Trading for Starting Pitching

[Hee Sox Choi]

The Dodgers just traded P Matt McGill for OF Chris Heisey.
 
This move is particularly interesting given LA's current glut of OF: Kemp, Puig,Crawford, Eithier and Joc Pederson, and now Heisey.
 
...Puig and Pederson... If I were going to trade a valuable pitcher for Cespedes' and a prospect, I might also be inclined to trade that valuable pitcher straight up for one of those two. Movement on the Dodgers front with regards to their OF, certainly bears watching as it impacts the trade market in terms of the Red Sox OF surplus as well.

 
Heisey is a below-average player who hits lefties OK (wRC+ last 3 years overall = 77/89/93(which came with a high BABIP).  Heisey fits well with Joc in CF as a platoon, but I'm not so sure Joc doesn't need more time in AAA to work on not striking out so dang much. MLB pitchers figured him out pretty easily.  NOTE: Joc has 33 Ks in 83 ABs in D.R. Winter League.
 
I wouldn't look too much into the Heisey acquisition other than Magill is not very good (FV = 40 McDaniels on Fangraphs).  Magill had a horrible year (6.27bb/9 in AAA yuck).  Heisey is a nice option for the 5th OF if/when Kemp & Ethier are dealt away and the OFs wind up being Puig/Crawford/Joc+Heisey with Van Slyke being the 4th OF.  Heisey isn't a good enough player for it to have any impact whatsoever to the Yoenis Sweepstakes. 
 
EDITED so I wouldn't be repeating the 2 posts above me.

 

[MikeM]

I.e., it's a good thing Theo didn't dump Lester, Pedroia, and Ellsbury because Casey Fossum, Dernell Stenson, and Sunny Kim all sucked.

 
But it's Johan Santana. "Best pitcher on the planet".
 
Regardless, this Sale talk amounts to little more then an exercise in (3 years premature) fantasy imo. As i just can't see any way Chicago dumps that value contract without getting "equal'ish" face value back that helps them right now AND a prospect package that inspires some serious down the road drool potential.
 
I could get behind a reasonable/realistic trade for Porcello. 

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Mariners just traded for J.A. Happ which would give them 6 starters.  They definitely could use the depth but that would also make it a bit easier to deal an SP for Yoenis.  The trade was JA Happ for Michael Saunders, so the Jays have filled an OF hole left by Melky.
 
"Of course, if another move for an outfielder is in the works, then the moving pieces could begin to line up. And GM Jack Zduriencik gave the impression to reporters, including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link) that he intends to do just that." (from MLBTR)
 
Throw some wood on the HOT STOVE!

 

[mloyko54]

http://www.siriusxm.com/mlbnetworkradio
 
You can listen to 5 minutes of Cherington's interview at that link. He was asked directly if they signed Jon Lester if they could still get a Hamels or Shields, he certainly didn't rule it out. In fact I though it sounded like thats the avenue they are planning (two big SP acquisitions)

 

[jasvlm]

I'll toss this out there because I've been pondering a few different scenarios where the Red Sox find a starter who won't cost a ton of cash as a free agent or prospect talent.
The Red Sox send Cespedes, Middlebrooks, Barnes and Guerra to San Diego for Cashner.  Cashner is controlled for 2 more seasons at what should be reasonable salaries.  He's established himself at a high level of productivity, and while he's had Petco to pitch in, his gb tendencies and strong control (5.7% bb rate in 2014) should stand him in good stead even in Fenway.  He's going to make in the neighborhood of 6 mil in 2015, and perhaps 10 in 2016 depending on the arb awards, and he's only 28.  The Red Sox give up guys they aren't using in Cespedes and Middlebrooks, both of whom are upgrades for San Diego at positions of need with upside.  Barnes and Guerra are the prospect cost to get a higher level arm at this salary level.  AJ Preller, the new SD GM, is itching to make a splash, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to hear that they are the mystery team chasing Lester.  That said, this kind of deal checks boxes on both sides, and would represent a reasonable talent swap.  It isn't a steal for the Red Sox, but most trades aren't going to be unless there is big cash being taken on, and that's not the case here.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I'm liking the Seattle trade they now have a little extra pitching and need an OF.

