No. Switching him to a starter would be a fiasco, imho. I'd love him as a closer, though.grimshaw said:
Trading for Starting Pitching
- Thread starter ivanvamp
- Start date
yes. Semien is certainly no superstar, but he had some value (.6 WAR on fangraphs) as a 23 year old in 2014 (turned 24 in September), and Steamer projects him for 1.9 WAR in 2015. That is just below the projection for Kolten Wong (2.0 WAR) and Wong will also be 24 next year. seems possible Beane sees potential hereDanny_Darwin said:
edit: and Marrero and Semien are almost exactly the same age…Marrero's a few weeks older
Carson Cistulli further observed on Fangraphs in September that: "In each of the past two seasons, Chicago White Sox rookie infielder Marcus Semien has recorded among the most impressive walk and strikeout rates in the high minors." of course, as Cistulli writes, Semien hasn't translated that approach to the majors in any way (yet) but not surprising if the A's see this as promising
Any GM that feels he needs to explain moves to the masses beyond I got the best player available in a position of need, doesn't deserve his job. Any baseball fan knows that trading a veteran for a prospect is a gamble on both sides. The team getting the vet gambles that they are near the peak of the cycle and the vet won't break down prior to maxing out their cycle and possibly winning a championship. The team getting the prospects is gambling that they are getting ready to rise in the cycle or are on the other side of the peak and and the prospect will reach their potential either at the right time or be able to be flipped for further younger talent or the right talent.Plympton91 said:
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi 4s5 seconds ago
#RedSox and #Reds have discussed deal that would send Yoenis Cespedes to Cincinnati, but there's been no recent progress, sources say.
#RedSox and #Reds have discussed deal that would send Yoenis Cespedes to Cincinnati, but there's been no recent progress, sources say.
I would be very interested to see how Billy Beane would view a Betts for Sonny Grey deal. Could solve problems for both teams. Grey is the type of player it's acceptable to deal Betts for.soxhop411 said:
I was wondering about a potential Boegarts for Grey deal since the A's were looking for a shortstop and would value Boegart's youth and affordability, but that seems less likely now after their deal with the White Sox.Tyrone Biggums said:
Oh, the whale's dead in the water following the actual trade -- my point was based on the reported inclusion of current pieces like Alexei Ramirez when the Shark deal was first floated.Snodgrass'Muff said:
I'd quibble on the definition of GFIN (the Robertson, LaRoche and Duke deals plus the Samardzija trade indicate that at the very least looking to be a lot more competitive over a 1-2 year window) but that's semantics, and I think they'd still be happy to upgrade on Viciedo and Flowers; but given that they acquired Shark without creating any new holes, I don't think there's any chance they move Sale.
@Ken_Rosenthal: Sources: Clubs keep asking about Cueto. #Reds steer talk to Latos, Leake, Simon. Listening on Cueto, though. Would bring biggest return.
soxhop411 said:
Assuming that's true, it implies that Cespedes is potentially part of a package for a SP with a large salary. (And the Sox prefer Lester to fill that SP slot, but can't afford both.)
Sox and Rocks said:
For Gray you guys are nuts.. He's a small frame pitcher at 5'11 Durability issues would be a concern at some point. Plus, The Sox should learn a lesson, last time it was Reddick for Bailey, how did that work out?
Perhaps it has been floated, but since the Reds are marketing a starter and Chapman, could the Red Sox put Cespedes, Owens and perhaps Coyle into a deal to get Latos and Chapman? I would prefer Cueto, but I think the Reds have to listen if the Red Sox would put those 3 into the hat in a deal that sheds payroll for them but still gives them major league ready players. If it is truly a payroll move, Cespedes might be best left out of the deal, and Owens and Coyle could headline a deal with an Ofer like Nava instead.
Just spitballing...
Just spitballing...
