Miami Heat: Pat Riley's Grease Fire

Devizier

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Cleveland's trading prowess depends on a few factors
 
1) When does Wiggins' contract kick in, and at what price? Looks like it will be close to $6M AAV in any case.
2) Does Cleveland get a fresh TPE for the Jack trade? 
 

kazuneko

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
There are lots of rumors (along with the LeBron rumors) that there is already a deal in place. The question is whether a package of Wiggins plus Bennett plus picks is enough for Love. I dont think the Cavs can take Martin on either.
You really think they would need to include picks or that any package that includes Wiggins wouldn't be enough? I can't imagine at the beginning of this offseason Minnesota could have hoped for any player with the potential of Wiggins coming back in a return for Love. That deal is a slam dunk for Minnesota and I there is no way  that Cleveland would agree to add anything else (other than Bennet - who must be a part of it for salary cap reasons). There have been reports that Cleveland isn't high on that trade, but if LeBron demands it (and he probably should) it will definitely happen (unless Cleveland is stupid enough to value maintaining Wiggins over acquiring LeBron and Love).
 

bowiac

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Also, with reports that Melo is taking his talents to MSG, it suggests that The Return is really happening.
Why?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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kazuneko said:
You really think they would need to include picks or that any package that includes Wiggins wouldn't be enough? I can't imagine at the beginning of this offseason Minnesota could have hoped for any player with the potential of Wiggins coming back in a return for Love. That deal is a slam dunk for Minnesota and I can't imagine  that Cleveland would agree to add anything else (other than Bennet - who must be a part of it for salary cap reasons). There have been reports that Cleveland isn't high on that trade, but if LeBron demands it (and he probably should) it will definitely happen (unless Cleveland is stupid enough to value maintaining Wiggins over acquiring LeBron and Love).
You and Bowiac make a good point. Wiggins and Bennett should be enough for Minnesota. That said we get into the debate about what Saunders plan is for the TWolves. If he has any hope of being relevant soon, maybe it doesn't work. It sounds silly because Wiggins is exactly the type of return that Minnesota should seek for Love. But maybe they dont want to wait another few years to see if a player develops.

On the other hand, Cleveland should do this in a heartbeat if LeBron is returning. It makes too much sense. At this point, even if its great potential, Wiggins is simply a prospect. Love gets the Cavs closer in the near term.
 

kazuneko

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Devizier said:
Cleveland's trading prowess depends on a few factors
 
1) When does Wiggins' contract kick in, and at what price? Looks like it will be close to $6M AAV in any case.
2) Does Cleveland get a fresh TPE for the Jack trade? 
I believe Bennet, Wiggins and assorted junk (Scotty Hopson, Carrick Felix, Mathew Dellavedova etc.) gets the salaries pretty close..
 

kazuneko

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The more you look at what a post-Love trade Cleveland team would look like the more it seems the only way Lebron would choose Miami is either an inability to get over his hatred of Gilbert or his loyalty to the Heat (as if that's ever been a factor). The  Cavs starting 5 would be Irving, Waiters, LeBron, Love and Hawes, with a bench that includes, Tristan Thompson, Anderson Verajao and CJ Miles. That's without even beginning to consider any veteran players who might be interested in joining up for the hope of getting a ring. That's a younger -and at least equally talented- big three and far, far more depth than Miami could ever dream of adding to their roster. That's without even considering things like the three picks the Cavs have in next year's draft (ironically one of which is from Miami) or Haywood's salary cap exception which they can use after next season to fit in another major piece. 
 

DJnVa

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Well it rules out any chance of LeBron and Melo teaming up in Miami or elsewhere.
Sure, but it doesn't mean LBJ is leaving Miami. Now, paired with some new Bosh rumor...
 

DJnVa

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bowiac said:
If this is true, then again, unless Cleveland is just insanely stupid, LeBron is coming back.
The reports I heard were that this deal is contingent on LBJ coming.
 

kazuneko

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bowiac said:
If this is true, then again, unless Cleveland is just insanely stupid, LeBron is coming back.
Yeah, Wiggins for Love is a dumb trade for Cleveland. Wiggins for Love and LeBron might be one of the greatest trades ever. 
 

