Pitching Targets
- Thread starter nvalvo
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I wouldn't mind checking on the price of Doug Fister. I know his peripherals aren't great and he is outperforming his FIP this year, but he looks like he's healthy again and I can't imagine HOU would ask much since there's no way they would make a QO.
I agree, the reason we have such a good offense is because they did not trade the Bogarts and Betts etc.. If they want to keep them past there arb years, its going to cost big bucks. By saving the new young studs, Moncada et al, that will help by having cheap young players. Rather look for bargains or roll with with what they have and tell Wake and Pedro to get in shape (only kidding).
Agreed. And Kopech as a sweetener too? No thanks.
But I do think the Sox could explore a deal for Teheran as long as it's not insane. They have no catchers at all. We have a good young one playing LF (Swihart). They have an expensive LF that isn't too good anymore in Markakis. Still has two more years at $11m a year on his deal. I'm sure they'd rather not be paying that. But he'd be an adequate platoon fit for Boston with Young. I know others have commented on this.
Is it possible for the Sox to acquire Teheran without giving up any of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Moncada, Benintendi, Espinoza, or Rodriguez? If they took all of Markakis' contract on (which gives Atlanta some helpful payroll relief), and offered Atlanta Swihart, and some combination of three of: Devers/Chavis/Owens/Johnson/Kopech/Kelly (so, say, Teheran/Markakis for Swihart/Devers/Kopech/Kelly)? Would that remotely be possible? Or would Teheran, regardless of what else they got back, automatically require one of the guys I mentioned at the top of this paragraph?
When I hear that the Padres might be able to move James Shields for actual prospects rather than salary relief, I tend to suspect that the Braves are going to demand talent and salary relief for Teheran. It may be best just to sit out this Venezuelan steak market.
Yeah, if you're suggesting a trade for Tehrean don't you have to start with what they gave up for Kimbrell and add to that, either in per prospect value or number of prospects?
It'd think Benintendi, Kopech starts the bidding, then you have to add a Logan Allen (Trey Ball?) and a Carlos Asuage (Hernandez?)
You can pay with Money or you can pay with prospects.
It'd think Benintendi, Kopech starts the bidding, then you have to add a Logan Allen (Trey Ball?) and a Carlos Asuage (Hernandez?)
You can pay with Money or you can pay with prospects.
In my proposal, I offer Swihart, Devers, Kopech, and someone else (Kelly, if they think they can turn him around). I don't know if Swihart is still considered a prospect, but he, Devers, and Kopech make a pretty nice package, especially given the absolute dearth of talent Atlanta has at C.
I agree, Swihart at catcher would be very attractive to Atlanta with the corpse of AJP as their starting catcher. I would offer Swihart, Devers +. No way am I moving Moncada, Benintendi or Espinoza.
I have no idea if the Red Sox would do that, or if the Braves would take it. But if Atlanta is looking to fill needs, and wants top-shelf prospects back, Swihart and Devers certainly qualify.
Padres do appear to be our best fit but I'd be looking at Tyson Ross, not Shields. SD are not going to contend for a couple years and Ross will be a FA in 2018 after a relatively expensive (for SD) final year of arbitration next season.
He just started long tossing and is probably at least 6 weeks away but could be the perfect deadline acquisition assuming he is healthy.
A package built around Devers should be as competitive as anyone else will make for 1+1/2 seasons of Ross coming off injury.
He just started long tossing and is probably at least 6 weeks away but could be the perfect deadline acquisition assuming he is healthy.
A package built around Devers should be as competitive as anyone else will make for 1+1/2 seasons of Ross coming off injury.
Just so i can get on the same page as everyone else, are these minor league projections correct?
Benintendi is blocked unless he plays LF or the Red Sox trade Jackie in the off season
Devers has 2 more years before an opening is identified (replacing Shaw, for example)
Moncada is blocked at 2B so they need to find a position for him, either 3B, LF or 1B
I'm trying to assess the value of these touted prospects assuming the Red Sox don't trade JBJ, Betts or Bogaerts...possibly trade Shaw...and relegate Sandoval to long relief.
