Howell had one terrible game vs. Bills, one meh game vs. AZ who are better than people first thought and two great games vs. PHI and DEN.
This is one reason why I wouldn’t even necessarily use the word “bust”. If the odds are greater than 50% that it won’t work out, then if it doesn’t work out that’s actually the EXPECTED outcome. It’s not what you HOPE for, but it’s what you’re expect. But because you need a QB you take the chance anyway.
Small sample size and one horrible game vs. BUF that got away from him very similar to Mac's last game.
It’s also a “reality” that is completely out of whack with how you posted about him his rookie year.
I do not think he is that, but he is likely in the bottom third of starting QB at this point in his career and trending seemingly downward. Barring his mechanics/footwork/decision-making getting better he is likely someone who settles in as a fringe starter/good backup. Not the worst, but not what we needed.
I had high hopes for him when they drafted him, and I thought he had a terrific rookie year. That doesn't change the fact that when they drafted him, the odds were greater than 50% (based on past data) that he wouldn't really pan out. I'm not being inconsistent at all.
I was excited about the pick because I thought he had a chance to be good. That's all taken into consideration knowing that it's still going against the odds though. If you could point me to a post of mine where I thought he'd be some sort of slam dunk terrific player, that would be great, because I sure don't remember saying anything like that.
Expectations and hopes are different. We had this exact same discussion about Mayer on the main board. I was basically told that if Mayer ends up contributing to the big club the pick was more or less a good pick.
I didn’t say that you did. But you were comparing him favorably to Joe Burrow his rookie season, projecting solid improvement his second season that has not come to fruition, and talking about all the throws that he could make that most other QBs couldn’t.
It’s data mining for apologetics not data analysis for discovery. Sometimes the data is interesting in spite of this.
Ahhh, that Stephen Drew comp will live in infamy.
Yeah I don’t think anyone would argue this, especially how the first ~13 games of his career wentAhhh, that Stephen Drew comp will live in infamy.
Seriously though, while I'm not interested in debating the precise definition of the word "bust", I do think it was fair to expect that a QB drafted 15th overall and was handed the starting job earlier than any Patriots QB since Jim Plunkett, would be better than this in his 3rd season. He was OK, at best, in his first three games. And then gawd-freakin-awful in game 4. The team simply needs more from him, and it's looking like he may not be up to that task.
"Bust" or not, it's pretty disappointing. And contending that we should have expected disappointment is kinda silly, IMHO.
Yes, I thought Mac did well his rookie year and thought he would improve. So far it looks like I was wrong about that.
No, I never talked about "all the throws that he (Mac) could make that most other QBs couldn't". I did not talk about that. I said he threw a nice ball and I wasn't worried about his arm strength and thought he did a good job "throwing guys open".
I mean no offense by this (truly...I never intend to offend anyone here), but I couldn't care less how it "seems" to you. I'm doing my best to call things as I see them. And again, as I mentioned in a previous post, there's a lot of criticism of the way I'm trying to analyze this (which is fine) but I see precious few people putting in any kind of effort to actually research and quantify this stuff. It's kind of like the parents in the stands at a little league game criticizing the coach. That's fine, but you don't actually see them volunteering to help either.
In my case, this is completely false. I've been surprised at some of the data I've found and I've tried to present it all fairly. Again, if you (anyone, not just you personally) would like to do the work yourself and present what you find, I'd love to see it.
Howell's first two games were good, but the last two have been really rough. The Bills game in particular, he did a lot of things that the board has been roasting Mac for-throwing off his back foot, floating balls, throwing into coverage. He's doing bad QB things just like Mac.
Was Howell's last game "really rough"? I was driving on Sunday and listened to the Eagles-Commanders game (didn't actually SEE it), but it seemed like (on the radio anyway) that he was doing a good job and helped his team score 31 points against Philly, including a great last drive to get them to tie the game. His game stats were really good: 29-41 (70.7%), 290 yds, 7.1 y/a, 1 td, 0 int.