 

[OnWisc]

I'll toss this out there because I've been pondering a few different scenarios where the Red Sox find a starter who won't cost a ton of cash as a free agent or prospect talent.
The Red Sox send Cespedes, Middlebrooks, Barnes and Guerra to San Diego for Cashner.  Cashner is controlled for 2 more seasons at what should be reasonable salaries.  He's established himself at a high level of productivity, and while he's had Petco to pitch in, his gb tendencies and strong control (5.7% bb rate in 2014) should stand him in good stead even in Fenway.  He's going to make in the neighborhood of 6 mil in 2015, and perhaps 10 in 2016 depending on the arb awards, and he's only 28.  The Red Sox give up guys they aren't using in Cespedes and Middlebrooks, both of whom are upgrades for San Diego at positions of need with upside.  Barnes and Guerra are the prospect cost to get a higher level arm at this salary level.  AJ Preller, the new SD GM, is itching to make a splash, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to hear that they are the mystery team chasing Lester.  That said, this kind of deal checks boxes on both sides, and would represent a reasonable talent swap.  It isn't a steal for the Red Sox, but most trades aren't going to be unless there is big cash being taken on, and that's not the case here.

How is Middlebrooks an upgrade over Solarte? Or anyone for that matter?

Dealing Cashner for a year of Cespedes, a reclamation project, a prospect with a likely ceiling no higher than Cashner's current performance level, and a lottery ticket probably isn't the splash he wants to make, especially if Lester and Scherzer reset the market and the price for Hamels stays high. Cashner could could probably return a better prospect package once teams are outbid on Lester and remain unwilling to meet Amaro's demands on Hamels.

 

[MartyBarrettMVP]

I'm liking the Seattle trade they now have a little extra pitching and need an OF.

 
If they do trade a pitcher, doesn't sound like it's going to be Iwakuma:
 

 
Zduriencik on Iwakuma trade rumors: “We’re not trading Iwakuma. Honestly, I have no idea where that came from. It wouldn’t make any sense."

 
https://twitter.com/StoneLarry/status/540340055622299649

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I'll toss this out there because I've been pondering a few different scenarios where the Red Sox find a starter who won't cost a ton of cash as a free agent or prospect talent.
The Red Sox send Cespedes, Middlebrooks, Barnes and Guerra to San Diego for Cashner.  Cashner is controlled for 2 more seasons at what should be reasonable salaries.  He's established himself at a high level of productivity, and while he's had Petco to pitch in, his gb tendencies and strong control (5.7% bb rate in 2014) should stand him in good stead even in Fenway.  He's going to make in the neighborhood of 6 mil in 2015, and perhaps 10 in 2016 depending on the arb awards, and he's only 28.  The Red Sox give up guys they aren't using in Cespedes and Middlebrooks, both of whom are upgrades for San Diego at positions of need with upside.  Barnes and Guerra are the prospect cost to get a higher level arm at this salary level.  AJ Preller, the new SD GM, is itching to make a splash, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to hear that they are the mystery team chasing Lester.  That said, this kind of deal checks boxes on both sides, and would represent a reasonable talent swap.  It isn't a steal for the Red Sox, but most trades aren't going to be unless there is big cash being taken on, and that's not the case here.

 
I don't think that gets Preller to bite.
 
Middlebrooks has next to no value right now. He's basically a thrown-in to a deal, not someone who's bringing any value. They'd be looking for Cecchini instead.
Barnes is a nice prospect, and would probably do well in Petco, but I'd have to believe SD would be pressing for someone like Johnson or Rodriguez after we tell them Owens is off limits.
Guerra is so far from the bigs that his value is limited in a deal like this.  The Padres have 3 similar prospects already in their pipeline (Trae Turner and Jose Rondon are both top 10 guys in their system already at A ball). If they take back a SS, I'd imagine they'd want one closer to the bigs like Marrero. 
 
