Red Sox Trade Deadline Thread

shaggydog2000

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Good. I like him but the Sox need to sell as many marketable pieces as they can (excluding guys like Devers, etc.).
He, JBJ, and Pillar are going to be free agents, so I expect to hear trade rumors about all of them. Moreland has a club option, but I could see him getting shopped too.
 

54thMA

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Pretty disappointing that we're going to be sellers vs buyers at the trade deadline; I should count my blessings that in my lifetime, this has not been the case in most seasons and the team was in contention for the division or a wild card spot.

The owners of this team really lucked out with no fans in the stands/ a drastically shorten schedule this year, can you imagine what the attendance would be if this was a 162 game season?

The ballpark would look like it did in the early to mid 1960's.

It's incredible to see how badly this team has cratered after that 2018 season when they were wire to wire the best team in the league.

Unreal.

If it's an either or situation, I'd rather have won four WS titles in the past sixteen years and have drastic drops in performance thrown in vs being like the Yankees, having won one WS title in that time but being in contention almost every year.

Being in contention and not winning it all means nothing in the end; I'll take titles and being up and down vs being consistent and only winning one.
 

allmanbro

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The owners of this team really lucked out with no fans in the stands/ a drastically shorten schedule this year, can you imagine what the attendance would be if this was a 162 game season?
I get what you are saying here regarding fans. On the topic of trades, I would guess that the shortened/more volatile season will mean a smaller return for the rentals they are shopping. When luck is playing a bigger role relative to talent, the marginal value of adding a guy like Workman or JBJ is reduced.

This might not apply to a team that has not had a shot in a long time trying to take advantage of an unexpected run, like maybe San Diego, Miami, Baltimore, or the Mets. I still think the overall trend will be smaller returns.
 

dynomite

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Obviously a bizarre trade deadline for so many reasons. With expanded playoffs, most of the league is still in plausible Wild Card contention. Also, in a normal season we would still be in late April with minor league seasons underway, whereas now we have tiny samples size for Major Leaguers and basically no information on minor league trade candidates since the Fall and Winter leagues and Spring Training.

And then, of course, the elephant in the room: how likely are the playoffs to even happen this season? Two teams have already had outbreaks and been shut down for a while, the Mets are currently in isolation and postponing games indefinitely, and scientists continue to warn about a 2nd wave in the fall. As someone pointed out in another thread, how much are teams willing to give up in prospect return for a season that isn't guaranteed to finish?

For all these reasons, I'm with @allmanbro above: expect smaller returns, and don't expect teams to part with any of their top prospects.

For the Sox, is this the consensus?

Certain/expected to be traded: Workman, JBJ, Pillar. If they can get literally anything for the impending free agents, have at it.

Possible to be traded: Barnes, Moreland, Martin Perez, and the biggest question mark: JD Martinez? Is that right?

A lot of this, of course, depends upon their view of 2021. If they think they can contend next year, Moreland is a good and affordable piece to keep around, and Perez is rotation depth they probably want. If they don't think they're competing in 2021, those priorities change.
 

BaseballJones

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The biggest question mark is probably Bogaerts. On a GREAT long-term deal, but can opt-out after this season. A risky move on his part should he go that route, because of the Covid situation impacting league finances but it's a risk for Boston to hold on to him only to have him opt out.

The good news for Boston is that if he does opt out, the Sox have oodles of cash now to be able to pay him even as a free agent.

But still...he's a huge question mark.
 

shaggydog2000

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I get what you are saying here regarding fans. On the topic of trades, I would guess that the shortened/more volatile season will mean a smaller return for the rentals they are shopping. When luck is playing a bigger role relative to talent, the marginal value of adding a guy like Workman or JBJ is reduced.

This might not apply to a team that has not had a shot in a long time trying to take advantage of an unexpected run, like maybe San Diego, Miami, Baltimore, or the Mets. I still think the overall trend will be smaller returns.
There will also be more teams in the playoffs, so more buyers and less sellers than normal. Who knows how that will effect things.
 

Orel Miraculous

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The biggest question mark is probably Bogaerts. On a GREAT long-term deal, but can opt-out after this season. A risky move on his part should he go that route, because of the Covid situation impacting league finances but it's a risk for Boston to hold on to him only to have him opt out.

The good news for Boston is that if he does opt out, the Sox have oodles of cash now to be able to pay him even as a free agent.

