Not sure, but he sure looks like the butter and jam have been heavily applied so far this season.
Ortiz. toast?
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Yeah, I think we are all familiar with some of his recent "slow starts" which it looked like he had "solved" to some degree in the last couple seasons, but he obviously deserves some time to turn it around given the track record... the offense surely needs the real Papi right about now before this thing gets away from us/someone in the AL EAST gets it going.
I feel for the guy. I hope for him that this is not the beginning of the end, because if ever there were a Red Sox I'd like to see go out on his own terms, it's Papi. Maybe the bat will wake up in Arlington this weekend and he'll find whatever it is that is missing. But when half of the middle of the order is struggling on any given night, it's hard to spark anything. If Ramirez and Papi were both hitting at their "normal" rate, weathering the Nap slump would have been easier, as would weathering the pitching inconsistency. I keep believing that this offense will, at some point, click, and when it does, watch out.
The negative side is that you probably can't just bench him for PR and clubhouse reasons and his contract vests if he reaches 425 PAs, which he is likely to reach at some point in August if he plays every day (The crummy offense is helping here by turning the lineup over less often). You know he's well aware of that number and it could get really ugly if they try to hold him out of the lineup, even if the games don't matter. And arguably, he's earned the right to get that PT (if anyone has).ivanvamp said:
If he's really "toast" (certainly a very open question), the hope is that he retires and only messes up this year.
In 2004, he was hot out of the gate.
In 2005, he was hot out of the gate.
In 2006, he was hot out of the gate.
In 2007, he was hot out of the gate.
In 2008, he snapped out of it after April and had a huge May.
In 2009, he snapped out of it after May and had a huge June.
In 2010, he snapped out of it after April and had a huge May.
In 2011, he snapped out of it after April and had a huge May.
In 2012, he was hot out of the gate.
In 2013, he was hot out of the gate.
In 2014, he was lukewarm out of the gate and had a huge May.
In 2005, he was hot out of the gate.
In 2006, he was hot out of the gate.
In 2007, he was hot out of the gate.
In 2008, he snapped out of it after April and had a huge May.
In 2009, he snapped out of it after May and had a huge June.
In 2010, he snapped out of it after April and had a huge May.
In 2011, he snapped out of it after April and had a huge May.
In 2012, he was hot out of the gate.
In 2013, he was hot out of the gate.
In 2014, he was lukewarm out of the gate and had a huge May.
David Ortiz in 2015 so far:
139 wRC+ against RHP with a .280 BABIP 14.2 K%, 16.5 BB% .219 ISO
-44 wRC+ against LHP with a .130 BABIP 20.7 K%, 0 BB% .053 ISO
Keep him away from LHPs please.
139 wRC+ against RHP with a .280 BABIP 14.2 K%, 16.5 BB% .219 ISO
-44 wRC+ against LHP with a .130 BABIP 20.7 K%, 0 BB% .053 ISO
Keep him away from LHPs please.
To maximize the DH position's effectiveness, I'd platoon him with Hanley since he's still our best hitter against righties.
That said, I hope he let's go of the artificial 500th HR goal if he really starts to fade because I think he's going to be focusing on the HoF.
That said, I hope he let's go of the artificial 500th HR goal if he really starts to fade because I think he's going to be focusing on the HoF.
Not sure where to look this up, but I remember Ortiz getting benched vs. LHPs frequently earlier in his career. Time to do so again.
grimshaw said:
I get the point, but that makes me sad. This is the downside of winning and sabermetrics. If this was 20 years ago, rather than panicking about a team that's 4 games out of first place in June, we'd be starting the Ortiz countdown to #500.
I'm the minority, I know, but I'm more interested in Ortiz ending his career with number 500 on his way to the Hall of Fame than I am in winning another World Series. I'd love to see both, obviously, but, I mean, it's Ortiz. I think it's OK to be a bit of a fanboy about him.
There's already an OF spot for Rusney. Sliding Hanley to DH means there's no every day left fielder, and one of Nava, Bradley, or Holt has to play there close to every day. Victorino can't be counted on as anything more than a platoon bat at this point in his career, nice performance in a SSS thus far notwithstanding.ivanvamp said:
Guessing Hanley slides into DH while Ortiz is out. Wondering if Rusney is back in the lineup or if we're going to see Nava, Betts and Holt in the outfield.
Thanks, just in and didn't see that. I see he's replaced with a pitcher so short bench with a struggling lineup? I guess just too many things to fix here.
The over-the-top Tony Maz smells a rat:
http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/tony-massarotti-david-ortiz-needs-few-days-i-smell-rat
John Farrell told WEEI on Thursday that David Ortiz will be out of the lineup for "a couple of days" to try and work some things out. The Red Sox open a four-game series in Texas on Thursday night.
