He didn't fail as a starter, his arm was just not up to it. He seems to be succeeding as a reliever, but he'd have to come cheaper than normal just because of the immense injury risk.
Pitching Targets
- Thread starter nvalvo
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A lefty who can get some K's would be nice. Is he available though? He still has 3 years of arbitration left, so the Sox are probably going to have to pay up.
You're right, he didn't fail. He was actually pretty good as a starter before arm troubles set him back. He had a rough outing yesterday vs the Cubs, giving up his first HR of the year to Rizzo, but I still think he'd be a good add. The price shouldn't be prohibitive. I suggested Chavis, but a Basabe or Light may be of interest to the DBacks as a potential return. He's having a good year, so you have to give up something solid, but the injury history and impending free agent status should keep the price reasonable. He's not an elite guy, so I wouldn't offer up anything close to an EdRod for Miller equivalent (like Owens or Kopech).
San Francisco, with injuries to Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence, is now short on OF/OF depth. What if we were to offer/dangle Rusney Castillo+? The Sox could target ML ready pitchers (4/5 SP) Chris Heston and Albert Suarez and/or prospects such as Tyler Beede, Clayton Blackburn and/or Andrew Suarez.
I understand that Swihart just went on the DL, but this could be a small move that could allow a bigger move/options for Buchholz and Kelly, depending on the return. Castillo may not be an obvious target, nor a sexy, proven name, but I don't see the Giants wanting to overpay (money or prospect-wise) for a Ryan Braun or Jay Bruce.
I understand that Swihart just went on the DL, but this could be a small move that could allow a bigger move/options for Buchholz and Kelly, depending on the return. Castillo may not be an obvious target, nor a sexy, proven name, but I don't see the Giants wanting to overpay (money or prospect-wise) for a Ryan Braun or Jay Bruce.
With the dreck they're trotting out in Peavy and Cain at the back end, I can't imagine SF moving many viable arms in order to acquire Rusney Castillo.
I'm lifting these two posts from the MLB Trade Rumors thread. More appropriate here and I'm hoping to broaden the discussion a bit from the idea that the Sox need someone to slot into that 5th spot of the rotation. I don't have an answer as to who, but I think the approach needs to be different from what many here are looking at.
Quality Starts are always mocked here, and it's no way to measure who the best pitchers are. But it does tell you who has produced frequently decent results so far. The Sox rotation overall hasn't done badly, but it's all been the top 3 spots: Wright has thrown 9 QS in 11 starts, Price 8 times in 12 starts (including 5 straight) and Porcello 6 in 11-- 23 "quality starts" for those guys in 34 chances. The other 2 spots in the rotation have done it 6 times all year in 23 tries. Buchholz was 3 for 10 in that department. Kelly was 1 for 6. Eduardo is 1 for 2 so far.
There is a big difference in the stress on your bullpen between a starter consistently going 5 innings vs. 6 innings, and when you have a good offense a guy who only allows 3 or 4 runs and hands it off in the 7th gives you a great chance to win. Johnny Qualitystart would be the ideal addition to this rotation, but it's going to be hard to find a guy who can do that.
Here are how some possibly available pitchers (and a couple others just for the hell of it) have done so far:
Bart Colon: 6/12
Doug Fister: 8/11
Shields: 8/11
Rich Hill: 8/11
Jimmy Nelson: 8/12
Jeff Locke: 7/11
Wei-Yin Chen: 7/11
Drew Pomeranz: 7/11
Julio Teheran: 6/12
Phil Hughes: 6/11
Jered Weaver: 6/11
Jeremy Hellickson: 6/12
Mike Fiers: 5/11
Tom Kohler: 5/11
Patrick Corbin: 5/11
Jhoulys Chacin: 4/10
None of this is predictive, especially if you're trying to figure out how someone will do moving to the AL East with Fenway for a home park. But it's interesting to see how badly 2/5 of our rotation has done in these terms.
There is a big difference in the stress on your bullpen between a starter consistently going 5 innings vs. 6 innings, and when you have a good offense a guy who only allows 3 or 4 runs and hands it off in the 7th gives you a great chance to win. Johnny Qualitystart would be the ideal addition to this rotation, but it's going to be hard to find a guy who can do that.