Devizier

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kazuneko said:
I believe Bennet, Wiggins and assorted junk (Scotty Hopson, Carrick Felix, Mathew Dellavedova etc.) gets the salaries pretty close..
 
In that case, Cleveland should be looking to get at least one of Brewer or Martin in the return, possibly both if Gilbert is really serious about going into tax territory. Those are the kind of role players that the Cavaliers could really use on a James-led team.
 

Tony C

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Nick Kaufman said:
To me Lebron's decision is ultimately driven by two parameters.
 
1. The Miami Heat cannot get better without either significantly cutting Wade's contract or letting him go and replacing him with players that suit Lebron's talent better, like let's say a rim protector and a spot shooter, or even a different superstar like Carmelo Anthony.
 
I think it's highly unlikely that Wade will accept a significant paycut and Lebron can't pressure explicitly for this to happen because... it's not the decent thing to do to a friend/former co-conspirator and because it's going to be a PR disaster. I sense that this is the reason that a certain passive aggressiveness is coming off Lebron's camp. It feels as if he wants Riley to do the dirty work for him, but that won't happen.
 
This leads to Lebron's realization that the better choice for winning is moving elsewhere but:
 
2. Lebron can't go anywhere else but Cleveland because he's going to be branded a mercenary if he chooses a third destination.
 
For these two reasons it seems to me that Lebron is going to end up there, even though the situation is going to be far more from ideal.
 
I think this makes a lot of sense in terms of an overview of how this is playing out. I've been surprised that Phoenix hasn't been more of a contender for LBJ's services, but I suppose the "mercenary" tag has something to do with it. The stuff about LBJ and money is of little interest, but I will say that in the most over-used term of this century LeBron is, indeed, a "brand"...meaning that much more money than his annual salary is at stake in terms of how he is perceived. ugh.
 
 
 
JCizzle said:
Haha I don't like lbj normally, but fuck the heat. This is beautiful. And if he is trolling the shit out of Gilbert, then that's pretty funny too.
 
 
jon abbey said:
 
That would be amazing, especially if he said something like "I really wanted to come back home to Cleveland, but then I realized that that asshole Gilbert still owns the team."
 
I agree. In a basketball sense, the idea of him playing with Irving and Wiggins thrills me. Seeing him with Wade and Bosh and some retreads is a lot less exciting, and that's leaving aside that Wade is both such an asshole and such a shadow of what he once was. Be a blast in a basketball sense to see the Cavs with their cast+LBJ.
 
The one downside is -- while I like the idea of a non-sexy city team (L.A., NY, Miami) getting LeBron (albeit Cleveland's whining has been sort of irritating -- stop blaming the world, it's not our fault you choose to live there) --  I really hate the idea of Gilbert coming out a winner. Talk about the undeserving rich and privileged always getting the breaks....
 

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kazuneko said:
The more you look at what a post-Love trade Cleveland team would look like the more it seems the only way Lebron would choose Miami is either an inability to get over his hatred of Gilbert or his loyalty to the Heat (as if that's ever been a factor). The  Cavs starting 5 would be Irving, Waiters, LeBron, Love and Hawes, with a bench that includes, Tristan Thompson, Anderson Verajao and CJ Miles. That's without even beginning to consider any veteran players who might be interested in joining up for the hope of getting a ring. That's a younger -and at least equally talented- big three and far, far more depth than Miami could ever dream of adding to their roster. That's without even considering things like the three picks the Cavs have in next year's draft (ironically one of which is from Miami) or Haywood's salary cap exception which they can use after next season to fit in another major piece. 
 
Hawes signed with the Clippers, but the rest of your point holds. It's a good situation, but doesn't stink of a team of stars like Miami did.
 

Devizier

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Tony C said:
 
I think this makes a lot of sense in terms of an overview of how this is playing out. I've been surprised that Phoenix hasn't been more of a contender for LBJ's services, but I suppose the "mercenary" tag has something to do with it. 
 
There's also the issue of Phoenix itself. Not exactly a destination city for a young NBA star. Cleveland isn't either, but the hometown/legacy stuff has a lot of pull.
 

Tony C

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Devizier said:
 
There's also the issue of Phoenix itself. Not exactly a destination city for a young NBA star. Cleveland isn't either, but the hometown/legacy stuff has a lot of pull.
 
good point. :)
 

kazuneko

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Tony C said:
 
Hawes signed with the Clippers, but the rest of your point holds. It's a good situation, but doesn't stink of a team of stars like Miami did.
Ahh, hadn't noticed that. Looks like they might  even end up missing Zeller (especially with Verajao's tendency to land on the DL). 
I understand what you mean by a "team of stars" but I think that was more true a few years ago. Wade is not what he once was and is only likely to decline further. I think at this point it may even be true that  Love +Irving > Wade +Bosh.  The fact that Cleveland's roster also includes good young players like Thompson and Waiters really makes it hard for Miami to compete with what Cleveland has to offer. 
 

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LeBron + Love + Irving is a much younger, more complimentary, and arguably more talented version of LeBron + Wade + Bosh. Irving is a much better shooter than Wade, which is a premium skill for playing with LeBron (although he needs to improve his spot up shooting) and Love is a better shooter than Bosh and a much better rebounder (although maybe a worse defender). Far less overlap in skills than the LeBron-Wade-Bosh trio.
 
That should instantly be the best offense in the NBA and is a team that can win the title immediately and for the foreseeable future. 
 
Should be a no-brainer for LeBron/Cleveland. 
 

jon abbey

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Love and Irving are much worse defenders than Bosh and Wade, although the youth is a big advantage for them, obviously. I'd wait to see the rest of the roster before passing judgment, they will need some quality role players as every title contender does. 
 

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'13-'14:
 
Irving + Love: 21 win shares, 46 combined age
Wade + Bosh: 13.5 win shares, 61 combined
 
Add on a year of development for Irving+Love, a LeBron/good team-boost, and then add a year of decline for Wade+Bosh, as well the absence of LeBron, and Irving+Love is probably twice as valuable just next year. Imagine how much more valuable over the next 3-5 years?
 
Again, if this is possible, it's a no-brainer for LeBron.
 

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jon abbey said:
Love and Irving are much worse defenders than Bosh and Wade, although the youth is a big advantage for them, obviously. I'd wait to see the rest of the roster before passing judgment, they will need some quality role players as every title contender does. 
 
Not sure about Bosh-Love (I'd be interested in an analysis of that), and I get that Wade is historically a better defender, but I'm not sure that's true anymore. By the NBA finals, he gave zero effort on defense and couldn't keep anyone in front of him. Would you really bet on Wade being a better defender in the 2015 NBA Finals than Irving being a better defender in the 2015 NBA finals? I wouldn't.
 

bowiac

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jon abbey said:
Love and Irving are much worse defenders than Bosh and Wade, although the youth is a big advantage for them, obviously. I'd wait to see the rest of the roster before passing judgment, they will need some quality role players as every title contender does. 
I think if they get Love, it's about a push in the short term, although as Kyrie improves and Wade declines, a gap will open. For this year, a lot depends on who goes with Wiggins too. Bennett? Thompson? Varejao? Waiters?
 
Something like Kyrie, Waiters, LeBron, Love, Varejao is a weird team. Waiters is pointless, and I feel Love/Varejao are not great complements (only so many rebounds to go around).
 

bowiac

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Mugthis said:
Not sure about Bosh-Love (I'd be interested in an analysis of that), and I get that Wade is historically a better defender, but I'm not sure that's true anymore. By the NBA finals, he gave zero effort on defense and couldn't keep anyone in front of him. Would you really bet on Wade being a better defender in the 2015 NBA Finals than Irving being a better defender in the 2015 NBA finals? I wouldn't.
Yes, I would easily make that bet. Irving looks like one of the worst defenders in the NBA.
 

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bowiac said:
I think if they get Love, it's about a push in the short term, although as Kyrie improves and Wade declines, a gap will open. For this year, a lot depends on who goes with Wiggins too. Bennett? Thompson? Varejao? Waiters?
 
Something like Kyrie, Waiters, LeBron, Love, Varejao is a weird team. Waiters is pointless, and I feel Love/Varejao are not great complements (only so many rebounds to go around).
 
I think Waiters goes in a Love deal, with Brewer or Martin coming back.
 

RedOctober3829

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Ramona Shelburne on ESPN says this meeting(taking place now) is not a farewell one but a part of LBJ's plan to take things slow and meet with everyone involved.
 