Maybe something like Cespedes, Johnson, Cecchini, Marrero for Cashner works for both sides?  I'd hate to give up Marrero here and would look to find a way to keep him around, but if we're keeping X at SS, it might be a good time to sell high on him. Perhaps you could get SD to bite on another starter like Webster or Ranaudo to take his place in such a theoretical deal. It feels like a bit of an overpay, but Cespedes and 2-3 top 10 prospects should certainly get their attention. 

 

 

[jasvlm]

I respect the position you take with regards to Middlebrooks, but buying low on an asset that might well turn out to be serviceable is the type of gamble a team like San Diego needs to take.  Solarte isn't a long term solution, and his upside is non existent.  He's best suited to a utility role, while Middlebrooks, if he learns to lay off pitches out of the zone, could be a 5 year starter at a tough to fill position.  I'll agree that it is very unlikely for that to happen, perhaps at a less than 5% chance, but you have nothing to lose by asking for him here.  Maybe Boston has to give up a Marrero instead of Guerra to get the deal done, but I believe Preller would want more opportunities to hit on an undervalued asset, and would ask for Middlebrooks instead of Cecchini for that reason.   The Rays got SMyly, Adames and Franklin for Price.  Now, Price was more costly, but I'll also argue that he was far more accomplished as a starter than Cashner.  Would Cespedes, Middlebrooks, Raunado/Barnes/Webster/DLR (one of these) and Marrero be that much less valuable?

 

[sackamano]

I respect the position you take with regards to Middlebrooks, but buying low on an asset that might well turn out to be serviceable is the type of gamble a team like San Diego needs to take.  Solarte isn't a long term solution, and his upside is non existent.  He's best suited to a utility role, while Middlebrooks, if he learns to lay off pitches out of the zone, could be a 5 year starter at a tough to fill position.  I'll agree that it is very unlikely for that to happen, perhaps at a less than 5% chance, but you have nothing to lose by asking for him here.  Maybe Boston has to give up a Marrero instead of Guerra to get the deal done, but I believe Preller would want more opportunities to hit on an undervalued asset, and would ask for Middlebrooks instead of Cecchini for that reason.   The Rays got SMyly, Adames and Franklin for Price.  Now, Price was more costly, but I'll also argue that he was far more accomplished as a starter than Cashner.  Would Cespedes, Middlebrooks, Raunado/Barnes/Webster/DLR (one of these) and Marrero be that much less valuable?

That may be the type of gamble the Padres need to take, but they sure as shit take that type of gamble on someone other than Middlebrooks. He's far removed from that guy who hit three shots in Toronto.

The Padres want to gamble? Sign Lester and Scherzer and trade the rest of their starters for hitters.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Dodgers make Zach Greinke available?

As many others are reporting, the Dodgers are expected to be strong players for free-agent starters this winter, and they're making a strong push for Jon Lester, according to Rob Bradford and Alex Speier of WEEI.com. According to major-league sources, a growing concern within the Dodgers' organization that Zach Greinke could opt out of his contract next winter may lead to the team making the right-hander available in trade talks in order to free up a rotation spot for a pitcher like Lester, James Shields or Max Scherzer.

It is currently unknown whether or not the Dodgers have discussed the possibility of trading Greinke with other clubs, though the possibility of them doing so does exist. Greinke, an All-Star in 2014, is slated to make $25 million next season in the third year of his six-year contract with Los Angeles but may opt out in search of a larger deal next winter, when he is 32 years old. The Dodgers currently have an excellent rotation in place with Greinke pitching alongside Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dan Haren, but are always looking to upgrade despite having the largest payroll in baseball.

