What do you want Pats to do with #3?

[NextBigThing8184]

Option #2 is riskier and certainly far less proven, but I don't think that it's a given that it's impossible (or a coping mechanism). The Niners keep making it to Super Bowls doing this, as do the Eagles. If you look at the Super Bowl participants and champions of the last 20 years, there are plenty of guys on that list who are not elite QBs. Eli Manning has two rings and a .500 record and 60% career completion percentage.

I don't want to go that route, but we dismiss it as crazy talk too easily IMO.

It’s a lot harder and requires more luck to build a “super team” with a very good/not mega star QB. A whole number of things have to go well over a 5-10 year span to get it to work. And it should also be noted that the examples of “super teams” which have gotten to the Super Bowl are NFC teams who haven’t had to go through a gauntlet of QB’s like the AFC currently has

You need to have above average draft results for a prolonged period of time

Multiple generational or hall of fame caliber players at key positions, sometimes acquired by impossible to predict trades (how often is a generational RB/offensive weapon like McCaffrey or a HOF LT like Williams available for cheap?). Even guys like AJ Brown don’t come along often in trades

Find a very good QB outside of round 1 (less than 5% chance)

Be able to overcome wasted 1st round picks (Trey Lance deal, Eagles taking Reagor and a couple others)

Find elite players in mid/late rounds of the draft (e.g. Kittle)

Have a fairly soft route to the Super Bowl

All that to come up short when going against a true elite QB

NY Giants are kind of an anomaly. As much as people dunk on Eli, he was a good QB capable of playing like an elite QB and had a perfect storm of stuff occurring to get him both those Super Bowl wins.

The idea that it’s easier or less risky to try to build out a roster with enough elite pieces to consistently overcome a significant QB gap just isn’t based in reality.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Is it, though? Seems to me that having so much of your resources tied up in a single player is a riskier proposition. Especially as the guaranteed contracts increase, if you invest so much in one player and he's injured or a bust, you really are in a pickle.

I'm not a Mac Jones fan at all, but I believe there is an alternative universe where the Patriots make some better roster and coaching decisions and the Patriots would have been a playoff team by now.

Unless you’re pulling a Daniel Jones/NYG, you’re not tying up “so much of your resources” in a risky proposition

You get a QB on a rookie contract and only give him a huge 2nd deal if he’s “the guy”

Overpaying mediocre QB is a fools errand. One which a number of teams fall for (Mayfield as an obvious example) but if your team is run by a bad GM, you’re probably not going to win anything anyway so it’s probably moot.

 

[Cellar-Door]

It’s a lot harder and requires more luck to build a “super team” with a very good/not mega star QB. A whole number of things have to go well over a 5-10 year span to get it to work. And it should also be noted that the examples of “super teams” which have gotten to the Super Bowl are NFC teams who haven’t had to go through a gauntlet of QB’s like the AFC currently has

You need to have above average draft results for a prolonged period of time

Multiple generational or hall of fame caliber players at key positions, sometimes acquired by impossible to predict trades (how often is a generational RB/offensive weapon like McCaffrey or a HOF LT like Williams available for cheap?). Even guys like AJ Brown don’t come along often in trades

Find a very good QB outside of round 1 (less than 5% chance)

Be able to overcome wasted 1st round picks (Trey Lance deal, Eagles taking Reagor and a couple others)

Find elite players in mid/late rounds of the draft (e.g. Kittle)

Have a fairly soft route to the Super Bowl

All that to come up short when going against a true elite QB

NY Giants are kind of an anomaly. As much as people dunk on Eli, he was a good QB capable of playing like an elite QB and had a perfect storm of stuff occurring to get him both those Super Bowl wins.

The idea that it’s easier or less risky to try to build out a roster with enough elite pieces to consistently overcome a significant QB gap just isn’t based in reality.

I also think people talk about it like these are two different approaches.... but usually they are actually just two different outcomes.

Every team is trying to build the best team they can around their QB, AND get the best QB they can.

SF didn't say "We want to build around a mid-QB", they said "our QB isn't good enough let's go get a star"... and it didn't work out but they lucked into a good one.
The Giants drafted Eli at the top of the draft and thought he was an elite QB.
The Eagles two titles... 1 they had a top drafted QB they thought was an MVP candidate (he briefly was) he got hurt and the backup went on an all-time heater. Second time they didn't have a shot at a top QB, so they settled and it worked out (briefly, who knows now that he's gonna get paid).
SEA.. couldn't get up high enough to get a QB, got super lucky with Wilson.
THat's what the entire last 15 years of teams that went to SBs without a top QB?

