Trading Jon Lester (news and speculation thread)

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TomRicardo

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Tyrone Biggums said:
If the Cardinals offer Oscar Tavares they win. I don't care if the Dodgers offer both Joc and Seager. He's that good of a prospect.
 
Eh, I rather Joc and Seager.  Pederson is a much better fielder than Tavares and has a ton more plate discipline.  Much better suited for RF than Tavares is for Fenway.  Less power and average, more OBP and SB.
 

YouDownWithOBP?

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nattysez said:
 
Can you explain a bit?  Bell just got promoted to AA and is ranked in the 70s on both the Baseball Prospectus and MLB lists.  Taillon is coming off TJ surgery.  They are not exactly lottery tickets, but those guys also don't strike me as super-strong prospects.  Am I badly underrating them, or am I overrating what the Sox can reasonably expect to receive for Lester? 
 
Bell is # 33 on mlb.com's mid season rankings, which came out just a couple days ago
 

Tyrone Biggums

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nattysez said:
 
Can you explain a bit?  Bell just got promoted to AA and is ranked in the 70s on both the Baseball Prospectus and MLB lists.  Taillon is coming off TJ surgery.  They are not exactly lottery tickets, but those guys also don't strike me as super-strong prospects.  Am I badly underrating them, or am I overrating what the Sox can reasonably expect to receive for Lester? 
Tallion was looked at as one of if not the top pitching prospect in baseball. Bell has a ton of potential and could come right up and be an upgrade. He's not as far away as people think. Never under estimate a fan base that NEEDS to win a title. It's been too long.
 

nattysez

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Thanks for the information, guys.  For those who rely on Baseball Ref to the extent I do -- Baseball Ref apparently does not update minor leaguers' pages with mid-season player ratings, so I was relying on badly out-of-date info.
 

bosockboy

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Sox play in Pittsburgh in a few weeks too....heading there for the series.  The Bucs would be a great short term result, long term there's no chance they resign him and he ends up in pinstripes.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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bosockboy said:
Sox play in Pittsburgh in a few weeks too....heading there for the series.  The Bucs would be a great short term result, long term there's no chance they resign him and he ends up in pinstripes.
I wouldn't hate him going to Pittsburgh at all. That would be a great result as I really like the makeup of that club.
 

sodenj5

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Is Bell largely considered a better prospect than Meadows? Bell is seemingly much closer, but would Meadows be the better long term get?
 

MakMan44

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bosockboy said:
Pittsburgh is interested in Miller also.  Lester/Miller for Bell/Taillon is a really interesting possibility.
I think it would take more on our side but it's an interesting start, I agree. 
 

ivanvamp

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glennhoffmania said:
 
Well those people were stupid.
 
Look if Lester is gone I'm not going to lose any sleep.  My concern is over the process, not the player.  If this is how the FO will continue to view top pitchers going forward I question their strategy.  Now I'm just an idiot sitting in front of a computer at work bitching about this shit and presumably these guys know a lot more than me.  But some things seem pretty obvious from the outside looking in:
 
-Don't massively overpay for non-elite talent, like Ellsbury
-Don't rape your farm system in panic moves, like Bagwell
-Don't rely solely on your system and a bunch of sub-30 year olds and short-term FA reclamation projects to win titles
 
When you're a team that can afford to spend close to $200m on payroll, these rules should be pretty easy to follow.  Letting Lester walk and signing Scherzer would be stupid.  Letting Lester walk and putting together a 2015 rotation of Lackey, Buchholz, RDLR, Workman and Webster would be stupid.  So what's the solution?
 
In my mind, it's easy.  Sign Lester.  He's been terrific for almost all of his career.  He wants to be here (by all accounts).  The Sox can afford what it will take to sign him.  
 
However, if they don't sign him, trade him for the best package you can get (which should be pretty nice) and then sign Shields to a lower contract in the offseason.  Nearly as good a pitcher, at a lower price, PLUS you get whatever you can get for Lester.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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sodenj5 said:
Is Bell largely considered a better prospect than Meadows? Bell is seemingly much closer, but would Meadows be the better long term get?
Bell is looked at as a higher ceiling in terms of power development.
 

Fred in Lynn

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
 
Because he doesn't know what his market is until he gets there. He has a rough idea, but if he's not going back to Boston, why would he forgo the opportunity to either decide himself where he goes or to make absolute top dollar? 
UnfrozenCavemanGrebeck said:
Furthermore, if he's able to get another WS ring wherever he goes for the next 3 months that can only increase his demand.
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
Plus, who knows whether he wants to play out the rest of the career with the team that trades for him.  Does he want to spend the next six years in Toronto?  Baltimore?  Maybe, maybe not.
 
