Ortiz. toast?
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
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None of us should be surprised that the careers of top professional athletes often end badly.
These are individuals who have defied the odds to excel at their chosen sport for decades. More importantly, they have become accustomed to the unique rhythms of life as a pro athlete, and are often ill-prepared for what follows. If I were a pro athlete, I would absolutely hang on until the bitter end and I can't kill Ortiz or anyone for doing the same.
The tricky part is that it's not clear that Ortiz is done. His numbers against right handers are still strong. At the same time, his inability to be even marginally competent against lefties is a strong sign that we're at the beginning of the end. If the team begins to pick up their play in the next few weeks, Ortiz against lefties is a luxury we can't afford and I hope that Farrell is willing to do what is necessary.
These are individuals who have defied the odds to excel at their chosen sport for decades. More importantly, they have become accustomed to the unique rhythms of life as a pro athlete, and are often ill-prepared for what follows. If I were a pro athlete, I would absolutely hang on until the bitter end and I can't kill Ortiz or anyone for doing the same.
The tricky part is that it's not clear that Ortiz is done. His numbers against right handers are still strong. At the same time, his inability to be even marginally competent against lefties is a strong sign that we're at the beginning of the end. If the team begins to pick up their play in the next few weeks, Ortiz against lefties is a luxury we can't afford and I hope that Farrell is willing to do what is necessary.
The Allented Mr Ripley said:
Yeah, that's probably it...the 298 average. Of course his treatment of his body like an amusement park meant that his age 33-36 seasons (when Ortiz -- and Mays -- were killing it) brought his BA down. He still managed OPS+ of 137, 170, 149 and 143 in his decrepitude.
Al Kaline retired at .297 (255 and 262 in his age 38 and 39 seasons; 630 PAs at a 107 OPS+ at age 39....not too shabby. ). I only know that because Roger Angell (I think) did an essay about an obsessed Tigers fan obsessed with Kaline's lifetime BA vs his run for 3000 hits.
Sorry for the hijack.
I think/hope that will be a post-ASG adjustment by the manager. But probably not before.
If you look at Rice and Dewey, it was a similar story, in that they were still good vs. LHP (as RHB) but increasingly bad vs. RHP.
OPS: RHP/LHP
Jim Rice
1986: .837/.972
1987: .764/.770
1988: .694/.827
1989: .591/.691
1990: Retired
Dwight Evans
1989: .864/.853
1990: .711/.797
1991: .725/.832
1992: Retired
Just for the heck of it
Jack Clark:
1990: .850/1.208
1991: .787/.994
1992: .525/.881
1993: Retired
One can make the argument that those RHB were at a disadvantage at the end as compared to a LHB in terms of PA per opposite throwing arm (ie a LHB can sit LHP and still get a significant amount of PA, whereas a RHB sitting LHP is sitting a heck of a lot). Nonetheless, those anecdotes of elder Red Sox power hitters past show the decrease in performance against same armside while still hitting the opposite armside as an indicator of the end.
OPS: RHP/LHP
Jim Rice
1986: .837/.972
1987: .764/.770
1988: .694/.827
1989: .591/.691
1990: Retired
Dwight Evans
1989: .864/.853
1990: .711/.797
1991: .725/.832
1992: Retired
Just for the heck of it
Jack Clark:
1990: .850/1.208
1991: .787/.994
1992: .525/.881
1993: Retired
One can make the argument that those RHB were at a disadvantage at the end as compared to a LHB in terms of PA per opposite throwing arm (ie a LHB can sit LHP and still get a significant amount of PA, whereas a RHB sitting LHP is sitting a heck of a lot). Nonetheless, those anecdotes of elder Red Sox power hitters past show the decrease in performance against same armside while still hitting the opposite armside as an indicator of the end.
snowmanny said:
Hell, pitchers as a group hit better than that:
Ortiz vs. LHP: .115/.123/.154 (.119 wOBA)
All pitchers vs. LHP: .109/.144/.130 (.127 wOBA)
Between HRam's fielding exploits, Papi's numbers against lefties, and De Aza's rebirth (and potentially Victorino returning, before he pulls his hamstring yet again) there is no reason HRam not to play DH against lefties. It makes sense on so many levels. Not doing this is equivalent to managerial malpractice. And I don't care if Papi is proud, the sample is bad enough and big enough to make anyone pay attention.