Edit- even the Patriots... they weren't trying to build around Brady, they took a shot on him because they needed a backup and MAYBE Bill had some concerns about the highly drafted Bledsoe.

 

[j44thor]

I think the "elite" vs. "non-elite" QB stuff gets blown out of proportion just a tad. Would anyone consider Justin Herbert to not be "elite" despite his zero playoff wins? How about Lamar Jackson and his 2-4 record with 1 AFC Championship loss or Josh Allen and his 5-5 playoff record with 1 AFC Champ loss. The reality is there is only one Patrick Mahomes in the league and if success vs. Patrick Mahomes is the measuring stick then I guess Joe Burrow is the only other "elite" QB in the NFL.

Reality is you need a complete team on both sides of the ball including high level QB play and also a D that can make some stops against other high level QBs.

 

[rodderick]

I think the "elite" vs. "non-elite" QB stuff gets blown out of proportion just a tad. Would anyone consider Justin Herbert to not be "elite" despite his zero playoff wins? How about Lamar Jackson and his 2-4 record with 1 AFC Championship loss or Josh Allen and his 5-5 playoff record with 1 AFC Champ loss. The reality is there is only one Patrick Mahomes in the league and if success vs. Patrick Mahomes is the measuring stick then I guess Joe Burrow is the only other "elite" QB in the NFL.

Reality is you need a complete team on both sides of the ball including high level QB play and also a D that can make some stops against other high level QBs.

All of those other guys are elite and all of them individually would make a contending NFC team the favorite to be in the Super Bowl. Mahomes is a top 3 QB all time at age 29, he's an outlier in the way Brady was (even more so at this respective point in their careers). But those guys will win eventually, I'd bet on them more than I would on Purdy or Hurts.

 

[Saints Rest]

Wouldn't that be.... more reason to focus on ceiling? Very few players hit their ceiling, so the appeal of higher ceiling players is they can be much better without hitting their full ceiling.
But beyond that... look around the league, you succeed one of two ways....
1. You have an elite QB.... you're a contender as long as you have that QB, and can do a lot more with less at other positions.
2. You build a freakshow great roster with a competent and cheap QB. That gives you a window, though a shorter one.

If you can't being the great roster.... you need the highest ceiling QB you can get. If you're really lucky.... you get the high ceiling QB AND build out the roster while he's cheap. That gives you a window while he's still improving, then when you have to pay him he's developed hopefully into the kind of elite talent who can do more with less.

As others have noted, the ex post facto view of success may come from your two options, but in order to get there, you really are stuck with "pray your young QB outperforms expectations." It really doesn't matter whether your QB is 1-1, 1-3, 1-10, or 6-199, your success will come about because he has risen above expectations to hit his ceiling and then some. I think one could argue that the only QBs who have been successful while just hitting his expectations are Burrows and Peyton. Every one else exceeded.

So the better question is how best to set your young QB up to exceed expectations? And therein you have all the usual suspects: a creative OC, a protective OLine, quality receivers, a reliable TE, a good running game, a strong D. Eventually, your expectation-exceeding QB can overcome weaknesses in some of those areas, but pretty much every young QB will founder a bit when those areas are questionable.

 

[BaseballJones]

Whichever QB they pick, they'd damned well better (a) build an offense that maximizes his strengths, and (b) they do everything humanly possible to help him succeed.

I don't know what that all entails, but this is going to be a massive investment.

 

[Jimbodandy]

FWIW, the last couple of pages of discussion on this topic have been outstanding. Kudos to all of you.

 

[j44thor]

All of those other guys are elite and all of them individually would make a contending NFC team the favorite to be in the Super Bowl. Mahomes is a top 3 QB all time at age 29, he's an outlier in the way Brady was (even more so at this respective point in their careers). But those guys will win eventually, I'd bet on them more than I would on Purdy or Hurts.

Hurts put up 35pts and a combined 370 yards rushing and receiving vs. KC in the SB. No other QB in the NFL was going to do more than he did. They simply didn't have an answer on defense in the 4th Q.
Purdy and the 49ers went to OT vs. KC. This idea that you can't win with a Purdy or Hurts is ridiculous. No one has come closer than those two to beating Mahomes in the SB.

