Ortiz. toast?

[ivanvamp]

 
The first 9 days of June is a tiny and arbitrary sample that is ultimately meaningless.  Ortiz has 28 Plate Appearances in June.  So small a sample, a first inning homerun today would raise his OPS to .702 and completely destroy the supporting data.
 
I agree that Ortiz's role with the team needs changed.  At minimum for the short-term.  The first thing they need to do is sit him against LHP.

 
Sit him vs. LHP, put Hanley at DH in those situations.  Improves two spots at once.  
 
I don't think he's suddenly and completely lost it overnight, but I think expecting him to be the David Ortiz of old is just wishful thinking.  
 
Last four years' worth of stats for Ortiz:
 
2012:  .318/.418/.611/1.026, 173 ops+ (just 90 games)
2013:  .309/.395/.564/.959, 159 ops+
2014:  .263/.355/.517/.873, 143 ops+
2015:  .219/.297/.372/.670, 88 ops+
 
So clearly the trend is down, but still, the 2014-15 dropoff is a cliff.  Best way to get him going is to sit him vs. LHP and let him go after the righties.  

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

His foot was in the bucket in the 8th inning AB. Terribly out of synch. Shoulder flying open.
 
I wonder if he's late on fastballs and thus is cheating to catch up to them, only to be fooled on off-speed and out of the zone stuff. In any case he looks lost.

 

[glennhoffmania]

His foot was in the bucket in the 8th inning AB. Terribly out of synch. Shoulder flying open.
 
I wonder if he's late on fastballs and thus is cheating to catch up to them, only to be fooled on off-speed and out of the zone stuff. In any case he looks lost.

 
I noticed the same thing.  His swing looks awful at times, especially against lefties.  He had no chance on anything on the outer half.  I'd love to see him focus on going the other way as much as possible to try to stay on the ball longer.

 

[ivanvamp]

Ortiz' last 18 games have been nothing short of horrific.
 
.188/.250/.39/.569, .203 babip, 1 hr, 7 rbi, numbers that would put him on pace for a 9 hr, 63 rbi season
 
SSS and all, but my goodness, what a horrible small sample size.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
I noticed the same thing.  His swing looks awful at times, especially against lefties.  He had no chance on anything on the outer half.  I'd love to see him focus on going the other way as much as possible to try to stay on the ball longer.

 
I know he loves the long ball (well chicks do too), but he is (or has been) a talented enough hitter that if he really wanted to go the other way, I should think he could do it.  It wouldn't take too many slap hits to the left side of the infield before opposing teams started loosening up on the shift.
 
For the life of me I cannot understand why he won't do this.  Then again, I can't understand Ted Williams' stubbornness on this very same issue.  His power numbers may have suffered by doing so, but man, the guy could have hit .400 every year.

 

[threecy]

I wonder how he's looking in batting practice?
 
And, if he's lost there too, then perhaps a phantom DL until the ASB?

 

[MakMan44]

I wonder how he's looking in batting practice?
 
And, if he's lost there too, then perhaps a phantom DL until the ASB?

So, they're supposed to place him on the DL for about a month. How's that going help him mechanically, at all? 

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

So, they're supposed to place him on the DL for about a month. How's that going help him mechanically, at all? 

 
It wouldn't - and because of his vesting option there's no way Papi would agree to it.
 
However, I think we know who the next client of Dustin Pedroia, Batting Consultant should be. 

 

[threecy]

So, they're supposed to place him on the DL for about a month. How's that going help him mechanically, at all? 

 

 
It wouldn't - and because of his vesting option there's no way Papi would agree to it.

My caveat was if he's also looking lost in batting practice - in other words, if his struggles go beyond game situations.
 
Thus far, marching him out there everyday isn't helping him, and certainly isn't helping the team.  Of qualified DHs, he's second to last in OBP, SLG, and OPS.  All but three qualified DHs have WARs of 1.0 or greater.  Ortiz is at -0.3 WAR.
 
If he doesn't snap out of it soon, something is going to need to be done.

 

[natpastime162]

My point is that he has been shitty for an extended period (hence including May in the post), and June includes the time after his benching when we would have hoped for a bounce back of longer than a game or two.
 
