I think PKB's point is that your 4A would be a stupid risk where the risk is not worth the gain.
Kyrie Irving traded to Celtics for IT, Crowder, Zizic, BKN 1st, 2020 2nd
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I loved what IT did here, but I don't want him on the team this year if his hip is as bad as it seems. His contract status means nothing to me as they're moving on. If they can get Irving off the Cavs and the Cavs don't get a player back who can replicate what Kyrie did the Celtics come out of the deal as the better team both short and long term. Cleveland could cash in the Nets pick but if LBJ is leaving why do that?
Some of you are downplaying how disastrous a broken trade would be. None of these guys can play for their prior teams - the media circus alone would be a massive distraction. This deal has to be amended.
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Celtics longer term too. They won't have the opportunity to go over the cap to add a star if they let IT go. They obviously can if Kyrie is here.
Yes, but they'll have Brooklyn's pick, Zizic, and whatever asset they can get for Crowder.
Well, Isaiah isn't playing regardless so it's really just Crowder since Zizic won't rock the boat at all. The bigger issue for the Celtics would be what the hell they would do at the PG spot. Starting Smart or Rozier would be far from ideal. I think you're right that it'll ultimately get done. Too painful for both sides not to complete this.
Why can't Zizic play for the Celtics?
Remember how disastrous 2004 turned out for the Red Sox with Manny after the ARod deal collapsed?
I don't buy it.
And still be farther away from winning a title than if they have Irving plus Lakers pick. Crowder by himself isn't worth more than a pick in the 20s.
This is idiotic. A decision IT made in June impacts a trade negotiated in late August?
And how many guys are going to get surgery when they need to play for a contract?
Ainge is diabolical. He made the trade knowing Thomas would flunk the physical, but he would ruin Cleveland's leverage in trading Kyrie in the process.
Maybe there's an "offer" from another team that may be a lesser package than received from the C's, but that involves a player LeBron has more desire to play with
I read that as saying that the decision by IT4 not to have surgery in June meant that it becomes harder to evaluate his recovery timeline, and that CLE's doctors on examining him put his timeline much later than expected.
That makes sense to me, doctors look at surgical repair, and they have a good idea of how the healing is going and know that the issue is "fixed" looking at someone who hasn't had a surgery leads to more concerns about whether the issue is going to heal, what timeline.. if it will need surgery eventually etc.
Going to baseball for example, Tommy John is Tommy John, it's pretty easy to assess how a guy's recovery from Tommy John is going compared to the many other guys who have it. Evaluating a guy who decides not to have Tommy John for a partial UCL tear is a lot harder and will likely lead to more differences of medical opinion (neither necessarily wrong either since it's all projection).
Edit- one thing on this that makes sense too is that the Celtics already said some things that indicated IT4's timeline was pushed back. At first it was "might be ready for camp" then a slide all the way to Danny now saying he might not be ready for the start of the season.
He doesn't have to be diabolical. Just smart and tough --
Cleveland knew there were questions. And it knew he did not have the surgery.
I rather like the trade but would give nothing more to save it. And I will enjoy the lamentations and s-show if it falls apart. Bron-Bron should be something if it all goes to hell in a hand basket.
I think this is where most of us stand. A rescinded trade means we have twice the chance (Brooklyn, LA pick if it's 2-5) of getting a shot of one of the elites at the top of the 2018 draft. If this puts us in more of a rebuild mode, so be it as we could end up a a very talented and young team after next years draft. At the same time, we might have IT back for the second half of this season, when I'd play him as 6th man, in which case bringing in another decent big would give us an outside shot at the finals this year
Umm, great? That's one team that was likely worse than the Lakers and Nets that would be better than them.
As far as the leverage discussion, people are underplaying the fact that blowing up this deal in this way makes Cleveland an unreliable trading partner and will reduce their ability to get full value. It's not about leverage in future trades, that is only marginally hurt by taking the Celtics out of the equation, it is that any trading partner has to account for the risk that Cleveland does the same thing to them. For example, can Bledsoe pass a physical without some red flag being raised that the Cavs would try to exploit? This is especially true when the things they are leaking as excuses are all things that have been public knowledge for months.
In terms of moving forward if this does fall apart, I don't think this means they have to trade anyone. Neither IT or Crowder had the leverage to demand a trade. IT needs to suit up and earn his next contract. Crowder is locked in for a long time, has no real leverage, and also has given no indication he is hurt by this trade. Players get discussed in trades all the time. How is this being consummated a bridge too far but floating the same names for Butler or George wasn't. Why doesn't Phoenix need to trade Bledsoe because they made it clear he was on the table for Kyrie? These are adults and this is a business. If the trade falls apart, they will get over it and do their jobs. (Note, it is clear IT is upset and this presumably kills any prospect of a long term agreement with him. If he was signed for more than this year, I'd also possibly worry about him sulking through the year if he wasn't traded, but he isn't, and he cannot afford to do that.)