No chance. Chapman is going to make close to 20 mil in arbitration over the next 2 seasons. The Reds, if they are truly in payroll cutting mode, are unlikely to be able to afford that luxury at the closer position. Owens alone being included in the deal should be enough to have Chapman coming back, and the other pieces are probably enough to get one of the rental starters. It depends on how one views Owens, but he's a top 20 pitching prospect in all of baseball who has reached AAA and has been completely healthy his entire career. If 1 year of Latos and 2 years of Chapman (both being paid about what they'll earn in terms of WAR) are the return for 6 years of Owens and other tasty morsels, I think the Reds would be crazy NOT to move on an offer like that.
I agree with MakMan. Owens may flame out like a thousand other pitching prospects that looked like they would be mid-rotation guys. Chapman is up there as one of the greatest RP in history. 17.67 K/9? That's INSANE. What if Owens doesn't make it and that's all Jocketty got in a trade for one of the greatest RP ever to pitch? xFIP last 3 years for Aroldis: 1.20, 2.07, 1.93. You're not getting him for Owens, Coyle & 1 year of Cespedes. Maybe that's close but if I'm Jocketty, I'm holding out for a King's Ransom.jasvlm said:
I like Owens as much as the next guy here but I have watched so many pitchers with equal or greater futures than Owens take a big dump on the big stage and never have much of a career. Chapman put up 2.7 WAR last year. Wow. I honestly don't know what it would take but Owens alone wouldn't do it because of the high chance he never amounts to anything. Just take a look at a top 100 list from 4 or 5 years ago and look at all the guys that flamed out. It's a shit ton.
EDIT: Maybe WAR isn't the best way to compare RP but here it is: Last 3 years - Aroldis - 7.6WAR, DRobertson - 5WAR (about same amount of IP).
whaaaat
Peter Gammons @pgammo 25s25 seconds ago
Always thought Scherzer would go back to Detroit, but one Tiger official says "not happening," but might do Porcello for Cespedes & DeLarosa
Peter Gammons @pgammo 25s25 seconds ago
Always thought Scherzer would go back to Detroit, but one Tiger official says "not happening," but might do Porcello for Cespedes & DeLarosa
lol typical gammons
Peter Gammons @pgammo 2m2 minutes ago
Always thought Scherzer would go back to Detroit, but one Tiger official says "not happening," but might do Porcello for Cespedes & DeLarosa
or other depth arms. Porcello and his Father are building a house in Vermont and would love to go to Boston
Peter Gammons @pgammo 2m2 minutes ago
Always thought Scherzer would go back to Detroit, but one Tiger official says "not happening," but might do Porcello for Cespedes & DeLarosa
or other depth arms. Porcello and his Father are building a house in Vermont and would love to go to Boston
I hear you that Chapman is dominant. Nobody will argue that. The value of a win above replacement in this market is about 6.5 mi. Chapman is worth 2.5 wins/season by the calculation you quote above-that's maybe 15 mil/year. Over 2 seasons (the years of arb he's got left), he'll be worth 30-35 mil in on field value. He'll make 9 this year in arbitration, and closer to 14 the next year. That would make his value above the money he'll earn about 7-12 mil. That's not insignificant, but if the projections on Owens (or whatever pitching prospect the Reds prefer-maybe they like ERod better, or perhaps they'd want 2 of Webster/Raunado/RDLR/Barnes instead) are close to accurate, Owens will return more value above the level of what he'll be paid during that same period of time, and that doesn't account for what the other pieces in the deal might be worth.
Price got traded for Smyly, Franklin and Adames. He had 2 years of control left at a reasonable salary. Is Chapman that much different? I think when a team is forced to move payroll (like the Rays had to), they probably end up taking a little less than what they might be able to get for an asset if money weren't such a factor. That's the reality.
I don't disagree that Owens (or any prospect pitcher) is a risky commodity, but I stand by my position that a deal built around a guy like Owens and 2 other pieces (maybe someone like Coyle with another non top 3 prospect (not Betts/Swihart/ERod) gets Chapman and a 1 year rental from the Reds. Not Cueto, but whomever the Sox like next best.
Price got traded for Smyly, Franklin and Adames. He had 2 years of control left at a reasonable salary. Is Chapman that much different? I think when a team is forced to move payroll (like the Rays had to), they probably end up taking a little less than what they might be able to get for an asset if money weren't such a factor. That's the reality.
