Mock away, you can mock away

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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This is the highest rated one I've gotten, and happens to also be my favorite. (100% public, Need:A lot, POS: a little only trded when on the clock with a team that expressed interest)
30090
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
20,242
1 trade (admittedly an absurd one) and going BPA early gets me to an 88.7 score from PFF. No way I beat that ever:
30210

For those wondering, the player IND was so desperate to trade up for.... Kristian Fulton.

Edit- actually I bet if I really wanted to I could beat it because I don't think their grading factors in team needs enough, so instead of Sullivan I could have gone with like Logan Wilson.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
48,055
deep inside Guido territory
I did a 1-round mock. Let's see how wrong I am.

1. Cincinnati--Joe Burrow
2. Washington--Chase Young
3. Detroit--Jeff Okudah
4. LA Chargers (from NYG)--Justin Herbert
5. Miami--Tua Tagivailoa
6. NYG(from LA Chargers)--Jedrick Wills
7. Carolina--Isaiah Simmons
8. Arizona--Andrew Thomas
9. Jacksonville--Derrick Brown
10. Cleveland--Tristan Wirfs
11. NY Jets--Mekhi Beckton
12. Las Vegas--Henry Ruggs
13. Atlanta(from SF)--CJ Henderson
14. Tampa--Josh Jones
15. Denver--CeeDee Lamb
16. Philly(from SF via Atlanta)--Ezra Cleveland
17. Dallas--K'Lavon Chaisson
18. Miami--Xavier McKinney
19. Las Vegas--Kristian Fulton
20. Jacksonville--Javon Kinlaw
21. SF(via Philly)--Justin Jefferson
22. Minnesota--Jalen Reagor
23. Seattle(via NE)--Austin Jackson
24. New Orleans--Patrick Queen
25. Minnesota--Trevon Diggs
26. Miami--Cesar Ruiz
27. KC(from NE via Seattle)--Kenneth Murray
28. Baltimore--Yetur Gross-Matos
29. Indianapolis(via Ten)--Jordan Love
30. Green Bay--Denzel Mims
31. SF--Marlon Davidson
32. Denver(via NE from KC)--Lucas Niang
 

EL Jeffe

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Aug 30, 2006
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I used Scott Wright's Big Board on fanspeak (I've been a fan of Wright's for a long time). I have a feeling SMU will like some of these picks.

R1/P23 TE COLE KMET NOTRE DAME (probably a slight reach, but high ceiling at a position of need with a reasonable floor)

R3/P23 C MATT HENNESSY TEMPLE (could start at OG if Thuney leaves or be a longterm replacement for Andrews)

R3/P34 DL RAEKWON DAVIS ALABAMA (two straight years of bad production after a Calais Campbell type sophomore year)

R3/P36 EDGE ANFERNEE JENNINGS ALABAMA (KVN replacement, checks lots of NE boxes)

R4/P19 LB SHAQUILLE QUARTERMAN MIAMI (Undersized tackling machine in the Elandon Roberts mold)

R4/P33 QB JAMES MORGAN FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (Starting NFL arm talent, needs development)

R5/P26 LB EVAN WEAVER CALIFORNIA (another tackling machine and core ST'er but limited athleticism)

R6/P16 S ALOHI GILMAN NOTRE DAME (core ST'er, over-aggressive at safety but has some talent)

R6/P25 WR QUINTEZ CEPHUS WISCONSIN (4.73 40 but plays faster and produces)

R6/P33 K TYLER BASS GEORGIA SOUTHERN (answered the lingering distance questions at the Senior Bowl)

R6/P34 LB CASEY TOOHILL STANFORD (Needs to get stronger, but nice frame and has some future edge potential)

R7/P27 EDGE JONAH WILLIAMS WEBER ST. (Workout warrior, lottery ticket type)
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
6,910
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Going to follow in @RedOctober3829 's lead and post my predictive 2020 first round mock:

