What does 2023 look like?

[8slim]

They swept an Aaron Judge-less Yankees team and have won 2 against an under .500 Minnesota team that looks absolutely dead in the water. They are playing good baseball, but I'm not ready to get excited about them yet because they have not shown one bit of consistency. Let's see if they can continue this kind of play. One advantage they have is the schedule. From now until July 25th, they have only 9 of 26 games against teams that are currently over .500 and those are all in a row(3 vs. Miami, 3 at Toronto, 3 vs. Texas). In that stretch they'll have 6 games against Oakland, 3 each against the Cubs/White Sox/Mets, and the 2 remaining games with the Twins.

Meh. Life is short. Get excited. If they flop, whatever, we can savage them then. But for now, I’m thrilled they’re winning games.

*edit* It really feels like some folks would rather be “right” in their proclamations of doom than see the Sox win. I don’t get that at all.

I also don’t get the whole “I’m withholding enthusiasm until they prove they deserve it” sentiment. Just enjoy things when they’re going well. Who cares if they’re “for real”? Take pleasure in the wins and if they collapse, so be it. Move on, check out, do something else with your time. Is one really going to suffer mental anguish if you start to “believe” in the Sox and then they start losing? It’s baseball and we’re adults. Come on.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Yes, of course. But then, Wong is just now coming into his own. Verdugo has been pretty solid his whole time with Boston:

2019: 2.1 bWAR
2020: 2.3 bWAR
2021: 1.1 bWAR
2022: 2.8 bWAR

Not a superstar by any means, but a solid MLB player.

Solid for sure. I think most of us where hoping that he would become an All-Star level player (not an MVP like Mookie, but a solidly above-average player) when the trade was made. This year he may be reaching that level.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Also have to add in Downs -0.6 last year

Yikes, totally forgot about him.

 

[BaseballJones]

Yikes, totally forgot about him.

As did I. Oops.

 

[Fishy1]

Jury's still out on the Mookie Trade, and I agree on all of the stuff on Dugo (playing like a well above-average starter now, but needs to sustain it) but some things that would be clarifying and that I'm looking for from Wong:

He's got a major reverse split and needs to show he can hit lefties a little before we label him a "starting catcher." He's been utterly miserable against them so far in his career (a .498 OPS).

Unfortunately Mcguire is actually worse than Wong against RHP for his career, so platooning them is kind of silly.

If Wong wants to be really good, he'll have to cut down on that chase rate at least marginally and whiff less. The good news is he can't get much worse on that front. Bottom 10% in K-rate, bottom 20% in Whiff, and bottom 30% in Chase. Exit velocity and barrel % are solidly above average, though.

Statcast has Wong in the bottom 10% for framing, fwiw, but obviously he's got great pop time and a good arm.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yikes, totally forgot about him.

Probably for the best.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Do you think that - if we accept the premise that the Sox were wise to trade Mookie instead of getting nothing for him when he walked as a FA - Wong and Verdugo might just be turning out to be a pretty nice return?

They need to put up multiple years of this kind of play to even enter the conversation that it was a pretty nice return.

 

[BaseballJones]

They need to put up multiple years of this kind of play to even enter the conversation that it was a pretty nice return.

Okie dokie.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Meh. Life is short. Get excited. If they flop, whatever, we can savage them then. But for now, I’m thrilled they’re winning games.

*edit* It really feels like some folks would rather be “right” in their proclamations of doom than see the Sox win. I don’t get that at all.

I also don’t get the whole “I’m withholding enthusiasm until they prove they deserve it” sentiment. Just enjoy things when they’re going well. Who cares if they’re “for real”? Take pleasure in the wins and if they collapse, so be it. Move on, check out, do something else with your time.

It's certainly giving me something to watch.

 

[8slim]

It's certainly giving me something to watch.

Good.

 

[simplicio]

They need to put up multiple years of this kind of play to even enter the conversation that it was a pretty nice return.

Only if we live in a hypothetical fantasy world where Mookie extended in Boston.

 

[Max Power]

2023 looks just like 2022, 2021, and 2020, where every thread devolves into a rehashing of the Mookie trade. Maybe next year will be different. (It won't)

 

[Al Zarilla]

Here's a fun dumb stat.

