Red Sox in season discussion

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,395
Bogaerts has an opt out after this season. His biggest payday in free agency comes as a shortstop. Anyone expecting him to say anything else right now is not being realistic. He’s been the consummate pro, teammate, and Red Sox leader. I think he’s earned our cutting him a bit of slack here.
 

bohous

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
4,662
Framingham
It's funny. I was assuming that if we are indeed kicking the tires on Freeman, that we had an offer in hand for JDM. Send him to the NL, and when Casas is ready, he and Freeman split 1B/DH duties.

Of course, that doesn't address the need for a RH hitting OF. It's a little confusing.
If RHH OFer is top priority, why isn't there more noise about Castellanos?
 

ngruz25

Bibby
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
19,193
Pittsburgh, PA
It'd be a little odd for the Sox to commit a bunch of money and/or prospects to Castellanos after trading Hunter Renfroe away, wouldn't it?

I'd imagine that Suzuki is Plan A, and if that doesn't pan out, finding a cheaper backup RHH OF and committing the money to Schwarber, pitching, or something else.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
13,274
Free agent OF still available

Bryant
Castellanos
Conforto
Schwarber
Pham
Rosario
Pederson
Dickerson
Pham
Soler
Suzuki

Not an overly compelling list after the first few guys. Tommy Pham might be worth a flier; career 854 ops vs lefties. But he’s 34, and wasn’t great last year. But might be most amenable to a short term deal.

It’s sort of weird that they suddenly need an OF who hits lefties when they had Renfroe. Could have kept him, with Duran in the role of JBJ, and had more payroll to work with. But…prospects?
 

bohous

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
4,662
Framingham
He got a qualifying offer, but I’m unclear whether compensation picks are still a thing under the new CBA. Anyone know for sure?
Ah, this makes sense. Deal breaker if so.

Below average defender and was initially looking for a 7-8 year deal.
I don't watch a lot of Reds games but know he was primarily RF, so figure you could slide him into LF and Verdugo to RF. I'm not sure he gets 7-8 years.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Ah, this makes sense. Deal breaker if so.



I don't watch a lot of Reds games but know he was primarily RF, so figure you could slide him into LF and Verdugo to RF. I'm not sure he gets 7-8 years.
Oh, there's no way he gets 7-8, but he opted out of Cincy leaving 2 years and 34M on the table. He's going to want a higher AAV if he takes less years.
 

pokey_reese

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 25, 2008
16,368
Boston, MA
Count me among those who don’t want this, and don’t really buy it, unless the price is far below what I’m expecting. Too many DH/1B players is not the way to make a roster, unless Casas is fetching us a great SP piece. I know that they aren’t as plentiful as they were, so maybe they are now undervalued, but it feels like old first basemen are not prime assets.
 

BornToRun

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 4, 2011
17,653
Casey Close must pay Heyman by the tweet. This is like the 5th time he’s linked the Sox to Freeman today.

If we actually sign Freeman I’ll change my avatar to Heyman’s face.
If we’re going to give a ton of money to a left handed power hitter, just give it to the guy who already balled out for us in the second half of last year and into the playoffs.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,692
I wasn’t considering Freeman at all until the Olson trade. I think whenever a top-5 hitter in baseball can be had for only money you gotta go for it, especially if he can still pick it. Remember that we still have the protected #41 draft pick from Fabian so the pick we’d lose is #67 or so.

It would be sad to trade Casas but I have no doubt he’d fetch someone terrific. The likelihood that he’s Casey Kotchman is a lot higher than he is Freddie Freeman, and trading good hitting prospects for pitching is exactly what the Sox need to do.

The end of the shift era really does change the projections how Freeman would age. He could hit .325 until he’s 36. We also definitely have the money, and he is beloved by so many players that I’m sure it would have a positive effect on the clubhouse and future signings.

I still think the Dodgers will get him but bringing him to Boston makes a lot of sense to me.
 

budcrew08

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 30, 2007
8,932
upstate NY
If Correa is off the table, I would be all-in on Freddie Freeman. Great player, high character. He can play 1B this year and between him, Devers, or Casas could all rotate through the DH slot after this year when JD is a free agent. This would be a no-brainer to me.

Hernandez CF
Bogaerts SS
Devers 3B
Freeman 1B
Martinez DH
Verdugo LF
Arroyo 2B
Vazquez C
Bradley RF

Bench: Duran, Dalbec, Plawecki, Arauz

Heck of a lineup.
How many homers would Devers hit with Freddie behind him in the lineup? Lots.
 

