The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread
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Tom Brady 2.0 baby!
Haven't watched Brock at all, but Mac's mechanics have not gotten better in 3 years, so I think he still has a ceiling. He definitely would not be on the verge of being called a bust though.
Mac for sure can't be considered a bust. He's a 3-year starter in the NFL, with a playoff appearance, a 10-win season, and a pro bowl appearance under his belt.
From 2014-2022, here's all the 1st round QBs taken:
2014
#3 - Blake Bortles (0 PB, 24-49 record, 1 ten win season)
#22 - Johnny Manziel (0 PB, 2-6 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#32 - Teddy Bridgewater (1 PB, 33-32 record, 1 ten win season)
2015
#1 - Jameis Winston (1 PB, 34-46 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#2 - Marcus Mariota (0 PB, 34-40 record, 0 ten win seasons)
2016
#1 - Jared Goff (3 PB, 57-46-1 record, 2 ten win seasons, 1 SB appearance)
#2 - Carson Wentz (1 PB, 46-45-1 record, 1 ten win season, 1 SB appearance)
#26 - Paxton Lynch (0 PB, 1-3 record, 0 ten win seasons)
2017
#2 - Mitch Trubisky (1 PB, 31-24 record, 1 ten win season)
#10 - Patrick Mahomes (5 PB, 67-17 record, 5 ten win seasons, 2 SB titles, 3 SB appearances, 2 MVP)
#12 - Deshaun Watson (3 PB, 33-29 record, 2 ten win seasons)
2018
#1 - Baker Mayfield (0 PB, 34-39 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#2 - Sam Darnold (0 PB, 21-34 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#7 - Josh Allen (2 PB, 55-25 record, 4 ten win seasons)
#10 - Josh Rosen (0 PB, 3-13 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#32 - Lamar Jackson (2 PB, 48-17 record, 2 ten win seasons, 1 MVP)
2019
#1 - Kyler Murray (2 PB, 25-31 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#6 - Daniel Jones (0 PB, 22-34-1 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#15 - Dwayne Haskins (0 PB, 3-10 record, 0 ten win seasons)
2020
#1 - Joe Burrow (1 PB, 25-20-1 record, 2 ten win seasons, 1 SB appearance)
#5 - Tua Tagoviola (0 PB, 24-14 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#6 - Justin Herbert (1 PB, 27-26 record, 1 ten win season)
#26 - Jordan Love (0 PB, 2-3 record, 0 ten win seasons)
2021
#1 - Trevor Lawrence (1 PB, 14-24 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#2 - Zach Wilson (0 PB, 8-17 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#3 - Trey Lance (0 PB, 2-2 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#11 - Justin Fields (0 PB, 5-24 record, 0 ten win seasons)
#15 - Mac Jones (1 PB, 17-18 record, 1 ten win season)
Putting these guys in tiers...
Gold Standard - Mahomes
Studs - Allen, Burrow, Jackson
Quality QBs - Murray, Tua, Herbert, Lawrence, Watson, Goff
Pretty decent - Bortles, Winston, Mac, Mayfield, Wentz
Meh - D Jones, Bridgewater, Trubisky, Love (TBD), Mariota
Busts - Manziel, Lynch, Darnold, Rosen, Haskins, Wilson, Lance, Fields
And how are we so sure that Lance and Fields are busts when they've landed in situations more problematic than Mac's? A ten-win season with a training-wheels offense and an alternate selection to the pro bowl are pretty weak sauce when trying to establish him as "pretty decent."
Three seasons without improvement in mechanics pretty much defines "ceiling," doesn't it?
"We" (i.e., BJ) are not "so sure" about any of those rankings other than a handful of obvious guys. It's just how I would place them right now. YMMV of course. The point behind me putting all that info out there was, really, to show that in no way should Mac be considered a "bust".
I'd put both Bortles and Mac in the "Meh" category and propose that a minimum qualification for attaining the "Pretty Decent" tier be that the QB needs to be a QB1 on his second contract. Bortles had a pretty decent 3-year run from 2015-17 -- avg season 26 TD, 16 INT, 4,007 yards -- but wasn't able to maintain QB1 status for the remainder of his career.