Doubles per pitch (min. 200 pitches, Savant):

1. Duran 2.7% (2.7 doubles per 100 pitches)
2. Seager 2.6%
3. Duvall 2.6%
4. T. Murphy 2.5%
5. Moniak 2.4%
6. Grichuk 2.3%
7. Isbel 2.3%
8. McGuire 2.2%
9. Daza 2.2%
10. Wong 2.2%
11. Arroyo 2.1%

The Red Sox are always way up there in team doubles because of the monstah. That doesn't account for Duran though. Any single to the outfield for him that is between outfielders is game for stretching into a double. Opposing outfielders must be like "oh shit, this guy?" when he comes up. I don't remember another Sox speedster, Ellsbury, doing this.

 

[BaseballJones]

2023 looks just like 2022, 2021, and 2020, where every thread devolves into a rehashing of the Mookie trade. Maybe next year will be different. (It won't)

Probably not because Mookie was SUCH a dynamic and important player for the Sox - not to mention beloved.

Imagine if SOSH was around when the Sox traded Ruth?

 

[nvalvo]

Sorry to have started this relitigation, but I will add (as I do every time) that the baseline for evaluating such trades is not actually the star player’s subsequent performance on his next contract. That might be relevant for evaluating the *decision* to trade the star player at all, but not when evaluating the return.

For the latter, the comparison is to other trades of star players with one year of control remaining, and this return is way better than almost all of those in recent years: Goldschmidt, Machado, etc. The better hauls for star players (Soto, Castillo) almost universally involve more control remaining.

It may seem weird to split up the evaluation this way, but I think you really have to. The former decision is so implicated in larger organizational considerations — competitive window, payroll, farm system — that it is not really commensurable to any obvious comps. Once negotiations for an extension go beyond what makes sense for the organization, the relevant yardstick for the trade return is the championship probability added by the player in the remaining period of control and the draft compensation.

 

[8slim]

Probably not because Mookie was SUCH a dynamic and important player for the Sox - not to mention beloved.

Imagine if SOSH was around when the Sox traded Ruth?

“The guy is a huge injury risk carrying all that weight, and if the Yankees aren’t gonna have him pitch I think we dodged a huge bullet!”

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

“The guy is a huge injury risk carrying all that weight, and if the Yankees aren’t gonna have him pitch I think we dodged a huge bullet!”

IIRC at the time of that sale the local papers were all firmly in Frazee's pocket corner about the sale. They universally said it was good to get rid of Ruth.

Which goes to show not much has really changed in the sports media scene over the years.

 

[chrisfont9]

They swept an Aaron Judge-less Yankees team and have won 2 against an under .500 Minnesota team that looks absolutely dead in the water. They are playing good baseball, but I'm not ready to get excited about them yet because they have not shown one bit of consistency. Let's see if they can continue this kind of play. One advantage they have is the schedule. From now until July 25th, they have only 9 of 26 games against teams that are currently over .500 and those are all in a row(3 vs. Miami, 3 at Toronto, 3 vs. Texas). In that stretch they'll have 6 games against Oakland, 3 each against the Cubs/White Sox/Mets, and the 2 remaining games with the Twins.

All of what you say is true. Personally I think this is the inevitable balancing of luck -- they've faced a TON of tough pitchers, tough teams etc., and even when the bad teams come in they seem to be on an upswing. Colorado was coming off a few nice wins, took 2/3 and then completely fell apart again. Thanks (assholes).

But! The Sox' pitching was the real deal before the Yankee and Twin series. Also both those teams pitch well and the Sox have been dismantling them on offense. What we are seeing is real. Just maybe not "up 10 in the 7th" real.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

“The guy is a huge injury risk carrying all that weight, and if the Yankees aren’t gonna have him pitch I think we dodged a huge bullet!”

"He wants more money than the President? Maybe if we stick a player option in there he'll be worth the contract."

 

[cantor44]

IIRC at the time of that sale the local papers were all firmly in Frazee's pocket corner about the sale. They universally said it was good to get rid of Ruth.

Which goes to show not much has really changed in the sports media scene over the years.

As a side note - I'm right now doing a play at the Longacre Theater, which Frazee himself built!

 

[nighthob]

IIRC at the time of that sale the local papers were all firmly in Frazee's pocket corner about the sale. They universally said it was good to get rid of Ruth.

Which goes to show not much has really changed in the sports media scene over the years.

If only Frazee had completed the ensuing trade, and switched cities with the Yankees.

 

[Blizzard of 1978]

They swept an Aaron Judge-less Yankees team and have won 2 against an under .500 Minnesota team that looks absolutely dead in the water. They are playing good baseball, but I'm not ready to get excited about them yet because they have not shown one bit of consistency. Let's see if they can continue this kind of play. One advantage they have is the schedule. From now until July 25th, they have only 9 of 26 games against teams that are currently over .500 and those are all in a row(3 vs. Miami, 3 at Toronto, 3 vs. Texas). In that stretch they'll have 6 games against Oakland, 3 each against the Cubs/White Sox/Mets, and the 2 remaining games with the Twins.

So if all goes as planned with those upcoming under. 500 teams we will find the Red Sox will be buyers at the trading deadline.

 

[ookami7m]

Probably not because Mookie was SUCH a dynamic and important player for the Sox - not to mention beloved.

Imagine if SOSH was around when the Sox traded Ruth?

To be fair, Nomar was as or more dynamic and beloved on the Sox in his time and I don't recall nearly the continual re-hashes of his departure. I'm sure the events of 3 months later had something to do with that, but even as we languished through Renteria and Lugo, it was not nearly as loud.

 

[BaseballJones]

To be fair, Nomar was as or more dynamic and beloved on the Sox in his time and I don't recall nearly the continual re-hashes of his departure. I'm sure the events of 3 months later had something to do with that, but even as we languished through Renteria and Lugo, it was not nearly as loud.

Well, two things: (1) He was, by the end of his time in Boston, seemingly a major malcontent. Even very pro-Nomar guys (like me) were like, uh, I think this guy needs to play elsewhere, for the good of Nomar and the good of the team. And (2) yeah, winning the WS showed it to be a good move and so it's difficult to complain about it.

 

[rodderick]

To be fair, Nomar was as or more dynamic and beloved on the Sox in his time and I don't recall nearly the continual re-hashes of his departure. I'm sure the events of 3 months later had something to do with that, but even as we languished through Renteria and Lugo, it was not nearly as loud.

Nomar was in his 9th season with the Sox, wasn't great in 2004 and wasn't really a good player in the aftermath. I don't think he's comparable to Mookie because Mookie was still so young, in his prime, and it was not only easy to project him having multiple production seasons with the Sox, he's done that with the Dodgers. I think Nomar's much more comparable to Xander, and I'm not seeing a ton of people rehashing his departure considering the subpar season he's having (at least offensively) for the Padres, even as the Sox start Kike Hernandez.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Nomar was in his 9th season with the Sox, wasn't great in 2004 and wasn't really a good player in the aftermath. I don't think he's comparable to Mookie because Mookie was still so young, in his prime, and it was not only easy to project him having multiple production seasons with the Sox, he's done that with the Dodgers. I think Nomar's much more comparable to Xander, and I'm not seeing a ton of people rehashing his departure considering the subpar season he's having (at least offensively) for the Padres, even as the Sox start Kike Hernandez.

In some ways Vaughn is a more similar comp to Xander (so far it seems). Fan-favorite who also trended down from great to good on leaving for Free Agency, then had his career shortened by injuries.

 

[YTF]

As a side note - I'm right now doing a play at the Longacre Theater, which Frazee himself built!

For some reason I find myself reading your posts with an English accent. I'm not sure if it's your phrasing, your avatar or a bit of both, but I love it.

 

[JM3]

Feels like this conversation with Verdugo is something that should happen...

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1671538059005812739


5/$90m?

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Roster moves

Alex Speier
@alexspeier

Sox expecting a series of roster moves: Verdugo to bereavement list, McGuire to IL, Hamilton and Walter called up, Yu Chang to 60-day IL


10:02am · 22 Jun 2023 · Twitter for iPhone

 

[YTF]

It sucks that Chang's been moved to the 60 day, but at least we know that Yu isn't part of the near term SS solution.

 

[LogansDad]

It sucks that Chang's been moved to the 60 day, but at least we know that Yu isn't part of the near term SS solution.

He's already at 58 days.

 

[8slim]

12-12 in June. Needless to say, I really want this team to do well. But man, they just can’t seem to string together more than a week of good ball before they fall apart again.

 

[bosockboy]

12-12 in June. Needless to say, I really want this team to do well. But man, they just can’t seem to string together more than a week of good ball before they fall apart again.

I think the biggest culprit is injuries; but that’s part of the game.

 

[koufax32]

12-12 in June. Needless to say, I really want this team to do well. But man, they just can’t seem to string together more than a week of good ball before they fall apart again.

Story’s return to health will help, but man this team needs some more RH punch. That might be a higher priority than SP going into next season.

 

[Rovin Romine]

12-12 in June. Needless to say, I really want this team to do well. But man, they just can’t seem to string together more than a week of good ball before they fall apart again.

If only the org had someone could figure out how to coach pitchers to pitch to Luis Robert. . .or had someone to manage the lineups and pitchers in a game.

So I propose three new positions to address those things: the Coach of Pitchers, the Lineup Manager, and the Pitcher's Manager.