Who are the most trade-able and in what order?
- Devers: 3B (but possibly outfield) 19 years old and projected to the majors in 2018
- Moncada: 2B (but possibly anywhere) 21 years old and projected to the majors in 2017. Really untouchable, right?
- Benintendi: CF (but possible RF or LF) 21 years old and projected to the majors in 2017
- Marrero: SS (but possible 2B or 3B) 25 years old and projected to majors this year
- 3B/1B: Shaw (26 years old) ARB eligible in 2019, FA 2022
- 2B: Pedroia (32 years old) FA 2022
- CF: JBJ (26 years old) ARB 2017, FA 2021
- RF: Betts (23 years old) ARB 2018, FA 2021
- SS: Bogaerts (23 years old) ARB 2017, FA 2022
Benintendi is blocked unless he plays LF or the Red Sox trade Jackie in the off season
Devers has 2 more years before an opening is identified (replacing Shaw, for example)
Moncada is blocked at 2B so they need to find a position for him, either 3B, LF or 1B
I'm trying to assess the value of these touted prospects assuming the Red Sox don't trade JBJ, Betts or Bogaerts...possibly trade Shaw...and relegate Sandoval to long relief.
Who are the most trade-able and in what order?
Deven Marrero has an OPS of .479 in AAA he doesn't belong on anyone's list of touted prospects at this point, he may never stick in the majors and would only be included in any deal as a third or fourth piece.
Value wise it is likely:
Moncada
Beinetendi
Devers
Marrero
Value wise it is likely:
Moncada
Beinetendi
Devers
Marrero
This should probably be a different thread, but it seems like we would need to know a lot about Dombrowski's and Hazen's thinking about the Ortiz succession plan at DH/cleanup hitter to have a sense of what we're trying to achieve at the deadline. It doesn't make a ton of sense to hamstring the 2017-20 rosters when our window should still be emphatically open to improve the fourth slot in the rotation.
You could potentially put a solid 2017 roster together by essentially shuffling around what we already have on the books [removed further discussion in deference to Geoduck's excellent post.]
Or, you could drop nine figures on your preferred Torontonian slugger, or Yoenis Cespedes. Cheaper/shorter term options could include Michaels Morse, Saunders or Napoli.
On the farm, Devers and more recently Ockimey and Travis are the power prospects in the system. Devers is scuffling in early going, but he seems to be a BABIP victim and he's still insanely young for his level. Ockimey and especially Travis are closer, but because of injuries either last year or this, we don't have a great sense yet of their potential. My view would be that it's reasonable to think we'd get a middle of the order bat out of at least one of those guys. Devers has the highest ceiling; Travis the highest floor, assuming his knee heals up. With a 9 HR, .300/.450/.550 performance in 200 PA as a 20 year old in Greenville, Ockimey has become interesting. 42 BB to 49 K.
I don't think I want to give Jose Bautista a Chris Davis deal, but if we were going to, maybe sending some of that power potential in a deal for a good pitcher makes sense.
You could potentially put a solid 2017 roster together by essentially shuffling around what we already have on the books [removed further discussion in deference to Geoduck's excellent post.]
Or, you could drop nine figures on your preferred Torontonian slugger, or Yoenis Cespedes. Cheaper/shorter term options could include Michaels Morse, Saunders or Napoli.
On the farm, Devers and more recently Ockimey and Travis are the power prospects in the system. Devers is scuffling in early going, but he seems to be a BABIP victim and he's still insanely young for his level. Ockimey and especially Travis are closer, but because of injuries either last year or this, we don't have a great sense yet of their potential. My view would be that it's reasonable to think we'd get a middle of the order bat out of at least one of those guys. Devers has the highest ceiling; Travis the highest floor, assuming his knee heals up. With a 9 HR, .300/.450/.550 performance in 200 PA as a 20 year old in Greenville, Ockimey has become interesting. 42 BB to 49 K.
