Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
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Bogaerts has an opt out after this season. His biggest payday in free agency comes as a shortstop. Anyone expecting him to say anything else right now is not being realistic. He’s been the consummate pro, teammate, and Red Sox leader. I think he’s earned our cutting him a bit of slack here.
He got a qualifying offer, but I’m unclear whether compensation picks are still a thing under the new CBA. Anyone know for sure?
It'd be a little odd for the Sox to commit a bunch of money and/or prospects to Castellanos after trading Hunter Renfroe away, wouldn't it?
I'd imagine that Suzuki is Plan A, and if that doesn't pan out, finding a cheaper backup RHH OF and committing the money to Schwarber, pitching, or something else.
I'd imagine that Suzuki is Plan A, and if that doesn't pan out, finding a cheaper backup RHH OF and committing the money to Schwarber, pitching, or something else.
Free agent OF still available
Bryant
Castellanos
Conforto
Schwarber
Pham
Rosario
Pederson
Dickerson
Pham
Soler
Suzuki
Not an overly compelling list after the first few guys. Tommy Pham might be worth a flier; career 854 ops vs lefties. But he’s 34, and wasn’t great last year. But might be most amenable to a short term deal.
It’s sort of weird that they suddenly need an OF who hits lefties when they had Renfroe. Could have kept him, with Duran in the role of JBJ, and had more payroll to work with. But…prospects?
Bryant
Castellanos
Conforto
Schwarber
Pham
Rosario
Pederson
Dickerson
Pham
Soler
Suzuki
Not an overly compelling list after the first few guys. Tommy Pham might be worth a flier; career 854 ops vs lefties. But he’s 34, and wasn’t great last year. But might be most amenable to a short term deal.
It’s sort of weird that they suddenly need an OF who hits lefties when they had Renfroe. Could have kept him, with Duran in the role of JBJ, and had more payroll to work with. But…prospects?
Ah, this makes sense. Deal breaker if so.
I don't watch a lot of Reds games but know he was primarily RF, so figure you could slide him into LF and Verdugo to RF. I'm not sure he gets 7-8 years.
Oh, there's no way he gets 7-8, but he opted out of Cincy leaving 2 years and 34M on the table. He's going to want a higher AAV if he takes less years.
Rizzo just resigned with the MFY ..... could we really end up with Freddie?
Personally, I think he destined for Canada
Personally, I think he destined for Canada
Nope. I’m not going to get my hopes up.
I am going to pretend I did not see this tweet so I can be surprised if they sign him.
Heyman has had a pretty good finger on the 1B market so far. He called Rizzo to the Yankees as the most likely outcome a few days ago.
Knew I shouldn't have checked Twitter before bed. For better or worse, I'm optimistic. Go Chaim, go.
Count me among those who don’t want this, and don’t really buy it, unless the price is far below what I’m expecting. Too many DH/1B players is not the way to make a roster, unless Casas is fetching us a great SP piece. I know that they aren’t as plentiful as they were, so maybe they are now undervalued, but it feels like old first basemen are not prime assets.
Casey Close must pay Heyman by the tweet. This is like the 5th time he’s linked the Sox to Freeman today.
If we actually sign Freeman I’ll change my avatar to Heyman’s face.
If we’re going to give a ton of money to a left handed power hitter, just give it to the guy who already balled out for us in the second half of last year and into the playoffs.
I wasn’t considering Freeman at all until the Olson trade. I think whenever a top-5 hitter in baseball can be had for only money you gotta go for it, especially if he can still pick it. Remember that we still have the protected #41 draft pick from Fabian so the pick we’d lose is #67 or so.
It would be sad to trade Casas but I have no doubt he’d fetch someone terrific. The likelihood that he’s Casey Kotchman is a lot higher than he is Freddie Freeman, and trading good hitting prospects for pitching is exactly what the Sox need to do.
The end of the shift era really does change the projections how Freeman would age. He could hit .325 until he’s 36. We also definitely have the money, and he is beloved by so many players that I’m sure it would have a positive effect on the clubhouse and future signings.
I still think the Dodgers will get him but bringing him to Boston makes a lot of sense to me.
It would be sad to trade Casas but I have no doubt he’d fetch someone terrific. The likelihood that he’s Casey Kotchman is a lot higher than he is Freddie Freeman, and trading good hitting prospects for pitching is exactly what the Sox need to do.
The end of the shift era really does change the projections how Freeman would age. He could hit .325 until he’s 36. We also definitely have the money, and he is beloved by so many players that I’m sure it would have a positive effect on the clubhouse and future signings.
