Guardians vs. Yankees ALDS Thread

E5 Yaz

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Have they said who the starting pitcher will be for the Guardians tomorrow?
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Civale has been good – ignore his season stats, he was a complete wreck at the beginning of the season and a couple of IL stints kept him from ever getting his ERA down to the level he pitched at for most of the year. He put up a 3.24 ERA in his last 14 starts. He's really a "twice through the lineup" guy, but even if he's pitching great, they wouldn't ask anything more than that in Game #5 anyway.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I just have no confidence that the Guardians can score enough runs to win. The lineup is pretty inept. Think they will need another .484 BABIP like on Saturday to pull this off.
 

BigSoxFan

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Such a Cleveland sports day. Get smoked by the Pats/Belichick and then follow it up with a loss to the Yankees.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Such a Cleveland sports day. Get smoked by the Pats/Belichick and then follow it up with a loss to the Yankees.
There are no Browns fans in this thread that I know of… we hear enough about that organization of frauds and felons in the Cleveland media when they should be focused on the Guardians. I hope the Browns go 0-15-2 every season (I still wouldn't want to make Steelers fans happy).
 

Deweys New Stance

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Pouring here outside of NYC right now, and the forecast for tonight is for more rain. Doesn’t look good for getting this in. ALCS set to start on Wednesday in Houston. That’s going to be brutal for whoever survives.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Naylor has been a positive at first base this year, but since his leg has forced him to DH, the options in the field are either Owen Miller or Gabriel Arias, neither of whom is a first baseman (although Miller has regulary played there against lefties this year). Francona gave Arias a shot at it Saturday night, he played well and so Tito stuck with him. Arias is a SS/2B who got off to a rough start in AAA this season and then broke his hand. He hit well in the second half and is a top 100 prospect. The problem is that he has zero plate discipline, so he was probably the worst player to have at the plate in Cole's last inning… he showed him 5-6 pitches that weren't in the strike zone and then surprised him with the fastball right over the plate.

It usually takes money to have an above average hitter at every single position, so that's not likely to happen in Cleveland. The two spots in the lineup where the Guardians haven't been able to put at least an average bat are catcher and center field. Austin Hedges is useless with a bat, but that's pretty typical of catchers. Luke Maile is probably at least an average hitting catcher when he gets regular at-bats, but they lean towards Hedges' work with the pitching staff. I don't see them re-signing Hedges though, so we'll see how Bo Naylor's bat translates to the majors next year – he will at least draw walks. Myles Straw is one the least likely guys in baseball to get an extra-base hit, but he was one of the hottest hitters on the team down the stretch with a .330 average over his last 28 games.

Cleveland doesn't have much of a bench, except athletic rookies with very little experience. They really could have benefited by picking up a veteran bat at the deadline – particularly a right-hander – to DH/PH. Down the stretch they used the DH spot to give fielders a bit of a break or play a hot hand. Will Brennan was their best shot and carrying that over to the post season, but he had all of 11 games in his major league career. The real problem is that they entered the season with a full-time DH who hit 30 home runs last year, but then Franmil Reyes hit so badly this year that he got himself DFA'd. I think Oscar Gonzalez will be the DH by the end of 2023 after George Valera reaches Cleveland.
 

brs3

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Pouring here outside of NYC right now, and the forecast for tonight is for more rain. Doesn’t look good for getting this in. ALCS set to start on Wednesday in Houston. That’s going to be brutal for whoever survives.
Sun is shining Queens at the moment. Hourly report shows some passing showers, but I would be surprised if it was called.
 

Deweys New Stance

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Sun is shining Queens at the moment. Hourly report shows some passing showers, but I would be surprised if it was called.
Yeah the sun just came out here in Southern CT. Took a closer look at the NYC forecast and it’s definitely going to rain some between 6-10PM, but it likely won’t be heavy or steady. I would agree that if that’s the case they’ll definitely play tonight, but the playing conditions might be sloppy.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Naylor has been a positive at first base this year, but since his leg has forced him to DH, the options in the field are either Owen Miller or Gabriel Arias, neither of whom is a first baseman (although Miller has regulary played there against lefties this year). Francona gave Arias a shot at it Saturday night, he played well and so Tito stuck with him. Arias is a SS/2B who got off to a rough start in AAA this season and then broke his hand. He hit well in the second half and is a top 100 prospect. The problem is that he has zero plate discipline, so he was probably the worst player to have at the plate in Cole's last inning… he showed him 5-6 pitches that weren't in the strike zone and then surprised him with the fastball right over the plate.