I don't think I want to give Jose Bautista a Chris Davis deal, but if we were going to, maybe sending some of that power potential in a deal for a good pitcher makes sense.
He never belonged on anyone's list of touted prospects. Except prospect humpers. The guys ceiling was Adam Everett but a lot of people put way too much value in even that. It was fun when people here were citing him as a major piece to get Cole Hamels.
Rich Hill has been scratched from his start tomorrow due to a groin injury.
Hopefully he bounces back quickly, but given his lengthy injury history and lack of IP over his career, this has to be a red flag. Eyeballing his BRef page, I don't think he's thrown more than 100 innings in a season since 2010, and hasn't thrown over 110 innings or so since 2007. He's at 64 this year.
Hopefully he bounces back quickly, but given his lengthy injury history and lack of IP over his career, this has to be a red flag. Eyeballing his BRef page, I don't think he's thrown more than 100 innings in a season since 2010, and hasn't thrown over 110 innings or so since 2007. He's at 64 this year.
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Honestly, why would you sign someone to DH at all? Ramirez has proven to be a solid 1B, which makes things infinitely easier for Boston. Assuming that Swihart is traded for pitching help this winter, you have Benintendi taking over an OF spot and Moncada pressing for time at 3B (as that would seem to be his landing spot with Pedroia here). At that point you have Travis Shaw as a LF/3B/1B/DH, Brock Holt supersub, and an opening to give players days off all year long. No need to be spending the big bucks on DH.
Alternatively if it's Shaw that's the centerpiece of a pitching trade, then Swihart assumes the role of LF/1B/backup catcher/DH, Holt's still your supersub, and there's still no need to pay big money for a DH.
Why would you assume any of that? Benintendi is hitting 214/250/268 in his 60 PAs in AA. Moncada is in A ball and has never played third base professionally in his life.
I totally agree that we don't need to be trying to sign a full time DH. But we also don't need to be planning on A ball players being in the Red Sox lineup next year. When those guys are ready, they will earn playing time, like Shaw and Bradley have this year. There's no need to save places for them until they force their way onto the team.
There is a lot of time to worry about next year's team. The Red Sox need to try to fix their pitching situation this year first and foremost. They shouldn't do anything that would hurt in the long run to do it, but that should be the primary focus right now.
Unless we fall off a cliff in the next few weeks with starters 1-4, I don't want another at all. We have all our guys through next year at least; if Kelly or Buchholz really can't get it together then look for a cheap 5 at the deadline or best reasonable FA in the off season.
If you're going to trade real pieces for pitching, I want real relief aces coming back. Not cutesy Cherington flops, real proven AL-tested killers with years of control. Taz and Ue are gone after this year, Smith is out till late next season. Get me Miller, Betances, Colome, guys like that.
If you're going to trade real pieces for pitching, I want real relief aces coming back. Not cutesy Cherington flops, real proven AL-tested killers with years of control. Taz and Ue are gone after this year, Smith is out till late next season. Get me Miller, Betances, Colome, guys like that.
How would we assess Travis Shaw's trade value? Would it be worth a downgrade at 3B to upgrade in the rotation? Does he even have that kind of value?
That's nice, but half of year of Miller cost Eduardo Rodriguez. What do you think the guys you mention are going to cost?
Probably something painful, though that was well noted at the time as a terrible trade for the Orioles; I don't think it necessarily indicates the going rate.
Still, less painful than a starter and, given the way our bullpen seems prone to giving up games lately, possibly more useful.
Garrett Richards would be my target, but probably not happening till close to the trade deadline. The Angels are bad - if they stay bad they will throw the towel on this season. Richards is good, young and cost-controlled through 2018. Has consistently had a FIP < 4. Two of Benintendi, Moncada, and Swihart should get it done. Angels use a catcher platoon system to keep both fresh; half of the platoon is a nice prospect Jett Bandy - the other half is awful (Carlos Perez).
