Wonder how much a year of Cutch would cost? Cole just went for a song more or less. Have the DH be a rotation if necessary.
Like the idea in principle, but we’d have to give up Groome to beat whatever the Giants offer, which almost surely starts with Tyler Beede.Wonder how much a year of Cutch would cost? Cole just went for a song more or less. Have the DH be a rotation if necessary.
Seeing Reed go at 2 years at under $10m/per and without a speculated Sox interest is indeed a curious one. Or at least leaves me buying more into the Sox having a legit and focused interest in JDM then I was previously.Setting aside the question whether Reed preferred the Midwest... the Red Sox are rapidly running out of cap space to fit under the $237MM secondary threshold, at which point the penalties start becoming really punitive under the new CBA.
Assuming Mookie wins his arbitration hearing and the Sox sign Martinez for $25MM per year or more, there’s not enough salary room to add $8.5MM for a 4th bullpen arm with closer experience. Not without losing draft position, and an extra reliever just isn’t worth it.
I mean he’s never going to be confused for Stanton but 28 homers would have been tops on the Sox. I could be wrong on that part. He’s not JDM but he will cost a lot less next season.Would McCutchen solve our power issues, though? Sure, we'd have a deeper and more well-rounded lineup, but he's not a power hitter in the vein of, say, JDM. I might bite if DD didn't already deplete the hell out of the farm, but not sure I would in this case.
As much as people might like that type of surface fit on paper, those pesky and surrounding baseball politics probably get in the way of it in reality. Slotting him in LF full time is one thing, but from the player perspective it would be a pretty dirty FO move on both sides to put the guy like that in a DH'ing role leading into his first (and maybe only) big crack at free agency.Wonder how much a year of Cutch would cost? Cole just went for a song more or less. Have the DH be a rotation if necessary.
Nah, the Pirates would want more cheap years than what Bradley has left.As much as people might like that type of surface fit on paper, those pesky and surrounding baseball politics probably get in the way of it in reality. Slotting him in LF full time is one thing, but from the player perspective it would be a pretty dirty FO move on both sides to put the guy like that in a DH'ing role leading into his first (and maybe only) big crack at free agency.
That said I don't see us matching up well given the Pirite's tendency to like fairly cheap/controllable and ready-to-play now pieces. Other then the potential Bradley fit if DD gets desperate coming down the off-season stretch.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're getting at, but if we're talking about sharing time between DH, 1B, and 3B, that's more like 2000 PA to split up.I'd rather go after someone like Frazier or Moustakas who could offer coverage at 3B, possibly at 1B and DH. Frazier might take 2 years at McCutchen money while Moustakas would need a little bit more. Both will eat into Hanley's time but it may help to keep Hanley rested. He may not get his option triggered but he'd play and be on a winner. There is roughly 800 AB to split up between Hanley, Devers, Mitch and whom ever they sign.
I understand everyone is saying that the return for Cole was light, but I'm not sure it really was. For Cole's arb2 and arb3 seasons, Pittsburgh received:Wonder how much a year of Cutch would cost? Cole just went for a song more or less. Have the DH be a rotation if necessary.
Agreed with the above.I understand everyone is saying that the return for Cole was light, but I'm not sure it really was. For Cole's arb2 and arb3 seasons, Pittsburgh received:
That's pretty good for Cole, given his last two seasons. All of these players should be okay to good MLB players, with Moran in particular having considerable upside — he just hit 18 HR in 350 PA. People saying it's a light package must be comparing it, I think, to the prospects we gave up for Sale, but that's because we got an extra year of a better pitcher in Sale.
- 5 years of control of a 24 year old SP who has been okay in his early cups of coffee.
- A high-end 3B prospect in Colin Moran, with serious offensive potential and 6 years of control remaining.
- A pre-arb RP with a 13 K/9 in Michael Feliz, and
- A good OF prospect in Jason Martin, who just had a very good season between A+ and AA as a 21 year old.
(I'd love to acquire McCutchen if JDM chooses elsewhere, but I'm not sure we really have a ton to trade.)
Or maybe they feel Smith offers just as much if not more and they have a good read on Thornburg recovering well from surgery?Seeing Reed go at 2 years at under $10m/per and without a speculated Sox interest is indeed a curious one. Or at least leaves me buying more into the Sox having a legit and focused interest in JDM then I was previously.
Yeah, I don't think it has anything to do with JDM. I would guess it's far more likely that they're confident that Smith will take over the 8th inning role.Or maybe they feel Smith offers just as much if not more and they have a good read on Thornburg recovering well from surgery?
