Ortiz. toast?
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
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Ortiz needs 203 more PA for the option to vest. That's 68 more games with 3 PA each. Sox have 110 games left. So far they have faced a RH starter 72% of the time, that means 79 more games against righties. So, if he sits every single time a lefty starts (not happening), misses an additional 11 games vs RHP (also not happening unless he gets hurt), and then only gets 3 PA in all of the games he does play (not happening), the option still vests.
Unless he gets hurt -- for more than a 15 day DL stint -- or traded, the option vests and he's on the team next year. I wouldn't mind this so much (he does still mash RHP) but the idea of Hanley DH and JBJ in the OF has some appeal.
Unless he gets hurt -- for more than a 15 day DL stint -- or traded, the option vests and he's on the team next year. I wouldn't mind this so much (he does still mash RHP) but the idea of Hanley DH and JBJ in the OF has some appeal.
If the Red Sox thought the 72 at bats were only a blip, they wouldn't be sitting him or giving him a two day breather.DrewDawg said:
If we have to make a Pats comparison, I see it more like the Wilfork situation. He saw fewer snaps but was still ineffective against the run.
Rudy Pemberton said:
It's not the salary that's the main issue. It's the roster and lineup spot. If he's on the team he's going to play, and if he sucks it'll be at the expense of a better hitter and the team. I wouldn't purposely limit his PAs if he's hitting, but I also wouldn't continue to give him full-time PAs just so his deal vests if he continues to suck.
I wonder if we need a poll. There seem to be a few different camps.
1. Toast. Either keep the option from vesting, or accept having a Jeter-esque yearlong celebration next season at the expense of team performance.
2. Ortiz is still useful against RHP, but he doesn't have the bat speed to hit LHP anymore.
3. The Patriot Way version of #2 - keep the option from vesting so Ramirez can get out of the outfield next year.
4. Small sample size. Dude can still mash.
1. Toast. Either keep the option from vesting, or accept having a Jeter-esque yearlong celebration next season at the expense of team performance.
2. Ortiz is still useful against RHP, but he doesn't have the bat speed to hit LHP anymore.
3. The Patriot Way version of #2 - keep the option from vesting so Ramirez can get out of the outfield next year.
4. Small sample size. Dude can still mash.
glennhoffmania said:
If the roster and lineup spot is the problem, then the problem is that Pablo Sandoval is aging in dog years and Hanley Ramirez isn't adjusting to LF. Move one of them, or better yet but too late, don't blow the money on both of them when you only needed one in the first place.
And you'd have to twist a lot of stats to convince me that Pablo Sandoval is a better hitter than Ortiz, I don't think it is at all a foregone conclusion that Ortiz's lineup spot otherwise be going to a better hitter. If we're leaving contracts and reputation out of the discussion, then Pablo's the one on the bench, with Ortiz DH and Ramirez at 3B.
Rudy has it right, the whole time SOSH has been preaching about how forward thinking this organization is about payroll flexibility and WAR per dollar, they have wasted tens of millions of dollars a year on short-term supposedly less risky contracts to crappy players like Breslow, Ogando, Mujica and Masterson, while letting superstars walk over a difference of $2 million a year in AAV. They preach about the dangers of big-money, long-term contracts, then give an obese, platoon corner infielder $100 million. How many last place finishes this decade are going to be enough before the scales drop from the eyes and the teflon around the Theo-less front office melts away.
Plympton91 said:
Did you notice all of the ifs in my post? If Ortiz is hitting well, or better than the alternatives, then there's no problem. A problem arises if Ortiz is in fact toast but he's on the roster for another year and a half.
Plympton91 said:
Cherry picking. What team hits on 100% of short term deals? Koji Uehara worked out OK. Cody Ross. Mike Carp. Napoli. Gomes. Drew. Victorino gave them one great year that helped them win a WS. Go back a little further, Adrian Beltre.
And that superstar they let walk for a difference of $2 mil in AAV (as though they should simply always bid up and never have a walk away point), he has an ERA+ of 92 right now, is already 31, and is signed for 5 years beyond this one. His WAR is lower than Miley's.
glennhoffmania said:
But why would you think that Ortiz is toast when he has a perfectly normal OPS against right handed pitching? If for some reason he's suddenly lost all ability to hit LHers, the worst case scenario is that he's a platoon DH. The worst case scenario with Sandoval is that he eats his way out of the league before year 3 of his current contract.
vs Left
BOS
-
70
1
8
3
0
0
4
0
0
14
0
0
.114
.111
.157
.268
vs Right
BOS
-
126
15
35
9
0
6
17
23
6
21
0
0
.278
.387
.492
.879
Ortiz to date has been better than any alternative against RHPs. Against Lefties, he has been a black hole.