 

[rodderick]

Hurts put up 35pts and a combined 370 yards rushing and receiving vs. KC in the SB. No other QB in the NFL was going to do more than he did. They simply didn't have an answer on defense in the 4th Q.
Purdy and the 49ers went to OT vs. KC. This idea that you can't win with a Purdy or Hurts is ridiculous. No one has come closer than those two to beating Mahomes in the SB.

Who's saying you can't win with those guys? I'd just bet on the truly elite QBs to contend more consistently and have more title opportunities in the long run. Purdy and Hurts have had their runs in which the team was loaded, guys had career years all over, they performed at their best and they still couldn't pull it off. Why would I have more faith on them to deliver going forward than I would on Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert?

Not to mention Burrow actually beat Mahomes on the road in the playoffs (and came super close to beating him another time) and I'd argue Allen came at least as close as Purdy and Hurts did to beating him as well. Of course, all of the players I mentioned are in the AFC, so yeah, they won't really have a chance to defeat Mahomes in the Super Bowl.

 

[Jungleland]

Who's saying you can't win with those guys? I'd just bet on the truly elite QBs to contend more consistently and have more title opportunities in the long run. Purdy and Hurts have had their runs in which the team was loaded, guys had career years all over, they performed at their best and they still couldn't pull it off. Why would I have more faith on them to deliver going forward than I would on Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert?

Not to mention Burrow actually beat Mahomes on the road in the playoffs (and came super close to beating him another time) and I'd argue Allen came at least as close as Purdy and Hurts did to beating him as well. Of course, all of the players I mentioned are in the AFC, so yeah, they won't really have a chance to defeat Mahomes in the Super Bowl.

I don't disagree with your general point - that truly elite QBs will contend more consistently that merely good ones on great teams. That seems like kind of a foregone conclusion, the position has the most potential to singlehandedly elevate a team, and it seems likely that keeping 1 great player on a team for a decade is easier than fielding a 2024 49ers level rest-of-roster for a decade. But I'm with j44thor on looking at Hurts and Purdy's cases as not fantastic examples. (At the very least, and not to put words in your mouth, there have been times this argument has taken a shape less about contending consistently and more about contending at all, and I think both the '22 Eagles and '23 49ers are examples to the contrary.)

I look at it like this: Purdy/SF lost in OT in the Super Bowl, is that game's outcome all that informative at that point? The margin between champ and 'couldn't pull it off' is unbelievably tiny when we're talking tied at the end of regulation of the Super Bowl, I think it just as easily works as an argument that SF's 2023 roster construction was phenomenal as it does that it wasn't.

 

[Justthetippett]

I also think people talk about it like these are two different approaches.... but usually they are actually just two different outcomes.

Every team is trying to build the best team they can around their QB, AND get the best QB they can.

SF didn't say "We want to build around a mid-QB", they said "our QB isn't good enough let's go get a star"... and it didn't work out but they lucked into a good one.
The Giants drafted Eli at the top of the draft and thought he was an elite QB.
The Eagles two titles... 1 they had a top drafted QB they thought was an MVP candidate (he briefly was) he got hurt and the backup went on an all-time heater. Second time they didn't have a shot at a top QB, so they settled and it worked out (briefly, who knows now that he's gonna get paid).
SEA.. couldn't get up high enough to get a QB, got super lucky with Wilson.
THat's what the entire last 15 years of teams that went to SBs without a top QB?

Edit- even the Patriots... they weren't trying to build around Brady, they took a shot on him because they needed a backup and MAYBE Bill had some concerns about the highly drafted Bledsoe.

Not really. Flacco, Grossman, Peyton (in Denver)...these guys were also very middling in a SB season. There are definitely teams that say their QB is "as good as they can do" but not elite and they have to reinforce the team in other areas and, to what I think is a general point, get a bit lucky that it will all work out.

But no team has done this with a chance to pick an elite QB like the Pats this year. If you have that opportunity, you do it.

 

[j44thor]

Who's saying you can't win with those guys? I'd just bet on the truly elite QBs to contend more consistently and have more title opportunities in the long run. Purdy and Hurts have had their runs in which the team was loaded, guys had career years all over, they performed at their best and they still couldn't pull it off. Why would I have more faith on them to deliver going forward than I would on Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert?