Maybe, which was a possibility I pointed out at the beginning of this offseason. Hence the buying more there instead of actually buying into it completely. At least coming from my previous stance that was strongly guessing DD was done with major lineup changes, and that this supposed 5 year offer we have on the table is more resigning Lester'y legit then anything else.Or maybe they feel Smith offers just as much if not more and they have a good read on Thornburg recovering well from surgery?
I agree, and unfortunately his value will likely benefit the New York Yankees who have a gaping hole at third.Moustakas stopped making any potential sense the moment we clogged up our incoming roster flexibility with the Moreland signing.
That said I'm still genuinely interested to see where his market actually comes in at though, and which might fall way short of early surface speculation guesses. Like Bruce he could end up being one of the better value buy pieces this FA class had to offer imo.
I see Reed as more than a 4th bullpen arm (who are the top 3?), and am not as optimistic as you are that a JDM signing is inevitable. Reed could have helped the team this season and been Kimbrel insurance in 2019. With Reed off the market I hope the Red Sox look at Watson and Duensing.Assuming Mookie wins his arbitration hearing and the Sox sign Martinez for $25MM per year or more, there’s not enough salary room to add $8.5MM for a 4th bullpen arm with closer experience. Not without losing draft position, and an extra reliever just isn’t worth it.
Reed would have been, easily, the second best arm in the pen if he had signed with the Red Sox.I see Reed as more than a 4th bullpen arm (who are the top 3?), and am not as optimistic as you are that a JDM signing is inevitable. Reed could have helped the team this season and been Kimbrel insurance in 2019. With Reed off the market I hope the Red Sox look at Watson and Duensing.
First, volatility of relievers makes this statement difficult to predict in advance. Here's a FIP chart, anyway.Reed would have been, easily, the second best arm in the pen if he had signed with the Red Sox.
I'll tell you why I can argue that might be better than Reed in 2018: because relievers are volatile.Edit: I also don't see how you can confidently argue anyone in the Red Sox pen is better than Reed, with the obvious exception of Craig Kimbrel.
My objection to Kelly aside, Barnes is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide and I don't buy his home numbers as sustainable. Smith is coming off of an injury that has an impact on control longer than any other aspect of pitching, and he's a pitcher who relies on control to be good. Thornburg should be considered toast until he defies the odds and gets back to throwing dominant innings, given the injury he's trying to come back from.
After that who can you throw into the conversation with a straight face? Brandon Workman? Meh.
Good post. Mostly agree except for the above. Jay Bruce seems quite far from Theo’s kind of player. And to the larger point, DD is far more the “sign this guy and call it a day”-type GM than Theo or Ben, who generally operated with a lot of complexity.And most importantly -- adding an 11th RHP reliever doesn't appear to fit how DDski does business. He's not building a team with Cherington's or Theo's model. I can almost guarantee either of them would have been happy to sign Bruce and Reed, and then call it a day. Well, Theo surely would have tried to pull a 3-way trade to pry Stanton off the Marlins, too. But the point generally stands.
The 800 AB is the potential number of AB that could be available to the extra guy across three positions - some from 3B, some from 1B and some as DH. Assuming injury or potential down play from one of the three. Also includes potential PH. Assuming 4.5 - 5 AB/game across 162 games. So roughly 2400 across all three positions.Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're getting at, but if we're talking about sharing time between DH, 1B, and 3B, that's more like 2000 PA to split up.
Also, I don't see Moustakas signing anywhere where he's not assured of being the full time starter at 3B. With Devers around, any starting-caliber 3B is going to be hesitant at best to sign here. The notion of splitting one's time between 2-3 positions is a hard sell for a free agent who by all rights is deserving of a single starting position. Frazier might be an easier sell on that concept, but if he's looking at it as a pillow type deal to try to get one more score next winter, he's not going to be keen on being a platoon player either.
This isn't a rotisserie league and it isn't a video game. Ideas like these fit better in those realms where you're not dealing with individual egos and feelings.
Just curious but aren`t the Sox at $191,115,000 now. According to Cot`s they have Mookie at $9 so that could change but they also have added in Rusney at $11,771,429. His salary shouldn`t count towards the cap unless he wasn`t grandfather in the new CBA.Setting aside the question whether Reed preferred the Midwest... the Red Sox are rapidly running out of cap space to fit under the $237MM secondary threshold, at which point the penalties start becoming really punitive under the new CBA.
Assuming Mookie wins his arbitration hearing and the Sox sign Martinez for $25MM per year or more, there’s not enough salary room to add $8.5MM for a 4th bullpen arm with closer experience. Not without losing draft position, and an extra reliever just isn’t worth it.