The RS as of this week are doing what makes sense, ie, sitting him against LH pitchers and using HRam as DH. I think this is their best option until (and if) Ortiz gets hot against RHPs, where they can start trying him against LHPs.
I just hope the RS can stay that course and not cave to a proud player who doesn't want sit when faced by pitchers against whom he is he is struggling.
BOS
-
70
1
8
3
0
0
4
0
0
14
0
0
.114
.111
.157
.268
vs Right
BOS
-
126
15
35
9
0
6
17
23
6
21
0
0
.278
.387
.492
.879
Ortiz to date has been better than any alternative against RHPs. Against Lefties, he has been a black hole.
The RS as of this week are doing what makes sense, ie, sitting him against LH pitchers and using HRam as DH. I think this is their best option until (and if) Ortiz gets hot against RHPs, where they can start trying him against LHPs.
I just hope the RS can stay that course and not cave to a proud player who doesn't want sit when faced by pitchers against whom he is he is struggling.
Plympton91 said:
I'm not saying he is but that's what this thread is about and I was simply commenting on Rudy's post about whether the salary was the main issue. My only point was that I doubt Ben is losing sleep over Ortiz' salary. It's the roster construction that becomes a problem IF it turns out that Ortiz is toast. If he's fine then no one will care about his salary or his spot in the lineup.
He seems fine against righties. But as I said yesterday, he looks lost against lefties and seems totally overmatched. Presumably, or hopefully, this is something that can be fixed.
moondog80 said:
What's referencing a partial season ERA without checking BABip and HR/FB rates? Alex.
Lester's BABip is .347, he's only been supported with 2 DPs, and his HR to FB is up a tick from career norms. His xFIP is 3.21 vs. 3.10 last year.
I wasn't really talking about any specific player, nor really limiting my focus to just re-signing their own free agents, though my wording certainly wasn't clear on that latter part.
Plympton91 said:
Fair point about Lester so far this year, but it's not really fair to complain about the philosophy behind Mujica and Breslow while ignoring Koji, Ross, and Napoli. This is a hard game, nobody guesses right all the time.
The Mort Report said:
You can't think of a time because clubs don't pick fights they are sure to lose. Sitting Ortiz against lefties because he isn't hitting them is a defensible case to make to an arbitrator. Sitting him against everyone because the club doesn't want to let an option vest is not going to fly.
threecy said:
And your point is? David Ortiz, in the RedSox pantheon is arguably one of three or four most important players to have ever played for them (Williams, Yaz, Speaker ? ). I'm not arguing that Ortiz has been a better player than Evans or Rice but he certainly has been more important. When you play a lead role in bringing three Championships in 10 years to a franchise like the RedSox - and all it's tortured history - you deserve to go out on your own terms.
And I thought they screwed over Evans and Rice as well. Which is why it would be really, really nice if just for once they do the right thing.
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
His terms no matter what? What if next year he completely falls apart, against righties too, should they keep playing him until he reaches his option for 2017? Because if they bench him in that situation, he's going to be upset. Ortiz has been awesome and will always be a legend in town, and yes, he's bought himself a little bit of deference at the margins, but for the most part their obligation to respect Ortiz (a guy they've paid $143 million) is trumped by their obligation to win games.
Jim Rice's OPS+ for his last four seasons: 137, 101, 101, 70. How exactly did they screw him over?BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Dwight Evans has since said he regretted leaving Boston for the one season in Baltimore. But with an OPS+ of 104 in his age 38 season with the Red Sox, could you really blame them for letting him go?
On the other hand, you could say they made a bad move by replacing Evans with another slugger about to fall off the cliff, Jack Clark (who had a good age 35 season for them, then was a $2.9 million piece of toast).
...then replacing him a few years later with a HOF slugger at the end of his rope (Andre Dawson).
There is no doubt in my mind that whether Ortiz is benched, released, is traded, retired etc. it will be a few week blip of fans and media losing their mind about how he should have been treated.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
And then, like a year later he'll be in spring training teaching youngsters. This ownership has been "doing the right thing," with retired players since they got here, that did not remotely exist in the Harrington era. Evans and Rice have absolutely nothing to do with them.