1. CIN: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
2. WAS: Chase Young, Edge, THE Ohio State and don't you forget it.
3. MIA trades pick 70 and pick 5 to get to 3. Mekhi Becton
4. NYG: Tristian Wirfs, OT, Iowa
5. DET: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
6. LAC: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
7. CAR: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
8. ATL trades 16 & 47: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
9. JAX: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
10. TB: trades 14 & 76 to CLE: Jedrick Wills, OT, BAMA
11. NYJ: Ceedee Lamb, WR, OKLA
12. LV: Kenneth Murray, LB, OU
13. MIA: trades 18 and a future 1 to SF for Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon.
14. JAX: Trades 20 and 73 to CLE: Select Jordan Love, QB, Utah State.
15. DEN: Henry Ruggs, WR, BAMA
16. ARI: Austin Jackson, OT, USC
17. DAL: AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
18. PHI: Trades 21 & 103 to SF: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
19. LV: K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU
20. CLE: Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State
21. SF: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina.
22. MIN: Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
23. LAC: Trades 37 & 71 & 151 & future 5 to NE: Tua, QB, BAMA
24. NO: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
25. BAL: Trade 28 & 106 to MIN: Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU
26. MIA: Antoine Winfield Jr., FS, MIN
27. SEA: trade CIN 33 & 107 & 180: Josh Jones, OT, HOU
28. MIN: Cesar Ruiz, OC/OG, Michigan
29. TEN: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
30. GB: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, PSU
31. DEN: Trades 46 & 77 to SF: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
32. KC: D'Andrew Swift, RB, Georgia

Bonus:
33. SEA: Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia


Edit: Numbers selected

CB: 6
S: 1
LB: 3
Edge: 3
IDL: 3
Total Defense: 16
OT: 7
IOL: 1
RB: 1
TE: 0
WR: 4
QB: 4
Total Offense: 16

I did not intend to do a 50/50 split.
 
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SoxFanInPdx

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Jul 15, 2005
2,622
Portland, OR
Played around with the PFF Mock last night and came up with this. Not too bad at all and lots of fun. Thoughts on this from some of the others with more in-depth knowledge than me?

Edit: Attached the image, but couldn't get it to scale to a non-massive size.30310
 
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ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
3,168
Going to follow in @RedOctober3829 's lead and post my predictive 2020 first round mock:

1. CIN: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
2. WAS: Chase Young, Edge, THE Ohio State and don't you forget it.
3. MIA trades pick 70 and pick 5 to get to 3. Mekhi Becton
4. NYG: Tristian Wirfs, OT, Iowa
5. DET: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
6. LAC: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
7. CAR: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
8. ATL trades 16 & 47: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
9. JAX: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson
10. TB: trades 14 & 76 to CLE: Jedrick Wills, OT, BAMA
11. NYJ: Ceedee Lamb, WR, OKLA
12. LV: Kenneth Murray, LB, OU
13. MIA: trades 18 and a future 1 to SF for Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon.
14. JAX: Trades 20 and 73 to CLE: Select Jordan Love, QB, Utah State.
15. DEN: Henry Ruggs, WR, BAMA
16. ARI: Austin Jackson, OT, USC
17. DAL: AJ Terrell, CB, Clemson
18. PHI: Trades 21 & 103 to SF: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
19. LV: K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU
20. CLE: Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State
21. SF: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina.
22. MIN: Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
23. LAC: Trades 37 & 71 & 151 & future 5 to NE: Tua, QB, BAMA
24. NO: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU
25. BAL: Trade 28 & 106 to MIN: Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU
26. MIA: Antoine Winfield Jr., FS, MIN
27. SEA: trade CIN 33 & 107 & 180: Josh Jones, OT, HOU
28. MIN: Cesar Ruiz, OC/OG, Michigan
29. TEN: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
30. GB: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, PSU
31. DEN: Trades 46 & 77 to SF: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
32. KC: D'Andrew Swift, RB, Georgia

Bonus:
33. SEA: Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia


Edit: Numbers selected

CB: 6
S: 1
LB: 3
Edge: 3
IDL: 3
Total Defense: 16
OT: 7
IOL: 1
RB: 1
TE: 0
WR: 4
QB: 4
Total Offense: 16

I did not intend to do a 50/50 split.
Having Tua drop to NE and then trading away the pick to LAC would hurt me physically.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I used Scott Wright's Big Board on fanspeak (I've been a fan of Wright's for a long time). I have a feeling SMU will like some of these picks.

R1/P23 TE COLE KMET NOTRE DAME (probably a slight reach, but high ceiling at a position of need with a reasonable floor)

R3/P23 C MATT HENNESSY TEMPLE (could start at OG if Thuney leaves or be a longterm replacement for Andrews)

R3/P34 DL RAEKWON DAVIS ALABAMA (two straight years of bad production after a Calais Campbell type sophomore year)

R3/P36 EDGE ANFERNEE JENNINGS ALABAMA (KVN replacement, checks lots of NE boxes)

R4/P19 LB SHAQUILLE QUARTERMAN MIAMI (Undersized tackling machine in the Elandon Roberts mold)

R4/P33 QB JAMES MORGAN FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (Starting NFL arm talent, needs development)

R5/P26 LB EVAN WEAVER CALIFORNIA (another tackling machine and core ST'er but limited athleticism)