My only untouchable is Espinoza. Swihart has more value to someone else as a catcher than to us as a LFer (Brock can play LF when he comes back). Benintendi & Moncada will be knocking on the door around the end of next year if they do well & will be blocked by good in-their-prime position players everywhere. This organization is pretty nicely stocked for years to come with position players and relievers; it really needs to allocate resources to starting pitchers.
My only untouchable is Espinoza. Swihart has more value to someone else as a catcher than to us as a LFer (Brock can play LF when he comes back). Benintendi & Moncada will be knocking on the door around the end of next year if they do well & will be blocked by good in-their-prime position players everywhere. This organization is pretty nicely stocked for years to come with position players and relievers; it really needs to allocate resources to starting pitchers.
Except that Richards tore his UCL and his currently trying to rehab to see if he can pitch at all this year.
Which might make him a better target for us, in a different sense. Get him cheap due to the injury, extend him through 2021 for something like 6/60 guaranteed money and send him directly to Dr. Andrews. Then he's back in 2018 at age 30, after Clay's last option year and just before Porcello hits FA and Price has his opt out. Even if he's regressed to back end starter by that point he still holds value.
Let me get this straight. You want to trade Swihart and one of Moncada/Benintendi for the opportunity to offer a guy 60 million who may not pitch again until 2018? Who may be a complete question mark after elbow surgery? Who may, in your words, even regress to back end starter? In a discussion about immediate pitching help for this season? I am all for thinking outside the box for potential improvement to the team, but this is stupidity.
The cost you mentioned was from a different poster, the poster you quoted said his injury could allow us to get him cheap. I don't know what cheap means in his mind but I doubt it means Swihart and one of Moncada/Benitendi.
I'm not advocating the trade but you are arguing against something that wasn't said.
I'm not advocating the trade but you are arguing against something that wasn't said.
You're right and my apologies. I combined two separate thoughts on Richards.
I like Richards as a (healthy) pitcher, but I'm sure the Angels aren't too motivated to sell him for pennies on the dollar when they control him for a few more years. Regardless, time to move on to more reasonable discussion regarding more immediate help.
I like Richards as a (healthy) pitcher, but I'm sure the Angels aren't too motivated to sell him for pennies on the dollar when they control him for a few more years. Regardless, time to move on to more reasonable discussion regarding more immediate help.
No matter who posted what, trading two of Swihart/Moncada/Benintendi for Richards is completely insane, for the reasons Green Monster listed (and more).
How about Daniel Hudson from the Dbacks? Free agent at the end of the season, having a strong season out of the bullpen, particularly against righties. Doesn't fix the rotation, but gives them a Carson Smith replacement for late in games. Koji and Tazawa could use some help.
He's making $2.7M this year and has shown to be a quality reliever after failing as a starter. 3:1 K:BB rate the past two seasons. Gave up 7 HR in 67 IP last year, but none so far this year. Throws a 96 mph fastball complimented by a 87 mph slider and an average-at-best sinker. Righties are 3 for 39 with 2 extra base hits off of him so far in '16- both doubles. Seems to me he's getting better with more experience out of the pen.
He's not an elite arm, so the price shouldn't be too bad for the free agent to be. I'm thinking something like Chavis and a lotto arm. Brad Ziegler is another RHP option from the DBacks, but his peripheral numbers aren't as promising.
He's making $2.7M this year and has shown to be a quality reliever after failing as a starter. 3:1 K:BB rate the past two seasons. Gave up 7 HR in 67 IP last year, but none so far this year. Throws a 96 mph fastball complimented by a 87 mph slider and an average-at-best sinker. Righties are 3 for 39 with 2 extra base hits off of him so far in '16- both doubles. Seems to me he's getting better with more experience out of the pen.
He's not an elite arm, so the price shouldn't be too bad for the free agent to be. I'm thinking something like Chavis and a lotto arm. Brad Ziegler is another RHP option from the DBacks, but his peripheral numbers aren't as promising.
While Teheran has been pitching great of late, considering the potential compensation, his home/road splits would bother me. Especially when you consider he'd be moving to Fenway and competing in the AL east.
For those unaware, Teheran is more than a full run worse on the road. 2.87 to 3.94 for his career.