Bortles was a big, raw athlete in the Josh Allen mold, a touch slower (4.81 vs 4.76), with similarly questionable mechanics and a slightly less good arm. Still, was surprised he never really made it.
Edit: More thoughtz.
Bortles was a big, raw athlete in the Josh Allen mold, a touch slower (4.81 vs 4.76), with similarly questionable mechanics and a slightly less good arm. Still, was surprised he never really made it.
Edit: More thoughtz.
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Using 10 win seasons for guys isn't telling you much of anything at the best of times (wins aren't a QB stat) but even more so when comparing a guy who has played 17 game seasons with guys who mostly played 16 game seasons.
Lance landed in about the most ideal spot for any rookie QB. The team was coming off a recent Super Bowl trip and had a loaded roster. He just couldn't stay healthy and was beaten out for the job by a 7th round draft pick that just fits what the coach wants.
The JT O'Sullivan breakdown of the game is brutal. Mac was completely out of sorts. Passing over open receivers constantly, speeding up reads, reacting to invisible pressure, falling off throws for no reason, somehow an even bigger mess than it looked like in real time.
Sure. Use your own standards. The whole point of that exercise was to show that Mac - for all his flaws - absolutely cannot be considered a “bust”.
I know what you mean, but these two sentences are contradictory. He wasn't in the most ideal spot if a Purdy/Mac style QB was a better fit for what the coach wanted.
So much of having a chance at being a successful NFL quarterback depends on where you wind up in the draft. If the 9ers did take Mac, behind a better line with more weapons and without a defensive coordinator thrown in to run the offense, he still might not be great ... but he'd have a better chance to be successful
I get that Lance may have not been the best fit there (to reach his full potential), but I still think landed on a SB contender with both offensive and defensive talent is pretty close to ideal for a young quarterback.
Are we really giving Mac Jones for making the pro bowl? Like 20 QB’s made the pro bowl that year
You draft a QB with the 15th pick, you expect him to lead your franchise. I don't care how many have been picked before him and have a worse record or less PBs than your guy. You pick him to be THE guy. If he doesn't turn into that, then it is a bust. QBs (rightfully or wrongly) are held to a different standard.
Could not disagree more, and I’m far from a Mac apologist. He’s been ok, no more, no less. Was he a worse pick than Wynn? Michel? Harry? Malcom Brown? He has provided decent value relative to the pick.
It’s crazy to call him a bust. I don’t care what metric you guys all want to use if you don’t like what I offered. (I notice that nobody has bothered to put in any effort…) By no reasonable measure has Mac been a bust. He hasn’t been great but a bust? No way.
*In another post I went through every first round QB drafted in the NFL since like 2001 and the hit rate is pretty low. Like the majority of first round QBs drafted turn out to be not good at all.
*In another post I went through every first round QB drafted in the NFL since like 2001 and the hit rate is pretty low. Like the majority of first round QBs drafted turn out to be not good at all.
I said QBs are held to a different standard. When you draft a QB in with the 15th pick, what are your expectations? If they then draft another QB with a high (1st-2nd) pick after 3 years, that isn't good...at all. I didn't say he IS a bust. If he isn't the guy after 3-4 years, he was a QB bust.
The bust debate is sort of irrelevant and is something that can bog down discussion. Mac is not playing well right now and what matters is if he should be kept after this year to start.
Yeah - things we knew - his arm is week, his footwork was awful, there were open guys, etc. Just terrible to see watching after the fact. He could not have been much worse in this game.
This is exactly right. The only interesting and relevant question is whether Mac should be the guy next year and beyond. I don’t think he should be, for reasons I and others have expressed. Historical comparisons to other first round QB picks seem designed to try and argue that BB won’t have a “bust” on his record. If Mac needs to be moved on from after 3 years, it was an unsuccessful pick. If, we can all at least agree that the goal of drafting a Qb in round 1 is, at minimum, to get him to a second contract, and for him be an effective starter for 5 or more years.