R6/P16 S ALOHI GILMAN NOTRE DAME (core ST'er, over-aggressive at safety but has some talent)

R6/P25 WR QUINTEZ CEPHUS WISCONSIN (4.73 40 but plays faster and produces)

R6/P33 K TYLER BASS GEORGIA SOUTHERN (answered the lingering distance questions at the Senior Bowl)

R6/P34 LB CASEY TOOHILL STANFORD (Needs to get stronger, but nice frame and has some future edge potential)

R7/P27 EDGE JONAH WILLIAMS WEBER ST. (Workout warrior, lottery ticket type)
Wound up with a similar result on PFN with some trade downs. Wish I had a more elite LB, whiffed on DL, and probably shouldn’t have picked three safeties, but not too bad...
38. Michael Pittman Jr. WR USC
trade icon
49. Cole Kmet TE Notre Dame
trade icon
98. Logan Wilson ILB Wyoming
100. Matt Hennessy C Temple
125. James Morgan QB FIU
139. Cameron Brown OLB Penn State
172. Alohi Gilman S Notre Dame
195. Tyler Bass K Georgia Southern
212. Javelin Guidry S Utah
213. Shaquille Quarterman ILB Miami
230. Geno Stone S Iowa
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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So I tried using a future pick as a stand-in for Gronk, and found something infuriating with PFF. If you trade for a pick in a way that is not a direct trade down..... they force you to pick there. So if I trade for 139 I HAVE to make a pick there even when teams are interested in trading for it. Lot to like about PFF's mock simulator, but man it has some infuriating flaws that they actually put in intentionally that make it worse

Edit- OKay here is my mock. I tried not to go for a total ripoff in the trade down. The future picks represent THuney in the Detroit trade, and Gronk in the TB trade
30307
 
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Carbo Loading

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Dec 8, 2002
676
Vancouver, WA
So I took SMU's chart and mocked the rest of the draft on Fanspeak which is updated. This is what I came up with. I made one trade up in the 5th to get the CB.



30360
 

Cellar-Door

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OK 2-7 all trades use the Rich Hill trade chart and are pretty close to even though not exact.
30370
 

Cellar-Door

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Gonna bump this....
So PFF still has trade issues, so I used PFN because it will make you offers on the clock.
I didn't trade up once, and just either accepted or rejected offers made to me.....

Two VERY different drafts:
VERSION 1- QB FALL
15- Justin Fields QB OSU(LOL)
46- Rashod Bateman WR MIN
96- Joe Tryon EDGE WAS
120- Traded to CLE (selected Tutu Atwell) for 132, 170, 255
132- Osa Odighizuwa DT UCLA
139- David Moore OG Grambling St.
145- Kylin Hill RB Miss St.
159 Garrett Wallow LB TCU
170- Jamie Newman QB Georgia (felt like too good a value)
197- Derek Barnes LB Purdue
199 Briley Moore TE- KS St.
241- Riley Patterson K Memphis
255- Lamar Johnson S IND.

VERSION 2- TRADE DOWN
15- Traded to CHI (took Waddle) for 20 and 52
20- Christian Darrisaw OT VaTech
46- Jay Tufele DT USC
52- Carlos Basham EDGE Wake Forest
96- Elijah Moore- WR Mississippi
120- Traded to MIN (took Adrian Early) for 125 and 201
125- Tyree Gillespie S Missouri
139- Jamie Newman QB Georgia
145- Kylin Hill RB Miss St
159- Sage Surrat, WR Wake
197 Darrius Stills DL WVU
199-Errol Thompson LB, MS St.
201- Nick Eubanks, TE Michigan
241- Shawn Davis, S FLA

So only crossover is Hill and Newman...

Version 1 is probably preferred, definitely less talent, but a potential franchise QB.
Version 2 I ended up with more talent I think, with the first 4 really good players who all felt like steams where I goth them (particularly Moore).
 

Cellar-Door

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This one was interesting (PFN same rules, accept or reject offers made to me only):

At 15 I did something I could see happening and making people rage in the draft thread:
I traded down with Micah Parsons on the board (got 26, 59, 110)
26- Darrisaw
46- Alim McNeil
59- Rondale Moore
96- Joe Tryon
110- Traded with 241 for 126, 167, 187)
120- Kellen Mond
126- Ben Cleveland
139- Cam Sample
145- Kylin Hill
159- Jaelon Darden
167- Thomas Graham
187- KJ Britt
 

Cotillion

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Jun 11, 2019
788
Here's me just being stupid as I have no skill in this what so ever... only rule for the first couple of spots was pick somebody if they were at least half the pick number in draft grade otherwise trade (for later rounds it was try to get somebody at least 10 grades better if you can or pick if no one will trade). Otherwise it was load up for 2022 just to see what the simulation would let me get away with. Though I did use my early picks so I couldn't get a ton of high 2022, but I definitely have a lot of ammunition for the guy next year after I get fired.

