Top Players under 25

jacklamabe65 · Mar 19, 2021

For three years, 2010-2012, Donovan Mitchell was the best pitcher on my middle school baseball team. He threw major gas, and when he wasn't pitching, he was an outstanding centerfielder. He couldn't hit anything that wasn't a fastball, though, and turned to basketball as a result. His father, who has worked for the Mets for two decades, told me recently that if he had stuck to baseball, he would have been a solid minor leaguer. By the way, Donovan actually loves baseball more than basketball and religiously watches baseball games during the off-season. Here he is pitching on a cold, windswept April day in Connecticut.

Auger34 · Mar 19, 2021

Cesar Crespo said:
Rather than rank them, I'd give them tiers. I'm sure people will disagree with a lot of it but that's fine. I think the players in the tiers are pretty interchangeable for the most part. Some if it is obviously based on potential but I'm not counting guys who aren't producing right now.

Tier 1
Tatum
Ball
Mitchell
Doncic
Zion
SGA (fight me)

Tier 2
Ben Simmons
Bam
Young
Collins
Jaylen Brown
Sabonis
Booker
Jamal Murray
Ja Morant
Ingram
Fox

Tier 3
Herro
Hunter
RJ Barrett
Lauri
OG
Sexton
Garland
Ayton
Gary Trent
Dejounte Murray
James Wiseman (don't know where to rank)
Anthon Edwards (don't know where to rank)
JJJ
Lonzo
Haliburton

Everyone else:
Monk
PJ Washington
Coby White
Wendall Carter Jr
Patrick Williams
Myles Turner
Hachimura
Thomas Bryant
Jarrett Allen
Mikal Bridges
Cameron Johnson
Michael Porter
Lonnie Walker
Keldon Johnson
Time Lord
Jalen Brunson
Clarke
Bane
Melton
Maledon
Bagley
Beasley
DAR

I would have guessed Brown was in the top 20 players under 25. He's anywhere from 7 to 17. I don't think he's all that much better than Ingram, Fox, Murray, Ja. I could see Edwards and Wiseman passing him too, but by the time they do that... Brown will no longer be under 25. Tatum would fall anywhere from 1-6, but on most list the top 3.

Do people disagree on my ranking of Brown?

I think the top 3 tiers are pretty spot on with the exception of John Collins. I think he’s pretty firmly entrenched in Tier 3.

Kliq · Mar 19, 2021

I think your tiers are pretty solid although I'd argue that Luka might be in a tier by himself at this point because he is a legit MVP candidate and those other guys are not, and he just turned 22.

I'd consider putting Tre in the top tier as well. His defense is still really bad but he is probably a Top 10 or so creator in the NBA (LeBron, Harden, Jokic, Giannis, Luka, Dame, Steph, Durant...anybody else) and that really matters. The Hawks are starting to win now too.

jon abbey · Mar 19, 2021

My man Quickley should be in there somewhere.

Jimbodandy · Mar 19, 2021

That's a damn good ranking for right now. Well done. No issues with it.

chilidawg · Mar 19, 2021

Tatum of late doesn't deserve a tier 1 ranking. Ball is surprising there, I generally think he's underrated. I think I'd bump Simmons up and Ball down nevertheless.

chilidawg · Mar 19, 2021

By Lebron:

Doncic
Tatum
Turner
Young
Simmons
Dejounte Murray
Mitchell
Bam
Morant
TimeLord!

HomeRunBaker · Mar 20, 2021

chilidawg said:
Tatum of late doesn't deserve a tier 1 ranking. Ball is surprising there, I generally think he's underrated. I think I'd bump Simmons up and Ball down nevertheless.

The Simmons/Ball swap is what stood out to me as well and I am a Melo fan. The Quickley omission too as I’d make a case for him in Tier 3.....not sure how much of the Knicks people watch around here but he’s legit future All-Star ceiling. Tatum/Jaylen belong in the same tier whichever you choose. I’m good with where Young is as I could never move him up without moving Fox up first.

bigq · Mar 20, 2021

chilidawg said:
By Lebron:

Doncic
Tatum
Turner
Young
Simmons
Dejounte Murray
Mitchell
Bam
Morant
TimeLord!

