long weekend release.