15 Micah Parsons LB
46 Mac Jones QB
120 Hunter Long TE
121 Simi Fehoko WR
159 Drake Jackson C
201 Charles Snowden ED
202 Shane Buechele QB
225 Tariq Thompson S
240 Taquone Graham DI
244 Josh Ball T
256 Marcelino Ball CB

2022 Haul
R2 LV
R3 Houston
R3 Atlanta
R4 KC
R4 Pitt
R5 Mia
R6 Mia
R6 Pitt
R6 Minn
R7 Minn
R7 Pitt
R7 KC

Left the settings at the default other than speed.
 
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67YAZ

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Dec 1, 2000
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This one was interesting (PFN same rules, accept or reject offers made to me only):

At 15 I did something I could see happening and making people rage in the draft thread:
I traded down with Micah Parsons on the board (got 26, 59, 110)
26- Darrisaw
46- Alim McNeil
59- Rondale Moore
96- Joe Tryon
110- Traded with 241 for 126, 167, 187)
120- Kellen Mond
126- Ben Cleveland
139- Cam Sample
145- Kylin Hill
159- Jaelon Darden
167- Thomas Graham
187- KJ Britt
If you can get a player like Darrisaw at 26, good deal. And I agree, Bill will probably see the board as pretty flat after the top 10 or so A move down feel inevitable to pick up more 2nd & 3rd round fodder.

PFN must have tweaked the software because trading up is a lot more costly this week.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
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Hingham, MA
If you can get a player like Darrisaw at 26, good deal. And I agree, Bill will probably see the board as pretty flat after the top 10 or so A move down feel inevitable to pick up more 2nd & 3rd round fodder.

PFN must have tweaked the software because trading up is a lot more costly this week.
Not sure, I just traded 15 and 145 for 10. That's not a trade Dallas would ever make

1614183583407.png
 

Mystic Merlin

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Sep 21, 2007
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Hartford, CT
Didn’t someone get like two future firsts and a second to move from 3 to 6, too?

I have no idea how these simulations ascribe value. Any movement within the top ten with a top QB available equals RG3 trade value? Then you get a result like the one above, where 145 nets a jump from 15 to 10.

EDIT - I just ran a simulation where Wilson and Fields went 1-2, and I jumped from 15 to 3 to get Trevor Lawrence by offering 15, a future first and a future second. This thing is broken, sorry to say.
 
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tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Didn’t someone get like two future firsts and a second to move from 3 to 6, too?

I have no idea how these simulations ascribe value. Any movement within the top ten with a top QB available equals RG3 trade value? Then you get a result like the one above, where 145 nets a jump from 15 to 10.

EDIT - I just ran a simulation where Wilson and Fields went 1-2, and I jumped from 15 to 3 to get Trevor Lawrence by offering 15, a future first and a future second. This thing is broken, sorry to say.
Yeah the trade valuations are all screwed up. I trade down all the time in the simulation and I can usually get something like 24 / 56 / 87 for 15. I doubt that would happen in the real world.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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Not planning to post every day, but I took a break from work, and this fall was almost perfect, made 1 tiny trade :
15- Trey Lance (doubtful, but sometimes a QB falls)
46- Zaven Collins
96- Amari Rodgers (only way this got better would have been if Moore had fallen 2 more spots to me)
120- Brady Christensen
139- Traded for 140 and 251 (Rams took Austin Watkins)
140- Cam Sample
145- Aaron Banks
159- Benjamin St.Juste
197- Tamorrion Terry
199-Paris Ford
241- Bryan Mills
251-Riley Patterson
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I love me some mocks, but I'm finding all the simulator software I'm aware of (PFN, PFF, Fanspeak) to be wildly off base in how slowly the big four QBs come off the board. I have a hard time picturing the big three (Lawrence, Wilson, Fields) getting past #4, and Lance won't fall below Carolina/Denver at #8/9. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if all four were picked by #6.

This is all based on my advanced scouting and deep relationships inside NFL management.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
20,242
I love me some mocks, but I'm finding all the simulator software I'm aware of (PFN, PFF, Fanspeak) to be wildly off base in how slowly the big four QBs come off the board. I have a hard time picturing the big three (Lawrence, Wilson, Fields) getting past #4, and Lance won't fall below Carolina/Denver at #8/9. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if all four were picked by #6.

