SMU_Sox said:
True on DT. The question is going to be whether or not the value is there.
After Ra'Shede Hageman and Louis NIx III (who look to be top 15 picks come April), there's a big gap until the next guys.
The Altogether Appropriate NFL Draft Thread
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True on DT. The question is going to be whether or not the value is there.
After Ra'Shede Hageman and Louis NIx III (who look to be top 15 picks come April), there's a big gap until the next guys.
If Talib leaves, the position that opens up is #1 CB, which is a really hard position to fill through the draft. If they draft another Logan Ryan, I don't think it really helps them - he's unlikely to start over Dennard / Ryan / Arrington. What they need is a guy better than those guys, which is tough to do for a rookie, even a first-rounder - look at Dee Milliner and D.J. Hayden, the first two CBs selected this year. If they can't re-sign Talib, I'd rather see another veteran here than trying the draft route.SMU_Sox said:
I could see using a late-rounder on a Marquice Cole replacement (fast special teams player) or a late-rounder with warts (like Dennard) or a project (like Marcus Cooper), but using a high pick on a DB doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
Oh, I agree - I just mean that we don't know how the coaching staff views Collins, and BB and co are going to evaluate their needs differently depending on how they see his future (and his progress). If they think they can groom him into a coverage LB, it probably doesn't make sense to use another high pick on one. On the other hand, if they see him eventually bulking up and being an every-down pass rusher, DE becomes less of a need but we might still need a coverage 'backer.SMU_Sox said:
Some other young guys that might figure into the draft analysis:
- Chris Jones, Vellano, Siliga - obviously they're a bit overmatched now, but how does the staff see them developing? Personally, I would draft two interior DL guys (one an NT-type, one a 3-tech), but they may feel one of these guys is capable of filling one of those roles
- Chris Barker, Josh Kline, Braxston Cave - how close is one of these guys to taking a C/G role?
- Buchanan - can he be the extra rusher in sub D?
- Harmon - Gregory's under contract for one more year - can Harmon fill in after that
- Dobson, Thompkins, Boyce - I'm assuming they're cool with the progress these rookies are making, but maybe they want to take another spin at the WR wheel
Young guys on IR that could factor in - DTs Armond Armstead and Cory Grissom, OT Markus Zusevics (does he fill the tackle depth role), WRs T.J. Moe and Mark Harrison
One more potential need: Gostkowski's cap number is $3.8 MM next year. He shows no signs of slowing down (and at 29, he's got a lot of career ahead of him), but if they can't work out an extension I wouldn't be surprised to see some competition in camp a la Ryan Allen this year.
I've been viewing OT depth as a strength (Vollmer, Cannon, Svitek, even Zusevics and a couple guys on PS), but with Solder's fourth concussion and second in a week, it's worth asking if he's approaching Mike Wright territory.
Super Nomario said:
Ooof. With Vollmer's back and other nagging injuries, 4 pillars of offense that should in prime may be in jeopardy: Herb, Gronk, Vollmer, and Solder.
Maybe a Mankins 2.0 pick makes sense. Mankins played LT at Fresno State (and has at times in the NFL) but was an immediate starter at G in the NFL level. Just a quick perusal of OT prospects who fit this profile are LSU's La'el Collins, Texas A&M's Cedric Ogbuehi, and Nevada's Joel Bitonio. Collins and Ogbuehi both started their college careers inside, and Bitonio is a near-Mankins-doppleganger in size (6'4" ~310) and experience (three-year starters in the WAC). A day one starter at RG and someone who could ultimately shift to LT, LG, or RT depending on how the contracts and injuries shake out.SeoulSoxFan said:
EDIT: Notre Dame's Zack Martin and Stanford's David Yankey also fall in this bucket. Vanderbilt's Wesley Johnson is a potential option in a later round, and he has experience at C, too.
It's not a top need, but I keep looking at Allen Robinson (WR, Penn State) and wondering if they can afford to pass on him. He's not only really good, but also plays in the same exact offense under Bill O'Brien. I think he'd be a legitimate ROY candidate and number one WR here. He reminds me of Keenan Allen, but without the knee problems and questions about picking up the offense.
I like the way you're thinking.
Super Nomario said:
I like the way you're thinking.