Not to mention Burrow actually beat Mahomes on the road in the playoffs (and came super close to beating him another time) and I'd argue Allen came at least as close as Purdy and Hurts did to beating him as well. Of course, all of the players I mentioned are in the AFC, so yeah, they won't really have a chance to defeat Mahomes in the Super Bowl.

While Burrow technically beat Mahomes, which I alluded to earlier when I suggested he was the only other "elite" QB in the NFL, I'd argue it was the CIN defense that held KC to 3 pts in the 2nd half including an INT in OT and not Burrow and his 250 yds passing 2TDs and 1 INT that beat KC in that AFC Championship and it would have been the defense that beat KC the second time had they pulled it out in 22.

Point being you need a complete team these days. A high level QB like Herbert isn't going to win anything if he has no defense and poor OL.

I'm on record as hoping they pick a QB at 3. I'm also hoping they have a strong 3-5yr player acquisition plan because that is realistically how long it is going to take to turn around the roster on offense to truly compete with the top teams in the AFC because as we have seen a top QB doesn't win anything by themselves.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Not really. Flacco, Grossman, Peyton (in Denver)...these guys were also very middling in a SB season. There are definitely teams that say their QB is "as good as they can do" but not elite and they have to reinforce the team in other areas and, to what I think is a general point, get a bit lucky that it will all work out.

But no team has done this with a chance to pick an elite QB like the Pats this year. If you have that opportunity, you do it.

Yeah, but my point wasn't outcome it was plan. Peyton was a top 3 of all time QB that DEN added, he fell off a cliff, but that wasn't the plan. Flacco was a 1st round QB (2nd QB in his draft) on a rookie deal, Grossman was a 1st round QB (4th in his class) on his rookie deal in his first year as a starter after missing 2 years with major injuries. I wasn't outlining "top QB" as in their place in the heirarchy, but rather in approach. Those teams all had premium prospects or high end vets who were once premium prospects. It's why you take your 1st round QB shots.....
Most Superbowl QBs are one of:
1. Star QBs you draft in the 1st
2. Qbs you draft in the 1st who aren't stars but are on rookie deals
3. Former 1st round QBs who had success in the league and you traded for/signed
The smallest category is non-1st round QBs you got remarkably lucky with. And even of those guys... Tom Brady is the only one of the non-1st QBs to make a SB after his rookie deal.
If you want long term success the model basically is... draft a QB high... or get struck by lightning (late round QB becomes greatest ever while 100s of his peers fail).

You need a good team to be a SB contender.... but the better your QB is, the worse the rest can be at a much higher rate than the reverse... and if you don't get a star.... well once the rookie deal is over it's time to move on.

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

Hurts put up 35pts and a combined 370 yards rushing and receiving vs. KC in the SB. No other QB in the NFL was going to do more than he did. They simply didn't have an answer on defense in the 4th Q.
Purdy and the 49ers went to OT vs. KC. This idea that you can't win with a Purdy or Hurts is ridiculous. No one has come closer than those two to beating Mahomes in the SB.

I thought there was that one guy that did?

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1779993740477665725
View: https://twitter.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1779994101347242462

Pats meet with Penix
View: https://twitter.com/mikekadlick/status/1779994837585891829

QB Michael Penix Jr. is in Foxborough for a dinner with the #Patriots tonight, per
@RapSheet
. He’ll have an official pre-draft visit with the team tomorrow at Gillette Stadium. Notable, as this is New England’s first reported interest in the lefty signal caller. They didn’t meet with him at the NFL Combine and only sent Camren Williams to his Pro Day.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Obviously they want to cross the T's and dot the I's so its probably nothing, but a small part of me wonders if they just received that Godfather offer for their pick. Not sure why they waste their time after clearly not prioritizing him along with the other QBs in his tier.

 

[67YAZ]

I don’t understand the talking point that the Pats haven’t had interest in Penix when they had a contingent at the Senior Bowl all week. It makes sense that the Pats would spend the combine engaged with the players not T the Senior Bowl. The visit to Foxborough is a different level and suggest that they have a high level of interest, but the Pats have already seen Penix in person and up close for an extended period.

Anyway, too bad Al Davis isn’t around to draft Penix. Hes the perfect Al QB.

 

[twibnotes]

Whichever QB they pick, they'd damned well better (a) build an offense that maximizes his strengths, and (b) they do everything humanly possible to help him succeed.