But still...he's a huge question mark.
Pretty sure he can't opt out until after the 2022 season. He's not going anywhere.
 

allmanbro

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There will also be more teams in the playoffs, so more buyers and less sellers than normal. Who knows how that will effect things.
That should be very good for the sellers.
Having more teams buying CAN set up a bidding war, but I don't think the players the Sox are selling are good enough for that to be a factor. Maybe there is some individual team that sees this as an unexpected, one time shot, and goes all-in. This could make a difference, but it's hard to predict.

So my expectation is that prices are down as teams hedge, but I certain hope I am wrong.
 

benhogan

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Pretty disappointing that we're going to be sellers vs buyers at the trade deadline; I should definitely count my blessings that in my lifetime, this has not been the case in most 95% of the seasons and the team was in contention for the division or a wild card spot has won 4 World Championships over the last 15 years.
Did some editing, hope you don't mind.
 

shaggydog2000

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Having more teams buying CAN set up a bidding war, but I don't think the players the Sox are selling are good enough for that to be a factor. Maybe there is some individual team that sees this as an unexpected, one time shot, and goes all-in. This could make a difference, but it's hard to predict.

So my expectation is that prices are down as teams hedge, but I certain hope I am wrong.
It's a weird season. Maybe few sellers and more buyers makes it a good sellers market. Maybe teams think it's more of a crapshoot this season so why spend assets. Maybe teams have to factor in the playoffs even happening. Who knows is the theme of the year.
 

54thMA

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Did some editing, hope you don't mind.
I don't mind one bit as it's totally accurate.

I can't get worked up over a bad showing in shortened season in the middle of a worldwide pandemic, especially when as you pointed out this franchise has won four WS titles in my lifetime.

All I ever wanted was for them to win one, just one.

Four; a true embarrassment of riches.

I know a lot of people are torked off over the Betts trade and the signing of Sale, but again; four WS titles.

Not one, but FOUR.

Anyone who witnessed the 1967 WS, 1972, 1974, the 1975 WS, 1977, 1978, the 1986 WS and 2003 has no beef.

None.

It's like a Patriots fan complaining that the organization let Brady walk, the same organization that won 6 Super Bowls; try living through 1976, 1978, 1985 and 1996, plus all the buffoonery of the 1960's, the early 1970's and the late 1980's and early 1990's as well.
 

Ford Frick's Asterisk

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Since only players from the 60-man player pool are eligible to be traded this year, a lot of prospects from the lower rungs of organizations are off limits. I would think that makes it harder to pull off the "middling veteran for a lottery ticket" trade. Combined with the added randomness of a shorter season and larger playoffs (and uncertainty any of it gets completed), I don't think it's a good year to be a seller.
 

Rovin Romine

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Obviously a bizarre trade deadline for so many reasons. With expanded playoffs, most of the league is still in plausible Wild Card contention. Also, in a normal season we would still be in late April with minor league seasons underway, whereas now we have tiny samples size for Major Leaguers and basically no information on minor league trade candidates since the Fall and Winter leagues and Spring Training.

And then, of course, the elephant in the room: how likely are the playoffs to even happen this season? Two teams have already had outbreaks and been shut down for a while, the Mets are currently in isolation and postponing games indefinitely, and scientists continue to warn about a 2nd wave in the fall. As someone pointed out in another thread, how much are teams willing to give up in prospect return for a season that isn't guaranteed to finish?

For all these reasons, I'm with @allmanbro above: expect smaller returns, and don't expect teams to part with any of their top prospects.
While I think this is probably true, we might get a good return from a team that feels this might be a year to make a run for it - someone who hopes to get in, and then get lucky in the post season. But, I wouldn't expect a regular contender to mortgage their future for a short season ending in a tourney.
 

BaseballJones

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I dont hate Hembree. He's been good far more often than not. But if a team will actually trade a baseball player for him, do it ASAP.
Of course the crazy thing is, if Boston wants to compete in 2021, pitchers like Hembree will be needed to fill out the bullpen. Hembree makes 1.6m this year, and is arbitration eligible after that, so he's under team control through 2021. And he's been good for Boston throughout his career: 3.60 era, 1.37 whip (that's too high but manageable), 9.4 k/9. Not a frontline guy, but a really useful 5th type reliever who can pile up some innings.