Seconded. If Rivera hadn't lost his balls and gone for two after the TD on the last play in regulation, the kid likely would have led a huge upset.
I like the vibe of this post. On the bust debate, I think we each have our own definitions to a certain extent so it's a bit of a moving target...Ahhh, that Stephen Drew comp will live in infamy.
Seriously though, while I'm not interested in debating the precise definition of the word "bust", I do think it was fair to expect that a QB drafted 15th overall and was handed the starting job earlier than any Patriots QB since Jim Plunkett, would be better than this in his 3rd season. He was OK, at best, in his first three games. And then gawd-freakin-awful in game 4. The team simply needs more from him, and it's looking like he may not be up to that task.
"Bust" or not, it's pretty disappointing. And contending that we should have expected disappointment is kinda silly, IMHO.
That said, for me, if the "bust to hit ratio is very high", or "most of them are busts," the word 'bust' doesnt have much meaning. I reserve that word for Ryan Leaf/Jamarcus Russell/etc. Jeff George is a great test case - Im sure he's on a lot of bust lists. But the dude had an 11 year nfl career and started 124 games, and his wAV (yes yes I know a bit of an absurd metric) ranks 12th in that draft class. So back to Mac, he's been a disappointment so far, but not a bust.
Yeah. This is well put.
Fair. What data would you find more interesting? In the "Drafting a QB" thread I just compared Mac to QB drafted slots 11-20 from 2000-2018 using wAV as a metric. Would you prefer passing stats themselves? What would make it "interesting"?
I share you opinion on what a bust is but others don’t and arguing over that is pointless. If we’re debating who is good or bad at personnel in organizations, we need to look at who was available close to when the pick was made. If we are talking about if a player is good or not in year 3, the number they were drafted at is irrelevant assuming we have seen them play.
Why does draft status matter at this point for Mac? What are we evaluating that can influence a future action? The way you’re phrasing your questions comes across as a Mac apologist. And it’s fine, btw, to support Mac, there are so many interdependent things in football that it is hard to know how good someone could be in different situations. I’m just not on board with your approach.
He's 20th in the league in EPA/Play, 19th in QBR. Don't love early season ANY/A, a couple of plays can skew it greatly. He's been okay overall, with a couple of encouraging games there.
In fairness, while Jones bloom came off the proverbial rose quickly for me last year, I was excited by the pick. We got one of the "good" QB prospects and while I wanted Fields a bit more I was still so happy we didnt trade up to get either. It seemed like BB was playing chess in holding fast there. His first year was pretty solid, even if it was obvious they did not trust him to do too much and brought him along slowly. I think it is entirely possible to have been excited by the pick, then lose faith at varying degrees of speed over time.
I think passing stats are more useful, yes. I think everyone understands that every QB has a different set of circumstances to work with as far as receivers, line, coaching, etc. But that is still a more granular look at what a QB is physically doing than stuff like team record, ten win seasons and PB appearances.
If folks think Mac doesn't make quick enough decisions, and/or holds the ball too long, well Sam Howell would be driving folks completely fucking insane around here.
Never said Howell was lighting the world on fire just said he is better than Zappe who was picked 4 picks ahead of him and that I would bet he will end the season ahead of Mac in QBR and wins. Worth noting that Howell is also the same age (23) as Penix Jr. and Bo Nix. He is still in his developmental phase as a QB.
A totally fair post. Just by way of explanation, the whole reason I got into this particular discussion was because a poster (or more) was labeling Mac a "bust", and while we can certainly dislike even talking about it in terms of a "bust" it got me thinking, and when thinking about THAT, draft position definitely matters. You draft a guy like Trevor Lawrence #1 overall, and you definitely have reason to expect that he will have a really good career. In the group of QB I studied (from 2000-2018), most of the guys drafted #1 overall turned out to be at least pretty good. Very few of them turned out to be disasters. But you move down to 15 (or lower) and you're now looking at much longer odds of that QB turning out to be pretty good or better. There's a reason why the draft value chart in some form still exists, and why the #1 overall pick is worth SO much more than the #15 pick. The most recent chart I saw valued the #1 pick at 3,000 "points" and the #15 pick at 1,050 points - basically worth a THIRD of what the #1 pick is worth.