The Red Sox' 39-year-old designated hitter went 1-for-12 in a three-game sweep by the Twins, part of a 3-for-29 slide that has seen his batting average drop to .216.
On 98.5 The Sports Hub's "Felger and Mazz" show, Tony Massarotti thinks there's something more to it than just a couple of day off for the slumping slugger to work on his swing.
"I smell a rat," Massarotti told co-host Michael Felger upon hearing the news. "This doesn't sound riight. Either they want Hanley [Ramirez] to DH because they don't want him the outfield anymore. Or Ortiz is hurt. There's something else there.
"You don't all of a sudden just take a few days off just to hit in the cage. You might give a guy one day off to do that. The guy who was your No. 3 hitter a few days ago and sit him for a two days, maybe the whole weekend?" Mazz said. "No way. Not in a million years. Never..."
http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/tony-massarotti-david-ortiz-needs-few-days-i-smell-rat
John Farrell told WEEI on Thursday that David Ortiz will be out of the lineup for "a couple of days" to try and work some things out. The Red Sox open a four-game series in Texas on Thursday night.
The Red Sox' 39-year-old designated hitter went 1-for-12 in a three-game sweep by the Twins, part of a 3-for-29 slide that has seen his batting average drop to .216.
On 98.5 The Sports Hub's "Felger and Mazz" show, Tony Massarotti thinks there's something more to it than just a couple of day off for the slumping slugger to work on his swing.
"I smell a rat," Massarotti told co-host Michael Felger upon hearing the news. "This doesn't sound riight. Either they want Hanley [Ramirez] to DH because they don't want him the outfield anymore. Or Ortiz is hurt. There's something else there.
"You don't all of a sudden just take a few days off just to hit in the cage. You might give a guy one day off to do that. The guy who was your No. 3 hitter a few days ago and sit him for a two days, maybe the whole weekend?" Mazz said. "No way. Not in a million years. Never..."
Not to defend Mazz but the Ortiz interview the other day about being dropped in the lineup was somewhat oddly muted. Normally the guy is really proud and feisty in how he describes his struggles – resisting being dropped in the order, being surly about being pinch-hit for, talking about everything he's done for the team.
This time he said almost exactly the right things but it seemed a little at odds with the player we've come to know.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/05/26/struggling-david-ortiz-dropped-order/ANk9wYwYVVbEJE8Mu8VbVN/story.html
This time he said almost exactly the right things but it seemed a little at odds with the player we've come to know.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/05/26/struggling-david-ortiz-dropped-order/ANk9wYwYVVbEJE8Mu8VbVN/story.html
Tonight's line up. Guessing Rusney is able to throw the ball or at least is preferable over Hanley even if injured.
1. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B
2. Mookie Betts (R) CF
3. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B
4. Hanley Ramirez (R) DH
5. Mike Napoli (R) 1B
6. Brock Holt (L) LF
7. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
8. Blake Swihart (S) C
9. Rusney Castillo (R) RF
If I'm correct with Nava to the DL and Bianchi DFAed this leaves a bench of Peguero, Leon and possibly Ortiz.
1. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B
2. Mookie Betts (R) CF
3. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B
4. Hanley Ramirez (R) DH
5. Mike Napoli (R) 1B
6. Brock Holt (L) LF
7. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
8. Blake Swihart (S) C
9. Rusney Castillo (R) RF
If I'm correct with Nava to the DL and Bianchi DFAed this leaves a bench of Peguero, Leon and possibly Ortiz.
YTF said:
Still don't understand why they don't flip Holt and Betts. Left hand hitting BROCKHOLT should be batting second when he plays.
GaryPeters71 said:
if they want Hanley to DH that's not a problem that gets fixed by giving Ortiz day(s) off, that's a problem that gets fixed by not playing Ortiz, period.
It seems to me like they've identified a swing problem with Ortiz, especially vs LHP, and want him to work on it for enough time that he doesn't fall back into old habits in game action. You can't exactly hide him from LHP given that it's an obvious move to use a lefty reliever against him, and it's probably more demoralizing to PH for him or to see him continue to struggle than to give him a few extra days to get it right, especially at his age.
That he's not complaining vocally about this suggests he buys into the proposed solution, which is good.
The difference in OPS v. righties between the two of them is less than you might think (.732 v. .800). Might not be worth shuffling the kid around the lineup for the incremental gain involved.geoduck no quahog said:
O Captain! My Captain! said:
It must be enough of a problem that they want him benched on Friday against Yovani Gallardo, versus whom Ortiz has an OPS of 1.625 in 8 plate appearances (4 H, 1 HR, 0 Ks).