So if they trade him, they'll just need to turn around and sign someone like him if they want a good bullpen next year.
 

sean1562

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I hope they do just trade all of the relievers but man will this pitching staff be terrible to watch after they do that. Maybe they are just gonna call up Mata, Groome, etc?
 

Merkle's Boner

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The other thing that makes this deadline difficult is that you have very little to no idea how the kids are developing. Who do you ask for? And who are the Sox counting on, for example, to replace Vazquez? I would really hope, other than bullpen arms, the Sox take a pass and focus on next year.
 

sean1562

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Of course the crazy thing is, if Boston wants to compete in 2021, pitchers like Hembree will be needed to fill out the bullpen. Hembree makes 1.6m this year, and is arbitration eligible after that, so he's under team control through 2021. And he's been good for Boston throughout his career: 3.60 era, 1.37 whip (that's too high but manageable), 9.4 k/9. Not a frontline guy, but a really useful 5th type reliever who can pile up some innings.

So if they trade him, they'll just need to turn around and sign someone like him if they want a good bullpen next year.
If they plan on being competitive next season, they are definitely going to need to sign some bullpen help. Bloom might like what he has seen out of Valdez, thinks Hernandez will be a big part of the pen next season, and just wants to get rid of some of these middling guys for whatever he can get for them. Hembree has been solid but certainly not an irreplaceable piece. Maybe Bloom wants to remake the bullpen/pitching based on his philosophy, not just the holdovers from the last management team.
 

nvalvo

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Phillies are 9-12. Why are they buying?
They have a tremendous offense with a 117 OPS+. FIP thinks they have a pretty good rotation, even if ERA thinks it's more average; eye-balling the strand rates, it's not hard to see what's going on there, especially for Zach Eflin (2.81 FIP, 5.14 ERA, 60.4 LOB%).

The bullpen has been a nightmare, with six losses and a 1.016 OPS allowed. They've lost a lot of close games (2-4 in one run games).

I wouldn't be surprised if they want Workman *and* Hembree, to move a bunch of guys down the depth chart.

I hope they do just trade all of the relievers but man will this pitching staff be terrible to watch after they do that. Maybe they are just gonna call up Mata, Groome, etc?
They just added Taylor and Hernandez from the COVID IL. It's a start.
 

Rovin Romine

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Of course the crazy thing is, if Boston wants to compete in 2021, pitchers like Hembree will be needed to fill out the bullpen. Hembree makes 1.6m this year, and is arbitration eligible after that, so he's under team control through 2021. And he's been good for Boston throughout his career: 3.60 era, 1.37 whip (that's too high but manageable), 9.4 k/9. Not a frontline guy, but a really useful 5th type reliever who can pile up some innings.

So if they trade him, they'll just need to turn around and sign someone like him if they want a good bullpen next year.
Yeah, but they'd theoretically get younger talent under longer control for Hembree now, plus a Lux Tax reset (if the season lasts 10 more days).

I don't know what the FA market looks like in terms of players, but that's where they'd go to find a replacement. If they think Hembree's deal is a valuable one (in terms of his output to his contract), which they couldn't find on the FA market, he's that much more valuable and that should up the prospect price paid for him. If Hembree's deal is market-rate, they can just go to the market and take normal trade value for him. (Whatever that might be in this crazy year.)
 

amfox1

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Non top-5 prospects in the Phillies 60 man roster pool (MLB top 30 team rankings, writeups & scouting by MLB and other sources, edited by me)

6. Adonis Medina, RHP: (future above-average slider, change & FB) Medina, who is on the 40-man roster, spent last season with Double-A Reading. Despite a stretch of very effective pitching near the middle of the year, it was a relatively disappointing season for the now-23-year-old. Medina had a 4.94 ERA in 105 2/3 innings for Reading. However, the right-hander is still young, and if starting does not work out, there is some thought that a move to the bullpen could work for Medina.

10. Enyel De Los Santos, RHP: (mid-to-upper 90s FB, inconsistant changeup) After he impressed and made his Major League debut in 2018, his first season with the organization, the right-hander struggled to replicate his dominance at Triple-A the following year. He posted a 7.36 ERA in 11 Major League innings before being left off of the Phillies expanded roster in September. A starter in the Minor Leagues, De Los Santos could be better prepared for a possible relief role this year. Not on 40-man roster after being DFA'd and outrighted.