If Mike Napoli was terrible until fixing his swing, and we took the next 7 games after that, the data would have meaning.

Yes, it would have meaning. SSS remains, but now the data is being presented in the context of a physical adjustment.

 

[MakMan44]

 
My caveat was if he's also looking lost in batting practice - in other words, if his struggles go beyond game situations.
 
Thus far, marching him out there everyday isn't helping him, and certainly isn't helping the team.  Of qualified DHs, he's second to last in OBP, SLG, and OPS.  All but three qualified DHs have WARs of 1.0 or greater.  Ortiz is at -0.3 WAR.
 
If he doesn't snap out of it soon, something is going to need to be done.

Still a dumb excuse to bench a guy for month without a real reason. 

 

[threecy]

Still a dumb excuse to bench a guy for month without a real reason. 

...so the solution is to just keep him in the starting lineup indefinitely, hoping that he'll magically start hitting again?

All Major League hitters reach the end of the line at or before their 40s.  At his age, every slump could well be the end of his career.

 

[DJnVa]

 
Thus far, marching him out there everyday isn't helping him, and certainly isn't helping the team.  Of qualified DHs, he's second to last in OBP, SLG, and OPS.  All but three qualified DHs have WARs of 1.0 or greater.  Ortiz is at -0.3 WAR.

 
He's numbers (OPS) against RHP are better than last season, it's just that he's so bad against lefties right now. Sitting him against RHP doesn't seem to make sense.

 

[joyofsox]

I knew he was bad against lefties, but I admit to being shocked at the split:
 
vs RHP: .278/.387/.492/.879 (150 PA)
vs LHP: .114/.111/.157/.268 (72 PA)

 

[grimshaw]

He certainly is a much more effective hitter when going opposite field
Here are his splits:
Pull - .203/.492/.695 wRC+83 in 63 at bats with 5 home runs (BABIP of .136 because of all those grounders into that damn shift)
Center - .262/.359/.621 wRC+65 in 64 at bats with 1 home run (BABIP of .250)
Opposite - .371/.559/.930 wRC+155 in 34 at bats with no home runs but 6 doubles.  (BABIP of .371 . . .hmm)
 
My theory is that he doesn't have the power to go out of the park anywhere other than to right field so he keeps trying to yank the ball to hit an eleventy two run homer rather than take the single or double opposite field.

 

[DJnVa]

 
I knew he was bad against lefties, but I admit to being shocked at the split:
 
vs RHP: .278/.387/.492/.879 (150 PA)
vs LHP: .114/.111/.157/.268 (72 PA)
 

 
 
Yeah, that .879 OPS is better than last season against RHP. The issue isn't some overall decline--it's a decline against LHP only.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
 
Yeah, that .879 OPS is better than last season against RHP. The issue isn't some overall decline--it's a decline against LHP only.

 
Given that, Farrell is in a really tough spot because the smart thing to do is to PH for him late in games when they bring in a lefty reliever.  That probably won't go over too well.  But he can't continue to let a guy hit in that spot who makes an out almost 90% of the time.

 

[gryoung]

Hopefully, Papi will find the problem and correct it thusly leading to much improved performance.

But ........if the problems/lack of production continue, the manager needs to make the decision on playing time. This could get very ugly, especially if the needed ABs aren't trending towards his magic number for the next contract to kick in.

I don't see Papi going quietly. Unfortunately. If he's concerned about official scoring decisions, imagine how this would go.

 

[TheYaz67]

My theory is that he doesn't have the power to go out of the park anywhere other than to right field so he keeps trying to yank the ball to hit an eleventy two run homer rather than take the single or double opposite field.

 
My theory is that his personal need for 28 more home runs is overwhelming the team need to concede to tougher pitchers/lefties and settle for singles and doubles the other way, so indeed too much swinging for the RF fences....
 
He is striking out looking on pitches away (like last night), because he doesn't want that pitch - can't be driven into the (RF) stands.  I hope this is not the case, but (past) evidence exists of him focusing on his own stats too much some times, despite also generally being an acknowledged "team leader/guy".