I don't know what that all entails, but this is going to be a massive investment.

This is such a good point. It’s not just whom you pick; it’s how you setup your system and surrounding talent to support the talents of the qb you take

 

[lexrageorge]

Whichever QB they pick, they'd damned well better (a) build an offense that maximizes his strengths, and (b) they do everything humanly possible to help him succeed.

I don't know what that all entails, but this is going to be a massive investment.

If they don’t do the above, Wolf and possibly Mayo will be looking for jobs sooner rather than later. Only took them 2 down years to sour them on BB.

 

[snowmanny]

And they were 6-4 headed into Thanksgiving in the first of those years.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

I voted for trading down for picks and taking an OL. Nothing makes average QBs look better than average then a great OL, and given the uncertainty with the non-Williams QBs I'd lock down a stud OT if possible in this strong OT draft.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1779993740477665725
View: https://twitter.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1779994101347242462

Pats meet with Penix
View: https://twitter.com/mikekadlick/status/1779994837585891829

I am still a fan. Dude is a competitor and can sling a deep ball better than anyone else in the draft. I get the flaws - age, injuries and fit - but I am going to fascinated to see how he translates to the NFL. Maybe the pundits are right but they rarely are.

 

[Justthetippett]

Yeah, but my point wasn't outcome it was plan. Peyton was a top 3 of all time QB that DEN added, he fell off a cliff, but that wasn't the plan. Flacco was a 1st round QB (2nd QB in his draft) on a rookie deal, Grossman was a 1st round QB (4th in his class) on his rookie deal in his first year as a starter after missing 2 years with major injuries. I wasn't outlining "top QB" as in their place in the heirarchy, but rather in approach. Those teams all had premium prospects or high end vets who were once premium prospects. It's why you take your 1st round QB shots.....
Most Superbowl QBs are one of:
1. Star QBs you draft in the 1st
2. Qbs you draft in the 1st who aren't stars but are on rookie deals
3. Former 1st round QBs who had success in the league and you traded for/signed
The smallest category is non-1st round QBs you got remarkably lucky with. And even of those guys... Tom Brady is the only one of the non-1st QBs to make a SB after his rookie deal.
If you want long term success the model basically is... draft a QB high... or get struck by lightning (late round QB becomes greatest ever while 100s of his peers fail).

You need a good team to be a SB contender.... but the better your QB is, the worse the rest can be at a much higher rate than the reverse... and if you don't get a star.... well once the rookie deal is over it's time to move on.

I don’t think we (or Wolf) disagree. They will pick a QB. It will be in R1 this year. And I'm 99.9% sure it will be at #3. The trade back, load up, build from the outside in approach just does not apply to the current situation given this draft class. It's kept minds entertained for weeks going into the draft, but it won't happen.

 

[nighthob]

Not really. Flacco, Grossman, Peyton (in Denver)...these guys were also very middling in a SB season. There are definitely teams that say their QB is "as good as they can do" but not elite and they have to reinforce the team in other areas and, to what I think is a general point, get a bit lucky that it will all work out.

But no team has done this with a chance to pick an elite QB like the Pats this year. If you have that opportunity, you do it.

Except that unless they’re lucky the Pats really don’t. Being the third best in QB in a class doesn’t make a QB elite. Caleb Williams has a good chance to be elite. I’m warming on the thought that Maye might be able to do it. The other two? I just don’t see it. They’re far closer to Jalen Hurts than Joe Burrow. The problem is that NE doesn’t have the draft capital to put a great team around them. Saying “Oh well, in three years they can just do this again” doesn’t really work.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Except that unless they’re lucky the Pats really don’t. Being the third best in QB in a class doesn’t make a QB elite. Caleb Williams has a good chance to be elite. I’m warming on the thought that Maye might be able to do it. The other two? I just don’t see it. They’re far closer to Jalen Hurts than Joe Burrow. The problem is that NE doesn’t have the draft capital to put a great team around them. Saying “Oh well, in three years they can just do this again” doesn’t really work.

No team has the draft capital to build an elite from scratch in one offseason. But with a likely top 5 pick next year and two other top 70 picks this year, they can certainly add good pieces if they draft well.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I voted for trading down for picks and taking an OL. Nothing makes average QBs look better than average then a great OL, and given the uncertainty with the non-Williams QBs I'd lock down a stud OT if possible in this strong OT draft.

