threecy said:I still do not believe this is sustainable, even in the medium term. The end is near. Best case scenario, he can continue his plus performance and retire before he hits a permanent black hole similar to this spring.
I wonder what has changed, though? Some events coinciding with his surge in performance:
- Pedroia to the DL
- Napoli out of the line up
- Red Sox out of contention
Is he getting better pitches?
Of course the end is near, he'll be 40 in November. But the end may not be imminent. And since 2009, David has generally been a slow starter.threecy said:I still do not believe this is sustainable, even in the medium term. The end is near. Best case scenario, he can continue his plus performance and retire before he hits a permanent black hole similar to this spring.
I wonder what has changed, though? Some events coinciding with his surge in performance:
- Pedroia to the DL
- Napoli out of the line up
- Red Sox out of contention
Is he getting better pitches?
WenZink said:Of course the end is near, he'll be 40 in November. But the end may not be imminent. And since 2009, David has generally been a slow starter.
I suspect Ortiz will continue to be a valuable hitter until his next significant injury. And at 40, it becomes more likely that any injury is significant. But if he stays healthy in 2016, he'll make most of his PA incentives and be back to cash out in 2017.
WenZink said:Of course the end is near, he'll be 40 in November. But the end may not be imminent. And since 2009, David has generally been a slow starter.
I suspect Ortiz will continue to be a valuable hitter until his next significant injury. And at 40, it becomes more likely that any injury is significant. But if he stays healthy in 2016, he'll make most of his PA incentives and be back to cash out in 2017.
turnthe2 said:
The bolded is what is concerning. Maybe it would be reason enough to stand pat with trading bats this winter (i.e. Panda, Hanley) that could be slotted at DH should it be a long term injury.
Rasputin said:
When we got Ramirez, I pretty much assumed the point was to have him replace Ortiz at DH at some point. After all, we were going to have to replace Napoli, too and it didn't look like there was much in the way of hitters coming from the high minors.
We're a year later and a number of things have happened that impact the situation.
Ramirez has proved an absolute butcher in the field. He can probably get better, but it's unlikely he can get good.
Allen Craig has provided ample demonstration that he is, in fact, toast.
Travis Shaw has given us an indication that he might be more than just a guy.
Sam Travis has hit AA and is still hitting.
Castillo and Bradley have shown some indication that they are legitimately major league players.
David Ortiz has demonstrated that he's not done yet.
There's a lot of things there that we'd love to have a higher confidence level in, but I think there's a better chance to find an in house, non Hanley Ramirez DH than there was at the end of 2014. Heck, a year from now, we might be talking about bringing Margot up and rotating Bets, Bradley, Castillo, and Margot through the DH spot to put a little less wear and tear on each of them.
WenZink said:
Although I'm in general agreement with your points, if they move Hanley this winter and subsidize 40% of his salary, and then Ortiz ruptures his achilles in ST, the same folks that have been calling for Hanley's exile will be all over Dombrowski for screwing it up.
I'm also curious as to what the Red Sox internal analytics have to say about Hanley's defense and rate of improvement. They must have some analyst-serf charting every play to LF and have a definite number as opposed to the standard metrics. Of course, it could show he's even worse, but their continued commitment to Hanley tells me otherwise.
Rasputin said:
There's risk with everything and the nattering nabobs will always use hindsight to be correct whatever happens.
If we trade Hanley, Papi might suffer a career ending injury.
If we don't trade Hanley, we run the risk that he's a defensive liability everywhere, and that the recent decline in offense is permanent for some reason we don't yet know about.
WenZink said:
There are risks and there are risks. I'd say there's a 1 in 3 chance that our 40 year old DH goes down to a significant injury in 2016. I'd also estimate there's a 1 in 20 chance that Mookie Betts, a converted infielder, runs into one too many walls the wrong way, and suffers serious concussion problems that hurt his season and career.
One risk you plan on, the other you just cross your fingers.