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2014/12/3/7331013/sources-dodgers-may-shop-zack-greinke-to-make-room-for-free-agent-scherzer-lester

 

[jasvlm]

The Padres may well be in on Lester or Scherzer.  It wouldn't surprise me at all.  I get it that Middlebrooks is an asset whose value is very low right now, but he's not worthless. He may be to the Red Sox, but I don't think that is true either.  He's still cost controlled and plays a serviceable 3b, and he's got 2 plus years of major league experience (given, not all of it very promising, but some guys take longer to realize their potential).

 

[MakMan44]

How much would Grienke net them in a trade? If they're only shopping him because they're concerned about the opt out, they'll be looking at salary relief mostly. 

 

[sackamano]

There can't be any way in hell that Zack Greinke, at 33, can actually get someone to pay him more than $25 million next off-season, is there?

 

[CaskNFappin]

There can't be any way in hell that Zack Greinke, at 33, can actually get someone to pay him more than $25 million next off-season, is there?

3/80 seems possible with the money flying around.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

The Padres may well be in on Lester or Scherzer.  It wouldn't surprise me at all.  I get it that Middlebrooks is an asset whose value is very low right now, but he's not worthless. He may be to the Red Sox, but I don't think that is true either.  He's still cost controlled and plays a serviceable 3b, and he's got 2 plus years of major league experience (given, not all of it very promising, but some guys take longer to realize their potential).

Stop. His overall body of experience at the major league level is still limited, but he carries a negative uzr/150.  He's been not laying off the low and away stuff for a bunch of years now.  His wRC+ was 44 last year.  He's had two years at the ML level only because the team was thin at his position and obviously wanted to give him every opportunity to get himself back on track, which failed miserably.  Could he "find it" at some point?  Sure.  But no one is giving up anything of value to find out.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

There can't be any way in hell that Zack Greinke, at 33, can actually get someone to pay him more than $25 million next off-season, is there?

He'll be 31 going on 32. And the question is more whether the deal he can get next year will be better than what he's signed for plus what he might expect to get at age 35.

 

[MikeM]

He'll be 31 going on 32. And the question is more whether the deal he can get next year will be better than what he's signed for plus what he might expect to get at age 35.

 
If Greinke pitches on par this year with what he's done the previous 2, i'd say it's a given he could do better then the 3/71 he'd have left on the table. 
 
Extra 3 million bonus if he is traded too. On a $26m one year rental, with the potential to screw you over if a less then ideal scenario plays itself out, you'd have to think both the willing suitors and expected return would be somewhat limited. At least to an extent that wouldn't see any farms being sold. 

 

[mBiferi]

While I do agree that it's very likely that Greinke opts out, are we really sure about it? I mean, the guy has been stable in LA for the last few years and considering his past issues, that might be worth more to him that the extra millions he could get in the open market. OTOH, is signing Lester a smart decision from the Dodger's point of view? If they sign him, he'll be 31 when his 6/150ish deal starts... is that better value that working out an extension with Greinke at 5/100 or so? Even re-signing him in the offseason, I don't think he'll get near Lester's (total) money.

 

[jasvlm]

Stop. His overall body of experience at the major league level is still limited, but he carries a negative uzr/150.  He's been not laying off the low and away stuff for a bunch of years now.  His wRC+ was 44 last year.  He's had two years at the ML level only because the team was thin at his position and obviously wanted to give him every opportunity to get himself back on track, which failed miserably.  Could he "find it" at some point?  Sure.  But no one is giving up anything of value to find out.

I don't believe he's the primary piece in the deal by any stretch, so he wouldn't have to carry much to be included in a deal like this.  Getting Cespedes, a near major league ready pitching prospect and a ss piece (probably Marrero) isn't a terrible return for someone like Cashner, and a throw in like Middlebrooks helps get it done.  Is that enough?  maybe, maybe not.  I don't ascribe a whole lot of value to Middlebrooks, nor do I suggest that they are building a deal around him.  