I don't understand the perception that things always end poorly in Boston because almost without exception they all come back to the park.
Why can't they buy out his 2017 option behind closed doors if he's hitting that poorly? All people are here are suggesting is that Ortiz has earned the right to have anything like that happen behind closed doors, instead of publicly. David is a big boy, I think if they're honest and respect him when they talk about him retiring, he'd understand why they want to give him the money and have him retire instead of having a big ugly situation in 2017. If it doesn't play out like that, fine but disrespecting publicly (including benching him to avoid the 2017) is a mistake for a guy who's meant so much to franchise over the last decade.moondog80 said:
Grim is nuts. If Papi is treated poorly aka, benched, released or traded, I can't imagine it NOT being a big story for the entire season.
The problem, of course, is that the Sox can't platoon both Sandoval and Ortiz until Victorino returns, while at the same time keeping Brock Holt in the lineup every day.
When Shane's back then Ortiz and Sandoval can hit against RHSP, with Napoli and Victorino getting the call against LHSP.
And both platoons together only cost the Sox $62M! WIN-WIN!
When Shane's back then Ortiz and Sandoval can hit against RHSP, with Napoli and Victorino getting the call against LHSP.
And both platoons together only cost the Sox $62M! WIN-WIN!
MakMan44 said:
I'm not saying they should bench him next year just to avoid the option. I'm saying they should bench him next year if he's hurting the team's chances at winning games (if indeed he is playing poorly against RHP). If on May 30 next year, he's Allen Craig bad, what do you do?
Schnerres said:
This is a really good question. Ortiz has always said that he won't announce in advance that he's retiring, and that he doesn't want a Jeter-like goodbye tour. If he's not having fun this year, and if he doesn't think that the Sox will contend next year anyway...
Schnerres said:
Didn't Gammons drop a "David Ortiz is retiring after this year" on some TV appearance this offseason?
Now that IS interesting. I know he was complaining about the new step our restrictions before the season started. Perhaps he was intuitively aware of this effect.Laser Show said:
If it is real then I would suggest he ignore the restrictions and step out all he wants. I'm sure the club would be happy to chip in for the fines.
When Victorino is back? What would give us any assurance that Victorino and his hammie's would be active for more than two or so weeks before heading back to the DL? Its time to move on with multiple personalities on this current team.Buzzkill Pauley said:
Somebody posted this in the game thread. I didn't realize his numbers were this bad against lefties. Coming into tonight (and he went 0-1 with a K against Cecil):
.930 OPS vs .277 OPS
Doesn't Hanley have to start DHing against right handers the rest of the way? Pinch hitting for Ortiz won't be easy because they don't really have right handed bat off the bench like they did with Lowell years ago unless Napoli gets benched in place of Holt when Pedroia comes back. Maybe Victorino takes at bats if he comes up in the 2nd half? But Vic might be starting those games if he's healthy. Can you PH Ortiz with Rusney? Whatever they decide, they can't let him keep hitting against lefties.
I know he's a proud guy and will probably sulk, but those numbers are frightening.
.930 OPS vs .277 OPS
Doesn't Hanley have to start DHing against right handers the rest of the way? Pinch hitting for Ortiz won't be easy because they don't really have right handed bat off the bench like they did with Lowell years ago unless Napoli gets benched in place of Holt when Pedroia comes back. Maybe Victorino takes at bats if he comes up in the 2nd half? But Vic might be starting those games if he's healthy. Can you PH Ortiz with Rusney? Whatever they decide, they can't let him keep hitting against lefties.
I know he's a proud guy and will probably sulk, but those numbers are frightening.
Forgive me for replying to a comment from I don't even know how long ago, but the fact that Rice and Evans and everybody else didn't go out on their terms is why I want Papi to do it.threecy said:
I mean, fuck, Pedro Martinez didn't get to go out on his terms.
I want to see one of the people who has brought me so much joy over the last decade plus have a seamless transition to retirement without all the bullshit.
Rice and Evans were toast when the Red Sox let them go, and at least in the case of the latter, he later admitted he should have called it a career when that day came.Rasputin said:
There's this naive notion that they'll go out with a bang at an old age, but not everyone is Ted Williams. Reality is that most players will be getting worse with every passing year at that age. It's not much of a victory lap when you're hurting the team with below-replacement performance.
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