If you draft a QB with the 15th pick and he QBs the team to the No. 6 offense in his rookie season, then collapses after a disastrous coaching change in the second season, you don't call him a bust until you get through the third season with his third offensive coordinator
I kind of think a QB who falls to 15 is not one as to whom you should have very high expectations. My hope when Mac fell to 15th, was that he could be a 10-year plus NFL starters worthy of a second contract in the $30 million per year range. Like a little better than say Ryan Tannehill. That seemed like a home run or solid triple. But I did not expect that, though. I thought that was about a 30 percent chance. Making it an excellent #15 pick, given the importance of the position. When you don’t have a good QB, you take that chance every time, given how cheap pick 15 is. I thought we got lucky he dropped, and, given his pedigree, I was hopeful what I am calling a 30 percent bet would pay out.
As disappointing as he has been, this was always the most likely scenario. This is the 70 percent.
Since 2000- QB s Drafted #10-20
2000- Pennington (18)
2003- Boller- (19)
2004- Ben R- (11)
2006- Leinart- (10), Cutler (11)
2008- Flacco (18)
2009- Freeman (17)
2011- Gabbart (10), Ponder (12)
2013- Manuel (16)
2017- Mahomes (10), Watson (12)
2018- Rosen- (10)
2019- Haskins (15)
2021- Fields (11), Jones (15).
Fine, maybe he isn't a "bust"...but anytime you may find yourself in the company of being better than Leinart, Boller, Freeman, Manuel and Rosen...none of those franchises were happy with their pick and I bet a few fanbases would categorize those picks as QB busts.
And to say he "hasn't been great" is such an understatement.
2000- Pennington (18)
2003- Boller- (19)
2004- Ben R- (11)
2006- Leinart- (10), Cutler (11)
2008- Flacco (18)
2009- Freeman (17)
2011- Gabbart (10), Ponder (12)
2013- Manuel (16)
2017- Mahomes (10), Watson (12)
2018- Rosen- (10)
2019- Haskins (15)
2021- Fields (11), Jones (15).
Fine, maybe he isn't a "bust"...but anytime you may find yourself in the company of being better than Leinart, Boller, Freeman, Manuel and Rosen...none of those franchises were happy with their pick and I bet a few fanbases would categorize those picks as QB busts.
And to say he "hasn't been great" is such an understatement.
I think any first round pick you aren't willing to give real money to in a second contract is a disappointment, especially at the top half of the first.
Jules is on today's Russillo's pod today and he was pretty rough on Mac. He essentially said Mac is incapable of winning football games which seems obvious to us here but is still pretty harsh from a former player/pundit.
He admitted he doesn't know what's going on with the team but my take-away is that given Edelman's pedigree, Mac may have even less runway than people thought. If a former Patriot star isn't offering any defense of Mac in a public forum, imagine what's being said in private.
He admitted he doesn't know what's going on with the team but my take-away is that given Edelman's pedigree, Mac may have even less runway than people thought. If a former Patriot star isn't offering any defense of Mac in a public forum, imagine what's being said in private.
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Leaving Mac and Fields out, there’s 14 QB in that list. 8 of them were godawful zeroes in the league. That means that if you draft a QB 10-20, there is a 57% chance he will be a total zero. Total swing and miss.
There are a couple pretty decent QBs on this list like Pennington and Cutler. Four were/are in the pretty good-to-great range (Mahomes, Ben, Watson, Flacco).
So…
Whiffs: 8 of 14 (57%)
Decent: 2 of 14 (14%)
Good/great: 4 of 14 (29%)
Just from this data (excluding Fields and Mac because we don’t know yet), there’s a really good chance (71%) that the best you’re gonna get is a “decent” QB. (And some would place Flacco in that category but I’m putting him a notch higher, but if we put him there that’s 11 of 14 or 79%).
So yeah fan bases can be disappointed in a 71% chance that the best you’re gonna get is a “decent” QB if you draft in that range, but…. That’s the reality.