 

[Corsi]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  8s8 seconds ago
Sources: #Tigers drawing strong interest in Price, Porcello. Both entering FA years, as are Zimmermann, Samardzija, etc. All still in play.
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  3s3 seconds ago
Unclear what #Tigers would require for either Price or Porcello. Price projected arb number is $18.9M, per @mlbtraderumors, Porcello $12.2M.

 

[Devizier]

I never saw Cespedes returning Porcello, who has been significantly undervalued here.

 
I agree with the latter, but projections have Cespedes performing a little better than Porcello next year (by fWAR at least) and that passes with eye test with me. At the very least, you can argue that the players are both in the second tier (good but not great) at their respective positions. 

 

[jimbobim]

Alright my last floated trade was an abomination because some people love Daniel Nava and others don't. 
 
I'm going to operate as if the Sox lose out on the Lester bidding war and then are faced with finding 2 maybe 3 pitchers via trade or singing 
 
Ideally the Sox would open up 2015 with Kelly and Clay as their 4 and 5 so here we go 
 
Tigers - 
Owens - D. Smiley replacement who ended up being the anchor for that Price deal
Workman - adresses a bullpen need or back end starter controllable
Cespedes/ Nava - whichever they value higher as they have been reported interested in OF 
 
Red Sox 
A. Sanchez - Solid number 2 starter under control. Plus Cherington could just open the presser by saying well guys we decided to turn back the clock all the way on the original Hanley deal. ( In fact if lester signed it would be a hat trick of former Sea Dogs I believe with Sanchez and Lester leading the rotation.) 
 
Padres 
Brock Holt/ Alan Craig- whichever they like SD would probably take the risk Craig gets to elite again  
Cespedes/Nava- again whichever one doesn't go to the Tigers
Bradley- roaming that CF is maybe one of the ways a team could maximize his GG justify batting him 9th to see if that bat comes alive again. 
Brian Johnson - rotation piece under control. 
De La Rosa- Him and Johnson could both step in to the SD rotation and if I included both I'd have to remember De La Rosa could end up in the pen. I love his upside.
 
WMB- junk throw in if they want him 
 
Red Sox 
Tyson Ross 27- just became arb eligible this year buying high on him to be my 3rd starter for a while under control. 
 
W/ Lester it's filthy 
1) Lester
2) Sanchez 
3) Ross 
4) Kelly 
5) Buch
 
W/o Lester 
1) Sanchez 
2) Ross 
3) FA Acquisition ( Maeda, McCarthy, Santanna, etc) 
4) Kelly 
5) Buch 
 
The reason I'm willing to pretty much empty the farm of young guns is I keep the highest proj one Ed Rod and get controllable very high upside guys in return. Curious to see what you guys think. Owens, Workman, De La Rosa, and Brian Johnson... Wow just realized that's about an entire AAA rotation right now could be haunting but I don't think the Red Sox can be patient enough to let them develop and the attrition rate on young pitches is very high.... 
 
EDIT to throw some more uncertainty but awesomeness is this 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-emergence-of-tyson-ross/
 
He throws a ton of sliders but has become ace quality since doing so... very intriguing 

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Alright my last floated trade was an abomination because some people love Daniel Nava and others don't. 
 
I'm going to operate as if the Sox lose out on the Lester bidding war and then are faced with finding 2 maybe 3 pitchers via trade or singing 
 
Ideally the Sox would open up 2015 with Kelly and Clay as their 4 and 5 so here we go 
 
Tigers - 
Owens - D. Smiley replacement who ended up being the anchor for that Price deal
Workman - adresses a bullpen need or back end starter controllable
Cespedes/ Nava - whichever they value higher as they have been reported interested in OF 
 
Red Sox 
A. Sanchez - Solid number 2 starter under control. Plus Cherington could just open the presser by saying well guys we decided to turn back the clock all the way on the original Hanley deal. ( In fact if lester signed it would be a hat trick of former Sea Dogs I believe with Sanchez and Lester leading the rotation.) 
 