This is all based on my advanced scouting and deep relationships inside NFL management.
I think we generally overrate the desire to trade up into the top 5 for the 2nd to 4th QB in a draft and the desire to trade out of the top 5.
I look at last year... Tua and Burrow were going 1-2 for sure, 4 QBs in the top 20 maybe Love even gets into the top 10-12 was the word.... Tua went 5th, Love fell to 26
2018- 4 top QBs, all rumored as potential #1 and a 5th high variance sure 1st rounder... last one goes at 10, and then Lamar the "risky" one almost falls out of the 1st.
2017- Mahomes and Watson go 10-12

I wouldn't be at all surprised if one of the top 4 falls to 10 or lower, and one of the top 3 falls to 5 or lower. In years with a bunch of QBs, sometimes they fall because a lot of teams have one or two valued above the rest, sometimes they fall because teams in the top 10 with a QB are in love with a different player and would rather take him than trade down.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I think we generally overrate the desire to trade up into the top 5 for the 2nd to 4th QB in a draft and the desire to trade out of the top 5.
I look at last year... Tua and Burrow were going 1-2 for sure, 4 QBs in the top 20 maybe Love even gets into the top 10-12 was the word.... Tua went 5th, Love fell to 26
2018- 4 top QBs, all rumored as potential #1 and a 5th high variance sure 1st rounder... last one goes at 10, and then Lamar the "risky" one almost falls out of the 1st.
2017- Mahomes and Watson go 10-12

I wouldn't be at all surprised if one of the top 4 falls to 10 or lower, and one of the top 3 falls to 5 or lower. In years with a bunch of QBs, sometimes they fall because a lot of teams have one or two valued above the rest, sometimes they fall because teams in the top 10 with a QB are in love with a different player and would rather take him than trade down.
I hear you, but I think this year is unique in terms of how many teams have huge QB needs.

By my count:

Teams that NEED a starting QB in 2021 [7]: JAC, DEN, WAS, NE, CHI, CAR, NO)
Teams that NEED a starting QB in 2022 [1]: PIT
Teams that can't be super-confident in their 2021 QB, and don't have a current 2022 plan [2]: NYG, PHI

Assume that DeShaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Dan Prescott, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, Jimmy G and Sam Darnold are all bonafide NFL quarterbacks and will be starting somewhere in FY21 and FY22. If they fill a hole on another team, they open up a hole where they are now.

Sure, Jameis, Mariota, Fitz, Cam, and Minshew can fill some of those slots... but probably not with such confidence a team wouldn't want a top-shelf developmental QB at the same time.
 

BaseballJones

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Latest from cbssports.com

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-eagles-patriots-trade-up-for-qbs-panthers-get-deshaun-watson-bears-add-sam-darnold/
They have the Pats making the following moves:
  • Patriots acquire No. 12 from 49ers for No. 15, 2021 fourth-rounder, 2022 fourth-rounder
  • Patriots acquire No. 31 from Chiefs for No. 46, 2021 third-rounder
  • Browns acquire CB Stephon Gilmore from Patriots for 2021 third-round pick, 2022 fourth-round pick
Then in the first round, they select:

#12: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama
#31: QB Mac Jones, Alabama

They'd need help at corner, though they might have enough in-house resources to still be adequate there. Trading away Gilmore would mean extending JC Jackson and either drafting more help or picking some veteran help up off the FA pile. But Jones and Smith would be a very interesting first-round pairing.

Of course this isn't going to happen but still. Fun to think about.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Latest from cbssports.com

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-eagles-patriots-trade-up-for-qbs-panthers-get-deshaun-watson-bears-add-sam-darnold/
They have the Pats making the following moves:
  • Patriots acquire No. 12 from 49ers for No. 15, 2021 fourth-rounder, 2022 fourth-rounder
  • Patriots acquire No. 31 from Chiefs for No. 46, 2021 third-rounder
  • Browns acquire CB Stephon Gilmore from Patriots for 2021 third-round pick, 2022 fourth-round pick
Then in the first round, they select:

#12: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama
#31: QB Mac Jones, Alabama

They'd need help at corner, though they might have enough in-house resources to still be adequate there. Trading away Gilmore would mean extending JC Jackson and either drafting more help or picking some veteran help up off the FA pile. But Jones and Smith would be a very interesting first-round pairing.

Of course this isn't going to happen but still. Fun to think about.
This cracks me up. In the Patriots group slack we’re talking about guys you don’t want in round 1. The two guys I didn’t want? DeVonta Smith and Mac Jones. Lol!