Thanks. In an otherwise disappointing Celtics season this post brought a smile.

chilidawg · Mar 20, 2021

By RPM:

Lonzo
Melton
Jordan Poole
Divencenzo
J Murray
Simmons
Jaylen
Hunter
Mitchell
Doncic

Sam Ray Not · Mar 20, 2021

Quibbles...

Weird seeing Booker, Simmons, Brown on a lower tier than LaMelo, Zion, SGA, Mitchell. At minimum all those guys seem to me like a similar tier. I think I’m on board with Kliq’s suggestion of putting Doncic on his own tier, with all the other tier 1-2 guys together.

(Obligatory) RPM thinks Jordan Poole — who doesn’t even make the “everyone else” bin! — is ahead of everyone on Tiers 1-3 except DeAnthony Melton and Lonzo Ball.

I’d rate at least half the guys in the “everyone else” bin above Gary Trent, Jr.

DLo is 25.

I know, it’s a tough list to make if we’re trying to weigh proven production v. potential. I think straight up “trade value” is a clearer criteria, but then you get into who has better contract, more cheap years left, etc. Something like “trade value assuming they were all on similar contracts” might be the simplest criteria for ranking babies like Edwards/Wiseman v. the 4-5 year vets. But I feel like Edwards/Wiseman are better compared v. Cunningham, Suggs, and Mobley.

chilidawg · Mar 20, 2021

By Raptor:

Doncic
J Murray
Young
Tatum
Collins
Turner
Lonzo
Jaylen
Allen
Young

All the players from Jaylen up are in the top 30 overall. Lots of young guys playing well already.

Edit: I was looking at Raptor WAR, and not the rate stat.

chilidawg · Mar 20, 2021

By Raptor rate:

Doncic
Hunter
Melton
Cam Johnson
Isiah Stewart
Turner
Allen
Thybulle
Young
Tatum
Lonzo

the moops · Mar 20, 2021

Tier 1 needs to be much smaller.

Doncic, Zion

Or maybe just Doncic

DannyDarwinism · Mar 20, 2021

Sam Ray Not said:
(Obligatory) RPM thinks Jordan Poole — who doesn’t even make the “everyone else” bin! — is ahead of everyone on Tiers 1-3 except DeAnthony Melton and Lonzo Ball.

He's played 290 minutes this year and was really really bad last year.

Jimbodandy · Mar 20, 2021

Side note, but it's pretty fascinating how much the current prevailing metrics differ on these guys. I'm really looking forward to having one that we all believe in like five years from now.

Sam Ray Not · Mar 20, 2021

DannyDarwinism said:
He's played 290 minutes this year and was really really bad last year.

290 minutes of 25.2 points per 36 on .661 true shooting (.504 fg, .402 3fg, .909 ft) at age 21 should still get you at minimum in the "everyone else" bin. You could give half the guys on that list a hundred 290-minute samples without any of them sniffing those numbers. Poole could fall off from those numbers a ton (as I suspect he will, else he’s a top 20 scorer in this league) and still be worthy of inclusion on the list somewhere.

A little context on Poole's "really really bad" last year. He was absolutely really, really bad — arguably the worst rotation player in the league — in the first half of the season, as a pudgy 20 y.o. baby given big minutes for a tanking team before he was ready to handle them. In the last couple months of his rookie year — after a stint in Santa Cruz where he lit it up — he looked like a completely different player.