I suspect, based on what we know about defensive statistics, that statistics are not the proper lens through which to make a decision as to whether and how much a player is improving defensively over the course of their first season at a new position (or, really, any season). This is almost certainly a question best answered by more traditional tools like the observations of the teams scouts and coaching staff.WenZink said:
Although I'm in general agreement with your points, if they move Hanley this winter and subsidize 40% of his salary, and then Ortiz ruptures his achilles in ST, the same folks that have been calling for Hanley's exile will be all over Dombrowski for screwing it up.
I'm also curious as to what the Red Sox internal analytics have to say about Hanley's defense and rate of improvement. They must have some analyst-serf charting every play to LF and have a definite number as opposed to the standard metrics. Of course, it could show he's even worse, but their continued commitment to Hanley tells me otherwise.
Don't forget that the Red Sox have access to Statcast, which will give them data on his reaction time and route efficiency over time.JakeRae said:I suspect, based on what we know about defensive statistics, that statistics are not the proper lens through which to make a decision as to whether and how much a player is improving defensively over the course of their first season at a new position (or, really, any season). This is almost certainly a question best answered by more traditional tools like the observations of the teams scouts and coaching staff.
I don't think that's the risk. If he goes down, they get another bat in the line up.WenZink said:
There are risks and there are risks. I'd say there's a 1 in 3 chance that our 40 year old DH goes down to a significant injury in 2016.
threecy said:I don't think that's the risk. If he goes down, they get another bat in the line up.
The risk is when his hitting falls off a cliff again and stays there. Then you go from having an elite bat in the line up to having a major liability in the line up, as well as potential clubhouse issues (he does have a history of being vocal when he doesn't get what he wants, mainly contract related).
You do understand that he's turning 40?WenZink said:
But it's not likely for Ortiz' hitting to go off the cliff. His OPS+ is very much in line with his post-peak years of 2003-2007. Ortiz is not Mike Napoli. He's one of the best hitters in the game. He was smart enough to adapt to the expanding strike zone. Worrying that Ortiz is going to go from being the Sox best hitter to one of their worst at the stroke of midnight is just being neurotic.
threecy said:You do understand that he's turning 40?
It was pretty scary when the anchor of the lineup had an OPS sitting at .670 in mid June.
He's been on a tear lately, but he's still OPS+ing 81 against LHP. Not a good sign at this stage.
Ortiz and Napoli had very different strike zones to begin with. Ortiz used to have strikes called in the right handed batter's box. I haven't seen data on it, but I bet if anything Ortiz has benefitted from the changing strike zone.WenZink said:
Ortiz is not Mike Napoli. He's one of the best hitters in the game. He was smart enough to adapt to the expanding strike zone.
What are you suggesting his 2016 OPS will roughly be?WenZink said:40 is not a cliff, it's just a point on a slope that trends downhill.
TFisNEXT said:
Ortiz has shown remarkable durability. 2012 was the exception in the past 5 years.
Yes, the injury risk does increase with each passing year...no argument there...but I'm not sure the odds of a major Ortiz injury is as high as 1 in 3. I suppose eventually there is going to be a year when Ortiz is not our best hitter.
One July, one August to a customer, even Papi.jscola85 said:Ortiz OPS by month:
April - .782
May - .624
June - .815
July - 1.017
JulyAugust - 1.114
That's some serious trending. Since the start of the 2nd half, Ortiz's 185 wRC+ ranks 6th in baseball, trailing only Votto, Encarnacion, Brantley, Cruz and Donaldson. Despite the DH ding, his 2nd half WAR of 1.8 is 21st in baseball among position players. The man is an ageless wonder it seems.
Ferm Sheller said:His 500th has to be a walk-off. It just has to.
Or, alternatively, it's the game-winning RBI in the last game of the season....which the Sox come into, after a killer September, with a record of 80-81.Ferm Sheller said:His 500th has to be a walk-off.