By the way... I talked to a former SOSHer about Smith. I asked his permission to post about our discussion. He also would advise caution on taking an outlier like Smith that high.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
38,344
This cracks me up. In the Patriots group slack we’re talking about guys you don’t want in round 1. The two guys I didn’t want? DeVonta Smith and Mac Jones. Lol!

By the way... I talked to a former SOSHer about Smith. I asked his permission to post about our discussion. He also would advise caution on taking an outlier like Smith that high.
You guys are probably right since you follow this stuff a lot closer than I do but, man, if Smith is there at #15, I would be mighty tempted depending on who else is there.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
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Oct 1, 2015
11,938
This cracks me up. In the Patriots group slack we’re talking about guys you don’t want in round 1. The two guys I didn’t want? DeVonta Smith and Mac Jones. Lol!

By the way... I talked to a former SOSHer about Smith. I asked his permission to post about our discussion. He also would advise caution on taking an outlier like Smith that high.
I know you don't like Smith's size, but everything else is off the charts with him. Is it just the size, or do you have other concerns?
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
6,910
Dallas
You guys are probably right since you follow this stuff a lot closer than I do but, man, if Smith is there at #15, I would be mighty tempted depending on who else is there.
There isn't one right answer honestly. I can't say you SHOUDLN'T 100% take him. It is more about your risk tolerance.

So basically I brought up the discussion that Smitty has a super low BMI and is in the bottom 1%. Does that matter? Well - when said individual was working for the Bruins they could not prove OR disprove that smaller guys get injured more frequently. However, it is risky to pick someone who doesn't have the body size/type that others in the league do. Basically there is a reason there are prototypes and while not everyone who wins is a prototype it certainly increases your odds. The question was then ok well how many guys in his weight class/BMI class are succeeding at WR. How many have over the years? When you are looking at 29-30 guys over 30 years and only 1-2 of them had any sort of success longer than 4-5 years that's not good odds. That implies a risk. That was his biggest issue - you really want to stay in established lanes because if you don't you are exposing yourself to risk. Now, on the other side of it - if a guy is an outlier because he is a defensive tackle who runs a 4.4 40 at 320 pounds and a 6.77 3-cone with a 55 inch vertical jump... you might want to take a chance on him if his tape is good :).

I have 0 issues with Smith's tape. His tape grade is clearly 1st round. Where the risk comes in is that he has a low BMI that is rare to find more than just a handful of guys who have had success playing that slim. Also, usually the low BMI guys are 4.3 low 4.4 kind of fast. Smith is fine there, probably a 4.5 but nothing special. So you would be banking on an average speed guy at his weight.

There isn't a right answer here. if you feel comfortable with taking the risk then pull the trigger. However, if you ask people who model risk and/or want to optimize a draft strategy if all other things are equal tape/personality/fit wise you take a different player.

With Mac Jones I don't see him as a starter. Smith I definitely see him as a potential starter and even a good one at that but I avoid outliers like him, Kyler Murray, Hollywood Brown, etc. If I miss on guys that way I can live with it. Again it just comes down to how you want to handle risk in a crapshoot activity.

For me with Smith the risk becomes worth the reward somewhere in the 16-35 range with this particular draft and when I outlined it I more comfortable with Smith in the mid 20s. I still think the best bet is to take a different position.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
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I know you don't like Smith's size, but everything else is off the charts with him. Is it just the size, or do you have other concerns?
Purely size and risk mitigation. I have some questions on tape about his blocking, which is bad even though he tries, and his ability to get off better press coverage. But he's still an 8+ guy for me so definitely a first round kind of tape grade FWIW.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
20,242
Possibly my favorite haul yet (without ripoff trades)
Collins, R. Moore, McNeil, Dickerson, Tryon, Sherwood, J. Newman, Cade Johnson, K. Hill, Kaindoh, Wallow, Ford and MIA 2022 4th.

That's a draft I love, would have liked to get a Tackle but never had value
 

Cellar-Door

Member
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Aug 1, 2006
20,242
Post-FA ran 2 drafts... one where we trade up for the last of the top 4 QBs on the board, one where we can't trade up"

QB Tradeup DRAFT:
#8- Zach Wilson (pick acquired using 15, 46 and 2022 1st)
#96- Jamin Davis
#109 Tyler Shelvin
#139- Jaelon Darden
#147- Benjamin St Juste
#187- Kylin Hill
#196- Alaric Jackson
#241- Jose Borregales

NO-TRADEUP DRAFT:
#15- Micah Parsons
#46- Rondale Moore
#96 Walker Little
#109- Jamie Sherwood
#139- Jamie Newman
#147 Kylin Hill
#187 Thomas Graham
#196 Paris Ford
#241- Shane Buechele
 