Slash lines (avg/obp/slg) are Home : 220/281/357 Away : 252/318/419
Sample size of 367.1 innings at home and 340 innings away.
Edit* As recent as last year the era split was 2.89 to 5.40 in favor of home. So the difference isn't attributable to a bad year or two at the start of his career, it's been pretty pronounced throughout.
Over the course of his career he's been a great pitcher at Turner Field, but closer to average everywhere else.
It could be that I'm over-valuing these numbers and they do not (or will not) correlate significantly to future performance, but I did think it was at least worth mentioning, because it at least gave me pause for concern, as you wouldn't want to be giving up the caliber of prospects being mentioned for a guy who's going to be average.
For those unaware, Teheran is more than a full run worse on the road. 2.87 to 3.94 for his career.
Slash lines (avg/obp/slg) are Home : 220/281/357 Away : 252/318/419
Sample size of 367.1 innings at home and 340 innings away.
Edit* As recent as last year the era split was 2.89 to 5.40 in favor of home. So the difference isn't attributable to a bad year or two at the start of his career, it's been pretty pronounced throughout.
Over the course of his career he's been a great pitcher at Turner Field, but closer to average everywhere else.
It could be that I'm over-valuing these numbers and they do not (or will not) correlate significantly to future performance, but I did think it was at least worth mentioning, because it at least gave me pause for concern, as you wouldn't want to be giving up the caliber of prospects being mentioned for a guy who's going to be average.
Yeah, definitely didn't mean one of the big name prospects. The fact is Richards is Arb 1 now, so if he goes down for TJ he's burning money and only controlled through 2018 anyway. Meanwhile, LA is down to something like 3 starters, so maybe they're desperate enough to take people like Owens or Kelly.
Pick the best of Buchholz, Kelly, Owens or Elias over the next 2 weeks to make the June 18th start. If they give a QS then they get the next start, if not move on to the next guy. Wait till the trading deadline to see whats available. The spread between those "hopefully motivated" 4 and James Shields/Ross/Teheran/etc +cash is not worth offering Swihart+ prospects
DL Koji, give him a 2 week break, and bring up Hembree
DL Koji, give him a 2 week break, and bring up Hembree
I think this is all sound advice. Is there some sort of split finger guru we can send Koji and Taz to see? Those flat splitters they've been throwing have been killing us.
I'm not at all ready to assume we're making the playoffs, because the Orioles and especially the Blue Jays seem like very legitimate contenders, and even the Yankees and Rays are probably better than their records indicate. But Fangraphs suggests we're 63.7% to win the division, and 22.4% to take a wild card; both numbers seem high to me, but let's go with them for a moment.
I read on twitter last week (I can't find it at the moment) that Farrell was considering giving Wright two starts per turn through the rotation. I'm not sure whether that means something Price, Porcello, Wright, Rodriguez, Buchholz, Wright again, or if it means going with a four man rotation.
I'm also not sure it's a great idea, but how many times do you think Price and Wright could pitch in a playoff series?
The DS format is currently five games in seven: G1-G2-OFF-G3-G4-OFF-G5. The CS format is seven in nine: G1-G2-OFF-G3-G4-G5-OFF-G6-G7.
It seems like this would have a bearing on how we should expend resources at the trade deadline.
I read on twitter last week (I can't find it at the moment) that Farrell was considering giving Wright two starts per turn through the rotation. I'm not sure whether that means something Price, Porcello, Wright, Rodriguez, Buchholz, Wright again, or if it means going with a four man rotation.
I'm also not sure it's a great idea, but how many times do you think Price and Wright could pitch in a playoff series?
The DS format is currently five games in seven: G1-G2-OFF-G3-G4-OFF-G5. The CS format is seven in nine: G1-G2-OFF-G3-G4-G5-OFF-G6-G7.
It seems like this would have a bearing on how we should expend resources at the trade deadline.
More worrisome to me than home/road splits is the fact that Teheran's good 3-1/2 year run has coincided with the NL East's overall offensive futility.