I don't disagree that Owens (or any prospect pitcher) is a risky commodity, but I stand by my position that a deal built around a guy like Owens and 2 other pieces (maybe someone like Coyle with another non top 3 prospect (not Betts/Swihart/ERod) gets Chapman and a 1 year rental from the Reds. Not Cueto, but whomever the Sox like next best.
Other than Price being a SP, as opposed to a closer, and that Price didn't have "2 years of control left" ... they're pretty much the same, yes.
When Price was traded, he was on a 1 year deal for 14 mil. In arb this year, he could earn as much as 17 mil, his final year before being eligible to become a free agent. I made the comment that Price and Chapman were comparable in terms of their salary situations, their on field value and being on teams that needed to cut payroll (the Rays with Price, the Reds with Chapman). In fact, Price is worth more in on field WAR (a total of 7.6 over the past 2 seasons), though he was also projected to earn more than Chapman during the period of trade concern-31 mil. Still, Price was likely worth more than Chapman by the measure of on field WAR vs. salary paid at the time of the deal, and that package that the Rays received isn't overwhelming at all. That's the point I was making.
Wondering if the openness of the Tiger exec that Gammo quoted indicates Porcello is not their target? Rare for an exec to speak so frankly about a target they are near to a deal with. I'm taking that to mean Cespedes, likely in a package, will be returning greater than Porcello. Cool!
I see Webster and RDLR as pretty interchangeable, with Webster having a long-term health advantage. Webster's final 3 starts were very promising, with the suddenly improved control (10-3 K/BB ratio). In addition, Steven Wright is the forgotten man in all these discussions, but he should be considered a legitimate option for the #5 spot in the rotation as well. He outperformed all of the other competitors in Pawtucket, and then had 24 very nice innings at the major league level in September.Rudy Pemberton said:
Porcello is a legitimate #3, which is something this team desperately needs.
j-man said:
Shields is going to get something closer to 5/$100-110M. Shields for 4/$60M is an utter fantasy. At that money and a 5 year commitment, I have almost no interest in Shields. I'm not generally a believer in clutch players, but Shields has pretty consistently come up small in big games and playoff games, plus he's always been pretty crappy in Fenway pitching as a visitor (5.42 ERA in 74 2/3 innings over 13 starts).
Furthermore Masterson is going to want a 1 year deal to re-establish himself and get back into the market next offseason.
Ultimately I still think the best solution is for Lester to end up back in a Red Sox uniform, even if it means a 7th year commitment (though I'd prefer to see 6 years guaranteed with a vesting 7th year option). maybe something like $6/150 with a $5M buyout on a vesting $20M 7th year?
I don't want to make any snap judgements on the young pitchers based on how they pitched down the stretch, but I would like to believe that of RLDR, Webster, Barnes, Raunado, and even Wright, that we've got a starter who can at least begin the year in the major league rotation as the #5, with the other fellows in AAA (or in long relief in the majors). Guys like Owens, Johnson and ERod will also likely get auditions during the season, but my guess is that the Sox have already identified the guys they want to hold and those they will be willing to trade, and if a deal such as Cespedes plus one of the young arms nets them a solid rotation upgrade for 2015, even on a 1 year deal, I think they'd do it. Now, the line can be drawn in a number of places, but Porcello is pretty close to that line in terms of his likely performance in 2015. I'd prefer Cueto and a host of others, but they aren't likely available at that offer level. I'm sure BC is working the phones to come up with the best return for a package of Cespedes or Cespedes plus one of the young starters, and perhaps Porcello is the best they can do. Maybe Kennedy should be in that discussion as well.
A rumor that every starting pitcher with the Padres, including Jess Hahn, is on the trade bloc:
Hahn was terrific in his first go-round in the majors last season, holding a 3.07 ERA while striking out 70 over 73 1/3 innings. He's under team control for many more years, so the cost wouldn't be cheap. The Padres are also shopping Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy and Tyson Ross.
