NFL: News and transactions

amfox1

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Trade terms, per sources…

Colts get:
2022 third-round pick
2023 third-round pick that can become a second if Carson Wentz plays 70 percent of plays.
2022 second-round pick

Commanders get:
QB Carson Wentz
2022 second-round pick.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Why the second round pick swap thsi year, and a likely second next year too? Commanders gonna command.... zilch
 

sodenj5

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Colts taking a gigantic L in the Wentz trade. At least they’re taking their medicine and moving on right away.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Colts have absoultely nothing at QB now right? Ehlinger and Morgan are not likely viewed as real replacements.

If so, really interesting (and speaks loudly) that they prefer "the field" to Wentz after having him for a year.
 

sodenj5

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Frank Reich has to be at least a little bit on the hot seat, no? That collapse at the end of the year and punting a first rounder on Wentz and being back to square one can’t be great for him.

Unfortunately for him, he’s likely going to have to try and work with another castoff QB or maybe at best a super raw Jordan Love.
 

RG33

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It is more than an overpay. Washington is paying the full $28 million due to Carson Wentz this year, which includes a $5 million roster bonus due next week.
I mean, I have absolutely no idea what Washington is doing here. Between two 3rd round picks, the extra $5M in salary, it seems like a massive overpay for an injury-prone, turnover-prone, mediocre starting QB.
 

moondog80

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Colts taking a gigantic L in the Wentz trade. At least they’re taking their medicine and moving on right away.
If you look at the whole sequence, perhaps. But this deal alone is a huge win, right?
 

Sandwich Pick

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Wentz got the exact situation he wanted, and still couldn't make it work.

So glad the Eagles punted on him when they did. Eating $34m in cap space was completely worth it.
 

DJnVa

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I mean, I have absolutely no idea what Washington is doing here. Between two 3rd round picks, the extra $5M in salary, it seems like a massive overpay for an injury-prone, turnover-prone, mediocre starting QB.
Wentz and how we look at QB stats is interesting.

Last year he was decidedly *not* turnover-prone. He was 3rd in the NFL in lowest INT %. If you add his fumbles lost to his INT he still had fewer total turnovers than Stafford, Allen and Herbert had interceptions. His bad throw % is about the same as Wilson's and Herbert's. He was bad in 2020 and in his rookie year, but his other 4 seasons he doesn't really throw too many INTs---28 over those 4 years.

He had 27 TDs and only 7 INTs. His QBR was the same as Russell Wilson's. His QB rating was higher than Josh Allen's.
 

JM3

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Commanders - clearly see this as a 42 man draft (looks like they are moving up from 47 to 42 this year).

I mean... it's not much at all for a competent starting QB. If only Wentz were one of those.
 

AB in DC

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Commanders - clearly see this as a 42 man draft (looks like they are moving up from 47 to 42 this year).

I mean... it's not much at all for a competent starting QB. If only Wentz were one of those.
Colts are one moving up to 42 I think.
 

54thMA

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Wentz and how we look at QB stats is interesting.

Last year he was decidedly *not* turnover-prone. He was 3rd in the NFL in lowest INT %. If you add his fumbles lost to his INT he still had fewer total turnovers than Stafford, Allen and Herbert had interceptions. His bad throw % is about the same as Wilson's and Herbert's. He was bad in 2020 and in his rookie year, but his other 4 seasons he doesn't really throw too many INTs---28 over those 4 years.

He had 27 TDs and only 7 INTs. His QBR was the same as Russell Wilson's. His QB rating was higher than Josh Allen's.
If all of this is true, any clue as to why the Colts cut ties with him after one year?

Reich was his OC in Philadelphia, so why do you think he cut him loose and any idea what their plan at QB is?

As much as Felger was ranting and raving about how now that the Broncos have Wilson, they are ahead of the Patriots in the AFC, this move as it stands right now puts the Colts behind the Patriots, correct?

In no particular order, it's Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Titans, Broncos (according again to Felger), then the Patriots in the AFC.
 

Sandwich Pick

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One small sliver of hope for Wentz lies in the fact that McLaurin will be the best WR he has ever had, outside of 1 year of Alshon Jeffery.
 

Marciano490

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On the flip side, he had the best back in the league last year and a full on workhorse.

Also, now that I see it in action, Commanders is such a dumb name and always will be.
 

Oil Can Dan

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If all of this is true, any clue as to why the Colts cut ties with him after one year?

Reich was his OC in Philadelphia, so why do you think he cut him loose and any idea what their plan at QB is?

As much as Felger was ranting and raving about how now that the Broncos have Wilson, they are ahead of the Patriots in the AFC, this move as it stands right now puts the Colts behind the Patriots, correct?

In no particular order, it's Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Titans, Broncos (according again to Felger), then the Patriots in the AFC.
My own take is that Wentz is just too reckless and too tense in big games. He's the kind of QB that you have to cover for. Meaning, you have to restrict how much gameplan you can throw at him because he's just not capable of executing outside of some basic pass game planning. The GM made some comment about a conversation he had late season with Wentz where he was telling him to focus on "just making the layups". He's like a QB with training wheels.

It's insane that the Colts are moving on after one season with no other option locked up, a weak free agent QB class and no 1st round pick in a weak QB draft. If that's not a huge red flag then I don't know what is. I have no idea what Washington is thinking here. I mean, I realize we'll never really know but who the hell were they bidding against for Wentz?
 

54thMA

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My own take is that Wentz is just too reckless and too tense in big games. He's the kind of QB that you have to cover for. Meaning, you have to restrict how much gameplan you can throw at him because he's just not capable of executing outside of some basic pass game planning. The GM made some comment about a conversation he had late season with Wentz where he was telling him to focus on "just making the layups". He's like a QB with training wheels.

It's insane that the Colts are moving on after one season with no other option locked up, a weak free agent QB class and no 1st round pick in a weak QB draft. If that's not a huge red flag then I don't know what is. I have no idea what Washington is thinking here. I mean, I realize we'll never really know but who the hell were they bidding against for Wentz?
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

I'm in total agreement with you on the moving on part with no other option locked up in a weak free agent QB class and no 1st round pick in a weak draft as being a huge red flag.

No clue what their plan is, but it speaks volumes as to what they think of him and his abilities.
 

Sandwich Pick

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My own take is that Wentz is just too reckless and too tense in big games. He's the kind of QB that you have to cover for. Meaning, you have to restrict how much gameplan you can throw at him because he's just not capable of executing outside of some basic pass game planning. The GM made some comment about a conversation he had late season with Wentz where he was telling him to focus on "just making the layups". He's like a QB with training wheels.

It's insane that the Colts are moving on after one season with no other option locked up, a weak free agent QB class and no 1st round pick in a weak QB draft. If that's not a huge red flag then I don't know what is. I have no idea what Washington is thinking here. I mean, I realize we'll never really know but who the hell were they bidding against for Wentz?
These quotes have been leaking out for years now. There was one after 2018 that Wentz "could overcomplicate 2+2" and another that "anyone coaching him has to be working for him"

Here's a good writeup around when it started to go south.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/carson-wentz-exclusive-sources-paint-eagles-quarterback-as-selfish-not-team-player/

Indeed, sources describe Wentz as “incredibly hard working,” “determined,” and “highly intelligent.” But the true Wentz is more nuanced and complicated, with sources describing him as “selfish,” “uncompromising,” “egotistical,” one who plays “favorites” and doesn’t like to be “questioned,” one who needs to “practice what he preaches" and fails “to take accountability.”

Numerous sources confirmed Wentz was once verbally attacked by a highly respected teammate for not being “a team guy.”

“Carson Wentz’s biggest enemy is Carson Wentz,” one source said. “He’s had his ass kissed his whole life, and sometimes acts like he’s won 10 Super Bowls, when he hasn’t played in, let alone won, a playoff game yet. Everyone around him wants good things for him. He did more thinking on the field than he did playing (in 2018). You don’t have to be a brain surgeon or a football expert to see how differently this team plays and reacts with one guy as opposed to the other."
 
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pappymojo

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Colts with close to $70 million in cap space but no first round pick and no starting QB.
 

edoug

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Commanders, Guardians, who comes up with this stuff?
Marvel and Daniel Webster, I think.
Commanders - clearly see this as a 42 man draft (looks like they are moving up from 47 to 42 this year).

I mean... it's not much at all for a competent starting QB. If only Wentz were one of those.
Washington caring about the NFL draft is progress at least.
 

mauf

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Interesting take on the Wentz trade from Barnwell. If you think this is anywhere close to right, it’s a great deal for Indy assuming you think they’ll find an acceptable replacement QB. (Barnwell said on his podcast that he thinks TBW will land in Indy. Which would be a lateral move I guess, but likely cheaper.)

View: https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/1501637816119345154?s=21
 

moondog80

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Wentz did have a TD/INT of 27/7 last year. Take away his rookie year and 2020 and you are left with 4 years with a ratio of 108/28. Maybe he's not as bad as I thought?
 

Marciano490

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Perfect opportunity for TB12 to win two Super Bowls in Indy, swing from the rafters and wipe his ass with Peyton’s jersey.
 

Sandwich Pick

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Wentz did have a TD/INT of 27/7 last year. Take away his rookie year and 2020 and you are left with 4 years with a ratio of 108/28. Maybe he's not as bad as I thought?
He put up good numbers against some bad teams in the division.

From 2018-20, he was 17-21-1 as the Eagles starter. 9-19-1 if you take away the Giants and Washington.

TD/INT against NYG & WAS in those years: 19/4
Against everyone else: 45/25
 

pappymojo

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Interesting take on the Wentz trade from Barnwell. If you think this is anywhere close to right, it’s a great deal for Indy assuming you think they’ll find an acceptable replacement QB. (Barnwell said on his podcast that he thinks TBW will land in Indy. Which would be a lateral move I guess, but likely cheaper.)

View: https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/1501637816119345154?s=21
that seems like a bad calculation. Is he valuing the 2023 pick as if it were the same value as a 2022 pick?
 

moondog80

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He put up good numbers against some bad teams in the division.

From 2018-20, he was 17-21-1 as the Eagles starter. 9-19-1 if you take away the Giants and Washington.

TD/INT against NYG & WAS in those years: 19/4
Against everyone else: 45/25

Wouldn't everyone's numbers look a lot worse if you played this game?
 

Oil Can Dan

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that seems like a bad calculation. Is he valuing the 2023 pick as if it were the same value as a 2022 pick?
I don't know, but I can't think any team would trade #18 overall for a 2nd (at best), a 3rd and moving up 5 spots in the middle of the 2nd.
 

mauf

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I don't know, but I can't think any team would trade #18 overall for a 2nd (at best), a 3rd and moving up 5 spots in the middle of the 2nd.
Barnwell said he was splitting the difference between 2nd and 3rd on the conditional pick. Which is a bearish assumption for Indy; I’d say it’s significantly better than a 50/50 shot that Wentz will be under center for 70% of Washington’s offensive snaps.

Barnwell must also be making some assumption on where Washington will finish in next year’s standings. If he’s assuming flat to 2021, that’s a slightly bullish assumption for Indy, as you’d expect Washington to be somewhat better with Wentz at QB if everything else holds flat. But the conditional pick assumption is bearish, so I think his assumptions are balanced overall.

So he’s saying 19 this year is equal to 75 this year and 58 next year, plus moving up from 47 to 42 this year.

Yeah, putting it that way, it seems high.

If you assume that Wentz getting the snaps is a lock, then it’s 75 this year and 42 next, plus the move from 47 to 42 this year. That sounds about right but is too optimistic to be your base case for evaluating the trade.

Even if Barnwell’s math is wrong, I like the trade for Indy. They have the best O-Line in the league; they’ll find someone who can put up similar numbers to Wentz at lower cost, so whatever the picks are worth, it’s gravy.
 

Sandwich Pick

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Wouldn't everyone's numbers look a lot worse if you played this game?
If you were cherry picking stats, sure. I'm curious as to why you choose his rookie year and 2020 instead of 2017 and 2020, which are the years where he was an MVP favorite and pretty much unplayable, respectively. If anything, 2016, 2018 and 2019 are an accurate reflection of who he was as the Eagles QB.

I chose 2018-2020 because it was the range where he was coming off a major knee injury and had the pressure of defending a title that he didn't win. It was also the timeframe where the Eagles made it clear that he was the guy. Even with the Hurts selection, the extension they gave Wentz a year earlier cemented that.

Unfortunately, having to rely on Josh McCown in a playoff game changed things.
 

Saints Rest

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Barnwell said he was splitting the difference between 2nd and 3rd on the conditional pick. Which is a bearish assumption for Indy; I’d say it’s significantly better than a 50/50 shot that Wentz will be under center for 70% of Washington’s offensive snaps.

Barnwell must also be making some assumption on where Washington will finish in next year’s standings. If he’s assuming flat to 2021, that’s a slightly bullish assumption for Indy, as you’d expect Washington to be somewhat better with Wentz at QB if everything else holds flat. But the conditional pick assumption is bearish, so I think his assumptions are balanced overall.

So he’s saying 19 this year is equal to 75 this year and 58 next year, plus moving up from 47 to 42 this year.

Yeah, putting it that way, it seems high.

If you assume that Wentz getting the snaps is a lock, then it’s 75 this year and 42 next, plus the move from 47 to 42 this year. That sounds about right but is too optimistic to be your base case for evaluating the trade.

Even if Barnwell’s math is wrong, I like the trade for Indy. They have the best O-Line in the league; they’ll find someone who can put up similar numbers to Wentz at lower cost, so whatever the picks are worth, it’s gravy.
That last sentence is the money quote. They have the cap space to sign someone, but without much draft capital, where do they find someone? Jameis Winston? Teddy B?
 

JM3

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Stuart chart is going to value more darts more than NFL teams actually do.

If the Colts only concern was getting mediocre QB play for cheap they probably should have thought about that before they overpaid to acquire Wentz to begin with.
 

moondog80

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If you were cherry picking stats, sure. I'm curious as to why you choose his rookie year and 2020 instead of 2017 and 2020, which are the years where he was an MVP favorite and pretty much unplayable, respectively. If anything, 2016, 2018 and 2019 are an accurate reflection of who he was as the Eagles QB.
Dropping the rookie year seems fair because it's well established that QBs show a big improvement after that, and it's also the least recent data point. Of the 5 remaining years, 2020 is clearly the outlier. He's put up good to very good numbers 4 out of 5 years.

I wouldn't be super optimistic about this if I were a Washington fan. But...the NFC East, and maybe the conference altogether, is wide open. How many NFC QBs would you rather have? Rodgers, Stafford, Dak, Kyler for sure. After that...Cousins? Hurts? Goff? Maybe Matt Ryan? I dunno. It doesn't take a lot of imagination to see this working (i.e, they make the playoffs).
 

mauf

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If the Colts only concern was getting mediocre QB play for cheap they probably should have thought about that before they overpaid to acquire Wentz to begin with.
They were rolling the dice on Wentz recapturing his old magic with his old coach. It didn’t work out, so they’ll roll the dice on Winston, TBW, or someone else in 2022. Seems like a decent strategy for a franchise that has good coaching and should field a strong all-around roster but has no near-term path to land a franchise QB.
 

54thMA

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As much as Felger was ranting and raving about how now that the Broncos have Wilson, they are ahead of the Patriots in the AFC, this move as it stands right now puts the Colts behind the Patriots, correct?
According to Felger tonight, getting rid of Wentz puts the Colts ahead of the Patriots.

Even though as of now they have no one, they are still better off than the Patriots.

So I stand corrected.

You can't make this shit up.

By early next week, he'll be arguing with Holley about how now Jacksonville is ahead of the Patriots.
 

JM3

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They were rolling the dice on Wentz recapturing his old magic with his old coach. It didn’t work out, so they’ll roll the dice on Winston, TBW, or someone else in 2022. Seems like a decent strategy for a franchise that has good coaching and should field a strong all-around roster but has no near-term path to land a franchise QB.
I mean, he was much much better in '21 than he was in '20 when he was disastrous, & the Colts basically downgraded from a 1st to a 2nd in terms of trade compensation received.

Which doesn't make this a bad trade for them, but I can't imagine the demand for Wentz would be significantly worse this year than last year, so I think they definitely overpaid to begin with.