Lowrielicious

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 19, 2011
4,328
The end of the shift era really does change the projections how Freeman would age. He could hit .325 until he’s 36. We also definitely have the money, and he is beloved by so many players that I’m sure it would have a positive effect on the clubhouse and future signings.
This is the part that makes me think this may be more than just driving up the price.
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
Count me among those who don’t want this, and don’t really buy it, unless the price is far below what I’m expecting. Too many DH/1B players is not the way to make a roster, unless Casas is fetching us a great SP piece. I know that they aren’t as plentiful as they were, so maybe they are now undervalued, but it feels like old first basemen are not prime assets.
I'm skeptical of this possibility as well (both its wisdom and its likelihood) but lumping Freeman into a broad "DH/1B player" category is not really fair. He's a superstar with an MVP, multiple Silver Sluggers, and a Gold Glove (despite mediocre advanced defensive stats) to his resume and a career 138 OPS+ (8th among active players, same ballpark as Goldschmidt and Jose Abreu, and for context Devers' highest OPS+ so far is 132). And as mentioned, the impending end of the shift could be a big deal for Freeman.

It would not suck to have Freeman in the lineup for the next 3-4 years. After that... less clear, but those 3-4 years would have been pretty great.
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sox traded for AG when he was 28, Freeman turns 33 in September.
Which is why this is even more worrying to me. Now granted the situation isn’t an exact corollary, but go back and look at what everyone was saying about AGON and his bat, and then look at this thread and what’s being said about Freeman (or X). Those similarities worry me, and when you get right down to it every player’s aging curve ultimately looks the same, no matter their athleticism…
 

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sox traded for AG when he was 28, Freeman turns 33 in September.
… and I’ll add that this looks like it will be a pretty big (no pun intended) issue for the Yankees coming up with Judge hitting FA. He seems like he’s going to have similar concerns, and the Yankees have a pretty easy example of how things can turn out already on the roster in Stanton.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,863
What do we think Freeman will cost? Fangraphs suggests 5 years at 25-27 mil AAV. Which is a little less than I would have guessed. I wouldn't hate that.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
It'd be fine but the move generally doesn't fit the puzzle. Sox have a good 1B that basically single-handedly pushed them into the playoffs last season (Dalbec) in the 2nd half and showed improvement defensively too at 1/100th the cost. Sure, yes... in every possible way Freeman is an upgrade over Dalbec of course, but comparing players needs to be placed in context of the entire team both short term, long term and with a possible spending ceiling in mind. I don't see it happening. I also don't want to see him in Toronto either....
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
13,274
What do we think Freeman will cost? Fangraphs suggests 5 years at 25-27 mil AAV. Which is a little less than I would have guessed. I wouldn't hate that.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
that seems way too low, if he was willing to sign for that, I think the Braves would have resigned him. I’d imagine 7/$200.

Interesting to look back at these predictions; they appear to have underestimated the market across the board (with E-Rod being a notable exception in the other direction).
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 2, 2006
11,423
NJ
If you can sign Freeman for that money it’s a no brainer. I refuse to get my hopes up though. I just don’t see any downside in landing a guy like him barring injury which is the same for everyone.
 

BringBackMo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,395
I continue to believe that a Freeman signing is quite unlikely, but some of the concerns expressed here surprise me.

Not the exact same circumstances, but this has whiffs of the Adrian Gonzalez experience, which I am not eager to repeat.
If the Adrian Gonzalez experience Is the floor here, sign me up to roll the dice on the median outcome or better. Gonzalez didn’t hit like a superstar here but he was quite good. He hit slightly better in his first year in Boston than he did in his final stud year in SD (155 OPS+ vs 152). And though he tailed off quite a bit in his second year, he was hardly a bust: .300/.343/.469, 117 OPS+

Gonzalez went on to play above average ball for three years after the trade, with OPS+ of 125, 130, and 131. Then came a passable 111, then putrid 70 and 88. So he fell off a cliff in his age 35 season, which is a red flag. But he’s just one comp.

Sox traded for AG when he was 28, Freeman turns 33 in September.
This to me is another way of saying that Freeman will be 32 for all but a few weeks of the upcoming season. 32 is scary enough to be handing out long term contracts, let’s not prematurely age the man!

I think it’s reasonable to expect three great to above-average years out of Freeman. The runway could be even longer or it could be shorter. If he can be had for 6 years, that’s half the life of the contract as a key contributor, then maybe you get a season and a half of average production and maybe a season and a half of suckitude? By then the tax level will have risen quite a bit and the contract isn’t any kind of albatross. Plus, that’s just sort of the cost of doing business in free agency. I still very much prefer seeing what we have in Casas and Dalbec. If they don’t work out, we can simply sign some other free-agent masher down the line. That gamble seems worth it to me because it holds the potential for the Sox to allocate resources now to more pronounced areas of need. But Freddie Freeman is a stud and I can definitely see the reasons why the Sox would be interested.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
32,661
Jays are trading for Matt Chapman. They must be out on Freeman, then, right?
Chapman is still only something like $6.5 mil this year, so I'm not sure the two are mutually exclusive cost-wise. But you do wonder if they want to make the overall commitment to Freeman with Chapman's cost going up over time and, presumably, some young talent going the other way to acquire him.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,995
deep inside Guido territory
Chapman is still only something like $6.5 mil this year, so I'm not sure the two are mutually exclusive cost-wise. But you do wonder if they want to make the overall commitment to Freeman with Chapman's cost going up over time and, presumably, some young talent going the other way to acquire him.
With Chapman and vlad they have their corner guys. Schwarber makes more sense for them now
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,126
With the way the current system is set up at the higher level, the contract situation with Bogaerts, and the biggest weakness of this team being infield defense, I will be very disappointed if the major signing this year if Freeman rather than Correa.