February of his rookie year (10 games): 17.7 pts / 4.7 ast per 36 on .547 ts
March of his rookie year (5 games): 19.2 pts/ 6.4 ast per 36 on .645 ts.
Two stints in the G-League (14 games): 24.7 pts / 4.0 ast per 36 on .638 ts

His evolution into a different player has continued pretty much unabated since the second half of his rookie year. Coming into the season, Kerr raved more than he did about any other player in camp about the transformation of Poole’s body and game. (His comparative silence on the development of Paschall and Smailagic also spoke volumes). His game has gotten 10x more decisive and confident, and his baby fat has been replaced by an impressively ripped physique for a 21 year-old, on a solid frame (6'-4" in bare feet, 6'-7" wingspan). At 21 he looks to be making "the leap" that a lot of good players make around his age. How real that leap is and how high it goes remains TBD.

I mean, obviously I'm gonna pimp my guy way more than he deserves (viz. Chriss, Paschall et al.) You guys could say some similar things about the leap of Carsen Edwards from his atrocious year one to his decent year two, with the key caveat that Carsen is never gonna be a rugged 6'-4", and isn't actually that close to Poole as passer or shooter (from three point range or the FT stripe, which tends to be a key indicator for projectable shooting).

I'd actually be curious to hear a case for Gary Trent, Jr. as clearly better than Poole, beyond the fact that GTJ has seen big minutes in the absence of McCollum. Through my gold-and-blue glasses, I see similar ages, frames, and roles, with Poole as the significantly more promising passer, playmaker, and scorer, and the better (or less bad) rebounder. And while Trent has a much more established track record as a legit NBA spot-up shooter in key situations, Poole's better FT% suggests he might have similar potential in that area. Trent may be the better defender, but I think it's too early to say for either of them in that area. Poole at least seems to work pretty hard on that end (as does GTJ).

TLDR: "Everyone else" bin, at least!

slamminsammya · Mar 20, 2021

Sam Ray Not said:
290 minutes of 25.2 points per 36 on .661 true shooting (.504 fg, .402 3fg, .909 ft) at age 21 should still get you at minimum in the "everyone else" bin. You could give half the guys on that list a hundred 290-minute samples without any of them sniffing those numbers. Poole could fall off from those numbers a ton (as I suspect he will, else he’s a top 20 scorer in this league) and still be worthy of inclusion on the list somewhere.

A little context on Poole's "really really bad" last year. He was absolutely really, really bad — arguably the worst rotation player in the league — in the first half of the season, as a pudgy 20 y.o. baby given big minutes for a tanking team before he was ready to handle them. In the last couple months of his rookie year — after a stint in Santa Cruz where he lit it up — he looked like a completely different player.

February of his rookie year (10 games): 17.7 pts / 4.7 ast per 36 on .547 ts
March of his rookie year (5 games): 19.2 pts/ 6.4 ast per 36 on .645 ts.
Two stints in the G-League (14 games): 24.7 pts / 4.0 ast per 36 on .638 ts

His evolution into a different player has continued pretty much unabated since the second half of his rookie year. Coming into the season, Kerr raved more than he did about any other player in camp about the transformation of Poole’s body and game. (His comparative silence on the development of Paschall and Smailagic also spoke volumes). His game has gotten 10x more decisive and confident, and his baby fat has been replaced by an impressively ripped physique for a 21 year-old, on a solid frame (6'-4" in bare feet, 6'-7" wingspan). At 21 he looks to be making "the leap" that a lot of good players make around his age. How real that leap is and how high it goes remains TBD.

I mean, obviously I'm gonna pimp my guy way more than he deserves (viz. Chriss, Paschall et al.) You guys could say some similar things about the leap of Carsen Edwards from his atrocious year one to his decent year two, with the key caveat that Carsen is never gonna be a rugged 6'-4", and isn't actually that close to Poole as passer or shooter (from three point range or the FT stripe, which tends to be a key indicator for projectable shooting).