Why is throwing the ball away a bad thing? Brady was the king of throwing the ball away when no one was open. I wish Mac would do it more. Play for another down, instead of turning the ball over.
These discussions tend to get testy because people are looking at it from different points of view. The day after Mayer was drafted, it is very fair to say that if he contributes to the big club that it was a good pick.
Going into that draft, a TON of people thought that the 49ers traded up to take Mac Jones. It was incredibly unlikely that he was going to fall to 15...once he did, I think it was pretty much a slam dunk pick.
This is a good point, and I completely agree. I think the only scenarios under which you could criticize drafting him would be A) if the Pats had traded up and used up extra draft capital or B) if Parsons was still on the board and they passed. Because I think everyone knew Parsons would be a beast.
Well, he has less turnovers than Sam Howell does, and he's kept plays alive long enough to get 23 more pass attempts off on called passing plays (while under more pressure than Howell) than Howell has.
This whole Howell conversation reminds me of listening to my brother talk up Taylor Heinicke for two seasons. Must be something about diminutive Washington QBs that makes people think that they're much better than they are.
I'm really not even trying to shit on Sam Howell. I actually think he's pretty good, but he's going through growing pains like every young QB does. I'd probably move Mac straight up for him, but it's not a given that he'd any better and there's a very good chance he'd be even worse. We'll find out eventually.
Let me just be kind of an asshole real quick here:
The footwork piece is really troubling. Even in in last week’s breakdown where he was really high on Mac he knocked his footwork. This seems fixable but you have to think the Pats coaching has been on Mac for this for years and it’s not getting better.
I mean, you had to know to a moral certainty that I actually looked at your posts, right?
Do you want to quibble about whether my characterization of this post was fair?
So, this is basically the refuge of everyone who makes outcome-motivated “data” driven arguments on the board. What other people are doing has absolutely nothing to do with what you’re doing. Nobody needs to quantify anything to point out an issue in your analysis.
Totally. No issues with that at all.
I'd say mostly fair. I didn't say "all the throws that he (Mac) could make that most other QBs couldn't". From that quote I said, "there are throws he makes that I don't see many others making". And it's true - I didn't see many others making some of those throws. But of course, I don't watch every QB. But it's a small difference - though as a lawyer, those small differences can, uh, make all the difference sometimes, right?
You can say that, but we all know it's much easier to sit there on the couch and criticize the guy doing the job than it is to go out and do the job yourself. The criticisms of my thought process are fair - as I've noted several times - but it does matter if all others do is criticize without actually doing the work themselves.
Well, to be fair, I'm liking him less and less. If you've been reading my posts in this forum lately, you may have noticed that I have actually recently expressed a lessened confidence in him, and have advocated that they keep him for next year and in this year's draft go after another QB in the first round. Maybe you've missed that. In THIS particular discussion, all I was originally responding to was the claim that Mac was a "bust" (not my word...someone else's) and I thought that was an unfair tag to put on Mac.
Yeah I think it sometimes get forgotten how many mock drafts had Mac in the top 3 with 49ers taking him. It's not surprising either given the discourse in this thread talking about how Mac would probably be pretty successful in a 49ers system with that O-line, running game, and WR/TE talent.
Yeah, but those were all based on hearsay. People were mocking Mac at 3 because there was this rumor that Shanahan loved Mac and would pick him at 3, so the mocks had him there due to that, but very few people thought he was worth the 3rd overall pick. "I can't imagine they would have moved up to 3 for Mac Jones, it would make no sense" was the prevalent line of thinking at the time, but the chatter was so strong guys still operated under that assumption.
So only mods can make these types of requests? We're not allowed to self-police at all?