Problem being the Pats don’t have an average QB and you can’t win consistently in the NFL with an average QB

 

[Justthetippett]

Except that unless they’re lucky the Pats really don’t. Being the third best in QB in a class doesn’t make a QB elite. Caleb Williams has a good chance to be elite. I’m warming on the thought that Maye might be able to do it. The other two? I just don’t see it. They’re far closer to Jalen Hurts than Joe Burrow. The problem is that NE doesn’t have the draft capital to put a great team around them. Saying “Oh well, in three years they can just do this again” doesn’t really work.

Assessing QBs based on where they are in their class is pretty misleading. Classes aren't equal and the way the position and game has changed gives us what, 25 classes at most to compare? Both Maye and Daniels would be QB1 in many classes, so what does this really yield in terms of a projection? Both are widely viewed as excellent prospects on their own terms. The Pats may not have the draft capital to build a competitive team in one year, but they will over 2-3 years. I still think the trade back talk has been entertaining (and even worthwhile to consider) but I really doubt it will happen because...it basically never has. Maybe a Beatherd, Walsh, Belichick, Al Davis-type innovator would do it. I don't think Wolf is that guy, particularly in his first year as (de facto) GM.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

maybe. I'd say it's really just QB though, because the other way is he has Trent Williams' career. I think OT is the 2nd or 3rd most impactful position in football, definitely behind QB, arguably behind edge. The problem as always is.... if you don't have good QB play you're likely going to be bad no matter what.

Edit- if you look at the 49ers, they're really the only recent team that has had success with an approach other than "have a top early drafted QB" and their team is built around.... a top drafted LT and a top drafted Edge. They then added a top RB, some solid late 1st early 2nd WRs, etc. But the core of that team is the O-line and passrush.
Of course I wouldn't take Alt at 3, you need a QB and if not go to 6, hope he's there. If he's not you can always trade back again and get Fashanu or Fuaga.

But the vast majority of Trent Williams career was wasted in Washington. The 49ers got him for dirt cheap when he was coming off a major injury and disgruntled with Washington. Not really a strategy to replicate.

Most teams also can’t survive giving up huge draft capital for a total flop of a QB without it impacting their pipeline of talent (which it arguably did given the issues on the 49ers OL and some of their depth concerns on D)

The 49ers are an anomaly and not a winning strategy.

 

[nighthob]

Assessing QBs based on where they are in their class is pretty misleading. Classes aren't equal and the way the position and game has changed gives us what, 25 classes at most to compare? Both Maye and Daniels would be QB1 in many classes, so what does this really yield in terms of a projection? Both are widely viewed as excellent prospects on their own terms. The Pats may not have the draft capital to build a competitive team in one year, but they will over 2-3 years. I still think the trade back talk has been entertaining (and even worthwhile to consider) but I really doubt it will happen because...it basically never has. Maybe a Beatherd, Walsh, Belichick, Al Davis-type innovator would do it. I don't think Wolf is that guy, particularly in his first year as (de facto) GM.

Maye, maybe. Daniels? Well, he’d be QB1 next year. But I’d also make the remark that being QB1 in a class doesn’t make a QB elite. Daniels’s only elite trait is his running/speed. But he runs very recklessly as a very skinny QB who, due to age and frame, is unlikely to ever get big enough to sustain the hits he takes. He really is Hurts. And you need to pray that you can assemble enough talent around him before he gets expensive to get some contention out of him. He’s the guy you start looking to replace the day after you draft him.

 

[rsmith7]

BB had a "cheat" look at him when he was out there? Sent the word to Mayo.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Problem being the Pats don’t have an average QB and you can’t win consistently in the NFL with an average QB

Rome wasn't built in a day. Grab a cornerstone LT while you can. It's much more of a sure-thing and it's pretty critical for success.

 

[Sox Pride]

I'd rather go OT at 34 if Suamataia or Guyton is there. every year is loaded with WR talent now, OT much harder to find

I think both of them are gone in Rd 1.

 

[Sox Pride]

Obviously they want to cross the T's and dot the I's so its probably nothing, but a small part of me wonders if they just received that Godfather offer for their pick. Not sure why they waste their time after clearly not prioritizing him along with the other QBs in his tier.

I 100% want them to do their due diligence on all of the qb's. It's a big decision - one they'll probably get wrong. But not examining all their options would just be neglect and a huge red flag for me.