I still think the Dodgers will get him but bringing him to Boston makes a lot of sense to me.
How many homers would Devers hit with Freddie behind him in the lineup? Lots.
This is the part that makes me think this may be more than just driving up the price.
I'm skeptical of this possibility as well (both its wisdom and its likelihood) but lumping Freeman into a broad "DH/1B player" category is not really fair. He's a superstar with an MVP, multiple Silver Sluggers, and a Gold Glove (despite mediocre advanced defensive stats) to his resume and a career 138 OPS+ (8th among active players, same ballpark as Goldschmidt and Jose Abreu, and for context Devers' highest OPS+ so far is 132). And as mentioned, the impending end of the shift could be a big deal for Freeman.
It would not suck to have Freeman in the lineup for the next 3-4 years. After that... less clear, but those 3-4 years would have been pretty great.
Heyman really banging the Freeman to Sox drum.
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1503936072438452224
"Yankees tried hard for Freeman but have the clear impression at this point that he preferred not to come. Their fear: rival Red Sox could still land the superstar 1B"
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1503936072438452224
"Yankees tried hard for Freeman but have the clear impression at this point that he preferred not to come. Their fear: rival Red Sox could still land the superstar 1B"
Not the exact same circumstances, but this has whiffs of the Adrian Gonzalez experience, which I am not eager to repeat.
Which is why this is even more worrying to me. Now granted the situation isn’t an exact corollary, but go back and look at what everyone was saying about AGON and his bat, and then look at this thread and what’s being said about Freeman (or X). Those similarities worry me, and when you get right down to it every player’s aging curve ultimately looks the same, no matter their athleticism…
What do we think Freeman will cost? Fangraphs suggests 5 years at 25-27 mil AAV. Which is a little less than I would have guessed. I wouldn't hate that.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
… and I’ll add that this looks like it will be a pretty big (no pun intended) issue for the Yankees coming up with Judge hitting FA. He seems like he’s going to have similar concerns, and the Yankees have a pretty easy example of how things can turn out already on the roster in Stanton.
It'd be fine but the move generally doesn't fit the puzzle. Sox have a good 1B that basically single-handedly pushed them into the playoffs last season (Dalbec) in the 2nd half and showed improvement defensively too at 1/100th the cost. Sure, yes... in every possible way Freeman is an upgrade over Dalbec of course, but comparing players needs to be placed in context of the entire team both short term, long term and with a possible spending ceiling in mind. I don't see it happening. I also don't want to see him in Toronto either....
that seems way too low, if he was willing to sign for that, I think the Braves would have resigned him. I’d imagine 7/$200.
Interesting to look back at these predictions; they appear to have underestimated the market across the board (with E-Rod being a notable exception in the other direction).
If you can sign Freeman for that money it’s a no brainer. I refuse to get my hopes up though. I just don’t see any downside in landing a guy like him barring injury which is the same for everyone.
I continue to believe that a Freeman signing is quite unlikely, but some of the concerns expressed here surprise me.
Gonzalez went on to play above average ball for three years after the trade, with OPS+ of 125, 130, and 131. Then came a passable 111, then putrid 70 and 88. So he fell off a cliff in his age 35 season, which is a red flag. But he’s just one comp.
I think it’s reasonable to expect three great to above-average years out of Freeman. The runway could be even longer or it could be shorter. If he can be had for 6 years, that’s half the life of the contract as a key contributor, then maybe you get a season and a half of average production and maybe a season and a half of suckitude? By then the tax level will have risen quite a bit and the contract isn’t any kind of albatross. Plus, that’s just sort of the cost of doing business in free agency. I still very much prefer seeing what we have in Casas and Dalbec. If they don’t work out, we can simply sign some other free-agent masher down the line. That gamble seems worth it to me because it holds the potential for the Sox to allocate resources now to more pronounced areas of need. But Freddie Freeman is a stud and I can definitely see the reasons why the Sox would be interested.
If the Adrian Gonzalez experience Is the floor here, sign me up to roll the dice on the median outcome or better. Gonzalez didn’t hit like a superstar here but he was quite good. He hit slightly better in his first year in Boston than he did in his final stud year in SD (155 OPS+ vs 152). And though he tailed off quite a bit in his second year, he was hardly a bust: .300/.343/.469, 117 OPS+
Gonzalez went on to play above average ball for three years after the trade, with OPS+ of 125, 130, and 131. Then came a passable 111, then putrid 70 and 88. So he fell off a cliff in his age 35 season, which is a red flag. But he’s just one comp.