Here are how some possibly available pitchers (and a couple others just for the hell of it) have done so far:
Bart Colon: 6/12
Doug Fister: 8/11
Shields: 8/11
Rich Hill: 8/11
Jimmy Nelson: 8/12
Jeff Locke: 7/11
Wei-Yin Chen: 7/11
Drew Pomeranz: 7/11
Julio Teheran: 6/12
Phil Hughes: 6/11
Jered Weaver: 6/11
Jeremy Hellickson: 6/12
Mike Fiers: 5/11
Tom Kohler: 5/11
Patrick Corbin: 5/11
Jhoulys Chacin: 4/10
None of this is predictive, especially if you're trying to figure out how someone will do moving to the AL East with Fenway for a home park. But it's interesting to see how badly 2/5 of our rotation has done in these terms.
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Castillo doesn't solve their problem. He's currently hitting .205/.304/.320. He's unplayable without regard to acquisition cost.
Jon Morosi has been talking about Jose being available at the deadline if the Marlins are not in contention as early as February and kind of mentioned the possibility again last week. Fernandez is arb eligible next year and represented by Boras (FA 2019). There's no way Miami can afford two $250M+ contracts, right? If the Marlins are sitting below .500 in July, what would you give up to have a chance? Swihart, Moncada, Eduardo, Espinoza, Chavis, and Kopech? Can you pull of a trade without including someone like Bradley? I'd rather blow up the farm for Fernandez than give up any blue chip piece for Teheran and watch him struggle in the AL East.
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They're going to require proven talent for proven talent and I think the conversation starts with 2 of Bogaerts, Bradley and Betts and will continue with 3 more prospects.
I mentioned cliff lee in the dumpster diving thread, though discussion of him might fit better here. He'd only cost money, but I don't know how healthy or effective he is at this point. I'm also not sure if he wants to play anymore, though I don't think he's officially retired.
We wouldn't get any kind of significant rotation upgrade for him, and his contract means he's probably still a negative value asset, but that line with his defense is a legitimate major leaguer.
Rich Hill is the most reasonable answer to the rotation question. He's a free agent after this year, and he'd cost 3 mil the rest of the year. He's pitched very well, which means he'll have other suitors, but I think Oakland would take a package that included Chavis and kopech to get it done. Swihart and the injury probably takes him out of potential deals considering he may well miss the season, so that chip isn't likely to be part of any trades for arms. Someone like Owens should still have enough prospect shine to be worth something should push come to shove. This team does need an upgrade to the rotation and the pen, and there are few obvious internal candidates. I actually like the cliff Lee idea if he's able to pitch. Why not work him out?
Rich Hill's currently skipping starts with a groin injury; given his age and injury history I'd tread very carefully around the idea of giving up something good for him. I also think it's a bad idea to deal Kopech before he comes back and we see what we have with him this year. There's a serious fireballer shortage in the Sox system, and I hate to give him up just yet.
As for Cliff Lee, why is anyone assuming he's been staying in baseball shape for the last two years, or could get there quickly enough to contribute anything at all this season, let alone immediately?
And yet he's only one year older than hill, and unlike hill, he has a long track record of success and wouldn't require giving up prospects. He also had the kind of stuff that ages well.
He's far from ideal, clearly, but worth kicking the tires on before pursuing other options.
Trading Kopech for a Rich Hill rental seems like a particularly horrible idea. Hill's history scares the crap out of me, and Kopech is someone that I wouldn't get rid of casually.
No ones assuming anything. We're having a discussion of all possible options, none of which are ideal for various reasons, and his name hadn't been mentioned yet.
I have no problem kicking his tires. It's a long shot, but probably an interesting flyer. And I don't want any part of Hill and his inflated value.
He's been getting hit recently but since the Pirates have two elite pitching prospects what about Liriano? Maybe a swap of him for Buchholz and a small prospect? Probably won't work but just a thought.
This. With a severe lack of arms in the minors, I wouldn't look to move Kopech at all.