Not one NL East team has hit for a team OPS+ over 100 since Washington's 102 in 2012. Teheran started pitching full seasons with ATL in 2013. Still, he was one of Frank Wren's top prospects with the Braves, and is probably the best pitcher known to be available.
So I expect DDski's going to pay whatever price in prospects it will take to get him. I'm just keeping fingers crossed that Espinoza, Kopech, and Ockimey all stay in the system.
Well, that's where they are starting. Nobody is going to give them that. There are only a few teams other than us who could give them that, and none of them will.
Look at what the Padres got for Shields. Not much. Market is perfectly reasonable. Teheran might get one prospect in the Moncada / Benintendi level but not two.
Shields are Teheran are not in the same market. Shields was in the salary dump aisle; Teheran, by being perhaps the best starter available, will be subject to competing bids
Nolasco could be had for not much more than a salary dump. If the twins could save themselves 20 million dollars and get a lottery ticket, I think they would be more than happy. However, Nolasco kinda sucks, and is not much, if any, of an upgrade for the Sox.
Just wondering what Buchholz would cost us if he were on another team. Right now I`d rather try and fix Buchholz than spend for someone else who will have as many warts as Buchholz has. Give him a little more time in the pen and see what happens. I`m a prospect humper so I don`t want to see any of the top prospects leave for anyone mentioned in this thread, well maybe for Jose Fernandez. Patience my friends.
The Astros are 10-2 in their last 12 and creeping back into the race, Fister isn't going anywhere.
I think this is a guy that you need to take a good look at. After two TJ surgeries and as an impending FA he may be a cheaper, under-the-radar get.
Another guy I'd look at is Will Smith from the Brewers. 11.79 and 12.93 K/9 over the last two seasons for the Brewers. Throws from the left but he's not just a lefty specialist. He was a potential saves candidate going into the year, but he went down with and LCL injury in his right knee which he's just recently returned from. He's back in the mix for save opportunities according to Craig Counsell- probably a bid to up his trade value. He's arb eligible after this year and a FA in 2020. Very likely to get moved.
May/June results so far for two guys that seem to offer real enough upgrades to the 4/5 spots at sub-premium* pricing:
Drew Pomeranz (SD)
27 years old.
1.35MM this year, Arb Eligibile 2017, 2018
7 Starts
43 IP (6.14 Innings/Start)
1.88 ERA
3.98 BB/9
9.63 K/9
0.91 WHIP
Jeremy Hellickson (PHI)
29 years old.
7.00MM this year, Free Agent 2017
7 Starts
42 2/3 IP (6.10 Innings/Start)
3.80 ERA
2.32 BB/9
7.38 K/9
1.22 WHIP
[I tried to resist the urge to further cherrypick, but if you go last 6 starts instead of last seven, the ERA drops to 2.89 and the WHIP to 0.80]
* -- No Betts/Bogaerts/Bradley/Benintendi/Moncada/Espinoza. But possibly some combination of Swihart/Devers/Owens/Kopech/Stank/Joe Kelly etc. and/or salary munching.
EDIT: More of a words guy than a numbers guy...
Drew Pomeranz (SD)
27 years old.
1.35MM this year, Arb Eligibile 2017, 2018
7 Starts
43 IP (6.14 Innings/Start)
1.88 ERA
3.98 BB/9
9.63 K/9
0.91 WHIP
Jeremy Hellickson (PHI)
29 years old.
7.00MM this year, Free Agent 2017
7 Starts
42 2/3 IP (6.10 Innings/Start)
3.80 ERA
2.32 BB/9
7.38 K/9
1.22 WHIP
[I tried to resist the urge to further cherrypick, but if you go last 6 starts instead of last seven, the ERA drops to 2.89 and the WHIP to 0.80]
* -- No Betts/Bogaerts/Bradley/Benintendi/Moncada/Espinoza. But possibly some combination of Swihart/Devers/Owens/Kopech/Stank/Joe Kelly etc. and/or salary munching.
EDIT: More of a words guy than a numbers guy...
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