Counterpoint, Edelman played his entire career with Tom Brady throwing him the ball. He might be like us in that his standards are totally wrecked from being used to the best every single week.
To further drive the point home that you need to be picking in the top 10 to get usually even a shot at a QB that turns into a decent starter (no guarantees there), here are the other QBs picked outside the top 10 since 2018 that aren’t out of the league or have proven they are backups at best:
Most Would Take Over Mac
Lamar Jackson
Jalen Hurts
Brock Purdy
Maybe/Maybe Not?
Justin Fields
Kenny Pickett
Jordan Love
Sam Howell
Unlike other positions, you can’t really get on Belichick too much for picking the wrong guy. It is really freaking tough to be a QB in the NFL. Only a few humans can do it and sadly only a couple of those at most are born each year and Belichick is maybe too good of a coach to give you a shot of drafting that high. The only way back to the top in the NFL usually requires a trip down to the bottom.
Edited to add Howell
Most Would Take Over Mac
Lamar Jackson
Jalen Hurts
Brock Purdy
Maybe/Maybe Not?
Justin Fields
Kenny Pickett
Jordan Love
Sam Howell
Unlike other positions, you can’t really get on Belichick too much for picking the wrong guy. It is really freaking tough to be a QB in the NFL. Only a few humans can do it and sadly only a couple of those at most are born each year and Belichick is maybe too good of a coach to give you a shot of drafting that high. The only way back to the top in the NFL usually requires a trip down to the bottom.
Edited to add Howell
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IIRC, didn’t a couple of former Pats call out Mac’s sideline antics last season? I get the sense that the old crew isn’t enamored with him.
Sam Howell went about 4 picks after Zappe. Howell was a high ceiling, low floor raw toolsy prospect most had rated higher than the low ceiling Zappe. Yet another case where Bill whiffed in 2022.
When you’re picking the cherries, you get to pick the ripest ones.
Love JT, he has generally been pro Mac so to see him skewer him says a lot. Perhaps the play that said more than anything else was when Mac ran for 3 yards on 2nd and long without even looking at any receivers when he had 3 open and no pressure, I think JT called that a bad HS play. The biggest non-Mac thing that stood out to me watching the all-22 is that Gesicki is a plodder in the intermediate game and gives you nothing. Not sure why they continue to play him like a big WR and don't give someone like Boutte more opportunity after a fairly strong opening game. Gesicki should be used in the redzone and short yardage chain mover where he can use his size to his advantage, having him run crossers and overs is a joke.
I recall that as well. The distinction here is that this was an entirely performance based critique. Edelman didn't even try to offer any sort of optimism.
Or maybe I am over interpreting. Regardless it feels like Mac doesn't have many believers left, be it here or in the takesphere.
Poor Mac. He can cry himself to sleep on his huge pillow.
Is the pendulum swinging too far on this. Mac is bad but like a bad NFL starter. He is starting to get spoken about like he is Ryan Leaf.
As a non-Mac aside, it's kind of funny watching the Douglas big play... shows you both the quickness he has, but also.... I'm like 85-90% sure he completely screwed up that route and that's why he ran into Parker.
Boutte caught as many passes as I did in game 1. He got open, but that was it. Gesicki is ill-suited for the routes that were highlighted for sure, but I don't think they consider Boutte much of an option right now, and he'll sit unless Parker or Bourne goes down.
Gesicki is a guy you throw on the field to run vertically down the seam and then you throw the ball above his head for him to make a play. He's not fast, he's not shifty, I was always concerned about his fit for this offense considering the skill sets of Henry, Juju and even Bourne, and to me he's the worst out of the group when he runs long developing or horizontal routes. You're right, Boutte played big slot in college as is way more dynamic, if that's what you're using Gesicki as, I'd rather see more of him as well.
Look at the history of QBs drafted in the first round over the past decade.
The bust to hit ratio is VERY high. Your standard is a strawman relative to the results. Most of them are busts.