I don't see Lester as having much incentive to sign a new contract midseason with whichever team acquires him just because an approximately market-value deal is waived in his face.  All he really gets is protection against injury for about 10 starts and he gives up a lot in terms of expected dollars as well as control over his future.
It was a rhetorical question. Jon Lester could just as well end up signing an extension wherever he goes, feeling 1) he really likes it there, and 2) they're offering me close enough to what I might get on the free agent market for me to take it rather than have it pulled, forcing me to do the relocation shuffle all over again. What you guys should have picked apart was my suggestion that a team may ask for a window in which to negotiate an extension. Given that we are south of 60 hours until the deadline and the number of players supposedly in this market, there's little incentive for the Sox to wait around on anyone. It's a bittersweet situation.
 

Plympton91

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Or maybe they knew they werent ever going to meet Lester's asking price and simply chose to hang on to him to see if they could make another run for the playoffs. Now that its clear that they aren't going anywhere, they put him on the block to see what he will fetch. If the trade returns aren't sufficient, they stand pat and take the pick.

You may not like what the FO is doing but let's not pretend that they are just making it up as they go along. Its disingenuous and laughable. I laugh in your general direction.
I'm still not sure why you think you have some great insight with this post you've repeated 20 times. Of course you are right that it is one interpretation of events over the past 8 months with Lester. That doesn't make it a smart decision by ownership, it doesn't make it palatable to fans of the team, and it doesn't make it any easier to envision an alternative strategy for achieving competitiveness in 2015 given what's obviously available or for maintaining competitiveness after that if the strategy is to use the great depth in the farm system to convince teams to make players like Stanton available by overpaying.

One interpretation of the strategy you highlight is that they want to lower the payroll commitments as much as possible and sell the team. The value probably can't ever be any higher. A hedge fund guy who wants to maximize profits would be all over that. If so, I wish they'd get on with it. It's been a great ride, but Henry's no spring chicken and it won't last forever anyway.
 

SouthernBoSox

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We are going to get some monster pieces here.

You have to think a high lrvel positional player is most likely with a lower level high ceiling arm as a secondary piece.
 

SouthernBoSox

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ivanvamp

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I think we are all resigned to the notion that Lester is not going to be back with Boston next year.  So trading him makes the most sense.  And I think that the number of teams in on him does mean that there's a good chance the Sox will get a pretty terrific haul here - pieces that they either would love to keep or deal for something else.  
 
Jon, it's been great.  Really, truly great.  You were a stud for this team.  I'm going to miss you.  Thanks for the championships.  Now go help another club do well and bring back to Boston as good a return as possible.
 
(Oh, and re-sign with us when the season is over, please….)
 

TSC

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Do we really need all these tweets being posted that are essentially saying "the Red Sox are likely to trade Jon Lester"?
 
No shit. We don't need a Dan Roche tweet saying that. It adds nothing to the conversation and just clutters up an already almost unreadable thread.
 
If it's previously unreported news, by all means. But otherwise - no one cares how quick you are to post the newest tweet confirming something confirmed by 8 million other confirmations.
 

Curll

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MakMan44 said:
Yeah, neither do I. Doesn't make any sense. 
Sure it does. Lester's side probably just kept saying "Market value" and never gave a figure.
 
The general rule is "whoever gives the first number loses" in a negotiation. The Sox offered $70M? That's a low ball, but a starting point for a counter. Maybe the counter never came.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Plympton91 said:
I'm still not sure why you think you have some great insight with this post you've repeated 20 times. Of course you are right that it is one interpretation of events over the past 8 months with Lester. That doesn't make it a smart decision by ownership, it doesn't make it palatable to fans of the team, and it doesn't make it any easier to envision an alternative strategy for achieving competitiveness in 2015 given what's obviously available or for maintaining competitiveness after that if the strategy is to use the great depth in the farm system to convince teams to make players like Stanton available by overpaying.

One interpretation of the strategy you highlight is that they want to lower the payroll commitments as much as possible and sell the team. The value probably can't ever be any higher. A hedge fund guy who wants to maximize profits would be all over that. If so, I wish they'd get on with it. It's been a great ride, but Henry's no spring chicken and it won't last forever anyway.
I don't claim to have any great insight but nice try. I do have an opinion and given that you feel free to display yours, I feel equally obliged to state mine.

That said, data and history suggest that this ownership doesn't do things on the fly. We may not agree with their decisions and they certainly merit criticism. However accusing them of being wrong and stupid and cheap and mean every time that make a move we don't like seems even more presumptuous than anything I have ever posted. Its suggesting that the poster has even more insight into the business of baseball than a professional MLB front office, albeit with far less information. Remember, anecdotes are not data.
 

MakMan44

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Curll said:
Sure it does. Lester's side probably just kept saying "Market value" and never gave a figure.
 
The general rule is "whoever gives the first number loses" in a negotiation. The Sox offered $70M? That's a low ball, but a starting point for a counter. Maybe the counter never came.
I'm like 90% sure if I dig through the last couple pages there was a tweet that said literally the opposite, that the Sox knew what it would take to get Lester signed and were moving on anyway. 
 

glennhoffmania

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MakMan44 said:
I'm like 90% sure if I dig through the last couple pages there was a tweet that said literally the opposite, that the Sox knew what it would take to get Lester signed and were moving on anyway. 
 