Ball park effects aside, the Padres would prefer to unload Kennedy but the Sox should pursue Cashner, Ross and Hahn. These are the kinds of pitchers who should be targets rather than some of the bigger names mentioned out there.
Hahn was terrific in his first go-round in the majors last season, holding a 3.07 ERA while striking out 70 over 73 1/3 innings. He's under team control for many more years, so the cost wouldn't be cheap. The Padres are also shopping Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy and Tyson Ross.
Ball park effects aside, the Padres would prefer to unload Kennedy but the Sox should pursue Cashner, Ross and Hahn. These are the kinds of pitchers who should be targets rather than some of the bigger names mentioned out there.
Maybe I'm missing something. Can someone make a case for Wade Miley? Positive: 28, 200 innings each of last 2 years, 8.2K/9 innings last year; lefthanded. Negatives: High ERA for NL pitcher (4.34 last year: 3.79 for career), 1.401 WHIP last year. Is he at best a 4 or 5?RedOctober3829 said:
GaryPeters71 said:
LHP with good velocity. Groundball tendencies. Much, much better pitcher away from Chase Field, which is a launching pad.
Good candidate for a rebound; xFIP at 3.50 in 2014. Numbers inflated by a terrible 13.9 HR/FB rate.
I think he's worth about McCarthy value wise and he's 3 years younger. Miley has a better xFip, and a higher groundball percentage (48 to 43%).GaryPeters71 said:
They both had a 4.5 WAR year and a few middling/ineffective seasons. The difference is that Miley trended downwards last year, and McCarthy markedly turned it on.
I don't know if groundball pitchers with advanced shifts is a new inefficiency, but the Red Sox seem to be interested in guys like Porcello, and McCarthy who induce a ton of them. Fister's in that group too, but I haven't heard of their interest in him yet.
What do you guys think it would take to get Doug Fister? Ive always liked the guy, and I highly doubt the Nats would be willing to give him the $ he will want to be their #3...only one year left until he's a FA. He's pitched well in the AL before, and I feel like, given his career trajectory, we COULD sign to a deal not too dissimilar to the original Lester deal, an additional 4 for 70...maybe add a 5th year and go 5/90....
And yes, I think he is worth that.
And yes, I think he is worth that.
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 36s37 seconds ago
Among top current possibilities for #RedSox: #DBacks’ Miley. Reported last night with @jonmorosi that teams are talking. #Marlins in, too.
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 35s36 seconds ago
#Red Sox not currently close on #Phillies’ Hamels, sources say. Could trade for Miley and one of five-plus pitchers. Shields also FA option.
Among top current possibilities for #RedSox: #DBacks’ Miley. Reported last night with @jonmorosi that teams are talking. #Marlins in, too.
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 35s36 seconds ago
#Red Sox not currently close on #Phillies’ Hamels, sources say. Could trade for Miley and one of five-plus pitchers. Shields also FA option.
Miley would be ok because he's relatively cheap and controllable and provides more certainty than the prospects do, but you only need so many of those #4 SP types, and we already have Kelly. His walks are trending poorly, increasing the risk that he'll give you no more than what RDLR and Webster might reasonably be expected to provide, and at a higher cost. So I'm not sure I really see the point, unless, for example, San Diego has said they'd like him (or Kelly) in a Ross or Cashner deal. IOW, get him as a piece for a bigger deal.
grimshaw said:
That GB% comparison is a bit misleading, because it obscures the fact that McCarthy has reinvented himself pretty radically as a GB pitcher over the past few years. His GB percentages for his first five seasons hovered between 24 and 39; over the past four years they've been 46, 40, 48, 52. So I don't think that's a significant differentiator.
Question for somebody smarter than me: if any of these pitchers with 1 year left gets traded before the season, does that team that acquires him still have the opportunity to extend the player a QO?
As far as I understand it, yes they could be made qualifying offers. Once the season starts that changes.
Heise3B said:
Why exactly? Cueto will be a FA a year from now and we have to repeat the process all over again, sans Owens.
I'd package Owens + some second tier prospects for Hamels in a cocaine heartbeat. Unfortunately, they're asking for more which is unreasonable considering Hamel's contract situation.