Isn't part of the problem that teams are regularly sending in lefty relievers to face Ortiz? So even in a game with a right handed starter, he's facing a lefty for 1-2 at bats.
Sitting him against a lefty starter is one thing. Pinch hitting for him with....who?....is quite another.
Sitting him against a lefty starter is one thing. Pinch hitting for him with....who?....is quite another.
In my lifetime said:
It's certainly really, really bad, but no, it is not big enough to draw any conclusions. 80 plate appearances is a puny sample size.
As others have noted it seems Ortiz is swinging for the fences on every pitch. I think the guy wants to get his 500 homeruns and then hang up.
Remember how many guys were supposed to have a wRC+ over 115 by Steamer projections?
The problem is that he is hitting just well enough to keep his everyday job on this particular team and he's a DH.
And as BMHH alluded to, who even pinch hits for him?
The rest of the lineup was supposed to hit so well that he wouldn't even need to have one of his typical years where he carried the offense.
The problem is that he is hitting just well enough to keep his everyday job on this particular team and he's a DH.
And as BMHH alluded to, who even pinch hits for him?
The rest of the lineup was supposed to hit so well that he wouldn't even need to have one of his typical years where he carried the offense.
But if a sample shows such an outlier, isn't it more reasonable to assume its not meaningless? In other words, if he hits .250 against lefties, that's not enough to conclude that he couldn't actually hit .300 over a larger sample, but if he hits .115, that's more likely to indicate that he can't actually hit .300, isn't it?Plympton91 said:
jscola85 said:
He looked about that bad at the Bash game against Cecil, may be something with Cecil's motion.
Philip Jeff Frye said:
Also, some rate stats stabilize quicker than others. Among the quicker are K and BB rate. 82 PA isn't enough for either of them, but it's not that far off either (150 for K, 200 for BB according to this article). Ortiz' K/BB rate vs. LHP right now is a staggering 18/1. And it's not that he's striking out all that much (22%); it's that he's virtually never walking (1.2%), which means that either he has lost all semblance of plate discipline vs. LHP, or they just aren't afraid to throw him strikes anymore--a conclusion which his failure to go yard even once vs. LHP so far this year would certainly seem to support.
Since there's a good chance the Red Sox won't be competitive in 2015, trotting him out there everyday isn't going to hurt the team much at this point.
The real issue may be in 2016 with a vested option and a renewed shot at the team winning. I think there's a good chance that 2016 40 year old David Ortiz won't be as good as 39 year old David Ortiz.
The real issue may be in 2016 with a vested option and a renewed shot at the team winning. I think there's a good chance that 2016 40 year old David Ortiz won't be as good as 39 year old David Ortiz.
And he's getting worse. His numbers in June vs. lefties (a Vantastic slice of data) are .059/.105/.059, 1 single in 17 ABs, plus a walk and a sac fly. 6 Ks.
Can we find a minor league lefty that can throw BP to him to help him turn it around?
edit: left out yesterday's game
Can we find a minor league lefty that can throw BP to him to help him turn it around?
edit: left out yesterday's game
MakMan44 said:
2016 Ortiz will be 40. It's naive to think he'll continue to produce indefinitely.
MakMan44 said:
Age is enough. When a player is as old as Ortiz, the default assumption should be that he'll be worse next year. The burden of proof should be on those who argue that he won't.
That doesn't necessarily mean that he'll "fall of a cliff," but the older he gets, the more likely that becomes.
Remember how Alex Rodriguez was so washed up nobody should even think about paying any of his contract to take him off the Yankees hands?
Ortiz is a superstar; lots of them are productive at 40 and beyond, especially ones who are still productive at 39.