I'd actually be curious to hear a case for Gary Trent, Jr. as clearly better than Poole, beyond the fact that GTJ has seen big minutes in the absence of McCollum. Through my gold-and-blue glasses, I see similar ages, frames, and roles, with Poole as the significantly more promising passer, playmaker, and scorer, and the better (or less bad) rebounder. And while Trent has a much more established track record as a legit NBA spot-up shooter in key situations, Poole's better FT% suggests he might have similar potential in that area. Trent may be the better defender, but I think it's too early to say for either of them in that area. Poole at least seems to work pretty hard on that end (as does GTJ).

TLDR: "Everyone else" bin, at least!

Carsen is having a decent year two? ;p

the moops · Mar 20, 2021

Sam Ray Not said:
You could give half the guys on that list a hundred 290-minute samples without any of them sniffing those numbers.

I don't think this is anywhere near true. You could find a 290 minute stretch of incredible play by just about any player in the league. His just happens to be up to this point in the season.

DannyDarwinism · Mar 20, 2021

Stay golden, pony boy.

I mostly agree with the list, though Cam Johnson is 25, so he shouldn't count, take another Cam (Reddish) instead. I'd have Mikal Bridges, Dort, Melton, and probably a couple of others ahead of Trent. If it's based on potential, I might some guys like Vassell, Okoro, Okungwu, Jaden McDaniels, Kira Lewis, Precious, Cole Anthony, Nic Claxton, Bazley ahead of Maledon, but its tough to rank the rookies and not gonna argue with Maledon, who has played well. Quickley and Naz Reid have probably played their way on there. Fultz, Mitchell Robinson, Zubac, DiVincenzo, Lonzo, Huerter all merit a mention. Jordan Poole does not.

Sam Ray Not · Mar 20, 2021

slamminsammya said:
Carsen is having a decent year two? ;p

Well, relative to his year one ... right? Point was that it’s really common for guys to make a leap from awful rookie years to much better sophomore years. Though I just noticed Carsen is 23 — 15 months older than JP — so yeah ... that was probably a bad pick, even though you expect most guys picked that low to bust.

Sam Ray Not · Mar 20, 2021

the moops said:
I don't think this is anywhere near true. You could find a 290 minute stretch of incredible play by just about any player in the league. His just happens to be up to this point in the season.

“Incredible” is one thing; 25.2 points per 36 on .661 true shooting is another. Since 1985-86, there are five players who have scored more points in fewer minutes over any eight-game stretch than JP just did: the other Jordan, Ricky Pierce, Walter Davis, JR Smith, and Steph’s dad. Some decently gifted scorers in that group. And here’s a complete list of guys under 22 who have scored more points per minute than JP has this season. Pretty decent group as well. And JP has a higher TS than anyone in the top 100 of that list.

Not saying he’s a surefire star or anything, just saying that that level of extreme result, even in a 290-minute sample, should get you included in the “everyone else” bin.

chilidawg · Mar 20, 2021

Jimbodandy said:
Side note, but it's pretty fascinating how much the current prevailing metrics differ on these guys. I'm really looking forward to having one that we all believe in like five years from now.

Raptor and LeBron aren't too off from each other, at least the top ten is a lot of the same guys. RPM seems a bit further out there from what a consensus view might be. I like to use them as a way to look for guys who I might not otherwise think of as top tier guys, but who the numbers suggest might actually be good. Wood fit that description last year, Middleton and Covington are other guys who stood out via advanced stats before they had much of a reputation. Melton might be one of those guys, or Dejounte Murray.

Jimbodandy · Mar 20, 2021

chilidawg said:
Raptor and LeBron aren't too off from each other, at least the top ten is a lot of the same guys. RPM seems a bit further out there from what a consensus view might be. I like to use them as a way to look for guys who I might not otherwise think of as top tier guys, but who the numbers suggest might actually be good. Wood fit that description last year, Middleton and Covington are other guys who stood out via advanced stats before they had much of a reputation. Melton might be one of those guys, or Dejounte Murray.

I agree completely. IMO, that's the best use of most of these metrics. They're pretty good directionally and call out guys that might be overrated or, more commonly, really overlooked.