Gotta be prepared for all of the scenarios. What if for ever reason, Caleb Williams falls - etc.

I honestly feel like a trade-down for a haul would be best simply because of the odds of being right on these players is low - it pays to have as many shots as possible.
But I don't really want to pick any lower than 9 because I'd like Alt/one of the top 4 qbs/ one of the top wrs or Bowers. So the Minny picks aren't that enticing.

Some recent mocks having us trading down with Minny and then trading back up, but I'm not sure of the feasibility.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Rome wasn't built in a day. Grab a cornerstone LT while you can. It's much more of a sure-thing and it's pretty critical for success.

It’s not really “”much more” of a sure thing if we’re talking finding an elite player, and a “cornerstone LT” isn’t critical for success - a solid LT (think Solder) is important for success but solid LT are easier to find (relatively speaking) than top 10-15 QB’s

The vast majority of OT picks who go early never become “cornerstone” players

Going back 10 years (ignoring 2023 too early to tell) using the top 13 picks of each draft:

Fisher - solid but not a cornerstone
Joeckel - bust
L.Johnson - great albeit RT
Fluker - mediocre
Robinson - bust
Matthews - good
Lewan - solid not a cornerstone
Scherff - converted to G
Flowers - bust
Peat - solid not cornerstone
Stanley - solid but not cornerstone
Conklin - mediocre
Tunsil - great but traded
McGlinchey - mediocre
Thomas - great
Wills - solid not cornerstone
Becton - bust
Sewell - great not LT
Ekwonu- trending to bust
Neal - trending to bust
Cross - solid not cornerstone (yet?)

Of all of those guys, you have Tunsil and Matthews who became elite LT. Thomas, when healthy too. Sewell and Johnson who became elite RT. So 5/21 are franchise players

In the same time period for QB you had: Bortles, Winston, Mariota, Goff, Wentz, Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Murray, Jones, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields. Also 21 guys, and at least 4 franchise QB’s (certainly Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow) plus perhaps some combo of Goff/Tua/Murray/Houston era Watson/Mayfield depending on how you view those guys.

Long story short, your chances of landing an elite QB and elite OT aren’t really that different. And a “solid not elite” equivalent (say Kyler Murray vs Jack Conklin) is much more valuable and harder to find at QB. Both position groups have their share of outright duds although QB because of the nature of the position looks worse. You can be the 30th best tackle in the league (let’s say McGlinchy) and fall into the mediocre not outright bust category but anything less than a top 15 QB is probably a bust.

 

[BaseballJones]

ESPN article helping you pick the best QB for your team. What do you guys think of their ratings for accuracy, arm strength, mobility, and decision-making?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Tackles hit at a higher rate than QBs, but QBs hit at a much much lower rate anywhere else in the draft, and class quality year to year can vary a ton.

Basically to me the answer is you look at all the QBs and give them a yes/no on whether you think they can be a franchise QB at some point. If the answer is yes you take him at #3, if the answer is no you can try to get the most to trade down, but you need to know that you may not ever find a yes guy.

 

[Cellar-Door]

ESPN article helping you pick the best QB for your team. What do you guys think of their ratings for accuracy, arm strength, mobility, and decision-making?

View attachment 81087

These are ridiculously bad. First of all the decision-making grades are almost all way too high... like Bo Nix at an A? THat tells me the person doesn't understand the offense he's running because he's taking the single schemed throw, there are no decisions to make. Accuracy it's tough to say what they mean, but almost certainly these are mostly too high. If Maye (inconsistent) is a B-... sure I can see that.. but no way McCarthy is then an A... he misses a ton of outside throws to his left for the number he throws.

Mostly these are all trash, and the tool is dumb since it should give every team Caleb if given an option (I ran it... got Maye for New England with Caleb as an option)

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Obviously they want to cross the T's and dot the I's so its probably nothing, but a small part of me wonders if they just received that Godfather offer for their pick. Not sure why they waste their time after clearly not prioritizing him along with the other QBs in his tier.

And at a minimum they could get a crazy offer on draft night that pushes their first pick to the next tier of QBs, so exhausting the Penix evaluation is a prudent use of a top 30 visit.

I doubt they love the player in vaccuum, or that the visit will move the needle too much, but there is so much equity riding on the QB position - and those intangibles that are tougher to assess from afar are more important than for other positions - that I’m good with this over hosting the fourth corner or sixth OT.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I think both of them are gone in Rd 1.