He has a 930 OPS against righties, he can be "worse" and still be really good. Much better than anyone they're going to replace him with.
The idea that we need to ditch a still highly productive Ortiz in order to open up DH so JBJ has an outfield position is silly.
Ortiz is a superstar; lots of them are productive at 40 and beyond, especially ones who are still productive at 39.
He has a 930 OPS against righties, he can be "worse" and still be really good. Much better than anyone they're going to replace him with.
The idea that we need to ditch a still highly productive Ortiz in order to open up DH so JBJ has an outfield position is silly.
It's really not. Ortiz is a top 30 bat against RHP this season (by wRC+/qualified PAs) in all of baseball. #11 in the AL.Savin Hillbilly said:
It's absolute insanity that people want to play PT games to make sure that his option doesn't vest when he's been that fucking good this season.
MakMan44 said:
The option is going to vest, the tension is going to come from the fact that the salary is tied to an increasing scale of at bats. It can be anywhere from $12 million to $16 million as he goes from 425 to 600 plate appearances. So, Ortiz is going to want every single one he can get.
MakMan44 said:
I know how good he is this year. My point, which you did not address, is that because of his age, the most likely scenario is that he won't be as good next year.
That doesn't mean it's impossible that he'll be as good, or even better, next year. It just means that the smart money would be against it.
Lots of superstars are productive at and beyond 40? Source (not including steroid era)?Plympton91 said:
I think the sudden drop off against opposite arm pitchers is a sign of impending overall decline.
And, of course, a high majority of pitchers are right handed, so that's the good handedness split if you have an Ortiz. Third time through, or whenever, the other team will put in a lefty to face him, but that's the way it goes.Plympton91 said:
Al Zarilla said:
But the split only goes so far when you're as bad vs. LHP as he's been. His overall wRC+ is 94. He's a below-average hitter. A DH who is a below-average hitter is a replacement-level player.
And platooning him is a problematic fix, because a platoon DH is a roster issue. If you aren't a good enough hitter to play against everybody, then you should at least be able to contribute something on the defensive end. Back when teams carried 10 pitchers, you could get away with carrying a guy who was good at hitting RHP and basically nothing else. These days, not so much.
Savin Hillbilly said:
If Victorino were healthy, or Farrell didn't prefer De Aza to Castillo, or Allen Craig had been even the minimally competent player he was during the first half of last season in St. Louis, they'd have a perfect platoon situation whereby one of those three plays the OF and Hanley DHs against lefties, and when a RH is on the mound you have a flexible 4th outfielder or utility player who's also a really good hitter against lefties. And in a really important situation, Craig or Victorino could probably even be used to pinch hit for Ortiz against a LH, without him spewing too much venom for fear of sounding like he was dissing a respected veteran teammate.
Plympton91 said:
There have been 25 seasons in the history of baseball where a guy that was 40 or older had an OPS+ of 100 or better. Of those, 3 are Luke Appling's age 40, 41, and 42 seasons and 3 more are Sam Rice's age 40, 41, and 42 seasons. Darrell Evans, Dave Winfield, and Honus Wagner all did it twice (Wagner at 41-42, the others 40-41). So that leaves a whopping total of 13 other guys that did it once. It's not common. This is in 114 seasons of baseball.
And only 37 players have ever had an OPS+ of 100 or more at age 39. Many of those are on the previous list. You even have such luminaries as Barry Bonds, who got hurt at age 40. And Babe Ruth who fell off of a cliff at age 40 and retired. There's no guarantee, no matter how good you are, that going from 39 to 40 is going to mean continued-at-slightly-reduced excellence. Or even mediocrity.
Torii Hunter is 39 and having a better season than Papi. Is it likely he's going to have a good season at age 40?
While I agree Ortiz may not fall off a cliff, there's plenty of evidence in 114 years of history that says otherwise.