In the past, RPM has seemed to grossly under-regress (that's not a word) for teammates. So it would boost a guy who perhaps doesn't deserve it, because he's surrounded by better players who he's drafting off. Still does highlight guys that we should maybe be looking at.

Sam Ray Not · Mar 20, 2021

chilidawg said:
Raptor and LeBron aren't too off from each other, at least the top ten is a lot of the same guys. RPM seems a bit further out there from what a consensus view might be. I like to use them as a way to look for guys who I might not otherwise think of as top tier guys, but who the numbers suggest might actually be good. Wood fit that description last year, Middleton and Covington are other guys who stood out via advanced stats before they had much of a reputation. Melton might be one of those guys, or Dejounte Murray.

Yeah ... as much as I love Poole, his 290 minutes landing him at #17 on the RPM board, ahead of the likes of KD and Kyrie — after ~1000 minutes last season of being one of the worst rotation players in the league — is imo just the latest example of what a completely trash metric RPM is. I’m assuming the number can’t know any of the context I gave about Poole being a pudgy baby last year, or Kerr raving about him in camp, or him lighting up Santa Cruz, etc. Even the most basic priors component should be able to appropriately downgrade a guy putting up great numbers in 290 minutes after an awful 1300-minute season.

the moops · Mar 20, 2021

Sam Ray Not said:
And here’s a complete list of guys under 22 who have scored more points per minute than JP has this season. Pretty decent group as well. And JP has a higher TS than anyone in the top 100 of that list.

And you need to go down to #80 on that list before you get to anyone even close to the small number of minutes we are talking about (and that # 80 has twice as many minutes played)

Sam Ray Not · Mar 20, 2021

the moops said:
And you need to go down to #80 on that list before you get to anyone even close to the small number of minutes we are talking about (and that # 80 has twice as many minutes played)

Yeah, those two BB-ref results were passed on from a Warrior board; I’m sure the filters were extremely favorably cherry-picked.

Stull: you’re not gonna just randomly stumble on a stretch of 290 minutes like that as easily as you might think. I’m sure zillions have hit the .650 ts efficiency threshold, but the combo of volume and efficiency is really hard to do. If you could show me a long and motley list of guys who have done it, you could persuade me otherwise.

And of course, we’re not talking about a totally random stretch of a 290 minutes. We’re talking the complete sophomore season to date of a 21 year-old who people were raving about in camp, whose G-league numbers are remarkably similar, and who was trending sharply in his current direction over the second half of his rookie season.

Obviously I’m not saying he warrants mention with Luka and Zion and the other studs on those carefully filtered BB-ref lists. I’m just saying he probably warrants mention on a list that includes the likes of Patrick Williams, Desmond Bane, Theo Maledon, and Timelord.

DannyDarwinism · Mar 20, 2021

It's like 8 games worth of hot shooting while he's doing basically nothing else. He may be a 40% 3pt guy rather than the 28% guy he was on a 3.5x sample last year, and that'd be great, but he's not going to continue to come close to 65% from two. It's just a hot streak. For perspective, it's half of Timelord's minutes this year, and he's missed a bunch of games and been on a minutes restriction. I'm very sure I could find a long and motley list of guys who have done it in such a small sample size (82 3PTA and 57 2PTA!!), but I'm also very sure it wouldn't persuade you otherwise. If it was Carsen or another Celtic doing it, I'm sure I'd be thrilled and excited, but I really don't think 8 games of hot shooting is nearly enough to overshadow a meh prospect who was very bad last year, regardless of what his Steve Kerr says about him.

Sam Ray Not · Mar 21, 2021

DannyDarwinism said:
I'm very sure I could find a long and motley list of guys who have done it in such a small sample size (82 3PTA and 57 2PTA!!), but I'm also very sure it wouldn't persuade you otherwise.

If you’re “very sure” of it, I’d love to see the list. I’d happily generate it myself, but BB-Ref has its “player season finder” locked behind a paywall now; and I’m also not exactly sure how I’d set the endpoints for “any stretch of 290 minutes.”