Padres 
Brock Holt/ Alan Craig- whichever they like SD would probably take the risk Craig gets to elite again  
Cespedes/Nava- again whichever one doesn't go to the Tigers
Bradley- roaming that CF is maybe one of the ways a team could maximize his GG justify batting him 9th to see if that bat comes alive again. 
Brian Johnson - rotation piece under control. 
De La Rosa- Him and Johnson could both step in to the SD rotation and if I included both I'd have to remember De La Rosa could end up in the pen. I love his upside.
 
WMB- junk throw in if they want him 
 
Red Sox 
Tyson Ross 27- just became arb eligible this year buying high on him to be my 3rd starter for a while under control. 
 
W/ Lester it's filthy 
1) Lester
2) Sanchez 
3) Ross 
4) Kelly 
5) Buch
 
W/o Lester 
1) Sanchez 
2) Ross 
3) FA Acquisition ( Maeda, McCarthy, Santanna, etc) 
4) Kelly 
5) Buch 
 
The reason I'm willing to pretty much empty the farm of young guns is I keep the highest proj one Ed Rod and get controllable very high upside guys in return. Curious to see what you guys think. Owens, Workman, De La Rosa, and Brian Johnson... Wow just realized that's about an entire AAA rotation right now could be haunting but I don't think the Red Sox can be patient enough to let them develop and the attrition rate on young pitches is very high.... 
 
EDIT to throw some more uncertainty but awesomeness is this 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-emergence-of-tyson-ross/
 
He throws a ton of sliders but has become ace quality since doing so... very intriguing 

It's pretty sad when they'd have their pitcher batting ahead of him in the lineup

 

[soxhop411]

The Red Sox's master plan, according to industry sources, is to add one starting pitcher via free agency and one via trade. And they have plenty of outfielders to deal. Of course, who knows how things will work out in the end?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2288720-early-signs-point-to-winter-action-sparking-another-red-sox-resurrection

 

[Cesar Crespo]

While I do agree that it's very likely that Greinke opts out, are we really sure about it? I mean, the guy has been stable in LA for the last few years and considering his past issues, that might be worth more to him that the extra millions he could get in the open market. OTOH, is signing Lester a smart decision from the Dodger's point of view? If they sign him, he'll be 31 when his 6/150ish deal starts... is that better value that working out an extension with Greinke at 5/100 or so? Even re-signing him in the offseason, I don't think he'll get near Lester's (total) money.

It would be Lester at 6/150 + talent returning in trade or 1st rounder vs. 5/100 for Greinke. It really depends what they can get for Greinke.

It's like the Sox signing Hanley to trade Cespedes.

 

[koufax37]

That may be the type of gamble the Padres need to take, but they sure as shit take that type of gamble on someone other than Middlebrooks. He's far removed from that guy who hit three shots in Toronto.

The Padres want to gamble? Sign Lester and Scherzer and trade the rest of their starters for hitters.

 
Cashner is pretty popular around here and is also pretty good at pitching.  I like him a lot, but I don't think Lars Anderson and Casey Fossum gets it done.  I also think that Cespedes's primary skill would be diminished in a homer suppressing environment, and is much more valuable if dealt to a team with a hitter's park (Reds, Astros, etc). 
 
I also don't think that Preller is interested in gambling in his first year under a relatively new ownership group.  I think if he trades he is interested in stocking the system, and it will be very difficult to pry Ross or Cashner away.  But it doesn't hurt to talk and push and see what the options might be.

 

[jasvlm]

I just hope that BC is engaging the Padres front office, because Preller is going to be making moves.  Cashner and Ross are both nice pieces, and their value is probably peaking at the moment.  With the Padres lacking a significant core of talent, what other assets do they have to refurbish their franchise?  They've been rumored to be talking Kemp with the Dodgers in a deal where they give up Grandal.  How hard would it be to imagine them trading one of their pitching assets to further restock the franchise?