 

[DJnVa]

 
Given that, Farrell is in a really tough spot because the smart thing to do is to PH for him late in games when they bring in a lefty reliever.  That probably won't go over too well.  But he can't continue to let a guy hit in that spot who makes an out almost 90% of the time.

 
Sure, but per fangraphs, nothing is stabilized except K rate with this few PAs, and his K rate is up from last year against LHP, but not ridiculously so (16.4% last year, 19.4% this year).
 
His BABIP against LHP is .143. Why isn't he just seen as unlucky here?
 

 

[Hagios]

I don't know
 

 
My theory is that his personal need for 28 more home runs is overwhelming the team need to concede to tougher pitchers/lefties and settle for singles and doubles the other way, so indeed too much swinging for the RF fences....
 
He is striking out looking on pitches away (like last night), because he doesn't want that pitch - can't be driven into the (RF) stands.  I hope this is not the case, but (past) evidence exists of him focusing on his own stats too much some times, despite also generally being an acknowledged "team leader/guy".

 
I'm not so sure. Most lefty power hitters seem to be pull hitters and relatively few of them have been able to start pushing balls out to left field even with the rise of defensive shifts. This article about Ted Williams is interesting because he is about as thoughtful of a hitter as you could imagine, and he took years to change his approach against the shift until he figured out a way to do it without dramatically changing his swing.
 
I suspect that the arms race will continue to evolve and a new generation of lefty hitters will build their swings around going the other way, but for many hitters today, it may not be pride. It may just be that it's too late to teach an old dog new tricks.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
Sure, but per fangraphs, nothing is stabilized except K rate with this few PAs, and his K rate is up from last year against LHP, but not ridiculously so (16.4% last year, 19.4% this year).
 
His BABIP against LHP is .143. Why isn't he just seen as unlucky here?
 

 
Well there's also the eye test, and like SJH pointed out earlier, he's looked terrible against lefties- bailing out, timing is way off, etc.

 

[oumbi]

 
I knew he was bad against lefties, but I admit to being shocked at the split:
 
vs RHP: .278/.387/.492/.879 (150 PA)
vs LHP: .114/.111/.157/.268 (72 PA)
 

I most certainly am NOT good at stats, but would someone explain why, versus left handers, Otiz's BA is higher than his OBP? 

 

[grimshaw]

I most certainly am NOT good at stats, but would someone explain why, versus left handers, Otiz's BA is higher than his OBP? 

Sac fly.  Doesn't count as an AB but penalizes OBP.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

 
Sure, but per fangraphs, nothing is stabilized except K rate with this few PAs, and his K rate is up from last year against LHP, but not ridiculously so (16.4% last year, 19.4% this year).
 
His BABIP against LHP is .143. Why isn't he just seen as unlucky here?
 

I think the low BABIP in this case might be more of a function of hitting into the shift more frequently or perhaps more accurately, no longer being able to beat the shift as consistently as he used to. Is that bad luck, or is that an inability to make an adjustment? Or a little from column a, little from column b?

 

[DJnVa]

 
Well there's also the eye test, and like SJH pointed out earlier, he's looked terrible against lefties- bailing out, timing is way off, etc.

 
 
Granted, but if he was getting even decent "luck" with BABIP against LHP, say around .285 (which is much lower than last year), his overall average would be closer to .260, and while we'd still wanting him to get going, it wouldn't look quite so dire.
 
Just looking at numbers, it seems like he's not seeing the ball well. When ahead in the count and he should be able to zero in, he's hitting .239. The average ML hitter hits something like .340.
 

 

[AB in DC]

 
Given that, Farrell is in a really tough spot because the smart thing to do is to PH for him late in games when they bring in a lefty reliever.  That probably won't go over too well.  But he can't continue to let a guy hit in that spot who makes an out almost 90% of the time.

 
Normally I'd agree, but it's not like there's a very good RHB on the bench to fill his spot.  It's basically De Aza or whoever Brock Holt is replacing on a given day.
 
Never thought I'd be saying this, but this team really needs Victorino back right now...
 