You could either use our original “290 minutes / 25.2 pts / .661 ts / 290 minute” criteria, or the updated 328 minutes / 25.1 points / .651 ts it stands at now, after he started at PG opposite Ja Morant (tier 2, exact same age as Poole) for the second straight night, and for the second straight night massively outplayed him.

You don’t even have to include the 3.4 assists to 1.1 turnovers per 36 he has put up this season while doing “basically nothing else” other than hot shooting. I think Poole’s much more the Jordan Clarkson archetype than any kind of “true” PG, but it’s his decently well-balanced skills (e.g. passing and handles) would make me consider putting him above a guy like Gary Trent Jr. (a desultory 2.5 rebounds and 1.7 assists per 36).

His play the last two games had the Grizzlies announcers gushing last night that the Warriors had “found a gem.” If only they knew he didn’t merit discussion among a group of intriguing players under 25 that includes Théo Maledon, Isaac Okoro, Nic Claxton, Jaden McDaniels, and Darius Bazley.

DannyDarwinism · Mar 21, 2021

Even if I had a B-ref subscription, I’m not wasting my time trying to find dudes who fit some arbitrary-ass stat profile in a tiny sample to try to move someone who never, ever acknowledges their meme-level bias. It’s great to hear that the Grizzlies’ announcers love the dude, but I’d rather go bang my head against a wall than continue with this. He’s played well relative to his draft slot in a tiny sample after a terrible rookie year, but there are like 100 guys under 25 that I’d take over him.

Sam Ray Not · Mar 21, 2021

DannyDarwinism said:
Even if I had a B-ref subscription, I’m not wasting my time trying to find dudes who fit some arbitrary-ass stat profile in a tiny sample to try to move someone who never, ever acknowledges their meme-level bias. It’s great to hear that the Grizzlies’ announcers love the dude, but I’d rather go bang my head against a wall than continue with this. He’s played well relative to his draft slot in a tiny sample after a terrible rookie year, but there are like 100 guys under 25 that I’d take over him.

Dude, you’re the guy who said you were “very sure” you could do it. I’m not just asking you to put your money where your mouth is; I was also genuinely curious to see how many scrubs have slipped through that particular filter. My sense of that the Moops’ claim that “just about any player in the league” has a similar stretch of 290 minutes is false, but I could be wrong.

Cesar Crespo said:
Plus you are the same guy who pimped out Jordan Bell and Quinn Cook to the moon.

True, and I acknowledged the clear bias. On those two players: I would note that Cook was already 25 when he started being a productive role player, so would never have been in a "promising players under 25" convo; and that Jordan Bell at his peak probably did warrant inclusion in the “also ran” tier of a players under 25. He ended up being a bust, just as a lot of the people on your and Darwinism’s list will, and just as Jordan Poole might.

Dduncan6er · Mar 22, 2021

I can't say I was expecting to see this much Jordan Poole discussion in a "Top Players Under 25" thread.

Sam Ray Not · Mar 22, 2021

Cesar Crespo said:
Bell at his peak did not. Time Lord probably doesn't belong on the list either but I included him to appease Celtics fans.

All the players on my list are already "not busts" unless they get injured. I also guess it depends on what you think a bust is.

I think it’s a little soon to say on the real young’uns like Maledon and Patrick Williams. Ditto the guys Darwinism added to the list (with the caveat “if it’s based on potential”): Vassell, Okoro, Okongwu, Jaden McDaniels, Kira Lewis, Precious, Cole Anthony, Nic Claxton, Bazley.

Working definition of “bust” would I guess be: not getting significant minutes on an NBA roster after your rookie contract. Basically, where Jordan Bell is now, with the caveat that second-rounders should be expected to bust. I don’t think it’s a given that everyone mentioned in this thread (setting aside Jordan Poole) will avoid that fate, though obviously most of them will.