This is probably the last thing that folks want to hear but the more that I look at this draft, the more it seems like a good candidate for a trade-down scenario. If Nix is gone, which seems likely, I'm not sure any other DT/NT represents good value at the end of the first (Hagemon looks like a 3-4 DE to me, not a NT) but there are some interesting names to take a flyer on in rounds 2-4. The same might be said about Amaro and Ebron at the TE position, although some would argue ASJ. And there also don't seem to be any really standout interior OL prospects of the Cooper/Warmack/DeCastro/Pouncey variety, but there are a bunch of guys who might be good value in the second or third rounds (like some of those SN listed).
I think if a team offered us the Vikings deal from last year (2/3/4/7 for our first) I would probably pounce on it. See if we can accumulate six picks in rounds 2-4 and then add two OL, a developmental DT, a TE prospect (I'd love to take a shot on Lyerla, Weedz situation or not), another CB, and a versatile LB.
I think if a team offered us the Vikings deal from last year (2/3/4/7 for our first) I would probably pounce on it. See if we can accumulate six picks in rounds 2-4 and then add two OL, a developmental DT, a TE prospect (I'd love to take a shot on Lyerla, Weedz situation or not), another CB, and a versatile LB.
And, after getting caught and agreeing to let the cops search his apartment (to which they would drive separately), he tried to outrace them there in order to hide some other shit. Genius move!Freddy Linn said:
I wouldn't consider picking him before the 4th and maybe not even then. But I'm cynical enough to believe that there are very few choir boys in the NFL and the talent is rare enough that I don't mind taking a shot, especially if we have extra picks.
He's also the guy who was tweeting about the Sandy Hook elementary conspiracy theories. The guy has repeatedly shown bad judgment. The drug charge is just the latest. He's a ticking time bomb. Pass. This guy has way too many character issues.
Come on, what's the worse that can happen when you draft a talented TE with some shady questions marks in his past?SMU_Sox said:
As Admiral Josh Painter said in the hunt for Red October...( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
Admiral Josh Painter: This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it.
OL needs to be a focus. TE and DL as the next needs.....LB and Offense as Dev guys.
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
If all the right players are gone and they can get good value, then I'm for it, but I'd rather trade up. This year there are about 25 prospects that would normally be top 15 picks. I want one of those guys.
ASJ received a second round grade from the NFL Draft advisory. It doesn't mean anything for sure, but they might be able to trade out of the first and still get ASJ if that's the guy they want.
Can I make this claim now? I predict that ASJ will be the greatest (part) Armenian NFL player ever. And yes, there are a handful of Armenian Americans to play the game. Rien Long being the latest... and he last played in 2007 for the Titans. He had at least one Armenian inspired tattoo (the Armenian flag on his upper arm). The S is Armenian: Seferian.
What excites me about a guy like ASJ is the size mismatch he generates. Imagine him and Gronk on the same field at once.
I think it's fair to say that any of the three main tight ends (Jace Amaro, Eric Ebron, and ASJ) would be a huge boon for the offense. But if you want the full package and someone who can block with explosiveness you have to look at Jace Amaro and ASJ. Both of those guys are ferocious blockers although ASJ really came into that this year and went from good to could be great. If you told me 2 or all 3 of these guys would make 2 pro bowls each in their NFL careers I wouldn't blink. We have some really top heavy but impressive TE talent here.
I think it's fair to say that any of the three main tight ends (Jace Amaro, Eric Ebron, and ASJ) would be a huge boon for the offense. But if you want the full package and someone who can block with explosiveness you have to look at Jace Amaro and ASJ. Both of those guys are ferocious blockers although ASJ really came into that this year and went from good to could be great. If you told me 2 or all 3 of these guys would make 2 pro bowls each in their NFL careers I wouldn't blink. We have some really top heavy but impressive TE talent here.
It's not a top need, but I keep looking at Allen Robinson (WR, Penn State) and wondering if they can afford to pass on him. He's not only really good, but also plays in the same exact offense under Bill O'Brien. I think he'd be a legitimate ROY candidate and number one WR here. He reminds me of Keenan Allen, but without the knee problems and questions about picking up the offense.
I like the way you're thinking.
Completely agree with your assessment here , I love Allen Robinson. I saw a lot if his games last year and was really amazing at his ability to make plays in a offense void of any other real playmakers. He's a guy I'd love the a Lions to take a look at, as a compliment to Megatron.
I like the way you're thinking.