 
(edit: Never mind, forgot De Aza is a lefty)

 

[MakMan44]

...so the solution is to just keep him in the starting lineup indefinitely, hoping that he'll magically start hitting again?

All Major League hitters reach the end of the line at or before their 40s.  At his age, every slump could well be the end of his career.

My solution is to do exactly what the Sox are currently doing. Sit him against some LHP. Simple as that. He's clearly not broken facing RHP, which is another reason suggesting you bench him for a month is stupid.

 

[threecy]

My solution is to do exactly what the Sox are currently doing. Sit him against some LHP. Simple as that. He's clearly not broken facing RHP, which is another reason suggesting you bench him for a month is stupid.

Do we have splits by month, vs. LHP and vs. RHP?  Because if the Sox are indeed reducing the percentage of his plate appearances vs. LHP, then presumably his overall stats would be improving (which they are not).

 

[donutogre]

Great, and the complaining begins: http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/129838474/david-ortiz-unhappy-about-sitting-against-lefty
 

 
BALTIMORE -- David Ortiz strode into the Red Sox's clubhouse Wednesday and grew agitated when asked about manager John Farrell's decision to keep him out of the starting lineup against Orioles left-hander Wei-Yin Chen.


That reasoning ultimately came down to the Boston slugger's struggles against southpaws, where he is 8-for-70 (.114) with 14 strikeouts in 33 games this season.




Still, Ortiz apparently was not happy and kept his back to the media as he put on his uniform and shook his head before quietly saying, "I'm not playing today. What do you want me to tell you?"

 

[DJnVa]

Yeah, I don't have any problem with a player being upset that he's not in the lineup.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Yeah, I don't have any problem with a player being upset that he's not in the lineup.

 
I don't have any problem with it as long as the player is upset with himself for sucking so much he had to be benched, rather than with the manager for responding appropriately to his suckage by benching him.

 

[vadertime]

At this point you almost have to only start Ortiz 2-3 times a week, regardless of its a lefty or right starter. At the current pace is option is going to vest in late July and there is no way in hell we can have that black hole in our lineup again next year.  Its been a nice ride, but the end is near.

 

[moondog80]

At this point you almost have to only start Ortiz 2-3 times a week, regardless of its a lefty or right starter. At the current pace is option is going to vest in late July and there is no way in hell we can have that black hole in our lineup again next year.  Its been a nice ride, but the end is near.

I think Ortiz would completely understand the situation and take that well.

 

[LogansDad]

At this point you almost have to only start Ortiz 2-3 times a week, regardless of its a lefty or right starter. At the current pace is option is going to vest in late July and there is no way in hell we can have that black hole in our lineup again next year.  Its been a nice ride, but the end is near.

That is not going to happen, and I'd be willing to be the MLBPA would have a fit if it did.
 
That said, if Ortiz wants to complain about being taken out of the lineup against lefties, he would probably be better served spending that time in the cage trying to stop being a shitty hitter.

 

[MuzzyField]

At some point (hopefully not this week) David Ortiz is going to be Craig Breslow with a bat making a shitload more money. There is no indication this end is going to be a happy one, I just hope it's length is not a drawn out cluster fuck.

 

[grimshaw]

I have no issue with his quotes at all.  Sounds like the media trying to annoy him into saying something colorful.  If anything he's been pretty muted about his struggles (for him).  I would have thought he'd have ripped into someone in the media or the fans by now, given his propensity for lashing out about touchy stuff.  I'm sure that will not be the case going forward.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The only problem with Ortiz's decline is that the Sox still need him to bat 3/4 in the order to field a credible lineup. An Ortiz allowed to hit just okay out of the 6/7 hole in pursuit of #500 would not be something to avoid, but something to celebrate. But there need to be at least three other guys credible to hit 25 bombs to push him down that far. As far as I can tell, the Sox have only one such guy. And unfortunately, that guy's best position is also DH.

 

[MakMan44]

Fucking with Ortiz to make sure his option doesn't vest would be the cherry on top of this shit sundae of a season. Why didn't he PH instead of de Aza? Ortiz can't play against lefties, but Sandoval can? Come on; this organization pisses away tens of millions every year but we are suddenly convinced that having Ortiz on next years team would cripple them and need to limit his plate appearances?