Yup.  And I was dying to know what the number was but I haven't been able to find it.  That doesn't mean Ben doesn't know what it is.
 

Hank Scorpio

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bosockboy said:
When was the last time a prospect acquired in trade went straight to #1 on our prospect rankings?  Could happen here.
 
Marte?
Mookie Betts is the #14 overall prospect according to MLB.com, so that would take some doing.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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thestardawg said:
Bell and Harold Ramirez from the Pirates might be a nice return. Bell is a huge power prospect, and Harold Ramirez is a very promising A Ball OF. 
 
Bell and Taillon is unrealistic, IMO. One prospect in that range is probably about the best they can hope for, plus lottery tickets or lesser prospects who are more advanced. The Red Sox have plenty of mid-range talent on the farm, so someone like Bell should be what they are targeting with Lester. I wouldn't put him quite in the same category as Pederson, but if the best offer they get is Bell and Ramirez, I think that's more than enough to pull the trigger.
 
Also, Meadows is probably a pipe dream. I can't see the Pirates giving up on him so soon after he was drafted. He's barely been with the organization a year. I'd probably take him over Bell even if his ETA is likely a year later, but that might be the draft hound in me breaking through. His ability to cover right field the way Victorino or Drew have in the past is alluring. I'd be surprised if the Pirates didn't also prefer him to Bell, though, so I'm guessing he's not on the table.

FWIW , Sickels had Bell at 37th and Meadows at 51 (right behind Frazier at 50). Taillon is out of the top 75. I know you don't draft for need, but in a situation like this, I think it's justifiable argue the Red Sox should be looking at add bats to the farm with a Lester trade.
 

Grimace-HS

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
Both sides are in full-on pre-emptive spin control mode now, I'm sure. How long before we start hearing about chicken and beer?
 
BTW, much as I hate to lose Lester, I have to admit this is kind of fun.
Agreed....and this is really a pretty unique position that Boston is in.  To have won three World Series championships this decade (and one just last year), and be in the selling position with a top-of-the-rotation left hander can really help retool.  And the fact that Lester seems to be very open to returning, this could be a pivotal few days to set the stage for a long term core (perhaps even more than with the Varitek/Lowe trade).  And Pittsburgh has the young talent (Bell/Taillon/??) to do it; and it is unlikely he'd sign long-term there anyways.
 
It is an odd position for them to have this type of a trading chip, and the next 48 hours could be key to the next 4-6 years. 
 

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Plympton91 said:
I think equally importantly they misjudged how likely it was that he would have one of the best season's of his career.
Well, that doesn't follow. They may have accurately judged the likelihood and gotten burned by an unlikely result.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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foulkehampshire said:
 
I don't believe that at all.
 
Why not?  It was confirmed by Lester's agents.
 
MakMan44 said:
I'm like 90% sure if I dig through the last couple pages there was a tweet that said literally the opposite, that the Sox knew what it would take to get Lester signed and were moving on anyway. 
 
There was a tweet from Peter Abe (I believe) that spoke about years and numbers - it was 5-6 years at $20-22M.  Note this was denied by Lester's agents.
 

SoxFanInPdx

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Something needs to give here. Lester as a rental? At this point, with the Sox appearing more and more likely to not meet whatever number him and his agent are looking for - he ain't coming back this offseason. If Ben made this clear to the Dodgers, I think they'd blink and give one, if not two of Seager/Pederson/Urias. 
 
The Dodgers need to make a deal with the Red Sox more than the Red Sox need to make a deal with the Dodgers. With all that talent and money they have and with no World Series win since 1988, that ownership and fanbase are growing impatient. This may be what gets them over the top. Ben is playing with house money at this point.
 

gammoseditor

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SoxFanInPdx said:
Something needs to give here. Lester as a rental? At this point, with the Sox appearing more and more likely to not meet whatever number him and his agent are looking for - he ain't coming back this offseason. If Ben made this clear to the Dodgers, I think they'd blink and give one, if not two of Seager/Pederson/Urias. 
 
The Dodgers need to make a deal with the Red Sox more than the Red Sox need to make a deal with the Dodgers. With all that talent and money they have and with no World Series win since 1988, that ownership and fanbase are growing impatient. This may be what gets them over the top. Ben is playing with house money at this point.
 
Ben needs to not focus on one team and go to every interested team and make it clear there are 5-8 other teams lining up and there is only one Jon Lester.  He then needs to shop the best offer he gets to the other teams to top it, rinse and repeat until he can't do any better.  He is in the driver's seat here.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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The "rent-a-player" tag, while technically correct, seems particularly inapt for a team like LA.  No WS appearance in 25 years, newish ownership that has gone all in with a bloated $240M payroll, a team currently in line for a playoff run, and multiple top prospects who aren't going to get them to the top this year.  They have a chance to get a guy who was the best postseason pitcher last year and has been a top 5 guy in the AL this year, and the means to sign him long term if they want to go that direction.
 
IMO, these factors will push LA to put one of their top prospects on the table and trump any offer from Pitt or Mil. 
 
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