For cap purposes, you're looking at the wrong tab if it includes Castillo (there are two: "MLB Boston 18" and "Red Sox Tax Tracker 18"). The Sox still have to pay his salary, so it has to be accounted for, but it does not count against the cap unless he's added back to the 40-man roster.Just curious but aren`t the Sox at $191,115,000 now. According to Cot`s they have Mookie at $9 so that could change but they also have added in Rusney at $11,771,429. His salary shouldn`t count towards the cap unless he wasn`t grandfather in the new CBA.
Betts is not represented by Scott Boras. His agent is Steve Veltman at Legacy.This should probably go in it's own thread, but I'd love to see the Sox make an olive branch extension offer to Betts that would pay him his $10.5M this year and lock him in for 2 FA years. Tell him we think he's worth it now and we want him to be a core part of this team. I get that he's a Boras guy, but there's a decent chance that there's a not unreasonable dollar and years figure that could secure Betts' prime while still giving him a chance to cash in big in his late 20s.
IMO, this should be as big a priority this offseason as adding another big bat, for 3 reasons: (1) I don't want to lose Mookie after his arb years when he's only 29; (2) I fear the salary inflation we're likely to see with next year's FA class; and (3) I don't want the Sox to have to pay him $40M/year for 7 years into his mid-30s.
Signing Betts to an extension as you suggest would assuredly put the team in a position where they likely couldn't afford to pay for a big bat like JD Martinez without being in danger of exceeding the secondary luxury cap. As has already been pointed out in this thread, they're likely to be within $10M of that cap should they sign Martinez right now. Extending Betts now likely eats up whatever breathing room they may have under the cap.This should probably go in it's own thread, but I'd love to see the Sox make an olive branch extension offer to Betts that would pay him his $10.5M this year and lock him in for 2 FA years. Tell him we think he's worth it now and we want him to be a core part of this team. I get that he's a Boras guy, but there's a decent chance that there's a not unreasonable dollar and years figure that could secure Betts' prime while still giving him a chance to cash in big in his late 20s.
IMO, this should be as big a priority this offseason as adding another big bat, for 3 reasons: (1) I don't want to lose Mookie after his arb years when he's only 29; (2) I fear the salary inflation we're likely to see with next year's FA class; and (3) I don't want the Sox to have to pay him $40M/year for 7 years into his mid-30s.
Hence the quandary I think the Sox are in here. They want to sign JDM, but not so much that it hamstrings future moves. If they do sign JDM, they can't extend Betts now without exceeding the $237M CBT penalties threshold, unless they can jettison HR's (or others') salaries, which seems unlikely. They can wait until next season, but you're right, Betts will be advised to wait to see what mammoth deals get signed to see where the market is heading, and he'll potentially cost much more to extend.Extensions typically aren’t inked until closer to ST, when the free agents have already signed, though. Once Mookie has played his season & put up his numbers, what reason does he have to to sign something quickly, before the rest of the FAS move the market?
I thought extensions by teams with CBT concerns usually get announced in April or later like AGon, Beckett, Pedroia. That way they dont influence the current year.Extensions typically aren’t inked until closer to ST, when the free agents have already signed, though. Once Mookie has played his season & put up his numbers, what reason does he have to to sign something quickly, before the rest of the FAS move the market?
Josh Ockimey hitting that player comp gold.Red Sox zips projections are out.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
It did.I could be corrected, but I’m pretty sure that loophole got closed at last CBA.
Truly.Josh Ockimey hitting that player comp gold.
meanwhile Brock Holt's comp is... Steve LyonsJosh Ockimey hitting that player comp gold.
Symborski actually has him listed as "Brock Holt!" which is pretty funny.meanwhile Brock Holt's comp is... Steve Lyons
And Castillo at .307...does he have any hope of breaking out of purgatory?One that sticks out is Brentz's somewhat rosy projection of a .318 wOBA. That's what Hanley put up last year.
It would take quite a cataclysmic turn of events from him to brought back to Fenway in a Red Sox uniform. I honestly think his only hope is to play out of his mind in Pawtucket and hope another team sees it and wants to take the risk of making a trade. He carries an $10.3M cap hit through 2020 ($35.5M in actual money). That's an expensive gamble to trade for if any AAA success he has doesn't carry over.And Castillo at .307...does he have any hope of breaking out of purgatory?
Nope. A comparably skilled outfielder with a .305 projected wOBA is Jarrod Dyson, and he's probably looking at two years, $12 million in this market. Castillo's at 3/$35.5M as soon as he gets called up.And Castillo at .307...does he have any hope of breaking out of purgatory?