Correa is 26, immediately fixes both the defense and Bogaerts problem, and is a much better fit for 2023-2030 than Freeman.

I LOVE Freeman. He’s an unbelievable player but I just can’t see the fit especially with Correa is sitting right there and Casas is a year away.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
13,274
Jays were a 100 win team last year by Pythag, and they appear to be improved. Rays are the Rays. Yankees have certainly gotten better. Hooray for expanded postseason, but man, the AL East is looking pretty tough and the current Sox squad looks worse than the one they ended last season with. What’s the plan for this season?
 

pokey_reese

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 25, 2008
16,368
Boston, MA
Damn, that one stings a little, just because the money is so short. However, I saw the good point made somewhere yesterday (I can't remember where, or I would post the link), that some fairly has-been/never-was type former MLB guys put up a .950+ OPS in Japan last year, so it's not a sure thing that Suzuki adjusts as well as some of the other star hitters coming over have. Still, the fact that he has done it consistently, and is in his prime, make me think it's more likely than not that he will be successful. Not even a good weather team! Makes me wonder if the Sox weren't actually as interested as Twitter made it seem.
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
997
Other than the Dodgers, who is in the market for Freeman?

Angels? Nationals? Maybe Houston?

I'm skeptical that the Rays are in for a long term deal and I'm assuming that Freeman would prefer to go to a team that has a chance to win sooner than later.

I'm wondering if this noise is a response by Freeman's camp to a tepid market.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
31,508
With the way the current system is set up at the higher level, the contract situation with Bogaerts, and the biggest weakness of this team being infield defense, I will be very disappointed if the major signing this year if Freeman rather than Correa.

Correa is 26, immediately fixes both the defense and Bogaerts problem, and is a much better fit for 2023-2030 than Freeman.

I LOVE Freeman. He’s an unbelievable player but I just can’t see the fit especially with Correa is sitting right there and Casas is a year away.
Minor nit...while Freman wont "fix" IF defense, he will help improve it.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,692
With the way the current system is set up at the higher level, the contract situation with Bogaerts, and the biggest weakness of this team being infield defense, I will be very disappointed if the major signing this year if Freeman rather than Correa.

Correa is 26, immediately fixes both the defense and Bogaerts problem, and is a much better fit for 2023-2030 than Freeman.

I LOVE Freeman. He’s an unbelievable player but I just can’t see the fit especially with Correa is sitting right there and Casas is a year away.
I think I agree with this and think Correa makes more sense. But unlike a Correa signing, the Freeman scenario immediately gives us one very solid trade chip and another decent one, and maybe Bloom knows he can fill other needs with those that are tougher to fill in FA.

Maybe Freeman gives us an inside track on a Dansby Swanson signing next year if it comes to that?
 

KingChre

New Member
Jul 31, 2009
131
It'd be fine but the move generally doesn't fit the puzzle. Sox have a good 1B that basically single-handedly pushed them into the playoffs last season (Dalbec) in the 2nd half and showed improvement defensively too at 1/100th the cost. Sure, yes... in every possible way Freeman is an upgrade over Dalbec of course, but comparing players needs to be placed in context of the entire team both short term, long term and with a possible spending ceiling in mind. I don't see it happening. I also don't want to see him in Toronto either....
I wouldn't exactly say they have a "good" 1B. Dalbec got really hot for 2.5 months and then didn't hit in the playoffs when the pitching got tough.

I'm torn on Freeman but turning him down because they have Dalbec waiting in the wings is silly.

I understand that's not what you are saying and I agree that all acquisitions must be considered within the context of the larger puzzle. I just don't think Dalbec's presence should affect their thinking on Freeman at all.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
8,224
Boston, MA
I've thought Suzuki could be a JD Drew type hitter in MLB. It's funny that he got the exact contract Drew signed with the Red Sox, 16 years later.

The current Red Sox outfield is Verdugo, Martinez, Kike, and Jackie with Durran on the shuttle. Ideally Martinez wouldn't ever be in the field, but you could start the season as is if the other options don't work out.