 

[GaryPeters71]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  22m22 minutes ago
"If Red Sox don't land Lester they'll go after Dallas Keuchel hard and HOU will make it painful." Non-Sox Baseball ops man to me, 5 mins ago
 
 
>> 26-year-old lefty. 12-9 with 2.93 ERA last year. 1.175 WHIP. 5.1 WAR.
 

 

[nvalvo]

 
Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  22m22 minutes ago
"If Red Sox don't land Lester they'll go after Dallas Keuchel hard and HOU will make it painful." Non-Sox Baseball ops man to me, 5 mins ago
 
 
>> 26-year-old lefty. 12-9 with 2.93 ERA last year. 1.175 WHIP. 5.1 WAR.
 
 

 
Doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, but sported a 3+ GO/AO ratio in 2014.

 

[grimshaw]

It seems like he came out of nowhere and had nothing at any level like last year.  I'd put him a little below Tyson Ross category based on his service time and having less of a track record, if he's actually available.  Not sure he's worth a top guy like Owens yet but I'd pony up multiple guys .

 

[GaryPeters71]

It seems like he came out of nowhere and had nothing at any level like last year.  I'd put him a little below Tyson Ross category based on his service time and having less of a track record, if he's actually available.  Not sure he's worth a top guy like Owens yet but I'd pony up multiple guys .

A few more encouraging signs Dallas Keuchel - Winning record with crummy team, 200 innings pitched, 5 complete games.

 

[foulkehampshire]

A few more encouraging signs Dallas Keuchel - Winning record with crummy team, 200 innings pitched, 5 complete games.

 
Not really a hard thrower, but he generates ground balls like crazy. LHP, which is very much needed in the rotation. I approve.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

 
Not really a hard thrower, but he generates ground balls like crazy. LHP, which is very much needed in the rotation. I approve.

 
Like this guy.  xFIP in the mid to low 3's in his first 2 years with HOU according to Fangraphs.  Steamer projects similar outcomes as 2014.  If he doesn't cost the big 4 then I think this is an intriguing option.  I guess Owens might be what it takes to get him though.  My concern is that I am not sure he'll be much better overall then the AAAA guys we have stockpiled over the last few years.

 

[Devizier]

Kuechel is the reigning ground ball king. I'm guessing the Sox are pretty confident in their infield defense.

 

[Carmen Fanzone]

Does the Shane Greene acquisition by the Tigers make a Cespedes-Porcello deal more likely?

 

[Drek717]

 
Like this guy.  xFIP in the mid to low 3's in his first 2 years with HOU according to Fangraphs.  Steamer projects similar outcomes as 2014.  If he doesn't cost the big 4 then I think this is an intriguing option.  I guess Owens might be what it takes to get him though.  My concern is that I am not sure he'll be much better overall then the AAAA guys we have stockpiled over the last few years.

He had a 5.12 xFIP his first year, 3.58 his second, but paired them with 5.74 and 4.25 FIPs respectively.  His mL track record is worse than pretty much all the RH guys we'd be looking to replace with him.  If acquiring him is going to "hurt" I'd spare the pain and just start one of the younger guys.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

He had a 5.12 xFIP his first year, 3.58 his second, but paired them with 5.74 and 4.25 FIPs respectively.  His mL track record is worse than pretty much all the RH guys we'd be looking to replace with him.  If acquiring him is going to "hurt" I'd spare the pain and just start one of the younger guys.

 
Sorry missed his rookie season of 2012.  I meant 2013 and 2014 which I thought were his first 2 years.  Over these the xFIP numbers I posted are correct.  His left handedness is a strong reason to see what it will take, but I agree... I don't think I'd even go as high as offering Owens.

 

[Corsi]

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi  9s9 seconds ago
Asked a number of sources about long-speculated Porcello for Cespedes match. At this point, no indication that serious talks occurring.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Keuchel is your classic soft-tossing lefty: sits around 90, touches 93. Sinker-slider guy who also throws a lot of changeups, and sneaks in the occasional cutter. Has a 4-seamer but doesn't use it that much. Used to throw a curve but has pretty much given it up. The slider is on the soft side--it sits just over 80, same as his change.
 