15. JoJo Romero, LHP:
(curve, changeup, low-90s FB) Philly challenged Romero with a Triple-A assignment to begin 2019 and it didn’t work. He had a 9.64 ERA after seven starts and was sent back to Double-A Reading. He made adjustments and got back on track before gaining some velocity by putting up an 0.84 ERA in 10 2/3 AFL innings as a reliever. Maybe that was a breakthrough for Romero, and the Phillies could try him out of the bullpen this year. Has been on and off 28-man roster, currently off.

16. Damon Jones, LHP:
(four-pitch mix, incl mid-90s FB) An 18th-round pick in 2017, Jones used a breakout 2019 to put himself in the Phillies pitching mix. He was good in his first full season in 2018, posting a 3.41 ERA for Class A Lakewood. But he reached another level last year, dominating the Florida State League with a 1.54 ERA in 11 starts and the Eastern League with a 0.82 ERA in four starts. He had a rough finish to the season at Triple-A, and starting isn't out of the question moving forward, but the southpaw possesses a fastball-curveball combo that could play out of the Phillies’ bullpen.

17. Mauricio Llovera, RHP: (future plus splitter, above-avg slider, low-to-mid 90s FB) Llovera sports a three-pitch mix that got him into Double-A Reading’s rotation last season, and he posted a 4.55 ERA in 65 1/3 innings before a forearm injury ended his season. It would seem there are a handful of arms ahead of Llovera on the depth chart, but then again, there might be a handful of spots up for grabs on the big league pitching staff over the next few months. Llovera’s in the mix.

23. Connor Seabold, RHP: (three-pitch mix, none above avg) An oblique injury during 2019 Spring Training sidelined him until July. But once he returned to Double-A Reading on July 23, his 2.25 ERA through the rest of the season was fourth-best in the Eastern League. Then he struck out 22 batters and put up a 1.06 ERA in 17 AFL innings -- only to be left out of Major League camp this spring.

25. Deivy Grullon, C: The 24-year-old batted .283/.354/.496 with 21 homers and 24 doubles at Triple-A last year before spending his first month in the Majors in September.

NR. Cole Irvin, LHP: After debuting last May and making three starts, the remainder of the left-hander’s 16 Major League appearances in 2019 came in relief. Nine of them went longer than an inning. Currently on 28-man roster.

NR.
Connor Brogdon, RHP: Brogdon had a 37.6 percent strikeout rate in the Minors last season. Currently on 28-man roster.

NR.
Garrett Cleavinger, LHP: Cleavinger had a 36.4 percent strikeout rate in the Minors last season.

NR. Austin Listi, IF/OF: Listi, 26, split last season between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He hit 19 home runs in his 133 minor-league games last year, posting an OPS of .778. Defense is not exactly Listi’s calling card, but he has experience at multiple positions, seeing time at first base, third base, left field and right field in 2019.
 
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ElcaballitoMVP

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Move the bullpen guys for the best prospects you can get and see if teams will offer you anything of value for JBJ, Pillar and Moreland.

I think one area Bloom can find some undervalued pieces in the offseason is the bullpen, he did a pretty good job building a staff in Tampa, so I'm not worried about losing 2 or 3 of Barnes, Workman and Hembree.
 

Rovin Romine

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Serious question for the more well versed. Is the organization up to developing and "fixing" somewhat flawed pitchers? Especially younger ones?
 

jon abbey

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Since only players from the 60-man player pool are eligible to be traded this year, a lot of prospects from the lower rungs of organizations are off limits. I would think that makes it harder to pull off the "middling veteran for a lottery ticket" trade.
It’s not super clear, but there seem to be a couple ways around this. One is agreeing on someone and making them a PTBNL, another is that most teams seem to have open 60 man spots so they could add guys and then deal them.
 

curly2

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I hope they do just trade all of the relievers but man will this pitching staff be terrible to watch after they do that. Maybe they are just gonna call up Mata, Groome, etc?
I think, if they trade guys, Houck coming up is probable, Mata is possible but not likely, and Groome is not coming.

I hope, if they can stretch him out, they start Darwinzon Hernandez. Maybe -- probably -- he's not a starter, but this is the year to trot him out to see.
 

chrisfont9

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I hope they keep JBJ. Seems like having a base of homegrown players is a beneficial thing, both off the field and at key defensive positions. If JBJ's market were taking off, different story, but how hard would it be to re-sign him? And would you get anything worthwhile in return for half a season of him if you do trade him? I think he's worth more to the Sox than any other team. JD, Workman, see what you can get.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Phillies are 9-12. Why are they buying?
They're 1.5 games out of a playoff spot and only 3 games out in the division. As has been mentioned, they have a good offense but have lost a few close games late. Shoring up the pen is exactly what they need to be doing.
 

