I'm curious if part of this gets either him or the Dodgers certainty about him opting out or not opting out for Covid related reasons...
Rosenthal: Mookie and LAD in agreement: 12/$365
- Thread starter cahlton
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Considering that Mookie has topped an ops+ of 135 only one time in his career (2018, with 186), I would think it a very very poor bet to expect him to put up 169 ops+ in those four seasons you outlined. Not counting his 218 at-bats in his first year, his ops+ numbers have been, in descending order:
186
135
133
117
108
I mean, still an excellent hitter, but nothing remotely like a 169 ops+.
Which is, I think, your point.
And mine as well.
From an OPS+ standpoint, Mookie is very similar to Nomar through 5-6 seasons.
This team is gonna be pretty mediocre this year, next year, and maybe the year after that, with or without Mookie Betts. We got what we could for him, thanks for the World Series win. Guess it kind of stings that if/when he makes the HoF, he will be wearing a Dodgers hat but this is the price we paid for 2018.
Yikes...can someone remind how it turned out for Boston after Nomar left again?
The sky fell and Boston didn't win a championship for 88 days I believe
I'm happy for Mookie to hit this payday. And while my little guy loves Mookie, he'll find another favourite, or he'll become a Dodgers fan...ugh
Nomar was also, in all likelihood, on the gas at one point, whereas Mookie has never had any of those concerns or been accused of doping. Small detail but important.
I wonder if LA would be making this deal if they weren't coming off back-to-back-to-back disappointments in their playoff runs (including the shocking loss to the team that won it all last year)? I wonder if they feel keeping Mookie on for 13 more seasons expands their playoff window a little longer than they believed it was going to last if he left after a few dozen games this season?
Yeah kind of similar to Durant to the Warriors, albeit with less impact. If the Dodgers already had a title or two under their belts I bet they would be content to just lock up their young stars.
Worth and cost are two different things. The numbers you're citing are what a WAR costs on the FA market. Whether the player is "worth" that or not is a different discussion and not quite as objective. Do I personally believe he'll be worth $35M a year for the first half of that? Yes. For 10 years? No. I don't think any player in the game outside of Trout I'd be comfortable with saying that about.
I’ve been pretty consistent in saying that, if I were the Red Sox this off-season, I would have offered Mookie 10/350 as a final offer, said farewell if he didn’t take that and tried to work out the cap some other way if he did take it. This pretty conclusively suggests he would have rejected such an offer, so, ultimately, I’m at peace with the fact that he left and happy with the return the Sox got.
The Dodgers are going to have to sell off a lot of young, close-to-FA talent in return for really young talent/prospects in the next year or two. And they'll likely have to let Kershaw walk after next season. They'll be an interesting team to follow.
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Can you point me towards this pic? I haven't seen it but assume it's in one of these threads?
I’m extremely happy for him and his family. I love when top players get paid in every sport. That being said I’m glad it’s not here. That’s a franchise killing contract if it goes bad after even 7 years.
Well, if you add in this deal for Mookie they're at $150M+ for nine players in 2021, with only Price, Pollock, Betts and Muncy under contract for 2022. They have a shit ton of arbitrations cases to take care of and a whole lot of holes to fill. Unless they completely disregard penalties - financial and draft picks - they can't really carry on too long like that and still keep Kershaw, Bellinger, Seager, Pederson, etc etc. Everyone can't make $20M+/yr average.
Theoretically, so are the Red Sox. But there are other factors in baseball economics than just how much money they have in the coffers. Luxury tax implications are real whether fans want to accept it or not.
Of course there's also the very real uncertainty of what the next CBA is going to look like. The contract is a huge risk no matter the player. Good for Mookie for getting paid, but it's going to have a big impact on what the Dodgers can/can't do going forward.
They can afford to disregard penalties if they choose to. I could see them trying to move Price, Pollock, Kershaw, and Pederson as they’re all past their prime/too expensive. I don’t see them dumping useful, young players as the post I responded to was suggesting.
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At some point Betts/Bellinger/Bueller will make 100 million between them annually. They will have to use the farm around and build around this core.
I don’t like that length or total money (but good for Mookie). And other than getting a slight discount on the AAV for lux tax purposes, it’s not clear to me that LA benefits from doing this now v waiting. Really, who out there is going to match this deal 3-5 months from now? If this season goes south, and if COVID hangs around - both serious possibilities - the financial landscape for MLB could drastically shift. There’s big risk here for LA beyond signing a 28 yo 5’9” guy for a dozen more years.
My point was it shouldn’t have a big impact on what they can do going forward. Just because Red Sox ownership decided to cheap out and trade the best player we’ve developed in decades doesn’t mean the Dodgers will do the same. They have plenty of young, cost controlled talent and a top tier development system led by a strong GM. This isn’t the same situation as a dinosaur like Dombrowski handing out stupid contracts to injury prone pitchers.
They can afford the financial ones, but the draft penalties and international caps are what will likely stop them; there's only so long you can not have the financial clout you're sacrificing to make an impact in the draft. There's also only so long investors are going to want to pay a 45% surcharge tax on every dollar they spend. If they choose to, yes you're absolutely correct, they can. It would be malpractice, but yes, they can. And if you're just moving contracts to make room, then they'll be eating money on those and not clearing space. It should be interesting to watch unfold though, it could go either way and they just signed up to be the guinea pigs.