While watching Ranger feed of the game (watching the MLB EI), the tv announce team noticed Papi & Chili looking over pics of his feet stances having 2 different types both now and when his was really swinging/hitting well & then talking like that might be the issue for him...but like I said this was Texas talk & thier cameras looking into the dugouts...O Captain! My Captain! said:
It's a results driven business. Papi will get more than enough opportunities to get those results. It's inevitable he won't at some point. He is at the end of a magnificent career. But it seems to the naked eye that he has had more trouble getting the ball in the air lately. The shift is killing him and LHP truly own him. For the better of the team, platooning might be the best option, like it or not.
mauidano said:
It feels like the shift is killing him more this year than in years past. Maybe teams are getting better at doing it, but it seems to me like he's pulling the ball more than he used to, even on the ground. Part of his resurgence into a tremendously good hitter despite his age feels like it came after the Adrian Gonzalez acquisition as Papi went the other way more both to beat the shift and with power. Obviously being able to go the other way and still maintain an aggressive approach and pull power is difficult, and his seeming inability to do so is probably a sign of diminishing skills as well as approach and mechanics, but I'd expect that part of what he's working on is regaining his ability to hit to all fields more. Given this issue would be exacerbated by left handed pitchers (pulling off the ball, etc), we might hope for some improvement on both those counts.
Perhaps indicative of his performance when there isn't a shift (or is less of a shift), Ortiz has hit much better with runners on (just from looking at his stats 2012-14).
In 2015, he's been a black hole with runners on (.529 OPS vs. .794 with bases empty). This suggests to me that it may not be the shift, but rather pitching selection and him pushing too hard.
In 2015, he's been a black hole with runners on (.529 OPS vs. .794 with bases empty). This suggests to me that it may not be the shift, but rather pitching selection and him pushing too hard.
He has .892 OPS against righthanders. At his age, that's still pretty good.
The problem has been Ortiz vs LHPs.
The problem has been Ortiz vs LHPs.
That's manageable. There is a big difference in quantity of RHPs vs. LHPs in MLB. For example, this year, Sox at bats against RHP: 1249, against LHP: 454. Bench Ortiz against LHPs if the huge vs. lefty splits continue. A disadvantage is that, along with Pablo's helplessness against lefties, this wakes up the dumbest opposing manager to do everything to reserve lefties to pitch against Boston.AB in DC said:
But I think AB/DC's point is that the 2 for 4 with a double means nothing with respect to what he learned by being out of the lineup for 2 days.
It's not just LHPs; it's just fastball from LHPs. Before his two days off, Ortiz had two (2) hits against the 107 LHP fastballs that were in the strike zone.AB in DC said:
I put a bunch more charts up at David Ortiz Struggles With Fastballs From Left Handers, comparing to 2014 as well as to his early 2009 slump. The latter wasn't exactly like this one -- for one thing it was worse, and for another his struggles were a little more evenly distributed, with RHP fastballs being more of a problem.
In the context of this chart, while there's very little significance to his going 2 for 4 with a double since his return, there's very slightly more significance to the fact that those hits were off LHP fastballs.
I'm not a video analysis kind of guy, so I don't know if he's had a mechanical issue that he's corrected, but I'm very cautiously optimistic that this has been a slump with mechanical issues, rather than just falling off the aging cliff.
Hagios said:
I don't think David's dumb enough to let that fly or tentative enough to not make a stink out of it. That's also no way to treat the face of your franchise for over the past decade, particularly if he's performing well enough to deserve ABs against RHP. They signed the contract w/the vesting options and they should try to weasel their way out of it. Low brow move, IMO.
He's got a 526 OPS so far in June after a .624 May.
He and Sandoval are killing the middle of the lineup
Time to flip flop him with Xander? More time in the cage? They are facing a lefty tomorrow so I would think he would mercifully have another breather.
He and Sandoval are killing the middle of the lineup
Time to flip flop him with Xander? More time in the cage? They are facing a lefty tomorrow so I would think he would mercifully have another breather.
yes, would like to see Ortiz get a day off tomorrow. Probably depends on whether Hanley can play.grimshaw said:
grimshaw said:
The first 9 days of June is a tiny and arbitrary sample that is ultimately meaningless. Ortiz has 28 Plate Appearances in June. So small a sample, a first inning homerun today would raise his OPS to .702 and completely destroy the supporting data.
I agree that Ortiz's role with the team needs changed. At minimum for the short-term. The first thing they need to do is sit him against LHP.
My point is that he has been shitty for an extended period (hence including May in the post), and June includes the time after his benching when we would have hoped for a bounce back of longer than a game or two.natpastime162 said:
If Mike Napoli was terrible until fixing his swing, and we took the next 7 games after that, the data would have meaning.
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