If they've concluded that they don't want his contract to vest, than they should do the right thing and move him before it gets ugly (beaus wit will) and they tarnish another relationship with a franchise legend.

This. This right here. 
 
I understand why they're starting to bench him against LHP, even if I don't personally don't think he's completely done hitting them, but he's been pretty productive against RHP and it's absolutely stunning that people are just casually throwing out that the Sox should play PA games to avoid having his option vest. 

 

[The Mort Report]

That is not going to happen, and I'd be willing to be the MLBPA would have a fit if it did.
 
That said, if Ortiz wants to complain about being taken out of the lineup against lefties, he would probably be better served spending that time in the cage trying to stop being a shitty hitter.

 
I can't think of a time the MLBPA ever made a peep about any playing time situations.  Sure they can point to the option vesting, but they didn't make that much noise about Bryant which is a bigger issue.  He is playing at below replacement level, what justification would they have?
 
 

At some point (hopefully not this week) David Ortiz is going to be Craig Breslow with a bat making a shitload more money. There is no indication this end is going to be a happy one, I just hope it's length is not a drawn out cluster fuck.

 
Did anyone actually believe this was going to end well?  Ortiz is the kind of guy that is going to believe to the bitter end that he can turn it around.  For the last 12-13 years that's what made him so good, but what is creating the issues now.  The Man is too proud to admit that, if it really is his skills falling off a cliff, that he is no longer a viable option on a daily basis.  I hate to say it but I have a feeling we will be having the same conversation about Pedroia before his contract is up. 

 

[JohntheBaptist]

 
 
That said, if Ortiz wants to complain about being taken out of the lineup against lefties, he would probably be better served spending that time in the cage trying to stop being a shitty hitter.

This is totally repulsive. Good pep talk, coach, I'm sure it's "more time in the cage" that he needs.
 
I mean you're talking about someone that has given you, as a fan, more great memories in your life than it would be fair to ask of three players. He's now 39 and slowing down and being a competitor about it, and your response is "get back in the cage, whiner, you suck."
 
Shit like this is why it will get ugly. He's probably expecting some respect and dignity as he struggles given what he's given and he'll get platefuls of this braindead crap instead.

 

[Rasputin]

Guys, whether it's now or some time in the future, David Ortiz is going to cease to be an effective hitter. It's going to suck but you can count on one hand the athletes who have done more to earn the right to go out on his terms

If you list the best moments in the last fifteen years of Red Sox history, your going to get a whole lot of David Ortiz and a bunch more that wouldn't be possible without him.

His career post season ops is .962 and his world series ops is 1.372.

You don't fuck around with him. You give him every chance to get himself right and if he can't do it you keep fucking sending him out there until he realizes it.

And no, I don't care if it costs us games. I want to have a star athlete leave this team on good terms. That's more rare than a world series title around here.

 

[mauidano]

It's a fine line we as fans, the Sox and Ortiz walk here. He gets as much opportunity to try and work through it. I don't believe he will pull the team down around him. He understands his place in history. I do hope the choices made as he gets to the end are made with his input and his legacy ends on a strong note.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

And no, I don't care if it costs us games. I want to have a star athlete leave this team on good terms. That's more rare than a world series title around here.

This is especially true since this season looks like a writeoff anyway.  If Ortiz were the only thing keeping this team from winning 95 games, maybe the issue would be different, but since we're not going anywhere, we might as well give him every opportunity to turn things around.

 

[threecy]

You don't fuck around with him. You give him every chance to get himself right and if he can't do it you keep fucking sending him out there until he realizes it.

And no, I don't care if it costs us games. I want to have a star athlete leave this team on good terms. That's more rare than a world series title around here.

So in other words, his legacy is so important that he should be allowed to be marched out there as a subpar player indefinitely (thus tarnishing said legacy)?

Perhaps if the Sox had given Jim Rice every chance he needed to right himself, he too could have turned it around.