Since Alex Cora gets $8M a year for "tipping his cap" and saying "we know we're better than this," these guys should be paid accordingly.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

To be fair, Nomar was as or more dynamic and beloved on the Sox in his time and I don't recall nearly the continual re-hashes of his departure. I'm sure the events of 3 months later had something to do with that, but even as we languished through Renteria and Lugo, it was not nearly as loud.

Also because Nomar fell off a cliff. According to this 2014 article - https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/24298/skewed-left-the-nomar-garciaparra-trade-turns-ten/ - there were 40 players who had 5+ seasons of 5+ WARP before turning 30. Nomar had the least amount of total WARP post-30 of all fo them (4 players were still playing at the time) with 3.5 total WARP. (Andruw Jones had 4.0 total WARP after 30 and then the next lowest was Ernie Banks at 12.1 total WARP.)

 

[tims4wins]

Quoting myself from the Chaim thread but it’s been a lather rinse repeat cycle for a while now.

This team has had fits and starts for the last few years. It was an encouraging series, but I fully expect them to hover around .500 all year. Hope they prove me wrong!

 

[soxhop411]

12-12 in June. Needless to say, I really want this team to do well. But man, they just can’t seem to string together more than a week of good ball before they fall apart again.

Agreed. But, on the flip side..
I think its pretty clear by now, that this is not the MLB of the early 2000’s. And spending an obscene amount of money for FA in one offseason (looking at you PHI,NYM,SD) guarantees you nothing.

SD and NYM fans are ready to run their teams out of town right now. Thats after they both spent more money than the GDP of a small country this offseason

And both have sub 500 records as of today

 

[8slim]

Agreed. But, on the flip side..
I think its pretty clear by now, that this is not the MLB of the early 2000’s. And spending an obscene amount of money for FA in one offseason (looking at you PHI,NYM,SD) guarantees you nothing.

SD and NYM fans are ready to run their teams out of town right now. Thats after they both spent more money than the GDP of a small country this offseason

And both have sub 500 records as of today

I certainly wasn’t shaking my fist and asking for the heads of Bloom and Cora. Just noting that this seems to be the mediocre team we were hoping they weren’t. I really don’t care that the Mets and Padres are also mediocre. They at least have the talent on paper to not be, if not this season, then next. Not sure we can say the same thing.

 

[8slim]

I think the biggest culprit is injuries; but that’s part of the game.

Like you said, it’s part of the game. Past Sox editions have had guys step up when injuries strike.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Like you said, it’s part of the game. Past Sox editions have had guys step up when injuries strike.

This edition of the Sox have had guys step up when injuries strike too. Duran stepped up for an injured Duvall. Crawford is stepping up for an injured (take your pick of Sale or Houck). Winckowski has stepped up for an injured Schreiber. Chang and Reyes both stepped up before they got hurt.

One could make a case that with the injuries they've had up the middle this year, 40-39 is a fairly good result so far.

 

[8slim]

This edition of the Sox have had guys step up when injuries strike too. Duran stepped up for an injured Duvall. Crawford is stepping up for an injured (take your pick of Sale or Houck). Winckowski has stepped up for an injured Schreiber. Chang and Reyes both stepped up before they got hurt.

One could make a case that with the injuries they've had up the middle this year, 40-39 is a fairly good result so far.

Yes, that has happened, a few guys have done well when pressed into service.. But I don’t think 40-39 is a “fairly good result”. It’s the result a lot of us anticipated.

Again, I’m not calling for anyone’s head. It’s just a bummer this team can’t play well for more than a week before crashing.

 

[AB in DC]

It’s just a bummer this team can’t play well for more than a week before crashing.

But that's really just baseball, isn't it? Other than the Rays and Rangers, and the massively overacheiving Os, no AL team is better than 42-36 right now, which is a whopping two games ahead of the Sox.

(edit: sorry, that's before today's games)

 

[8slim]

But that's really just baseball, isn't it? Other than the Rays and Rangers, and the massively overacheiving Os, no AL team is better than 42-36 right now, which is a whopping two games ahead of the Sox.

(edit: sorry, that's before today's games)

I didn’t think what I said was at all controversial. Three teams are considerably better than the Sox, and another 4 teams are “better enough” to be ahead of them for the playoffs. That’s half the league. Half the season has gone by and we’re a mediocre team that can’t seem to get over the hump to stay “a few games better than mediocre” for more than a week.

*edit* It seems like some folks are really bending over backwards to say that our first half performance has been perfectly OK. Personally I was hoping we’d be a smidge better. If we want to make the playoffs we need to play at least several more games over .500 in the second half, and to date we haven’t been able to do that.