It usually takes money to have an above average hitter at every single position, so that's not likely to happen in Cleveland. The two spots in the lineup where the Guardians haven't been able to put at least an average bat are catcher and center field. Austin Hedges is useless with a bat, but that's pretty typical of catchers. Luke Maile is probably at least an average hitting catcher when he gets regular at-bats, but they lean towards Hedges' work with the pitching staff. I don't see them re-signing Hedges though, so we'll see how Bo Naylor's bat translates to the majors next year – he will at least draw walks. Myles Straw is one the least likely guys in baseball to get an extra-base hit, but he was one of the hottest hitters on the team down the stretch with a .330 average over his last 28 games.

Cleveland doesn't have much of a bench, except athletic rookies with very little experience. They really could have benefited by picking up a veteran bat at the deadline – particularly a right-hander – to DH/PH. Down the stretch they used the DH spot to give fielders a bit of a break or play a hot hand. Will Brennan was their best shot and carrying that over to the post season, but he had all of 11 games in his major league career. The real problem is that they entered the season with a full-time DH who hit 30 home runs last year, but then Franmil Reyes hit so badly this year that he got himself DFA'd. I think Oscar Gonzalez will be the DH by the end of 2023 after George Valera reaches Cleveland.
Cleveland seems like a team who really could have benefited by trading for a guy like JD Martinez at the deadline. Hopefully they can win tonight anyways!
 

jon abbey

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Cleveland seems like a team who really could have benefited by trading for a guy like JD Martinez at the deadline. Hopefully they can win tonight anyways!
They were just 53-50 at the deadline, presumably not really thinking about trading for a rental DH.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They were just 53-50 at the deadline, presumably not really thinking about trading for a rental DH.
Oh totally fair, my post was completely with the benefit of hindsight. Sox trading JD to Cleveland at the deadline would have been peculiar for a variety of reasons.

Guardians are a pretty interesting team; not much power, starting pitchers who don’t strike our many, killer pen, run a lot…probably the model for how a low budget team can succeed.
 

Trlicek's Whip

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Oh totally fair, my post was completely with the benefit of hindsight. Sox trading JD to Cleveland at the deadline would have been peculiar for a variety of reasons.

Guardians are a pretty interesting team; not much power, starting pitchers who don’t strike out many, killer pen, run a lot…probably the model for how a low budget team can succeed.
Is 714 strikeouts across their 5 primary starters (more than half their season K's as a team) bad? Bieber, McKenzie, and Civale were one-strikeout-per-inning guys (three more guys than the Sox had in their rotation).

I watched oodles of KC games and the 2022 Indians are a lot like the Royals' possible best case scenario in a lot of ways. Lots of rookies that got lots of AB's and had to level up sooner than expected; lower HR numbers and better speed, CF's whose glove and range are better than their bats.

But the Royals didn't have consistent SP and had a subpar bullpen, and terrible defense. They also didn't have any one guy carrying the team ever during the season the way Jose Ramirez did in the first half especially for CLE. Not remotely saying they're the same teams on paper, but they seemed to have similar construction/philosophies in 2022, with different outcomes.
 
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jon abbey

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It's not much of a sample size but the division you play in is such an important part of your results. Dropping out all games against AL East and AL Central teams, regular season records this year:

BOS: 34-19
CLE: 30-24

CLE were 45-41 in non-division games this year regular season, 4-2 so far in the postseason.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Cleveland was .500 against teams with winning records this year. Oddly enough, they pitched better against winning teams. They also had identical records on the road and at home. Both good signs that they should have been taken more seriously than they have been.

I don't really think of them as a rotation that doesn't strike guys out. Any team would be happy to have the K-rates at the top of the rotation that Bieber and McKenzie give them. McKenzie's curve is one the hardest pitches to hit in the majors. Civale isn't a power pitcher, but has a similar K-rate by mastering spin rates. Quantrill and Plesac pitch to contact, but there's little to no chance Plesac will still be around next year. They have a plethora of potential rotation candidates who got their feet wet this year, and that factory exists so that they don't have to pay arbitration prices to mediocre jackasses like Plesac. Whether he's a big success or not, Cody Morris will have a significantly higher K-rate and probably gets the first chance.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah, I guess it’s really only Quantrill that doesn’t get a lot of K’s, among their top pitchers, they are firmly middle of the pack in K’s, so I will retract that statement :)