This to me is another way of saying that Freeman will be 32 for all but a few weeks of the upcoming season. 32 is scary enough to be handing out long term contracts, let’s not prematurely age the man!
I think it’s reasonable to expect three great to above-average years out of Freeman. The runway could be even longer or it could be shorter. If he can be had for 6 years, that’s half the life of the contract as a key contributor, then maybe you get a season and a half of average production and maybe a season and a half of suckitude? By then the tax level will have risen quite a bit and the contract isn’t any kind of albatross. Plus, that’s just sort of the cost of doing business in free agency. I still very much prefer seeing what we have in Casas and Dalbec. If they don’t work out, we can simply sign some other free-agent masher down the line. That gamble seems worth it to me because it holds the potential for the Sox to allocate resources now to more pronounced areas of need. But Freddie Freeman is a stud and I can definitely see the reasons why the Sox would be interested.
Chapman is still only something like $6.5 mil this year, so I'm not sure the two are mutually exclusive cost-wise. But you do wonder if they want to make the overall commitment to Freeman with Chapman's cost going up over time and, presumably, some young talent going the other way to acquire him.
With Chapman and vlad they have their corner guys. Schwarber makes more sense for them now
With the way the current system is set up at the higher level, the contract situation with Bogaerts, and the biggest weakness of this team being infield defense, I will be very disappointed if the major signing this year if Freeman rather than Correa.
Correa is 26, immediately fixes both the defense and Bogaerts problem, and is a much better fit for 2023-2030 than Freeman.
I LOVE Freeman. He’s an unbelievable player but I just can’t see the fit especially with Correa is sitting right there and Casas is a year away.
Correa is 26, immediately fixes both the defense and Bogaerts problem, and is a much better fit for 2023-2030 than Freeman.
I LOVE Freeman. He’s an unbelievable player but I just can’t see the fit especially with Correa is sitting right there and Casas is a year away.
Jays were a 100 win team last year by Pythag, and they appear to be improved. Rays are the Rays. Yankees have certainly gotten better. Hooray for expanded postseason, but man, the AL East is looking pretty tough and the current Sox squad looks worse than the one they ended last season with. What’s the plan for this season?
Damn, that one stings a little, just because the money is so short. However, I saw the good point made somewhere yesterday (I can't remember where, or I would post the link), that some fairly has-been/never-was type former MLB guys put up a .950+ OPS in Japan last year, so it's not a sure thing that Suzuki adjusts as well as some of the other star hitters coming over have. Still, the fact that he has done it consistently, and is in his prime, make me think it's more likely than not that he will be successful. Not even a good weather team! Makes me wonder if the Sox weren't actually as interested as Twitter made it seem.
Other than the Dodgers, who is in the market for Freeman?
Angels? Nationals? Maybe Houston?
I'm skeptical that the Rays are in for a long term deal and I'm assuming that Freeman would prefer to go to a team that has a chance to win sooner than later.
I'm wondering if this noise is a response by Freeman's camp to a tepid market.
Angels? Nationals? Maybe Houston?
I'm skeptical that the Rays are in for a long term deal and I'm assuming that Freeman would prefer to go to a team that has a chance to win sooner than later.
I'm wondering if this noise is a response by Freeman's camp to a tepid market.
Ouch. Yeah... this stings. Now I really hope the Sox are going for Schwarber. I suspect with the Jays likely out (I swear I saw that the Braves traded for Chapman...) it really makes sense.
Edit- Sorry.... Matt Olson. NM.
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I think I agree with this and think Correa makes more sense. But unlike a Correa signing, the Freeman scenario immediately gives us one very solid trade chip and another decent one, and maybe Bloom knows he can fill other needs with those that are tougher to fill in FA.
Maybe Freeman gives us an inside track on a Dansby Swanson signing next year if it comes to that?
I wouldn't exactly say they have a "good" 1B. Dalbec got really hot for 2.5 months and then didn't hit in the playoffs when the pitching got tough.
I'm torn on Freeman but turning him down because they have Dalbec waiting in the wings is silly.
I understand that's not what you are saying and I agree that all acquisitions must be considered within the context of the larger puzzle. I just don't think Dalbec's presence should affect their thinking on Freeman at all.
I've thought Suzuki could be a JD Drew type hitter in MLB. It's funny that he got the exact contract Drew signed with the Red Sox, 16 years later.
The current Red Sox outfield is Verdugo, Martinez, Kike, and Jackie with Durran on the shuttle. Ideally Martinez wouldn't ever be in the field, but you could start the season as is if the other options don't work out.
After all that bluster about Suzuki preferring warm weather, he goes and signs with Chicago.