This is silly. We have no idea what the physical showed. They could have thought he was broadly ok with rest and the examination showed his hip held together by a string.
Ainge has had a reputation for squeezing every deal, I doubt many care he's seeing the same back.
Lol it will be interesting to see how fast everyone deletes tweets
They have one, the reported bucks offer imo. Better for now, worse long term.
If they were to take that I'd say they would be BETTER this year and Boston has no point guard stud.
I think ainge adds something to the deal, and I think the Cavs still do it as they are half focused on post LeBron.
If IT4 is done completely then more seems likely but who knows if that is true.
I think by making it so public and everyone run the players out of town to feel good about the deal the leverage is all Cavs to be honest. Assuming the bucks and so on deals are real.
The Celtics have a big issue if they can't close. They have a huge problem on the roster and the guy Ainge finally pushes the chips in for, falls through and they are in that ALMOST GOT HIM again.
The Cavs? Kyrie already wanted out and had fallen completely out with the team. It's no different. The Celtics went all in, and the action has hurt them from a player viewpoint for it to collapse would be negative plus they lose an asset as IT4 would be worthless.
LS: IT4 already seemed worthless until he stepped on the court, which is the cause of my confusion as to why this is such a big deal. Yes Ainge pushed a few of his chips in, but he'd get those chips back, so how is it a particularily big negative? When you talk about a "huge problem on the roster" for the Celtics, you are also describing 28 other teams, so in what regard do you mean a "huge problem"? Also, they got two of the guys they went fishing for so it's not like they're 0 for 50 or something. Got Horford, Hayward; didn't get Durant; passed on deals for Butler and George.
The simplest (hence most likely) explanation is that it's been a few weeks since IT's last physical, and Ainge knew there was a small probability that the Cleveland physical would turn out a longer than expected recovery time for Thomas (could be several weeks; could be a year; noone on the outside really knows anything, to be honest). So, Ainge had a contingency in place, and is ready to discuss with Altman if needed, knowing that scuttling the trade altogether will be less than ideal for either side.
If a team was truly whispering, and the Cavs then turn around and trade Kyrie to another team, the Celtics would have standing to file a grievance, and there is a nonzero probability the whisper trade gets blocked by the league. There is no certainty that the Cavs would somehow get a magically better offer from the Bucks (who do not have the draft capital that the Celtics have) or any other team. And Altman's reputation would take a hit around the league.
The only bright lining if the trade is scrapped is that the key piece of this trade remains the Brooklyn pick, and the value of that asset remains unchanged. There is, of course, risk that the value of that pick decreases once the regular season starts to play out, so I don't see Ainge walking away unless Cleveland demands something outrageous.
If a team was truly whispering, and the Cavs then turn around and trade Kyrie to another team, the Celtics would have standing to file a grievance, and there is a nonzero probability the whisper trade gets blocked by the league. There is no certainty that the Cavs would somehow get a magically better offer from the Bucks (who do not have the draft capital that the Celtics have) or any other team. And Altman's reputation would take a hit around the league.
The only bright lining if the trade is scrapped is that the key piece of this trade remains the Brooklyn pick, and the value of that asset remains unchanged. There is, of course, risk that the value of that pick decreases once the regular season starts to play out, so I don't see Ainge walking away unless Cleveland demands something outrageous.
Butler (young players plus picks) or George (one year deal) would have been much more all-in type moves.
I'd be fine with a 2nd rounder or two. Cleveland has to save some face if IT isn't going to ever be the same guy again. Knowing what we know now, this trade likely makes the Celtics favorites in the East for the foreseeable future. That's a different trade than the one in which IT would be hurt for a few months but be ready for the playoffs.
Does LBJ have a no-trade clause? If not, and the Cavs complete some version of this deal, don't they pretty much have to trade him somewhere? EDIT: he has one, but that conversation would almost certainly start with him if all the Cavs are getting back that can help this year is Jae Crowder.
I think it's pretty apparent that the Cavs and LBJ had different goals in this trade. For the Cavs the centerpiece of the deal is the the pick, with Crowder, Zizic and IT's expiring contract as extra value. For LBJ, it's the star player they get back, and if IT is done he's playing out the string before walking next summer.
IT4 was not worthless until he stepped on court. That's ridiculous. There was risk he would not be the same or would get reinjured. That is not the same as structural damage today.
It's a big negative if IT4 is structurally damaged Vs not. I mean duh.