BigSoxFan

Member
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May 31, 2007
38,344
Post-FA ran 2 drafts... one where we trade up for the last of the top 4 QBs on the board, one where we can't trade up"

QB Tradeup DRAFT:
#8- Zach Wilson (pick acquired using 15, 46 and 2022 1st)
#96- Jamin Davis
#109 Tyler Shelvin
#139- Jaelon Darden
#147- Benjamin St Juste
#187- Kylin Hill
#196- Alaric Jackson
#241- Jose Borregales

NO-TRADEUP DRAFT:
#15- Micah Parsons
#46- Rondale Moore
#96 Walker Little
#109- Jamie Sherwood
#139- Jamie Newman
#147 Kylin Hill
#187 Thomas Graham
#196 Paris Ford
#241- Shane Buechele
Parsons/Moore at 15/46 would be insane. I would be all over that. Adding Parsons to this LB group would be incredible.
 

Saints Rest

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Lifetime Member
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Post-FA ran 2 drafts... one where we trade up for the last of the top 4 QBs on the board, one where we can't trade up"

QB Tradeup DRAFT:
#8- Zach Wilson (pick acquired using 15, 46 and 2022 1st)
#96- Jamin Davis
#109 Tyler Shelvin
#139- Jaelon Darden
#147- Benjamin St Juste
#187- Kylin Hill
#196- Alaric Jackson
#241- Jose Borregales

NO-TRADEUP DRAFT:
#15- Micah Parsons
#46- Rondale Moore
#96 Walker Little
#109- Jamie Sherwood
#139- Jamie Newman
#147 Kylin Hill
#187 Thomas Graham
#196 Paris Ford
#241- Shane Buechele
How do you envision a draft going where Wilson slips to 8? I feel like the consensus seems to rounding into play with Lawrence going 1 and Wilson going 2 in pretty much every mock these days.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
20,242
How do you envision a draft going where Wilson slips to 8? I feel like the consensus seems to rounding into play with Lawrence going 1 and Wilson going 2 in pretty much every mock these days.
I think it went Lawrence, Fields.
I don't see it, but if Fields goes 2nd... maybe? I think it's going to be Lance if anyone that falls into the 7/8 range.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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May 11, 2011
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Fanspeak hasn't updated to show all of the Pats picks yet but I did this anyway.

15: R1 P15 DL Christian Barmore - Alabama
46: R2 P14 RB Travis Etienne - Clemson
96: R3 P32 S Paris Ford - Pittsburgh
109: R4 P4 CB Eric Stokes - Georgia
120: R4 P15 WR Tamorrion Terry - Florida State
139: R4 P34 LB Hamilcar Rashed Jr. - Oregon State
187: R6 P4 G David Moore - Grambling State
241: R7 P15 QB Davis Mills - Stanford

I keep seeing the number one DT in the draft sitting there at 15 and I get visions of Wilfork dropping in our laps. Parsons was available but I have no idea how we could fit another LB on the roster.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
20,242
Fanspeak hasn't updated to show all of the Pats picks yet but I did this anyway.

15: R1 P15 DL Christian Barmore - Alabama
46: R2 P14 RB Travis Etienne - Clemson
96: R3 P32 S Paris Ford - Pittsburgh
109: R4 P4 CB Eric Stokes - Georgia
120: R4 P15 WR Tamorrion Terry - Florida State
139: R4 P34 LB Hamilcar Rashed Jr. - Oregon State
187: R6 P4 G David Moore - Grambling State
241: R7 P15 QB Davis Mills - Stanford

I keep seeing the number one DT in the draft sitting there at 15 and I get visions of Wilfork dropping in our laps. Parsons was available but I have no idea how we could fit another LB on the roster.
One thing this and mine above show... there is way more variance in the mid to late rounds than normal it feels like.... you took Paris Ford at #96, I took him at #196.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
43,619
With the Pats covering so many holes in FA, if they cannot trade up--any chance they grab a WR like Waddle or Chase if they fall?
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
6,910
Dallas
My thought with this WR class is don’t take one at 15. However if Pitts, Waddle, or Chase fell throw that rule out the window. All 3 would fit on this team now and into the future. There is no chance Chase falls. He’s top 10. There is little chance Waddle falls past 11. Pitts probably gets scooped up between 11–14 at the latest. If they can’t land a QB I see all three of those guys as blue-chippers. Think Pitts is the 2nd best player in this class behind Lawrence. Chase is probably top 5-6 for me and Waddle is top 10.
Quick edit: All 3 are prototype Pats even Pitts. Pitts is growing as a blocker and will put on 10-20 pounds in the NFL naturally. He will be fine there just not year 1-2.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
43,619
Yeah, I doubt they fall too, but I guess if someone jumps on Jones before 15, someone is falling.
 