I’m not going to defend Bell too hard, but as a rookie in 2017-18 he did play 809 minutes for an NBA champion, and put up these numbers (per 36);

11.7 points on .641 true shooting
9.2 rebounds
4.5 assists
2.5 steals
1.6 blocks

Pretty intriguing mix of skills, especially when you consider 173 playoff minutes, including some key stretches in the hard-fought WCF victory over the Rockets. I don’t think it would have been unreasonable at that point to put Bell in the same tier 4 on which you currently have guys like Maledon and Timelord.

Anyway, I didn’t mean to knock your list or anything; I noted at the top that it was a tough one to make. Was just proposing a potential addition to your tier 4. Chilidawg probably did it better by simply noting that ESPN’s RPM has the top 4 as: Lonzo, Poole, Melton, DiVincenzo.

Speaking of DiVincenzo (and turning the page on Jordan Poole till he gets to a more reasonable sample, say 600+ minutes or so) I think I’d give him serious consideration as well.

Sam Ray Not · Mar 22, 2021

Cesar Crespo said:
Again, what do you think the floor is for Maledon and Patrick Williams?

I didn’t mean to single those two out; they just jumped out to me as guys one would include more based on potential than on proven production (i.e. closer to Edwards/Wiseman than to Donovan Mitchell). I haven’t watched either of them enough to say anything definitive about them. I’d expect their *realistic floors* are quite high, but players do occasionally fall through their realistic floors. When you get to a list as long as 50-60 young players, the chance that one or two will fall through their presumed floors (even setting aside the risk of injury) is pretty high, I think. Like, what was the presumed floor of Tyreke Evans in 2010, Michael Carter-Williams in 2014, Justise Winslow or Emmanuel Mudiay in 2016? Etc.

On Poole (briefly): another 10 games or so sounds reasonable. He has passed Bazemore, Wanamaker, Lee and Mulder in the Warriors’ rotation, so should continue to get big minutes even when Steph returns from his bruised butt. And yes, the modest rebound and assist numbers suggest more the Jordan Clarkson archetype than the Michael Jordan archetype.

Sam Ray Not · Mar 22, 2021

Fun, vaguely relevant infographic...

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/corner3sports/status/1374067820556914699

Sam Ray Not · Apr 22, 2021

Checking in on old friend Jordan Poole's numbers through 38 games and nearly 700 minutes (per 36 minutes):

21.7 pts on .572 ts (.429/.353/.890) / 2.9 reb / 3.7 ast / +1.81 RPM (#18 among SG)

By way of comparison, here are Tier 3 guys Gary Trent Jr. and Poole's fellow Milwaukeean Tyler Herro, both similar ages and archetypes:

Trent: 17.8 pts on .544 ts (.417/.393/.780) / 3.0 reb / 1.6 ast / -1.27 RPM (#70 among SG)
Herro: 17.4 pts on .528 ts (.426/.342/.809) / 5.7 reb / 4.0 ast / -1.57 RPM (#53 among PG)

Give me Herro of the three, since he's the youngest (seven months younger than Poole, a year younger than Trent, Jr.), and rebounding prowess is one of the few things you can really hang your hat on in players that young. Plus he showed his chops on the biggest stage last season. But I'd definitely take Poole over Trent, Jr. I'm actually not sure I'd even call Trent Jr. a "similar archetype," since unlike the other two he's shown no real aptitude as a secondary ballhandler / passer / playmaker.

Devizier · Apr 22, 2021

I'd be nervous about Herro given that someone in the Miami org is leaking like crazy about his off-court behavior.

slamminsammya · Apr 22, 2021

Cesar Crespo said:
Jordan Poole's last 16 games: .364/.313/.865, 11.8 points, 2.5 assists, 1.7 rebounds in 22.7 mpg.

He had a hot stretch and that hot stretch is over. Yet his stats are still heavily inflated by that hot stretch.

I'd take Herro and Trent all day over Poole without thinking twice.

What do you mean by inflated? You think his true talent level is 31% from 3?

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