Completely agree with your assessment here , I love Allen Robinson. I saw a lot if his games last year and was really amazing at his ability to make plays in a offense void of any other real playmakers. He's a guy I'd love the a Lions to take a look at, as a compliment to Megatron.
You think with a last name like Limberakis I wouldn't know Garo? A Cyrpriot Armenian! My friend you must say that in jest! But as good as a kicker he was I think ASJ as tight end, a slightly more important position, has a higher ceiling. That and I'm in the mood to make bold predictions 
1. Houston Texans - 2-14 (.559)
2. St. Louis Rams (via Washington Redskins) - 3-13 (.516)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - 4-12 (.504)
4. Cleveland Browns - 4-12 (.516)
5. Oakland Raiders - 4-12 (.523)
6. Atlanta Falcons - 4-12 (.553)
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 4-12 (.574)
8. Minnesota Vikings - 5-10-1 (.512)
9. Buffalo Bills - 6-10 (.520)
10. Detroit Lions - 7-9 (.457)
11. Tennessee Titans - 7-9 (.504)
12. New York Giants - 7-9 (.520)
13. St. Louis Rams - 7-9 (.551)
14. Chicago Bears - 8-8 (.465)
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - 8-8 (.469)
16 or 17. Baltimore Ravens - 8-8 (.484)
16 or 17. Dallas Cowboys - 8-8 (.484)
18. New York Jets - 8-8 (.488)
19. Miami Dolphins - 8-8 (.523)
20. Arizona Cardinals - 10-5 (.529)
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/12/29/5254286/2014-nfl-draft-order-houston-texans-secure-no-1-pick
2. St. Louis Rams (via Washington Redskins) - 3-13 (.516)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - 4-12 (.504)
4. Cleveland Browns - 4-12 (.516)
5. Oakland Raiders - 4-12 (.523)
6. Atlanta Falcons - 4-12 (.553)
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 4-12 (.574)
8. Minnesota Vikings - 5-10-1 (.512)
9. Buffalo Bills - 6-10 (.520)
10. Detroit Lions - 7-9 (.457)
11. Tennessee Titans - 7-9 (.504)
12. New York Giants - 7-9 (.520)
13. St. Louis Rams - 7-9 (.551)
14. Chicago Bears - 8-8 (.465)
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - 8-8 (.469)
16 or 17. Baltimore Ravens - 8-8 (.484)
16 or 17. Dallas Cowboys - 8-8 (.484)
18. New York Jets - 8-8 (.488)
19. Miami Dolphins - 8-8 (.523)
20. Arizona Cardinals - 10-5 (.529)
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/12/29/5254286/2014-nfl-draft-order-houston-texans-secure-no-1-pick
Damn, had I know the Armenian twist this thread had taken, I would have been here sooner. The Armenian community in Boston would LOVE ASJ. Would be fun to watch, but I'm not sure I like him more than Ebron. ASJ seems a bit lankier to me, and given the injuries we've seen, I worry a lot about that type of frame holding up in today's NFL.
BigSoxFan said:
I don't think you can judge the trade yet, not until St. Louis uses the picks. Maybe they squander the picks, maybe they use one of them on the right QB that becomes a franchise cornerstone.
"Ton of picks" is subjective, but:moly99 said:
- Atlanta traded the #5 pick, a 3rd, a future 2nd, and Tim Dwight for the #1 pick (Vick)
- The Giants traded Rivers (#4 pick), a 3rd, and two future 5ths for Eli (#1 pick)
- Atlanta traded the #27 pick, a 2nd, a 4th, a future 1st and 4th for the #6 pick (Julio Jones)
- The Rams traded the #6 pick, a 3rd, 4th, and a 7th to the Jets for the #1 pick (Orlando Pace)
These are all at least debatable, and the Vick and Pace trades look pretty good.
I'm a fan of MyNFLDraft.com to gauge how player stocks are rising/falling. It's updated regularly and free. They also track the draft for the three other major sports.
Four teams in the Top 5 need QBs and five if you include STL. Plus, you've got Minnesota at #8 and Tennessee at #11. I think at least four QBs drafted in the top 10 is basically a lock at this point, with Bridgewater, Bortles, Carr, and Manziel looking like the most likely guys. Bortles has enjoyed a huge amount of helium the past month and some people are even talking him up as a dark horse contender for #1 overall. So I think St Louis is likely going to be in the catbird's seat, as it seems likely that at least one team falls in love with either Bortles or Bridgewater and offers them another king's ransom. Or they could take one of those guys themselves. Or they could say fuck it, draft Clowney, and potentially have one of the best pair of 4-3 DEs in NFL history. That's a good problem to have.Turrable said:
If any of you stay up late you can watch ASU-TT and see Jace Amaro, TE.