DanoooME said:
You're looking at the unconditional mean though. Most players are retired by their late-mid-30s because they're not good enough anymore. The correct comparison is to look at the set of players who had an OPS+ of (whatever) at age 39, and then see what their average OPS+ at age 40 was. That's the projection for Ortiz next year, not a projection based however minimally on the fact that Kevin Cash "retired" at age 34 (which is what your 37 players in 114 years is ostensibly doing).
Nowadays, it seems that most teams rotate different guys through the DH slot, so maybe the Sox gravitate to that while Ortiz is still here. With the rosters longer in pitching nowadays, it does make for a thinner bench on the days when he's not playing, true. Or, keep sending him out there and hope he gets it back vs. LHPs. Another thing, does he throw a fit when he's benched against lefty starters? That's why they pay Farrell the big bucks, I guess.Savin Hillbilly said:
I never appeal to numbers and there are several instances of the type that I use to try to soft pedal and differ with numeric assertions.
114 years of baseball...there has been many changes and eras that aren' t relevant for this currant edition of "
Baseball"
the reversal of weight training as making players " muscle bound"
A large well prepared staff of trainers.
Drs on staff...medical and surgical advances readily available for players
Players are bigger and stronger...
We all know many other differences that would obviate comparisons between eras...
If Papi really trains for baseball his decline should be imperceptible
i am speaking from the high mountain of arrogance...could be some truth tho'.
114 years of baseball...there has been many changes and eras that aren' t relevant for this currant edition of "
Baseball"
the reversal of weight training as making players " muscle bound"
A large well prepared staff of trainers.
Drs on staff...medical and surgical advances readily available for players
Players are bigger and stronger...
We all know many other differences that would obviate comparisons between eras...
If Papi really trains for baseball his decline should be imperceptible
i am speaking from the high mountain of arrogance...could be some truth tho'.
snowmanny said:
Yaz was over 100 in 4 of 5 seasons from age 39 to 43. Age 42 he was 111 with 523 plate appearances, so even if it only counts years with enough to qualify for the batting title that one should be there. In his age 40 season against righthanded pitchers, he slashed .290 / .370 / .482
Not sure what AB threshold Danoo was using.
George Brett had an overall OPS+ of 94 as a 40 year old (though with a BABip of .269, and down only from a 102 and 101 as a 38 and 39 year old), but he, like Ortiz, had declined against lefthanders and that overall OPS was dragged down as he was still a mostly full time player (612 PA). Like Yaz though, he remained nearly elite against RH pitching, with a slash line of 295 / 344 / 501 against them as a 40 year old.
Is Harold Baines
considered the steroid era? He was at 114, 136, 103 from age 39 to 41 respectively.
Raul Ibanez, 91, 103, 123, from age 39 to 41, respectively.
Looking at some HOF righthanded hitters:
Do we think Paul Molitor used PEDs in his final years? He was 101, 116, 104 from age 38, 39, and 40 respectively.
Carlton Fisk, 103, 155, 136, 134 from age 39 to 42, respectively. Did he start using PEDs at age 40? Never heard any rumors of that being true.
So, while there is a history of once great sluggers "losing it" against same-side hurlers, this list shows several HOFers and HoVGers who were still good at age 39 maintaining above average production in a platoon role through age 40.
...if it happens to "most" by their mid to late 30s, it'll certainly happen to the rest by their late 30s or early 40s, which is where Ortiz is headed...Plympton91 said:
Well, both are approaches, it just depends on whether you think Ortiz would have a different aging curve than other players, which he has relative to the overall population of baseball players, who tend to "age-out" well before 40. However, the nice thing about baseball is that you don't have to look at samples, we have the population data for every baseball season that a player had in his age-40 season, so it's reasonable to use that data to describe a mean of performance for players who are forty. If you want to subset that further because you think that Ortiz should be different from them (like how you suggest, using his numbers from this year to identify people who performed at least as well as Ortiz in their age-39 season, and then comparing to them), you can do that too.Plympton91 said:
However, I think you pointed out the reason that those numbers probably wouldn't be much different, in that the number of guys who performed worse than Ortiz at 39 but still played at 40 is probably very small.