He's interesting, but I wouldn't give up as much for him as I suspect Houston will want. Considering that he isn't even arb-eligible till 2016, the only reason Houston could be interested in trading him now is to sell high based on his 2014.

 

[curly2]

It's amazing how the game has changed when a "soft-tossing lefty" sits at 90 and touches 93. 

 

[GaryPeters71]

 
Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi  9s9 seconds ago
Asked a number of sources about long-speculated Porcello for Cespedes match. At this point, no indication that serious talks occurring.
 

Hmmmm.....then who is BC talking to? I guess SD is a possible landing spot as well as Cincy and BAL (if they'll trade within division).

 

[foulkehampshire]

It's amazing how the game has changed when a "soft-tossing lefty" sits at 90 and touches 93. 

 
It's not soft tossing. It's about average-good. League average 4-seam velocity for a LH SP was 90.39 according to http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com. 
 
They don't have the league averages up for easy access for 2014. You'd have to look at an individual player's pitch type to get current league averages. 
 
http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/282332/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=5%2F1%2F2014&to=12%2F4%2F2014  - scroll over "velocity" types.

 

[Doctor G]

Keuchel is your classic soft-tossing lefty: sits around 90, touches 93. Sinker-slider guy who also throws a lot of changeups, and sneaks in the occasional cutter. Has a 4-seamer but doesn't use it that much. Used to throw a curve but has pretty much given it up. The slider is on the soft side--it sits just over 80, same as his change.
 
He's interesting, but I wouldn't give up as much for him as I suspect Houston will want. Considering that he isn't even arb-eligible till 2016, the only reason Houston could be interested in trading him now is to sell high based on his 2014.

Maybe a package that starts with Brock Holt might be appealing to sell tickets for Astros

 

[sean1562]

Maybe a package that starts with Brock Holt might be appealing to sell tickets for Astros

i cant tell if this is a serious post. Brock Holt has almost no value on the trade market. he is not gonna be a centerpiece in a deal for a cost controlled 26 year old pitcher. i apologize if this was meant as a joke

 

[Yaz4Ever]

It's amazing how the game has changed when a "soft-tossing lefty" sits at 90 and touches 93. 

I was thinking exactly the same thing

 

[grimshaw]

i cant tell if this is a serious post. Brock Holt has almost no value on the trade market. he is not gonna be a centerpiece in a deal for a cost controlled 26 year old pitcher. i apologize if this was meant as a joke

Centerpiece - no definitely not.  But he has trade value.  He was a 26 year old 2 WAR league average hitter who can play virtually anywhere.
He's perfect for a small market team who is rebuilding.  I bet he's worth a good bullpen arm.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
It's not soft tossing. It's about average-good. League average 4-seam velocity for a LH SP was 90.39 according to http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com. 
 
They don't have the league averages up for easy access for 2014. You'd have to look at an individual player's pitch type to get current league averages. 
 
http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/282332/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=5%2F1%2F2014&to=12%2F4%2F2014  - scroll over "velocity" types.

 
That's interesting. FG doesn't break it down by handedness, but by their numbers the average 4-seamer was at 92.1 last year. From the texasleaguers numbers, it does look like LHPs run about 2 mph behind RHPs--which may, of course, be precisely because "soft-tossing lefty" is a more viable ML job description than "soft-tossing righty", but still, looks like Keuchel is probably about average as lefties go.
 
So "soft-tossing" was stretching the point, you're right. Let's just say he's not a hard thrower.

 

[Doctor G]

i cant tell if this is a serious post. Brock Holt has almost no value on the trade market. he is not gonna be a centerpiece in a deal for a cost controlled 26 year old pitcher. i apologize if this was meant as a joke

I didn't mean centerpiece. I was just suggesting he might have value to Houston in that he is a local kid.Packaged with Mujica and a prospect might work