 

[Guapos Toenails]

Somebody asked upthread about how he looks in BP...a few years ago when he had that horrific start, his BP was horrific as well.  I shot some video of one of his BPs and he could hardly get the ball to the warning track.  It was really noticeable how bad his BPs were.
 
This year his BPs have been just fine.  Hitting bombs. One slight difference I noticed was for a game or two on the last homestand he changed his spot in the BP order.  He usually hits in the last group, but he moved up a group.
 
Anyway, just some observations, probably doesn't mean anything.

 

[grimshaw]

This is especially true since this season looks like a writeoff anyway.  If Ortiz were the only thing keeping this team from winning 95 games, maybe the issue would be different, but since we're not going anywhere, we might as well give him every opportunity to turn things around.

I had the same general thought that if they were going to be a last place team anyhow, you just run him out there.  He's not really blocking a young phenom.  You could make the argument that he would be costing JBJ another chance at an everyday shot, but he really seems buried for one reason or another.  No one else is forcing the issue in AAA.
 
My problem is that it just isn't that time yet.  It's critical that they win before getting to that point. 
 
The vesting option with a guy like Ortiz seems like a terrible idea in hindsight.

 

[threecy]

Somebody asked upthread about how he looks in BP...a few years ago when he had that horrific start, his BP was horrific as well.  I shot some video of one of his BPs and he could hardly get the ball to the warning track.  It was really noticeable how bad his BPs were.
 
This year his BPs have been just fine.  Hitting bombs. One slight difference I noticed was for a game or two on the last homestand he changed his spot in the BP order.  He usually hits in the last group, but he moved up a group.
 
Anyway, just some observations, probably doesn't mean anything.

Thank you...this suggests time off might not fix anything, if he's looking fine in non-game situations.

 

[lexrageorge]

We will have to accept that there's no solution on the Ortiz situation that will satisfy everyone on this board.  It is quite possible that Ortiz is well into his age-related decline.  I do not need to rehash the evidence that supports that theory.  
 
At the same time, he was quite good last year, even during August and September, and had done well this season against RHP's.  So there is also a nonzero chance that by the end of the season his OPS ends up around the 0.800 mark overall.  And there are really no good alternatives right now.  And those are the reasons why the team is going to give him the opportunity to work out of this slump.  
 
He sat twice in the past 6 games against left handed starters.  Which tells me that Farrell and Co. have made the decision on how they are going to use Ortiz in the next few weeks.  And that decision seems prudent; if he was a guy that struggled to achieve an OPS of 0.700 last season, I could understand the angst.  But that's not the case here.  Removing Ortiz from the lineup entirely fixes nothing at this point; it certainly does not improve the Sox chances of getting back in the division race.  As long as Hanley, Sandoval, Napoli, and the right field black hole all continue to struggle, the team will not win many games.  Ortiz cannot fix any of that. 
 
It may be that nothing improves between now and the end of July.  Then the Sox will have another decision to make.  But we're not there yet.  As for next season, there are too many variables at this point.  But it would be incredibly stupid for the Sox to deliberately reduce Ortiz' at bats solely for avoiding the option to vest.  Things like that get noticed by both the MLBPA and prospective free agents and teammates that are nearing the end of their respective contracts. 
 
Bottom line is that the best option for this team is to wait for Ortiz to recover.  There are no satisfactory alternatives at this point in time.  

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The vesting option with a guy like Ortiz seems like a terrible idea in hindsight.

 
There should at least have been a buyout on it, although I guess you could say the modest size of the AAV on the option years is sort of a built-in buyout.
 
I see Ras's point of view, but I would tend to be a bit more hard-boiled about it. The Sox should send out the lineup that gives them the best chance of winning every day. If that practice puts Papi's vesting option in danger, then he should figure out a way not to suck so much vs. LHP, and if he can't, well, he should look in the mirror and not blame others. I know that's easy to say and unlikely to go smoothly in practice. But I think this goes beyond the question of whether we're in the playoff race or not. The team has an obligation to make a good-faith effort to win every day, because they are charging people a good chunk of money to come to these games, and it's a hell of a lot more fun to come to a baseball game when your team wins. David Ortiz is huge, but even he isn't bigger than that.