There was an article on Hardball Times entering the 2014 season about how hard Papi was to project using Pecota since he had so few comps. Basically he broke the system because it said he wouldn't drop below replacement level until 2026. Unfortunately . . here he is now.pokey_reese said:
Here's a list of guys from the 80's or later who played less physically demanding positions and maintained usefulness into their early 40's. These are for their age 38 to the end of their careers. There aren't a lot guys who hovered at a wRC+ of 100 and decided to keep going.
-Molitor was one exception, and one thing he had going for him was that he was still an excellent base runner and could play the field in a pinch, so could contribute there.
-Palmeiro, probably because of PEDs
-Yaz has been documented before. He was never awful with the bat, even in his 40's and he did at least concede playing time over that span.
-Hank Aaron hung around a season after his wRC+ 98 and was basically the same.
-Winfield and Murray seemed to be the worst of this crew in terms of self awareness that their careers were over.
-Also . .wow Brian Downing.
Baines
Age 38 1997 wRC+ 118
Age 39 1998 wRC+ 115
Age 40 1999 wRC+ 135
Age 41 2000 wRC+ 89
Age 42 2001 wRC+ -10
Thome
Age 38 2008 wRC+ 122
Age 39 2009 wRC+ 119
Age 40 2010 wRC+177
Age 41 2011 wRC+ 129
Age 42 2012 wRC+ 112
Molitor
Age 38 1994 wRC+ 139
Age 39 1995 wRC+ 102
Age 40 1996 wRC+ 114
Age 41 1997 w/RC+ 99
Age 42 1998 wRC+ 82
Palmeiro
Age 38 2002 wRC+ 143
Age 39 2003 wRC+ 119
Age 40 2004 wRC+ 105
Age 41 2005 wRC+ 107
Downing
Age 38 1989 wRC+120
Age 39 1990 wRC+ 138
Age 40 1991 wRC+ 131
Age 41 1992 wRC+ 142
Yaz
Age 39 1979 wRC+ 105
Age 40 1980 wRC+ 115
Age 41 1981 wRC+ 98
Age 42 1982 wRC+ 113
Age 43 1983 wRC+ 105
Darrell Evans
Age 38 1985 wRC+ 137
Age 39 1986 wRC+ 121
Age 40 1987 wRC+ 132
Age 41 1988 wRC+ 108
Age 42 1989 wRC+ 80
Edgar
Age 38 2001 wRC+ 157
Age 39 2002 wRC+ 141
Age 40 2003 wRC+ 142
Age 41 2004 wRC+ 92
Hank Aaron
Age 38 1972 wRC+ 148
Age 39 1973 wRC+ 177
Age 40 1974 wRC+ 125
Age 41 1975 wRC+ 98
Age 42 1976 wRC+ 102
Frank Thomas
Age 38 2006 wRC+ 139
Age 39 2007 wRC+ 127
Age 40 2008 wRC+ 101
Winfield
Age 38 1989 DNP
Age 39 1990 wRC+ 121
Age 40 1991 wRC+ 118
Age 41 1992 wRC+ 140
Age 42 1993 wRC+ 103
Age 43 1994 wRC+ 86
Age 44 1995 wRC+ 48
Chili Davis
Age 38 1998 wRC+ 116
Age 39 1999 wRC+ 109
Ellis Burks
Age 38 2002 wRC+ 139
Age 39 2003 wRC+ 110
Age 40 2004 wRC+ 43
Gary Sheffield
Age 38 2006 wRC+ 107
Age 39 2007 wRC+ 123
Age 40 2008 wRC+ 92
Age 41 2009 wRC+ 122
Eddie Murray
Age 38 1994 wRC+ 81
Age 39 1995 wRC+ 128
Age 40 1996 wRC+ 85
Age 41 1997 wRC+ 56
Dave Parker
Age 38 1989 wRC+ 108
Age 39 1990 wRC+ 114
Age 40 1991 wRC+ 79
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