Are the Pirates really in a position to trade away a proven quality starter right now (even if his results thus far have been mediocre)? Yes they may have prospects on the cusp but they're also a top half of the league team with a fairly good chance of securing a wildcard berth. Can't see how exchanging Liriano for Buchholz improves them in the short term when that is most likely to be their focus at the deadline.
I frame my suggestion of a deal for hill or an investigation of cliff Lee solely with this goal in mind: get to the playoffs one more time with Ortiz. I'm notoriously protective of young talent, both at the minor league level and on the current roster. Ortiz' historical significance to this franchise trumps those considerations, and informs my efforts to bolster the 2016 team for this years pennant chase. I want all the tires kicked on any available pen or starting pitching asset, and would go so far as to start looking into a corner of bat like Braun, Bruce or cargo as well. I get that kopech and Chavis were first rounders, and both may come back to bite the franchise if they develop into something at the big league level. But I KNOW that Ortiz is retiring, and the franchise owes it to this player to make every attempt to make his final year include more potential October glory. I'll ride with dombrowskis history of doing what it takes to position his teams optimally for the playoff push, because Ortiz deserves it. I'll likely get hammered for this stance, but if you aren't among those who appreciates the historical significance of a player like Ortiz to the Red Sox, then my comments will seem very short sighted. I can live with that.
Are the odds really better that another team's drek is really better than the RS current crop of Buchholz and Kelly? Frankly, I would rather take my chance that one of the 2 of them puts it together then trading assets or spending more money on some other team's cast-offs.
Maybe try something unconventional like using them both as the #5 starter. One starts, let's say Buchholz , as soon as he gets in trouble he gets a quick hook. Koji, Barnes or Tazawa cleans up the remnants of that inning. Then Kelly comes in and hopefully finishes the game. At least they wouldn't completely burn through the pen automatically every 5th start. Tell them, don't worry about pitch count, just aim for 4-5 decent innings. I know with those two, that's easier said than done.
Maybe try something unconventional like using them both as the #5 starter. One starts, let's say Buchholz , as soon as he gets in trouble he gets a quick hook. Koji, Barnes or Tazawa cleans up the remnants of that inning. Then Kelly comes in and hopefully finishes the game. At least they wouldn't completely burn through the pen automatically every 5th start. Tell them, don't worry about pitch count, just aim for 4-5 decent innings. I know with those two, that's easier said than done.
Rich Hill has pitched over 100 innings in a year exactly once in his career. He has not pitched as many as 39 innings in a year since 2010. This year he is already at 64 innings, is 36 years old, and missed a start yesterday due to a groin injury. I would be very hesitant to expect him to provide steady, serviceable innings during the second half of this year. Of course I may be dead wrong but I wouldn't give up much to get him.
Thank you. I said as much on the prior page, but this apparently needs to be reiterated. The reasons that the Sox didn't re-sign Hill remain valid -- he is a very, very high-risk starter. Paying Beane a king's ransom for Hill seems extremely foolhardy.
Z.Wheeler. The Mets were willing to trade him last season. He is coming back from Tommy John in July. What would the Mets want? They need a corner infielder, could use a CF as well. I would trade Travis Shaw for him but there are problems with that: (1) who plays 3b for the Red Sox? (2) The Mets might be reluctant to give up on Wheeler's upside. (3) This deal would likely benefit the Red Sox in 2017 and beyond, but I'm not sure if it helps their cause in 2016.
In agreement with what was discussed above: I also wouldn't trade Kopech for Rich Hill.
In agreement with what was discussed above: I also wouldn't trade Kopech for Rich Hill.
Of the starters mentioned in this thread, Hellickson and Pomeranz are the only guys that seem like they could have sustainable performances. But there's the whole transition from NL-to-AL issue (pertinent considering Hellickson's past failures in Tampa, although his K-rate has jumped considerably since Arizona). I think Dave Cameron's suggestion of Greinke is intriguing, but don't envision any deal that works for both teams.