OTOH, there are stories about pitchers grooving balls to Mickey Mantle, for example, when he was going for 500, or maybe in his last few games. Is there also a tale about Williams getting a grooved pitch for #521 in his last game in 1960?sheamonu said:I tried not to key on this too much - at the beginning of the month I said "if he gets within 5 by the end of August - then it gets interesting". Damned if he didn't do it. Now I'm all in. Going to check in on at bats, even if it means 2 AM wake up calls. Going to get pissed if he's cheated out of at bats by people swinging at bad pitches in front of him. Curse at pitchers who pitch around him. Will the wind to blow out. The man is must see TV, a craftsman, an icon, the kind of guy you tell your kids to watch because you won't see too many like him. This is now, officially, fun.
One thing that might help push him over the line is that Ortiz has more World Series rings than everybody on that list not named Pete Rose put together.jscola85 said:FWIW, for those interested in Papi's HOF chances, his Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor score is now 138. Among guys who are eligible (ie, excluding recent retirees like Jeter), here's the list of guys ahead of him who aren't in:
Barry Bonds - 340
Pete Rose - 311
Mike Piazza - 207
Sammy Sosa - 202
Rafael Palmeiro - 178
Mark McGwire - 170
Gary Sheffield - 158
Jeff Bagwell - 150
Larry Walker - 148
So, a list of guys who've pissed off the purists (steroids or gambling), plus Piazza, Sheffield, Bagwell and Walker. Piazza and Bagwell will almost certainly get in, Walker probably won't but his #s are inflated by Coors. Sheffield is an interesting one, as he has 500 HRs, but also has been indirectly implicated in PED use like Papi. As such, he only has 12% of the vote in his first year. Not impossible to make it starting that low, but certainly a long way to go.
Now, if Ortiz can somehow manage to keep up close to what he has for another two years and approach 525-550 HRs, I don't think even the DH / PED inferences will be enough to keep him out.
Wake's knuckle said:... and Sheffield did NOT have a good relationship with the media. He was an underrated hitter though, somehow.
Savin Hillbilly said:One thing that might help push him over the line is that Ortiz has more World Series rings than everybody on that list not named Pete Rose put together.
Wake's knuckle said:... and Sheffield did NOT have a good relationship with the media. He was an underrated hitter though, somehow.
Wake's knuckle said:... and Sheffield did NOT have a good relationship with the media. He was an underrated hitter though, somehow.
Ted Williams had 521Rasputin said:
Goddamn was he terrifying, though. You could try to pitch around him and he could still hit it nine thousand feet.
The thing with Ortiz is this. If he gets 500 this year, and has another ho hum, I'll hit 30 homers at 40 year, he'll finish just 49 shy of Ted Williams.
That woul take who more healthy seasons, but if he does it at 40 do you see him stepping aside?
Buzzkill Pauley said:I just want Orsillo to make the call for Papi's 500th, as a parting gift.
The nice guy in me wants Orsillo to have that honor for years of service.
The SOB in me wants NESN to have to cue up Orsillo's voice every time there's a celebratory montage about Big Papi.
jscola85 said:FWIW, for those interested in Papi's HOF chances, his Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor score is now 138. Among guys who are eligible (ie, excluding recent retirees like Jeter), here's the list of guys ahead of him who aren't in:
Barry Bonds - 340
Pete Rose - 311
Mike Piazza - 207
Sammy Sosa - 202
Rafael Palmeiro - 178
Mark McGwire - 170
Gary Sheffield - 158
Jeff Bagwell - 150
Larry Walker - 148
So, a list of guys who've pissed off the purists (steroids or gambling), plus Piazza, Sheffield, Bagwell and Walker. Piazza and Bagwell will almost certainly get in, Walker probably won't but his #s are inflated by Coors. Sheffield is an interesting one, as he has 500 HRs, but also has been indirectly implicated in PED use like Papi. As such, he only has 12% of the vote in his first year. Not impossible to make it starting that low, but certainly a long way to go.
Now, if Ortiz can somehow manage to keep up close to what he has for another two years and approach 525-550 HRs, I don't think even the DH / PED inferences will be enough to keep him out.
kieckeredinthehead said:
Here's a list of designated hitters in the Hall of Fame:
Frank Thomas
Edgar or David has to be the first; the other will likely follow. But there's going to be a lot of "conversations" in the media before then.