If the deal falls down because IT4 is done you don't see why that would be a problem for a team potentially competing to make the finals? They have a huge problem in that they traded Bradley and their primary instigating guard is done. They don't have a replacement. So they either HAVE to make the move or give the conference to the Cavs
What on earth does the Celts losing their best player last year for nothing have to do with 28 other teams.
The hoops you guys jump through is insane. If people talked this level of utter nonsense on the main board they would be run out of town. Why on earth is utter bullshit tolerated in other boards.
I wish we held the same standards, we would mock people for flip flopping views on things based purely on trades, we'd destroy them for flipping back if cancelled.
We'd also be totally dismissive of people ignoring all stats for eye test, but here it's fine.
The argument that the trade falling through due to a good player being hurt badly isn't a big deal is ridiculous. Be embarrassed. The celtics are worse off of the trade falls through and they have no lead guard.
So, what, they take fifty cents on the dollar and trade LBJ to the Lakers? No one is going to trade anything valuable for him because they know he'll be gone in a year. And even the Lakers might not deal for him until they get a ruling on their tampering case - if they can't go after George, it makes their instant rebuild a lot tougher and maybe LBJ decides to go to the Clippers.
You're the guy who said that the trade was terrible for the Celtics and now you're the guy who is saying it's terrible for the Celtics if the trade is called off, so I'm not sure I'm the guy jumping through hoops.
I still think there's absolutely no chance this falls through. The Celtics will give up a middling pick and all will be fine. There's too much to lose for both sides not to get this done.
It doesn't make matters better for Altman if the presumption is "He's so dim witted he didn't pay attention to all the public news stories about the injured guy with the expiring deal having a chronic injury." Because that still means that it's probably not a good idea to trust him in a deal. (Especially in a sport where everyone has some degree of structural damage after their first few years in the game.)
I've been saying the Celtics are worse off both short and long term if this trade falls through.
IT4 having a screwed up hip is/was a very bad thing, but that is no more true today than it was during the ECF. The trade didn't cause the injury, or give us new information about the injury. They need a ball-handler for 2017-18 and needed one for 2018-19 even if IT came back some time this year. None of this is news. I'm guessing they will figure it out by next year.
You understand that Boston announced last season that Thomas had a structurally damaged hip, no? Talk to the many doctors that post here, they explained this back in May when Boston made the labrum damage public. This is why so many of us have said from the beginning that Thomas was largely salary filler in the deal because the variance on a chronic hip injury in a 5'8" guy was too high.
So even if the deal falls through they're literally in the same spot they were before the trade, looking around for a third star to add to Horford/Hayward and in the short term having Rozier carry the ball up court and handing off to Hayward or Smart to manage things from there (a la Rajon Rondo v2008).
Cleveland? They're a tire fire, because no one will trust Altman and with Boston off the board, no one needs to offer up anything remotely valuable anymore. Because there are no more lottery picks to be had.
You should probably be grateful that they don't. Most of us recall your whiplashing on Fultz, which is what DD is mocking you over.
Before the trade fell thru, we were all under the impression that while delayed, he would be back to some form of himself at an early enough date that he would still contribute in a meaningful way to 17-18. So yes, the fact that the acquiring team is worried enough that he might not be, is in fact news. And while you may deny it, there will be bad blood between IT/Crowder and the organization over this, which isn't helping anyone.
As has been noted by myself and others, moving these two guy for someone like Kyrie was one of the few chances they had to add a third cog and work within the salary cap structure; they won't have room to sign another without cutting guys and they won't be able to trade for one without gutting the young assets they've spent so long acquiring.
Going forward, 18-19+, yes they're not in a much different place than a week ago, but thats not a better place than if this trade went through. Two picks are great for next draft, but there's no PGs in that draft, so this essentially kicks the can down the road and presumably wastes Horford's viable years and means Hayward is 30 before the kids mature.
Difference of medical opinion on the degree of injury matters. Ainge said this:
If, after seeing medicals, the Cavs think IT4 may miss the season or be permanently compromised, then I don't think subterfuge on the part of the Cavs should be assumed.
The idea that Altman and the Cavs will somehow be damaged by canceling a deal because a guy fails a physical is ridiculous. Guys fail physicals, when they do the trade gets reversed, it's happened before and it will likely happen again. It happens in every sport.
Also the idea that what you read in the paper or online has any bearing on how NBA teams evaluate players' health is just idiotic, they have access to his medical records which tell them significantly more but not everything, they know everything when they have him in for a physical, it's why the physical is a condition of all deals in all sports. There are degrees to these things, and if the Cavs' doctors say that they think it's much worse than what the Celtics doctors' opinion showed then you fail him on the physical and decide whether to ship him back. That's pretty standard.