Here is Matt Waldman's eval on him.
I've seen him anywhere from middle of the 1st round to as low as a 4th rounder. Most places have him as a 3rd round or better grade. Some disagreement as to his blocking prowess.
Here is Matt Waldman's eval on him.
I've seen him anywhere from middle of the 1st round to as low as a 4th rounder. Most places have him as a 3rd round or better grade. Some disagreement as to his blocking prowess.
BigSoxFan said:
25 & under QB's w/ passer rating 80+:
NFC
------------------------------
Nick Foles (119.2)
Russell Wilson (101.2)
Cam Newton (88.8)
Matt Stafford (84.2)
Mike Glennon (83.9)
Robert Griffin III (82.2)
AFC
------------------------------
Andrew Luck (87.0)
Ryan Tannehill (81.7)
I wonder how much of this is coaching and supporting cast. It's notable that all the good dual threat QB's are in the NFC. Maybe the NFC organizations are more willing to experiment and adapt?
At least Bridgewater to the Texans should help even things out a bit.
SMU_Sox said:
Would you worry about him picking up the Patriots offense? There are the mental mistakes, and UNC players aren't usually known as the most astute.
SMU_Sox said:
The only thing is that both Amaro and ASJ have had DUIs. Could they be too risky in the first round?
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I want to see this, but it won't ahppen. Long is a fan favorite, team leader, and just signed a big extension.
koufax32 said:
I don't think Bridgewater and Clowney are far better than the other top guys. They both have serious question marks.
The character issues always worry me my friend. DUIs represent a serious judgment problem. I'm not trying to be holier than thou but it's a red flag. That being said I know a few people I would go to the trenches with and absolutely want on my side who have had a DUI. It's the least worrisome of potential trouble to me. Illegal drug offenses and violent offenses are a bigger red flag to me. YMMV.
Re: Ebron. Let me think about that.
Re: Ebron. Let me think about that.
SMU_Sox said:
Yeah and people can change too. I just think that in the first round you should be able to get a good player without character flaws. However I also think that a bunch of prospects have done equally bad things that we don't know about.
The interview process is a huge part of the equation.
I don't think the Giants' trade was debatable-it was a slam dunk win for them, even if Eli never plays another down in the NFL.Super Nomario said:
Josh Norris mocks Pitt DL Aaron Donald to the Pats, noting his "consistent interior disruption." I guess it comes down to how much they like Jones and Vellano (and Armond Armstead, if he plays).
Was (Not Wasdin) said:
I disagree. I think I might take Rivers's career straight up over Eli. It'd certainly be worth a debate and that's despite the extra picks that SD picked up.
Career Stats:
Eli
85 - 66, 58.5% completion rate, 229-171 TD-INT, 7.1 Y/A, 81.2 QB Rating, 2 Rings
Rivers
79-49, 64.4% Completion rate, 221-104 TD-INT, 7.9 Y/A, 96 QB Rating,
Eli certainly has had more postseason success, but both Super Bowls were on the back of his defenses. (though he was excellent in the 2011 SB)
Yeah, I think you're right. And if they're looking at going with a 3-4, he's probably shorter than they like their 3-4 ends (Warren and Seymour were both 6'6+). He is pretty similar to Vellano (6'1", 300) and Jones (6'2", 302) so it's possible they've changed their thinking about size needs. Then again, they got both those guys for nothing.phragle said:
Here's another mock, where Cyril Richardson goes to the Pats:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/12/30/5255782/2014-nfl-mock-draft-jadeveon-clowney-johnny-manziel-bridgewater
FWIW (likely nothing!), both of the 2 recently posted mocks have Ebron to the NYJ.
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/12/30/5255782/2014-nfl-mock-draft-jadeveon-clowney-johnny-manziel-bridgewater
FWIW (likely nothing!), both of the 2 recently posted mocks have Ebron to the NYJ.
I could see them going OG, but they tend to like smaller, quicker interior guys.RoyHobbs said: