Also, maybe Ragans is legit, but Lugo probably has a better chance of being the #1 in KC than elsewhere.
Not sure why it’s scary. If superstar egos want to see the bigger headline numbers, teams will deliver them. There is no reason the Sox or any other team can’t take whatever their standard offer looks like and increase the headline number with deferrals. And it’s not like YY and his agents don’t know how to do the math to compare 10 years/$300mn with no deferrals to 10 years/$400mn with deferrals.
If he was a right-handed bat I'd have been a lot more interested, and I imagine the Red Sox would have been as well. Good for the Giants though.
It’s just scary because I want him to sign with the Red Sox. And, if the other deep-pocketed teams who are much deeper and more competitive than we are right now, start doing the deferred game so it opens up payroll/cash flow to add *one more* big-name free agent, then it increases the chances that the Sox get left out in the cold.
I think the difference is that Ohtani makes a uniquely high amount in endorsements, so deferring the bulk of his MLB salary isn't as impactful to him in the near term. We likely won't see another MLBer for a while whose outside earnings are that strong where they would be willing to agree to such extreme deferrals.
To put some numbers on this:
My understanding was that even for a heavily deferred deal like Ohtani's, the difference between the yearly salary and the calculated AAV needs to be put away into escrow anyway. So it's not like any team is going to open up additional cash flow for themselves by doing one of these deals. The Dodgers' yearly cash flow for the deferred Ohtani deal vs. a no-deferral 10/460 deal would effectively be the same.
I honestly would've thought that Judge would earn more in endorsements in such a large market being a larger than life and very likable guy. Not that $4.5M isn't a lot of money, but still.
Come on. They wanted him at a price. Beyond that price they most likely think there are better options.
I think we all knew that he would eventually meet with the Dodgers so I read this as having an "Oh boy, shit's gettin' real now" vibe. Here's my concern about the Dodgers...I think it's reasonable to think that Yamamoto has had discussion Ohtani, Yoshida and any other Japanese players (past and present) who've made the transition to MLB. Without a doubt Ohtani's contract structure affords the Dodger's the opportunity to bring in other quality players. Is it unreasonable to think that any conversations between the two included so mention of what the two of them might be able to accomplish together? Especially if Yamamoto can help stabilize the rotation while Ohtani readies himself to join him and Buehler in '25. Being part of a big three with Buehler and Ohtani is a pretty good selling point, especially when you consider the rest of the roster AND the fact that Ohtani left some meat on the bone for you.
Yeah, the simple reality is that LA can offer an awful lot. Great weather. Really good team. Proximity to Japan with lots of Japanese ex-pats. Chance to play with Ohtani. Potentially the most money. Strong branding and endorsement opportunities.
Well, the worst case scenario would be missing out on the second tier guys while waiting on them, and then missing out on the first tier guys. But, a bunch of the second tier guys should, theoretically at least, stick around to see what is left.
which probably leads to him signing with the Yankees.
Or, hopefully (if not us), Mets. This feels like a Yankees vs Dodgers battle. Hopefully Tupac wins.
Given that we’re currently trying to sign Yoshida’s immensely talented ex-teammate…give me Yoshida’s contract.
100% not a tax person but wonder if deferring may particularly benefit a Japanese citizen. At least according to HSBC in 2020 the effective tax rate for the highest bracket was 45.945%
I can't speak to a defensive comparison, but as a hitter, I'd take Yoshida every time. He's been the better hitter in a harder league (and was also the better hitter there in his age 24 season, if you'd like to make that comparison).
Here is a relevant quote from The Athletic explaining the situation:
This notion feels very unlikely. The man has a chance to join the roster of a team that would be rather impressive and for a organization that appears fully committed doing what it can to put its team in a place to win championships. I cannot imagine his ego would be bigger than that.
It’s extremely unlikely but it’s all I got! Objectively, there is very little reason to favor Boston over LA when the money is comparable. And it’ll be very hard and even more unlikely to outbid the market here by any material measure.
The Red Sox are closer than we think
Didn't people start feeling good about Bogaerts too? This can't be much of anything. Nobody thinks they've had their meeting yet.
Dont think so. Otherwise why would he be “feeling better”.
Gotta figure Lou is just too savvy to drop a deuce here.
Merloni doesn’t strike me as a guy who would post something like this unless he knows something.
I really think it’s as simple as someone on the Red Sox side telling him they are going to be very aggressive. It’s as simple as that.
I definitely don't accept this: it may prove true but we have no real idea yet on this incarnation, no?
I do think that ownership/management has targeted him and will spend significant money. I think the Yoshida connection is worth something. I also think that people undersell the Sox as a desirable destination, as I think that the record of winning over the past 20 years is way more powerful than the rebuild over the past 2. So I won't be shocked at all if the Sox get him.
He tweeted yesterday he felt the Sox were going to get Lugo, so Lou probably knows nothing.
A 39 year old who came up lame after having to play a week straight in the field. What could possibly go wrong?
Yah. Thats the thing. Lou is not the type of reporter who likes to clickbait (Engagement farm).
I’m not gonna put a whole lot of stock into it. Wouldn’t be the first time a vague-ish tweet gets everyone’s hopes up before the disappointment hits.