Also the idea that what you read in the paper or online has any bearing on how NBA teams evaluate players' health is just idiotic, they have access to his medical records which tell them significantly more but not everything, they know everything when they have him in for a physical, it's why the physical is a condition of all deals in all sports. There are degrees to these things, and if the Cavs' doctors say that they think it's much worse than what the Celtics doctors' opinion showed then you fail him on the physical and decide whether to ship him back. That's pretty standard.
That's fair. The Cavs have every right to back out of the deal. Personally, I was not assuming IT would be able to drop 50 in a playoff game next spring to begin with.
lol. well played.
It seems to me all of these are theoretically possible but not at all likely. Occam's Razor is that everyone knew IT had an injury. Based on IT's willingness to forgo surgery and Ainge's public statements, the assumption was that he could either play PG for the Celtics or for the Cavs and do so effectively. But there's also the fog of rehab and reading x-rays/MRIs/CT scans etc. Everyone saying everyone knew that IT was toast for the season are also saying Ainge was publicly lying and IT was a fool for not undergoing surgery. More likely is that they each had a good faith expectation that IT would be back relatively early in the season and in relatively good form and that the Cavs could expect to have as Lebron's partner a different and arguably more compatible PG than Irving was. When the exams were done it turned out worse for some reason, in a way that isn't completely shocking but neither was it completely predictable.
It's an Occam's Razor explanation that also makes logical sense of everyone's actions.
Yes, but last May they publicly revealed that it was a torn labrum and going to be an issue going forward. And after the draft they were pretty public that Thomas hadn't been given clearance for basketball related activities and every story since has reiterated that it was going to be a problem going forward. It was not some state secret.
It's too bad Hinkie wasn't still running the Sixers, because if Thomas were done for the year he'd be on the phone to acquire the Lakers pick & Thomas in exchange for Fultz.
Sure, but nowhere near the magnitude of this deal. This isn't Bryan Stork or Matt Bullard, this is the future of two franchises.
IT would be welcomed back by the fans in Boston, Kyrie can't be in the same room with LeBrom at this point. The Cavs have far more motivation for figuring this out.
Doncic is a point guard.
Smart and Rozier are also point guards, and Hayward can play point forward, so it's not like they lack ball handlers if the deal falls through and IT walks in a year. You also don't need an elite PG to win, just elite talent. Not acquiring Irving hurts there, but he's not an MVP level guy, so an unprotected pick from one of the five worst teams in the league in a loaded at the top draft is already fair value.
I don't think that even DrewDawg is saying both of those in jest. Several of the doctors that post here told us last May that the injury as announced by Boston was a chronic one. It meant that Thomas had arthritis of the hip.
That puts a crimp in a player's quickness, can't be helped. And when you're a 5'8" guy that loss of quickness can be lethal. Just from the public pronouncements Cleveland knew that the former MVP candidate was gone for good. They were trading for damaged goods which is why they got a lottery pick attached to Crowder and Zizic in the return on Irving.
If that's not enough now I hope Boston tells them to go pound sand. They can always package Crowder and filler for someone making $13 million and keep their options open later in the year.
Of course it wasn't a state secret. But Ainge's comments suggested IT4 will return this season. The "there's gonna be probably a little bit of a delay" makes it sound early in the season too. Do you think Ainge was telling the Cavs different in private?
I think they'll work it out, but the idea that the Cavs should have known better and are just being shady is weird to me.
The Cavs have two agendas: they have to find a way to add a key piece for the post-Lebron era, but they also need to be a contender this year. If they are paying Thomas but he doesn't give them anything it is going to be really hard for them to contend. And adding an extra late first round pick does nothing to change that.
If I were the GM of the Cavs I would demand Smart and Rozier instead of Thomas. Assuming that Thomas really is so badly injured that his ability to play effectively next year is in doubt, of course.
The Cavs are a clown show organization, which is why people are less willing to give them the benefit of the doubt here. Comic sans font not available.
So is Collin Sexton. And if Brooklyn really is atrocious this year (if Lin gets injured, Lavert gets injured, etc.) they could even talk to the Mavs about Dennis Smith Jr., since Dallas might like a top five pick this year, even if it does cost them their PG of the future.
Tatum is also a pretty good passer, won't help them this year, but next that front court of theirs is going to move the ball well.
Doncic is a 6'8" SG that's 18 years old and will likely grow a few more inches. He's not a PG for the future. And while you're right you don't need an elite PG to win, you're also right that you need elite talent and Irving is elite talent, whether he's an MVP candidate or not (and as much as many want to argue it, the jury is still out on that; no one would have thought of Harden as an MVP contender before last season and he's got 3 years on Irving). Smart and Rozier are not contending club starting PGs.
I will definitely retract using the term "fucked" as it was hyperbolic, but they're much better off with this deal going through, for many reasons. Both short and long term.
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