DaubachmanTurnerOD

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It's just speculation, but this Fangraphs article mentions Eovaldi as possibly being traded as well: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/first-to-worst-how-the-red-sox-went-from-2018-champions-to-2020-disaster/


Serious question for the more well versed. Is the organization up to developing and "fixing" somewhat flawed pitchers? Especially younger ones?
I think that is absolutely an open question, and I think the only way to conclude "yes" is to put a bunch of mostly-blind faith in the Bloom administration. The same Fangraphs article linked above notes that Brian Johnson is the only pitcher drafted by the Sox since 2007 to make more than 20 starts. It's a sign how bad things are that my main reaction to that fact was: "Brian Johnson made more than 20 starts?!"
 

Papo The Snow Tiger

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Gammons on MLB Network floated Vazquez may be getting shopped.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1296898078688116736
I don't get the rational in trading Vazquez. He won't be a free agent until 2023, and the only free agent catcher available worth even looking at is J.T. Realmuto, and I'm sure he'll be VERY expensive. IMHO Vazquez, Devers and Xander are the guys Bloom should be planning to build around
 

E5 Yaz

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I don't get the rational in trading Vazquez. He won't be a free agent until 2023, and the only free agent catcher available worth even looking at is J.T. Realmuto, and I'm sure he'll be VERY expensive. IMHO Vazquez, Devers and Xander are the guys Bloom should be planning to build around
The fact he's tied up for 3 more years is exactly what makes him valuable as a trade chip. If they're serious about rebuilding, they need to stockpiling assets and, outside of X (or, even more unlikely, Devers), there really isn't anyone who might bring as much back as Vasquez.

You can't "build around" those three, because you don't have much remaining to acquiring the building materials
 

Papo The Snow Tiger

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But who would catch next year? No matter what they're still going to have to play the games, and I don't see any really good near term choices available to replace Vazquez. I guess the next two weeks will tell how far away management thinks they are from being a legitimate contender.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Look what TB does with the catcher spot, some all glove, some all bat, constantly changing, etc. Guessing the Sox would be fine giving Realmuto a big (generally speaking, but not roster crippling) contract, going with James McCann-like for a year, or going bargain bin for a year.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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But who would catch next year? No matter what they're still going to have to play the games, and I don't see any really good near term choices available to replace Vazquez. I guess the next two weeks will tell how far away management thinks they are from being a legitimate contender.
Rumored trade partner Philadelphia has three major-league caliber catchers, Oakland has three major league-caliber catchers, Cincinnati has three major league-caliber catchers, and Arizona has at least three major league-caliber catchers if the Diamondbacks choose to employ Daulton Varsho behind the plate. A creative general manager has ample opportunity to find another catcher to pair with Plawecki.

Moreso, the concern should not be that the Red Sox lack a major league-ready catcher to immediately replace Vaz. The greater concern should be that the Red Sox lack major league-ready players to replace anyone in the near term. If trading Vaz returns value to address the latter concern, the Red Sox should not hesitate to do so.
 

The Mort Report

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If they are planning on dealing a guy like CV it won’t be at the deadline. As someone mentioned earlier, it appears they can only trade players from the 60. It will be in the off-season when there are more pieces available and time to acquire the right return. He same applies to X if that’s something they are thinking about. They are just too valuable
 

vadertime

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Since only players from the 60-man player pool are eligible to be traded this year, a lot of prospects from the lower rungs of organizations are off limits. I would think that makes it harder to pull off the "middling veteran for a lottery ticket" trade. Combined with the added randomness of a shorter season and larger playoffs (and uncertainty any of it gets completed), I don't think it's a good year to be a seller.
Couldn't they get around that by trading for a player to be named later? Like a post-waiver trade in other seasons.
 

YTF

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IMO the only time there was any possibility of seeing Realmuto in a Red Sox uniform was by way of a trade leading into last season when the Sox window was closing on the core that won in '18. With so many other areas of need Realmuto's not going to get a serious offer from Bloom and there is no reason for him to want to come to a team that is clearly rebuilding.