Based on the last few rankings that I've checked...
Suamataia: 35, 44, 61
Guyton: 30, 30, 29

Depends on where the runs on OT happen, but decent chance that Suamataia is available at 34. More likely than not that Guyton is gone though.

 

[BaseballJones]

These are ridiculously bad. First of all the decision-making grades are almost all way too high... like Bo Nix at an A? THat tells me the person doesn't understand the offense he's running because he's taking the single schemed throw, there are no decisions to make. Accuracy it's tough to say what they mean, but almost certainly these are mostly too high. If Maye (inconsistent) is a B-... sure I can see that.. but no way McCarthy is then an A... he misses a ton of outside throws to his left for the number he throws.

Mostly these are all trash, and the tool is dumb since it should give every team Caleb if given an option (I ran it... got Maye for New England with Caleb as an option)

Yeah that's what I thought too.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Seems like maybe the draft is close enough for a poll about what we think will happen. Not what we want to happen, which I think has been the focus so far, but just a prediction.

Daniels at 3, Maye at 3, Someone else at 3, or Trade.

But I don't really want to start yet another thread if people think it's covered already in the existing threads.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Saying Maye is a B for mobility is almost as ridiculous as saying JJM is an A in decision-making. His processing is not that good, and Maye's athleticism and escapability is part of WHY he is an elite prospect. The combination of a strong arm, the ability to create plays AND to be mobile at his size is why he's considered a top prospect. Ridiculous, but...ESPN gonna ESPN.

 

[Justthetippett]

These are ridiculously bad. First of all the decision-making grades are almost all way too high... like Bo Nix at an A? THat tells me the person doesn't understand the offense he's running because he's taking the single schemed throw, there are no decisions to make. Accuracy it's tough to say what they mean, but almost certainly these are mostly too high. If Maye (inconsistent) is a B-... sure I can see that.. but no way McCarthy is then an A... he misses a ton of outside throws to his left for the number he throws.

Mostly these are all trash, and the tool is dumb since it should give every team Caleb if given an option (I ran it... got Maye for New England with Caleb as an option)

It's clickbaity trash but ESPN is not really after the same fan as PFF etc. They want to drag in the casual fan to dabble in fantasy, etc. It's sad given where they started but it's probably the better business decision the MBAs in management figured out. IDK.

The only really interesting thing to me is that the JJM hype train just keeps rolling.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Tackles hit at a higher rate than QBs, but QBs hit at a much much lower rate anywhere else in the draft, and class quality year to year can vary a ton.

Basically to me the answer is you look at all the QBs and give them a yes/no on whether you think they can be a franchise QB at some point. If the answer is yes you take him at #3, if the answer is no you can try to get the most to trade down, but you need to know that you may not ever find a yes guy.

What happens with QB drafting after the top of the first round? Do teams tend to draft them appropriately or overdraft them in, say, the bottom of round 1 and rounds 2 and 3. Obviously it depends on the evaluation of the individual player, but do teams tend to draft those QBs too high?

 

[Cellar-Door]

What happens with QB drafting after the top of the first round? Do teams tend to draft them appropriately or overdraft them in, say, the bottom of round 1 and rounds 2 and 3. Obviously it depends on the evaluation of the individual player, but do teams tend to draft those QBs too high?

Hard to say, but there recently has been a trend that if you don't get a guy in round 1 (or very top of 2) they usually fall to like the 4th. Part of it is an admission that if you think a guy is a real starter at QB he should go early. Usually it seems like QBs either go up or down, there isn;t usually an even distribution like other positions.

 

[Curt S Loew]

Cross posting from Draft Subforum. Busy day for Washington.

View: https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/1780258694531543239?t=xRTvpi2IQmwHcPuYp6P7NQ&s=19

 

[BigJimEd]

Interesting approach

 

[rodderick]

Cross posting from Draft Subforum. Busy day for Washington.

View: https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/1780258694531543239?t=xRTvpi2IQmwHcPuYp6P7NQ&s=19

This seems strange to me, is that common? Especially among prospects that play the same position?

 

[Van Everyman]

Curran, Breer and Perry did a podcast last week comparing pros and cons of Maye, Daniels and McCarthy and the general consensus was the Pats should take Maye. That’s all I got.

There is a piece of me that wishes we could go MHJ. I get why we wouldn’t but still.