BigSoxFan

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38,344
My thought with this WR class is don’t take one at 15. However if Pitts, Waddle, or Chase fell throw that rule out the window. All 3 would fit on this team now and into the future. There is no chance Chase falls. He’s top 10. There is little chance Waddle falls past 11. Pitts probably gets scooped up between 11–14 at the latest. If they can’t land a QB I see all three of those guys as blue-chippers. Think Pitts is the 2nd best player in this class behind Lawrence. Chase is probably top 5-6 for me and Waddle is top 10.
Quick edit: All 3 are prototype Pats even Pitts. Pitts is growing as a blocker and will put on 10-20 pounds in the NFL naturally. He will be fine there just not year 1-2.
Do you think Golladay going to NYG may impact the Pitts discussion at all? Clearly, any team can accommodate both but I’m still holding on to my Pitts dream until it is dashed.

In this highly unlikely scenario where Pitts is there at 15 and the Pats select him, how do you think he would work with Henry/Jonnu?

Also, what’s your take on Parsons if he’s there?

1. Are you concerned about the character stuff?
2. How would you use him with Judon, Uche, and High?
 
Feb 19, 2015
3,638
I'm a rank amateur when it comes to evaluating college players and mock drafts, so take this for what it's worth, but it sure seems like the Pats are in a really terrific position this year after that stellar FA period. Many of the mocks I've run have either one of the target QB's falling to them, or a premium CB, T, Edge, or TE. This would let them select an excellent prospect for a position of need, or trade back for value if the TE falls to them. They are also in a great spot throughout the draft to trade out for 2022 picks. And of course, they could instead bundle picks and trade up for a QB. It seems like they have a ton of flexibility this year.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
6,910
Dallas
Do you think Golladay going to NYG may impact the Pitts discussion at all? Clearly, any team can accommodate both but I’m still holding on to my Pitts dream until it is dashed.

In this highly unlikely scenario where Pitts is there at 15 and the Pats select him, how do you think he would work with Henry/Jonnu?

Also, what’s your take on Parsons if he’s there?

1. Are you concerned about the character stuff?
2. How would you use him with Judon, Uche, and High?
Pitts is the best receiving tight end prospect I have ever seen in my life coming out... I classify him early on as a wide receiver. The man can run option routes from the slot at 6'6" and 245. He has the ankles of a slot receiver... Sorry man I could go on and on about Pitts. I fucking love the guy. No, it shouldn't impact the Giants taking him - Golladay is more of a traditional big physical X.

If Pitts ends up in NE with Jonnu and Henry? Pitts can play the X role, the Z role, the slot role. He can be detached. He can be used as a crack-toss blocker. They could use him as a WR and go 13 personnel. Good luck to the defense on that one. Pitts can beat press on the outside.

Parsons? So the skinny: he's a hybrid Edge/OLB/ILB who has some of the best athleticism, burst, and bend in the class. The problem is I have heard from people I trust who say he has multiple character issues. I don't know Phil Perry but I heard Phil say it too. Parsons is also super aggressive and free-lances a lot.

I trust Phil and others when they say his issues might not make him a locker-room fit.

If he was picked though I am not sure his best spot. Is he your new Hightower hybrid kind of Mike? Is he more a SAM? Is he more your 3-4 Joker who is a pass rushing guy? He has so many traits and things he can do well that it's hard to know how they would use him other than - Bill would probably line him up all over the place over time and let him perform multiple roles. Year one he might only play on passing downs. When you have Judon, Uche, Hightower, and Wino you have 4 guys who can all rush the passer fairly well. I could see them using a 2-4-5 defense with him though... Not sure who would be IDL: Wise though with maybe Judon? Someone else who is bigger? and then Hightower, Uche, Wino or Judon, and Parsons as guys who can all rush or drop back into coverage.

They have a lot of options which is good - I think Wino would shine more as passing downs only player. Wino can see the field more on 2nd and 3rd down if the run defense holds up. If you avg 2-3 yards a run against on 1st down Wino can play on 2nd and 3rd down. The problem is when Wino is on the field on 1st down and they run for 5-6 yard chunks against him. They still have room for one more IDL/DE type. I could see a guy like Levi O as a 4-5-6 tech penetrator. IDL in the draft isn't that good this year. There are a lot of 3-techs but not a ton of Patriots style versatile 1-2 gap base 3-4 end types or true NTs.