This is entirely inaccurate, as has been drawn out here many times over. It's an emotional response that simply isn't accurate.
Yeah, one thing the past couple of years of following MLB have made clear to me is that it’s not really accurate to think of MLB like the old days when there truly was no limit to spending if you were a rich team. It’s now more appropriate to think of MLB as having what I’d call a very soft, variable cap - it’s not quite at an NBA-level of restriction but it’s extremely clear that no team, no matter how rich, is going to blow past the tax level year in, year out without periodically resetting. The challenge for the “rich” teams is determining when the right time for a reset is and when the right to go for it and splurge is.
I hope he's worth every penny of that contract...and then some
Might make this little guy worth a couple of shekels in the future
Might make this little guy worth a couple of shekels in the future
I just don't understand the rush on the Dodgers part. The landscape of baseball will be completely different with the very real possibility of a strike and big potential changes on how free agency is handled. I know they had boatloads of money to spend but this seems like they are bidding against themselves.
I really enjoyed having Mookie on the Sox and am absolutely thrilled they didn’t give him this contract.
Which, at the end of the day, is probably a good thing for MLB. Nobody wants to watch the richest teams win over and over and over again. Now is the time for us to reset and we just have to live with the economics of baseball. It is what it is, wish Mookie the best.
They are so desperate for a WS title that they just overpaid to keep Betts out of FA so his contract wouldn’t be an issue this year. You have to hand it to them—they are doing whatever it takes to win.
Maybe they would have. But Mookie wasn’t taking this a year ago, from the reports
The entire baseball landscape has changed dramatically the past six months.
Agreed, just interesting to consider the what ifs, they might have given him this a year ago but he wanted way more.
I get that part of it. It may also be them doubling down on a poor trade. But I think they will look pretty stupid if there isn't a full season until 2022.
Yeah he probably took a 15-20% discount on market value but he’s set for life.
One less team to take the Sox next bad contract.
Great deal for Mookie.
Good job by Chaim
Dodgers wtf
Great deal for Mookie.
Good job by Chaim
Dodgers wtf
I'm not going to grouse about the Sox not hanging onto him or the fact that they won't have a chance to resign him. I don't give a rat's ass as to whether or not the Dodgers overpaid or if they get screwed on the back end of the deal. Mookie was everything we could have hoped for and more. He was a pleasure to watch and a class act during his time in Boston. He put in his time, he got paid and I couldn't be happier for him. Thanks for the memories Mook!!!
I believe the following guys are up for FA in the next three years: Bellinger, Treinen, Pederson, Seagar, Hernandez, Taylor, Muncy, Stripling, Baez. Keeping all of those guys is going to be really tough, even if you let Turner, Pollock, and Kershaw go. But Friedman can work a lot of magic, so I guess we'll see.
I am a Red Sox fan not a Mookie or whomever ass kisser. The money he got will hamstring the Dodgers for years. Time to move on and just don't subject me to the Tom Caron BS of a nightly "how did Mookie do for the Dodgers last night". Its over and I'm looking forward.
Cody Bellinger just had a 9 bWAR MVP season as a 23 year old. I would be amazed if the dodgers have the payroll for another 13 year 400 million dollar deal when he hits FA. If anything they will be in the exact same situation we were in with Mookie this offseason.
Other than Bellinger, those are some replaceable players, especially when you’ve been as good at player development as the Dodgers have been despite not having a high draft pick for many years. Two of them were almost traded away this past February!
All the handwringing over the Dodgers crippling themselves with this deal seems kind of pointless to me. Presumably, the Dodgers know that the CBA is expiring, and they know the contractual status of their many good players. And yet, they chose to make this deal anyway. It’s kind of like when people do the same about the Yankees making a big deal; it never seems to really haunt them like we expect it to.
Per Rosenthal part of Mookie's deal is a $65M signing bonus, which will protect him in the event of lingering Covid issues or a strike/ lockout. Mookie is no dummy, and recognizes that circumstances, and uncertainties, have changed since he was negotiating with the Sox.
Rosentweet
Rosentweet
The Dodgers have a massive tv contract
The Dodgers play in a massive park and get massive ticket revenue
The Dodgers play in a massive market and get massive merchandising revenue
The Dodgers have a massively successful scouting department
The Dodgers fanbase has a massive pent-up demand for a WS title.
Until there is a hard cap, the Dodgers have no problem paying whatever it takes, including penalties, to get a winner.
I can see why they would do this. AAV isn't crazy (unless the sport contracts).
The Dodgers play in a massive park and get massive ticket revenue
The Dodgers play in a massive market and get massive merchandising revenue
The Dodgers have a massively successful scouting department
The Dodgers fanbase has a massive pent-up demand for a WS title.
Until there is a hard cap, the Dodgers have no problem paying whatever it takes, including penalties, to get a winner.
I can see why they would do this. AAV isn't crazy (unless the sport contracts).