Marc Stein: Miami is in a tough position.  The moves Cleveland have made have made an impact on him.  Riley will sell him on his program and whether he wants to go back to Dan Gilbert.  Look at it from a pure basketball perspective Cleveland is the better spot.  Riley will pull on the question whether LeBron is ready to team back up with Dan Gilbert.  Miami is in for a fight it never expected.
 

bowiac

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Mugthis said:
'13-'14:
 
Irving + Love: 21 win shares, 46 combined age
Wade + Bosh: 13.5 win shares, 61 combined
As the counterweight to win shares, I'll throw out RAPM.
 
Irving + Love: 1.51 points/100 possessions better than average.
 
Bosh+Wade: 3.54 points/100 possessions better than average.
 
RAPM is hardly perfect, but it's no worse than win shares, and is useful to consider as well when making these comparisons.
 

Devizier

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Just to throw in another twist, here's 82games' simple ratings:
 
Irving 1.1 + Love 12.8 = 13.9
Wade 5.5 + Bosh 4.4 = 9.9
 
James = 15.2 all by his lonesome in 2014.
 

bowiac

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Fake twitter accounts are in agreement that he's going to Cleveland. For instance, fake Adrian Wojnarowski tweets:
 
@WojiYahooNBA  ·  22m

LeBron has informed Pat Riley he is signing with Cleveland. "Short and to the point" meeting, sources tell Yahoo Sports.

 
 

Kliq

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What is the odds on LeBron being found dead on a Vegas massage table after telling Riley he was leaving?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Kliq said:
What is the odds on LeBron being found dead on a Vegas massage table after telling Riley he was leaving?
 
Zero.  David Stern's right hand (aka Adam Silver) would have Riley's charred corpse buried deep in the Nevada dessert before he would let anything happen to The King.  As a side note, the NBA has done what they set out to do - its now a year-round league.  This forum hasn't been this active this late in the summer since we all watched that embedded youtube of the welcome KG commercial 1.238mm times each back in the day.
 

bowiac

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
 
Zero.  David Stern's right hand (aka Adam Silver) would have Riley's charred corpse buried deep in the Nevada dessert before he would let anything happen to The King.  As a side note, the NBA has done what they set out to do - its now a year-round league.  This forum hasn't been this active this late in the summer since we all watched that embedded youtube of the welcome KG commercial 1.238mm times each back in the day.
Exactly. The constant shuffling of talent that the max contract causes is exactly why the NBA isn't going to get rid of it. NBA free agency is the best free agency in American sports now.
 

RedOctober3829

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The Decision has been made. LeBron James is returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers, a league source tells SheridanHoops.com.
James met with Miami Heat president Pat Riley today in Las Vegas to deliver the news. A contingent of other Heat officials were informed they were not welcome at the meeting, according to a source who spoke on condition of anonymity.
An official announcement will be made on www.lebronjames.com, as I first reported yesterday.
 
http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2014/07/09/sheridans-top-25-free-agents-july-9-edition/#LXusmfEJ11l7DF15.99
 
If Sheridan is wrong, he'll never be believed again.
 

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bowiac said:
Fake twitter accounts are in agreement that he's going to Cleveland. For instance, fake Adrian Wojnarowski tweets:
 
 
What I believe to be the real Chris Sheridan twitter account (but who knows; I don't know anything about twitter) reporting that LeBron is returning to CLE, at least according to a "source."
 
edit:  I'm slow.
 

RedOctober3829

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Brian Windhorst ‏@WindhorstESPN  2m
LeBron James does not have a meeting set with Cavs at this time, sources say.
 
Chris Broussard ‏@Chris_Broussard  2m
Source: LeBron James will not make/announce his decision tonight
 
Ken Berger ‏@KBergCBS  5m
After meeting with Pat Riley, LeBron James has not communicated any decision about his future, person involved in discussions says.
 
Tim Reynolds ‏@ByTimReynolds  4m
There's about five people in the world I trust to tell me things related to LeBron, and two of them insist no decision has been made.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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teddykgb said:
Won't somebody think of Shabazz Napier? He's going to be like the dog one of the couple keeps after they break up.
 
Btw, I nominate this as post of the day in this forum.  Perhaps this entire website...