 

[bosockboy]

I didn’t think what I said was at all controversial. Three teams are considerably better than the Sox, and another 4 teams are “better enough” to be ahead of them for the playoffs. That’s half the league. Half the season has gone by and we’re a mediocre team that can’t seem to get over the hump to stay “a few games better than mediocre” for more than a week.

*edit* It seems like some folks are really bending over backwards to say that our first half performance has been perfectly OK. Personally I was hoping we’d be a smidge better. If we want to make the playoffs we need to play at least several more games over .500 in the second half, and to date we haven’t been able to do that.

All true, and I haven’t referenced our opponents schedules, but we have 13 with Oakland and KC. Cleaning those out are absolutely necessary.

 

[Sin Duda]

All true, and I haven’t referenced our opponents schedules, but we have 13 with Oakland and KC. Cleaning those out are absolutely necessary.

It's frustrating that the Sox can't do significantly better against below .500 clubs. It shows them to be a mediocre team themselves, but I'm still hoping July/Aug reinforcements (Story, Houck, Schreiber, and Sale) bump this team up to a .600 club. We will see if it happens, and if so, if it's enough.

 

[streeter88]

I didn’t think what I said was at all controversial. Three teams are considerably better than the Sox, and another 4 teams are “better enough” to be ahead of them for the playoffs. That’s half the league. Half the season has gone by and we’re a mediocre team that can’t seem to get over the hump to stay “a few games better than mediocre” for more than a week.

*edit* It seems like some folks are really bending over backwards to say that our first half performance has been perfectly OK. Personally I was hoping we’d be a smidge better. If we want to make the playoffs we need to play at least several more games over .500 in the second half, and to date we haven’t been able to do that.

All reasonable. While I am still smarting over the reaction to my “comfortably in last place” comment of a week ago - which I agree was a bit more controversial than what you said above - the Red Sox are really not contending as it stands currently.

Which is a bit tragic, because their starters are humming, bullpen is reasonable, offense often good, but they are let down by bad defense and maybe poor coaching. Lots of posters smarter than me are debating that last point so I won’t insist on it, but why are the Sox able to beat the good teams generally, but then consistently lose 2 of 3 to teams like the Rockies, Cardinals or White Sox?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Yes, that has happened, a few guys have done well when pressed into service.. But I don’t think 40-39 is a “fairly good result”. It’s the result a lot of us anticipated.

Again, I’m not calling for anyone’s head. It’s just a bummer this team can’t play well for more than a week before crashing.

That was kinda my point. We expected them to be a roughly .500 team and despite injuries at some key spots, they're still where we figured they'd be. I find that suggestive. Like if they can get and stay healthy for a reasonable stretch, they can make some noise. Of course, that's a big mother effing IF.

 

[Niastri]

I didn’t think what I said was at all controversial. Three teams are considerably better than the Sox, and another 4 teams are “better enough” to be ahead of them for the playoffs. That’s half the league. Half the season has gone by and we’re a mediocre team that can’t seem to get over the hump to stay “a few games better than mediocre” for more than a week.

*edit* It seems like some folks are really bending over backwards to say that our first half performance has been perfectly OK. Personally I was hoping we’d be a smidge better. If we want to make the playoffs we need to play at least several more games over .500 in the second half, and to date we haven’t been able to do that.

The glimpses of a good team we keep on getting, while overall being on the outside looking in, is a hard place to be.

I am torn between trading everybody we can to load up for next year and going for it now.

Sweeping the Yankees last week had me really excited, the results this week not so much.

We really need the proverbial 10 game winning streak to make it clear which way we should go. (Or a 10 game losing streak)

My biggest complaint about Bloome so far is his lack of a concrete decision to sell last year, and we could be looking at exactly the same scenario this year, with all the top notch injured guys "a few weeks away" and us "only" a couple games out of the wild card.

Man it would be less stressful to go into the deadline knowing whether we'll be buyers or sellers for once.

 

[8slim]

That was kinda my point. We expected them to be a roughly .500 team and despite injuries at some key spots, they're still where we figured they'd be. I find that suggestive. Like if they can get and stay healthy for a reasonable stretch, they can make some noise. Of course, that's a big mother effing IF.

Fair enough. I don’t expect them to “stay healthy” because very few teams ever stay healthy for long stretches. There’s always a few guys ailing. Plus, who knows what we can reasonably expect from Story when he returns. Same for Sale.

I’m genuinely hoping for the best. I really want to watch vaguely meaningful ball in August.