BP help in the form of Arodys Vizcaino is what I think is needed. The rotation and farm has enough arms to put 5 reasonable pitchers into the rotation. As long as Price, Wright & Porcello stay healthy then the rotation will be fine. Rodriguez if he returns to his old self will be insurance. The rest can fill in the fifth spot.
The rest have been filling in the fifth spot. It's been less than desirable and one of the main reasons for this thread.
I mean, a .624 OPS would put him behind 65 qualified MLB OFers, ahead of only Justin Upton, Kevin Pillar and Billy Burns. And that's Castillo's AAA line.
He'd have to be a GG CF to have any value with those numbers, but he's only even managed to get 1 game there this year, so there's just no evidence he can do that.
You mean beside the fact that he's played CF for years and was doing it in Pawtucket?
At a gold glove level? He has solid range and a strong arm but his routes are iffy and he's prone to gaffs. I don't think there's much evidence that his glove is good enough to carry that bat. Never mind after you adjust that line for the difference in level.
Well, his last appearance was less than an inning so maybe he's getting prepped.
Unfortunately, it was a start.
I realize the purpose of the thread. I just think it's more important to solidify the pen than worry about the fifth starter. Someone mentioned that we can easily rotate the remaining starters through the fifth spot. Stay with anyone who may be hot and switching to the next guy when they cool off. Now, that depends on if any of them can go more than a couple of inns. I just don't feel the Sox need to spend on a fifth starter at this stage.
I agree 100% about the need for bullpen help. My comment was just to the point about filling in the fifth slot with whoever's available. Pretty much been the case with Buchholz, Kelly, Owens and O'Sullivan which hasn't work great thus far and has contributed to the wear and tear on the bullpen.
Clay Buchholz for Yordano Ventura... who says no?
I also like the idea of giving Mark Buehrle's agent a call as that would just cost money.
I also like the idea of giving Mark Buehrle's agent a call as that would just cost money.
Well, Ventura actually has a worse xFIP than Buchholz and has also managed to piss off the vast majority of his teammates (let alone baseball) so...
I've read that Ventura idolizes Pedro... and Ventura was quite good in 2014 and over the second half last year. I'm not sure who would say no, but I bet KC could get a better offer if it put Ventura on the market.
Pretty big risk but with significant upside as a 25 year old pitcher with a very reasonable contract over the next few years. I'd pair Buccholz and a lesser prospect and see if the Royals would bite.
Pretty big risk but with significant upside as a 25 year old pitcher with a very reasonable contract over the next few years. I'd pair Buccholz and a lesser prospect and see if the Royals would bite.
I have the remainder of his contract including his age list below. I'm not so sure that this is a contract that you might be looking to "get out from under". I can certainly see why KC might be looking to move him, but I'm guessing they would be eyeing a better return than Buchholz. I'm also curious as to if he has any options left. Now if I'm the Sox do I do this deal? If he can be had for Buchholz straight up, I'm not sure how you don't do it. The Sox do have needs in the rotation as well as the back end of the bullpen. I say send him down to Pawtucket (if that's an option) and let Pedro spend some time with him. Maybe Ortiz can give him a talking to and there is a good core of young players who perhaps might be able to influence him. You'll pay him less than $800,000 for the remainder of this year and very reasonable money for the next three. And by the time 2020 and 2021 roll around, that $12 million per year could be a steal. Getting back to my original post...Ventura for Buchholz, I don't think the Royals make that deal.
2016 25 Kansas City Royals $1,200,000
2017 26 Kansas City Royals $3,450,000
2018 27 Kansas City Royals $6,450,000
2019 28 Kansas City Royals $9,950,000
2020 29 Kansas City Royals *$12,000,000 $12M Team Option, $1M Buyout
2021 30 Kansas City Royals *$12,000,000 $12M Team Option, $1M Buyout
Adjusting for the remainder of this season that's just less than $45 million for 5 1/2 years.
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Yeah, the Royals would probably prefer to get Ventura's head on straight to trading him. Even if they would agree to take Buchholz as part of the deal, Boston's going to have to pay some of the freight and definitely pitch in a prospect or two. It's worth exploring, though, if Pedro and Ortiz could help keep him in line.